NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) FY 2022 MD&A

Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

The following analysis of our financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements and notes thereto included below in Item 8 of this report and the Risk Factors included above in Part I, Item 1A of this report. In addition, investors should review the "Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements" above.

Overview

We provide private MI through our primary insurance subsidiary, NMIC. NMIC is wholly-owned, domiciled in Wisconsin and principally regulated by the Wisconsin OCI. NMIC is approved as an MI provider by the GSEs and is licensed to write coverage in all 50 states and D.C. Our subsidiary, NMIS, provides outsourced loan review services to mortgage loan originators and our subsidiary, Re One, historically provided reinsurance coverage to NMIC in accordance with certain statutory risk retention requirements. Such requirements have been repealed and the reinsurance coverage provided by Re One to NMIC has been commuted. Re One remains a wholly-owned, licensed insurance subsidiary; however, it does not currently have active insurance exposures.

MI protects lenders and investors from default-related losses on a portion of the unpaid principal balance of a covered mortgage. MI plays a critical role in the U.S. housing market by mitigating mortgage credit risk and facilitating the secondary market sale of high-LTV (i.e., above 80%) residential loans to the GSEs, who are otherwise restricted by their charters from purchasing or guaranteeing high-LTV mortgages that are not covered by certain credit protections. Such credit protection and secondary market sales allow lenders to increase their capacity for mortgage commitments and expand financing access to existing and prospective homeowners.

NMIH, a Delaware corporation, was incorporated in May 2011, and we began start-up operations in 2012 and wrote our first MI policy in 2013. Since formation, we have sought to establish customer relationships with a broad group of mortgage lenders and build a diversified, high-quality insured portfolio. As of December 31, 2022, we had issued master policies with 1,875 customers, including national and regional mortgage banks, money center banks, credit unions, community banks, builder-owned mortgage lenders, internet-sourced lenders and other non-bank lenders. As of December 31, 2022, we had $184.0 billion of primary IIF and $47.6 billion of primary RIF.

We believe that our success in acquiring a large and diverse group of lender customers and growing a portfolio of high-quality IIF traces to our founding principles, whereby we aim to help qualified individuals achieve their homeownership goals, ensure that we remain a strong and credible counter-party, deliver a high-quality customer service experience, establish a differentiated risk management approach that emphasizes the individual underwriting review or validation of the vast majority of the loans we insure, utilizing our proprietary Rate GPS® pricing platform to dynamically evaluate risk and price our policies, and foster a culture of collaboration and excellence that helps us attract and retain experienced industry leaders.

Our strategy is to continue to build on our position in the private MI market, expand our customer base and grow our insured portfolio of high-quality residential loans by focusing on long-term customer relationships, disciplined and proactive risk selection and pricing, fair and transparent claim payment practices, responsive customer service, and financial strength and profitability.

Our common stock trades on the Nasdaq under the symbol "NMIH." Our headquarters is located in Emeryville, California. As of December 31, 2022, we had 242 employees. Our corporate website is located at www.nationalmi.com. Our website and the information contained on or accessible through our website are not incorporated by reference into this report.

We discuss below our results of operations for the periods presented, as well as the conditions and trends that have impacted or are expected to impact our business, including new insurance writings, the composition of our insurance portfolio and other factors that we expect to impact our results.

58

Conditions and Trends Affecting Our Business

COVID-19 and Other Developments

On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of COVID-19 a global health emergency and subsequently characterized the outbreak as a global pandemic on March 11, 2020. In an effort to stem contagion and control the spread of the virus, the population at large severely curtailed day-to-day activity and local, state and federal regulators imposed a broad set of restrictions on personal and business conduct nationwide. The COVID-19 pandemic, along with the widespread public and regulatory response, caused a dramatic slowdown in U.S. and global economic activity.

The global dislocation caused by COVID-19 was unprecedented and the pandemic had a direct impact on the U.S. housing market, private mortgage insurance industry, and our business and operating performance for an extended period. More recently, however, the acute economic impact of COVID-19 has begun to recede. While the pandemic continues to pose a global risk and affect communities across the U.S., it is no longer the single dominant driver of our performance that it had been in earlier periods. COVID-19 is now one of several mosaic factors, including a range of macroeconomic forces and public policy initiatives that are influencing our market and business.

Although we are optimistic that the nationwide COVID-19 vaccination effort and other medical advances will continue to support a normalization of personal and business activity, the path of the virus remains unknown and subject to risk. Given this uncertainty, we are not able to fully assess or estimate the impact the pandemic may have on the mortgage insurance market, our business performance or our financial position at this time, and it remains possible COVID-19 could again trigger more severe and adverse outcomes in future periods.

It is also possible that emerging macroeconomic factors, including persistent inflation, increasing interest rates, flagging consumer confidence and increasing jobless claims could have a pronounced impact on the housing market, the mortgage insurance industry and our business in future periods. A marked decline in housing demand, a significant and protracted decrease in house prices or a sustained increase in unemployment could reduce the pace of new business activity in the private mortgage insurance market and negatively impact our future NIW volume, or contribute to an increase in our future default and claim experience.

Key Factors Affecting Our Results

Customer Development

We have important relationships with customers across all categories and allocation profiles, including National Accounts and Regional Accounts, and centralized and decentralized lenders. Our sales and marketing efforts are broadly focused on expanding our presence with existing customers and activating new customer relationships. We consider an activation to be the point at which we have signed a Master Policy, established IT connectivity and generated a first application or first dollar of NIW from a customer. During the year ended December 31, 2022, we activated 120 lenders, compared to 122 and 101 for the years ended December 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, respectively. We also continued to expand our business with existing customers, deepening our existing relationships and capturing what we believe to be an increasing portion of their annual MI volume. At December 31, 2022, we had issued 1,875 Master Policies and established 1,434 active customer relationships, compared to 1,732 and 1,316, respectively, as of December 31, 2021 and 1,570 and 1,195, respectively, as of December 31, 2020.

New Insurance Written, Insurance-In-Force and Risk-In-Force

NIW is the aggregate unpaid principal balance of mortgages underpinning new policies written during a given period. Our NIW is affected by the overall size of the mortgage origination market and the volume of high-LTV mortgage originations. Our NIW is also affected by the percentage of such high-LTV originations covered by private versus government MI or other alternative credit enhancement structures and our share of the private MI market. NIW, together with persistency, drives our IIF. IIF is the aggregate unpaid principal balance of the mortgages we insure, as reported to us by servicers at a given date, and represents the sum total of NIW from all prior periods less principal payments on insured mortgages and policy cancellations (including for prepayment, nonpayment of premiums, coverage rescission and claim payments). RIF is related to IIF and represents the aggregate amount of coverage we provide on all outstanding policies at a given date. RIF is calculated as the sum total of the coverage percentage of each individual policy in our portfolio applied to the unpaid principal balance of such insured mortgage. RIF is affected by IIF and the LTV profile of our insured mortgages, with lower LTV loans generally having a lower coverage percentage and higher LTV loans having a higher coverage percentage. Gross RIF represents RIF before consideration of reinsurance. Net RIF is gross RIF net of ceded reinsurance.

59

Net Premiums Written and Net Premiums Earned

We set our premium rates on individual policies based on the risk characteristics of the underlying mortgage loans and borrowers, and in accordance with our filed rates and applicable rating rules. On June 4, 2018, we introduced a proprietary risk-based pricing platform, which we refer to as Rate GPS®. Rate GPS® considers a broad range of individual variables, including property type, type of loan product, borrower credit characteristics, and lender and market factors, and provides us with the ability to set and charge premium rates commensurate with the underlying risk of each loan that we insure. We introduced Rate GPS® in June 2018 to replace our previous rate card pricing system. While most of our new business is priced through Rate GPS®, we also continue to offer a rate card pricing option to a limited number of lender customers who require a rate card for operational reasons. We believe the introduction and utilization of Rate GPS® provides us with a more granular and analytical approach to evaluating and pricing risk, and that this approach enhances our ability to continue building a high-quality mortgage insurance portfolio and delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns.

Premiums are generally fixed for the duration of our coverage of the underlying loans. Net premiums written are equal to gross premiums written minus ceded premiums written under our reinsurance arrangements, less premium refunds and premium write-offs. As a result, net premiums written are generally influenced by:

•NIW;

•premium rates and the mix of premium payment type, which are either single, monthly or annual premiums, as described below;

•cancellation rates of our insurance policies, which are impacted by payments or prepayments on mortgages, refinancings (which are affected by prevailing mortgage interest rates as compared to interest rates on loans underpinning our in force policies), levels of claim payments and home prices; and

•cession of premiums under third-party reinsurance arrangements.

Premiums are paid either by the borrower (BPMI) or the lender (LPMI) in a single payment at origination (single premium), on a monthly installment basis (monthly premium) or on an annual installment basis (annual premium). Our net premiums written will differ from our net premiums earned due to policy payment type. For single premiums, we receive a single premium payment at origination, which is earned over the estimated life of the policy. Substantially all of our single premium policies in force as of December 31, 2022 were non-refundable under most cancellation scenarios. If non-refundable single premium policies are canceled, we immediately recognize the remaining unearned premium balances as earned premium revenue. Monthly premiums are recognized in the month billed and when the coverage is effective. Annual premiums are earned on a straight-line basis over the year of coverage. Substantially all of our policies provide for either single or monthly premiums.

The percentage of IIF that remains on our books after any twelve-month period is defined as our persistency rate. Because our insurance premiums are earned over the life of a policy, higher persistency rates can have a significant impact on our net premiums earned and profitability. Generally, faster speeds of mortgage prepayment lead to lower persistency. Prepayment speeds and the relative mix of business between single and monthly premium policies also impact our profitability. Our premium rates include certain assumptions regarding repayment or prepayment speeds of the mortgages underlying our policies. Because premiums are paid at origination on single premium policies and our single premium policies are generally non-refundable on cancellation, assuming all other factors remain constant, if single premium loans are prepaid earlier than expected, our profitability on these loans is likely to increase and, if loans are repaid slower than expected, our profitability on these loans is likely to decrease. By contrast, if monthly premium loans are repaid earlier than anticipated, we do not earn any more premium with respect to those loans and, unless we replace the repaid monthly premium loan with a new loan at the same premium rate or higher, our revenue is likely to decline.

Effect of reinsurance on our results

We utilize third-party reinsurance to actively manage our risk, ensure compliance with PMIERs, state regulatory and other applicable capital requirements, and support the growth of our business. We currently have both quota share and excess-of-loss reinsurance agreements in place, which impact our results of operations and regulatory capital and PMIERs asset positions. Under a quota share reinsurance agreement, the reinsurer receives a premium in exchange for covering an agreed-upon portion of incurred losses. Such a quota share arrangement reduces premiums written and earned and also reduces RIF, providing capital relief to the ceding insurance company and reducing incurred claims in accordance with the terms of the reinsurance agreement. In addition, reinsurers typically pay ceding commissions as part of quota share transactions, which offset the ceding company's acquisition and underwriting expenses. Certain quota share agreements include profit commissions that are earned based on loss performance and serve to reduce ceded premiums. Under an excess-of-loss agreement, the ceding insurer is typically responsible

60

for losses up to an agreed-upon threshold and the reinsurer then provides coverage in excess of such threshold up to a maximum agreed-upon limit. We expect to continue to evaluate reinsurance opportunities in the normal course of business.

Excess-of-loss reinsurance

Insurance-linked notes

NMIC is party to reinsurance agreements with the Oaktown Re Vehicles that provide it with aggregate excess-of-loss reinsurance coverage on defined portfolios of mortgage insurance policies. Under each agreement, NMIC retains a first layer of aggregate loss exposure on covered policies and the respective Oaktown Re Vehicle then provides second layer loss protection up to a defined reinsurance coverage amount. NMIC then retains losses in excess of the respective reinsurance coverage amounts.

The respective reinsurance coverage amounts provided by the Oaktown Re Vehicles decrease over a ten-year period as the underlying insured mortgages are amortized or repaid, and/or the mortgage insurance coverage is canceled (except the coverage provided by Oaktown Re VI Ltd. and Oaktown Re VII Ltd., which decreases over a 12.5-year period). As the reinsurance coverage decreases, a prescribed amount of collateral held in trust by the Oaktown Re Vehicles is distributed to ILN Transaction noteholders as amortization of the outstanding insurance-linked note principal balances. The outstanding reinsurance coverage amounts stop amortizing, and the collateral distribution to ILN Transaction noteholders and amortization of insurance-linked note principal is suspended if certain credit enhancement or delinquency thresholds, as defined in each agreement, are triggered (each, a Lock-Out Event). As of December 31, 2022, the 2018 ILN Transaction was deemed to be in Lock Out due to the default experience of its underlying reference pool and the 2021-2 ILN Transaction was deemed to be in Lock Out in connection with the initial build of its target credit enhancement level. As such, the amortization of reinsurance coverage, and distribution of collateral assets and amortization of insurance-linked notes was suspended for both ILN Transactions. The amortization of reinsurance coverage, distribution of collateral assets and amortization of insurance-linked notes issued in connection with the 2018 and 2021-2 ILN Transactions will remain suspended for the duration of the Lock-Out Event for each respective ILN Transaction, and during such period assets will be preserved in the applicable reinsurance trust account to collateralize the excess-of-loss reinsurance coverage provided to NMIC. Effective August 31, 2022, a Lock-Out Event for the 2019 ILN Transaction was deemed to have cleared and amortization of the associated reinsurance coverage, and distribution of collateral assets and amortization of the associated insurance-linked notes resumed.

NMIC holds optional termination rights under each ILN Transaction, including, among others, an optional call feature which provides NMIC the discretion to terminate the transaction on or after a prescribed date, and a clean-up call if the outstanding reinsurance coverage amount amortizes to 10% or less of the reinsurance coverage amount at inception or if NMIC reasonably determines that changes to GSE or rating agency asset requirements would cause a material and adverse effect on the capital treatment afforded to NMIC under a given agreement. In addition, there are certain events that trigger mandatory termination of an agreement, including NMIC's failure to pay premiums or consent to reductions in a trust account to make principal payments to noteholders, among others.

Effective March 25, 2022 and April 25, 2022, NMIC exercised its optional clean-up call to terminate and commute its previously outstanding excess of loss reinsurance agreements with Oaktown Re Ltd. and Oaktown Re IV Ltd., respectively. In connection with the termination and commutation of each respective agreement, the insurance-linked notes issued by Oaktown Re Ltd. and Oaktown Re IV Ltd. were redeemed in full with a distribution of remaining collateral assets.

The following table presents the inception date, covered production period, current reinsurance coverage amount, current first layer retained aggregate loss and detail on the level of overcollateralization under each outstanding ILN Transaction. Current amounts are presented as of December 31, 2022.

61

(1)     Approximately 1% of the production covered by the 2020-2 ILN Transaction has coverage reporting dates between July 1, 2019 and March 31, 2020.

(2)    Approximately 1% of the production covered by the 2021-1 ILN Transaction has coverage reporting dates between July 1, 2019 and September 30, 2020.

(3)    Approximately 2% of the production covered by the 2021-2 ILN Transaction has coverage reporting dates between July 1, 2019 and March 31, 2021.

(4) Absent a delinquency trigger, the subordinated coverage is capped at 7.5%, 6.25%, 6.75% and 7.45% for the 2019, 2020-2, 2021-1 and 2021-2 ILN Transactions, respectively.

(5)    Overcollateralization for each of the 2018 and 2019 ILN Transactions is equal to their current reinsurance coverage as the PMIERs required asset amount on RIF ceded under each transaction is currently below its remaining first layer retained loss.

(6)    May not be replicated based on the rounded figures presented in the table.

(7)    Delinquency triggers for the 2018 and 2019 ILN Transactions are set at a fixed 4.0% and assessed on a discrete monthly basis; delinquency triggers for the 2020-2, 2021-1 and 2021-2 ILN Transactions are equal to seventy-five percent of the subordinated coverage level and assessed on the basis of a three-month rolling average.

Traditional reinsurance

NMIC is a party to three excess-of-loss reinsurance agreements with broad panels of third-party reinsurers – the 2022-1 XOL Transaction, effective April 1, 2022, the 2022-2 XOL Transaction, effective July 1, 2022, and the 2022-3 XOL Transaction, effective October 1, 2022 – which we refer to collectively as the XOL Transactions. Each XOL Transaction provides NMIC with aggregate excess-of-loss reinsurance coverage on a defined portfolio of mortgage insurance policies. Under each agreement, NMIC retains a first layer of aggregate loss exposure on covered policies and the reinsurers then provide second layer loss protection up to a defined reinsurance coverage amount. The reinsurance coverage amount of each XOL Transaction is set to approximate the PMIERs minimum required assets of its reference pool and decreases from the inception of each respective agreement over a ten-year period in the event the PMIERs minimum required assets of the pool declines. NMIC retains losses in excess of the outstanding reinsurance coverage amount.

NMIC holds optional termination rights which provide it the discretion to terminate each XOL Transaction on or after a specified date. NMIC may also elect to terminate the XOL Transactions at any point if the outstanding reinsurance coverage amount amortizes to 10% or less of the reinsurance coverage amount provided at inception, or if it determines that it will no longer be able to take full PMIERs asset credit for the coverage. Additionally, under the terms of the treaties, NMIC may selectively terminate its engagement with individual reinsurers under certain circumstances. Such selective termination rights arise when, among other reasons, a reinsurer experiences a deterioration in its capital position below a prescribed threshold, and/or a reinsurer breaches (and fails to cure) its collateral posting obligation.

Each of the third-party reinsurance providers that is party to the XOL Transactions has an insurer financial strength rating of A- or better by S&P, A.M. Best or both.

The following table presents the inception date, covered production period, initial and current reinsurance coverage amount, and initial and current first layer retained aggregate loss under each outstanding XOL Transaction. Current amounts are presented as of December 31, 2022.

62

(1)    NMIC applies claims paid on covered policies against its first layer aggregate retained loss exposure and cedes reserves for incurred claims and claim expenses to each applicable XOL Transaction and recognizes a reinsurance recoverable if such incurred claims and claim expenses exceed its current first layer retained loss.

(2)     Approximately 1% of the production covered by the 2022-1 XOL Transaction has coverage reporting dates between October 21, 2019 and September 30, 2021.

(3)     Approximately 1% of the production covered by the 2022-2 XOL Transaction has coverage reporting dates between January 4, 2021 and March 31, 2022.

Quota share reinsurance

NMIC is a party to seven quota share reinsurance treaties – the 2016 QSR Transaction, effective September 1, 2016, the 2018 QSR Transaction, effective January 1, 2018, the 2020 QSR Transaction, effective April 1, 2020, the 2021 QSR Transaction, effective January 1, 2021, the 2022 QSR Transaction, effective October 1, 2021, the 2022 Seasoned QSR Transaction, effective July 1, 2022 and the 2023 QSR Transaction, effective January 1, 2023 – which we refer to collectively as the QSR Transactions. Under each of the QSR Transactions, NMIC cedes a proportional share of its risk on eligible policies to panels of third-party reinsurance providers. Each of the third-party reinsurance providers that is party to the QSR Transactions has an insurer financial strength rating of A- or better by S&P, A.M. Best or both.

Under the terms of the 2016 QSR Transaction, NMIC cedes premiums written related to 25% of the risk on eligible primary policies written for all periods through December 31, 2017 and 100% of the risk under our pool agreement with Fannie Mae, in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claim expenses on covered policies, a 20% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 60% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims.

Under the terms of the 2018 QSR Transaction, NMIC cedes premiums earned related to 25% of the risk on eligible policies written in 2018 and 20% of the risk on eligible policies written in 2019, in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claim expenses on covered policies, a 20% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 61% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims.

Under the terms of the 2020 QSR Transaction, NMIC cedes premiums earned related to 21% of the risk on eligible policies written from April 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020, in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claim expenses on covered policies, a 20% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 50% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims.

Under the terms of the 2021 QSR Transaction, NMIC cedes premiums earned related to 22.5% of the risk on eligible policies written in 2021 (subject to an aggregate risk written limit which was exhausted on October 30, 2021), in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claim expenses on covered policies, a 20% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 57.5% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims.

Under the terms of the 2022 QSR Transaction, NMIC cedes premiums earned related to 20% of the risk on eligible policies written between October 30, 2021 and December 31, 2022, in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claim expenses on covered policies, a 20% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 62% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims.

In connection with the 2022 QSR Transaction, NMIC entered into the 2023 QSR Transaction as a springing back-to-back quota share agreement. Under the terms of the 2023 QSR Transactions, NMIC cedes premiums earned related to 20% of the risk on eligible policies written from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023, in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claim expenses on covered policies, a 20% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 62% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims.

Under the terms of the 2022 Seasoned QSR Transaction, NMIC cedes premiums earned related to 95% of the net risk on eligible policies primarily for a seasoned pool of mortgage insurance policies that had previously been covered under the retired Oaktown Re Ltd. and Oaktown Re IV Ltd. reinsurance transactions, after the consideration of coverage provided by other QSR Transactions, in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claim expenses on covered policies, a 35% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 55% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims.

63

NMIC may terminate any or all of the QSR Transactions without penalty if, due to a change in PMIERs requirements, it is no longer able to take full PMIERs asset credit for the RIF ceded under the respective agreements. Additionally, under the terms of the QSR Transactions, NMIC may elect to selectively to terminate its engagement with individual reinsurers on a run-off basis (i.e., reinsurers continue providing coverage on all risk ceded prior to the termination date, with no new cessions going forward) or cut-off basis (i.e., the reinsurance arrangement is completely terminated with NMIC recapturing all previously ceded risk) under certain circumstances. Such selective termination rights arise when, among other reasons, a reinsurer experiences a deterioration in its capital position below a prescribed threshold and/or a reinsurer breaches (and fails to cure) its collateral posting obligations under the relevant agreement.

Effective April 1, 2019, NMIC elected to terminate its engagement with one reinsurer under the 2016 QSR Transaction on a cut-off basis. In connection with the termination, NMIC recaptured approximately $500 million of previously ceded primary RIF and stopped ceding new premiums written with respect to the recaptured risk. With this termination, ceded premiums written under the 2016 QSR Transaction decreased from 25% to 20.5% on eligible policies. The termination had no effect on the cession of pool risk under the 2016 QSR Transaction.

See Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 6, Reinsurance" for further discussion of these third-party reinsurance arrangements.

Portfolio Data

The following table presents primary and pool NIW and IIF as of the dates and for the periods indicated. Unless otherwise noted, the tables below do not include the effects of our third-party reinsurance arrangements described above.

For the year ended December 31, 2022, NIW decreased 31% compared to the year ended December 31, 2021, primarily due to a decline in the size of the total mortgage insurance market. For the year ended December 31, 2021, NIW increased 36% compared to the year ended December 31, 2020, driven by growth in our customer franchise and market presence tied to the increased penetration of existing customer accounts and new customer account activations.

Total IIF increased 20% at December 31, 2022 compared to December 31, 2021, which in turn grew 36% compared to December 31, 2020, primarily due to the NIW generated between such measurement dates, partially offset by the run-off of in-force policies.

Our persistency rate improved to 84% at December 31, 2022, compared to 64% at December 31, 2021 and 56% at December 31, 2020. Our persistency rate improved markedly through December 31, 2022 due to a slowdown in the pace of refinancing activity during the year, driven by an increase in interest and mortgage note rates. Our persistency rates as of December 31, 2021 and 2020 were historically low, reflecting the impact of significant mortgage refinancing activity during both years.

The following table presents net premiums written and earned for the periods indicated:

64

Net premiums written decreased 2% during the year ended December 31, 2022 compared to the year ended December 31, 2021, reflecting an increase in cessions under our reinsurance transactions and a decline in single premium policy production, balanced by growth in our monthly IIF and monthly pay policy premium receipts during the year. Net premiums written increased 21% during the year ended December 31, 2021 compared to the year ended December 31, 2020, primarily driven by the growth of our IIF and increased monthly policy production, partially offset by increased cessions under our reinsurance transactions during the year.

Net premiums earned increased 7% and 12% during the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. The sequential increase in net premiums earned during each successive year was primarily driven by our NIW production and growth of our IIF, partially offset by an increase in total premiums ceded under our reinsurance transactions, a decline in the contribution from single premium policy cancellations and the run-off of a portion of our prior period monthly policy production and associated premium receipts.

Pool premiums written and earned for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, were $1.2 million, $1.6 million and $2.5 million, respectively, before giving effect to the 2016 QSR Transaction, under which all of our written and earned pool premiums are ceded. A portion of our ceded pool premiums written and earned are recouped through profit commission.

Portfolio Statistics

Unless otherwise noted, the portfolio statistics tables presented below do not include the effects of our third-party reinsurance arrangements described above. The table below highlights trends in our primary portfolio as of the dates and for the periods indicated.

(1)    Reported as of the end of the period.

(2)    Calculated as end of period RIF divided by end of period IIF.

(3)     Calculated as net premiums earned divided by average primary IIF for the period.

(4) Defined as the percentage of IIF that remains on our books after a given twelve-month period.

(5) Defined as the percentage of IIF that is no longer on our books after a given three-month period. Figures shown represent fourth quarter values for the respective years.

65

The table below presents a summary of the change in total primary IIF for the dates and periods indicated.

We consider a "book" to be a collective pool of policies insured during a particular period, normally a calendar year. In general, the majority of underwriting profit, calculated as earned premium revenue minus claims and underwriting and operating expenses, generated by a particular book year emerges in the years immediately following origination. This pattern generally occurs because relatively few of the claims that a book will ultimately experience typically occur in the first few years following origination, when premium revenue is highest, while subsequent years are affected by declining premium revenues, as the number of insured loans decreases (primarily due to loan prepayments), and by increasing losses.

The table below presents a summary of our primary IIF and RIF by book year as of the dates indicated.

We utilize certain risk principles that form the basis of how we underwrite and originate NIW. We have established prudential underwriting standards and loan-level eligibility matrices which prescribe the maximum LTV, minimum borrower FICO score, maximum borrower DTI ratio, maximum loan size, property type, loan type, loan term and occupancy status of loans that we will insure and memorialized these standards and eligibility matrices in our Underwriting Guideline Manual that is publicly available on our website. Our underwriting standards and eligibility criteria are designed to limit the layering of risk in a single insurance policy. "Layered risk" refers to the accumulation of borrower, loan and property risk. For example, we have higher credit score and lower maximum allowed LTV requirements for investor-owned properties, compared to owner-occupied properties. We monitor the concentrations of various risk attributes in our insurance portfolio, which may change over time, in part, as a result of regional conditions or public policy shifts.

The tables below present our primary NIW by FICO, LTV and purchase/refinance mix for the periods indicated. We calculate the LTV of a loan as the percentage of the original loan amount to the original purchase value of the property securing the loan.

66

The tables below present our total primary IIF and RIF by FICO and LTV, and total primary RIF by loan type as of the dates indicated.

67

68

The table below presents selected primary portfolio statistics, by book year, as of December 31, 2022.

(1)    Calculated as total claims incurred (paid and reserved) divided by cumulative premiums earned, net of reinsurance.

(2)    Calculated as the sum of the number of claims paid ever to date and number of loans in default divided by policies ever in force.

(3)    Calculated as the number of loans in default divided by number of policies in force.

Geographic Dispersion

The following table shows the distribution by state of our primary RIF as of the dates indicated. The distribution of our primary RIF as of December 31, 2022 is not necessarily representative of the geographic distribution we expect in the future.

Insurance Claims and Claim Expenses

Insurance claims and claim expenses incurred represent estimated future payments on newly defaulted insured loans and any change in our claim estimates for previously existing defaults. Claims incurred are generally affected by a variety of factors, including:

•future macroeconomic factors, including national and regional unemployment rates, which affect the likelihood that borrowers may default on their loans and probability of claims, and interest rates, which tend to drive increased persistency as they rise, thereby extending the average life of our insured portfolio and increasing expected future claims and decrease persistency as they fall, thereby shortening the average life of our insured portfolio and moderating future expected claims;

69

•changes in housing values, as such changes affect loss mitigation opportunities (available to us and a borrower) on loans in default, as well as borrowers' behaviors and willingness to default if the values of their homes are below or perceived to be below the balance of their mortgage;

•borrowers' FICO scores, with lower FICO scores tending to have a higher probability of claims;

•borrowers' DTI ratios, with higher DTI ratios tending to have a higher probability of claims;

•LTV ratios, with higher average LTV ratios tending to increase the probability of claims;

•the size of loans insured, with higher loan amounts tending to result in higher incurred claim amounts than smaller loan amounts;

•the percentage of coverage on insured loans, with higher percentages of insurance coverage tending to result in higher incurred claim amounts than lower percentages of insurance coverage;

•other borrower, property-type and loan level risk characteristics, such as cash-out refinancings, second homes or investment properties; and

•the level and amount of reinsurance coverage maintained with third parties.

Reserves for claims and claim expenses are established for mortgage loans that are in default. A loan is considered to be in default as of the payment date at which a borrower has missed the preceding two or more consecutive monthly payments. We establish reserves for loans that have been reported to us in default by servicers, referred to as case reserves, and additional loans that we estimate (based on actuarial review and other factors) to be in default that have not yet been reported to us by servicers, referred to as IBNR. We also establish reserves for claim expenses, which represent the estimated cost of the claim administration process, including legal and other fees and other general expenses of administering the claim settlement process. Reserves are not established for future claims on insured loans which are not currently reported or which we estimate are not currently in default.

Reserves are established by estimating the number of loans in default that will result in a claim payment, which is referred to as claim frequency, and the amount of the claim payment expected to be paid on each such loan in default, which is referred to as claim severity. Claim frequency and severity estimates are established based on historical observed experience regarding certain loan factors, such as age of the default, cure rates, size of the loan and estimated change in property value. Reserves are released the month in which a loan in default is brought current by the borrower, which is referred to as a cure. Adjustments to reserve estimates are reflected in the period in which the adjustment is made. Reserves are also ceded to reinsurers under the QSR Transactions, ILN Transactions and XOL Transactions as applicable under each treaty. We have not yet ceded reserves under any of the ILN Transactions or XOL Transactions as incurred claims and claim expenses on each respective reference pool remain within our retained coverage layer of each transaction. Our pool insurance agreement with Fannie Mae contains a claim deductible through which Fannie Mae absorbs specified losses before we are obligated to pay any claims. We have not established any claims or claim expense reserves for pool exposure to date.

The actual claims we incur as our portfolio matures are difficult to predict and depend on the specific characteristics of our current in-force book (including the credit score and DTI of the borrower, the LTV ratio of the mortgage and geographic concentrations, among others), as well as the risk profile of new business we write in the future. In addition, claims experience will be affected by macroeconomic factors such as housing prices, interest rates, unemployment rates and other events, such as natural disasters or global pandemics, and any federal, state or local governmental response thereto.

Our reserve setting process considers the beneficial impact of forbearance, foreclosure moratorium and other assistance programs available to defaulted borrowers. We generally observe that forbearance programs are an effective tool to bridge dislocated borrowers from a time of acute stress to a future date when they can resume timely payment of their mortgage obligations. The effectiveness of forbearance programs is enhanced by the availability of various repayment and loan modification options which allow borrowers to amortize or, in certain instances, outright defer payments otherwise due during the forbearance period over an extended length of time.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, politicians, regulators, lenders, loan servicers and others have offered extraordinary assistance to dislocated borrowers through, among other programs, the forbearance, foreclosure moratorium and other assistance programs codified under the CARES Act. The FHFA and GSEs have offered further assistance by introducing new repayment and loan modification options to assist borrowers with their transition out of forbearance programs and default status. We generally observe that forbearance, repayment and modification, and other assistance programs aid affected borrowers and drive higher cure rates on defaults than would otherwise be expected on similarly situated loans that did not benefit from broad-based assistance programs.

Although we are optimistic that the nationwide COVID-19 vaccination effort and other medical advances will continue

70

to support a normalization of personal and business activity, the path of the virus remains unknown and subject to risk. It is also possible that emerging macroeconomic factors, including persistent inflation, increasing interest rates, flagging consumer confidence and increasing jobless claims could have a pronounced impact on the housing market, the mortgage insurance industry and our business in future periods. A marked decline in housing demand, a significant and protracted decrease in house prices or a sustained increase in unemployment could contribute to an increase in our future default and claim experience.

The following table provides a reconciliation of the beginning and ending gross reserve balances for primary insurance claims and claim (benefits) expenses:

(1)    Related to ceded losses recoverable under the QSR Transactions. See Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 6, Reinsurance," for additional information.

(2) Related to insured loans with their most recent defaults occurring in the current year. For example, if a loan defaulted in a prior year and subsequently cured and later re-defaulted in the current year, the default would be included in the current year. Amounts are presented net of reinsurance and included $39.9 million attributed to net case reserves and $4.5 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2022, $18.1 million attributed to net case reserves and $4.7 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2021, and $60.8 million attributed to net case reserves and $5.0 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2020.

(3) Related to insured loans with defaults occurring in prior years, which have been continuously in default before the start of the current year. Amounts are presented net of reinsurance and included $42.5 million attributed to net case reserves and $4.7 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2022, $6.3 million attributed to net case reserves and $5.0 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2021, and $6.2 million attributed to net case reserves and $1.3 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2020.

The "claims incurred" section of the table above shows claims and claim expenses incurred on defaults occurring in current and prior years, including IBNR reserves and is presented net of reinsurance. We may increase or decrease our claim estimates and reserves as we learn additional information about individual defaulted loans and continue to observe and analyze loss development trends in our portfolio. Gross reserves of $41.5 million related to prior year defaults remained as of December 31, 2022.

71

The following table provides a reconciliation of the beginning and ending count of loans in default:

Ending default inventory declined successively during each of the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, as borrowers initially impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic during the year ended December 31, 2020 continued to cure their delinquencies and fewer new defaults emerged in each successive period as the acute economic stress of the pandemic continued to recede.

The following table provides details of our claims paid, before giving effect to claims ceded under the QSR Transactions for the periods indicated:

(1)    Count includes 30, 15 and nine claims settled without payment for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively.

(2)    Severity represents the total amount of claims paid including claim expenses divided by the related RIF on the loan at the time the claim is perfected, and is calculated including claims settled without payment.

The Company paid 81, 82 and 143 claims for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The number of claims paid was modest relative to the size of our insured portfolio and number of defaulted loans we reported in each period, primarily due to the forbearance program and foreclosure moratorium implemented by the GSEs in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and codified under the CARES Act. Such forbearance and foreclosure programs have extended, and may ultimately interrupt, the timeline over which loans would otherwise progress through the default cycle to a paid claim. Our claims paid experience for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, further benefited from broad national house price appreciation. An increase in the value of the homes collateralizing the mortgages we insure provides defaulted borrowers with alternative paths and incentives to cure their loan prior to the development of a claim.

Our claims severity for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020 was 49%, 59% and 80%. Claims severity in each year benefited from the same broad national house price appreciation that supported our claims paid experience. An increase in the value of the homes collateralizing the mortgages we insure provides additional equity support to our risk exposure and raises the prospect of a third-party sale of a foreclosed property, which can mitigate the severity of our settled claims.

The number of claims paid and our severity experience in future periods may be impacted by developing economic cycles and each could increase if house price declines serve to limit the alternative paths and incentives to cure delinquencies that are available to defaulted borrowers or erode the equity value of the homes collateralizing the mortgages we insure.

72

The following table provides detail on our average reserve per default, before giving effect to reserves ceded under the QSR Transactions, as of the dates indicated:

(1)    Defined as the gross reserve per insured loan in default.

(2)    Amount includes claims adjustment expenses.

Average reserve per default increased from December 31, 2021 to December 31, 2022, primarily due to an incrementally conservative set of assumptions about future macroeconomic and housing market conditions compared to those assumed at December 31, 2021. The increased average reserve per default at December 31, 2022 also reflects the “aging” of early COVID-related defaults. While we initially established lower reserves for defaults that we consider to be connected to the COVID-19 pandemic given our expectation that forbearance, repayment and modification, and other assistance programs will aid affected borrowers and drive higher cure rates on such defaults than we would otherwise expect to experience on similarly situated loans that did not benefit from broad-based assistance programs, we have increased such reserves over time as individual defaults remain outstanding or “age.” While average reserve per default increased from December 31, 2021 to December 31, 2022, our aggregate gross reserve position declined in the intervening period due to the decline in our total default inventory.

The average reserve per default increased from December 31, 2020 to December 31, 2021, primarily due to the “aging” of early COVID-related defaults.

Seasonality

Historically, our business has been subject to modest seasonality in both NIW production and default experience. Consistent with the seasonality of home sales, purchase origination volumes typically increase in late spring and peak during the summer months, leading to a rise in NIW volume during the second and third quarters of a given year. Refinancing volume, however, does not follow a set seasonal trend and is instead primarily influenced by mortgage rates. Fluctuations in refinancing volume (driven by changes in prevailing mortgage rates) may serve to mute or magnify the seasonal effect of home purchase patterns on mortgage insurance NIW. Further, the COVID pandemic and resulting shelter-in-place directives spurred record housing demand during the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, and purchase origination NIW remained elevated through the entirety of each year given the consistently high demand for home ownership. Our NIW production during the year ended December 31, 2022 returned to a more normalized seasonal pattern as the impact of the pandemic continued to recede and increasing mortgage rates slowed refinancing activity.

GSE Oversight

As an approved insurer, NMIC is subject to ongoing compliance with the PMIERs established by each of the GSEs (italicized terms have the same meaning that such terms have in the PMIERs, as described below). The PMIERs establish operational, business, remedial and financial requirements applicable to approved insurers. The PMIERs financial requirements prescribe a risk-based methodology whereby the amount of assets required to be held against each insured loan is determined based on certain loan-level risk characteristics, such as FICO, vintage (year of origination), performing vs. non-performing (i.e., current vs. delinquent), LTV ratio and other risk features. In general, higher quality loans carry lower asset charges.

Under the PMIERs, approved insurers must maintain available assets that equal or exceed minimum required assets, which is an amount equal to the greater of (i) $400 million or (ii) a total risk-based required asset amount. The risk-based required asset amount is a function of the risk profile of an approved insurer's RIF, assessed on a loan-by-loan basis and considered against certain risk-based factors derived from tables set out in the PMIERs, which is then adjusted on an aggregate basis for reinsurance transactions approved by the GSEs, such as with respect to our ILN Transactions, XOL Transactions and QSR Transactions. The aggregate gross risk-based required asset amount for performing, primary insurance is subject to a floor of 5.6% of performing primary adjusted RIF, and the risk-based required asset amount for pool insurance considers both factors in the PMIERs tables and the net remaining stop loss for each pool insurance policy.

By April 15th of each year, NMIC must certify it met all PMIERs requirements as of December 31st of the prior year. We certified to the GSEs by April 15, 2022 that NMIC was in full compliance with the PMIERs as of December 31, 2021. NMIC

73

also has an ongoing obligation to immediately notify the GSEs in writing upon discovery of a failure to meet one or more of the PMIERs requirements. We continuously monitor NMIC's compliance with the PMIERs.

The following table provides a comparison of the PMIERs available assets and risk-based required asset amount as reported by NMIC as of the dates indicated:

Available assets were $2.4 billion at December 31, 2022, compared to $2.0 billion at December 31, 2021 and $1.8 billion at December 31, 2020. The sequential increase in available assets between the dates presented was primarily driven by NMIC's positive cash flow from operations during the respective intervening periods. The increase in available assets during the year ended December 31, 2022 was partially offset by the payments in 2022, of an ordinary course dividend from NMIC to NMIH and an extraordinary dividend from Re One to NMIH following the termination and commutation of the reinsurance agreement between NMIC and Re One.

The increase in the risk-based required asset amount between the dates presented was primarily driven by growth in our gross RIF and aggregate gross risk-based required asset amount, largely offset by an increase in the risk ceded under our third-party reinsurance agreements.

Competition

The MI industry is highly competitive and currently consists of six private mortgage insurers, including NMIC, as well as government MIs such as the FHA, USDA or VA. Private MI companies compete based on service, customer relationships, underwriting and other factors, including price, credit risk tolerance and IT capabilities. We expect the private MI market to remain competitive, with pressure for industry participants to maintain or grow their market share.

The private MI industry overall competes more broadly with government MIs who significantly increased their share in the MI market following the 2008 Financial Crisis. Although there has been broad policy consensus toward the need for increasing private capital participation and decreasing government exposure to credit risk in the U.S. housing finance system, it remains difficult to predict whether the combined market share of government MIs will recede to pre-2008 levels. A range of factors influence a lender's and borrower's decision to choose private over government MI, including among others, premium rates and other charges, loan eligibility requirements, the cancelability of private coverage, loan size limits and the relative ease of use of private MI products compared to government MI alternatives.

Cybersecurity

We rely on technology to engage with customers, access borrower information and deliver our products and services. We have established and implemented security measures, controls and procedures to safeguard our IT systems, and prevent and detect unauthorized access to such systems or any data processed and/or stored therein. We periodically engage third parties to evaluate and test the adequacy of such security measures, controls and procedures. In addition, we have a business continuity plan that is designed to allow us to continue to operate in the midst of certain disruptive events, including disruptions to our IT systems, and we have an incident response plan that is designed to address information security incidents, including any breaches of our IT systems. Despite these safeguards, disruptions to and breaches of our IT systems are possible and may negatively impact our business.

We maintain a cybersecurity errors and omissions insurance policy to limit our exposure to loss in the event of an incident. This policy provides coverage for (i) claims related to, among other things, unauthorized network or computer access, unintentional disclosure or misuse of personally identifiable information in our possession, and unintentional failure to disclose a breach, and (ii) certain costs related to privacy notification, crisis management, cyber extortion, data recovery, business interruption and reputational harm.

LIBOR Transition

On March 5, 2021, ICE Benchmark Administration Limited (IBA), the administrator for LIBOR, confirmed it would permanently cease the publication of overnight, one-month, three-month, six-month and twelve-month USD LIBOR settings in

74

their current form after June 30, 2023. The U.K. Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), the regulator of IBA, announced on the same day that it intends to stop requiring panel banks to continue to submit to LIBOR and all USD LIBOR settings in their current form will either cease to be provided by any administrator or no longer be representative after June 30, 2023. We have exposure to USD LIBOR-based financial instruments, such as LIBOR-based securities held in our investment portfolio and certain ILN Transactions that require LIBOR-based payments. We reviewed our LIBOR-based contracts and each contains provisions that dictate a transition to an alternative reference rate at the time of the discontinuance of LIBOR. We will continue to monitor the impact of the phase out of LIBOR; however, we do not expect the transition will have a material impact on our operations or financial results.

75

Consolidated Results of Operations

(1)    Loss ratio is calculated by dividing insurance claims and claim (benefits) expenses by net premiums earned.

(2)    Expense ratio is calculated by dividing underwriting and operating expenses by net premiums earned.

(3)    Combined ratio may not foot due to rounding.

(4)    See "Explanation and Reconciliation of Our Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures," below.

Revenues

Net premiums earned were $475.3 million, $444.3 million and $397.2 million for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The sequential increase in net premiums earned during each successive year was primarily driven by the growth of our IIF, partially offset by an increase in total premiums ceded under our reinsurance transactions and a decline in the contribution from single premium policy cancellations and the run-off of a portion of our prior period monthly policy production and associated premium receipts.

Net investment income was $46.4 million, $38.1 million and $31.9 million for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The sequential increase in net investment income during each successive year was primarily driven by the growth in the size of our total investment portfolio, excluding unrealized gains and losses.

Other revenues were $1.2 million, $2.0 million and $3.3 million for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Other revenues represent underwriting fee revenue generated by our subsidiary, NMIS, which provides outsourced

76

loan review services to mortgage loan originators. The sequential decrease in other revenues during each successive year reflects a decline in NMIS' outsourced loan review volume. Amounts recognized in other revenues generally correspond with amounts incurred as service expenses for outsourced loan review activities in the same periods.

Expenses

We recognize insurance claims and claim expenses in connection with the loss experience of our insured portfolio and incur other underwriting and operating expenses, including employee compensation and benefits, policy acquisition costs, and technology, professional services and facilities expenses, in connection with the development and operation of our business. We also incur service expenses in connection with NMIS' outsourced loan review activities.

Insurance claims and claim expenses were a benefit of $3.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2022, compared to insurance claims and claim expenses of $12.3 million and $59.2 million for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The sequential decline in insurance claims and claim expenses during each successive year reflects a decrease in the number of new defaults emerging on loans impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and benefited from cure activity and the associated release of a portion of the reserves we established for anticipated claims payments in prior periods.

Underwriting and operating expenses were $117.5 million, $142.3 million and $131.6 million for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Underwriting and operating expenses decreased $24.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2022 compared to the year ended December 31, 2021, driven by a decrease in the amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs tied to the improved persistency of our IIF, a decrease in payroll and stock-based compensation costs, a step-down in technology costs related to our agreement with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and a decline in capital markets transaction costs, partially offset by an increase in travel and entertainment expenses tied to the easing of COVID-19 related restrictions, as well as an increase in depreciation and amortization incurred in connection with the completion and implementation of certain software and equipment initiatives. Underwriting and operating expenses for the year ended December 31, 2022 further benefited from an increase in ceding commissions received upon the introduction of the 2022 Seasoned QSR Transaction effective July 1, 2022.

Underwriting and operating expenses increased $10.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2021 compared to the year ended December 31, 2020, primarily due to an increase in certain payroll costs incurred in connection with the CEO transition we announced on September 9, 2021, as well as incremental depreciation and amortization incurred in connection with the completion of certain development initiatives, an increase in the recognition of previously deferred policy acquisition costs taken in connection with in-force portfolio run-off and growth in other (non-CEO transition) payroll and related amounts.

Service expenses were $1.1 million, $2.5 million and $2.8 million for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Service expenses represent third-party costs incurred by NMIS in connection with the services it provides. The sequential decline in service expenses in each successive year was primarily driven by a decrease in NMIS' outsourced loan review volume. Amounts incurred as service expenses generally correspond with amounts recognized in other revenues in the same periods.

Interest expense was $32.2 million, $31.8 million and $24.4 million for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Interest expense increased during the year ended December 31, 2022 compared to the year ended December 31, 2021 due to an increase in commitment fees associated with the 2021 Revolving Credit Facility which had extended its borrowing capacity from $110 million to $250 million in November 2021. Interest expense increased during the year ended December 31, 2021 compared to the year ended December 31, 2020 in connection with the $400 million Notes offering and retirement of the $150 million 2018 Term Loan completed in June 2020. See Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 5, Debt."

Income tax expense was $84.4 million, $65.6 million and $46.5 million for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020. The sequential increase in income tax expense during each successive year was primarily driven by the growth in our pre-tax income. As a U.S. taxpayer, we are subject to a U.S. federal corporate income tax rate of 21%. Our effective income tax rate on pre-tax income was 22.4%, 22.1% and 21.3% for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Our effective tax rate increased for the year ended December 31, 2022 compared to the year ended December 31, 2021 primarily due to a re-measurement of deferred tax balances related to changes in state income tax rates. Our effective tax rate increased for the year ended December 31, 2021 compared to the year ended December 31, 2020, primarily due to a decline in the tax benefit realized from excess share-based compensation for vested restricted stock units (RSUs), exercised stock options, and the change in the fair value of our warrant liability in the period. For further information regarding income taxes and their impact on our results of operations and financial position, see Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 11, Income Taxes."

77

Net Income

Net income was $292.9 million, $231.1 million and $171.6 million for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Adjusted net income was $291.6 million, $236.8 million and $173.6 million, for the same periods, respectively. The increase in net income and adjusted net income during each successive year was primarily driven by growth in our total revenues and a decline in insurance claims and claim expenses, partially offset by an increase in income tax expenses. Net income and adjusted net income for the year ended December 31, 2022 further benefited from a decline in our underwriting and operating expenses during the period.

Diluted earnings per share (EPS) was $3.39, $2.65 and $2.13 for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Adjusted diluted EPS was $3.39, $2.73 and $2.19 for the same periods, respectively. Diluted and adjusted diluted EPS increased during each successive year due to growth in our net income and adjusted net income. Diluted and adjusted diluted EPS for the year ended December 31, 2022 further benefited from a decline in the number of weighted average diluted shares outstanding tied to share repurchase activity during the period.

The non-GAAP financial measures adjusted income before tax, adjusted net income and adjusted diluted EPS are presented to enhance the comparability of financial results between periods.

(1)    Marginal tax impact of non-GAAP adjustments is calculated based on our statutory U.S. federal corporate income tax rate of 21%, except for those items that are not eligible for an income tax deduction. Such non-deductible items include gains or losses from the change in the fair value of our warrant liability and certain costs incurred in connection with the CEO transition, which are limited under Section 162(m) of the Internal Revenue Code.

Explanation and Reconciliation of Our Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

We believe the use of the non-GAAP measures of adjusted income before tax, adjusted net income and adjusted diluted EPS enhances the comparability of our fundamental financial performance between periods, and provides relevant information to investors. These non-GAAP financial measures align with the way the company's business performance is evaluated by management. These measures are not prepared in accordance with GAAP and should not be viewed as alternatives to GAAP measures of performance. These measures have been presented to increase transparency and enhance the comparability of our fundamental operating trends across periods. Other companies may calculate these measures differently; their measures may not be comparable to those we calculate and present.

Adjusted income before tax is defined as GAAP income before tax, excluding the pre-tax effects of the gain or loss related to the change in fair value of our warrant liability, periodic costs incurred in connection with capital markets transactions,

78

net realized gains or losses from our investment portfolio, and other infrequent, unusual or non-operating items in the periods in which such items are incurred.

Adjusted net income is defined as GAAP net income, excluding the after-tax effects of the gain or loss related to the change in fair value of our warrant liability, periodic costs incurred in connection with capital markets transactions, net realized gains or losses from our investment portfolio, and other infrequent, unusual or non-operating items in the periods in which such items are incurred. Adjustments to components of pre-tax income are tax effected using the applicable federal statutory tax rate for the respective periods.

Adjusted diluted EPS is defined as adjusted net income divided by adjusted weighted average diluted shares outstanding. Adjusted weighted average diluted shares outstanding is defined as weighted average diluted shares outstanding, adjusted for changes in the dilutive effect of non-vested shares that would otherwise have occurred had GAAP net income been calculated in accordance with adjusted net income. There will be no adjustment to weighted average diluted shares outstanding in the years that non-vested shares are anti-dilutive under GAAP.

Although adjusted income before tax, adjusted net income and adjusted diluted EPS exclude certain items that have occurred in the past and are expected to occur in the future, the excluded items: (1) are not viewed as part of the operating performance of our primary activities; or (2) are impacted by market, economic or regulatory factors and are not necessarily indicative of operating trends, or both. These adjustments, and the reasons for their treatment, are described below.

•Change in fair value of warrant liability. Outstanding warrants at the end of each reporting period are revalued, and any change in fair value is reported in the statement of operations in the period in which the change occurred. The change in fair value of our warrant liability can vary significantly across periods and is influenced principally by equity market and general economic factors that do not impact or reflect our current period operating results. Furthermore, all unexercised warrants expired in April 2022 and, as such, no change in fair value will be recognized in future reporting periods. We believe trends in our operating performance can be more clearly identified by excluding fluctuations related to the change in fair value of our warrant liability.

•Capital markets transaction costs. Capital markets transaction costs result from activities that are undertaken to improve our debt profile or enhance our capital position through activities such as debt refinancing and capital markets reinsurance transactions that may vary in their size and timing due to factors such as market opportunities, tax and capital profile, and overall market cycles.

•Net realized investment gains and losses. The recognition of the net realized investment gains or losses can vary significantly across periods as the timing is highly discretionary and is influenced by factors such as market opportunities, tax and capital profile, and overall market cycles that do not reflect our current period operating results.

•Other infrequent, unusual or non-operating items. Items that are the result of unforeseen or uncommon events, and are not expected to recur with frequency in the future. Identification and exclusion of these items provides clarity about the impact special or rare occurrences may have on our current financial performance. Past adjustments under this category include infrequent, unusual or non-operating adjustments related to severance, restricted stock modification and other expenses incurred in connection with the CEO transition announced in September 2021 and the effects of the release of the valuation allowance recorded against our net federal and certain state net deferred tax assets in 2016 and the re-measurement of our net deferred tax assets in connection with tax reform in 2017. We believe such items are infrequent or non-recurring in nature, and are not indicative of the performance of, or ongoing trends in, our primary operating activities or business.

79

(1)    "Prepaid federal income taxes" have been reclassified from "Other assets" in the prior period.

(2)     "Prepaid reinsurance premiums" have been reclassified as "Other assets" in the prior period.

Total cash and investments were $2.1 billion as of December 31, 2022, compared to $2.2 billion as of December 31, 2021. Cash and investments at December 31, 2022 included $88.9 million held by NMIH. The decrease in total cash and investments reflects an increase in the unrealized loss position of our fixed income portfolio tied to the prevailing interest rate and credit spread environment, as well as share repurchase activity during the year ended December 31, 2022, partially offset by cash generated from operations. Excluding unrealized gains and losses, total cash and investments were $2.4 billion at December 31, 2022 compared to $2.1 billion at December 31, 2021.

Premium receivable was $69.7 million as of December 31, 2022, compared to $60.4 million as of December 31, 2021. The increase was primarily driven by growth in our monthly premium policies in force, where premiums are generally paid one month in arrears.

Net deferred policy acquisition costs were $58.6 million as of December 31, 2022, compared to $59.6 million as of December 31, 2021. The decrease was primarily driven by the recognition of previously deferred policy acquisition costs and was largely offset by the deferral of certain costs associated with the origination of new policies between the respective balance sheet dates.

Reinsurance recoverable was $21.6 million as of December 31, 2022, compared to $20.3 million as of December 31, 2021. The increase was driven by an increase in ceded losses recoverable associated with our QSR transactions.

Prepaid federal income taxes were $154.4 million as of December 31, 2022, compared to $89.2 million as of December 31, 2021. The increase was driven by the purchase of $65.2 million of tax and loss bonds during the year ended December 31, 2022. For more information, see Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 11, Income Taxes."

Other assets increased to $36.0 million as of December 31, 2022, compared to $26.5 million as of December 31, 2021. The increase was primarily driven by the recognition of incremental right-of-use assets in connection with the modification of the operating lease for our corporate headquarters in January 2022. For more information, see Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 14. Commitments and Contingencies."

80

Unearned premiums were $123.0 million as of December 31, 2022, compared to $139.2 million as of December 31, 2021. The decrease was driven by the amortization of existing unearned premiums through earnings in accordance with the expiration of risk on related single premium policies and the cancellations of other single premium policies, partially offset by single premium policy originations during the year ended December 31, 2022.

Accounts payable and accrued expenses were $74.6 million as of December 31, 2022, compared to $72.0 million as of December 31, 2021. The increase was primarily driven by an increase in reinsurance premiums payable and the timing of other contractual payments due, partially offset by a decrease in accrued compensation expenses and premium taxes.

Reserve for insurance claims and claim expenses was $99.8 million as of December 31, 2022, compared to $103.6 million as of December 31, 2021. The decrease was primarily driven by a release of a portion of the reserves we established for anticipated claims payments in prior periods, cure activity and a decline in the total size of our default population. The decrease was partially offset by an increase in the average reserve carried per default. See "Insurance Claims and Claim Expenses," above for further details.

Reinsurance funds withheld, which represents our ceded reinsurance premiums written, less our profit and ceding commission receivables related to the 2016 QSR Transaction was $2.7 million as of December 31, 2022, compared to $5.6 million as of December 31, 2021. The decrease relates to the continued decline in ceded premiums written on single premium policies, due to the end of the reinsurance coverage period for new business under the 2016 QSR Transaction at December 31, 2017. For more information, see, Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 6, Reinsurance."

All unexercised warrants expired at their contractual maturity in April 2022. No warrants or warrant liability remained at December 31, 2022. Warrant liability was $2.4 million at December 31, 2021. For further information regarding the valuation of our warrant liability and its impact on our results of operations and financial position, see Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 4, Fair Value of Financial Instruments."

Net deferred tax liability was $193.9 million as of December 31, 2022, compared to $164.2 million as of December 31, 2021. The increase was primarily due to an increase in the claimed deductibility of our statutory contingency reserve, partially offset by the increase in unrealized losses recorded in other comprehensive income. For further information regarding income taxes and their impact on our results of operations and financial position, see Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 11, Income Taxes."

The following table summarizes our consolidated cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities:

Net cash provided by operating activities was $313.4 million, $325.7 million and $252.6 million for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Cash provided by operating activities declined during the year ended December 31, 2022 primarily due to an increase in the purchase of tax and loss bonds during the period, as well as a decrease in premium written tied to a decline in single premium policies written during the period, both of which were largely offset by a reduction in the technology service costs paid under our long-term IT services agreement with TCS.

Cash provided by operating activities increased during the year ended December 31, 2021 primarily due to growth in premiums written, partially offset by a sequential increase in cash interest expenses and the purchase of tax and loss bonds.

Cash used in investing activities for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020 reflects the purchase of fixed and short-term maturities with cash provided by operating activities and, as available, financing activities, and the reinvestment of coupon payments, maturities and sale proceeds within our investment portfolio. Cash used in investing activities for the year ended December 31, 2020, reflects, in part, the investment of net cash proceeds from the common stock and Notes offerings we completed in June 2020.

81

Cash used in financing activities was $55.8 million and $1.8 million for the years ended December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively, and cash provided by financing activities was $462.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2020. Cash used in financing activities during the year ended December 31, 2022 primarily relates to the repurchase of common stock. Cash used in financing activities during the year ended December 31, 2021 primarily reflects debt issuance costs paid in connection with the 2021 Revolving Credit Facility and taxes paid on the net share settlement of equity awards for certain employees. Cash provided by financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2020 primarily reflects $219.7 million net cash proceeds raised in connection with our 2020 equity offering and $244.4 million net cash proceeds raised in connection with our 2020 Notes offering.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

NMIH serves as the holding company for our insurance subsidiaries and does not have any significant operations of its own. NMIH's principal liquidity demands include funds for (i) payment of certain corporate expenses; (ii) payment of certain reimbursable expenses of its insurance subsidiaries; (iii) payment of the interest related to the Notes and 2021 Revolving Credit Facility; (iv) tax payments to the Internal Revenue Service; (v) capital support for its subsidiaries; (vi) repurchase of its common stock; and (vii) payment of dividends, if any, on its common stock. NMIH is not subject to any limitations on its ability to pay dividends except those generally applicable to corporations that are incorporated in Delaware. Delaware law provides that dividends are only payable out of a corporation's surplus or recent net profits (subject to certain limitations).

As of December 31, 2022, NMIH had $88.9 million of cash and investments. NMIH's principal sources of net cash are dividends from its subsidiaries and investment income. NMIC has the capacity to pay aggregate ordinary dividends of $98.0 million to NMIH during the twelve-month period ending December 31, 2023. NMIH also has access to $250 million of undrawn revolving credit capacity under the 2021 Revolving Credit Facility. See Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 5, Debt".

On February 10, 2022, our Board of Directors approved a $125 million share repurchase program through December 31, 2023, that enables the company to repurchase its common stock. The authorization provides NMIH the flexibility to repurchase stock from time to time in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions, based on market and business conditions, stock price and other factors. During the year ended December 31, 2022, NMIH repurchased 2.9 million shares of common stock pursuant to trading plans under Rule 10b-18 and Rule 10b5-1 of the Exchange Act, at a total cost of $56.6 million, including associated costs. As of December 31, 2022, $68.4 million of repurchase authority remained available under the program.

NMIH has entered into tax and expense-sharing agreements with its subsidiaries which have been approved by the Wisconsin OCI, with such approvals subject to change or revocation at any time. Among such agreements, the Wisconsin OCI has approved the allocation of interest expense on the Notes and the 2021 Revolving Credit Facility to NMIC to the extent proceeds from such offering and facility are distributed to NMIC or used to repay, redeem or otherwise defease amounts raised by NMIC under prior credit arrangements that have previously been distributed to NMIC.

The Notes mature on June 1, 2025 and bear interest at a rate of 7.375%, payable semi-annually on June 1 and December 1. The 2021 Revolving Credit Facility matures on the earlier of (x) November 29, 2025 or (y) if any existing senior secured notes remain outstanding on such date, February 28, 2025, and accrues interest at a variable rate equal to, at our discretion, (i) a Base Rate (as defined in the 2021 Revolving Credit Facility, subject to a floor of 1.00% per annum) plus a margin of 0.375% to 1.875% per annum or (ii) the Adjusted Term SOFR Rate (as defined in the 2021 Revolving Credit Facility) plus a margin of 1.375% to 2.875% per annum, with the margin in each of (i) or (ii) based on our applicable corporate credit rating at the time. Borrowings under the 2021 Revolving Credit Facility may be used for general corporate purposes, including to support the growth of our new business production and operations.

Under the 2021 Revolving Credit Facility, NMIH is required to pay a quarterly commitment fee on the average daily undrawn amount of 0.175% to 0.525%, based on the applicable corporate credit rating at the time. As of December 31, 2022, the applicable commitment fee was 0.30%.

We are subject to certain covenants under the 2021 Revolving Credit Facility. Under the 2021 Revolving Credit Facility, NMIH may not permit (i) our debt to total capitalization ratio to exceed 35% as of the last day of any fiscal quarter, (ii) the statutory capital of NMIC to be less than $1,290,314,825 as of the last day of any fiscal quarter, or (iii) our consolidated net worth to be, as of the last day of any fiscal quarter, less than the sum of (A) $1,047,808,462, plus (B) 50% of our cumulative consolidated net income for each fiscal quarter for which such consolidated net income is positive, plus (C) 50% of any increase in our consolidated net worth after September 30, 2021 resulting from certain issuances of equity by or capital contributions to NMIH or our subsidiaries. In addition, NMIC must remain at all times in compliance with all applicable "financial requirements" imposed pursuant to the PMIERs, subject to any allowed transition period or forbearance thereunder. The credit agreement for

82

2021 Revolving Credit Facility also prohibits, restricts or limits, among other things, NMIH's and its subsidiaries' ability to (i) incur additional indebtedness, (ii) incur liens on their property, (iii) pay dividends or make other distributions, (iv) sell their assets, (v) make certain loans or investments, (vi) merge or consolidate and (vii) enter into transactions with affiliates, in each case subject to certain limitations, exceptions and qualifications as set forth in the credit agreement for 2021 Revolving Credit Facility. We were in compliance with all covenants at December 31, 2022.

NMIC and Re One are subject to certain capital and dividend rules and regulations prescribed by jurisdictions in which they are authorized to operate and the GSEs. Under Wisconsin law, NMIC and Re One may pay dividends up to specified levels (i.e., "ordinary" dividends) with 30 days' prior notice to the Wisconsin OCI. Dividends in larger amounts, or "extraordinary" dividends, are subject to the Wisconsin OCI's prior approval. Under Wisconsin insurance laws, an extraordinary dividend is defined as any payment or distribution that, together with other dividends and distributions made within the preceding twelve months, exceeds the lesser of (i) 10% of the insurer's statutory policyholders' surplus as of the preceding December 31 or (ii) adjusted statutory net income for the twelve-month period ending the preceding December 31. During the year ended December 31, 2022, NMIC paid a $34.9 million ordinary course dividend to NMIH. NMIC has the capacity to pay aggregate ordinary dividends of $98.0 million to NMIH during the twelve-month period ending December 31, 2023.

As an approved insurer under PMIERs, NMIC would generally be subject to additional restrictions on its ability to pay dividends to NMIH if it failed to meet the financial requirements prescribed by PMIERs. Approved insurers that fail to meet the prescribed PMIERs financial requirements are not permitted to pay dividends without prior approval from the GSEs.

NMIH may require liquidity to fund the capital needs of its insurance subsidiaries. NMIC's capital needs depend on many factors including its ability to successfully write new business, establish premium rates at levels sufficient to cover claims and operating costs, access the reinsurance markets and meet minimum required asset thresholds under the PMIERs and minimum state capital requirements (respectively, as defined therein).

As an approved mortgage insurer and Wisconsin-domiciled carrier, NMIC is required to satisfy financial and/or capitalization requirements stipulated by each of the GSEs and the Wisconsin OCI. The financial requirements stipulated by the GSEs are outlined in the PMIERs. Under the PMIERs, NMIC must maintain available assets that are equal to or exceed a minimum risk-based required asset amount, subject to a minimum floor of $400 million. At December 31, 2022, NMIC reported $2,379 million available assets against $1,204 million risk-based required assets for a $1,175 million "excess" funding position.

The risk-based required asset amount under PMIERs is determined at an individual policy-level based on the risk characteristics of each insured loan. Loans with higher risk factors, such as higher LTVs or lower borrower FICO scores, are assessed a higher charge. Non-performing loans that have missed two or more payments are generally assessed a significantly higher charge than performing loans, regardless of the underlying borrower or loan risk profile; however, special consideration is given under PMIERs to loans that are delinquent on homes located in an area declared by FEMA to be a Major Disaster zone eligible for Individual Assistance. In June 2020, the GSEs issued guidance (which was subsequently amended and restated) on the risk-based treatment of loans affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the guidance, non-performing loans that are subject to a forbearance program granted in response to a financial hardship related to COVID-19 will benefit from a permanent 70% risk-based required asset haircut for the duration of the forbearance period and subsequent repayment plan or trial modification period.

NMIC's PMIERs minimum risk-based required asset amount is also adjusted for its reinsurance transactions (as approved by the GSEs). Under NMIC's quota share reinsurance treaties, it receives credit for the PMIERs risk-based required asset amount on ceded RIF. As its gross PMIERs risk-based required asset amount on ceded RIF increases, the PMIERS credit for ceded RIF automatically increases as well (in an unlimited amount). Under NMIC's ILN and XOL Transactions, it generally receives credit for the PMIERs risk-based required asset amount on ceded RIF to the extent such requirement is within the subordinated coverage (excess of loss detachment threshold) afforded by the transaction.

NMIC is also subject to state regulatory minimum capital requirements based on its RIF. Formulations of this minimum capital vary by state, however, the most common measure allows for a maximum ratio of RIF to statutory capital (commonly referred to as RTC) of 25:1. The RTC calculation does not assess a different charge or impose a different threshold RTC limit based on the underlying risk characteristics of the insured portfolio. Non-performing loans are treated the same as performing loans under the RTC framework. As such, the PMIERs generally imposes a stricter financial requirement than the state RTC standard.

As of December 31, 2022, NMIC's performing primary RIF, net of reinsurance, was approximately $25.0 billion. NMIC ceded 100% of its pool RIF pursuant to the 2016 QSR Transaction. Based on NMIC's total statutory capital of $2.2 billion (including contingency reserves) as of December 31, 2022, NMIC's RTC ratio was 11.1:1. Re One has no risk in force remaining and no longer reports a RTC ratio.

83

NMIC's principal sources of liquidity include (i) premium receipts on its insured portfolio and new business production, (ii) interest income on its investment portfolio and principal repayments on maturities therein, and (iii) existing cash and cash equivalent holdings. At December 31, 2022, NMIC had $2.0 billion of cash and investments, including $37 million of cash and equivalents. NMIC's principal liquidity demands include funds for the payment of (i) reimbursable holding company expenses, (ii) premiums ceded under our reinsurance transactions (iii) claims payments, and (iv) taxes as due or otherwise deferred through the purchase of tax and loss bonds. NMIC's cash inflow is generally significantly in excess of its cash outflow in any given period. During the twelve-month period ended December 31, 2022, NMIC generated $272 million of cash flow from operations and received an additional $162 million of cash flow on the maturity, sale and redemption of securities held in its investment portfolio. NMIC is not a party to any contracts (derivative or otherwise) that require it to post an increasing amount of collateral to any counterparty and NMIC's principal liquidity demands (other than claims payments) generally develop along a scheduled path (i.e., are of a contractually predetermined amount and due at a contractually predetermined date). NMIC's only use of cash that develops along an unscheduled path is claims payments. Given the breadth and duration of forbearance programs available to borrowers, separate foreclosure moratoriums that have been enacted at a local, state and federal level, and the general duration of the default to foreclosure to claim cycle, we do not expect NMIC to use a meaningful amount of cash to settle claims in the near-term.

Debt and Financial Strength Ratings

NMIC's financial strength is rated "Baa1" by Moody's and "BBB" by S&P. NMIH's Notes are rated "Ba1" by Moody's and its long-term counter-party credit profile is rated "BB" by S&P. Moody's outlook for both its ratings is stable and S&P's outlook for both its ratings is positive.

Consolidated Investment Portfolio

The primary objectives of our investment activity are to generate investment income and preserve capital, while maintaining sufficient liquidity to cover our operating needs. We aim to achieve diversification by type, quality, maturity, and industry. We have adopted an investment policy that defines, among other things, eligible and ineligible investments; concentration limits for asset types, industry sectors, single issuers, and certain credit ratings; and benchmarks for asset duration.

Our investment portfolio is comprised entirely of fixed maturity instruments. As of December 31, 2022, the fair value of our investment portfolio was $2.1 billion and we held an additional $44 million of cash and equivalents. Pre-tax book yield on the investment portfolio for the year ended December 31, 2022 was 2.1%. Book yield is calculated as period-to-date net investment income divided by the average amortized cost of the investment portfolio. The yield on our investment portfolio is likely to change over time based on movements in interest rates, credit spreads, the duration or mix of our holdings and other factors.

The following tables present a breakdown of our investment portfolio and cash and cash equivalents by investment type and credit rating:

84

(1)    Excluding certain operating cash accounts.

(2)    Includes +/– ratings.

(3)    We held one security with a BB+ rating at December 31, 2022, which is not identifiable in the table due to rounding.

All of our investments are rated by one or more nationally recognized statistical rating organizations. If three or more ratings are available, we assign the middle rating for classification purposes, otherwise we assign the lowest rating.

Investment Securities - Allowance for credit losses

We did not recognize an allowance for credit loss for any security in the investment portfolio as of December 31, 2022 or 2021, and we did not record any provision for credit loss for investment securities during the years ended December 31, 2022 or 2021.

As of December 31, 2022, the investment portfolio had gross unrealized losses of $254.7 million, of which $218.5 million had been in an unrealized loss position for a period of twelve months or longer. As of December 31, 2021, the investment portfolio had gross unrealized losses of $23.2 million, of which $6.5 million had been in an unrealized loss position for a period of twelve months or longer.

The increase in the aggregate size of the unrealized loss position as of December 31, 2022, was primarily driven by fluctuations in interest rates and, to a lesser extent, movements in credit spreads following the purchase date of certain securities. We evaluated the securities in an unrealized loss position as of December 31, 2022, assessing their credit ratings as well as any adverse conditions specifically related to the security. Based upon our estimate of the amount and timing of cash flows to be collected over the remaining life of each instrument, we believe the unrealized losses as of December 31, 2022 are not indicative of the ultimate collectability of the current amortized cost of the securities.

Taxes

We are a U.S. taxpayer and are subject to a statutory U.S. federal corporate income tax rate of 21%. Our holding company files a consolidated U.S. federal and various state income tax returns on behalf of itself and its subsidiaries.

Our effective income tax rate on pre-tax income was 22.4%, 22.1% and 21.3% for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Our effective income tax rate may vary from the statutory tax rate in a given period due to the inclusions and exclusions of income and deductions for tax purposes. Inclusions of tax deductions may include tax benefits from excess share based compensation for vested RSUs and exercised stock options; and exclusions from income may include the fair value fluctuation of our warrant liability.

At December 31, 2022, we had federal net operating loss carryforwards of $1.5 million, which expire in varying amounts in 2030 and 2031, and state net operating loss carryforwards of $133.2 million, which expire in varying amounts from 2031 to 2043. Our ability to utilize our remaining federal net operating loss carryforwards is restricted by Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code (IRC), which imposes annual limitations if there is an "ownership change." As a result of the acquisition of our insurance subsidiaries in 2012, $7.3 million of federal net operating losses were subject to annual limitations of $0.8 million through 2016, $0.5 million in 2017 and $0.3 million, thereafter, through 2028. Our remaining federal net operating loss carryforwards balance is a result of this limitation.

As a mortgage guaranty insurance company, we are eligible to claim a tax deduction for our statutory contingency reserve balance, subject to certain limitations outlined under Section 832(e) of the IRC, and only to the extent we acquire tax and loss bonds in an amount equal to the tax benefit derived from the claimed deduction. As of December 31, 2022, we held $154.4 million of tax and loss bonds in "Prepaid federal income taxes" on our consolidated balance sheets.

85

We record a valuation allowance against the state net operating losses generated by NMIH as NMIH operates at a loss, and we do not expect to utilize such net deferred tax assets in the future. We continue to evaluate the realizability of our state net deferred tax asset position, and our examination of results through December 31, 2022 and review of future expectations support the continued application of a valuation allowance against such state net deferred tax assets.

NMIH and its subsidiaries entered into a tax sharing agreement effective August 23, 2012, which was subsequently amended on September 1, 2016. Under original and amended agreements, each of the parties agreed to file consolidated federal income tax returns for all tax years beginning in and subsequent to 2012, with NMIH as the direct tax filer. The tax liability of each subsidiary that is party to the agreement is limited to the amount of the liability it would incur if it filed separate returns.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) enacted in August 2022 imposed, among other provisions, a 1% excise tax on the net value of stock repurchases made on or after January 1, 2023. As of December 31, 2022, $68.4 million of repurchase authority remained available under the $125 million share repurchase program authorized by our Board of Directors through December 31, 2023. We expect future repurchase amounts will be subject to the IRA excise tax as executed; however, we do not currently expect the excise tax or other provisions of the IRA to have a material impact on our financial condition or result of operations.

Critical Accounting Estimates

Our discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations are based on our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in conformity with GAAP. In preparing our consolidated financial statements, management has made estimates and assumptions, and applied judgments that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting periods. As a result, actual results could differ materially from those estimates. A summary of the accounting policies that management believes are critical to the preparation of our consolidated financial statements is set forth below.

Insurance Premium Revenue Recognition

Premiums for primary mortgage insurance policies may be paid in a single payment at origination (single premium), on a monthly installment basis (monthly premium) or on an annual installment basis (annual premium), with such election and payment type fixed at policy inception. Premiums written at origination for single premium policies are initially deferred as unearned premiums and amortized into earnings over the estimated policy life in accordance with the anticipated expiration of risk. Monthly premiums are recognized as revenue in the month billed and when coverage is effective. Annual premiums are initially deferred and earned on a straight-line basis over the year of coverage. Upon cancellation of a policy, all remaining non-refundable deferred and unearned premium is immediately earned, and any refundable deferred and unearned premium is returned to the policyholder and recorded as a reduction to written premium and unearned premium reserve in the period paid.

Premiums written on pool transactions are earned over the period that coverage is provided.

Reserve for Insurance Claims and Claim Expenses

We establish reserves for claims based on our best estimate of the ultimate claim costs for defaulted loans using the general principles contained in ASC 944, Financial Services - Insurance (ASC 944). A loan is considered to be in "default" as of the payment date at which a borrower has missed the preceding two or more consecutive monthly payments. We establish reserves for loans that have been reported to us in default by servicers, referred to as case reserves, and additional loans that we estimate (based on actuarial review and other factors) to be in default that have not yet been reported to us by servicers, referred to as incurred but not reported (IBNR) reserves. We also establish reserves for claim expenses, which represent the estimated cost of the claim administration process, including legal and other fees, as well as other general expenses of administering the claim settlement process. Claim expense reserves are either allocated (i.e., associated with a specific claim) or unallocated (i.e., not associated with a specific claim).

The establishment of claims and claim expense reserves is subject to inherent uncertainty and requires significant judgment by management. Reserves are established by estimating the number of loans in default that will result in a claim payment, which is referred to as claim frequency, and the amount of claim payment expected to be paid on each such loan in default, which is referred to as claim severity. Claim frequency and severity estimates are established based on historical observed experience regarding certain loan factors, such as age of the default, size of the loan and LTV ratios, and are strongly influenced by assumptions about the path of certain economic factors, such as house price appreciation, trends in unemployment and mortgage rates. We consider the appropriateness of such inputs at each fiscal quarter and conduct an actuarial review annually to evaluate and, if necessary, update these assumptions.

86

It is possible that a relatively small change in our estimates for claim frequency or claim severity could have a material impact on our reserve position and our consolidated results of operations, even in a stable macroeconomic environment. At December 31, 2022, assuming all other estimates remain constant, a one percentage point increase/decrease in our average claim severity factor would cause approximately a +/- $0.8 million change in our reserve position, and a one percentage point increase/decrease in our average claim frequency factor cause approximately a +/- $1.4 million change in our reserve position.

Investments

We have designated our investment portfolio as available-for-sale and report our invested assets at fair value. Unrealized gains and losses in the portfolio, net of related tax expense or benefit, are recognized as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) in shareholders' equity.

We measure fair value and classify invested assets in a hierarchy for disclosure purposes consisting of three "levels" based on the observability of inputs available in the marketplace used to measure fair value. The hierarchy gives the highest priority to unadjusted quoted prices in active markets for identical assets (Level 1 measurements) and the lowest priority to unobservable inputs (Level 3 measurements). See Item 8, Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 4, Fair Value of Financial Instruments."

Purchases and sales of investments are recorded on a trade date basis. Net investment income is recognized when earned, and includes interest and dividend income together with amortization of market premiums and discounts using the effective yield method, and is net of investment management fees and other investment related expenses. For asset-backed securities and any other holdings for which there is a prepayment risk, prepayment assumptions are evaluated and revised as necessary. Any adjustments required due to changes in effective yields and prepayment assumptions are recognized on a prospective basis.

We recognize an impairment on a security through the consolidated statement of operations and comprehensive income if (i) we intend to sell the impaired security; or (ii) it is more likely than not that we will be required to sell the impaired security prior to recovery of its amortized cost basis. If a sale is intended or likely to be required, we write down the amortized cost basis of the security to fair value and recognize the full amount of the impairment through the statement of operations as a "Realized Investment Loss."

For securities in an unrealized loss position where a sale is not intended or likely to be required, we further assess if the decline in fair value below amortized cost is driven by a credit related impairment, considering several items including, but not limited to:

•the severity of the decline in fair value;

•the financial condition of the issuer;

•the failure of the issuer to make scheduled interest or principal payments;

•recent rating downgrades of the applicable security or issuer by one or more nationally recognized statistical ratings organization; and

•other adverse conditions related to or impacting the security or issuer.

To the extent we determine that a security impairment is credit-related, an impairment loss is recognized through the statement of operations as a provision for credit loss expense, and presented as a "Realized Investment Loss." We recognize an allowance for credit losses for the difference between the amortized cost and present value of future expected cash flows, limited by the amount the fair value of the security is below its amortized cost. Subsequent changes (favorable and unfavorable) in credit losses are recognized through the statement of operations as a provision for or a reversal of credit loss expense, and presented as a "Realized Investment Gain or Loss." The portion of a security impairment attributed to other non-credit related factors is recognized in other comprehensive income, net of taxes.

Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs (DAC)

Costs directly associated with the successful acquisition of mortgage insurance policies, consisting of certain selling expenses and other policy issuance and underwriting expenses, are initially deferred and reported as DAC. DAC is reviewed periodically to determine that it does not exceed recoverable amounts. DAC is amortized to expense in proportion to estimated gross profits over the life of the associated policies. We revise the rate of amortization to reflect actual experience and changes to our persistency or loss development assumptions, and may accelerate or slow such rate in future periods as experience and future changes to estimates dictate. During the year ended December 31, 2021, we accelerated the rate and recognized an additional $11.1 million of DAC amortization due to the significant increase in mortgage refinancing activity and material decline in persistency on certain prior book years' insurance in-force experienced during the period. During the year ended December 31,

87

2022, we reverted to a normalized historical amortization rate given the marked improvement in our persistency during the period tied to an increase in interest and mortgage note rates, and slowdown in the pace of refinancing activity during the year.

Premium Deficiency Reserves

We consider whether a premium deficiency exists and premium deficiency reserve is required at each fiscal quarter using best estimate assumptions as of the testing date. Per ASC 944, a premium deficiency reserve shall be recognized if the sum of expected claim costs and claim adjustment expenses, expected dividends to policyholders, unamortized acquisition costs and maintenance costs exceeds future premiums, existing reserves and anticipated investment income. The premium deficiency assessment requires the use of significant judgment and estimates to determine the present value of future premiums, and expected claim costs and expenses. The present value of future premiums relies on, among other things, assumptions about persistency and repayment patterns on the underlying insured loans. The present value of expected claim costs and expenses relies on assumptions about the severity of claims, claim rates on current defaults and expected defaults in future periods. Assumptions used in the premium deficiency calculation can be affected by changes in the macroeconomic environment, including the rate of house price appreciation and prevailing interest rates. Relatively small changes in estimated claim rates or estimated claim amounts could have a significant impact on our premium deficiency analysis. If we determine it is necessary and appropriate to establish a premium deficiency reserve, and actual premium patterns and claims experience differ from the assumptions used to establish the reserve, the difference between the actual results and our estimates would affect our consolidated results of operations in future periods.

88