Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (ALHC) FY 2021 MD&A
This page reproduces the company's own Item 7 MD&A text from the linked SEC filing. It is filer text, not grepcent analysis, scoring, or investment advice.
Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and accompanying notes, which appear elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, including those discussed below and elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. See Part I. Item 1A. Risk Factors and Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements. For discussion of 2019 items and year-over-year comparisons between 2020 and 2019 that are not included in this 2021 Form 10-K, refer to "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" found in our Form S-1 that was originally filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 3, 2021 and our Form S-1 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 16, 2021.
Overview
Alignment is a next generation, consumer-centric platform designed to revolutionize the healthcare experience for seniors. We deliver this experience through our Medicare Advantage plans, which are customized to meet the needs of a diverse array of seniors. Our innovative model of consumer-centric healthcare is purpose-built to provide seniors with care as it should be: high quality, low cost and accompanied by a vastly improved consumer experience. We combine a proprietary technology platform and a high-touch clinical model that enhances our members’ lifestyles and health outcomes while simultaneously controlling costs, which allows us to reinvest savings back into our platform and products to directly benefit the senior consumer. We have grown Health Plan Membership, which we define as members enrolled in our HMO and PPO contracts, from approximately 13,000 at inception to over 86,000 as of December 31, 2021, representing a 31% compound annual growth rate across 38 markets and 4 states. We had approximately 92,700 Health Plan Members across these markets as of January 1, 2022. Our ultimate goal is to bring this differentiated, advocacy-driven healthcare experience to millions of senior consumers in the United States and to become the most trusted senior healthcare brand in the country.
Our model is based on a flywheel concept, referred to as our “virtuous cycle”, which is designed to delight our senior consumers. We start by listening to and engaging with our seniors in order to provide a superior experience in both their healthcare and daily living needs. Through our proprietary technology platform, Alignment's Virtual Application ("AVA"), we utilize data and predictive algorithms that are specifically designed to ensure personalized care is delivered to each member. When our information-enabled care model is combined with our member engagement, we are able to improve healthcare outcomes by, for example, reducing unnecessary hospital admissions, which in turn lowers overall costs. Our ability to manage healthcare expenditures while maintaining quality and member satisfaction is a distinct and sustainable competitive advantage. Our lower total healthcare expenditures allow us to reinvest our savings into richer coverage and benefits, which propels our growth in revenue and membership due to the enhanced consumer value proposition. As we grow, we continue to listen to and incorporate member feedback, and we are able to further enhance benefits and produce strong clinical outcomes. Our virtuous cycle, based on the principle of doing well by doing good, is highly repeatable and a core tenet of our ability to continue to expand in existing and new markets in the future.
It is this virtuous cycle, underpinned by continuous expansion and improvement in our technology platform, that has enabled us to achieve revenues of $1,167.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2021 and $959.2 million for the year ended December 31, 2020, representing a revenue compound annual growth rate of 37% from our founding in 2013 through the fourth quarter of 2021.
Medicare Advantage Background
Today, seniors are confronted with a healthcare landscape that is fragmented across disparate point solutions, tools and vendors, without an accessible, coordinated approach to comprehensive care delivery. Under the traditional Medicare fee-for-service ("FFS") model, seniors receive access to hospital insurance benefits (“Part A”) and outpatient services (“Part B”) directly from CMS. Original Medicare (Part A and B) does not include prescription drug coverage (“Part D”), and most seniors enrolled in original Medicare opt to obtain Part D and other protection for gaps in their coverage by purchasing costly Medicare supplement insurance plans. In contrast, Medicare Advantage plans are direct-to-consumer and provide a single point of care delivery for Part A, Part B and often Part D coverage. Medicare Advantage penetration of the Medicare market is rapidly increasing given the enhanced benefits and coverage that Medicare Advantage plans offer relative to traditional Medicare FFS. Industry projections have forecasted a continued increase in the Medicare Advantage penetration rate, such that the population using Medicare Advantage plans is expected to increase from 28 million in 2021 to 37 million in 2025 as Medicare Advantage penetration accelerates from 44% to approximately 47%.
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Medicare Advantage allows one entity to influence the entirety of a senior’s healthcare through a singular, direct-to-consumer product. We contract with CMS under the Medicare Advantage program to provide health insurance coverage to Medicare eligible persons under HMO and PPO plans in exchange for a payment per member per month ("PMPM"). The PMPM payment varies based on geography, CMS Star ratings and certain population-specific risk factors. Under these value-based contracts, we assume the economic risk of funding our members’ healthcare, supplemental benefits and related administration costs. By transferring the economic risk to managed care companies like Alignment, CMS has enabled us to focus on proactive, cross-disciplinary care targeted at improving health outcomes and lowering unnecessary healthcare expenditures.
The Medicare Advantage regulatory framework is designed to reward plans that achieve the triple aim of high-quality care, low costs and better experience. CMS payments to Medicare Advantage plans are allocated in each county or region based on a bidding system. Each plan submits a bid based on its estimated costs per enrollee for services covered under Medicare Parts A and B. Plans that have a low enough cost structure to bid under the benchmark are entitled to rebates, which enable those plans to offer enhanced supplemental benefits and medical coverage to their members, which in turn boosts membership growth and therefore revenue. CMS further measures Medicare Advantage beneficiaries’ clinical outcomes and experience with their health plans and the healthcare system through a Five Star Quality Rating System. Medicare Advantage plans are eligible to receive additional economic incentives based on their Star rating. Due to the competitive nature of CMS’s bidding system, only those plans that are able to provide low cost and high-quality outcomes will be able to offer enhanced benefit options, which is critical to achieving sustainable membership and growth on a long-term basis.
Under the Medicare Advantage system, our members typically enroll with us for a one-year period that can be renewed on an annual basis, resulting in revenue that is principally based on a subscription-like PMPM recurring revenue model. This model provides us with significant visibility into our short-term financial performance, particularly given that the substantial majority of our members continue to choose Alignment after their initial selection year. Further, our HMO and PPO plans covered under Medicare Advantage contracts with CMS are generally renewed for a calendar year term, unless CMS notifies us of its decision not to renew by May 1 of the year in which the contract would end. When carefully managed, this annual renewal process provides a measure of stability and predictability to our short-term revenue streams, allowing us to focus on improving health quality outcomes and lowering healthcare expenditures for our population through enhanced member care on a long-term basis.
Factors Affecting Our Performance
Our proprietary technology platform, AVA, is a key element of our business with capabilities that we expect to impact our future performance. AVA enables us to personalize and manage our member relationships, care quality and experience, and to coordinate and manage risk with our provider partners. AVA’s unified platform, analytical tools and data across the healthcare ecosystem enable us to produce consistent outcomes, unit economics and support new member growth. Additionally, our historical financial performance has been, and we expect our financial performance in the future will be, driven by our ability to:
Capitalize on Our Existing Market Growth Opportunity
Our ability to attract and retain members to grow in our existing markets depends on our ability to offer a superior value proposition. Providing better care and richer benefits that lead to higher member satisfaction at a lower cost generates greater performance for us under the Medicare Advantage program, which we can then use to fund our growth. We have proven that we can compete against, and take market share from, large established players in highly competitive markets. According to CMS data, we were one of the top three Medicare Advantage Organizations in terms of HMO net members growth in our California counties between 2016 and 2022. Further, over 80% of our membership growth came from “plan switchers”, which are seniors who joined Alignment from other Medicare Advantage plans as opposed to joining a Medicare Advantage plan for the first time.
We attract new members through both our internal and external sales channels. Our internal sales channel consists of Alignment representatives, both in the field and telephonically, who market and sell Alignment’s portfolio of products to prospective members. This channel also includes our new sales to members who sign up using Alignment’s direct online enrollment tools. Our external sales channel consists of partnerships with third party broker channels who sell Alignment products alongside competing products. These third-party organizations also consist of in-person, telephonic and online sales distribution channels. Our growth will depend on our continued success in marketing our products through these channels.
We believe that significant growth opportunities remain in our current geographic footprint which includes markets with some of the largest senior populations in the country. There are approximately 3.7 million Medicare-eligible individuals enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans in our existing 38 counties, of which our approximately 92,700 Health Plan Members represents only 3% market share. In fact, California has the greatest number of Medicare eligibles of any state in the country, and has more Medicare eligibles than the smallest 19 states combined. We believe that there are still significant opportunities for future growth even in our most mature markets where we have a 10-20% market share. As we gain brand recognition, expand our membership base and grow market share in our existing markets, we are also generally able to lower our incremental member acquisition costs. These savings can then be reinvested into our business to continue to allow us to offer innovative product offerings. We believe that we are well placed to continue to gain share in our current markets due to our strong track record of reducing
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healthcare costs, providing exceptional care and a superior experience, establishing innovative partnerships with a wide array of providers in order to expand our network and offering a best-in-class member experience.
Additionally, we are evaluating other opportunities to leverage our historical investments in our technology platform and our comprehensive clinical model across our existing and potentially new geographies. As an example, we recently entered into CMS Innovation Center’s Direct Contracting program, which allows us to partner directly with physicians to help manage their Medicare FFS patient populations and participate in the upside and downside risk associated with managing the health of such patients. As of December 31, 2021, we had approximately 5,400 members in our DCE arrangement with our clinician partners in North Carolina. While still early, we believe this DCE partnership is indicative of the value we can potentially deliver to a broader set of seniors in traditional Medicare over time.
Drive Growth and Consistent Outcomes Through New Market Expansion
Given our track record of delivering exceptional results and delighting consumers in our existing markets, we recently launched our national expansion strategy guided by our disciplined approach to identifying new markets. While our growth opportunity in our existing geographic footprint is robust, we believe that we can expand into new markets by utilizing our proven, replicable model of offering richer coverage and benefits at a lower cost, coupled with a superior consumer experience. Over the last three years we have expanded into approximately 10 new markets per year and have increased our Medicare eligible population opportunity by 2.3 million through geographic expansion in 2020-2022.
We enter new markets with the goal of building brand awareness across our key stakeholders to achieve meaningful market share over time. We intend to focus on markets with significant senior populations where we expect to be able to replicate our model most effectively. Our analytical framework for selecting new markets to enter evaluates a number of factors, including: the presence of aligned provider partners, our ability to compete effectively based on the richness of our products, and our ability to build and deploy local market care delivery teams efficiently. Our methodical approach to new market expansion requires long-term planning and investment, given the lead time required to develop each market opportunity. We typically begin targeting new markets 12-18 months prior to product launch, during which period we develop local provider and broker contracts and relationships, apply for new state licenses and/or obtain approvals, obtain CMS approval, and file our bids for the following calendar year. We then further invest in new market annual enrollment period ("AEP") sales and marketing, as well as our local provider and clinical teams to support our growth and operational efforts, all prior to enrolling any new members. Upon product launch in a new market, and depending upon the nature of our contracting entry strategy and the pace of our new member growth over the first two to three years, we may in some instances incur losses over the first several years as we establish ourselves and the Alignment model in the community.
We believe that investment in new market development is required to drive sustained long-term growth, and our willingness to make such investments is underpinned by our proven success in a diverse array of markets across our existing geographic footprint. Enabled by AVA, we have been successful in rural, urban and suburban markets, as well as markets with varying degrees of provider and health system competition and control. Our existing markets also feature a diverse array of membership profiles across ethnicities, income levels and acuity. In a wide variety of geographies, population mixes and local market conditions, we have demonstrated success in achieving strong medical benefit ratio ("MBR") performance and consistently high satisfaction among our members.
AVA gives us the analytics and tools to replicate this value creation across a variety of operating and contracting models with our provider partners, which we believe provides us with the capability to successfully grow and scale in new markets in a methodical and manageable way. We have already identified additional markets in the Western, Southern, Northeastern and Great Lakes regions of the United States for potential expansion in 2022 and beyond, with a focus on higher-density population centers and adjacent counties, and believe that expansion into new markets and new states will continue to extend our growth opportunities for the foreseeable future.
Provide Superior Service, Care and Consumer Satisfaction
We are highly focused on providing superior service and care to our members and on maintaining high levels of consumer satisfaction, which are key to our financial performance and growth. The CMS Five Star Quality Rating System provides economic incentives to Medicare Advantage plans that achieve higher Star ratings by (i) meeting certain care criteria (such as completing particular preventative screening procedures or ensuring proper follow-up care is provided for specific conditions or episodes) and (ii) receiving high member satisfaction ratings. These incentives impact financial performance in the year following the CMS Rating Year (for example, CMS’s announcement of the 2022 Ratings occurred in the second half of 2021, and will impact our financial performance in 2023). Historically, we have earned additional bonus payments from CMS based on our performance under CMS’s Five Star Quality Rating System. For the last five years (CMS Rating Years 2018-2022), over 98% of our California members have been in a CMS contract achieving at least a 4 Star overall rating (the remaining members were in a CMS contract that had too few members to be measured). This is important to our financial performance, as (i) earning a 4 Star rating generally allows us to receive a 5% bonus to our revenue benchmark rate in our bids (subject to certain county-level adjustments), and (ii) a 4.5 Star rating allows us to retain a larger portion of the savings our model creates relative to our
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benchmark by increasing our rebate percentage from 65% to 70% of savings, both of which allow us to offer richer coverage and supplemental benefits.
We believe our dedication to serving our seniors and our relentless focus on delivering quality outcomes has been instrumental in our ability to deliver a 4 Star or better rating for the past five years. Our Medicare Advantage plans in California currently have a 4 Star rating, and our plans in Nevada, North Carolina and Arizona do not yet have independent Star ratings due to our limited operating history in those markets. As a result, payments in Nevada and North Carolina are expected to be based on our Star rating in California for the next several years. We have invested heavily in internal clinical and non-clinical resources focused on driving important workstreams such as preventative care, medication adherence and care coordination, which impact our ability to achieve higher ratings in the CMS Star system. We also work hand-in-hand with our external community of providers to remediate gaps in care, which has directly resulted in our ability to maintain strong Stars performance. Both our internal and external efforts are facilitated by AVA, which helps to ensure that members are getting the right care at the right time.
In addition, our ability to broadly achieve and maintain superior member satisfaction enables us to increase our member engagement and retention. Our success in achieving member satisfaction is evidenced by our NPS of greater than 60 overall and greater than 75 for our Care Anywhere members, compared to an industry average NPS ranging from 30-40, based on data collected and made publicly available by Customer Guru, a commercial provider of member satisfaction tracking services. Further, in CMS’s most recent annual member survey, which asks members to evaluate our products across a variety of criteria, our HMO contract with CMS in California, which represents 98% of our California membership, scored a 5.0 Star rating on members’ rating of the health plan. These results reflect our ongoing efforts to continuously delight our senior consumers. See “Risk Factors —We may not be successful in maintaining or improving our Star ratings in future years, which may have a direct and substantial adverse impact on our revenue.”
Effectively Manage the Quality of Care to Improve Member Outcomes
Our care delivery model is based on a clinical continuum through which we have created a highly personalized experience that is unique to each member depending on their personal health and circumstances. Utilizing data and predictive analytics generated by AVA, our clinical continuum separates seniors into four categories in order to provide optimized care for every stage of a senior’s life: healthy, healthy utilizer, pre-chronic and chronic. We partner with our broader network of community providers to service members in our non-chronic categories, and we have developed a Care Anywhere program implemented by our internal clinical teams to care for our higher risk and/or chronically ill members. In calendar year 2021, only approximately 10% of our members fell within the chronically ill category; however, they accounted for more than 73% of our institutional claims. Therefore, we believe that giving these members the best possible preventative care is not only essential for optimizing clinical outcomes, but is also key to building a successful clinical model that allows us to manage the financial risk of our population as a whole.
By investing in our members’ care proactively, our model has consistently reduced unnecessary and costly care while improving the quality of our members’ lifestyle and healthcare experience. In 2021, we achieved a hospitalization rate of approximately 156 hospitalizations per every 1,000 at-risk members, which is approximately 38% better than the 2019 Medicare FFS performance (based on data from CMS’s Geographic Variation Public Use File) in our markets. Further, we have achieved approximately 155-165 inpatient admissions per thousand on our at-risk membership for the last five years in a row in spite of our significant membership growth over that period of time. This performance is a critical indicator of not only quality of care but also our financial outcomes. By delivering superior care and preventing avoidable utilization of the healthcare system, we are able to reduce our claims expenditures in some of our largest medical expense categories, which translates to superior MBR financial performance and ultimately the ability to offer richer products in the market.
Achieve Superior Unit Economics
As our senior population ages their healthcare needs become more frequent and complex. To combat the healthcare cost increases that typically result, we proactively look to (i) connect with our population early in their enrollment with Alignment to assess their care needs, (ii) develop care plans and engage those members with more chronic, complex health challenges in our clinical model, and (iii) continue to monitor and evaluate our healthier members in a preventative fashion over time. Given the Medicare Advantage payment mechanism and the retention of the vast majority of our members who continue to choose Alignment after their initial selection year, we are able to focus our efforts on driving favorable long-term health outcomes for our entire population.
As a result, our clinical model efforts have demonstrated the ability to lower the MBRs of our returning members. For example, new members joining our plans for whom we retain at least a majority of claim risk typically average MBRs between 85-90%, whereas our longest tenured members, who have been members of our plans for 5+ years and for whom we retain at least a majority of claim risk, have MBRs that typically average in the 70-75% range, with corresponding improvement in gross profit PMPM performance for such members, in each case excluding the costs of our clinical model investments (which are comprised of the annual expenditures we incur to deploy our internal clinical resources, including the costs of employing doctors, nurses, case managers, social workers and medical supply costs, among others). Furthermore, we’ve been able to maintain a 70-78%
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MBR range (excluding the costs of our clinical model investments) for our year 5+ at-risk members throughout the COVID-19 pandemic despite the adverse impact COVID has had on our claims per member per month and revenue per member per month across cohorts. We believe this is evidence of our ability to manage the financial risk of our members as they age, and that these favorable underlying unit economic trends translate directly to our ability to continue to deliver a richer product to the marketplace. With this dynamic in mind, our consolidated MBR may be impacted year-to-year based on our pace of new member growth and mix of members by cohort. However, we believe our ability to sustain MBR performance improvement over time positions us well to invest in new member growth to drive long-term financial performance.
Investments in our Platform and Growth
We plan to continue to invest in our business in order to further develop our AVA platform, pursue new expansion opportunities and create innovative product offerings. We have invested significant time, effort and capital into developing our proprietary technology platform. Our member and provider interactions, cost management and consumer engagement are supported by AVA, and we anticipate continuing to invest in our technology to incorporate new plan designs, benefits and care protocols to enrich the consumer experience. We believe that investing in AVA to continuously improve its capacity, functionality and effectiveness will ensure that AVA continues to provide us with the most advanced tools to anticipate and address the evolving needs of our growing membership.
In order to maintain a differentiated value proposition for our members, we continue to invest in innovative product offerings and supplementary benefits to meet the evolving needs of the senior consumer. Additionally, we anticipate further investments in our business as we expand into new markets and pursue strategic acquisitions, which we expect will primarily be focused on healthcare delivery groups in key geographies, standalone and provider-sponsored Medicare Advantage plans and other complementary risk bearing assets.
A key part of our growth strategy is to carefully balance the short-term costs of our investments against the long-term benefits that they can achieve for our business and our members. We plan to balance these investments in our platform and in future growth with a continued focus on managing our results of operations and investing judiciously. Accordingly, in the short term these activities may increase our net losses, but in the longer term we anticipate that these investments will positively impact our business and results.
Seasonality to our Business
Our operational and financial results will experience some variability depending upon the time of year in which they are measured. This variability is most notable in the following areas:
Member Growth
We experience the largest portion of member growth during the first quarter, when plan enrollment selections made during AEP from October 15th through December 7th of the prior year take effect. While we also add members throughout the year, including during CMS’s Open Enrollment Period and Special Enrollment Periods when certain eligible individuals can enroll in Medicare Advantage after January 1, we expect to see a majority of our member growth occur January 1 of a given calendar year.
Continued Investments in Growth
We expect to continue to focus on driving long-term growth and the scalability of our approach through investments in our provider network, care model, AVA technology platform, new market expansions and marketing efforts. Due to the timing of many of these investments, we typically incur a greater level of investment in the second half of the year relative to the first half of the year, causing the second half of the year to often be less profitable than the first half of the year. Although the investments we make may adversely affect our operating results in the near term, we believe that they will be important drivers of our long-term performance.
Per-Member Revenue
Our revenue per member is a function of the county in which our members reside, our CMS Star rating for a given payment year, and our ability to accurately and appropriately document the acuity of a member. In January of each year, CMS revises the risk adjustment factor for each member based upon health conditions documented in the prior year, leading to a change in per-member revenue. As the year progresses, our per-member revenue often declines as new members join us, typically with less complete or accurate documentation (and therefore lower risk-adjustment scores), and senior mortality disproportionately impacts our higher-acuity (and therefore greater revenue) members. Further, given that we are able to reasonably project what our final risk adjustment payment will be after 100% of encounter data is submitted to and accepted by CMS, we accrue for our projected final risk adjustment payment over the course of the year, which is subject to adjustment up or down during the year as encounter data continues to develop for the prior calendar year.
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Medical Costs
Medical costs will vary seasonally depending on a number of factors, but most significantly the weather. Certain illnesses, such as the influenza virus, are far more prevalent during colder months of the year, which will result in an increase in medical expenses during these time periods. We therefore expect to see higher levels of per-member medical costs in the first and fourth quarters. We also expect to experience an impact should there be a pandemic such as COVID-19, which may result in increased or decreased total medical costs depending upon the severity of the infection, the duration of the infection and the impact to the supply and availability of healthcare services for our members. We develop estimates for medical expenses incurred but not yet paid (“IBNP”) using an actuarial process that is consistently applied and centrally controlled. Medical expenses payable includes claims reported but not yet paid, estimates for claims incurred but not reported, and estimates for the costs necessary to process unpaid claims at the end of each period. These actuarial methods consider factors such as historical data for payment patterns, cost trends, product mix, seasonality, utilization of healthcare services and other relevant factors.
Prescription Drug Coverage
The design of our prescription drug coverage (Medicare Part D) results in coverage that varies as a member’s cumulative out-of-pocket costs pass through successive stages of a member’s plan period, which begins annually on January 1 for renewals. These plan designs generally result in us sharing a greater portion of the responsibility for total prescription drug costs in the early stages of the year and less in the latter stages, which typically results in a higher MBR on our Part D program in the first half of the year relative to the second half of the year.
Key Business Metrics
In addition to our GAAP financial information, we review a number of operating and financial metrics, including the following key metrics, to evaluate our business, measure our performance, identify trends affecting our business, formulate business plans and make strategic decisions.
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (dollars in '000's, except percentages) | 2021 | 2020 | % Change | |||||||||
| Health plan membership | 86,100 | 68,323 | 26.0 | % | ||||||||
| Medical benefits ratio | 87.6 | % | 82.6 | % | 5.0 | % | ||||||
| Revenues | $ | 1,167,773 | $ | 959,222 | 21.7 | % | ||||||
| Net loss attributable to Alignment Healthcare, Inc. | $ | (195,286 | ) | $ | (22,926 | ) | NM(2) | |||||
| Adjusted EBITDA(1) | $ | (33,116 | ) | $ | 11,852 | NM(2) | ||||||
| Adjusted gross profit (1) | $ | 144,370 | $ | 166,596 | -13.3 | % |
(1) See "Adjusted EBITDA" and "Adjusted Gross Profit" below for reconciliation to the most directly comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP and related disclosures.
(2) Not meaningful
Health Plan Membership
We define Health Plan Membership as the number of members enrolled in our HMO and PPO contracts (the “Alignment Health Plan”) as of the end of a reporting period. We believe this is an important metric to assess growth of our underlying business, which is indicative of our ability to consistently offer a superior value proposition to seniors. This metric excludes third party payor members with respect to which we are at-risk for managing their healthcare expenditures, which represented 600 members and 7,674 members as of December 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, respectively. It also excludes the approximately 5,400 traditional Medicare seniors for which we are at-risk for managing their healthcare expenditures through our DCE contracts with CMS.
Adjusted Gross Profit and Medical Benefits Ratio, or MBR
Adjusted gross profit is a non-GAAP financial measure that we define as loss from operations before depreciation and amortization, clinical equity-based compensation expense, and selling, general, and administrative expenses. Adjusted gross profit is a key measure used by our management and Board to understand and evaluate our operating performance and trends before the impact of our consolidated selling, general and administrative expenses.
Adjusted gross profit should not be considered in isolation of, or as an alternative to, measures prepared in accordance with GAAP. There are a number of limitations related to the use of Adjusted gross profit in lieu of loss from operations, which is the most directly comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP.
Our use of the term Adjusted gross profit may vary from the use of similar terms by other companies in our industry and accordingly may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies.
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Adjusted gross profit is reconciled as follows:
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | |||||||
| (dollars in thousands) | ||||||||
| Loss from operations | $ | (178,072 | ) | $ | (5,263 | ) | ||
| Add back: | ||||||||
| Equity-based compensation (medical expenses) | 15,418 | — | ||||||
| Depreciation (medical expenses) | 220 | 366 | ||||||
| Depreciation and amortization | 15,813 | 15,095 | ||||||
| Selling, general, and administrative expenses | 290,991 | 156,398 | ||||||
| Total add back | 322,442 | 171,859 | ||||||
| Adjusted gross profit | $ | 144,370 | $ | 166,596 | ||||
| Adjusted gross profit % | 12.4 | % | 17.4 | % |
We calculate our MBR by dividing total medical expenses, excluding depreciation and equity-based compensation, by total revenues in a given period. We believe our MBR is an indicator of our gross profit for our Medicare Advantage plans and demonstrates the ability of our clinical model to produce superior outcomes by identifying and providing targeted care to our high-risk members resulting in improved member health and reduced total population medical expenses. We expect that this metric may fluctuate over time due to a variety of factors, including our pace of new member growth given that new members typically join Alignment with higher MBRs, while our model has demonstrated an ability to improve MBR for a given cohort over time.
When we determine, on an annual basis, whether we have satisfied the CMS minimum Medical Loss Ratio (“MLR”) of 85%, adjustments are made to the MBR calculation to include certain additional expenses related to improving the quality of care provided, and to exclude certain taxes and fees, in each case as permitted or required by CMS and applicable regulatory requirements.
Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure that we define as net loss before interest expense, income taxes, depreciation and amortization expense, reorganization and transaction-related expenses and equity-based compensation expense. Adjusted EBITDA is a key measure used by our management and our Board to understand and evaluate our operating performance and trends, to prepare and approve our annual budget and to develop short and long-term operating plans. In particular, we believe that the exclusion of the amounts eliminated in calculating Adjusted EBITDA provides useful measures for period-to-period comparisons of our business. Given our intent to continue to invest in our platform and the scalability of our business in the short to medium-term, we believe Adjusted EBITDA over the long term will be an important indicator of value creation.
Adjusted EBITDA should not be considered in isolation of, or as an alternative to, measures prepared in accordance with GAAP. There are a number of limitations related to the use of Adjusted EBITDA in lieu of net loss, which is the most directly comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP.
Our use of the term Adjusted EBITDA may vary from the use of similar terms by other companies in our industry and accordingly may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies.
Adjusted EBITDA is reconciled as follows:
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | |||||||
| (dollars in thousands) | ||||||||
| Net loss attributable to Alignment Healthcare, Inc. | $ | (195,286 | ) | $ | (22,926 | ) | ||
| Add back: | ||||||||
| Interest expense | 17,443 | 16,931 | ||||||
| Depreciation and amortization | 16,033 | 15,461 | ||||||
| EBITDA | (161,810 | ) | 9,466 | |||||
| Equity-based compensation(1) | 121,999 | 2,124 | ||||||
| Reorganization and transaction-related expenses(2) | 4,585 | 262 | ||||||
| Acquisition expenses(3) | 2,110 | — | ||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA | $ | (33,116 | ) | $ | 11,852 |
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(1) 2021 represents equity-based compensation related to the timing of the IPO, including the previously issued stock appreciation rights ("SARs") liability awards, modifications related to transaction vesting units, and new grants made in conjunction with the IPO. 2020 represents equity-based compensation related to the Incentive Units (as defined in Footnote 1 to our consolidated financial statements, included in this Annual Report).
(2) Represents legal, professional, accounting and other advisory fees related to the Corporate Reorganization and the IPO that are considered non-recurring and non-capitalizable.
(3) Represents acquisition-related fees, such as legal and advisory fees, that are non-capitalizable.
Results of Operations
We operate and manage our business as a single reporting and operating segment, which is to provide healthcare services to our seniors. The components of our results of operations are as follows:
Revenues
Our revenue is comprised of earned premiums and other revenue. We receive and record premium revenue on a monthly basis from the federal government based on our contract with CMS. In accordance with this arrangement, we assume the responsibility for the outcomes and the economic risk of funding our members’ healthcare, supplemental benefits and related administration costs. We recognize premium revenue in the month that members are entitled to receive healthcare services, and premiums collected in advance are deferred. The monthly premium that we receive under our contract with CMS includes a PMPM which is adjusted based on certain risk factors derived from medical diagnoses for our members. The adjustments are estimated by projecting the ultimate annual premium and are recognized ratably during the year, with adjustments in each period to the amount of revenue recognized to reflect changes in the estimated ultimate premium. Premiums are also recorded net of estimated uncollectible amounts and retroactive membership adjustments.
Our recognized premium revenue for the Alignment Health Plan is subject to a minimum annual MLR of 85%. The MLR represents medical costs as a percentage of premium revenue. The Code of Federal Regulations defines what specifically constitutes medical expenses and premium revenue for the MLR test, and if the minimum MLR is not met, we are required to remit a portion of the premiums back to the federal government. The amount remitted, if any, is recognized as an adjustment to premium revenues in the consolidated statement of operations. There were no amounts payable for the MLR test as of December 31, 2021 or 2020.
The premiums we receive from CMS for our members are based on the annual bid that we submit to CMS. These payments represent revenues for providing healthcare coverage, including Medicare Part D benefits. Under the Medicare Part D program, members receive standard drug benefits. We may also provide enhanced benefits at our own expense. We recognize revenue for providing this insurance coverage in the month that members are entitled to receive healthcare services. Our CMS payment related to Medicare Part D is subject to risk sharing through the Medicare Part D risk corridor provisions. See “—Critical Accounting Policies—Revenue” below.
Our capitation revenue consists primarily of capitated fees for medical care services provided by us under arrangements with our third-party payors and from CMS related to our Direct Contracting Entities ("DCE"). Under those arrangements, we receive a PMPM payment for a defined member population, and we are responsible to provide health care services to the member population over the contract period. We are solely responsible for the cost of health care services related to the member population and in some cases, providing supplemental benefits provided by us to the members. We act as a principal in arranging for and controlling the services provided by our provider network and we are at risk for arranging and providing health care services. Capitation revenue is recognized in the month that members are entitled to receive health care services and capitation revenue collected in advance is deferred. We report this capitation revenue as part of earned premiums.
Expenses
Medical Expenses. Medical expenses includes claim payments, capitation payments, pharmacy costs net of rebates, allocations of certain centralized expenses, supplemental benefits, internal care delivery expenses and various other costs incurred to provide health insurance coverage to members, as well as estimates of future payments to hospitals and others for medical care previously provided to our members.
We have contracts with a network of hospitals, physicians, and other providers and compensate those providers and ancillary organizations based on contractual arrangements or CMS Medicare compensation guidelines. We pay these contracting providers either through fee-for-service arrangements in which the provider is paid negotiated rates for specific services provided, or through capitation payments, which represent monthly contractual fees disbursed for each member regardless of medical services provided to the member. We are ultimately responsible for the entirety of the cost of healthcare services related to our member population, in addition to supplemental benefits that we provide to our seniors.
Capitation-related expenses are recorded on an accrual basis during the coverage period. Expenses related to fee-for-service contracts are recorded in the period in which the related services are dispensed.
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Pharmacy costs represent payments for members’ prescription drug benefits, net of rebates from drug manufacturers. Receivables for such pharmacy rebates are included in accounts receivable in the consolidated balance sheet.
Selling, General and Administrative Expenses. Selling, general and administrative expenses consist of (i) personnel expenses including salaries, bonuses, equity-based compensation expense and benefits for non-clinical employees; (ii) all corporate technology, occupancy costs and allocated overhead costs; (iii) professional and outside services, including external vendors and professional services; (iv) costs associated with administering our contracts with CMS, including claims adjudication, member and concierge services, provider engagement, and other health plan functions; and (v) central and community-based advertising costs to generate greater awareness, engagement and retention among our current and prospective members, as well as the infrastructure required to support all of our marketing efforts and ongoing commission payments. These expenses also include certain growth expenditures, including business development and various new market expansion activities. Our investments in our sales, marketing and other growth activities are an important component of our SG&A in a typical year given our desire to continue to grow on an accelerated trajectory. We anticipate continuing to invest heavily in our growth efforts in the near future, which we believe will be an important driver of long-term value creation. We expect selling, general and administrative expenses to increase in absolute dollars as we incur costs associated with being a public company and growing our business.
Depreciation and Amortization. Depreciation and amortization expenses are primarily attributable to our capital investment and consist of fixed asset depreciation, amortization of intangibles considered to have definite lives and amortization of capitalized internal-use software costs.
Other Expense
Interest Expense. Interest expense consists primarily of interest payments on our outstanding borrowings under our Term Loan (as defined below). See “—Liquidity and Capital Resources—Term Loan.”
Other (Income) Expenses. Other (income) expenses consist primarily of gains or losses on the disposition of assets.
The following table sets forth our consolidated statements of operations data for the periods indicated:
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | |||||||
| (dollars in thousands) | ||||||||
| Revenues: | ||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 1,167,085 | $ | 955,393 | ||||
| Other | 688 | 3,829 | ||||||
| Total revenues | 1,167,773 | 959,222 | ||||||
| Expenses: | ||||||||
| Medical expenses | 1,039,041 | 792,992 | ||||||
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | 290,991 | 156,398 | ||||||
| Depreciation and amortization | 15,813 | 15,095 | ||||||
| Total expenses | 1,345,845 | 964,485 | ||||||
| Loss from operations | (178,072 | ) | (5,263 | ) | ||||
| Other expenses: | ||||||||
| Interest expense | 17,443 | 16,931 | ||||||
| Other (income) expenses | (229 | ) | 732 | |||||
| Total other expenses | 17,214 | 17,663 | ||||||
| Loss before income taxes | (195,286 | ) | (22,926 | ) | ||||
| Provision for income taxes | — | — | ||||||
| Net loss attributable to Alignment Healthcare, Inc. | $ | (195,286 | ) | $ | (22,926 | ) |
The following table sets forth our consolidated statements of operations data expressed as a percentage of total revenues for the periods indicated:
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| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | |||||||
| (% of revenue) | ||||||||
| Revenues: | ||||||||
| Earned premiums | 100 | % | 100 | % | ||||
| Other | — | — | ||||||
| Total revenues | 100 | 100 | ||||||
| Expenses: | ||||||||
| Medical expenses | 89 | 83 | ||||||
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | 25 | 16 | ||||||
| Depreciation and amortization | 1 | 2 | ||||||
| Total expenses | 115 | 101 | ||||||
| Loss from operations | (15 | ) | (1 | ) | ||||
| Other expenses: | ||||||||
| Interest expense | 2 | 2 | ||||||
| Other (income) expenses | — | — | ||||||
| Total other expenses | 2 | 2 | ||||||
| Loss before income taxes | (17 | ) | (2 | ) | ||||
| Provision for income taxes | — | — | ||||||
| Net loss attributable to Alignment Healthcare, Inc. | (17 | )% | (2 | )% |
Revenues
| Year Ended December 31, | Change | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | $ | % | |||||||||||||
| (dollars in thousands) | ||||||||||||||||
| Revenues: | ||||||||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 1,167,085 | $ | 955,393 | $ | 211,692 | 22.2 | % | ||||||||
| Other | 688 | $ | 3,829 | (3,141 | ) | (82.0 | )% | |||||||||
| Total revenues | $ | 1,167,773 | $ | 959,222 | $ | 208,551 | 21.7 | % |
Revenues. Revenues were $1,167.8 million and $959.2 million for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, an increase of $208.6 million or 21.7%. The increase was driven primarily by growth in Alignment’s Health Plan membership in 2021 as compared to 2020, which resulted in Health Plan premium revenue growth of 28.4% year over year for the year ended December 31, 2021. Health Plan premium revenue growth was offset by a reduction in capitation revenue from third party payors due to a contract that terminated on December 31, 2020.
Expenses
| Year Ended December 31, | Change | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | $ | % | |||||||||||||
| (dollars in thousands) | ||||||||||||||||
| Expenses: | ||||||||||||||||
| Medical expenses | $ | 1,039,041 | $ | 792,992 | $ | 246,049 | 31.0 | % | ||||||||
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | 290,991 | 156,398 | 134,593 | 86.1 | % | |||||||||||
| Depreciation and amortization | 15,813 | 15,095 | 718 | 4.8 | % | |||||||||||
| Total expenses | $ | 1,345,845 | $ | 964,485 | $ | 381,360 | 39.5 | % |
Medical Expenses. Medical expenses were $1,039.0 million and $793.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, an increase of $246.0 million, or 31.0%. The increase was driven primarily by growth in Alignment’s Health Plan membership in 2021 as compared to 2020. In addition, the increase was partially due to $15.4 million of equity-based compensation recorded to medical expenses related to the IPO. Overall, medical expenses grew at a higher rate than total revenues due to a combination of mix shift of membership away from Alignment's third-party payor members from 2020 to 2021, and the impact of COVID-19 on utilization in 2021. For January and February 2021, we experienced an increase in inpatient admissions due to COVID-related hospitalizations. The ultimate impact of COVID-19 to us and our financial condition is presently unknown and we continue to monitor the impact of COVID-19 on our claims reserve estimate.
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Selling, General and Administrative Expenses. Selling, general and administrative expenses were $291.0 million and $156.4 million for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, an increase of $134.6 million, or 86.1%. The increase was primarily due to equity-based compensation of $106.6 million. Excluding equity-based compensation for 2021, our, selling, general and administrative expenses increased 19.5% from 2020. The remaining increase was driven by ongoing investments and expenditures in network development and sales and marketing to drive the growth of Alignment’s Health Plan membership, continued hiring of employees to support that growth, and investments related to the IPO.
Depreciation and Amortization. Depreciation and amortization expense was $15.8 million and $15.1 million for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, an increase of $0.7 million, or 4.8%. The increase was primarily due to the amount and timing of our capital expenditures and the associated depreciation relative to 2020.
Other Expenses
Interest expense. Interest expense was $17.4 million and $16.9 million for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, an increase of $0.5 million or 2.9%. The increase in interest expense was primarily due to an increase in payment-in-kind interest of $4.0 million or 50%.
Other (income) expenses. Other (income) expenses were $(0.2) million and $0.7 million for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, a decrease of $0.9 million. The decrease in expenses was primarily due to losses on the disposal of assets in 2020 that did not recur in 2021.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
General
To date, we have financed our operations principally through our IPO, private placements of our equity securities, revenues, and a loan agreement with CR Group (“CRG”). As of December 31, 2021, we had $466.6 million in cash.
In addition, we operate as a holding company in a highly regulated industry. Alignment Healthcare, Inc., our parent company, is dependent upon dividends and administrative expense reimbursements from our subsidiaries, most of which are subject to regulatory restrictions. We continue to maintain significant levels of aggregate excess statutory capital and surplus in our state-regulated operating subsidiaries. Cash at the parent company was $371.8 million at December 31, 2021.
On November 18, 2021, certain selling stockholders, including the Lead Sponsors, sold 9,200,000 shares of our common stock. The Company did not sell any shares, nor did the Company share count increase or decrease as a result of the transaction. The Company did not receive any proceeds from the sale of shares by the selling stockholders.
We may incur operating losses in the future due to the investments we intend to continue to make in expanding our operations and sales and marketing and due to the general and administrative costs we expect to incur in connection with continuing to operate as a public company. As a result, we may require additional capital resources to execute strategic initiatives to grow our business.
We believe that our liquid assets, together with anticipated revenues from our operations, will be sufficient to fund our operating and organic capital needs for at least the next 12 months. Our assessment of the period of time through which our financial resources will be adequate to support our operations is a forward-looking statement and involves risks and uncertainties. Our actual results could vary because of, and our future capital requirements will depend on, many factors, including our growth rate, the timing and extent of spending to expand our presence in existing markets, expand into new markets and increase our sales and marketing activities. We may in the future enter into arrangements to acquire or invest in complementary businesses, services and technologies, including intellectual property rights. We have based this estimate on assumptions that may prove to be wrong, and we could use our available capital resources sooner than we currently expect. We may be required to seek additional equity or debt financing. In the event that additional financing is required from outside sources, we may not be able to raise it on terms acceptable to us or at all. If we are unable to raise additional capital when desired, or if we cannot expand our operations or otherwise capitalize on our business opportunities because we lack sufficient capital, our business, results of operations, and financial condition would be adversely affected
Certain states in which we operate as a CMS-licensed Medicare Advantage company may require us to meet certain capital adequacy performance standards and tests. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners has adopted rules which, if implemented by the states, set minimum capitalization requirements for insurance companies, HMOs, and other entities bearing risk for healthcare coverage. The requirements take the form of risk-based capital (“RBC”) rules, which may vary from state to state. Certain states in which our health plans or risk bearing entities operate have adopted the RBC rules. Other states in which our health plans or risk bearing entities operate have chosen not to adopt the RBC rules, but instead have designed and implemented their own rules regarding capital adequacy. Our health plans or risk-bearing entities were in compliance with the
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minimum capital requirements for all periods presented. See “Risk Factors—Risks Related to Regulation—State Regulation of Insurance-Related Products.”
Term Loan
On August 21, 2018, we entered into a term loan agreement (the "Term Loan") with CRG for $80.0 million, with an option to borrow up to an additional $20.0 million. In April 2019, we amended the Term Loan to increase its borrowing capacity by $75.0 million and drew down $35.0 million in May 2019. The Term Loan was subject to a commitment fee of $6.8 million and we incurred debt issuance costs of $3.6 million. The Term Loan matures in June 2023, at which time the full balance of the Term Loan, including the commitment fee and the payment-in-kind balance, will be due.
The commitment fees are deferred as part of debt issuance costs and are amortized to interest expense over the term using the effective interest method. The debt issuance costs are being amortized to interest expense over the term using the effective interest method.
The Term Loan bears interest at a rate of 10.25% payable on a quarterly basis. We have the option to pay a portion of the interest in cash with the remaining portion of the interest added to the principal balance as a payment-in-kind. The payment-in-kind is also subject to a commitment fee of 5%. The cash and payment-in-kind interest rates were 7.75% and 2.50%, respectively, through April 2019, and then converted to 7.50% and 2.75%, respectively. In 2021 and 2020, we utilized our option to pay the quarterly interest payments in both cash and payment-in-kind. Our total long-term debt balance of $154.1 million as of December 31, 2021 included the principal balance of $135.0 million, the initial commitment fee of $6.8 million, and the payment-in-kind interest on the principal balance of $12.0 million. The payment-in-kind interest on the principal balance is also subject to the commitment fee of $0.3 million for the year ended December 31, 2021. The amount was included in the long-term debt balance.
In addition, the Term Loan includes financial covenants regarding the maintenance of minimum liquidity of $6.0 million of operating cash, as defined, on a consolidated basis, at least $10.0 million in its cash accounts on a daily basis and minimum consolidated revenue amounts in the calendar years through 2022. As of December 31, 2021, we were in compliance with the financial covenants. The Term Loan is guaranteed by certain of our wholly owned subsidiaries and collateralized by all unrestricted assets.
Cash Flows
The following table presents a summary of our consolidated cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities for the periods indicated.
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (dollars in thousands) | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||
| Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities | $ | (78,776 | ) | $ | 7,561 | |||
| Net cash used in investing activities | (20,815 | ) | (16,358 | ) | ||||
| Net cash provided by financing activities | 360,130 | 130,124 | ||||||
| Net change in cash | 260,539 | 121,327 | ||||||
| Cash and restricted cash at beginning of period | 207,811 | 86,484 | ||||||
| Cash and restricted cash at end of period | $ | 468,350 | $ | 207,811 |
Operating Activities
For the year ended December 31, 2021, net cash used in operating activities was $78.8 million, a decrease of $86.4 million compared to net cash provided by operating activities of $7.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2020. Significant changes impacting net cash provided by operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2021 as compared to the year ended December 31, 2020 resulted from an increase in net loss offset by adjustments for non-cash items such as equity-based compensation and common stock payments. For the year ended December 31, 2021, net cash used in working capital, which is comprised of net cash provided by (used in) operating activities and cash used in the acquisition of property and equipment, was $97.1 million, a decrease of $89.0 million compared to $8.1 million for the year ended December 31, 2020. Significant changes include cash settlement of the SARs and reorganization and transaction-related expenses that occurred as part of the IPO, acquisition expenses, and an increase in accounts receivable due to growth.
Investing Activities
For the year ended December 31, 2021, net cash used in investing activities was $20.8 million, an increase of $4.4 million compared to net cash used in investing activities of $16.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2020. The increase primarily relates to incremental capital expenditures related to information technology and infrastructure projects.
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Financing Activities
For the year ended December 31, 2021, net cash provided by financing activities was $360.1 million, an increase of $230.0 million compared to net cash provided by financing activities of $130.1 million for the year ended December 31, 2020. The increase primarily relates to proceeds from the IPO in the first quarter of 2021, which was higher than the funding received in 2020.
Material cash requirements from known contractual and other obligations
Our principal commitments consist of repayments of long-term debt, operating leases and certain purchase obligations. The following table summarizes our contractual and other obligations as of December 31, 2021:
| Payments due by Period | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Less than 1 year | 1-3 years | 3-5 years | More than 5 years | |||||||||||||||
| Long-term debt obligations(1) | $ | 160,990 | $ | — | $ | 160,990 | $ | — | $ | — | |||||||||
| Operating lease obligations | 11,213 | 4,126 | 7,087 | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| Purchase obligations(2) | 16,410 | 9,536 | 6,874 | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| Other obligations | 474 | 173 | 301 | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 189,087 | $ | 13,835 | $ | 175,252 | $ | — | $ | — |
(1) Represents the estimated full cash repayment to our lender upon maturity of the Term Loan in June 2023, including the anticipated commitment fees and payments-in-kind balance.
(2) Includes fixed, minimum and estimated payments under our existing contractual obligations that are legally enforceable and binding for goods and services. These obligations include agreements that are cancelable with the payment of an early termination penalty and other funding commitments that require fixed or minimum levels of service to be purchased with a specific timing established. Purchase obligations exclude agreements that are cancelable without penalty.
Not included in the table above are our medical expenses payable which are included within current liabilities in our financial statements included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates
The discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations are based upon our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles and include the accounts of our wholly-owned subsidiaries and three variable interest entities (“VIEs”) in California and North Carolina that meet the consolidation requirements for accounting purposes. All intercompany transactions have been eliminated in consolidation. Noncontrolling interest is presented within the equity section of our consolidated balance sheets.
Certain accounting policies involve significant judgments and assumptions by management, which have a material impact on the carrying value of assets and liabilities and the recognition of income and expenses. Management considers these accounting policies to be critical accounting policies. The estimates and assumptions used by management are based on historical experience and other factors, which are believed to be reasonable under the circumstances. The significant accounting policies which we believe are the most critical to aid in fully understanding and evaluating our reported financial results are described below. Refer to Note 2 “Summary of Significant Accounting Policies” to our audited consolidated financial statements for more detailed information regarding our critical accounting policies.
Revenue
Payments by CMS to health plans are determined through a competitive bidding process with CMS and are based on the cost of care in a local market and the average utilization of services by the member enrolled. These payments are subject to periodic adjustments under CMS’s “risk adjustment model,” which compensates health plans based on the health severity and certain demographic factors of each individual member. Members diagnosed with certain conditions are paid at a higher monthly payment than members who are healthier. Under this risk adjustment model, CMS calculates the risk adjustment payment using diagnosis data from hospital inpatient, hospital outpatient and physician treatment settings. We and healthcare providers collect, capture, and submit the necessary and available diagnosis data to CMS within prescribed deadlines. Both premium and capitation revenue (including Medicare Part D) are subject to adjustments under the risk adjustment model.
Throughout the year, we estimate risk adjustment payments based upon the diagnosis data submitted and expected to be submitted to CMS. The risk adjustment payments are recorded as an adjustment to premium and capitation revenue. Our risk adjustment data is also subject to review by the government, including audit by regulators.
Receivables, including risk adjusted premium due from the government or through third-party payors, pharmacy rebates, and other receivables, are shown net of allowances for estimated uncollectible accounts and retroactive membership adjustments.
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Medical Expenses Payable
Medical expenses payable includes estimates of our obligations for medical care services that have been rendered on behalf of our members and the members of third-party payors, but for which claims have either not yet been received or processed, loss adjustment expense reserve for the expected costs of settling these claims, and for liabilities related to physician, hospital and other medical cost disputes.
We develop estimates for medical expenses incurred but not yet paid (“IBNP”) which includes an estimate for claims incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) and a payable for adjudicated claims. IBNR is estimated using an actuarial process that is consistently applied and centrally controlled. Medical expenses payable also includes an estimate for the costs necessary to process unpaid claims at the end of each period. We estimate IBNR liability using actuarial methods that are commonly used by health insurance actuaries and meet Actuarial Standards of Practice. These actuarial methods consider factors, such as cost trends and completion factors that are assessed based on historical data for payment patterns, product mix, seasonality, utilization of health care services, and other relevant factors.
Completion Factors. A completion factor is an actuarial estimate, based upon historical experience and analysis of current trends, of the percentage of incurred claims during a given period adjudicated by us at the date of estimation. Completion factors are the most significant factors we use in developing our medical expenses payable estimates for periods prior to the most recent three months. Completion factors include judgments in relation to claim submissions such as the time from date of service to claim receipt, claim levels and processing cycles, as well as other factors. If actual claims submission rates from providers (which can be influenced by a number of factors, including provider mix and electronic versus manual submissions) or our claim processing patterns are different than estimated, our reserve estimates may be significantly impacted.
The following table illustrates the sensitivity of these factors and the estimated potential impact on our medical expenses payable estimates for those periods as of December 31, 2021:
| Completion Factors | Increase (Decrease) In Medical Expenses Payable | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Decrease) Increase in Factors | ||||
| (in thousands) | ||||
| (3)% | $ | 11,149 | ||
| (2) | 7,432 | |||
| (1) | 3,716 | |||
| 1 | (3,716 | ) | ||
| 2 | (7,432 | ) | ||
| 3 | (11,149 | ) |
Medical Cost Per Member Per Month Trend Factors. Medical cost PMPM trend factors are significant factors we use in developing our medical expenses payable estimates for the most recent three months. Medical cost trend factors are developed through a comprehensive analysis of claims incurred in prior months, provider contracting and expected unit costs, benefit design and a review of a broad set of health care utilization indicators. These factors include but are not limited to pharmacy utilization trends, inpatient hospital authorization data and influenza incidence data from the National Centers for Disease Control. We also consider macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, employment and disposable income. A large number of factors can cause the medical cost trend to vary from our estimates, including: our ability and practices to manage medical and pharmaceutical costs, changes in level and mix of services utilized; mix of benefits offered, including the impact of co-pays and deductibles; changes in medical practices; and catastrophes, epidemics and pandemics, such as COVID-19.
The following table illustrates the sensitivity of these factors and the estimated potential impact on our medical expenses payable estimates for the most recent two months as of December 31, 2021:
| Medical Cost PMPM Quarterly Trend | Increase (Decrease) In Medical Expenses Payable | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increase (Decrease) in Factors | ||||
| (in thousands) | ||||
| 3% | $ | 2,472 | ||
| 2 | 1,648 | |||
| 1 | 824 | |||
| (1) | (824 | ) | ||
| (2) | (1,648 | ) | ||
| (3) | (2,472 | ) |
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Each period, we re-examine previously established IBNR estimates based on actual claim submissions and other changes in facts and circumstances. As the IBNR estimates recorded in prior periods develop, we adjust the amount of the estimates and include the changes in estimates in medical expenses in the period in which the change is identified.
Actuarial Standards of Practice generally require that the IBNP estimates be adequate to cover obligations under moderately adverse conditions. Moderately adverse conditions are situations in which the actual claims are expected to be higher than the otherwise estimated value of such claims at the time of estimate.
In many situations, the claims amount ultimately settled will be different than the estimate that satisfies the Actuarial Standards of Practice. We include in our IBNP an estimate for medical claims liability under moderately adverse conditions, which represents the risk of adverse deviation of the estimates in its actuarial method of reserving.
We believe that medical expenses payable is adequate to cover future claims payments required. However, such estimates are based on knowledge of current events and anticipated future events. Therefore, the actual liability could differ materially from the amounts provided. The following tables provide information about incurred and paid claims development as of December 31, 2021:
| Cumulative Incurred Claims, net of reinsurance for the Years Ended December 31, | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claims Incurred Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||||||||
| 2019 | $ | 274,871 | $ | 256,810 | $ | 253,759 | |||||
| 2020 | 281,124 | 276,111 | |||||||||
| 2021 | 327,224 | ||||||||||
| Total | $ | 857,094 |
| Cumulative Claims paid, net of reinsurance for the Years Ended December 31, | Cumulative Number of Paid Claims | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claims Incurred Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | $ | 196,086 | $ | 251,507 | $ | 255,628 | 410,500 | ||||||||
| 2020 | 206,288 | 275,016 | 336,212 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | 251,629 | 234,191 | |||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 782,273 |
Substantially all of the claims incurred but not paid balance as of December 31, 2021 relates to the current year.
There is no single or common claim frequency metric used in the health care industry. We believe a relevant metric for our health insurance business is the cumulative number of claims paid for each incurred year. Claims that did not result in a liability are not included in the frequency metric.
Recent Accounting Pronouncements
See Note 2 to our audited consolidated financial statements “Summary of Significant Accounting Policies—Recent Accounting Pronouncements Adopted” for more information.