CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INC. (CLF) FY 2022 MD&A
This page reproduces the company's own Item 7 MD&A text from the linked SEC filing. It is filer text, not grepcent analysis, scoring, or investment advice.
ITEM 7. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations is designed to provide a reader of our financial statements with a narrative from the perspective of management on our financial condition, results of operations, liquidity and other factors that may affect our future results. The following discussion should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and related notes that appear in Part II – Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations included in this report discusses our financial condition and results of operations as of and for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021. A discussion related to our financial condition and results of operations for 2021 as compared to 2020 can be found in Part II, Item 7., "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations," of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, filed with the SEC on February 11, 2022.
OVERVIEW
Throughout 2022, we continued to position the Company for long-term success as we generated record revenues, executed our commercial initiatives by improving our average selling prices, revamped our operational footprint, secured multi-year labor agreements with the majority of our USW employees, displayed the unique advantage of our U.S.-centric, internally sourced feedstock and continued to improve our balance sheet.
2022 HIGHLIGHTS
•Record revenues of $23 billion
•Second-highest Adjusted EBITDA in company history (second only to 2021)
•Reduced net pension and OPEB liabilities by $2.1 billion
•Reduced outstanding debt by $1.1 billion, including $351 million of open market repurchases
•Increased year-over-year average steel selling price despite significantly lower commodity flat-rolled steel pricing
•Improved commercial contracts by generating substantial increases for our fixed price contracts
•Agreed to 4-year labor agreements with the USW covering 14,000 total employees
•Completed major maintenance cycle, including the reline of the Cleveland #5 blast furnace
•Benefited from vertically integrated footprint amidst raw material shortages related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
•Returned $240 million in capital to shareholders through share repurchase program
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•Continued progress toward our goal of reducing GHG emissions
•Celebrated 175th anniversary as a company
We also continued our best practices from both a safety and environmental standpoint. During 2022, our safety TRIR (including contractors) was 1.36 per 200,000 hours worked. Throughout 2022, we made continued progress towards our goal of reducing GHG emissions with our optimal utilization of HBI and scrap throughout our facilities, as well as more efficient power generation through recycling of off-gases. We have also formed a partnership with the DOE as part of the Better Climate Challenge initiative, as we aim to build on our GHG emission reduction progress. We continue to pursue opportunities such as carbon capture and the use of hydrogen within our facilities. Additionally, we have started forming partnerships to develop renewable energy sources - such as wind, solar and hydrogen - which will benefit our own environmental footprint while combating the global impacts of climate change.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 | Column 4 | Column 5 | Column 6 | Column 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | Net Income (Loss) | Adjusted EBITDA | Diluted EPS |
See "— Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below for a reconciliation of our Net income (loss) to Adjusted EBITDA.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Steel market conditions in 2022 were notably volatile, driven by disruptions due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, continued supply chain issues, significantly higher energy prices and declines in demand as a result of recessionary fears. The price for domestic HRC, the most significant index impacting our revenues and profitability, averaged $1,011 per net ton for 2022, 36% lower than 2021, but well above the prior ten-year average of $712 per net ton. HRC prices receded below $700 per net ton in the fourth quarter of 2022, the lowest level since October 2020. The large decline in spot steel prices was driven by service center destocking, interest rate hikes driving caution on new business and declining metallics prices, which were driven by lower domestic steel production and excess raw material inventory. Continued automotive supply chain difficulties also limited the demand for steel from automotive manufacturers. Looking forward, we expect domestic steel demand to improve as imports have become less attractive, service centers restock inventory, automotive supply chain issues ease and incremental steel demand from the Infrastructure and Jobs Act is realized.
The recently passed CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act should provide meaningful support for overall domestic steel demand in the coming years. Our extensive portfolio of products should result in increased steel demand from some of our end markets. The CHIPS Act promotes semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S., which should help support non-residential construction. Additionally, on-shoring manufacturing in the U.S. should reduce risk of supply chain issues in the future. The Inflation Reduction Act provides a tax credit for consumers who buy new EVs, which further incentivizes consumers to purchase vehicles in an environment where pent-up demand is still very strong from recent supply chain issues and low dealer inventory levels. In addition, the Inflation Reduction Act provides incentives for the use of domestic steel for investments in clean energy projects, including wind and solar projects, which consume a substantial amount of steel. Additional projects from the legislation could create incremental demand for our galvanized, GOES, NOES and other steel products. We expect to benefit from the spending related to the recently passed legislation in 2023 and beyond.
The largest market for our steel products is the automotive industry in North America, which makes light vehicle production a key driver of demand. During 2022, North American light vehicle production was approximately 14.3 million units, the highest annual production volume since 2019. While we have seen modest improvement, automotive production remains below historical levels and continues to be adversely affected by the global semiconductor shortage, as well as other material shortages and supply chain disruptions. This has caused several outages amongst light vehicle manufacturers. The long-term outlook for the automotive industry remains positive as pent-up demand is strong due to ongoing production and supply chain issues. Inventory levels have recently reached the highest level since April 2021, with 1.7 million units of gross stock at the end of 2022, but remain significantly below historical average inventory levels of 2.5 to 3.0 million units of gross stock. Additionally, the average age of cars on the road in the U.S. reached an all-time high during 2022, which should support demand as older vehicles need to be replaced. As the largest supplier of automotive-grade steel in the U.S., we expect to benefit from increased vehicle production in coming years.
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted raw material sourcing for our EAF competitors and has further increased the volatility in their steelmaking input costs. Approximately two-thirds of all U.S. imported pig iron, an important feedstock for flat-rolled steel producing EAFs, has historically been sourced from Russia and Ukraine. Imported pig iron prices
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averaged $687 per metric ton during 2022, which is significantly above the historical average of $440 per metric ton from September 2017 to December 2021. The recent decline from record levels in pricing is primarily due to lower domestic steel production and surplus raw material inventory as competitors purchased excess raw materials at the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to ensure sufficient supply in a time of uncertainty. Higher than historical imported pig iron costs should continue to support a higher HRC price. Unlike other flat-rolled producers, we are not reliant on imported pig iron as we produce it in-house at our blast furnaces, using our own iron ore as the primary raw material.
The price for busheling scrap, a necessary input for flat-rolled steel production in EAFs in the U.S., averaged well above the historical ten-year average of $380 per long ton in 2022 and 2021. The busheling price averaged $533 per long ton in 2022 and $602 per long ton in 2021. Pricing fell to $350 per long ton during the fourth quarter of 2022, as domestic steel capacity utilization rates declined below 80% and competitors worked through excess raw material inventory. As prime scrap is a replacement to imported pig iron, we expect the busheling scrap price will continue to average at or above historical levels as the availability of imported pig iron from Russia and Ukraine remains disrupted. We expect the supply of busheling scrap to further tighten due to decreasing prime scrap generation from original equipment manufacturers and the growth of EAF capacity in the U.S., along with a push for expanded scrap use globally. As we are fully integrated and have primarily a blast furnace footprint, increased prices for busheling scrap in the U.S. bolster our competitive advantage, as we source the majority of our iron feedstock from our stable-cost mining and pelletizing operations in Minnesota and Michigan.
As for iron ore, the Platts 62% price averaged $120 per metric ton in 2022, which is 23% higher than the historical ten-year average. While higher iron ore prices play a role in increased steel prices, we also directly benefit from higher iron ore prices for the portion of iron ore pellets we sell to third parties.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has pushed interest rates to the highest level in 15 years in an attempt to slow demand and reduce inflation. Though we are a firm believer that the U.S. is the most resilient manufacturing economy in the world, rising interest rates could cause a significant economic downturn and impact various end markets that we serve and overall domestic steel demand. While we believe there is strong pent-up demand for light vehicles in the U.S., automotive sales could be negatively impacted due to higher interest rates. The non-residential construction market could also see delays in construction as increased rates drive caution on new business. If continued rising rates in the U.S. result in a recession, we believe that end-user demand for steel intensive products could be negatively impacted as a recession would likely result in higher unemployment, lower wages and less disposable income for consumers.
During 2022, we experienced higher costs than the prior year due to inflationary pressures on input and energy costs, as well as lower production volume and higher repair and maintenance spending. We expect to benefit from lower costs in 2023 and beyond as most inflationary items have started to ease, production volume improves, and repair and maintenance expenses normalize.
STEELMAKING RESULTS
COMPARISON OF 2022 TO 2021
The following is a summary of our Steelmaking segment results included in our consolidated financial statements for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021. The results for 2021 include the FPT operations subsequent to November 18, 2021 and full-year results for all other Steelmaking operations.
The following is a summary of the Steelmaking segment operating results:
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 | Column 4 | Column 5 | Column 6 | Column 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | Gross Margin | Adjusted EBITDA | Steel Shipments (nt) |
| 2021 | 2022 | 2021 | 2022 | 2021 | 2022 | 2021 | 2022 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEEL PRODUCT REVENUE: | GROSS MARGIN %: | ADJUSTED EBITDA %: | AVERAGE SELLING PRICE PER TON OF STEEL PRODUCTS: | |||||||||
| $18,850 | $ | 20,054 | 23% | 11% | 27% | 14% | $1,187 | $1,360 |
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REVENUE
The following tables represent our steel shipments by product and total sales by market:
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2021 | |||||||||||||
| (In thousands of net tons) | Volume | % | Volume | % | % Change | |||||||||
| Steel shipments by product: | ||||||||||||||
| Hot-rolled steel | 4,326 | 29 | % | 4,886 | 31 | % | (11) | % | ||||||
| Cold-rolled steel | 2,286 | 16 | % | 2,790 | 18 | % | (18) | % | ||||||
| Coated steel | 4,730 | 32 | % | 5,056 | 32 | % | (6) | % | ||||||
| Stainless and electrical steel | 763 | 5 | % | 674 | 4 | % | 13 | % | ||||||
| Plate | 880 | 6 | % | 1,020 | 6 | % | (14) | % | ||||||
| Slab and other steel products | 1,766 | 12 | % | 1,460 | 9 | % | 21 | % | ||||||
| Total steel shipments by product | 14,751 | 15,886 | (7) | % | ||||||||||
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 2021 | |||||||||||||
| (In millions) | Revenue | % | Revenue | % | % Change | |||||||||
| Steelmaking revenues by market: | ||||||||||||||
| Direct automotive | $ | 6,661 | 30 | % | $ | 4,726 | 24 | % | 41 | % | ||||
| Infrastructure and manufacturing | 5,869 | 26 | % | 5,380 | 27 | % | 9 | % | ||||||
| Distributors and converters | 6,388 | 29 | % | 7,671 | 38 | % | (17) | % | ||||||
| Steel producers | 3,465 | 15 | % | 2,124 | 11 | % | 63 | % | ||||||
| Total steelmaking revenues by market | $ | 22,383 | $ | 19,901 | 12 | % |
Revenues increased by 12% during the year ended December 31, 2022, as compared to the prior-year, primarily due to:
•An increase in the direct automotive market of $1,935 million, or 41%, predominantly due to increases in selling prices as a result of favorable renewals of annual fixed price contracts.
•An increase in sales to the steel producers market of $1,341 million, or 63%, which was primarily driven by the inclusion of full-year results from the FPT Acquisition.
•These increases were partially offset by a decrease in the distributors and converters market of $1,283 million, or 17%, predominantly due to service center destocking, interest rate hikes driving caution on new business and pricing for metallics declining, which caused weaker demand from service centers for our steel products and large declines in spot steel pricing.
GROSS MARGIN
Gross margin decreased by $2,053 million, or 45%, during the year ended December 31, 2022, as compared to the prior-year, primarily due to:
•Increased costs of production (approximately $3.6 billion impact) driven by higher raw materials and utility costs, including natural gas, coal, coke, alloys and scrap, coupled with increased investment in maintenance and labor costs; and
•A decrease in sales volumes (approximately $700 million impact) predominantly driven by lower shipments to the distributors and converters end market due to weaker demand.
•This was partially offset by an increase in selling prices (approximately $2.5 billion impact) driven by favorable renewals of annual sales contracts.
ADJUSTED EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA from our Steelmaking segment for the year ended December 31, 2022, decreased by $2,191 million, as compared to 2021, primarily due to the decreased gross margin from our operations. Additionally, our Steelmaking Adjusted EBITDA included $439 million and $392 million of Selling, general and administrative expenses for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively.
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CONSOLIDATED RESULTS
COMPARISON OF 2022 TO 2021
REVENUES & GROSS MARGIN
During the year ended December 31, 2022, our consolidated Revenues increased by $2,545 million, compared to 2021. The increase was primarily due to the increase in the average steel product selling price of $173 per net ton and the inclusion of full-year results from the FPT Acquisition, partially offset by the decrease of 1.1 million net tons of steel shipments from our Steelmaking segment.
During the year ended December 31, 2022, our consolidated gross margin decreased by $2,016 million, as compared to 2021. See "— Steelmaking Results" above for further detail on our operating results.
SELLING, GENERAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES
Selling, general and administrative expenses increased by $43 million during the year ended December 31, 2022, as compared to 2021. The increase primarily relates to the inclusion of full-year results for the FPT Acquisition in 2022. Additionally, there were increases related to salaries and benefits and external service costs, partially offset by lower incentive compensation.
MISCELLANEOUS – NET
Miscellaneous – net increased by $30 million for the year ended December 31, 2022, as compared to 2021. The increase in miscellaneous expense was primarily due to the $29 million asset impairment charge associated with the permanent closure of Mountain State Carbon and an increase in idle expenses. These increases were partially offset by the acquisition-related loss on equity method investment during 2021, which was not repeated in 2022.
INTEREST EXPENSE, NET
Interest expense, net decreased by $61 million for the year ended December 31, 2022, as compared to the prior year. The decrease was primarily due to debt reduction activities during 2021 and 2022, which reduced interest expense on our senior notes. The decrease was partially offset by an increase in the ABL Facility interest expense primarily as a result of rising interest rates.
LOSS ON EXTINGUISHMENT OF DEBT
The loss on extinguishment of debt of $75 million for the year ended December 31, 2022 primarily resulted from the redemption of all $607 million aggregate principal amount of our outstanding 9.875% 2025 Senior Secured Notes in April 2022 and the redemption of all $294 million aggregate principal amount of our outstanding 1.500% 2025 Convertible Senior Notes in January 2022. The losses were partially offset by the net gain on extinguishment for the repurchase of $417 million aggregate principal amount of our outstanding IRBs and senior notes of various series.
The loss on extinguishment of debt of $88 million for the year ended December 31, 2021 primarily resulted from the redemption of $396 million aggregate principal amount of 5.750% 2025 Senior Notes, $395 million aggregate principal amount of 4.875% 2024 Senior Secured Notes and $347 million aggregate principal amount of 9.875% 2025 Senior Secured Notes.
Refer to NOTE 8 - DEBT AND CREDIT FACILITIES for further details.
INCOME TAXES
Our effective tax rate is affected by permanent items, primarily depletion. It also is affected by discrete items that may occur in any given period but are not consistent from period to period. The following represents a summary of our tax provision and corresponding effective rates:
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In millions) | 2022 | 2021 | ||||
| Income tax expense | $ | (423) | $ | (773) | ||
| Effective tax rate | 23 | % | 20 | % |
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A reconciliation of our income tax attributable to continuing operations compared to the U.S. federal statutory rate is as follows:
| Year Ended December 31, | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In millions) | 2022 | 2021 | |||||||||||
| Tax at U.S. statutory rate | $ | 377 | 21 | % | $ | 799 | 21 | % | |||||
| Increase (decrease) due to: | |||||||||||||
| Percentage depletion in excess of cost depletion | (49) | (3) | (99) | (3) | |||||||||
| State taxes, net | 71 | 4 | 86 | 2 | |||||||||
| Federal & state provision to return | 27 | 1 | (2) | — | |||||||||
| Other items, net | (3) | — | (11) | — | |||||||||
| Provision for income tax expense and effective income tax rate including discrete items | $ | 423 | 23 | % | $ | 773 | 20 | % |
The decrease in income tax expense in 2022, as compared to the prior year, is directly related to the decrease in the pre-tax book income year-over-year.
See NOTE 11 - INCOME TAXES for further information.
CASH FLOW, LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
OVERVIEW
Our capital allocation decision-making process is focused on preserving healthy liquidity levels while maintaining the strength of our balance sheet and creating financial flexibility to manage through the cyclical demand for our products and volatility in commodity prices. We are focused on maximizing the cash generation of our operations, reducing debt, returning capital to shareholders and aligning capital investments with our strategic priorities and the requirements of our business plan, including regulatory and permission-to-operate related projects.
The following table provides a summary of our cash flows:
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In millions) | 2022 | 2021 | ||||
| Cash flows provided by (used in): | ||||||
| Operating activities | $ | 2,423 | $ | 2,785 | ||
| Investing activities | (936) | (1,379) | ||||
| Financing activities | (1,509) | (1,470) | ||||
| Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents | $ | (22) | $ | (64) | ||
| Free cash flow1 | $ | 1,480 | $ | 2,080 | ||
| 1See "— Non-GAAP Financial Measures" for a reconciliation of our free cash flows. |
The recent market environment has provided us opportunities to reduce our debt and return capital to shareholders with our own free cash flow generation. We also continue to look at the composition of our debt, as we are interested in both extending our average maturity length and increasing our ratio of unsecured debt to secured debt, which can be accomplished with cash provided by operating activities. During 2022, we took action in alignment with our capital allocation priorities, as follows:
•We redeemed all $294 million in aggregate principal amount outstanding of our 1.500% 2025 Convertible Senior Notes,$66 million aggregate principal amount outstanding of the IRBs and $607 million remaining aggregate principal amount outstanding of our 9.875% 2025 Senior Secured Notes; and
•We repurchased $351 million in aggregate principal amount of our outstanding senior notes of various series at an average price of 92% of par.
•Additionally, we returned capital to shareholders through our share repurchase program, repurchasing 12.5 million common shares at a cost of $240 million in the aggregate.
These actions give us additional financial flexibility and will better prepare us to navigate more easily through potentially volatile industry conditions in the future, while also prudently reducing our common share count.
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OPERATING ACTIVITIES
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In millions) | 2022 | 2021 | Variance | |||||||
| Net income | $ | 1,376 | $ | 3,033 | $ | (1,657) | ||||
| Non-cash adjustments to net income | 1,218 | 1,949 | (731) | |||||||
| Income taxes | (22) | (136) | 114 | |||||||
| Pension and OPEB payments and contributions | (204) | (343) | 139 | |||||||
| Working capital (receivables, inventories, payables and other liabilities) | 55 | (1,718) | 1,773 | |||||||
| Net cash provided by operating activities | $ | 2,423 | $ | 2,785 | $ | (362) |
The variance was driven by:
•A $1,657 million increase in net income after adjustments for non-cash items due to lower gross margins from lower steel sales volume and higher costs. See "— Steelmaking Results" above for further detail on our operating results.
•A $139 million decrease in payments and contributions relating to pension and OPEB plans resulting from improvements to our pension plans' funded status. The 2021 pension contributions also included $118 million in deferred 2020 pension contributions in connection with the CARES Act.
•A $1,773 million decrease in cash used for working capital primarily driven by lower increases in accounts receivable and inventories. In 2021, accounts receivable increased due to the unwind of the ArcelorMittal USA factoring agreement as well as rising revenue. Inventories also increased more in 2021 due to the global semiconductor shortage as well as higher raw material costs. During 2022, our inventory units declined but this was predominantly offset by higher costs.
INVESTING ACTIVITIES
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In millions) | 2022 | 2021 | Variance | |||||||
| Purchase of property, plant and equipment | $ | (943) | $ | (705) | $ | (238) | ||||
| Acquisitions, net of cash acquired | (31) | (707) | 676 | |||||||
| Other | 38 | 33 | 5 | |||||||
| Net cash used by investing activities | $ | (936) | $ | (1,379) | $ | 443 |
The variance was driven by:
•A $238 million increase in cash used for capital expenditures primarily relating to sustaining capital expenditures, including the completion of a reline of blast furnace #5 at Cleveland Works during the third quarter of 2022. Sustaining capital spend includes infrastructure, mobile equipment, fixed equipment, product quality, environmental and health and safety.
•A $676 million decrease in cash used for acquisitions primarily relating to the FPT Acquisition made in 2021.
FINANCING ACTIVITIES
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In millions) | 2022 | 2021 | Variance | |||||||
| Series B Redeemable Preferred Stock redemption | $ | — | $ | (1,343) | $ | 1,343 | ||||
| Net repayments of debt | (1,358) | (372) | (986) | |||||||
| Net borrowings under credit facilities | 255 | 73 | 182 | |||||||
| Net issuance (repurchase) of common shares | (240) | 322 | (562) | |||||||
| Other | (166) | (150) | (16) | |||||||
| Net cash used by financing activities | $ | (1,509) | $ | (1,470) | $ | (39) |
The variance was driven by:
•A $1,343 million decrease in cash used in 2022 resulting from the Series B Redeemable Preferred Stock redemption in 2021.
•A $804 million increase in cash used resulting from higher net repayments of debt in 2022, partially offset by increased borrowings on our ABL Facility, as compared to the prior-year.
•A $562 million increase in cash used to repurchase 12.5 million common shares in 2022, compared to 20.0 million common shares issued in 2021.
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LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Our primary sources of liquidity are Cash and cash equivalents, cash generated from our operations, availability under the ABL Facility and access to capital markets. We generally maintain minimal cash balances and utilize our access to our ABL Facility to cover fluctuations in our cash requirements. Cash and cash equivalents, which totaled $26 million as of December 31, 2022, include cash on hand and on deposit. The combination of cash and availability under our ABL Facility gives us $2.5 billion in liquidity as of December 31, 2022. We believe our liquidity and access to capital markets will be adequate to fund our cash requirements for the next 12 months and for the foreseeable future.
The ABL Facility, which matures in March 2025, has a maximum borrowing base of $4.5 billion, determined by applying customary advance rates to eligible accounts receivable, inventory and certain mobile equipment. The ABL Facility includes a $555 million sublimit for the issuance of letters of credit and a $200 million sublimit for swingline loans. As of December 31, 2022, outstanding letters of credit totaled $150 million, which reduced availability. We issue standby letters of credit with certain financial institutions in order to support business obligations, including, but not limited to, workers' compensation, employee severance, insurance, operating agreements and environmental obligations. The ABL Facility agreement contains various financial and other covenants. As of December 31, 2022, we were in compliance with all of our ABL Facility covenants.
We have the capability to issue additional unsecured notes and, subject to the limitations set forth in our existing senior notes indentures, additional secured debt, if we elect to access the debt capital markets. However, our ability to issue additional notes could be limited by market conditions. We intend from time to time to seek to redeem or repurchase our outstanding senior notes with cash on hand, borrowings from existing credit sources or new debt financings and/or exchanges for debt or equity securities, in open market purchases, privately negotiated transactions or otherwise. Such redemptions or repurchases, if any, will depend on prevailing market conditions, our liquidity requirements, contractual restrictions and other factors, and the amounts involved may be material.
Refer to NOTE 8 - DEBT AND CREDIT FACILITIES for more information on our ABL Facility and debt.
MATERIAL CASH REQUIREMENTS
We have material cash requirements for known contractual obligations and commitments for the following:
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
We anticipate total cash used for capital expenditures during the next 12 months to be between $700 and $750 million, which primarily consists of sustaining capital spend. With our facilities and equipment in the best shape since the acquisition, we do not expect any major investments until at least 2025.
PURCHASE OBLIGATIONS
In the normal course of business, we are a party to certain off-balance sheet arrangements that are not reflected on our Statements of Consolidated Financial Position. These arrangements include minimum "take or pay" purchase commitments, such as minimum electric power demand charges, minimum coal, diesel and natural gas purchase commitments, minimum railroad transportation commitments and minimum port facility usage commitments. Refer to NOTE 20 - COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCIES for further information.
DEBT
We have principal long-term debt of $4,306 million with maturities starting in 2025. Refer to NOTE 8 - DEBT AND CREDIT FACILITIES for further information on our long-term debt and interest.
LEASE OBLIGATIONS
We have future minimum lease payments under noncancellable finance and operating leases. As of December 31, 2022, the current and long-term liabilities for our lease obligations were $136 million and $317 million, respectively. Refer to NOTE 12 - LEASE OBLIGATIONS for further information.
POST-RETIREMENT EMPLOYEE BENEFITS
We make both required and discretionary pension contributions. Required contributions are based on minimum funding requirements pursuant to ERISA regulations. We expect to make $32 million in contributions in 2023. Contributions in future years can significantly change and will depend on the actual returns on assets, discount rates, government regulations, changes to employee benefits through labor agreements and other demographic factors. The cash requirements for our OPEB plans consist of VEBA contributions and direct payments from corporate assets primarily for medical and drug costs. During 2022, we negotiated favorable Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug healthcare rates, which went into effect January 1, 2023. We also paused the contribution requirement to the Cleveland-Cliffs Steel LLC VEBA plan as part of the 2022 USW labor negotiations. The reduction in retiree healthcare rates and pause on the VEBA funding requirements is expected to reduce our use of cash from $198 million in 2022 to $73 million in 2023. Refer to NOTE 9 - PENSIONS AND OTHER POSTRETIREMENT BENEFITS for further information.
ENVIRONMENTAL AND ASSET RETIREMENT OBLIGATIONS
Refer to NOTE 20 - COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCIES and NOTE 13 - ASSET RETIREMENT OBLIGATIONS for further information on our environmental and asset retirement obligations.
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SHARE REPURCHASE PROGRAM
On February 10, 2022, our Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase outstanding common shares in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions, which may include purchases pursuant to Rule 10b5-1 plans or accelerated share repurchases, up to a maximum of $1 billion. As of December 31, 2022, there was $760 million remaining under the authorization. We are not obligated to make any purchases and the program may be suspended or discontinued at any time. The share repurchase program does not have a specific expiration date.
NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
ADJUSTED EBITDA
We evaluate performance on an operating segment basis, as well as a consolidated basis, based on Adjusted EBITDA, which is a non-GAAP measure. This measure is used by management, investors, lenders and other external users of our financial statements to assess our operating performance and to compare operating performance to other companies in the steel industry. In addition, management believes Adjusted EBITDA is a useful measure to assess the earnings power of the business without the impact of capital structure and can be used to assess our ability to service debt and fund future capital expenditures in the business.
The following table provides a reconciliation of our Net income (loss) to Adjusted EBITDA:
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||
| Net income (loss) | $ | 1,376 | $ | 3,033 | $ | (81) | ||||
| Less: | ||||||||||
| Interest expense, net | (276) | (337) | (238) | |||||||
| Income tax benefit (expense) | (423) | (773) | 111 | |||||||
| Depreciation, depletion and amortization | (1,034) | (897) | (308) | |||||||
| Total EBITDA | $ | 3,109 | $ | 5,040 | $ | 354 | ||||
| Less: | ||||||||||
| EBITDA from noncontrolling interests1 | $ | 74 | $ | 75 | $ | 56 | ||||
| Gain (loss) on extinguishment of debt | (75) | (88) | 130 | |||||||
| Acquisition-related expenses and adjustments | (1) | (197) | (148) | |||||||
| Asset impairment | (29) | — | — | |||||||
| Other, net | (29) | (27) | (37) | |||||||
| Total Adjusted EBITDA | $ | 3,169 | $ | 5,277 | $ | 353 | ||||
| 1 EBITDA of noncontrolling interests includes the following: | ||||||||||
| Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests | $ | 41 | $ | 45 | $ | 41 | ||||
| Depreciation, depletion and amortization | 33 | 30 | 15 | |||||||
| EBITDA of noncontrolling interests | $ | 74 | $ | 75 | $ | 56 |
The following table provides a summary of our Adjusted EBITDA by segment:
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In millions) | 2022 | 2021 | ||||
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||||||
| Steelmaking | $ | 3,089 | $ | 5,280 | ||
| Other Businesses | 69 | 9 | ||||
| Corporate and eliminations | 11 | (12) | ||||
| Total Adjusted EBITDA | $ | 3,169 | $ | 5,277 |
FREE CASH FLOW
Free cash flow is a non-GAAP measure defined as operating cash flows less purchase of property, plant and equipment. Management believes it is an important measure to assess the cash generation available to service debt, strategic initiatives or other financing activities.
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The following table provides a reconciliation of our operating cash flows to free cash flows:
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In millions) | 2022 | 2021 | ||||
| Operating cash flows | $ | 2,423 | $ | 2,785 | ||
| Purchase of property, plant and equipment | (943) | (705) | ||||
| Free cash flows | $ | 1,480 | $ | 2,080 |
INFORMATION ABOUT OUR GUARANTORS AND THE ISSUER OF OUR GUARANTEED SECURITIES
The accompanying summarized financial information has been prepared and presented pursuant to SEC Regulation S-X, Rule 3-10, “Financial Statements of Guarantors and Issuers of Guaranteed Securities Registered or Being Registered,” and Rule 13-01 "Financial Disclosures about Guarantors and Issuers of Guaranteed Securities and Affiliates Whose Securities Collateralized a Registrant's Securities." Certain of our subsidiaries (the "Guarantor subsidiaries") have fully and unconditionally, and jointly and severally, guaranteed the obligations under (a) the 5.875% 2027 Senior Notes, the 7.000% 2027 Senior Notes, the 4.625% 2029 Senior Notes and the 4.875% 2031 Senior Notes issued by Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. on a senior unsecured basis and (b) the 6.750% 2026 Senior Secured Notes on a senior secured basis. See NOTE 8 - DEBT AND CREDIT FACILITIES for further information.
The following presents the summarized financial information on a combined basis for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (parent company and issuer of the guaranteed obligations) and the Guarantor subsidiaries, collectively referred to as the obligated group. Transactions between the obligated group have been eliminated. Information for the non-Guarantor subsidiaries was excluded from the combined summarized financial information of the obligated group.
Each Guarantor subsidiary is consolidated by Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. as of December 31, 2022. Refer to Exhibit 22, incorporated herein by reference, for the detailed list of entities included within the obligated group as of December 31, 2022.
The guarantee of a Guarantor subsidiary with respect to Cliffs' 6.750% 2026 Senior Secured Notes, the 5.875% 2027 Senior Notes, the 7.000% 2027 Senior Notes, the 4.625% 2029 Senior Notes and the 4.875% 2031 Senior Notes will be automatically and unconditionally released and discharged, and such Guarantor subsidiary’s obligations under the guarantee and the related indentures (the “Indentures”) will be automatically and unconditionally released and discharged, upon the occurrence of any of the following, along with the delivery to the trustee of an officer’s certificate and an opinion of counsel, each stating that all conditions precedent provided for in the applicable Indenture relating to the release and discharge of such Guarantor subsidiary’s guarantee have been complied with:
(a) any sale, exchange, transfer or disposition of such Guarantor subsidiary (by merger, consolidation, or the sale of) or the capital stock of such Guarantor subsidiary after which the applicable Guarantor subsidiary is no longer a subsidiary of the Company or the sale of all or substantially all of such Guarantor subsidiary’s assets (other than by lease), whether or not such Guarantor subsidiary is the surviving entity in such transaction, to a person which is not the Company or a subsidiary of the Company; provided that (i) such sale, exchange, transfer or disposition is made in compliance with the applicable Indenture, including the covenants regarding consolidation, merger and sale of assets and, as applicable, dispositions of assets that constitute notes collateral, and (ii) all the obligations of such Guarantor subsidiary under all debt of the Company or its subsidiaries terminate upon consummation of such transaction;
(b) designation of any Guarantor subsidiary as an “excluded subsidiary” (as defined in the Indentures); or
(c) defeasance or satisfaction and discharge of the Indentures.
Each entity in the summarized combined financial information follows the same accounting policies as described in the consolidated financial statements. The accompanying summarized combined financial information does not reflect investments of the obligated group in non-Guarantor subsidiaries. The financial information of the obligated group is presented on a combined basis; intercompany balances and transactions within the obligated group have been eliminated. The obligated group's amounts due from, amounts due to, and transactions with, non-Guarantor subsidiaries and related parties have been presented in separate line items.
SUMMARIZED COMBINED FINANCIAL INFORMATION OF THE ISSUER AND GUARANTOR SUBSIDIARIES
The following table is summarized combined financial information from the Statements of Condensed Consolidated Financial Position of the obligated group:
| December 31, | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In millions) | 2022 | 2021 | ||||
| Current assets | $ | 7,063 | $ | 6,539 | ||
| Non-current assets | 9,935 | 12,693 | ||||
| Current liabilities | (3,866) | (3,222) | ||||
| Non-current liabilities | (6,630) | (9,081) |
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The following table is summarized combined financial information from the Statements of Condensed Consolidated Operations of the obligated group:
| Year Ended | ||
|---|---|---|
| (In millions) | December 31, 2022 | |
| Revenues | $ | 21,376 |
| Cost of goods sold | (19,008) | |
| Income from continuing operations | 1,107 | |
| Net income | 1,109 | |
| Net income attributable to Cliffs shareholders | 1,109 |
As of December 31, 2022 and 2021, the obligated group had the following balances with non-Guarantor subsidiaries and other related parties:
| December 31, | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In millions) | 2022 | 2021 | ||||
| Balances with non-Guarantor subsidiaries: | ||||||
| Accounts receivable, net | $ | 163 | $ | 199 | ||
| Accounts payable | (527) | (186) | ||||
| Balances with other related parties: | ||||||
| Accounts receivable, net | $ | 8 | $ | 3 | ||
| Accounts payable | (13) | (7) |
Additionally, for the year ended December 31, 2022, the obligated group had Revenues of $133 million and Cost of goods sold of $103 million, in each case with other related parties.
MARKET RISKS
We are subject to a variety of risks, including those caused by changes in commodity prices and interest rates. We have established policies and procedures to manage such risks; however, certain risks are beyond our control.
PRICING RISKS
In the ordinary course of business, we are exposed to market risk and price fluctuations related to the sale of our products, which are impacted primarily by market prices for HRC, and the purchase of energy and raw materials used in our operations, which are impacted by market prices for electricity, natural gas, ferrous and stainless steel scrap, chrome, metallurgical coal, coke, nickel and zinc. Our strategy to address market risk has generally been to obtain competitive prices for our products and services and allow operating results to reflect market price movements dictated by supply and demand; however, we make forward physical purchases and enter into hedge contracts to manage exposure to price risk related to the purchases of certain raw materials and energy used in the production process.
Our financial results can vary for our operations as a result of fluctuations in market prices. We attempt to mitigate these risks by aligning fixed and variable components in our customer pricing contracts, supplier purchasing agreements and derivative financial instruments.
Some customer contracts have fixed-pricing terms, which increases our exposure to fluctuations in raw material and energy costs. To reduce our exposure, we enter into annual, fixed-price agreements for certain raw materials. Some of our existing multi-year raw material supply agreements have required minimum purchase quantities. Under adverse economic conditions, those minimums may exceed our needs. Absent exceptions for force majeure and other circumstances affecting the legal enforceability of the agreements, these minimum purchase requirements may compel us to purchase quantities of raw materials that could significantly exceed our anticipated needs or pay damages to the supplier for shortfalls. In these circumstances, we would attempt to negotiate agreements for new purchase quantities. There is a risk, however, that we would not be successful in reducing purchase quantities, either through negotiation or litigation. If that occurred, we would likely be required to purchase more of a particular raw material in a particular year than we need, negatively affecting our results of operations and cash flows.
Certain of our customer contracts include variable-pricing mechanisms that adjust selling prices in response to changes in the costs of certain raw materials and energy, while other of our customer contracts exclude such mechanisms. We may enter into multi-year purchase agreements for certain raw materials with similar variable-price mechanisms, allowing us to achieve natural hedges between the customer contracts and supplier purchase agreements. Therefore, in some cases, price fluctuations for energy (particularly natural gas and electricity), raw materials (such as scrap, chrome, zinc and nickel) or other commodities may be, in part, passed on to customers rather than absorbed solely by us. There is a risk, however, that the variable-price mechanisms in the sales contracts may not necessarily change in tandem with the variable-price mechanisms in our purchase agreements, negatively affecting our results of operations and cash flows.
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Our strategy to address volatile natural gas rates and electricity rates includes improving efficiency in energy usage, identifying alternative providers and utilizing the lowest cost alternative fuels. If we are unable to align fixed and variable components between customer contracts and supplier purchase agreements, we use cash-settled commodity price swaps to hedge the market risk associated with the purchase of certain of our raw materials and energy requirements. Additionally, we routinely use these derivative instruments to hedge a portion of our natural gas and zinc requirements. During 2022, we initiated hedging programs for electricity and tin. Our hedging strategy is designed to protect us from excessive pricing volatility. However, since we do not typically hedge 100% of our exposure, abnormal price increases in any of these commodity markets might still negatively affect operating costs.
The following table summarizes the negative effect of a hypothetical change in the fair value of our derivative instruments outstanding as of December 31, 2022, due to a 10% and 25% change in the market price of each of the indicated commodities:
| (In millions) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commodity Derivative | 10% Change | 25% Change | |||||
| Natural gas | $ | 54 | $ | 136 | |||
| Electricity | 3 | 6 | |||||
| Tin | — | 1 |
Any resulting changes in fair value would be recorded as adjustments to AOCI, net of income taxes, or recognized in net earnings, as appropriate. These hypothetical losses would be partially offset by the benefit of lower prices paid for the related commodities.
VALUATION OF GOODWILL AND OTHER LONG-LIVED ASSETS
GOODWILL
We assign goodwill arising from acquired companies to the reporting units that are expected to benefit from the synergies of the acquisition. Goodwill is tested on a qualitative or quantitative basis for impairment at the reporting unit level on an annual basis (October 1) and between annual tests if an event occurs or circumstances change that would more likely than not reduce the fair value of a reporting unit below its carrying value. These events or circumstances could include a significant change in the business climate, legal factors, operating performance indicators, competition, or sale or disposition of a significant portion of a reporting unit. We have an unconditional option to bypass the qualitative test for any reporting unit in any period and proceed directly to performing the quantitative test. Should our qualitative test indicate that it is more likely than not that the fair value of a reporting unit is less than its carrying value, we perform a quantitative test to determine the amount of impairment, if any, to the carrying value of the reporting unit and its associated goodwill.
Application of the goodwill impairment test requires judgment, including the identification of reporting units, assignment of assets and liabilities to reporting units, assignment of goodwill to reporting units and if a quantitative assessment is deemed necessary in determination of the fair value of each reporting unit. The fair value of each reporting unit is estimated using the guideline public company method, the discounted cash flow methodology, or a combination of both, which considers forecasted cash flows discounted at an estimated weighted average cost of capital. Assessing the recoverability of our goodwill requires significant assumptions regarding the estimated future cash flows and other factors to determine the fair value of a reporting unit, including, among other things, estimates related to forecasts of future revenues, expected Adjusted EBITDA, expected capital expenditures and working capital requirements, which are based upon our long-range plan estimates. The assumptions used to calculate the fair value of a reporting unit may change from year to year based on operating results, market conditions and other factors. Changes in these assumptions could materially affect the determination of fair value for each reporting unit.
No impairment charges were identified in connection with our annual goodwill impairment test with respect to our identified reporting units. However, our Tooling and Stamping reporting unit fair value was not substantially in excess of its carrying values as of December 31, 2022. A slower than anticipated resolution of the supply chain issues related to the global semiconductor shortages that have hampered the automotive industry, higher than expected capital requirements, and/or an increase in the discount rate could result in future impairment indicators. We determined that our other identified reporting units were not at risk of failing the goodwill impairment test as of December 31, 2022.
OTHER LONG-LIVED ASSETS
Long-lived assets are reviewed for impairment upon the occurrence of events or changes in circumstances that would indicate that the carrying value of the assets may not be recoverable. Such indicators may include: a significant decline in expected future cash flows; a sustained, significant decline in market pricing; a significant adverse change in legal or environmental factors or in the business climate; changes in estimates of our recoverable reserves; and unanticipated competition. Any adverse change in these factors could have a significant impact on the recoverability of our long-lived assets and could have a material impact on our consolidated statements of operations and statements of financial position.
A comparison of each asset group's carrying value to the estimated undiscounted net future cash flows expected to result from the use of the assets, including cost of disposition, is used to determine if an asset is recoverable. Projected future cash flows reflect management's best estimate of economic and market conditions over the projected period, including growth rates in revenues and costs, and estimates of future expected changes in operating margins and capital expenditures. If the carrying value of the asset group is higher than its undiscounted net future cash flows, the asset group is measured at fair value and the difference is recorded as a reduction to the long-lived assets. We estimate fair value using a market approach, an income approach or a cost approach. For the year ended December 31, 2022, we concluded that there were no additional triggering events resulting in the need for an
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impairment assessment except for the announcement of the permanent closure of Mountain State Carbon, which resulted in a $29 million asset impairment charge.
INTEREST RATE RISK
Interest payable on our senior notes is at fixed rates. Interest payable under our ABL Facility is at a variable rate based upon the applicable base rate plus the applicable base rate margin depending on the excess availability. As of December 31, 2022, we had $1,864 million outstanding under our ABL Facility. An increase in prevailing interest rates would increase interest expense and interest paid for any outstanding borrowings under our ABL Facility. For example, a 100 basis point change to interest rates under our ABL Facility at the December 31, 2022 borrowing level would result in a change of $19 million to interest expense on an annual basis. For a discussion of the attendant risk, see Part I - Item 1A, Risk Factors - III. Financial Risks - Our existing and future indebtedness may limit cash flow available to invest in the ongoing needs of our businesses, which could prevent us from fulfilling our obligations under our senior notes, ABL Facility and other debt, and we may be forced to take other actions to satisfy our obligations under our debt, which may not be successful.
SUPPLY CONCENTRATION RISKS
Many of our operations and mines rely on one source for each of electric power and natural gas. A significant interruption or change in service or rates from our energy suppliers could materially impact our production costs, margins and profitability.
RECENTLY ISSUED ACCOUNTING PRONOUNCEMENTS
Refer to NOTE 1 - BASIS OF PRESENTATION AND SIGNIFICANT ACCOUNTING POLICIES of the consolidated financial statements for a description of recent accounting pronouncements, including the respective dates of adoption and effects on results of operations and financial condition.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
Management's discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations is based on our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. Preparation of financial statements requires management to make assumptions, estimates and judgments that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues, costs and expenses, and the related disclosures of contingencies. Management bases its estimates on various assumptions and historical experience, which are believed to be reasonable; however, due to the inherent nature of estimates, actual results may differ significantly due to changed conditions or assumptions. On a regular basis, management reviews the accounting policies, assumptions, estimates and judgments to ensure that our financial statements are fairly presented in accordance with GAAP. However, because future events and their effects cannot be determined with certainty, actual results could differ from our assumptions and estimates, and such differences could be material. Management believes that the following critical accounting estimates and judgments have a significant impact on our financial statements.
BUSINESS COMBINATIONS
Assets acquired and liabilities assumed in a business combination are recognized and measured based on their estimated fair values at the acquisition date, while the acquisition-related costs are expensed as incurred. Any excess of the purchase consideration when compared to the fair value of the net tangible and intangible assets acquired is recorded as goodwill. We engaged independent valuation specialists to assist with the determination of the fair value of assets acquired, liabilities assumed, noncontrolling interest, and goodwill, for the acquisitions. If the initial accounting for the business combination is incomplete by the end of the reporting period in which the acquisition occurs, an estimate will be recorded. Subsequent to the acquisition date, and not later than one year from the acquisition date, we will record any material adjustments to the initial estimate based on new information obtained that would have existed as of the date of the acquisition. Any adjustment that arises from information obtained that did not exist as of the date of the acquisition will be recorded in the period the adjustment arises.
VALUATION OF GOODWILL AND OTHER LONG-LIVED ASSETS
The valuation of goodwill and other long-lived assets includes various assumptions and are considered critical accounting estimates. Refer to "–Market Risks" above for additional information.
MINERAL RESERVES
We regularly evaluate, and engage QPs to review and validate, our mineral reserves and update them as required in accordance with Subpart 1300 of Regulation S-K. We perform an in-depth evaluation of our mineral reserve estimates by mine on a periodic basis, in addition to routine annual assessments. The determination of mineral reserves requires us and third-party QPs to make significant estimates and assumptions related to key inputs, including, but not limited to, (1) the determination of the size and scope of the iron ore body through technical modeling, (2) the estimates of future iron ore prices, production costs and capital expenditures, and (3) management’s mine plan for the proven and probable mineral reserves. The significant estimates and assumptions could be affected by future industry conditions, geological conditions and ongoing mine planning. Additional capital and development expenditures may be required to maintain effective production capacity. Generally, as mining operations progress, haul distances increase. Alternatively, changes in economic conditions or the expected quality of mineral resources and reserves could decrease effective production capacity. Technological progress could alleviate such factors or increase capacity of mineral reserves.
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We use our mineral reserve estimates, combined with our estimated annual production levels, to determine the mine closure dates utilized in recording the fair value liability for asset retirement obligations for our active operating mines. Refer to NOTE 13 - ASSET RETIREMENT OBLIGATIONS, for further information. Since the liability represents the present value of the expected future obligation, a significant change in mineral reserves or mine lives could have a substantial effect on the recorded obligation. We also utilize mineral reserves for evaluating potential impairments of goodwill and mine asset groups as they are indicative of future cash flows and in determining maximum useful lives utilized to calculate depreciation, depletion and amortization of long-lived mine assets. The consolidated asset retirement obligation balance was $520 million as of December 31, 2022, of which $196 million related to active iron ore mine operations. The total goodwill balance associated with our Steelmaking reportable segment was $956 million as of December 31, 2022. The total asset balance associated with our Steelmaking reportable segment was $18,070 million as of December 31, 2022, of which $1,559 million related to long-lived assets associated with our combined iron ore mine asset groups. Depreciation, depletion and amortization expense for our combined iron ore mine asset groups was $161 million for the year ended December 31, 2022. Increases or decreases in mineral reserves or mine lives could significantly affect these items.
ASSET RETIREMENT OBLIGATIONS
The accrued closure obligation is predominantly related to our indefinitely idled and closed iron ore mining operations and provides for contractual and legal obligations associated with the eventual closure of those operations. We perform an in-depth evaluation of the liability every three years in addition to our routine annual assessments. In 2020, we employed third-party specialists to assist in the evaluation. Our obligations are determined based on detailed estimates adjusted for factors that a market participant would consider (e.g., inflation, overhead and profit), which are escalated at an assumed rate of inflation to the estimated closure dates and then discounted using the current credit-adjusted risk-free interest rate. The estimate also incorporates incremental increases in the closure cost estimates and changes in estimates of mine lives for our active mine sites. The closure date for each of our active mine sites is determined based on the exhaustion date of the remaining mineral reserves, which is dependent on our estimate of mineral reserves. The estimated obligations for our active mine sites are particularly sensitive to the impact of changes in mine lives given the difference between the inflation and discount rates. The closure dates for a majority of our steelmaking facilities are indefinite, and as such, the asset retirement obligations are recorded at present values using estimated ranges of the economic lives of the underlying assets. Changes in the base estimates of legal and contractual closure costs due to changes in legal or contractual requirements, available technology, inflation, overhead or profit rates also could have a significant impact on the recorded obligations. Refer to NOTE 13 - ASSET RETIREMENT OBLIGATIONS, for further information.
ENVIRONMENTAL REMEDIATION COSTS
We have a formal policy for environmental protection and remediation. Our obligations for known environmental matters at active and closed operations have been recognized based on estimates of the cost of investigation and remediation at each facility. If the obligation can only be estimated as a range of possible amounts, with no specific amount being more likely, the minimum of the range is accrued. Management reviews its environmental remediation sites quarterly to determine if additional cost adjustments or disclosures are required. The characteristics of environmental remediation obligations, where information concerning the nature and extent of clean-up activities is not immediately available and which are subject to changes in regulatory requirements, result in a significant risk of increase to the obligations as they mature. Expected future expenditures are discounted to present value unless the amount and timing of the cash disbursements cannot be reasonably estimated.
INCOME TAXES
Our income tax expense, deferred tax assets and liabilities and reserves for unrecognized tax benefits reflect management's best assessment of estimated future taxes to be paid. We are subject to income taxes in the U.S. and various foreign jurisdictions. Significant judgments and estimates are required in determining the consolidated income tax expense.
Deferred income taxes arise from temporary differences between tax and financial statement recognition of revenue and expense. In evaluating our ability to recover our deferred tax assets, we consider all available positive and negative evidence, including scheduled reversals of deferred tax liabilities, projected future taxable income, tax planning strategies and recent financial operations. In projecting future taxable income, we begin with historical results adjusted for the results of discontinued operations and changes in accounting policies and incorporate assumptions including the amount of future state, federal and foreign pretax operating income, the reversal of temporary differences, and the implementation of feasible and prudent tax planning strategies. These assumptions require significant judgment about the forecasts of future taxable income and are consistent with the plans and estimates we are using to manage the underlying businesses.
At December 31, 2022 and 2021, we had a valuation allowance of $390 million and $409 million, respectively, against our deferred tax assets. At December 31, 2022 and 2021, our U.S. deferred tax assets were $48 million and $70 million, respectively, and our foreign deferred tax assets were $342 million and $339 million, respectively.
Our losses in Luxembourg in recent periods represent sufficient negative evidence to require a full valuation allowance against the deferred tax assets in that jurisdiction. We intend to maintain a valuation allowance against the deferred tax assets related to these operating losses, unless and until sufficient positive evidence exists to support the realization of such assets.
Changes in tax laws and rates also could affect recorded deferred tax assets and liabilities in the future. The calculation of our tax liabilities involves dealing with uncertainties in the application of complex tax laws and regulations in various jurisdictions across our global operations. The ultimate impact of U.S. income tax reform legislation may differ from our current estimates due to changes in the interpretations and assumptions made as well as additional regulatory guidance that may be issued.
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Accounting for uncertainty in income taxes recognized in the financial statements requires that a tax benefit from an uncertain tax position be recognized when it is more likely than not that the position will be sustained upon examination, including resolutions of any related appeals or litigation processes, based on technical merits.
We recognize tax liabilities in accordance with ASC 740, Income Taxes, and we adjust these liabilities when our judgment changes because of evaluation of new information not previously available. Due to the complexity of some of these uncertainties, the ultimate resolution may result in payment that is materially different from our current estimate of the tax liabilities. These differences will be reflected as increases or decreases to income tax expense in the period in which they are determined. Refer to NOTE 11 - INCOME TAXES, for further information.
EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT BENEFIT OBLIGATIONS
We sponsor various defined benefit pension plans and OPEB plans for certain current employees and retirees. For accounting purposes, we use various actuarial assumptions and methodologies to measure the plan obligations, assets and related net periodic benefit expense at the end of each year. These assumptions include discount rates, expected return on plan assets, mortality rates, rates of compensation increase, healthcare trend rates and certain demographic assumptions. Assumptions and calculations are reviewed by management and reflect our best estimates and judgment. Future changes in assumptions or differences between actual and expected can significantly impact the future funded status of our plans as well as their related net periodic benefit expense.
We believe discount rates and expected return on assets are the most critical assumptions. The discount rates used to measure plan liabilities as of the December 31 measurement date are determined individually for each plan. The discount rates are determined by matching the projected cash flows used to determine the plan liabilities to a projected yield curve of high-quality corporate bonds available at the measurement date. Discount rates for expense are calculated using the granular approach for each plan.
The expected return on plan assets are calculated on a plan-by-plan basis and take into account each plan's strategic asset allocation. The calculation of rates by asset class are based primarily on our future expected returns and take into consideration the duration of the cash flows, active management and fees. The difference between our expected return on plan assets assumptions and the actual returns are recorded in AOCI and ultimately affects future earnings in subsequent years. Although our actual returns will likely differ from our estimate on any given year, the returns over the long term are expected to match our assumptions. In 2023, our weighted average expected return on assets for pension and OPEB plans will increase from 6.87% to 7.66% and from 4.86% to 5.87%, respectively. The increase is primarily related to a shift in investment strategy and asset mix for $2.9 billion of our pension and OPEB assets, to further align to the Company-wide investment strategy.
Cumulative actuarial gains and losses will be amortized to expense using the corridor method, where gains and losses are recognized if they exceed 10% of the greater of the fair value of plan assets or the plans' benefit obligations. The amortization period will vary by plan.
The following are sensitivities of potential further changes in these key assumptions on the estimated 2023 pension and OPEB expense and the pension and OPEB obligations as of December 31, 2022:
| Increase (Decrease) in Expense | Increase in Benefit Obligation | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In millions) | Pension | OPEB | Pension | OPEB | ||||||||||
| Decrease discount rate 0.25% | $ | (2) | $ | 2 | $ | 92 | $ | 28 | ||||||
| Decrease return on assets 1.00% | 41 | 7 | N/A | N/A |
Refer to NOTE 9 - PENSIONS AND OTHER POSTRETIREMENT BENEFITS for further information.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This report contains statements that constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the federal securities laws. As a general matter, forward-looking statements relate to anticipated trends and expectations rather than historical matters. Forward-looking statements are subject to uncertainties and factors relating to our operations and business environment that are difficult to predict and may be beyond our control. Such uncertainties and factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These statements speak only as of the date of this report, and we undertake no ongoing obligation, other than that imposed by law, to update these statements. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Uncertainties and risk factors that could affect our future performance and cause results to differ from the forward-looking statements in this report include, but are not limited to:
•continued volatility of steel, iron ore and scrap metal market prices, which directly and indirectly impact the prices of the products that we sell to our customers;
•uncertainties associated with the highly competitive and cyclical steel industry and our reliance on the demand for steel from the automotive industry, which has been experiencing supply chain disruptions, such as the semiconductor shortage, and higher consumer interest rates, which could result in lower steel volumes being demanded;
•potential weaknesses and uncertainties in global economic conditions, excess global steelmaking capacity, oversupply of iron ore, prevalence of steel imports and reduced market demand, including as a result of inflationary pressures, the COVID-19 pandemic, conflicts or otherwise;
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•severe financial hardship, bankruptcy, temporary or permanent shutdowns or operational challenges of one or more of our major customers, including customers in the automotive market, key suppliers or contractors, which, among other adverse effects, could disrupt our operations or lead to reduced demand for our products, increased difficulty collecting receivables, and customers and/or suppliers asserting force majeure or other reasons for not performing their contractual obligations to us;
•disruptions to our operations relating to an infectious disease outbreak or the COVID-19 pandemic, including workforce challenges and the risk that novel variants will prove resistant to existing vaccines or that new or continuing pandemic lockdowns in China will impact our ability to source certain critical supplies in a timely and predictable manner;
•risks related to U.S. government actions with respect to Section 232, the USMCA and/or other trade agreements, tariffs, treaties or policies, as well as the uncertainty of obtaining and maintaining effective antidumping and countervailing duty orders to counteract the harmful effects of unfairly traded imports;
•impacts of existing and increasing governmental regulation, including potential environmental regulations relating to climate change and carbon emissions, and related costs and liabilities, including failure to receive or maintain required operating and environmental permits, approvals, modifications or other authorizations of, or from, any governmental or regulatory authority and costs related to implementing improvements to ensure compliance with regulatory changes, including potential financial assurance requirements, and reclamation and remediation obligations;
•potential impacts to the environment or exposure to hazardous substances resulting from our operations;
•our ability to maintain adequate liquidity, our level of indebtedness and the availability of capital could limit our financial flexibility and cash flow necessary to fund working capital, planned capital expenditures, acquisitions, and other general corporate purposes or ongoing needs of our business;
•our ability to reduce our indebtedness or return capital to shareholders within the currently expected timeframes or at all;
•adverse changes in credit ratings, interest rates, foreign currency rates and tax laws, including adverse impacts as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act;
•the outcome of, and costs incurred in connection with, lawsuits, claims, arbitrations or governmental proceedings relating to commercial and business disputes, antitrust claims, environmental matters, government investigations, occupational or personal injury claims, property damage, labor and employment matters, or suits involving legacy operations and other matters;
•uncertain availability or cost, due to inflation or otherwise, of critical manufacturing equipment and spare parts;
•supply chain disruptions or changes in the cost, quality or availability of energy sources, including electricity, natural gas and diesel fuel, or critical raw materials and supplies, including iron ore, industrial gases, graphite electrodes, scrap metal, chrome, zinc, coke and metallurgical coal;
•problems or disruptions associated with transporting products to our customers, moving manufacturing inputs or products internally among our facilities, or suppliers transporting raw materials to us;
•the risk that the cost or time to implement a strategic or sustaining capital project may prove to be greater than originally anticipated;
•uncertainties associated with natural or human-caused disasters, adverse weather conditions, unanticipated geological conditions, critical equipment failures, infectious disease outbreaks, tailings dam failures and other unexpected events;
•cybersecurity incidents relating to, disruptions in, or failures of, information technology systems that are managed by us or third parties that host or have access to our data and systems, including the loss, theft or corruption of sensitive or essential business or personal information and the inability to access or control systems;
•liabilities and costs arising in connection with any business decisions to temporarily or indefinitely idle or permanently close an operating facility or mine, which could adversely impact the carrying value of associated assets and give rise to impairment charges or closure and reclamation obligations, as well as uncertainties associated with restarting any previously idled operating facility or mine;
•our level of self-insurance and our ability to obtain sufficient third-party insurance to adequately cover potential adverse events and business risks;
•uncertainties associated with our ability to meet customers’ and suppliers’ decarbonization goals and reduce our GHG emissions in alignment with our own announced targets;
•challenges to maintaining our social license to operate with our stakeholders, including the impacts of our operations on local communities, reputational impacts of operating in a carbon-intensive industry that produces GHG emissions, and our ability to foster a consistent operational and safety track record;
•our actual economic mineral reserves or reductions in current mineral reserve estimates, and any title defect or loss of any lease, license, easement or other possessory interest for any mining property;
•our ability to maintain satisfactory labor relations with unions and employees;
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•unanticipated or higher costs associated with pension and OPEB obligations resulting from changes in the value of plan assets or contribution increases required for unfunded obligations;
•uncertain availability or cost of skilled workers to fill critical operational positions and potential labor shortages caused by experienced employee attrition or otherwise, as well as our ability to attract, hire, develop and retain key personnel;
•the amount and timing of any repurchases of our common shares; and
•potential significant deficiencies or material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting.
For additional factors affecting our businesses, refer to Part I – ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS. You are urged to carefully consider these risk factors.
Forward-looking and other statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K regarding our GHG reduction plans and goals are not an indication that these statements are necessarily material to investors or required to be disclosed in our filings with the SEC. In addition, historical, current and forward-looking GHG-related statements may be based on standards for measuring progress that are still developing, internal controls and processes that continue to evolve and assumptions that are subject to change in the future.