# VZ Volatility & Regime

Advisory: Descriptive volatility statistics + an experimental regime signal - not investment advice; past/model estimates do not indicate future results. Informational only - not investment advice.

Window: 3y ending 2026-06-30. Pack hash: ae38e47f3dd778f61ca74f26a0928f2ba7f49a60e57f62d4c298a92a16ddd2b8.

## Volatility estimates

For VZ over the pinned 3y window ending 2026-06-30, lmfin computes current annualized volatility 34.68%, long-run annualized volatility 23.41%, and GARCH persistence 0.44.

The GARCH model's 1-day-ahead volatility estimate is 33.68%, its 5-day-ahead estimate is 23.89%, and its 21-day-ahead estimate is 23.41%.

## Comparator estimates

For the same pinned window, lmfin also reports EWMA volatility 34.66%, trailing 21-day volatility 35.24%, and trailing-window volatility 23.27%.

## Experimental regime signal

lmfin's experimental regime detector reports 10.00 detected change-points in the pinned window. The current experimental volatility state is high, with 12.00 days in that state.

## Volatility table

| Metric | Value | Window | End |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Current annualized volatility | 34.68% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| Long-run annualized volatility | 23.41% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| GARCH model 1-day-ahead volatility estimate | 33.68% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| GARCH model 5-day-ahead volatility estimate | 23.89% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| GARCH model 21-day-ahead volatility estimate | 23.41% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| EWMA annualized volatility | 34.66% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| Trailing 21-day annualized volatility | 35.24% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| Trailing-window annualized volatility | 23.27% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| GARCH persistence | 0.44 | 3y | 2026-06-30 |

## Experimental regime change-points

Current experimental state: high; current state start: 2026-06-30; days in state: 12.
| Date | lmfin note |
| --- | --- |
| 2023-10-24 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 67 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.99 |
| 2024-01-23 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 56 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.64 |
| 2024-04-22 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 59 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.88 |
| 2024-07-22 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 121 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.97 |
| 2024-10-22 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 24 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.71 |
| 2025-03-07 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 337 to 2; P(run<=5)=0.40 |
| 2025-07-21 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 53 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.13 |
| 2025-10-06 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 107 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.91 |
| 2026-01-30 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 187 to 1; P(run<=5)=1.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 102 to 2; P(run<=5)=0.43 |

## Provenance

lmfin: lmfin 0.1.0. Vol command: lmfin vol VZ --window 3y --end 2026-06-30 --json. Regime command: lmfin regime VZ --window 3y --end 2026-06-30 --json. Price source: yahoo; price field: adjusted_close; window start: 2023-07-03; window end: 2026-06-30. Volatility statistics and experimental regime change-points are lmfin computations from Yahoo adjusted-close data over the pinned window. Model estimates are descriptive outputs, not advice. Pack hash: ae38e47f3dd778f61ca74f26a0928f2ba7f49a60e57f62d4c298a92a16ddd2b8.