ST JOE Co (JOE)

Item 2.         Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

The following discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with the accompanying unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements and related notes in Item 1 and with the audited consolidated financial statements and the related notes included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K. The statements in this discussion regarding industry outlook, our expectations regarding our future performance, liquidity and capital resources and other non-historical statements are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the risks and uncertainties described in “Forward-Looking Statements” below and “Risk Factors” beginning on page 7 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K. Our actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by any forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to revise or publicly release any revision to any forward-looking statements contained in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, unless required by law.

Business Overview

St. Joe is a diversified Florida real estate development, asset management and operating company with all of its real estate assets and operations in Northwest Florida. We intend to use existing assets for residential, hospitality and commercial ventures. We have significant residential and commercial land-use entitlements. We actively seek higher and better uses for our real estate assets through a range of development activities. As part of our core business strategy, we have created a meaningful portion of our business through JVs. We enter into these arrangements for the purposes of developing real estate and other business activities, which we believe allows us to complement our growth strategy, leverage industry expertise and diversify our business. We may partner with or explore the sale of discrete assets, such as our sale of a senior living community property in September 2025, in order to optimize resource allocation and maximize value. See Note 4. Joint Ventures for additional information. We seek to continue to enhance the value of our owned real estate assets by developing residential, hospitality and commercial projects to meet market demand. Approximately 87% of our real estate is located in Florida’s Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties. Approximately 90% of our real estate land holdings are located within fifteen miles of the Gulf.

We believe our present capital structure, liquidity and land provide us with years of opportunities to increase recurring revenue and long-term value for our shareholders. We intend to continue to focus on our core business activity of real estate development, asset management and operations by developing long-term, scalable residential communities, growing our hospitality offerings and expanding our portfolio of income producing commercial properties. In addition, we operate a real estate brokerage business, title insurance agency and insurance agency business. We continue to develop a broad range of asset types that we believe will provide acceptable rates of return, grow recurring revenues and support future business. Capital commitments will be funded with cash proceeds from completed projects, existing cash, owned-land, partner capital and financing arrangements. These investments are made with a long-term value creation perspective. Timing of projects may be subject to delays caused by factors beyond our control. We may also choose to operate rather than lease assets, lease rather than sell assets, or sell improved rather than unimproved land that may delay revenue and profits.

Our real estate investment strategy focuses on projects that meet long-term risk-adjusted return criteria. Our practice is to only incur such expenditures when our analysis indicates that a project will generate a return equal to or greater than the threshold return over its life.

Highlights for the second quarter of 2026 compared to the second quarter of 2025 include:

47

Table of Contents

​

Market Conditions

While macroeconomic factors such as uncertainty over tariffs, continued inflation, geopolitical conflicts, elevated interest rates and higher insurance costs for consumers and overall consumer confidence, among other things, continued to produce economic headwinds and impacted buyer sentiment in many parts of the country, our segments continued to generate positive financial results through the first six months of 2026. We believe this is primarily due to the continued growth of Northwest Florida as a result of net migration, which we attribute to the region’s high quality of life, natural beauty and outstanding amenities.

Elevated interest rates, market conditions in home states, and higher insurance costs have negatively impacted or delayed the ability of some buyers to obtain financing or sell their existing homes in their home states. The negative impact has been partially offset by the net migration into our markets and the number of cash buyers. In addition, we have not experienced an increase in cancellation rates as homebuilders have continued to perform on their contractual obligations with us.

Given our diverse portfolio of residential holdings, the mix of sales and pricing from different communities may impact revenue and margins period over period, as discussed in more detail below.

Reportable Segments

We conduct primarily all of our business in the following three reportable segments: (1) residential, (2) hospitality and (3) commercial.

The following table sets forth the relative contribution of these reportable segments to our consolidated revenue:

​

For more information regarding our reportable segments see Note 16. Segment Information.

Residential Segment

Our residential segment primarily plans and develops residential communities of various sizes across a wide range of price points and sells homesites to homebuilders or retail consumers. Our residential segment also evaluates opportunities to enter into JV agreements for specific communities such as Latitude Margaritaville Watersound.

The residential segment generates revenue from sales of homesites, homes and other residential land and certain homesite residuals from homebuilder sales that provide us a percentage of the sale price of the completed home if the home price exceeds a negotiated threshold. Revenue is recognized at the point in time when a sale is closed and title and control have been transferred to the buyer. The residential segment also generates revenue from the sale of tap and impact fee credits, marketing fees and other fees on certain transactions. Certain homesite residuals and other revenue related to homebuilder homesite sales are recognized in revenue at the point in time of the closing of the sale. The

48

Table of Contents

residential segment incurs costs from direct costs (e.g., development and construction costs), selling costs and other indirect costs. Cost of real estate revenue excludes depreciation, depletion and amortization expense.

Our residential segment includes the Bayside at Ward Creek, Breakfast Point East, Breakwater at Ward Creek, College Station, Park Place, Salt Creek at Mexico Beach, Salt Grass at Ward Creek, Titus Park, Watersound Camp Creek, Watersound Origins, Watersound Origins West and WindMark Beach communities, which are large scale, multi-phase communities with current development activity, sales activity or future phases. Homesites in these communities are developed based on market demand and sold primarily to homebuilders and on a limited basis to retail customers.

The East Lake Creek, East Lake Powell, Lake Powell, Lake Powell Estates, Park Place East, Pigeon Creek, Teachee, West Bay Creek and West Laird projects have phases of homesites in preliminary planning or permitting. Homesites in these projects will be developed based on market demand.

The SummerCamp Beach community has homesites available for sale and along with the RiverCamps and SouthWood communities, have additional lands for future development.

The Latitude Margaritaville Watersound community is a 55+ active adult residential community in Bay County, Florida. The community is located near the Intracoastal Waterway with convenient access to the Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport. The community is being developed through our unconsolidated Latitude Margaritaville Watersound JV with our partner Minto Communities USA, a homebuilder and community developer, and is estimated to include approximately 3,700 residential homes, which are being developed in smaller increments of discrete neighborhoods. As of June 30, 2026, the unconsolidated Latitude Margaritaville Watersound JV had completed 2,359 home sale transactions of the total estimated 3,700 homes planned in the community and had 183 homes under contract, which are expected to result in a sales value to the JV of approximately $115.1 million at closing of the homes. See Note 4. Joint Ventures for additional information.

The residential homesite pipeline by community/project is as follows:

[Excerpt truncated for page length; source filing is linked above.]

Item 7.    Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

The following discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with the accompanying audited consolidated financial statements and the related notes included in this Form 10-K. The statements in this discussion regarding industry outlook, our expectations regarding our future performance, liquidity and capital resources and other non-historical statements are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the risks and uncertainties described in “Risk Factors” in this Form 10-K. Our actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by any forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to revise or publicly release any revision to any forward-looking statements contained in this Form 10-K, unless required by law.

Business Overview

St. Joe is a diversified real estate development, asset management and operating company with all of its real estate assets and operations in Northwest Florida. We intend to use existing assets for residential, hospitality and commercial ventures. We have significant residential and commercial land-use entitlements. We actively seek higher and better uses for our real estate assets through a range of development activities. As part of our core business strategy, we have created a meaningful portion of our business through JVs. We enter into these arrangements for the purposes of developing real estate and other business activities, which we believe allows us to complement our growth strategy, leverage industry expertise and diversify our business. We may partner with or explore the sale of discrete assets, such as our sale of a senior living community property in September 2025, in order to optimize resource allocation and maximize value. See Note 4. Joint Ventures included in Item 15 of this Form 10-K for additional information. We seek to continue to enhance the value of our owned real estate assets by developing residential, hospitality and commercial projects to meet market demand. Approximately 87% of our real estate is located in Florida’s Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties. Approximately 90% of our real estate land holdings are located within fifteen miles of the Gulf.

We believe our present capital structure, liquidity and land provide us with years of opportunities to increase recurring revenue and long-term value for our shareholders. We intend to continue to focus on our core business activity of real estate development, asset management and operations by developing long-term, scalable residential communities, growing our hospitality offerings and expanding our portfolio of income producing commercial properties. We continue to develop a broad range of asset types that we believe will provide acceptable rates of return, grow recurring revenues and support future business. Capital commitments will be funded with cash proceeds from completed projects, existing cash, owned-land, partner capital and financing arrangements. These investments are made with a long-term value creation perspective. Timing of projects may be subject to delays caused by factors beyond our control. We may also choose to operate rather than lease assets, lease rather than sell assets, or sell improved rather than unimproved land that may delay revenue and profits.

Our real estate investment strategy focuses on projects that meet long-term risk-adjusted return criteria. Our practice is to only incur such expenditures when our analysis indicates that a project will generate a return equal to or greater than the threshold return over its life.

Highlights for the year ended December 31, 2025 compared to the year ended December 31, 2024 include:

24

Table of Contents

Market Conditions

While macroeconomic factors such as uncertainty over tariffs, inflation, elevated interest rates and higher insurance costs for consumers and overall consumer confidence, among other things, continued to produce economic headwinds and impacted buyer sentiment in many parts of the country, our segments continued to generate positive financial results throughout 2025. We believe this is primarily due to the continued growth of Northwest Florida as a result of net migration, which we attribute to the region’s high quality of life, natural beauty and outstanding amenities.

While elevated interest rates, market conditions in their home states and higher insurance costs have negatively impacted or delayed the ability of some buyers to obtain financing or sell their existing home in their home state, the impact has been partially offset by the net migration into our markets and the number of cash buyers. Market conditions have also not caused an increase in cancellation rates as homebuilders have continued to perform on their contractual obligations with us.

Given our diverse portfolio of residential holdings, the mix of sales and pricing from different communities may impact revenue and margins period over period, as discussed in more detail below. Further discussion of the potential impacts on our business from the current macroeconomic environment are included in Part I. Item 1A. Risk Factors.

Reportable Segments

We conduct primarily all of our business in the following three reportable segments: 1) residential, 2) hospitality and 3) commercial.

The following table sets forth the relative contribution of these reportable segments to our consolidated operating revenue:

​

For more information regarding our reportable segments, see Note 18. Segment Information included in Item 15 of this Form 10-K for additional information.

Residential Segment

Our residential segment typically plans and develops residential communities of various sizes across a wide range of price points and sells homesites to homebuilders or retail consumers. Our residential segment also evaluates opportunities to enter into JV agreements for specific communities such as Latitude Margaritaville Watersound.

The residential segment generates revenue from sales of homesites, homes and other residential land and certain homesite residuals from homebuilder sales that provide us a percentage of the sale price of the completed home if the home price exceeds a negotiated threshold. Revenue is recognized at the point in time when a sale is closed and title and control has been transferred to the buyer. The residential segment also generates revenue from the sale of tap and impact fee credits, marketing fees and other fees on certain transactions. Certain homesite residuals and other revenue related to

25

Table of Contents

homebuilder homesite sales are recognized in revenue at the point in time of the closing of the sale. The residential segment incurs cost from direct costs (e.g., development and construction costs), selling costs and other indirect costs. Cost of real estate revenue excludes depreciation, depletion and amortization expense.

Our residential segment includes the Bayside at Ward Creek, Breakfast Point East, Breakwater at Ward Creek, College Station, Park Place, Salt Creek at Mexico Beach, Salt Grass at Ward Creek, Titus Park, Watersound Camp Creek, Watersound Origins, Watersound Origins West and WindMark Beach communities, which are large scale, multi-phase communities with current development activity, sales activity or future phases. Homesites in these communities are developed based on market demand and sold primarily to homebuilders and on a limited basis to retail customers.

The East Lake Creek, East Lake Powell, Lake Powell, Pigeon Creek, Teachee, West Bay Creek and West Laird communities have phases of homesites in preliminary planning or permitting. Homesites in these communities will be developed based on market demand.

The SummerCamp Beach community has homesites available for sale and along with the RiverCamps and SouthWood communities, have additional lands for future development.

The Latitude Margaritaville Watersound community is a planned 55+ active adult residential community in Bay County, Florida. The community is located near the Intracoastal Waterway with convenient access to the Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport. The community is being developed through our unconsolidated Latitude Margaritaville Watersound JV with our partner Minto Communities USA, a homebuilder and community developer, and is estimated to include approximately 3,700 residential homes, which are being developed in smaller increments of discrete neighborhoods. As of December 31, 2025, the unconsolidated Latitude Margaritaville Watersound JV has completed 2,190 home sale transactions of the total estimated 3,700 homes planned in the community and had 149 homes under contract, which are expected to result in a sales value to the JV of approximately $88.8 million at closing of the homes. See Note 4. Joint Ventures included in Item 15 of this Form 10-K for additional information.

26

Table of Contents

The residential homesite pipeline by community/project are as follows:

[Excerpt truncated for page length; the complete text is on the linked full-MD&A page.]