WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (HCC)

ITEM 2. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

The following discussion and analysis provides a narrative of our results of operations and financial condition for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 and June 30, 2025. You should read the following discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations together with our financial statements and related notes appearing in this Form 10-Q and the audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025 included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025 (the "2025 Annual Report"). Some of the information contained in this discussion and analysis or set forth elsewhere in this Form 10-Q, including information with respect to our plans and strategy for our business and related financing, includes forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. As a result of many factors, our actual results could differ materially from the results described in, or implied by, the forward-looking statements contained in the following discussion and analysis. Please see “Forward-Looking Statements.”

Overview

We are a U.S.-based, environmentally and socially minded supplier to the global steel industry headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama. We are dedicated entirely to mining non-thermal steelmaking coal used as a critical component of steel production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America and Asia. We are a large-scale, low-cost producer and exporter of premium quality steelmaking coal, also known as hard coking coal (“HCC”), operating highly-efficient longwall operations in our underground mines based in Alabama, Mine No. 4, Mine No. 7 and Blue Creek. We commenced longwall operations at our transformational Blue Creek mine based in Alabama eight months ahead of schedule in October 2025.

As of December 31, 2025, based on a reserve report prepared by Marshall Miller & Associates, Inc. ("Marshall Miller"), our three operating underground mines had approximately 179.3 million metric tons of recoverable reserves and our Blue Creek mine contained 54.0 million metric tons of recoverable reserves. As a result of our high-quality coal, our Mine No. 7 steelmaking coal realized price has historically been in line with, or at a slight discount to, the Platts Premium Low Volatility ("LV") Free-On-Board Australian Index (the "S&P Platts Index"). Our Mine No. 4 and Blue Creek steelmaking coals are High Volatility A ("HVA") quality coal that typically trades at a discount to the price of coal from Mine No. 7. We primarily target the East Coast High Vol A index for sales of our Mine No. 4 and Blue Creek coals that are destined for the Atlantic Basin, whereas we target a variety of indices, including Platts Premium Low Vol and Platts Low Vol HCC for sales destined to the Pacific Basins. Our Blue Creek coal is also primarily sold into Asia and is sold on a cost and freight ("CFR") basis. Our steelmaking coal, mined from the Southern Appalachian portion of the Blue Creek coal seam, is characterized by low-to-high volatile matter, low sulfur, high fluidity, and high strength. These qualities make our coal ideally suited as a coking coal for the manufacture of steel.

We sell substantially all of our steelmaking coal production to global steel producers. Steelmaking coal, which is converted to coke, is a critical input in the steel production process. Steelmaking coal is both consumed domestically in the countries where it is produced and exported by several of the largest producing countries, such as China, Australia, the United States, Canada and Russia. Therefore, demand for our coal will be highly correlated to conditions in the global steelmaking industry. The steelmaking industry’s demand for steelmaking coal is affected by a number of factors, including the cyclical nature of that industry’s business, technological developments in the steelmaking process and the availability of substitutes for steel such as aluminum, composites and plastics. A significant reduction in the demand for steel products would reduce the demand for steelmaking coal, which would have a material adverse effect upon our business. Similarly, if alternative ingredients are used in substitution for steelmaking coal in the integrated steel mill process, the demand for steelmaking coal could materially decrease, which could also materially adversely affect demand for our steelmaking coal.

Completion of Blue Creek Development

We commenced longwall operations at the Blue Creek mine in October 2025, eight months ahead of schedule and on budget. The ahead-of-schedule start of Blue Creek's longwall is already positively impacting our production profile, cost structure, and earnings potential.

On February 21, 2025, we provided an update on the Blue Creek project. Due to the implementation of innovative technologies and best practices, we increased nameplate production capacity of the Blue Creek mine by 25%, from the original production plan of 4.4 million metric tons to 5.4 million metric tons. With better-than-expected recovery and the anticipated addition of a fourth continuous miner unit, our overall nameplate production capacity increased up to approximately 6.4 million metric tons. The additional capacity increased our overall nameplate production capacity by 88%, from 7.3 million metric tons per year to 13.7 million metric tons per year. While our nameplate production capacity has significantly increased, actual annual sales and production volumes will be dependent upon steelmaking coal market conditions. Even in these early stages of production and sales, Blue Creek has already contributed to

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lower cash costs, further improving our position in the first-quartile of the global cost curve. In addition, Blue Creek's low-cost structure has reduced our all-in cash cost breakeven point and enhanced profitability and cash flow generation.

In the first quarter of 2026, we completed the Blue Creek construction project. We invested approximately $71.3 million in the current year, brining total project spending to $1,028.1 million. Final project costs were fully in line with our capital guidance, and no material additional project capital expenditures are expected. With construction complete, Blue Creek is positioned to continue driving higher production, lower costs, and improved cash flow generation as the operation advances through its ramp-up and optimization phase.

Finalization of Federal Coal Lease Acquisition

On November 25, 2025, Warrior Met Coal BC, LLC (“Warrior BC”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, entered into Federal Coal Lease ALES-056519 at Mine No. 1 (the “Mine No. 1 Lease”) and Warrior Met Coal Mining, LLC (“Warrior Mining”, and together with Warrior BC, the “Companies”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, entered into Federal Coal Lease ALES-055797 at Mine No. 4 (the “Mine No. 4 Lease”, and, together with the Mine No. 1 Lease, the “Leases”), each with the United States of America through the Bureau of Land Management (the “BLM”) of the United States Department of the Interior.

The Mine No. 1 Lease covers approximately 8,346 acres and the Mine No. 4 Lease covers approximately 5,704 acres. The BLM estimates the Mine No. 1 Lease tract contains approximately 32.9 million metric tons of recoverable coal reserves, and the Mine No. 4 Lease tract contains approximately 15.3 million metric tons of recoverable coal reserves. Subject to the terms and conditions thereof, the Leases provide the Companies with the exclusive right to drill for, mine, extract, remove or otherwise process and dispose of the coal deposits in, upon, or under the lands described therein. Each Lease has a minimum term of 20 years and for so long thereafter as coal is produced in commercial quantities from the leased lands, subject to readjustment of lease terms at the end of the twentieth lease year and each 10-year period thereafter. Pursuant to each lease, each Company is required to pay customary production royalties of 7% of the value of the coal produced and per acre annual rental payments to the BLM.

Warrior BC bid approximately $32 million for the Mine No. 1 Lease and has submitted a payment for approximately $6.4 million, which is the first of five equal payments. Warrior Mining bid approximately $15 million for the Mine No. 4 Lease and has submitted a payment for approximately $3.0 million, which is the first of five equal payments. Successive installments are due each year on the anniversary of the Leases for the next four years. These future installments were recorded at a discount using our credit-adjusted risk-free rate and are presented in the Consolidated Balance Sheets as short and long-term federal coal lease obligations. As of June 30, 2026, the short-term and long-term obligations were $9.1 million and $24.4 million, respectively. As of December 31, 2025, the short-term and long-term obligations were $8.8 million and $23.7 million, respectively.

On January 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of the Interior issued mining plan approval documents for each Lease, thereby authorizing coal development and mining operations on parts of each Lease within the area of mining plan approval.

Recent Developments

During the second quarter of 2026, global steelmaking coal market conditions reflected tightening coal supply in China and uneven demand across major seaborne markets. Premium low-volatility ("Premium LV") metallurgical ("met") coal prices remained supported by production disruptions and safety inspections in China's Shanxi province, which reduced Chinese domestic coking coal availability and increased demand for seaborne imports. As a result, Chinese buyers became a more significant influence on seaborne price formation, offsetting weaker demand in other markets. Premium LV FOB prices averaged $238.27 per metric ton during the second quarter of 2026, compared to $234.67 per metric ton in the first quarter of 2026 and $184.22 per metric ton in the second quarter of 2025.

Steelmaking coal demand in China strengthened during the second quarter of 2026 as supply disruptions reduced domestic production and inventories, increasing reliance on imported coal. According to Wood Mackenzie, cumulative production losses in Shanzi province could reach 15 to 25 million metric tons through August 2026, while mine inventories declined to approximately one million metric tons by the end of June, an eight-year low. In contrast, demand in India softened due to elevated inventories, weaker steel demand, and seasonal monsoon impacts, while demand in Europe and other Atlantic Basin markets remained generally stable despite continued sensitivity to steel margins and broader economic conditions.

The United States government continued to pursue a range of trade and tariff measures affecting international commerce, with certain countries implementing responsive actions. Ongoing trade and tariff uncertainty continued to contribute to volatility in global steel and steelmaking coal markets. The implementation of additional tariffs or other trade measures by the United States, or retaliatory actions by other countries, could adversely affect economic activity, operating costs, demand for steelmaking coal, supply chains, and pricing conditions. At this time, the ultimate impact of tariffs and related trade actions on the Company’s financial condition, results of operations, or cash flows cannot be reasonably estimated. The Company continues to monitor trade developments and assess potential

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impacts on its business.

On July 4, 2025, the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBBA") was enacted into law and includes significant provisions, such as the permanent extension of certain expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The legislation has multiple effective dates, with certain provisions effective in 2025 and others implemented through 2027. The changes

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ITEM 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

The following discussion and analysis provides a narrative of our results of operations and financial condition for the years ended December 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024. You should read the following discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations together with our audited consolidated financial statements and related notes appearing elsewhere in this Annual Report. Some of the information contained in this discussion and analysis or set forth elsewhere in this Annual Report, including information with respect to our plans and strategy for our business and related financing, includes forward‑looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. As a result of many factors, including those factors set forth in “Part I, Item 1A. Risk Factors,” our actual results could differ materially from the results described in, or implied by, the forward‑looking statements contained in the following discussion and analysis. Please see “Forward-Looking Statements.”

For a discussion and analysis of our results of operations and financial condition for the year ended December 31, 2023, please refer to Part II, Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024.

Overview

We are a U.S.-based, environmentally and socially minded supplier to the global steel industry. We are dedicated entirely to mining non-thermal steelmaking coal used as a critical component of steel production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America and Asia. We are a large-scale, low-cost producer and exporter of premium quality steelmaking coal, also known as hard coking coal (“HCC”), operating highly efficient longwall operations in our underground mines based in Alabama. In October 2025, we commenced operations at our transformational Blue Creek mine eight months ahead of schedule.

As of December 31, 2025, our three operating underground mines had approximately 179.3 million metric tons of recoverable reserves and our Blue Creek mine contained 54.0 million metric tons of recoverable reserves. As a result of our high-quality coal, our Mine No. 7 steelmaking coal realized price has historically been in line with, or at a slight discount to, the Platts Premium Low Volatility ("LV") Free-On-Board Australian Index (the "S&P Platts Index"). Our Mine No. 4 and Blue Creek steelmaking coals are a High Volatility A ("HVA") quality coal that typically trades at a discount to the price of coal from Mine No. 7. We primarily target the East Coast High Vol A index for sales of our Mine No. 4 and Blue Creek coals that are destined for the Atlantic Basin. Whereas we target a variety of indices, including Platts Premium Low Vol and Platts Low Vol HCC for sales destined to the Pacific Basins. Our Blue Creek coal is also primarily sold into Asia and is sold on a cost and freight ("CFR") basis. Our steelmaking coal, mined from the Southern Appalachian portion of the Blue Creek coal seam, is characterized by low-to-high volatile matter, low sulfur, high fluidity, and high strength. These qualities make our coal ideally suited as a coking coal for the manufacture of steel.

We sell substantially all of our steelmaking coal production to global steel producers. Steelmaking coal, which is converted to coke, is a critical input in the steel production process. Steelmaking coal is both consumed domestically in the countries where it is produced and exported by several of the largest producing countries, such as China, Australia, the United States, Canada and Russia. Therefore, demand for our coal will be highly correlated to conditions in the global steelmaking industry. The steelmaking industry’s demand for steelmaking coal is affected by a number of factors, including the cyclical nature of that industry’s business, technological developments in the steelmaking process and the availability of substitutes for steel such as aluminum, composites and plastics. A significant reduction in the demand for steel products would reduce the demand for steelmaking coal, which would have a material adverse effect upon our business. Similarly, if alternative ingredients are used in substitution for steelmaking coal in the integrated steel mill process, the demand for steelmaking coal could materially decrease, which could also materially adversely affect demand for our steelmaking coal.

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Commencement of Blue Creek Longwall

We commenced longwall operations at the Blue Creek mine in October 2025, eight months ahead of schedule and on budget. The ahead-of-schedule start of Blue Creek's longwall is already having an impact on our production profile, cost structure, and earnings potential heading into 2026. Due to the accelerated startup of the longwall, we produced approximately 1.8 million metric tons in 2025 and expect to produce at a minimum approximately 4.1 to 4.4 million metric tons in 2026.

On February 21, 2025, we provided an update on the Blue Creek project. Due to the implementation of innovative technologies and best practices, we increased nameplate production capacity of the Blue Creek mine by 25%, from the original production plan of 4.4 million metric tons to 5.4 million metric tons. With better-than-expected recovery and the anticipated addition of a fourth continuous miner unit, our overall nameplate production capacity increases up to approximately 6.4 million metric tons. The additional capacity increases our overall nameplate production capacity by 88%, from 7.3 million metrics tons per year to 13.7 million metrics tons per year. While our nameplate production capacity has significantly increased, actual annual sales and production volumes will be dependent upon steelmaking coal market conditions. Even in these early stages of production and sales, Blue Creek has already contributed to lower cash costs, further improving our position in the first-quartile of the global cost curve. In addition, Blue Creek's low-cost structure has reduced our all-in cash cost breakeven point and enhanced our profitability and cash flow generation.

We have invested approximately $240.3 million in 2025 and $956.8 million in the Blue Creek, project-to-date. While the longwall operations have recently commenced, there remains a significant amount of surface infrastructure to be completed to finish the overall project. Warrior remains on budget and expects total Blue Creek project capital expenditures of $995 million to $1.075 billion. The remaining amounts are expected to be primarily spent by the end of the first quarter of 2026.

Finalization of Federal Coal Lease Acquisition

On November 25, 2025, Warrior Met Coal BC, LLC (“Warrior BC”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, entered into Federal Coal Lease ALES-056519 at Mine No. 1 (the “Mine No. 1 Lease”) and Warrior Met Coal Mining, LLC (“Warrior Mining”, and together with Warrior BC, the “Companies”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, entered into Federal Coal Lease ALES-055797 at Mine No. 4 (the “Mine No. 4 Lease”, and, together with the Mine No. 1 Lease, the “Leases”), each with the United States of America through the Bureau of Land Management (the “BLM”) of the United States Department of the Interior.

The Mine No. 1 Lease covers approximately 8,346 acres and the Mine No. 4 Lease covers approximately 5,704 acres. The BLM estimates the Mine No. 1 Lease tract contains approximately 32.9 million metric tons of recoverable coal reserves, and the Mine No. 4 Lease tract contains approximately 15.3 million metric tons of recoverable coal reserves. Subject to the terms and conditions thereof, the Leases provide the Companies with the exclusive right to drill for, mine, extract, remove or otherwise process and dispose of the coal deposits in, upon, or under the lands described therein. Each Lease has a minimum term of 20 years and for so long thereafter as coal is produced in commercial quantities from the leased lands, subject to readjustment of lease terms at the end of the twentieth lease year and each 10-year period thereafter. Pursuant to each lease, each Company is required to pay customary production royalties of 7% of the value of the coal produced and per acre annual rental payments to the BLM.

Warrior BC bid approximately $32 million for the Mine No. 1 Lease and has submitted a payment for approximately $6.4 million, which is the first of five equal payments. Warrior Mining bid approximately $15 million for the Mine No. 4 Lease and has submitted a payment for approximately $3.0 million, which is the first of five equal payments. Successive installments are due each year on the anniversary of the Leases for the next four years. These future installments were recorded at a discount using our credit-adjusted risk-free rate and are presented in the Consolidated Balance Sheets as short and long-term federal coal lease obligations. As of December 31, 2025, the present value of the short-term and long-term obligations were $8.8 million and $23.7 million, respectively.

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On January 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of the Interior issued mining plan approval documents for each Lease, thereby authorizing coal development and mining operations on parts of each Lease within the area of mining plan approval.

Recent Developments

Global steelmaking coal markets remained challenged throughout 2025, driven primarily by depressed global steel demand, record‑high Chinese steel exports, and an abundant global supply of steelmaking coal. During the fourth quarter of 2025, pricing for high‑quality steelmaking coal improved slightly, reversing the consistent weakening experienced during the first half of the year. As of February 10, 2026, the Platts Index price for premium LV coal was $251.50 per metric ton, while the Platts Low Vol HCC was $208.60 per metric ton. Seasonal restocking activity and resilient steel production continued to support demand, with India emerging as a significant near‑term driver of import requirements.

Weather‑related supply constraints—most notably the arrival of Cyclone Koji in Australia in January 2026—contributed to a sharp increase in premium LV coal pricing. According to Wood Mackenzie, this event may result in prolonged operational disruptions due to chronic underinvestment in Queensland’s mining and logistical infrastructure. Despite these temporary supply constraints, we expect the overall pricing environment in 2026 to remain broadly consistent with 2025 levels, reflecting persistent global steel demand weakness, elevated Chinese steel exports, and continued abundance in global steelmaking coal supply.

The United States government continues to impose a broad range of tariffs on foreign goods imported into the U.S., with certain nations and regions enacting retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. Ongoing trade and tariff uncertainty has contributed to lower seaborne coal prices. Any newly implemented tariffs or other trade measures—whether imposed by the U.S. or by trading partners—could reduce economic activity, increase our operating costs, diminish demand for steelmaking coal, alter customer purchasing behaviors, disrupt our supply chain, or materially impact steelmaking coal pricing. These measures could also limit trade with the U.S. or produce other adverse economic outcomes.

It remains too early to quantify the impact of current or potential tariffs on our consolidated financial statements. We continue to monitor the evolving trade environment and evaluate actions to mitigate potential adverse effects on our business.

On July 4, 2025, the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBBA") was enacted into law and includes significant provisions, such as the permanent extension of certain expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The legislation has multiple effective dates, with certain provisions effectiv

[Excerpt truncated for page length; the complete text is on the linked full-MD&A page.]