# MGIC INVESTMENT CORP (MTG) FY 2022 MD&A

Verbatim Item 7 Management's Discussion and Analysis from MGIC INVESTMENT CORP's 10-K for fiscal year 2022.

SEC filing source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/876437/000087643723000013/mtg-20221231.htm
Accession: 0000876437-23-000013
Filing date: 2023-02-22
Report date: 2022-12-31
Extracted structurally from real Item 7 body heading to real Item 7A/8 boundary. Published MD&A gate trimmed front/tail over-capture.
Confidence: high

Company profile: /company/MTG/
All MD&A years: /company/MTG/mda/
Previous year: /company/MTG/mda/fy2021/ (FY 2021)
Next year: /company/MTG/mda/fy2023/ (FY 2023)

Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

INTRODUCTION

As used below, “we” and “our” refer to MGIC Investment Corporation’s consolidated operations or to MGIC Investment Corporation, as a separate entity, as the context requires. References to "we" and "our" in the context of debt obligations refer to MGIC Investment Corporation. See the "Glossary of terms and acronyms" for definitions and descriptions of terms used throughout this annual report. The Risk Factors contained in Item 1A discuss trends and uncertainties affecting us and are an integral part of the MD&A.

The following is a discussion and analysis of the financial conditions and results of operations for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, including comparisons between 2022 and 2021. Comparisons between 2021 and 2020 have been omitted from this Form 10-K, but can be found in "Item 7 - Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021 filed with the SEC.

Forward Looking and Other Statements

As discussed under “Forward Looking Statements and Risk Factors” in Item 1A of Part 1 of this Report, actual results may differ materially from the results contemplated by forward looking statements. We are not undertaking any obligation to update any forward looking statements or other statements we may make in the following discussion or elsewhere in this document even though these statements may be affected by events or circumstances occurring after the forward looking statements or other statements were made. Therefore, no reader of this document should rely on these statements being current as of any time other than the time at which this document was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

MGIC Investment Corporation 2022 Form 10-K | 42

OVERVIEW

This Overview of the MD&A highlights selected information and may not contain all of the information that is important to readers of this Annual Report. Hence, this Overview is qualified by the information that appears elsewhere in this Annual Report, including the other portions of the MD&A.

Through MGIC, the principal subsidiary of MGIC Investment Corporation, we serve lenders throughout the United States helping families achieve homeownership sooner by making affordable low-down-payment mortgages a reality through the use of private mortgage insurance. At December 31, 2022 MGIC had $295.3 billion of primary IIF.

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(1)See "Explanation and Reconciliation of our use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures."

SUMMARY OF 2022 FINANCIAL RESULTS

Net income of $865.3 million for 2022 increased by $230.4 million when compared to the prior year, and diluted income per share of $2.79 increased by 51% when compared to the prior year. The increase in net income primarily reflects a decrease in losses incurred, partially offset by a higher provision for income taxes and other underwriting and operating expenses, net. Diluted income per share increased due to an increase in net income and a decrease in the number of diluted weighted average shares outstanding.

Adjusted net operating income for 2022 was $904.8 million (2021: $658.6 million) and adjusted net operating income per diluted share was $2.91 (2021: $1.91). Adjusted net operating income for 2022 and 2021 included adjustments for a loss on debt extinguishment and net realized investment gains (losses).

Losses incurred, net were $(254.6) million, a decrease of $319.1 million compared with losses incurred of $64.6 million for the prior year. While new delinquency notices added approximately $149.6 million to losses incurred in 2022, our re-estimation of loss reserves on previously received delinquency notices resulted in favorable development of approximately $404.1 million, primarily related to a decrease in the estimated claim rate on delinquencies. The favorable development primarily resulted from greater than expected cure rates, as borrower reinstatements and servicer mitigation efforts resulted in more cures than originally estimated. Additionally, home price

appreciation experienced in recent years has allowed borrowers to cure their delinquencies through the sale of their property. In 2021, new delinquency notices added approximately $124.6 million to losses incurred, while our re-estimation of loss reserves on previously received delinquency notices resulted in $60 million of favorable loss development primarily due to the decrease in the claim rate on delinquencies received prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. This was offset by the recognition of a probable loss of $6.3 million related to litigation of our claims paying practices and adverse development on LAE reserves and reinsurance.

The increase in our provision for income taxes to $224.7 million in 2022 compared to $166.8 million in 2021 was primarily due to an increase in income before tax. Our effective tax rate for 2022 was 20.6% compared to 20.8% for 2021.

Other underwriting and operating expenses, net increased to $236.7 million in 2022 from $198.4 million in 2021 primarily due to higher expenses related to our technology investments, particularly in data and analytics, and an increase in pension expense. Pension expenses increased in 2022 as a result of settlement accounting charges during 2022.

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BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Economic conditions

Due to higher interest rates and higher home prices in 2022, there was a decrease in home purchases in 2022 after a strong 2021. Higher interest rates also decreased refinance activity during 2022, after a robust 2021. This resulted in a decrease in our NIW, to $76.4 billion in 2022 when compared to $120.2 billion in 2021.

The level of interest rates, and home prices may change in the future. For the possible effects of such changes, see our risk factors titled "If the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations declines, the amount of insurance that we write could decline,” “Downturns in the domestic economy or declines in home prices may result in more homeowners defaulting and our losses increasing, with a corresponding decrease in our returns,” and “Changes in interest rates, house prices or mortgage insurance cancellation requirements may change the length of time that our policies remain in force."

Mortgage insurance market

The past several years of favorable housing fundamentals and in our view, generally favorable risk characteristics of our recently insured loans contributed to a growing insurance in force. Higher interest rates and home prices, resulted in a decrease in our NIW in 2022 when compared to 2021.

The percentage of our NIW with DTI ratios over 45% and LTV's over 95% increased in 2022 when compared with 2021. The increase was primarily driven by higher home prices and interest rates, and a higher percentage of NIW from purchase transactions.

Refer to "Mortgage Insurance Portfolio" for additional discussion of changes in our NIW mix during 2022.

Competition

PMI. The private mortgage insurance industry is highly competitive and is expected to remain so. We believe that we currently compete with other private mortgage insurers based on premium rates, underwriting requirements, financial strength (including based on credit or financial strength ratings), customer relationships, name recognition, reputation, strength of management teams and field organizations, the ancillary products and services provided to lenders, and the effective use of technology and innovation in the delivery and servicing of our mortgage insurance products.

Pricing practices

In recent years, the industry has materially reduced its use of standard rate cards, which were fairly consistent among competitors, and correspondingly increased its use of (i) "risk-based pricing systems" that use a spectrum of filed rates to allow for formulaic, risk-based pricing based on multiple attributes that may be quickly adjusted within certain parameters, and (ii) customized rate plans, both of which typically have rates lower than the standard rate card. Our increased use of reinsurance over the past several years, and the improved credit profile and reduced loss expectations associated with loans insured after 2008, have helped to mitigate the negative effect of declining premium rates on our expected returns.

For information about competition in the private mortgage insurance industry, see our risk factor titled “Competition or

changes in our relationships with our customers could reduce our revenues, reduce our premium yields and/or increase our losses" in Item 1A.

GSE Risk Share Transactions

In 2018, the GSEs initiated secondary mortgage market programs with loan level mortgage default coverage provided by various (re)insurers that are not mortgage insurers governed by PMIERs, and that are not selected by the lenders. Due to differences in policy terms, these programs may offer premium rates that are below prevalent single premium LPMI rates. While we view these programs as competing with traditional private mortgage insurance, we participate in these programs from time to time.

The GSEs (and other investors) have also used other forms of credit enhancement that did not involve traditional private mortgage insurance, such as engaging in credit-linked note transactions executed in the capital markets, or using other forms of debt issuances or securitizations that transfer credit risk directly to other investors, including competitors and an affiliate of MGIC; using other risk mitigation techniques in conjunction with reduced levels of private mortgage insurance coverage; or accepting credit risk without credit enhancement.

Government programs. PMI also competes against government mortgage insurance programs such as the FHA, VA, and USDA, primarily for lower FICO score business. The combined market share of primary mortgage insurance written by government programs continues to exceed that written by PMI in 2022 and 2021.

Refer to "Mortgage Insurance Portfolio" for additional discussion on market share, the 2022 business environment and the impact it had on operating measures including NIW, IIF and RIF.

PMIERs

We operate under the requirements of the PMIERs of the GSEs in order to insure loans delivered to or purchased by them. The PMIERs include financial requirements as well as business, quality control and certain transactional approval requirements. The financial requirements of the PMIERs require a mortgage insurer’s "Available Assets" (generally only the most liquid assets of an insurer) to equal or exceed its "Minimum Required Assets" (which are based on an insurer's book of risk in force, calculated from tables of factors with several risk dimensions, reduced for credit given for risk ceded under reinsurance transactions, and subject to a floor amount). Based on our application of PMIERs, MGIC's Available Assets under PMIERs totaled $5.7 billion, an excess of $2.3 billion over its Minimum Required Assets at December 31, 2022.

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BUSINESS OUTLOOK FOR 2023

Our outlook for 2023 should be viewed against the backdrop of the business environment discussed above.

NIW

Our NIW is affected by total mortgage originations, the percentage of total mortgage originations using private mortgage insurance (the "PMI penetration rate"), and our market share within the PMI industry. As of January 2023, the total average mortgage origination forecasts from the Fannie Mae and MBA indicate mortgage originations of $1.8 trillion in 2023, compared to an estimated $2.3 trillion in 2022. Both purchase originations and refinance transactions are forecasted to decline in 2023 when compared to 2022. As a result of the decrease in forecasted mortgage originations, we are expecting NIW to be lower in 2023 compared to 2022.

The widespread use of risk based pricing systems by the PMI industry makes it more difficult to compare our rates to those offered by our competitors. We may not be aware of industry rate changes until we observe that our volume of NIW has changed. In addition, business under customized rate plans is awarded by certain customers for only limited periods of time. As a result, our NIW may fluctuate more than it had in the past.

IIF

Our IIF increased 7.6% in 2022 and is expected to be relatively flat in 2023. Our book of IIF is an important driver of our future revenues, and its growth is driven by our ability to generate NIW and the retention of our IIF, as measured by our persistency. Interest rates influence both our NIW and persistency. Generally speaking, in a rising rate environment, total mortgage originations may decline; however, absent material accumulated home price appreciation since the issuance of a policy, we would also expect policy cancellation rates to decline, and in turn increase persistency, although the impact generally lags the change in interest rates. In 2023, we expect interest rates to remain elevated compared to recent years and home prices to decline.

Results of operations

Premiums. Our direct premiums written and earned are impacted by our IIF during the period and our in force premium yield, both of which are expected to be relatively flat in 2023 when compared to 2022. Premiums earned are also impacted by the amount of accelerated premiums from single premium policy cancellations, which generally decrease as refinance activity decreases. Our unearned premium decreased to $195.3 million at December 31, 2022 from $241.7 million at December 31, 2021.

Our net premiums written and earned are primarily impacted by the changes in the direct premiums written and earned noted above and by the amount of premiums we cede under our quota share and excess of loss reinsurance transactions. The amount of premiums we cede in 2023 will be affected by any changes in our reinsurance coverage. Premiums we cede under our quota share transactions is also impacted by the profit commission we receive. The amount of profit commission is variable year-to-year and is dependent on the amount of losses incurred ceded. In 2022, negative losses incurred increased the profit commission we received, resulting in lower ceded premiums. Increases in ceded losses incurred will benefit our losses incurred line, but will result in lower profit commission and higher ceded premiums.

Factors that affect the amount of premiums we earn from our IIF are further discussed in our "Consolidated Results of Operations - Premium yield."

Investment income. Net investment income is a material contributor to our results of operations. We expect net investment income in 2023 to increase in comparison to 2022, primarily due to higher average investment yields. The amount of investment income will be impacted by the change in the yield we can earn on investments and the level of invested assets. The level of invested assets will primarily be impacted by the amount of cash we expect to use in financing activities relative to our cash from operations. The magnitude of any change in our invested asset level will be subject to the timing of our financing activities.

Losses. Losses incurred, net is impacted by the level of new delinquency notices. Generally, on our primary business, the highest claim frequency years have been the third and fourth year after loan origination. As of December 31, 2022, 80% of our primary RIF was written subsequent to December 31, 2019, 85% of our primary RIF was written subsequent to December 31, 2018, and 88% of our primary RIF was written subsequent to December 31, 2017. The pattern of claim frequency can be affected by many factors, including persistency and deteriorating economic conditions.

Our claims paid activity slowed at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic primarily due to forbearance and foreclosure moratoriums put in place. Claim activity has not yet returned to pre-COVID-19 levels. We expect net losses and LAE paid to increase, however, the magnitude and timing of the increases are uncertain.

Underwriting and operating expenses, net. We expect underwriting and operating expenses, net to be modestly lower in 2023 compared to 2022. In recent years, we have made additional investments in our technology, particularly in data and analytics and will continue to make similar investments in 2023. Pension expenses also increased in 2022 as a result of settlement accounting charges incurred during 2022. In 2023, we expect to incur settlement accounting charges as a result of lump sum settlements for employees who retired in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Income taxes. We expect our 2023 effective tax rate to be approximately 21%.

CAPITAL

MGIC dividend payments to our holding company

The ability of MGIC to pay dividends is restricted by insurance regulation. Amounts in excess of prescribed limits are deemed “extraordinary” and may not be paid if disapproved by the OCI. A dividend is extraordinary when the proposed dividend amount, plus dividends paid in the twelve months preceding the dividend payment date exceed the ordinary dividend level. In 2023, MGIC could pay $92 million of ordinary dividends without OCI approval, before taking into consideration dividends paid in the preceding twelve months. In 2022 and 2021, MGIC paid a cash and/or investment security dividend of $800 million and $400 million, respectively, to our holding company. Future dividend payments from MGIC to the holding company will continue to be determined in consultation with the board.

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MGIC Investment Corporation and Subsidiaries

Share repurchase programs

Repurchases may be made from time to time on the open market (including through 10b5-1 plans) or through privately negotiated transactions. The repurchase programs may be suspended for periods or discontinued at any time. We repurchased approximately 27.8 million shares in 2022 using approximately $386 million of holding company resources. In 2021, we repurchased approximately 19.0 million shares of our common stock using approximately $291 million of holding company resources. As of December 31, 2022, we had $114 million of authorization remaining to repurchase our common stock through the end of 2023 under a share repurchase program approved by our Board of Directors in October 2021.

The following table shows details of our share repurchase programs.

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[[/GREPCENT_TABLE]]

As of December 31, 2022, we had approximately 293 million shares of common stock outstanding which was a decrease of 8.4% from December 31, 2021.

Dividends to shareholders

In the first and second quarters of 2022, we paid quarterly cash dividends of $0.08 per share to shareholders which totaled $51.0 million. In the third and fourth quarters of 2022, we paid quarterly cash dividends of $0.10 per share which totaled $60.7 million. On January 24, 2023, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend to holders of the company's common stock of $0.10 per share payable on March 2, 2023, to shareholders of record at the close of business on February 17, 2023.

For information about how the payment of dividends by our holding company will result in an adjustment to the conversion rate and price of our convertible securities, see our risk factor titled “Your ownership in our company may be diluted by additional capital that we raise” in Item 1A.

GSEs

We must comply with a GSE's PMIERs to be eligible to insure loans delivered to or purchased by that GSE. The PMIERs include financial requirements, as well as business, quality control and certain transaction approval requirements. The financial requirements of the PMIERs require a mortgage insurer’s “Available Assets” (generally only the most liquid assets of an insurer) to equal or exceed its “Minimum Required Assets” (which are generally based on an insurer’s book of risk in force and are calculated from tables of factors with several risk dimensions, reduced for credit given for risk ceded under reinsurance transactions).

The PMIERs generally require us to hold significantly more Minimum Required Assets for delinquent loans than for performing loans and the Minimum Required Assets required to be held increases as the number of payments missed on a delinquent loan increases.

If MGIC ceases to be eligible to insure loans purchased by one or both of the GSEs, it would significantly reduce the volume of our NIW, the substantial majority of which is for loans delivered to or purchased by the GSEs. In addition to the increase in Minimum Required Assets associated with delinquent loans, factors that may negatively impact MGIC’s ability to continue to comply with the financial requirements of the PMIERs include the following:

[[GREPCENT_TABLE]]
[["\u00e8","The GSEs may make the PMIERs more onerous in the future. The PMIERs provide that the factors that determine Minimum Required Assets will be updated periodically, or as needed if there is a significant change in macroeconomic conditions or loan performance. We do not anticipate that the regular periodic updates will occur more frequently than once every two years. The PMIERs state that the GSEs will provide notice 180 days prior to the effective date of updates to the factors; however, the GSEs may amend any portion of the PMIERs at any time."],["\u00e8","The PMIERS may be changed in response to the final regulatory capital framework for the GSEs which was established in February 2022."],["\u00e8","Our future operating results may be negatively impacted by the matters discussed in our Risk Factors. Such matters could decrease our revenues, increase our losses or require the use of assets, thereby creating a shortfall in Available Assets."],["\u00e8","Should capital be needed by MGIC in the future, capital contributions from our holding company may not be available due to competing demands on holding company resources, including for repayment of debt."]]
[[/GREPCENT_TABLE]]

Our reinsurance transactions enable us to earn higher returns on our business than we would without them because they reduce the Minimum Required Assets we must hold under PMIERs. However, reinsurance may not always be available to us, or available on similar terms and our reinsurance subjects us to counterparty credit risk. Our access to reinsurance may be disrupted and the terms under which we are able to obtain reinsurance may be less attractive than in the past due to volatility stemming from circumstances such as higher interest rates, increased inflation, global events such as the Russia-Ukraine war, and other factors. In 2022, execution of transactions for XOL reinsurance through the ILN market was more challenging primarily due to increased pricing.

The calculated credit for XOL Transactions under PMIERs is generally based on the PMIERs requirement of the covered loans and the attachment and detachment point of the coverage. PMIERs credit is generally not given for the reinsured risk above the PMIERs requirement. Our existing reinsurance transactions are subject to periodic review by the GSEs and there is a risk we will not receive our current level of credit in future periods for the risk ceded under them. In addition, we may not receive the same level of credit under future transactions that we receive under existing transactions. If MGIC is not allowed certain levels of credit under the PMIERs, under certain circumstances, MGIC may terminate the reinsurance transactions without penalties.

State Regulations

The insurance laws of 16 jurisdictions, including Wisconsin, our domiciliary state, require a mortgage insurer to maintain a minimum amount of statutory capital relative to its RIF (or a similar measure) in order for the mortgage insurer to continue to write new business. We refer to these requirements as the “State Capital Requirements.” While they vary among jurisdictions, the most common State Capital Requirements allow for a maximum risk-to-capital ratio of 25 to 1. A risk-to-capital ratio will increase if (i) the percentage decrease in capital exceeds the percentage

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MGIC Investment Corporation and Subsidiaries

decrease in insured risk, or (ii) the percentage increase in capital is less than the percentage increase in insured risk. Wisconsin does not regulate capital by using a risk-to-capital measure but instead requires a MPP. MGIC's "policyholder position" includes its net worth or surplus and its, contingency reserve.

At December 31, 2022, MGIC’s risk-to-capital ratio was 10.2 to 1, below the maximum allowed by the jurisdictions with State Capital Requirements, and its policyholder position was $3.5 billion above the required MPP of $2.1 billion. Our risk-to-capital ratio and MPP reflect full credit for the risk ceded under our reinsurance transactions. It is possible that under the revised State Capital Requirements discussed below, MGIC will not be allowed full credit for the risk ceded under such transactions. If MGIC is not allowed an agreed level of credit under either the State Capital Requirements or the PMIERs, MGIC may terminate the reinsurance transactions, without penalty. At this time, we expect MGIC to continue to comply with the current State Capital Requirements; however, refer to our risk factor titled “State capital requirements may prevent us from continuing to write new insurance on an uninterrupted basis” in Item 1A for more information about matters that could negatively affect such compliance.

The NAIC previously announced plans to revise the minimum capital and surplus requirements for mortgage insurers that are provided for in its Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Model Act. In 2019, a working group of state regulators released an exposure draft of a revised Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Model Act and a risk-based capital framework to establish capital requirements for mortgage insurers, although certain items were not completely addressed by the framework, including the treatment of ceded risk and minimum capital floors. In October 2022, the NAIC working group released a revised exposure draft of the Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Model Act that does not include changes to the capital requirements of the existing Model Act.

GSE REFORM

The FHFA has been the conservator of the GSEs since 2008 and has the authority to control and direct their operations. The increased role that the federal government has assumed in the residential housing finance system through the GSE conservatorship may increase the likelihood that the business practices of the GSEs change, including through administrative action, in ways that have a material adverse effect on us and that the charters of the GSEs are changed by new federal legislation.

It is uncertain what role the GSEs, FHA and private capital, including private mortgage insurance, will play in the residential housing finance system in the future. The timing and impact on our business of any resulting changes is uncertain. Many of the proposed changes would require Congressional action to implement and it is difficult to estimate when Congressional action would be final and how long any associated phase-in period may last.

For additional information about the business practices of the GSEs, see our Risk Factor titled “Changes in the business practices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's ("the GSEs"), federal legislation that changes their charters or a restructuring of the GSEs could reduce our revenues or increase our losses.” in Item 1A.

COVID-19 PANDEMIC

The COVID-19 pandemic materially impacted our 2020 financial results, as we reserved for losses associated with the increased delinquency notices received. Through December 31, 2022, the vast majority of those delinquency notices have cured, resulting in a decrease in losses incurred as we recognized favorable loss development.

Forbearance for borrowers who were affected by COVID-19 allows mortgage payments to be suspended for a period of time. Historically, forbearance plans have reduced the incidence of our losses on affected loans. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the long-term economic impact of COVID-19, it is difficult to predict the ultimate effect of COVID-19 related forbearances on our loss incidence. Whether a loan delinquency will cure, including through modification, when forbearance ends will depend on the economic circumstances of the borrower at that time. The severity of losses associated with delinquencies that do not cure will depend on economic conditions at that time, including home prices.

Foreclosures on mortgages purchased or securitized by the GSEs were suspended through July 31, 2021. Under a CFPB rule that was effective through December 31, 2021, with limited exceptions, servicers were required to ensure that at least one temporary procedural safeguard had been met before referring 120-day delinquent loans for foreclosure. Claim activity has not yet returned to pre-COVID-19 levels.

For additional information about how the COVID-19 pandemic may impact our future financial results, business, liquidity, and/or financial condition, see our Risk Factor titled “The COVID-19 pandemic may materially impact our business and future financial condition.”

FACTORS AFFECTING OUR RESULTS

Our current and future business, results of operations and financial condition are impacted by macroeconomic conditions such as rising interest rates, home prices, housing demand, level of employment, inflation, restrictions and costs on mortgage credit, and other factors. For additional information on how on our business may be impacted see our Risk Factor titled “Downturns in the domestic economy or declines in home prices may result in more homeowners defaulting and our losses increasing, with a corresponding decrease in our returns.”

As noted above, the COVID-19 pandemic may adversely affect our future business, results of operations, and financial condition.

The future effects of changing climatic conditions on our business is uncertain. For information about possible effects, please refer to our Risk Factor titled “Pandemics, hurricanes and other natural disasters may impact our incurred losses, the amount and timing of paid claims, our inventory of notices of default and our Minimum Required Assets under PMIERs.”

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Our results of operations are affected by:

Premiums written and earned

Premiums written and earned in a year are influenced by:

•NIW, which increases IIF. Many factors affect NIW, including the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations and competition to provide credit enhancement on those mortgages from the FHA, the VA, other mortgage insurers, and other alternatives to mortgage insurance, including GSE programs that may reduce or eliminate the demand for mortgage insurance. NIW does not include loans previously insured by us that are modified, such as loans modified under HARP.

•Cancellations, which reduce IIF. Cancellations due to refinancings are affected by the level of current mortgage interest rates compared to the mortgage coupon rates throughout the in force book, current home values compared to values when the loans in the in force book were insured and the terms on which mortgage credit is available. Home price appreciation can give homeowners the right to cancel mortgage insurance on their loans if sufficient home equity is achieved. Cancellations also result from policy rescissions, which require us to return any premiums received on the rescinded policies, and claim payments, which require us to return any premium received on the related policies from the date of default on the insured loans. Cancellations of single premium policies, which are generally non-refundable, result in immediate recognition of any remaining unearned premium.

•Premium rates, which are affected by product type, competitive pressures, the risk characteristics of the insured loans, the percentage of coverage on the insured loans, and PMIERs capital requirements. The substantial majority of our monthly and annual mortgage insurance premiums are under premium plans for which, for the first ten years of the policy, the amount of premium is determined by multiplying the initial premium rate by the original loan balance; thereafter, the premium rate resets to a lower rate used for the remaining life of the policy. The remainder of our monthly and annual premiums are under premium plans for which premiums are determined by a fixed percentage of the loan’s amortizing balance over the life of the policy.

•Premiums ceded, net of profit commission under our QSR Transactions, and premiums ceded under our XOL Transactions, are primarily affected by the percentage of our IIF subject to our reinsurance transactions. The profit commission under our QSR Transactions also varies inversely with the level of ceded losses incurred on a “dollar for dollar” basis and can be eliminated at ceded loss levels higher than what we have experienced on our QSR Transactions. As a result, lower levels of losses incurred result in a higher profit commission and less benefit from ceded losses incurred; higher levels of losses incurred result in more benefit from ceded losses incurred and a lower profit commission (or for certain levels of accident year loss ratios, its elimination). See Note 9 – “Reinsurance” to our consolidated financial statements for a discussion of our reinsurance transactions.

•Premiums earned are generated by the insurance that is in force during all or a portion of the period. A change in the

average IIF in the current period compared to an earlier period is a factor that will increase (when the average in force is higher) or reduce (when it is lower) premiums written and earned in the current period, although this effect may be enhanced (or mitigated) by the factors discussed above.

Investment income

Our investment portfolio is composed principally of investment grade fixed income securities. The principal factors that influence investment income are the size of the portfolio and its yield. As measured by amortized cost (which excludes changes in fair value, such as from changes in interest rates), the size of the investment portfolio is mainly a function of cash generated from (or used in) operations, such as net premiums written, investment income, net claim payments and expenses, and cash provided by (or used for) non-operating activities, such as debt or stock issuances or repurchases, and dividends.

Losses incurred

Losses incurred are the current expense that reflects claim payments, costs of settling claims, and changes in our estimates of payments that will ultimately be made as a result of delinquencies on insured loans. As explained under “Critical Accounting Estimates” below, except in the case of a premium deficiency reserve, we recognize an estimate of this expense only for delinquent loans. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the level of new delinquencies has historically followed a seasonal pattern, with new delinquencies in the first part of the year lower than new delinquencies in the latter part of the year. The state of the economy, local housing markets, and various other factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic, may result in delinquencies not following the typical pattern. Losses incurred are generally affected by:

•The state of the economy, including unemployment and housing values, each of which affects the likelihood that loans will become delinquent and whether loans that are delinquent cure their delinquency.

•The product mix of the in force book, with loans having higher risk characteristics generally resulting in higher delinquencies and claims.

•The size of loans insured, with higher average loan amounts tending to increase incurred losses.

•The percentage of coverage on insured loans, with deeper average coverage tending to increase incurred losses.

•The rate at which we rescind policies or curtail claims. Our estimated loss reserves incorporate our estimates of future rescissions of policies and curtailments of claims, and reversals of rescissions and curtailments. We collectively refer to such rescissions and denials as “rescissions” and variations of this term. We call reductions to claims "curtailments."

•The distribution of claims over the life of a book. Historically, the first few years after loans are originated are a period of relatively low claims, with claims increasing substantially for several years subsequent and then declining, although persistency, the condition of the economy, including unemployment and housing prices, and other factors can affect this pattern. For example, a weak economy or housing

MGIC Investment Corporation 2022 Form 10-K | 48

MGIC Investment Corporation and Subsidiaries

value declines can lead to claims from older books increasing, continuing at stable levels or experiencing a lower rate of decline. See further information under “Mortgage insurance earnings and cash flow cycle” below.

•Losses ceded under reinsurance transactions. See Note 9 – “Reinsurance” to our consolidated financial statements for a discussion of our reinsurance transactions.

Underwriting and other expenses

Underwriting and other expenses includes items such as employee compensation, fees for professional and consulting services, depreciation and maintenance expense, and premium taxes, and are reported net of ceding commissions associated with our QSR Transactions. Employee compensation expenses are variable due to share-based compensation, changes in benefits, and changes in headcount (which can fluctuate due to volume of NIW). See Note 9 – “Reinsurance” to our consolidated financial statements for a discussion of ceding commission on our QSR Transactions.

Interest expense

Interest expense reflects the interest associated with our consolidated outstanding debt obligations discussed in Note 7 – “Debt” to our consolidated financial statements and under “Liquidity and Capital Resources” below.

Other

Certain activities that we do not consider being part of our fundamental operating activities may also impact our results of operations and are described below.

Gains (losses) on investments and other financial instruments

•Fixed income securities. Investment gains and losses reflect the difference between the amount received on the sale of a fixed income security and the fixed income security’s cost basis, as well as any credit allowances and any impairments on securities we intend to sell prior to recovery of its amortized cost basis. The amount received on the sale of fixed income securities is affected by the coupon rate of the security compared to the yield of comparable securities at the time of sale.

•Equity securities. Investment gains and losses are accounted for as a function of the periodic change in fair value.

•Financial instruments. Investment gains and losses on the embedded derivative on our Home Re Transactions reflect the present value impact of the variation in investment income on assets on the insurance-linked notes held by the reinsurance trusts and the contractual reference rate used to calculate the reinsurance premiums we estimate we will pay over the estimated remaining life.

Loss on debt extinguishment

Gains and losses on debt extinguishment result from discretionary activities that are undertaken to enhance our capital position, improve our debt profile and/or reduce potential dilution from our outstanding convertible debt. Extinguishing our outstanding debt obligations early through these discretionary activities may result in losses primarily driven by the payment of consideration in excess of our carrying value , and the write off of

unamortized debt issuance costs on the extinguished portion of the debt.

Refer to “Explanation and reconciliation of our use of Non-GAAP financial measures” below to understand how these items impact our evaluation of our core financial performance.

MORTGAGE INSURANCE EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW CYCLE

In general, the majority of any underwriting profit that a book generates occurs in the early years of the book, with the largest portion of any underwriting profit realized in the first year following the year the book was written. Subsequent years of a book may result in either underwriting profit or underwriting losses. This pattern of results typically occurs because relatively few of the incurred losses on delinquencies that a book will ultimately experience typically occur in the first few years of the book, when premium revenue is highest, while subsequent years are affected by declining premium revenues, as the number of insured loans decreases (primarily due to loan prepayments) and increasing losses. The typical pattern is also a function of premium rates generally resetting to lower levels after ten years. The state of the economy, local housing markets and various other factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic, may result in delinquencies not following the typical pattern.