NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) FY 2024 MD&A
This page reproduces the company's own Item 7 MD&A text from the linked SEC filing. It is filer text, not grepcent analysis, scoring, or investment advice.
Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
The following analysis of our financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements and notes thereto included below in Item 8 of this report and the Risk Factors included above in Part I, Item 1A of this report. In addition, investors should review the “Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements” above.
Overview
We provide private MI through our primary insurance subsidiary, NMIC. NMIC is wholly-owned, domiciled in Wisconsin and principally regulated by the Wisconsin OCI. NMIC is approved as an MI provider by the GSEs and is licensed to write coverage in all 50 states and D.C. Our subsidiary, NMIS, provides outsourced loan review services to mortgage loan originators and our subsidiary, Re One, historically provided reinsurance coverage to NMIC in accordance with certain statutory risk retention requirements. Such requirements have been repealed and the reinsurance coverage provided by Re One to NMIC has been commuted. Re One remains a wholly-owned, licensed insurance subsidiary; however, it does not currently have active insurance exposures.
MI protects lenders and investors from default-related losses on a portion of the unpaid principal balance of a covered mortgage. MI plays a critical role in the U.S. housing market by mitigating mortgage credit risk and facilitating the secondary market sale of high-LTV (i.e., above 80%) residential loans to the GSEs, who are otherwise restricted by their charters from purchasing or guaranteeing high-LTV mortgages that are not covered by certain credit protections. Such credit protection and secondary market sales allow lenders to increase their capacity for mortgage commitments and expand financing access to existing and prospective homeowners.
NMIH, a Delaware corporation, was incorporated in May 2011, and we began start-up operations in 2012 and wrote our first MI policy in 2013. Since formation, we have sought to establish customer relationships with a broad group of mortgage lenders and build a diversified, high-quality insured portfolio. As of December 31, 2024, we had issued master policies with 2,086 customers, including national and regional mortgage banks, money center banks, credit unions, community banks, builder-owned mortgage lenders, internet-sourced lenders and other non-bank lenders. As of December 31, 2024, we had $210.2 billion of primary IIF and $56.1 billion of primary RIF.
We believe that our success in acquiring a large and diverse group of lender customers and growing a portfolio of high-quality IIF traces to our founding principles, whereby we aim to help qualified individuals achieve their homeownership goals, ensure that we remain a strong and credible counter-party, deliver a high-quality customer service experience, establish a differentiated risk management approach that emphasizes the individual underwriting review or validation of the vast majority of the loans we insure, utilizing our proprietary Rate GPS® pricing platform to dynamically evaluate risk and price our policies, and foster a culture of collaboration and excellence that helps us attract and retain experienced industry leaders.
Our strategy is to continue to build on our position in the private MI market, expand our customer base and grow our insured portfolio of high-quality residential loans by focusing on long-term customer relationships, disciplined and proactive risk selection and pricing, fair and transparent claim payment practices, responsive customer service, and financial strength and profitability.
Our common stock trades on the Nasdaq under the symbol “NMIH.” Our headquarters is located in Emeryville, California. As of December 31, 2024, we had 230 employees. Our corporate website is located at www.nationalmi.com. Our website and the information contained on or accessible through our website are not incorporated by reference into this report.
We discuss below our results of operations for the periods presented, as well as the conditions and trends that have impacted or are expected to impact our business, including new insurance writings, the composition of our insurance portfolio and other factors that we expect to impact our results.
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Conditions and Trends Affecting Our Business
Macroeconomic Developments
Macroeconomic factors, including persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, flagging consumer confidence and increasing jobless claims could have a pronounced impact on the housing market, the mortgage insurance industry and our business in future periods. A marked decline in housing demand, a significant and protracted decrease in house prices or a sustained increase in unemployment could reduce the pace of new business activity in the private mortgage insurance market and negatively impact our future NIW volume, or contribute to an increase in our future default and claim experience.
Key Factors Affecting Our Results
Customer Development
We have important relationships with customers across all categories and allocation profiles, including National Accounts and Regional Accounts, and centralized and decentralized lenders. Our sales and marketing efforts are broadly focused on expanding our presence with existing customers and activating new customer relationships. We consider an activation to be the point at which we have signed a Master Policy, established IT connectivity and generated a first application or first dollar of NIW from a customer. During the year ended December 31, 2024, we activated 118 lenders, compared to 70 and 120 for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. We also continued to expand our business with existing customers, deepening our existing relationships and capturing what we believe to be an increasing portion of their annual MI volume. At December 31, 2024, we had issued 2,086 Master Policies and established 1,621 active customer relationships, compared to 1,974 and 1,503, respectively, as of December 31, 2023 and 1,875 and 1,434, respectively, as of December 31, 2022.
New Insurance Written, Insurance-In-Force and Risk-In-Force
NIW is the aggregate unpaid principal balance of mortgages underpinning new policies written during a given period. Our NIW is affected by the overall size of the mortgage origination market and the volume of high-LTV mortgage originations. Our NIW is also affected by the percentage of such high-LTV originations covered by private versus government MI or other alternative credit enhancement structures and our share of the private MI market. NIW, together with persistency, drives our IIF. IIF is the aggregate unpaid principal balance of the mortgages we insure, as reported to us by servicers at a given date, and represents the sum total of NIW from all prior periods less principal payments on insured mortgages and policy cancellations (including for prepayment, nonpayment of premiums, coverage rescission and claim payments). RIF is related to IIF and represents the aggregate amount of coverage we provide on all outstanding policies at a given date. RIF is calculated as the sum total of the coverage percentage of each individual policy in our portfolio applied to the unpaid principal balance of such insured mortgage. RIF is affected by IIF and the LTV profile of our insured mortgages, with lower LTV loans generally having a lower coverage percentage and higher LTV loans having a higher coverage percentage. Gross RIF represents RIF before consideration of reinsurance. Net RIF is gross RIF net of ceded reinsurance.
Net Premiums Written and Net Premiums Earned
We set our premium rates on individual policies based on the risk characteristics of the underlying mortgage loans and borrowers, and in accordance with our filed rates and applicable rating rules. On June 4, 2018, we introduced a proprietary risk-based pricing platform, which we refer to as Rate GPS®. Rate GPS® considers a broad range of individual variables, including property type, type of loan product, borrower credit characteristics, and lender and market factors, and provides us with the ability to set and charge premium rates commensurate with the underlying risk of each loan that we insure. We introduced Rate GPS® in June 2018 to replace our previous rate card pricing system. While most of our new business is priced through Rate GPS®, we also continue to offer a rate card pricing option to a limited number of lender customers who require a rate card for operational reasons. We believe the introduction and utilization of Rate GPS® provides us with a more granular and analytical approach to evaluating and pricing risk, and that this approach enhances our ability to continue building a high-quality mortgage insurance portfolio and delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns.
Premiums are generally fixed for the duration of our coverage of the underlying loans. Net premiums written are equal to gross premiums written minus ceded premiums written under our reinsurance arrangements, less premium refunds and premium write-offs. As a result, net premiums written are generally influenced by:
•NIW;
•premium rates and the mix of premium payment type, which are either single, monthly or annual premiums, as described below;
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•cancellation rates of our insurance policies, which are impacted by payments or prepayments on mortgages, refinancings (which are affected by prevailing mortgage interest rates as compared to interest rates on loans underpinning our in force policies), levels of claim payments and home prices; and
•cession of premiums under third-party reinsurance arrangements.
Premiums are paid either by the borrower (borrower-paid mortgage insurance or BPMI) or the lender (lender-paid mortgage insurance or LPMI) in a single payment at origination (single premium), on a monthly installment basis (monthly premium) or on an annual installment basis (annual premium). Our net premiums written will differ from our net premiums earned due to policy payment type. For single premiums, we receive a single premium payment at origination, which is earned over the estimated life of the policy. Substantially all of our single premium policies in force as of December 31, 2024 were non-refundable under most cancellation scenarios. If non-refundable single premium policies are canceled, we immediately recognize the remaining unearned premium balances as earned premium revenue. Monthly premiums are recognized in the month billed and when the coverage is effective. Annual premiums are earned on a straight-line basis over the year of coverage. Substantially all of our policies provide for either single or monthly premiums.
The percentage of IIF that remains on our books after any twelve-month period is defined as our persistency rate. Because our insurance premiums are earned over the life of a policy, higher persistency rates can have a significant impact on our net premiums earned and profitability. Generally, faster speeds of mortgage prepayment lead to lower persistency. Prepayment speeds and the relative mix of business between single and monthly premium policies also impact our profitability. Our premium rates include certain assumptions regarding repayment or prepayment speeds of the mortgages underlying our policies. Because premiums are paid at origination on single premium policies and our single premium policies are generally non-refundable on cancellation, assuming all other factors remain constant, if single premium loans are prepaid earlier than expected, our profitability on these loans is likely to increase and, if loans are repaid slower than expected, our profitability on these loans is likely to decrease. By contrast, if monthly premium loans are repaid earlier than anticipated, we do not earn any more premium with respect to those loans and, unless we replace the repaid monthly premium loan with a new loan at the same premium rate or higher, our revenue is likely to decline.
Effect of Reinsurance on Our Results
We utilize third-party reinsurance to actively manage our risk, ensure compliance with PMIERs, state regulatory and other applicable capital requirements, and support the growth of our business. We currently have both quota share and excess-of-loss reinsurance agreements in place, which impact our results of operations and regulatory capital and PMIERs asset positions. Under a quota share reinsurance agreement, the reinsurer receives a premium in exchange for covering an agreed-upon portion of incurred losses. Such a quota share arrangement reduces premiums written and earned and also reduces RIF, providing capital relief to the ceding insurance company and reducing incurred claims in accordance with the terms of the reinsurance agreement. In addition, reinsurers typically pay ceding commissions as part of quota share transactions, which offset the ceding company's acquisition and underwriting expenses. Certain quota share agreements include profit commissions that are earned based on loss performance and serve to reduce ceded premiums. Under an excess-of-loss agreement, the ceding insurer is typically responsible for losses up to an agreed-upon threshold and the reinsurer then provides coverage in excess of such threshold up to a maximum agreed-upon limit. We expect to continue to evaluate reinsurance opportunities in the normal course of business.
Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance
Insurance-Linked Notes
NMIC is party to reinsurance agreements with the Oaktown Re Vehicles that provide it with aggregate excess-of-loss reinsurance coverage on defined portfolios of mortgage insurance policies. Under each agreement, NMIC retains a first layer of aggregate loss exposure on covered policies and the respective Oaktown Re Vehicle then provides second layer loss protection up to a defined reinsurance coverage amount. NMIC then retains losses in excess of the respective reinsurance coverage amounts.
The respective reinsurance coverage amounts provided by the Oaktown Re Vehicles decrease over a 12.5-year period as the underlying insured mortgages are amortized or repaid, and/or the mortgage insurance coverage is canceled. As the reinsurance coverage decreases, a prescribed amount of collateral held in trust by the Oaktown Re Vehicles is distributed to ILN Transaction noteholders as amortization of the outstanding insurance-linked note principal balances. The outstanding reinsurance coverage amounts stop amortizing, and the distribution of collateral assets to ILN Transaction noteholders and amortization of insurance-linked note principal is suspended if certain credit enhancement or delinquency thresholds, as defined in each agreement, are triggered (each, a Lock-Out Event).
NMIC holds optional termination rights under each ILN Transaction, including, among others, an optional call feature
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which provides NMIC the discretion to terminate the transaction on or after a prescribed date, and a clean-up call if the outstanding reinsurance coverage amount amortizes to 10% or less of the reinsurance coverage amount at inception or if NMIC reasonably determines that changes to GSE or rating agency asset requirements would cause a material and adverse effect on the capital treatment afforded to NMIC under a given agreement. In addition, there are certain events that trigger mandatory termination of an agreement, including NMIC's failure to pay premiums or consent to reductions in a trust account to make principal payments to noteholders, among others.
Effective July 25, 2024 and December 27, 2024, NMIC exercised its optional termination rights to terminate its previously outstanding reinsurance agreements with and associated insurance-linked-notes issued by Oaktown Re III Ltd. and by Oaktown Re V Ltd., respectively. In connection with the terminations, NMIC's excess of loss reinsurance agreements with Oaktown Re III Ltd. and Oaktown Re V Ltd. were commuted and the insurance-linked notes issued by Oaktown Re III Ltd. and Oaktown Re V Ltd. were redeemed in full with a distribution of remaining collateral assets.
The following table presents the inception date, covered production period, initial and current reinsurance coverage amount, and initial and current first layer retained aggregate loss under each outstanding ILN Transaction. Current amounts are presented as of December 31, 2024.
| ($ values in thousands) | Inception Date | Covered Production | Initial Reinsurance Coverage | Current Reinsurance Coverage | Initial First Layer Retained Loss | Current First Layer Retained Loss (1) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-1 ILN Transaction | April 27, 2021 | 10/1/2020 – 3/31/2021 (2) | $367,238 | $145,697 | $163,708 | $162,984 | ||||||
| 2021-2 ILN Transaction | October 26, 2021 | 4/1/2021 – 9/30/2021 (3) | 363,596 | 240,288 | 146,229 | 145,235 |
(1) NMIC applies claims paid on covered policies against its first layer aggregate retained loss exposure and cedes reserves for incurred claims and claim expenses to each applicable ILN Transaction and recognizes a reinsurance recoverable if such incurred claims and claim expenses exceed its current first layer retained loss.
(2) Approximately 1% of the production covered by the 2021-1 ILN Transaction has coverage reporting dates between July 1, 2019 and September 30, 2020.
(3) Approximately 2% of the production covered by the 2021-2 ILN Transaction has coverage reporting dates between July 1, 2019 and March 31, 2021.
Traditional Reinsurance
NMIC is party to six excess-of-loss reinsurance agreements with broad panels of third-party reinsurers – the 2022-1 XOL Transaction, effective April 1, 2022, the 2022-2 XOL Transaction, effective July 1, 2022, the 2022-3 XOL Transaction, effective October 1, 2022, the 2023-1 XOL Transaction, effective January 1, 2023, the 2023-2 XOL Transaction, effective July 1, 2023, and the 2024 XOL Transaction, effective January 1, 2024 – which we refer to collectively as the XOL Transactions. Each XOL Transaction provides NMIC with aggregate excess-of-loss reinsurance coverage on a defined portfolio of mortgage insurance policies. Under each agreement, NMIC retains a first layer of aggregate loss exposure on covered policies and the reinsurers then provide second layer loss protection up to a defined reinsurance coverage amount. The reinsurance coverage amount of each XOL Transaction is set to approximate the PMIERs minimum required assets of its reference pool and decreases from its peak over a ten-year period in the event the PMIERs minimum required assets of the pool declines. NMIC retains losses in excess of the outstanding reinsurance coverage amount.
NMIC holds optional termination rights which provide it the discretion to terminate each XOL Transaction on or after a specified date. NMIC may also elect to terminate the XOL Transactions at any point if the outstanding reinsurance coverage amount amortizes to 10% or less of the reinsurance coverage amount provided at inception, or if it determines that it will no longer be able to take full PMIERs asset credit for the coverage. Additionally, under the terms of the treaties, NMIC may selectively terminate its engagement with individual reinsurers under certain circumstances. Such selective termination rights arise when, among other reasons, a reinsurer experiences a deterioration in its capital position below a prescribed threshold, and/or a reinsurer breaches (and fails to cure) its collateral posting obligation.
Each of the third-party reinsurance providers that is party to the XOL Transactions has an insurer financial strength rating of A- or better by S&P, A.M. Best or both.
The following table presents the inception date, covered production period, initial and current reinsurance coverage amount, and initial and current first layer retained aggregate loss under each outstanding XOL Transaction. Current amounts are presented as of December 31, 2024.
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| ($ values in thousands) | Inception Date | Covered Production | Initial Reinsurance Coverage | Current Reinsurance Coverage | Initial First Layer Retained Loss | Current First Layer Retained Loss (1) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-1 XOL Transaction | April 1, 2022 | 10/1/2021 – 3/31/2022 (2) | $289,741 | $192,516 | $133,366 | $132,115 | ||||||||||
| 2022-2 XOL Transaction | July 1, 2022 | 4/1/2022 – 6/30/2022 (3) | 154,306 | 129,157 | 78,906 | 77,144 | ||||||||||
| 2022-3 XOL Transaction | October 1, 2022 | 7/1/2022 – 9/30/2022 | 96,779 | 83,634 | 106,265 | 105,417 | ||||||||||
| 2023-1 XOL Transaction | January 1, 2023 | 10/1/2022 – 6/30/2023 | 89,864 | 82,315 | 146,513 | 145,716 | ||||||||||
| 2023-2 XOL Transaction | July 1, 2023 | 7/1/2023 – 12/31/2023 | 100,777 | 95,304 | 136,875 | 136,715 | ||||||||||
| 2024 XOL Transaction (4) | January 1, 2024 | 1/1/2024 – 12/31/2024 | 162,500 | 162,500 | 312,172 | 312,172 |
(1) NMIC applies claims paid on covered policies against its first layer aggregate retained loss exposure and cedes reserves for incurred claims and claim expenses to each applicable XOL Transaction and recognizes a reinsurance recoverable if such incurred claims and claim expenses exceed its current first layer retained loss.
(2) Approximately 1% of the production covered by the 2022-1 XOL Transaction has coverage reporting dates between October 21, 2019 and September 30, 2021.
(3) Approximately 1% of the production covered by the 2022-2 XOL Transaction has coverage reporting dates between January 4, 2021 and March 31, 2022.
(4) The 2024 XOL Transaction provides coverage for production generated between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024. The current reinsurance coverage and current first layer retained loss will decrease in future periods to the extent the PMIERs minimum required assets of the covered pool declines.
In October 2024, NMIC entered into two sequential excess-of-loss reinsurance treaties that will provide aggregate coverage for mortgage insurance policies to be written in 2025 and 2026 (the 2025 XOL Transaction and 2026 XOL Transaction, respectively). Under the terms of each agreement, NMIC will retain a first layer of aggregate loss exposure on covered policies and its reinsurance counterparties will then provide second layer loss protection up to a defined reinsurance coverage amount (of $283.8 million for the 2025 XOL Transaction and $164.2 million for the 2026 XOL Transaction). NMIC retains losses in excess of the respective reinsurance coverage amounts.
Quota Share Reinsurance
NMIC is party to eight quota share reinsurance treaties – the 2016 QSR Transaction, effective September 1, 2016 and as modified April 1, 2019, the 2018 QSR Transaction, effective January 1, 2018, the 2020 QSR Transaction, effective April 1, 2020 and as amended January 1, 2024, the 2021 QSR Transaction, effective January 1, 2021, the 2022 QSR Transaction, effective October 1, 2021, the 2022 Seasoned QSR Transaction, effective July 1, 2022, the 2023 QSR Transaction, effective January 1, 2023 and the 2024 QSR Transaction, effective January 1, 2024 – which we refer to collectively as the QSR Transactions. Under each of the QSR Transactions, NMIC cedes a proportional share of its risk on eligible policies to panels of third-party reinsurance providers. Each of the third-party reinsurance providers that is party to the QSR Transactions has an insurer financial strength rating of A- or better by S&P, A.M. Best or both.
Under the terms of the 2016 QSR Transaction, NMIC cedes premiums written related to 20.5% of the risk on eligible primary policies written for all periods through December 31, 2017 in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claim expenses on covered policies, a 20% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 60% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims.
Under the terms of the 2018 QSR Transaction, NMIC cedes premiums earned related to 25% of the risk on eligible policies written in 2018 and 20% of the risk on eligible policies written in 2019, in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claim expenses on covered policies, a 20% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 61% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims.
Under the terms of the 2020 QSR Transaction, NMIC cedes premiums earned related to 21% of the risk on eligible policies written between April 1, 2020 and December 31, 2020, in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claim expenses on covered policies, a 36% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 50% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims.
Under the terms of the 2021 QSR Transaction, NMIC cedes premiums earned related to 22.5% of the risk on eligible policies written in 2021 (subject to an aggregate risk written limit which was exhausted on October 30, 2021), in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claim expenses on covered policies, a 20% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 57.5% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims.
Under the terms of the 2022 QSR Transaction, NMIC cedes premiums earned related to 20% of the risk on eligible policies written between October 30, 2021 and December 31, 2022, in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claim
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expenses on covered policies, a 20% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 62% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims.
Under the terms of the 2022 Seasoned QSR Transaction, NMIC cedes premiums earned related to 95% of the net risk on eligible policies primarily for a seasoned pool of mortgage insurance policies originated between January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2016 and July 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020, that had previously been covered under the retired Oaktown Re Ltd. and Oaktown Re IV Ltd. reinsurance transactions, after the consideration of coverage provided by other QSR Transactions, in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claim expenses on covered policies, a 35% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 55% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims.
Under the terms of the 2023 QSR Transaction, NMIC cedes premiums earned related to 20% of the risk on eligible policies written in 2023, in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claim expenses on covered policies, a 20% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 62% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims.
Under the terms of the 2024 QSR Transaction, NMIC cedes premiums earned related to 20% of the risk on eligible policies written in 2024, in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claim expenses on covered policies, a 20% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 56% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims.
NMIC may terminate any or all of the QSR Transactions without penalty if, due to a change in PMIERs requirements, it is no longer able to take full PMIERs asset credit for the RIF ceded under the respective agreements. Additionally, under the terms of the QSR Transactions, NMIC may elect to selectively terminate its engagement with individual reinsurers on a run-off basis (i.e., reinsurers continue providing coverage on all risk ceded prior to the termination date, with no new cessions going forward) or cut-off basis (i.e., the reinsurance arrangement is completely terminated with NMIC recapturing all previously ceded risk) under certain circumstances. Such selective termination rights arise when, among other reasons, a reinsurer experiences a deterioration in its capital position below a prescribed threshold and/or a reinsurer breaches (and fails to cure) its collateral posting obligations under the relevant agreement.
Effective January 1, 2025, NMIC terminated its engagement with one reinsurer under the 2016, 2018 and 2021 QSR Transactions by mutual agreement on a cut-off basis with no termination fees. Upon termination, NMIC recaptured approximately $100 million of previously ceded primary RIF. NMIC will stop ceding new premiums with respect to the recaptured risk and ceded premiums under each agreement will decrease by less than 1% in future periods.
In October 2024, NMIC entered into three sequential quota share reinsurance treaties that will provide coverage for mortgage insurance policies to be written in 2025, 2026 and 2027 (the 2025 QSR Transaction, 2026 QSR Transaction and 2027 QSR Transaction, respectively). Under the terms of the 2025 and 2026 QSR Transactions, NMIC will cede premiums earned related to 20% of the risk on eligible policies written between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claims expenses on covered policies, a 20% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 62% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims. Under the terms of the 2027 QSR Transaction, NMIC will cede premiums earned related to 12% of the risk on eligible policies written between January 1, 2027 and December 31, 2027, in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claims expenses on covered policies, a 20% ceding commission, and a profit commission of up to 61% that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims.
See Item 8, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 6, Reinsurance” for further discussion of these third-party reinsurance arrangements.
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Portfolio Data
The following table presents NIW and IIF as of the dates and for the periods indicated. Unless otherwise noted, the tables below do not include the effects of our third-party reinsurance arrangements described above.
| NIW and IIF | As of and for the years ended December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| NIW | IIF | NIW | IIF | NIW | IIF | |||||||||||||||||
| (In Millions) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Monthly | $ | 45,129 | $ | 192,228 | $ | 39,468 | $ | 177,764 | $ | 55,916 | $ | 163,903 | ||||||||||
| Single | 915 | 17,955 | 1,005 | 19,265 | 2,818 | 20,065 | ||||||||||||||||
| Primary | 46,044 | 210,183 | 40,473 | 197,029 | 58,734 | 183,968 | ||||||||||||||||
| Pool | — | — | — | — | — | 1,049 | ||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 46,044 | $ | 210,183 | $ | 40,473 | $ | 197,029 | $ | 58,734 | $ | 185,017 |
NIW for the year ended December 31, 2024 increased 14% compared to the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily due to growth in our customer franchise and market presence tied to the increased penetration of existing customer accounts and new customer activations. NIW for the year ended December 31, 2023 decreased 31% compared to the year ended December 31, 2022, primarily due to a decline in the size of the total mortgage insurance market.
Primary IIF increased 7% at December 31, 2024 compared to December 31, 2023, which in turn grew 6% compared to December 31, 2022, primarily due to the NIW generated between such measurement dates, partially offset by the run-off of in-force policies.
Our persistency rate was 85%, 86% and 84% at December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022, respectively. Persistency remains historically high due to a continued slowdown in the pace of mortgage refinancing activity tied to the prevailing interest and mortgage rate environment.
The following table presents net premiums written and earned for the periods indicated:
| Net premiums written and earned | For the years ended December 31, | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
| (In Thousands) | ||||||||||
| Net premiums written | $ | 537,953 | $ | 480,540 | $ | 460,246 | ||||
| Net premiums earned | 564,688 | 510,768 | 475,266 |
Net premiums written increased 12% and 4%, respectively, and net premiums earned increased 11% and 7%, respectively, during the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, primarily driven by growth in our monthly IIF and monthly pay premiums receipts. The sequential increase in net premiums earned during each successive year was partially offset by a decline in the contribution from single premium policy cancellations period-to-period.
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Portfolio Statistics
Unless otherwise noted, the portfolio statistics tables presented below do not include the effects of our third-party reinsurance arrangements described above. The table below highlights trends in our primary portfolio as of the dates and for the periods indicated.
| Primary portfolio trends | As of and for the years ended December 31, | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
| ($ Values In Millions, except as noted below) | ||||||||||
| New insurance written | $ | 46,044 | $ | 40,473 | $ | 58,734 | ||||
| Percentage of monthly premium | 98 | % | 98 | % | 95 | % | ||||
| Percentage of single premium | 2 | % | 2 | % | 5 | % | ||||
| New risk written | $ | 12,200 | $ | 10,661 | $ | 15,520 | ||||
| Insurance-in-force (1) | $ | 210,183 | $ | 197,029 | $ | 183,968 | ||||
| Percentage of monthly premium | 91 | % | 90 | % | 89 | % | ||||
| Percentage of single premium | 9 | % | 10 | % | 11 | % | ||||
| Risk-in-force (1) | $ | 56,113 | $ | 51,796 | $ | 47,648 | ||||
| Policies in force (count) (1) | 659,567 | 629,690 | 594,142 | |||||||
| Average loan size ($ value in thousands) (1) | $ | 319 | $ | 313 | $ | 310 | ||||
| Coverage percentage (2) | 27 | % | 26 | % | 26 | % | ||||
| Loans in default (count) (1) | 6,642 | 5,099 | 4,449 | |||||||
| Default rate (1) | 1.01 | % | 0.81 | % | 0.75 | % | ||||
| Risk-in-force on defaulted loans (1) | $ | 545 | $ | 408 | $ | 323 | ||||
| Average net premium yield (3) | 0.28 | % | 0.27 | % | 0.28 | % | ||||
| Earnings from cancellations | $ | 3 | $ | 4 | $ | 8 | ||||
| Annual persistency (4) | 85 | % | 86 | % | 84 | % | ||||
| Quarterly run-off (5) | 4.5 | % | 3.4 | % | 3.3 | % |
(1) Reported as of the end of the period.
(2) Calculated as end of period RIF divided by end of period IIF.
(3) Calculated as net premiums earned divided by average primary IIF for the period.
(4) Defined as the percentage of IIF that remains on our books after a given twelve-month period.
(5) Defined as the percentage of IIF that is no longer on our books after a given three-month period. Figures shown represent fourth quarter values for the respective years.
The table below presents a summary of the change in total primary IIF for the dates and periods indicated.
| Primary IIF | As of and for the years ended December 31, | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||||||
| (In Millions) | ||||||||||||||
| IIF, beginning of period | $ | 197,029 | $ | 183,968 | $ | 152,343 | ||||||||
| NIW | 46,044 | 40,473 | 58,734 | |||||||||||
| Cancellations, principal repayments and other reductions | (32,890) | (27,412) | (27,109) | |||||||||||
| IIF, end of period | $ | 210,183 | $ | 197,029 | $ | 183,968 |
We consider a “book” to be a collective pool of policies insured during a particular period, normally a calendar year. In general, the majority of underwriting profit, calculated as earned premium revenue minus claims and underwriting and operating expenses, generated by a particular book year emerges in the years immediately following origination. This pattern generally occurs because relatively few of the claims that a book will ultimately experience typically occur in the first few years following origination, when premium revenue is highest, while subsequent years are affected by declining premium revenues, as the number of insured loans decreases (primarily due to loan prepayments), and by increasing losses.
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The table below presents a summary of our primary IIF and RIF by book year as of the dates indicated.
| Primary IIF and RIF | As of December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| IIF | RIF | IIF | RIF | IIF | RIF | |||||||||||||||||
| Book year | (In Millions) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | $ | 43,560 | $ | 11,552 | $ | — | $ | — | $ | — | $ | — | ||||||||||
| 2023 | 34,284 | 9,047 | 38,586 | 10,162 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 47,598 | 12,703 | 52,783 | 14,003 | 56,579 | 14,965 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 50,699 | 13,634 | 62,051 | 16,190 | 72,766 | 18,642 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2020 | 21,145 | 5,795 | 27,428 | 7,210 | 34,656 | 8,860 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2019 and before | 12,897 | 3,382 | 16,181 | 4,231 | 19,967 | 5,181 | ||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 210,183 | $ | 56,113 | $ | 197,029 | $ | 51,796 | $ | 183,968 | $ | 47,648 |
We utilize certain risk principles that form the basis of how we underwrite and originate NIW. We have established prudential underwriting standards and loan-level eligibility matrices which prescribe the maximum LTV, minimum borrower FICO score, maximum borrower DTI ratio, maximum loan size, property type, loan type, loan term and occupancy status of loans that we will insure and memorialized these standards and eligibility matrices in our Underwriting Guideline Manual that is publicly available on our website. Our underwriting standards and eligibility criteria are designed to limit the layering of risk in a single insurance policy. “Layered risk” refers to the accumulation of borrower, loan and property risk. For example, we have higher credit score and lower maximum allowed LTV requirements for investor-owned properties, compared to owner-occupied properties. We monitor the concentrations of various risk attributes in our insurance portfolio, which may change over time, in part, as a result of regional conditions or public policy shifts.
The tables below present our primary NIW by FICO, LTV and purchase/refinance mix for the periods indicated. We calculate the LTV of a loan as the percentage of the original loan amount to the original purchase value of the property securing the loan.
| Primary NIW by FICO | For the years ended December 31, | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||||||
| (In Millions) | ||||||||||||||
| = 760 | $ | 24,808 | $ | 22,995 | $ | 26,751 | ||||||||
| 740-759 | 8,098 | 6,769 | 10,853 | |||||||||||
| 720-739 | 5,907 | 5,484 | 8,308 | |||||||||||
| 700-719 | 3,794 | 2,816 | 6,452 | |||||||||||
| 680-699 | 2,392 | 1,946 | 4,636 | |||||||||||
| =679 | 1,045 | 463 | 1,734 | |||||||||||
| Total | $ | 46,044 | $ | 40,473 | $ | 58,734 | ||||||||
| Weighted average FICO | 757 | 760 | 750 |
| Primary NIW by LTV | For the years ended December 31, | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||||||
| (In Millions) | ||||||||||||||
| 95.01% and above | $ | 5,908 | $ | 3,713 | $ | 5,199 | ||||||||
| 90.01% to 95.00% | 21,149 | 18,929 | 30,031 | |||||||||||
| 85.01% to 90.00% | 13,994 | 13,597 | 16,637 | |||||||||||
| 85.00% and below | 4,993 | 4,234 | 6,867 | |||||||||||
| Total | $ | 46,044 | $ | 40,473 | $ | 58,734 | ||||||||
| Weighted average LTV | 92.3 | % | 92.1 | % | 92.2 | % |
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| Primary NIW by purchase/refinance mix | For the years ended December 31, | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||||||
| (In Millions) | ||||||||||||||
| Purchase | $ | 43,921 | $ | 39,629 | $ | 57,045 | ||||||||
| Refinance | 2,123 | 844 | 1,689 | |||||||||||
| Total | $ | 46,044 | $ | 40,473 | $ | 58,734 |
The tables below present our total primary IIF and RIF by FICO and LTV, and total primary RIF by loan type as of the dates indicated.
| Primary IIF by FICO | As of December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ($ Values In Millions) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| = 760 | $ | 105,315 | 50 | % | $ | 98,034 | 50 | % | $ | 89,554 | 48 | % | ||||||||||
| 740-759 | 37,321 | 18 | 34,829 | 18 | 32,691 | 18 | ||||||||||||||||
| 720-739 | 29,343 | 14 | 27,755 | 14 | 25,910 | 14 | ||||||||||||||||
| 700-719 | 19,766 | 9 | 18,734 | 9 | 18,245 | 10 | ||||||||||||||||
| 680-699 | 13,374 | 6 | 12,867 | 7 | 12,480 | 7 | ||||||||||||||||
| =679 | 5,064 | 3 | 4,810 | 2 | 5,088 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 210,183 | 100 | % | $ | 197,029 | 100 | % | $ | 183,968 | 100 | % |
| Primary RIF by FICO | As of December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ($ Values In Millions) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| = 760 | $ | 27,883 | 50 | % | $ | 25,523 | 49 | % | $ | 22,834 | 48 | % | ||||||||||
| 740-759 | 10,006 | 18 | 9,207 | 18 | 8,556 | 18 | ||||||||||||||||
| 720-739 | 7,926 | 14 | 7,387 | 14 | 6,807 | 14 | ||||||||||||||||
| 700-719 | 5,383 | 10 | 5,021 | 10 | 4,859 | 10 | ||||||||||||||||
| 680-699 | 3,615 | 6 | 3,433 | 7 | 3,305 | 7 | ||||||||||||||||
| =679 | 1,300 | 2 | 1,225 | 2 | 1,287 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 56,113 | 100 | % | $ | 51,796 | 100 | % | $ | 47,648 | 100 | % |
| Primary IIF by LTV | As of December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ($ Values In Millions) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 95.01% and above | $ | 23,555 | 11 | % | $ | 19,609 | 10 | % | $ | 17,577 | 10 | % | ||||||||||
| 90.01% to 95.00% | 103,472 | 49 | 95,415 | 48 | 87,354 | 47 | ||||||||||||||||
| 85.01% to 90.00% | 64,290 | 31 | 60,348 | 31 | 55,075 | 30 | ||||||||||||||||
| 85.00% and below | 18,866 | 9 | 21,657 | 11 | 23,962 | 13 | ||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 210,183 | 100 | % | $ | 197,029 | 100 | % | $ | 183,968 | 100 | % |
| Primary RIF by LTV | As of December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ($ Values In Millions) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 95.01% and above | $ | 7,345 | 13 | % | $ | 6,062 | 12 | % | $ | 5,408 | 11 | % | ||||||||||
| 90.01% to 95.00% | 30,563 | 55 | 28,184 | 54 | 25,797 | 54 | ||||||||||||||||
| 85.01% to 90.00% | 15,956 | 28 | 14,961 | 29 | 13,584 | 29 | ||||||||||||||||
| 85.00% and below | 2,249 | 4 | 2,589 | 5 | 2,859 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 56,113 | 100 | % | $ | 51,796 | 100 | % | $ | 47,648 | 100 | % |
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| Primary RIF by Loan Type | As of December 31, | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||
| Fixed | 98 | % | 98 | % | 99 | % | ||
| Adjustable rate mortgages: | ||||||||
| Less than five years | — | — | — | |||||
| Five years and longer | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Total | 100 | % | 100 | % | 100 | % |
The table below presents selected primary portfolio statistics, by book year, as of December 31, 2024.
| As of December 31, 2024 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book year | Original Insurance Written | Remaining Insurance in Force | % Remaining of Original Insurance | Policies Ever in Force | Number of Policies in Force | Number of Loans in Default | # of Claims Paid | Incurred Loss Ratio (Inception to Date) (1) | Cumulative Default Rate (2) | Current Default Rate (3) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| ($ Values In Millions) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 and prior | $ | 16,035 | $ | 885 | 6 | % | 67,989 | 4,903 | 99 | 208 | 2.7 | % | 0.5 | % | 2.0 | % | |||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 21,187 | 1,498 | 7 | % | 83,626 | 8,076 | 158 | 187 | 1.7 | % | 0.4 | % | 2.0 | % | |||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21,582 | 1,867 | 9 | % | 85,897 | 10,577 | 267 | 184 | 1.9 | % | 0.5 | % | 2.5 | % | |||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 27,295 | 2,433 | 9 | % | 104,043 | 13,152 | 420 | 184 | 2.5 | % | 0.6 | % | 3.2 | % | |||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 45,141 | 6,214 | 14 | % | 148,423 | 27,442 | 511 | 97 | 2.0 | % | 0.4 | % | 1.9 | % | |||||||||||||||||
| 2020 | 62,702 | 21,145 | 34 | % | 186,174 | 73,926 | 598 | 51 | 1.4 | % | 0.3 | % | 0.8 | % | |||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 85,574 | 50,699 | 59 | % | 257,972 | 167,892 | 1,679 | 74 | 3.5 | % | 0.7 | % | 1.0 | % | |||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 58,734 | 47,598 | 81 | % | 163,281 | 138,915 | 2,002 | 68 | 17.9 | % | 1.3 | % | 1.4 | % | |||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 40,473 | 34,284 | 85 | % | 111,994 | 98,711 | 725 | 10 | 14.4 | % | 0.7 | % | 0.7 | % | |||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 46,044 | 43,560 | 95 | % | 120,747 | 115,973 | 183 | — | 6.2 | % | 0.2 | % | 0.2 | % | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 424,767 | $ | 210,183 | 1,330,146 | 659,567 | 6,642 | 1,063 |
(1) Calculated as total claims incurred (paid and reserved) divided by cumulative premiums earned, net of reinsurance.
(2) Calculated as the sum of the number of claims paid ever to date and number of loans in default divided by policies ever in force.
(3) Calculated as the number of loans in default divided by number of policies in force.
Geographic Dispersion
The following table shows the distribution by state of our primary RIF as of the dates indicated. The distribution of our primary RIF as of December 31, 2024 is not necessarily representative of the geographic distribution we expect in the future.
| Top 10 primary RIF by state | As of December 31, | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||
| California | 10.1 | % | 10.2 | % | 10.6 | % | ||
| Texas | 8.6 | 8.7 | 8.7 | |||||
| Florida | 7.3 | 7.6 | 8.2 | |||||
| Georgia | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | |||||
| Washington | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | |||||
| Illinois | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.9 | |||||
| Virginia | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.1 | |||||
| Pennsylvania | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | |||||
| Ohio | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | |||||
| North Carolina | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | |||||
| Total | 51.4 | % | 51.9 | % | 52.6 | % |
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Insurance Claims and Claim Expenses
Insurance claims and claim expenses incurred represent estimated future payments on newly defaulted insured loans and any change in our claim estimates for previously existing defaults. Claims incurred are generally affected by a variety of factors, including:
•future macroeconomic factors, including national and regional unemployment rates, which affect the likelihood that borrowers may default on their loans and probability of claims, and interest rates, which tend to drive increased persistency as they rise, thereby extending the average life of our insured portfolio and increasing expected future claims and decrease persistency as they fall, thereby shortening the average life of our insured portfolio and moderating future expected claims;
•changes in housing values, as such changes affect loss mitigation opportunities (available to us and a borrower) on loans in default, as well as borrowers' behaviors and willingness to default if the values of their homes are below or perceived to be below the balance of their mortgage;
•borrowers' FICO scores, with lower FICO scores tending to have a higher probability of claims;
•borrowers' DTI ratios, with higher DTI ratios tending to have a higher probability of claims;
•LTV ratios, with higher average LTV ratios tending to increase the probability of claims;
•the size of loans insured, with higher loan amounts tending to result in higher incurred claim amounts than smaller loan amounts;
•the percentage of coverage on insured loans, with higher percentages of insurance coverage tending to result in higher incurred claim amounts than lower percentages of insurance coverage;
•other borrower, property-type and loan level risk characteristics, such as cash-out refinancings, second homes or investment properties; and
•the level and amount of reinsurance coverage maintained with third parties.
Reserves for claims and claim expenses are established for mortgage loans that are in default. A loan is considered to be in default as of the payment date at which a borrower has missed the preceding two or more consecutive monthly payments. We establish reserves for loans that have been reported to us in default by servicers, referred to as case reserves, and additional loans that we estimate (based on actuarial review and other factors) to be in default that have not yet been reported to us by servicers, referred to as incurred but not reported (IBNR). We also establish reserves for claim expenses, which represent the estimated cost of the claim administration process, including legal and other fees and other general expenses of administering the claim settlement process. Reserves are not established for future claims on insured loans which are not currently reported or which we estimate are not currently in default.
Reserves are established by estimating the number of loans in default that will result in a claim payment, which is referred to as claim frequency, and the amount of the claim payment expected to be paid on each such loan in default, which is referred to as claim severity. Claim frequency and severity estimates are established based on historical observed experience regarding certain loan factors, such as age of the default, cure rates, size of the loan and estimated change in property value. Reserves are released the month in which a loan in default is brought current by the borrower, which is referred to as a cure. Adjustments to reserve estimates are reflected in the period in which the adjustment is made. Reserves are also ceded to reinsurers under the QSR Transactions, ILN Transactions and XOL Transactions as applicable under each treaty. We have not yet ceded reserves under any of the ILN Transactions or XOL Transactions as incurred claims and claim expenses on each respective reference pool remain within our retained coverage layer for each transaction.
Our reserve setting process considers the beneficial impact of forbearance, foreclosure moratorium and other assistance programs that may be made available to certain defaulted borrowers. The effectiveness of forbearance and other such assistance programs can be further enhanced by the availability of various repayment and loan modification options which typically allow borrowers to amortize or, in certain instances, outright defer payments otherwise missed during a period of dislocation over an extended length of time. We generally observe that forbearance, repayment and modification, and other assistance programs are an effective tool to bridge dislocated borrowers from a time of acute stress to a future date when they can resume timely payment of their mortgage obligations, and note higher cure rates on defaults benefitting from broad-based assistance programs than would otherwise be expected on similarly situated loans that did not benefit from such programs.
The actual claims we incur as our portfolio matures are difficult to predict and depend on the specific characteristics of our current in-force book (including the credit score and DTI ratio of the borrower, the LTV ratio of the mortgage and geographic
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concentrations, among others), as well as the risk profile of new business we write in the future. In addition, claims experience will be affected by macroeconomic factors such as housing prices, interest rates, unemployment rates and other events, such as natural disasters or global pandemics, and any federal, state or local governmental response thereto.
Macroeconomic factors, including persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, flagging consumer confidence and increasing jobless claims could have a pronounced impact on the housing market, the mortgage insurance industry and our business in future periods. A marked decline in housing demand, a significant and protracted decrease in house prices, or a sustained increase in unemployment could contribute to an increase in our future default and claims experience.
The following table provides a reconciliation of the beginning and ending gross reserve balances for primary insurance claims and claim expenses:
| For the years ended December 31, | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
| (In Thousands) | ||||||||||
| Beginning balance | $ | 123,974 | $ | 99,836 | $ | 103,551 | ||||
| Less reinsurance recoverables (1) | (27,514) | (21,587) | (20,320) | |||||||
| Beginning balance, net of reinsurance recoverables | 96,460 | 78,249 | 83,231 | |||||||
| Add claims incurred: | ||||||||||
| Claims and claim expenses incurred: | ||||||||||
| Current year (2) | 93,206 | 78,285 | 45,168 | |||||||
| Prior years (3) | (61,662) | (56,390) | (48,762) | |||||||
| Total claims and claim expenses (benefits) incurred (4) | 31,544 | 21,895 | (3,594) | |||||||
| Less claims paid: | ||||||||||
| Claims and claim expenses paid: | ||||||||||
| Current year (2) | 638 | 600 | 74 | |||||||
| Prior years (3) | 7,555 | 3,575 | 1,314 | |||||||
| Reinsurance terminations | — | (491) | — | |||||||
| Total claims and claim expenses paid | 8,193 | 3,684 | 1,388 | |||||||
| Reserve at end of period, net of reinsurance recoverables | 119,811 | 96,460 | 78,249 | |||||||
| Add reinsurance recoverables (1) | 32,260 | 27,514 | 21,587 | |||||||
| Ending balance | $ | 152,071 | $ | 123,974 | $ | 99,836 |
(1) Related to ceded losses recoverable under the QSR Transactions. See Item 8, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 6, Reinsurance” for additional information.
(2) Related to insured loans with their most recent defaults occurring in the current year. For example, if a loan defaulted in a prior year and subsequently cured and later re-defaulted in the current year, the default would be included in the current year. Amounts are presented net of reinsurance and included $83.5 million attributed to net case reserves and $8.1 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2024, $70.6 million attributed to net case reserves and $6.3 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2023, and $39.9 million attributed to net case reserves and $4.5 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2022.
(3) Related to insured loans with defaults occurring in prior years, which have been continuously in default before the start of the current year. Amounts are presented net of reinsurance and included $54.1 million attributed to net case reserves and $6.3 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2024, $50.9 million attributed to net case reserves and $4.5 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2023, and $42.5 million attributed to net case reserves and $4.7 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2022.
(4) Excludes a $0.7 million termination fee for the year ended December 31, 2023 incurred in connection with the amendment of the 2020 QSR Transaction.
The “claims incurred” section of the table above shows claims and claim expenses incurred on defaults occurring in current and prior years, including IBNR reserves and is presented net of reinsurance. We may increase or decrease our claim estimates and reserves as we learn additional information about individual defaulted loans and continue to observe and analyze loss development trends in our portfolio. Gross reserves of $35.0 million related to prior year defaults remained as of December 31, 2024.
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The following table provides a reconciliation of the beginning and ending count of loans in default:
| For the years ended December 31, | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |||||||||
| Beginning default inventory | 5,099 | 4,449 | 6,227 | ||||||||
| Plus: new defaults | 8,757 | 6,758 | 5,225 | ||||||||
| Less: cures | (6,899) | (5,892) | (6,916) | ||||||||
| Less: claims paid | (276) | (199) | (81) | ||||||||
| Less: rescission and claims denied | (39) | (17) | (6) | ||||||||
| Ending default inventory | 6,642 | 5,099 | 4,449 |
The sequential increase in ending default inventory at each successive year end was primarily due to the growth and seasoning of our insured portfolio, partially offset by cure activity within our default population during the intervening periods.
The following table provides details of our claims paid, before giving effect to claims ceded under the QSR Transactions for the periods indicated:
| For the years ended December 31, | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||||||
| ($ Values In Thousands) | ||||||||||||||
| Number of claims paid (1) | 276 | 199 | 81 | |||||||||||
| Total amount paid for claims | $ | 10,491 | $ | 5,192 | $ | 1,741 | ||||||||
| Average amount paid per claim | $ | 38 | $ | 26 | $ | 21 | ||||||||
| Severity (2) | 61 | % | 55 | % | 49 | % |
(1) Count includes 88, 70 and 30 claims settled without payment during the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
(2) Severity represents the total amount of claims paid including claim expenses divided by the related RIF on the loan at the time the claim is perfected, and is calculated including claims settled without payment.
We paid 276, 199 and 81 claims during the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022, respectively. The number of claims paid in each year was modest relative to the size of our insured portfolio and we generally observe that the borrowers of the loans we insure are well-situated with strong credit profiles, stable 30-year fixed rate mortgages, manageable debt service obligations and significant appreciated equity in their homes. An increase in the value of the homes collateralizing the mortgages we insure provides defaulted borrowers with alternative paths and incentives to cure their loan prior to the development of a claim.
Our claims severity for the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022 was 61%, 55% and 49%, respectively. Our claims severity for each year was below long-term industry norms and benefited from the same broad national house price appreciation that supported our claims paid experience. An increase in the value of the homes collateralizing the mortgages we insure provides additional equity support to our risk exposure and raises the prospect of a third-party sale of a foreclosed property, which can mitigate the severity of our settled claims.
The number of claims paid and our severity experience in future periods may be impacted if developing economic cycles impose financial strain on borrowers, and each could increase if house price declines serve to limit the alternative paths and incentives to cure delinquencies that are available to defaulted borrowers or erode the equity value of the homes collateralizing the mortgages we insure.
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The following table provides detail on our average reserve per default, before giving effect to reserves ceded under the QSR Transactions, as of the dates indicated:
| Average reserve per default: | As of December 31, | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
| (In Thousands) | ||||||||||
| Case (1) | $ | 21.0 | $ | 22.4 | $ | 20.8 | ||||
| IBNR (1) (2) | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 | |||||||
| Total | $ | 22.9 | $ | 24.3 | $ | 22.4 |
(1) Defined as the gross reserve per insured loan in default.
(2) Amount includes claims adjustment expenses.
Average reserve per default decreased from December 31, 2023 to December 31, 2024, primarily due to an increase in the proportion of defaults that trace to storm-related activity year-on-year. We generally observe that storm-related defaults cure at higher rates than other similarly situated loans in default (in non-disaster zones) and scale our reserves accordingly. Average reserves per default were further impacted by other changes in the composition of our default inventory, as well as changes in observed and forecasted housing market conditions and macroeconomic factors between the measurement dates.
Average reserve per default increased from December 31, 2022 to December 31, 2023, primarily due to changes in the composition of our default inventory as measured by the size, vintage and current estimated LTV of defaulted loans, as well as the proportion of such loans benefiting from a forbearance program granted in response to a financial hardship related to COVID-19. Average reserves per default were further impacted by changes in observed and forecasted housing market conditions and macroeconomic factors between the measurement dates.
Seasonality
Historically, our business has been subject to modest seasonality in both NIW production and default experience. Consistent with the seasonality of home sales, purchase origination volumes typically increase in late spring and peak during the summer months, leading to a rise in NIW volume during the second and third quarters of a given year. Refinancing volume, however, does not follow a set seasonal trend and is instead primarily influenced by mortgage rates. Fluctuations in refinancing volume (driven by changes in prevailing mortgage rates) may serve to mute or magnify the seasonal effect of home purchase patterns on mortgage insurance NIW. Default experience is also subject to seasonality due to seasonal patterns in household cash flows, with certain borrowers benefiting from inflows related to bonus payments and tax refunds in the first half of the year and certain borrowers more strained in the second half of the year given the lack of these inflows and increased discretionary spending through the year-end holiday season. Housing market conditions and macroeconomic factors may serve to mute or magnify these seasonal default trends.
GSE Oversight
As an approved insurer, NMIC is subject to ongoing compliance with the PMIERs established by each of the GSEs (italicized terms have the same meaning that such terms have in the PMIERs, as described below). The PMIERs establish operational, business, remedial and financial requirements applicable to approved insurers. The PMIERs financial requirements prescribe a risk-based methodology whereby the amount of assets required to be held against each insured loan is determined based on certain loan-level risk characteristics, such as FICO, vintage (year of origination), performing vs. non-performing (i.e., current vs. delinquent), LTV ratio and other risk features. In general, higher quality loans carry lower asset charges.
Under the PMIERs, approved insurers must maintain available assets that equal or exceed minimum required assets, which is an amount equal to the greater of (i) $400 million or (ii) a total risk-based required asset amount. The risk-based required asset amount is a function of the risk profile of an approved insurer's RIF, assessed on a loan-by-loan basis and considered against certain risk-based factors derived from tables set out in the PMIERs, which is then adjusted on an aggregate basis for reinsurance transactions approved by the GSEs, such as with respect to our ILN Transactions, XOL Transactions and QSR Transactions. The aggregate gross risk-based required asset amount for performing, primary insurance is subject to a floor of 5.6% of performing primary adjusted RIF.
By April 15th of each year, NMIC must certify it met all PMIERs requirements as of December 31st of the prior year. We certified to the GSEs by April 15, 2024 that NMIC was in full compliance with the PMIERs as of December 31, 2023. NMIC also has an ongoing obligation to immediately notify the GSEs in writing upon discovery of a failure to meet one or more of the PMIERs requirements. We continuously monitor NMIC's compliance with the PMIERs.
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The following table provides a comparison of the PMIERs available assets and net risk-based required asset amount as reported by NMIC as of the dates indicated:
| As of December 31, | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
| (In Thousands) | ||||||||||
| Available assets | $ | 3,108,211 | $ | 2,717,804 | $ | 2,378,627 | ||||
| Net risk-based required assets | 1,828,807 | 1,516,140 | 1,203,708 |
Available assets were $3.1 billion at December 31, 2024, compared to $2.7 billion at December 31, 2023 and $2.4 billion at December 31, 2022. The sequential increase in available assets between the dates presented was primarily driven by NMIC's positive cash flow from operations during the intervening periods, partially offset by the payment of ordinary course dividends from NMIC to NMIH during each year.
Net risk-based required assets were $1.8 billion at December 31, 2024, compared to $1.5 billion at December 31, 2023 and $1.2 billion at December 31, 2022. The increase in the net risk-based required asset amount between the dates presented was primarily due to the growth in our gross RIF and aggregate gross risk-based required asset amount, partially offset by risk ceded under our third-party reinsurance agreements.
Competition
The MI industry is highly competitive and currently consists of six private mortgage insurers, including NMIC, as well as government MIs such as the FHA, USDA or VA. Private MI companies compete based on service, customer relationships, underwriting and other factors, including price, credit risk tolerance and IT capabilities. We expect the private MI market to remain competitive, with pressure for industry participants to maintain or grow their market share.
The private MI industry overall competes more broadly with government MIs who significantly increased their share in the MI market following the 2008 Financial Crisis. Although there has been broad policy consensus toward the need for increasing private capital participation and decreasing government exposure to credit risk in the U.S. housing finance system, it remains difficult to predict whether the combined market share of government MIs will recede to pre-2008 levels. A range of factors influence a lender's and borrower's decision to choose private over government MI, including among others, premium rates and other charges, loan eligibility requirements, the cancelability of private coverage, loan size limits and the relative ease of use of private MI products compared to government MI alternatives.
Cybersecurity
We rely on technology to engage with customers, access borrower information and deliver our products and services. We have established and implemented security measures, controls and procedures to safeguard our IT systems, and prevent and detect unauthorized access to such systems or any data processed and/or stored therein. We periodically engage third parties to evaluate and test the adequacy of such security measures, controls and procedures. In addition, we have a business continuity plan that is designed to mitigate the operational impact of certain disruptive events, including disruptions to our IT systems, and we have an incident response plan that is designed to address information security incidents, including any breaches of our IT systems. Despite these safeguards, disruptions to and breaches of our IT systems are possible and may negatively impact our business.
We maintain a cybersecurity errors and omissions insurance policy to limit our exposure to loss in the event of an incident. This policy provides coverage for (i) claims related to, among other things, unauthorized network or computer access, unintentional disclosure or misuse of personally identifiable information in our possession, and unintentional failure to disclose a breach, and (ii) certain costs related to privacy notification, crisis management, cyber extortion, data recovery, business interruption and reputational harm. For further information, see Part I, Item 1C, “Cybersecurity.”
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Consolidated Results of Operations
| Consolidated statements of operations | For the years ended December 31, | $ Change | % Change | $ Change | % Change | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2024 vs. 2023 | 2023 vs. 2022 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Revenues | ($ In Thousands, except for per share data) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net premiums earned | $ | 564,688 | $ | 510,768 | $ | 475,266 | $ | 53,920 | 11 | % | $ | 35,502 | 7 | % | |||||||||||
| Net investment income | 85,316 | 67,512 | 46,406 | 17,804 | 26 | 21,106 | 45 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net realized investment gains (losses) | 23 | (33) | 481 | 56 | (170) | (514) | (107) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Other revenues | 944 | 756 | 1,192 | 188 | 25 | (436) | (37) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Total revenues | 650,971 | 579,003 | 523,345 | 71,968 | 12 | 55,658 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Expenses | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Insurance claims and claim expenses (benefits) | 31,544 | 22,618 | (3,594) | 8,926 | 39 | 26,212 | (729) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Underwriting and operating expenses | 118,397 | 110,699 | 117,490 | 7,698 | 7 | (6,791) | (6) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Service expenses | 723 | 771 | 1,094 | (48) | (6) | (323) | (30) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Interest expense | 36,896 | 32,212 | 32,163 | 4,684 | 15 | 49 | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Gain from change in fair value of warrant liability | — | — | (1,113) | — | NM (4) | 1,113 | NM (4) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Total expenses | 187,560 | 166,300 | 146,040 | 21,260 | 13 | 20,260 | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Income before income taxes | 463,411 | 412,703 | 377,305 | 50,708 | 12 | 35,398 | 9 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Income tax expense | 103,305 | 90,593 | 84,403 | 12,712 | 14 | 6,190 | 7 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net income | $ | 360,106 | $ | 322,110 | $ | 292,902 | $ | 37,996 | 12 | % | $ | 29,208 | 10 | % | |||||||||||
| Earnings per share - Basic | $ | 4.51 | $ | 3.91 | $ | 3.45 | $ | 0.60 | 15 | % | $ | 0.46 | 13 | % | |||||||||||
| Earnings per share - Diluted | $ | 4.43 | $ | 3.84 | $ | 3.39 | $ | 0.59 | 15 | % | $ | 0.45 | 13 | % | |||||||||||
| Loss ratio (1) | 5.6 | % | 4.4 | % | (0.8) | % | |||||||||||||||||||
| Expense ratio (2) | 21.0 | % | 21.7 | % | 24.7 | % | |||||||||||||||||||
| Combined ratio (3) | 26.6 | % | 26.1 | % | 24.0 | % |
| For the years ended December 31, | $ Change | % Change | $ Change | % Change | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-GAAP financial measures (5) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2024 vs. 2023 | 2023 vs. 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ($ In Thousands, except for per share data) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted income before tax | $ | 470,354 | $ | 412,736 | $ | 375,916 | $ | 57,618 | 14 | % | $ | 36,820 | 10 | % | |||||||||||
| Adjusted net income | 365,591 | 322,136 | 291,571 | 43,455 | 13 | 30,565 | 10 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted diluted EPS | 4.50 | 3.84 | 3.39 | 0.66 | 17 | 0.45 | 13 |
(1) Loss ratio is calculated by dividing insurance claims and claim expenses (benefits) by net premiums earned.
(2) Expense ratio is calculated by dividing underwriting and operating expenses by net premiums earned.
(3) Combined ratio may not foot due to rounding.
(4) Not meaningful
(5) See “Explanation and Reconciliation of Our Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures,” below.
Revenues
Net premiums earned increased sequentially during each successive year, primarily driven by growth in our monthly IIF and monthly pay premium receipts, partially offset by a decline in the contribution from single premium policy cancellations. Net premiums earned for the year ended December 31, 2024 further benefited from a year-on-year decline in the total premiums ceded under our reinsurance treaties.
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Net investment income increased sequentially during each successive year, primarily driven by an increase in the book yield of our investment portfolio tied to the deployment of new cash flows and reinvestment of rolling maturities at incrementally higher rates, as well as growth in the size of our total invested asset base.
Other revenues represent underwriting fee revenue generated by our subsidiary, NMIS, which provides outsourced loan review services to mortgage loan originators. Changes in other revenues primarily reflect changes in NMIS' outsourced loan review volume. Amounts recognized in other revenues generally correspond with amounts incurred as service expenses for outsourced loan review activities in the same periods.
Expenses
We recognize insurance claims and claim expenses in connection with the loss experience of our insured portfolio and incur other underwriting and operating expenses, including employee compensation and benefits, policy acquisition costs, and technology, professional services and facilities expenses, in connection with the development and operation of our business. We also incur service expenses in connection with NMIS' outsourced loan review activities.
Insurance claims and claim expenses increased during each successive year, primarily driven by an increase in the number of newly defaulted loans that emerged in each successive period and the establishment of initial reserves against such loans, as well as an increase in the average case reserve held against previously defaulted loans that aged in their delinquency status through the periods, and was partially offset by the release of a portion of the reserves we established for anticipated claims payments in prior periods in connection with cure activity and ongoing analysis of recent loss development trends.
Underwriting and operating expenses increased during the year ended December 31, 2024, primarily reflecting an increase in employee compensation costs and an adjustment to the pace of amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs, partially offset by an increase in ceding commissions received under our QSR Transactions and a decline in certain technology expenses.
The decline in underwriting and operating expenses for the year ended December 31, 2023 primarily reflected a decrease in the amortization of deferred acquisition costs tied to the increased persistency of our IIF during the period and a full-year impact of ceding commissions received in connection with the 2022 Seasoned QSR Transaction (which was in effect for only a portion of the year ended December 31, 2022), partially offset by an increase in employee compensation costs.
Service expenses represent third-party costs incurred by NMIS in connection with the services it provides. Changes in service expenses primarily reflect changes in NMIS' outsourced loan review volume. Amounts incurred as service expenses generally correspond with amounts recognized in other revenues in the same periods.
Interest expense primarily reflects the carrying costs of the notes. Interest expense for the year ended December 31, 2024 includes $7.0 million of non-recurring costs related to the refinancing of the 2020 Notes and 2021 Revolving Credit Facility with the 2024 Notes and 2024 Revolving Credit Facility. For further information, see Item 8, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 5, Debt.”
Income tax expense increased sequentially during each successive year and was primarily driven by the growth in our pre-tax income. As a U.S. taxpayer, we are subject to a U.S. federal corporate income tax rate of 21%. Our effective income tax rate on pre-tax income was 22.3%, 22.0% and 22.4% for the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022, respectively. Our effective tax rate increased for the year ended December 31, 2024 compared to the year ended December 31, 2023 primarily due to the limitation on deductible compensation for covered employees under Section 162(m) of the IRC. Our effective tax rate decreased for the year ended December 31, 2023 compared to the year ended December 31, 2022 primarily due to an increase in the tax benefit realized from excess share-based compensation for stock options exercised in the period. For further information regarding income taxes and their impact on our results of operations and financial position, see Item 8, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 11, Income Taxes.”
Net Income
Net income and adjusted net income increased in each successive year primarily due to growth in our total revenues, partially offset by increases in our insurance claims and claim expenses and income tax expenses. The sequential trends in net income and adjusted net income were further impacted by changes in underwriting and operating expenses. Net income for the year ended December 31, 2024 includes non-recurring costs incurred in connection with the refinancing of the 2020 Notes and 2021 Revolving Credit Facility; such amounts are excluded from the calculation of adjusted net income.
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Diluted and adjusted diluted EPS increased during each successive year primarily due to growth in our net income and adjusted net income, as well as a decline in the number of weighted average diluted shares outstanding tied to share repurchase activity.
The non-GAAP financial measures of adjusted income before tax, adjusted net income and adjusted diluted EPS are presented to enhance the comparability of financial results between periods.
| Non-GAAP Financial Measure Reconciliations | For the years ended December 31, | $ Change | % Change | $ Change | % Change | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2024 vs. 2023 | 2023 vs. 2022 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| ($ In Thousands, except for per share data) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| As reported | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Income before income tax | $ | 463,411 | $ | 412,703 | $ | 377,305 | $ | 50,708 | 12 | % | $ | 35,398 | 9 | % | |||||||||||
| Income tax expense | 103,305 | 90,593 | 84,403 | 12,712 | 14 | 6,190 | 7 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net income | $ | 360,106 | $ | 322,110 | $ | 292,902 | $ | 37,996 | 12 | % | $ | 29,208 | 10 | % | |||||||||||
| Adjustments | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net realized investment (gains) losses | (23) | 33 | (481) | (56) | (170) | 514 | (107) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Gain from change in fair value warrant liability | — | — | (1,113) | — | NM (2) | 1,113 | NM (2) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Capital market transaction costs | 6,966 | — | 205 | 6,966 | NM (2) | (205) | NM (2) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted income before tax | $ | 470,354 | $ | 412,736 | $ | 375,916 | $ | 57,618 | 14 | % | $ | 36,820 | 10 | % | |||||||||||
| Income tax expense (benefit) on adjustments (1) | 1,458 | 7 | (58) | 1,451 | NM (2) | 65 | (112) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted net income | $ | 365,591 | $ | 322,136 | $ | 291,571 | $ | 43,455 | 13 | % | $ | 30,565 | 10 | % | |||||||||||
| Weighted average diluted shares outstanding | 81,273 | 83,854 | 85,999 | (2,581) | (3) | (2,145) | (2) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted diluted EPS | $ | 4.50 | $ | 3.84 | $ | 3.39 | $ | 0.66 | 17 | % | $ | 0.45 | 13 | % |
(1) Marginal tax impact of non-GAAP adjustments is calculated based on our statutory U.S. federal corporate income tax rate of 21%, except for those items that are not eligible for an income tax deduction.
(2) Not meaningful.
Explanation and Reconciliation of Our Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
We believe the use of the non-GAAP measures of adjusted income before tax, adjusted net income and adjusted diluted EPS enhances the comparability of our fundamental financial performance between periods, and provides relevant information to investors. These non-GAAP financial measures align with the way the company's business performance is evaluated by management. These measures are not prepared in accordance with GAAP and should not be viewed as alternatives to GAAP measures of performance. These measures have been presented to increase transparency and enhance the comparability of our fundamental operating trends across periods. Other companies may calculate these measures differently; their measures may not be comparable to those we calculate and present.
Adjusted income before tax is defined as GAAP income before tax, excluding the pre-tax effects of net realized gains or losses from our investment portfolio, the gain or loss related to the change in fair value of our warrant liability, periodic costs incurred in connection with capital markets transactions, and other infrequent, unusual or non-operating items in the periods in which such items are incurred.
Adjusted net income is defined as GAAP net income, excluding the after-tax effects of net realized gains or losses from our investment portfolio, the gain or loss related to the change in fair value of our warrant liability, periodic costs incurred in connection with capital markets transactions, and other infrequent, unusual or non-operating items in the periods in which such items are incurred. Adjustments to components of pre-tax income are tax effected using the applicable federal statutory tax rate for the respective periods.
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Adjusted diluted EPS is defined as adjusted net income divided by adjusted weighted average diluted shares outstanding. Adjusted weighted average diluted shares outstanding is defined as weighted average diluted shares outstanding, adjusted for changes in the dilutive effect of non-vested shares that would otherwise have occurred had GAAP net income been calculated in accordance with adjusted net income. There will be no adjustment to weighted average diluted shares outstanding in the years that non-vested shares are anti-dilutive under GAAP.
Although adjusted income before tax, adjusted net income and adjusted diluted EPS exclude certain items that have occurred in the past and are expected to occur in the future, the excluded items: (1) are not viewed as part of the operating performance of our primary activities; or (2) are impacted by market, economic or regulatory factors and are not necessarily indicative of operating trends, or both. These adjustments, and the reasons for their treatment, are described below.
•Net realized investment gains and losses. The recognition of net realized investment gains or losses can vary significantly across periods as the timing is highly discretionary and is influenced by factors such as market opportunities, tax and capital profile, and overall market cycles that do not reflect our current period operating results.
•Change in fair value of warrant liability. Outstanding warrants at the end of each reporting period are revalued, and any change in fair value is reported in the statement of operations in the period in which the change occurred. The change in fair value of our warrant liability can vary significantly across periods and is influenced principally by equity market and general economic factors that do not impact or reflect our current period operating results. Furthermore, all unexercised warrants expired in April 2022 and, as such, no change in fair value has been recognized in any reporting periods thereafter. We believe trends in our operating performance can be more clearly identified by excluding fluctuations related to the change in fair value of our warrant liability.
•Capital markets transaction costs. Capital markets transaction costs result from activities that are undertaken to improve our debt profile or enhance our capital position through activities such as debt refinancing and capital markets reinsurance transactions that may vary in their size and timing due to factors such as market opportunities, tax and capital profile, and overall market cycles.
•Other infrequent, unusual or non-operating items. Items that are the result of unforeseen or uncommon events, and are not expected to recur with frequency in the future. Identification and exclusion of these items provides clarity about the impact special or rare occurrences may have on our current financial performance. Past adjustments under this category include infrequent, unusual or non-operating adjustments related to severance, restricted stock modification and other expenses incurred in connection with the CEO transition announced in September 2021 and the effects of the release of the valuation allowance recorded against our net federal and certain state net deferred tax assets in 2016 and the re-measurement of our net deferred tax assets in connection with tax reform in 2017. We believe such items are infrequent or non-recurring in nature, and are not indicative of the performance of, or ongoing trends in, our primary operating activities or business.
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| Consolidated balance sheets | December 31, 2024 | December 31, 2023 | $ Change | % Change | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In Thousands) | ||||||||||||||
| Total investment portfolio | $ | 2,723,541 | $ | 2,371,021 | $ | 352,520 | 15 | % | ||||||
| Cash and cash equivalents | 54,308 | 96,689 | (42,381) | (44) | ||||||||||
| Premiums receivable, net | 82,804 | 76,456 | 6,348 | 8 | ||||||||||
| Deferred policy acquisition costs, net | 64,327 | 62,905 | 1,422 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Software and equipment, net | 25,681 | 30,252 | (4,571) | (15) | ||||||||||
| Reinsurance recoverable | 32,260 | 27,514 | 4,746 | 17 | ||||||||||
| Prepaid federal income taxes | 322,175 | 235,286 | 86,889 | 37 | ||||||||||
| Other assets | 44,877 | 40,384 | 4,493 | 11 | ||||||||||
| Total assets | $ | 3,349,973 | $ | 2,940,507 | $ | 409,466 | 14 | % | ||||||
| Debt | $ | 415,146 | $ | 397,595 | $ | 17,551 | 4 | % | ||||||
| Unearned premiums | 65,217 | 92,295 | (27,078) | (29) | ||||||||||
| Accounts payable and accrued expenses | 103,164 | 86,189 | 16,975 | 20 | ||||||||||
| Reserve for insurance claims and claim expenses | 152,071 | 123,974 | 28,097 | 23 | ||||||||||
| Deferred tax liability, net | 386,192 | 301,573 | 84,619 | 28 | ||||||||||
| Other liabilities | 10,751 | 12,877 | (2,126) | (17) | ||||||||||
| Total liabilities | 1,132,541 | 1,014,503 | 118,038 | 12 | ||||||||||
| Total shareholders' equity | 2,217,432 | 1,926,004 | 291,428 | 15 | ||||||||||
| Total liabilities and shareholders' equity | $ | 3,349,973 | $ | 2,940,507 | $ | 409,466 | 14 | % |
Total cash and investments increased due to the addition of incremental cash provided by operating activities and a decrease in the unrealized loss position of our fixed income portfolio primarily tied to changes in interest rates, partially offset by share repurchase activity during the year ended December 31, 2024. Cash and investments at December 31, 2024 included $132.2 million held by NMIH.
Net premiums receivable represents premiums due on our mortgage insurance policies and may fluctuate based on changes in our monthly premium policies in force, where premiums are generally paid one month in arrears, and the pace of settlement of previously outstanding receivables.
Net software and equipment decreased due to a step-down in capitalized costs related to our agreement with TCS.
Net deferred policy acquisition costs increased due to the deferral of certain costs associated with the origination of new policies between the respective balance sheet dates and was partially offset by the recognition of previously deferred policy acquisition costs.
Reinsurance recoverable increased year-on-year as a result of an increase in ceded losses recoverable under our QSR Transactions.
Prepaid federal income taxes increased due to the purchase of $86.9 million of tax and loss bonds during the year ended December 31, 2024. For further information, see Item 8, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 11, Income Taxes.”
Other assets increased primarily driven by an increase in accrued investment income and the capitalization of deferred debt issuance costs incurred in connection with the establishment of the 2024 Revolving Credit Facility, partially offset by a reduction in our right-of-use (ROU) assets tied to the amortization of the operating lease for our corporate headquarters.
Debt as of December 31, 2024 represented the carrying value of the $425 million aggregate principal amount 2024 Notes, which were issued in May 2024. Debt as of December 31, 2023 represented the carrying value of the $400 million aggregate principal amount 2020 Notes, which were redeemed in full upon the completion of the 2024 Notes offering. For further information, see Item 8, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 5, Debt.”
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Unearned premiums decreased driven by the amortization of existing unearned premiums through earnings in accordance with the expiration of risk on related single premium policies and the cancellations of other single premium policies, partially offset by single premium policy originations during the year ended December 31, 2024.
Accounts payable and accrued expenses increased primarily due to accrued and unpaid interest on the 2024 Notes, which is payable semi-annually beginning in February 2025, as well as an increase in reinsurance premiums payable, partially offset by the settlement of certain contractual payables during the year ended December 31, 2024.
Reserve for insurance claims and claim expenses increased in connection with the establishment of initial reserves on newly defaulted loans during the year ended December 31, 2024, as well as an increase in the average case reserve held against previously defaulted loans that have aged in their delinquency status. The increase in the reserves for insurance claims and claim expenses was partially offset by the release of a portion of the reserves we established for anticipated claims payments in prior periods (in connection with cure activity and ongoing analysis of recent loss development trends), as well as the payment of previously reserved claims during the period. See “Insurance Claims and Claim Expenses,” above for further details.
Net deferred tax liability increased due to an increase in the claimed deductibility of our statutory contingency reserve, as well as a decrease in the aggregate unrealized loss position of our fixed income portfolio recorded in other comprehensive income. For further information regarding income taxes and their impact on our results of operations and financial position, see Item 8, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 11, Income Taxes.”
The following table summarizes our consolidated cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities:
| Consolidated cash flows | For the years ended December 31, | $ Change | % Change | $ Change | % Change | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2024 vs. 2023 | 2023 vs. 2022 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Net cash provided by (used in): | (In Thousands) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Operating activities | $ | 393,604 | $ | 342,683 | $ | 313,394 | $ | 50,921 | 15 | % | $ | 29,289 | 9 | % | |||||||||||
| Investing activities | (339,286) | (200,000) | (289,786) | (139,286) | 70 | 89,786 | (31) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Financing activities | (96,699) | (90,420) | (55,828) | (6,279) | 7 | (34,592) | 62 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net (decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents | $ | (42,381) | $ | 52,263 | $ | (32,220) | $ | (94,644) | (181) | % | $ | 84,483 | (262) | % |
Net cash provided by operating activities increased in each successive year primarily due to an increase in our net premium receipts and growth in our investment income, partially offset by an increase in the purchase of tax and loss bonds from period-to-period. Cash provided by operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2024, was further impacted by an increase in cash taxes paid and the settlement of previously accrued short-term employee incentive awards. Cash provided by operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2023, was also impacted by a decline in short-term employee incentive payments.
Cash used in investing activities for the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022 reflects the purchase of fixed and short-term maturities with cash provided by operating activities, and the reinvestment of coupon payments, maturities and redemption proceeds within our investment portfolio.
Cash used in financing activities primarily relates to the repurchase of common stock and taxes paid on the net share settlement of equity awards for certain employees. Cash used in financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2024 further reflects the net impact of the redemption of the 2020 Notes and issuance of the 2024 Notes during the period.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
NMIH serves as the holding company for our insurance subsidiaries and does not have any significant operations of its own. NMIH's principal liquidity demands include funds for (i) payment of certain corporate expenses; (ii) payment of certain reimbursable expenses of its insurance subsidiaries; (iii) payment of the interest related to the 2024 Notes and 2024 Revolving Credit Facility; (iv) tax payments to the Internal Revenue Service; (v) capital support for its subsidiaries; (vi) repurchase of its common stock; and (vii) payment of dividends, if any, on its common stock. NMIH is not subject to any limitations on its ability to pay dividends except those generally applicable to corporations that are incorporated in Delaware. Delaware law provides that dividends are only payable out of a corporation's surplus or recent net profits (subject to certain limitations).
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As of December 31, 2024, NMIH had $132.2 million of cash and investments. NMIH's principal sources of net cash are dividends from its subsidiaries and investment income. NMIC has the capacity to pay aggregate ordinary dividends of $98.4 million to NMIH during the twelve-month period ending December 31, 2025. NMIH also has access to $250 million of undrawn revolving credit capacity under the 2024 Revolving Credit Facility.
On February 10, 2022, our Board of Directors authorized a $125 million share repurchase program (excluding associated costs and applicable taxes, the 2022 Repurchase Program) effective through December 31, 2023. On July 31, 2023, our Board of Directors authorized a $200 million share repurchase program (excluding associated costs and applicable taxes, the 2023 Repurchase Program) effective through December 31, 2025 and extended the 2022 Repurchase Program through December 31, 2025 to align its remaining tenor with that of the 2023 Repurchase Program.
During the year ended December 31, 2024, NMIH repurchased 2.8 million shares of common stock at a total cost of $97.7 million, including associated costs and applicable taxes. As of December 31, 2024, NMIH had $80.1 million of repurchase authority remaining.
On February 5, 2025, our Board of Directors authorized a new $250 million share repurchase program (excluding associated costs and applicable taxes, the 2025 Repurchase Program) effective through December 31, 2027. The authorization provides us the flexibility, based on market and business conditions, stock price and other factors, to repurchase stock from time to time through open market repurchases, privately negotiated transactions, or other means, including pursuant to Rule 10b5-1 trading plans. Concurrent with the new authorization, our Board of Directors also approved an extension of our existing share repurchase programs through December 31, 2027 to align its remaining tenor with that of the new $250 million program.
On May 21, 2024, NMIH completed the $425 million sale of the 2024 Notes, raising net proceeds of $414.1 million after giving effect to offering expenses and an initial underwriting discount. Net proceeds from the offering were primarily used to effect the redemption of the $400 million aggregate principal amount 2020 Notes. In June 2024, NMIH contributed remaining net proceeds of the offering to NMIC. For more information, see Item 8, “Financial Statements - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 5, Debt.”
NMIH has entered into tax and expense-sharing agreements with its subsidiaries which have been approved by the Wisconsin OCI, with such approvals subject to change or revocation at any time. Among such agreements, the Wisconsin OCI has approved the allocation of interest expense on the 2024 Notes and 2024 Revolving Credit Facility to NMIC, to the extent proceeds from such offering and facility are contributed to NMIC or used to repay, redeem or otherwise defease amounts raised by NMIC under prior credit arrangements that have previously been distributed to NMIC.
The 2024 Notes mature on August 15, 2029 and bear interest at a rate of 6.00%, payable semi-annually on February 15 and August 15. The 2024 Revolving Credit Facility matures on May 21, 2029, and accrues interest at a variable rate equal to, at our discretion, (i) a Base Rate (as defined in the 2024 Revolving Credit Facility, subject to a floor of 1.00% per annum) plus a margin of 0.375% to 1.875% per annum, or (ii) the Adjusted Term SOFR Rate (as defined in the 2024 Revolving Credit Facility) plus a margin of 1.375% to 2.875% per annum, with the margin in each of (i) or (ii) based on our applicable corporate credit rating at the time. Borrowings under the 2024 Revolving Credit Facility may be used for general corporate purposes, including to support the growth of our new business production and operations.
Under the 2024 Revolving Credit Facility, NMIH is required to pay a quarterly commitment fee on the average daily undrawn amount of 0.175% to 0.525%, based on the applicable corporate credit rating at the time. As of December 31, 2024, the applicable commitment fee was 0.225%.
We are subject to certain covenants under the 2024 Revolving Credit Facility. Under the 2024 Revolving Credit Facility, NMIH may not permit (i) our debt to total capitalization ratio to exceed 35% as of the last day of any fiscal quarter, or (ii) our consolidated net worth to be, as of the last day of any fiscal quarter, less than the sum of (A) $1,489,742,100, plus (B) 50% of our cumulative consolidated net income for each fiscal quarter for which such consolidated net income is positive, plus (C) 50% of any increase in our consolidated net worth after March 31, 2024 resulting from certain issuances of equity by or capital contributions to NMIH or our subsidiaries. In addition, NMIC must remain at all times in compliance with all applicable “financial requirements” imposed pursuant to the PMIERs, subject to any allowed transition period or forbearance thereunder. The credit agreement for 2024 Revolving Credit Facility also prohibits, restricts or limits, among other things, NMIH's and its subsidiaries' ability to (i) incur additional indebtedness, (ii) incur liens on their property, (iii) pay dividends or make other distributions, (iv) sell their assets, (v) make certain loans or investments, (vi) merge or consolidate and (vii) enter into transactions with affiliates, in each case subject to certain limitations, exceptions and qualifications as set forth in the credit agreement for 2024 Revolving Credit Facility. We were in compliance with all covenants at December 31, 2024.
NMIC and Re One are subject to certain capital and dividend rules and regulations prescribed by jurisdictions in which
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they are authorized to operate and by the GSEs. Under Wisconsin insurance laws, NMIC and Re One may pay dividends up to specified levels (i.e., “ordinary” dividends) with 30 days' prior notice to the Wisconsin OCI. Dividends in larger amounts, or “extraordinary” dividends, are subject to the Wisconsin OCI's prior approval. Under Wisconsin insurance laws, an extraordinary dividend is defined as any payment or distribution that, together with other dividends and distributions made within the preceding twelve months, exceeds the lesser of (i) 10% of the insurer's statutory policyholders' surplus as of the preceding December 31 or (ii) adjusted statutory net income for the twelve-month period ending the preceding December 31. During the year ended December 31, 2024, NMIC paid a $96.3 million ordinary course dividend to NMIH. NMIC has the capacity to pay aggregate ordinary dividends of $98.4 million to NMIH during the twelve-month period ending December 31, 2025.
As an approved insurer under PMIERs, NMIC would generally be subject to additional restrictions on its ability to pay dividends to NMIH if it failed to meet the financial requirements prescribed by PMIERs. Approved insurers that fail to meet the prescribed PMIERs financial requirements are not permitted to pay dividends without prior approval from the GSEs.
NMIH may require liquidity to fund the capital needs of its insurance subsidiaries. NMIC’s capital needs depend on many factors including its ability to successfully write new business, establish premium rates at levels sufficient to cover claims and operating costs, access the reinsurance markets and meet minimum required asset thresholds under the PMIERs and minimum state capital requirements (respectively, as defined therein).
As an approved mortgage insurer and Wisconsin-domiciled carrier, NMIC is required to satisfy financial and/or capitalization requirements stipulated by each of the GSEs and the Wisconsin OCI. The financial requirements stipulated by the GSEs are outlined in the PMIERs. Under the PMIERs, NMIC must maintain available assets that are equal to or exceed a minimum risk-based required asset amount, subject to a minimum floor of $400 million.
The risk-based required asset amount under PMIERs is determined at an individual policy-level based on the risk characteristics of each insured loan. Loans with higher risk factors, such as higher LTVs or lower borrower FICO scores, are assessed a higher charge. Non-performing loans that have missed two or more payments are generally assessed a significantly higher charge than performing loans, regardless of the underlying borrower or loan risk profile; however, special consideration is given under PMIERs to loans that are delinquent on homes located in an area declared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to be a Major Disaster zone eligible for Individual Assistance.
NMIC’s PMIERs minimum risk-based required asset amount is also adjusted for its reinsurance transactions (as approved by the GSEs). Under NMIC’s quota share reinsurance treaties, it receives credit for the PMIERs risk-based required asset amount on ceded RIF. As its gross PMIERs risk-based required asset amount on ceded RIF increases, the PMIERs credit for ceded RIF automatically increases as well (in an unlimited amount). Under NMIC’s ILN and XOL Transactions, it generally receives credit for the PMIERs risk-based required asset amount on ceded RIF to the extent such requirement is within the subordinated coverage (excess of loss detachment threshold) afforded by the transaction.
On August 21, 2024, the GSEs and FHFA updated PMIERs to revise the Available Asset credit mortgage insurers will receive for certain assets based on several factors, including asset class and credit rating. The updated PMIERs will take effect on a phased basis beginning March 31, 2025 and will be fully implemented on September 30, 2026. We do not expect the updated PMIERs to have a material impact on our available assets and risk-based required assets, and we expect to remain in full compliance with the existing and updated PMIERs, as applicable, prior to, on and after March 31, 2025.
NMIC is also subject to state regulatory minimum capital requirements based on its RIF. Formulations of this minimum capital vary by state, however, the most common measure allows for a maximum ratio of RIF to statutory capital (commonly referred to as RTC) of 25:1. The RTC calculation does not assess a different charge or impose a different threshold RTC limit based on the underlying risk characteristics of the insured portfolio. Non-performing loans are treated the same as performing loans under the RTC framework. As such, the PMIERs generally imposes a stricter financial requirement than the state RTC standard.
As of December 31, 2024, NMIC had a RTC ratio of 12.7:1 with $36.6 billion of performing primary RIF, net of reinsurance, and $2.9 billion of total statutory capital, including contingency reserves. Re One has no risk in force remaining and no longer reports a RTC ratio.
NMIC’s principal sources of liquidity include (i) premium receipts on its insured portfolio and new business production, (ii) interest income on its investment portfolio and principal repayments on maturities therein, and (iii) existing cash and cash equivalent holdings. At December 31, 2024, NMIC had $2.6 billion of cash and investments, including $10.2 million of cash and cash equivalents. NMIC's principal liquidity demands include funds for the payment of (i) reimbursable holding company expenses, (ii) premiums ceded under our reinsurance transactions (iii) claims payments, and (iv) taxes as due or otherwise
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deferred through the purchase of tax and loss bonds. NMIC’s cash inflow is generally significantly in excess of its cash outflow in any given period. During the twelve-month period ended December 31, 2024, NMIC generated $366 million of cash flow from operations and received an additional $229 million of cash flow on the maturity and redemption of securities held in its investment portfolio. NMIC is not a party to any contracts (derivative or otherwise) that require it to post an increasing amount of collateral to any counterparty and NMIC’s principal liquidity demands (other than claims payments) generally develop along a scheduled path (i.e., are of a contractually predetermined amount and due at a contractually predetermined date). NMIC’s only use of cash with the potential to develop along an unscheduled path is claims payments. Given the relatively small size of our current population of defaulted policies, the generally extended duration of the default-to-foreclosure-to-claim cycle, and the potential availability of forbearance, foreclosure moratorium and other borrower assistance programs (which serve to further extend the default-to-foreclosure-to-claim cycle timeline), we do not expect NMIC to use a meaningful amount of cash to settle claims in the near-term.
Debt and Financial Strength Ratings
NMIC’s financial strength is rated “A-” by Fitch Ratings (Fitch), “A3” by Moody’s, and “A-” by S&P. NMIH’s 2024 Notes are rated “BBB-” by Fitch and “Baa3” by Moody’s. In January 2025, Fitch revised the outlook for all its ratings from stable to positive. The outlook for all ratings provided by Moody’s and S&P is stable.
Consolidated Investment Portfolio
The primary objectives of our investment activity are to generate investment income and preserve capital, while maintaining sufficient liquidity to cover our operating needs. We aim to achieve diversification by type, quality, maturity, and industry. We have adopted an investment policy that defines, among other things, eligible and ineligible investments; concentration limits for asset types, industry sectors, single issuers, and certain credit ratings; and benchmarks for asset duration.
Our investment portfolio is comprised entirely of fixed maturity instruments. As of December 31, 2024, the fair value of our investment portfolio was $2.7 billion and we held an additional $54.3 million of cash and cash equivalents. Pre-tax book yield on the investment portfolio for the year ended December 31, 2024 was 3.0%. Book yield is calculated as period-to-date net investment income divided by the average amortized cost of the investment portfolio. The yield on our investment portfolio is likely to change over time based on movements in interest rates, credit spreads, the duration or mix of our holdings and other factors.
The following tables present a breakdown of our investment portfolio and cash and cash equivalents by investment type and credit rating:
| Percentage of portfolio's fair value | December 31, 2024 | December 31, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate debt securities | 67 | % | 61 | % | |
| Municipal debt securities | 23 | 25 | |||
| Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments | 5 | 5 | |||
| U.S. treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies | 4 | 7 | |||
| Asset-backed securities | 1 | 2 | |||
| Total | 100 | % | 100 | % |
| Investment portfolio ratings at fair value (1) | December 31, 2024 | December 31, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA (2) | 8 | % | 9 | % | |
| AA (3) | 35 | 34 | |||
| A (3) | 46 | 44 | |||
| BBB (3) | 11 | 13 | |||
| BB (4) | — | — | |||
| Total | 100 | % | 100 | % |
(1) Excluding certain operating cash accounts.
(2) Includes short-term securities rated A-1+.
(3) Includes +/– ratings.
(4) We held one security with a BB+ rating at December 31, 2024 and 2023, which is not identifiable in the table due to rounding.
All of our investments are rated by one or more nationally recognized statistical rating organizations. If three or more
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ratings are available, we assign the middle rating for classification purposes, otherwise we assign the lowest rating.
Investment Securities - Allowance for credit losses
We did not recognize an allowance for credit loss for any security in the investment portfolio as of December 31, 2024 or 2023, and we did not record any provision for credit loss for investment securities during the years ended December 31, 2024 or 2023.
As of December 31, 2024, the investment portfolio had gross unrealized losses of $158.6 million, of which $150.8 million were associated with securities that had been in an unrealized loss position for a period of twelve months or longer. As of December 31, 2023, the investment portfolio had gross unrealized losses of $184.3 million, of which $183.1 million were associated with securities that had been in an unrealized loss position for a period of twelve months or longer.
We evaluated the securities in an unrealized loss position as of December 31, 2024, assessing their credit ratings as well as any adverse conditions specifically related to the security. Based upon our assessment of the amount and timing of cash flows to be collected over the remaining life of each instrument, we believe the unrealized losses as of December 31, 2024 are not indicative of the ultimate collectability of the current amortized cost of the securities. Rather, the unrealized losses on securities held as of December 31, 2024 were primarily driven by fluctuations in interest rates, and to a lesser extent, movements in credit spreads following the purchase of those securities.
Taxes
We are a U.S. taxpayer and are subject to a statutory U.S. federal corporate income tax rate of 21%. Our holding company files a consolidated U.S. federal and various state income tax returns on behalf of itself and its subsidiaries.
Our effective income tax rate on pre-tax income was 22.3%, 22.0% and 22.4% for the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022, respectively. Our effective income tax rate may vary from the statutory tax rate in a given period due to the inclusions and exclusions of income and deductions for tax purposes. Inclusions of tax deductions may include tax benefits from excess share-based compensation for vested RSUs and exercised stock options; and exclusions from income may include the fair value fluctuation of our warrant liability.
At December 31, 2024, we had a federal net operating loss carryforward of $1.0 million, which expire in varying amounts in 2030 and 2031, and state net operating loss carryforwards of $135.2 million, which begin to expire in varying amounts in 2032. Our ability to utilize our remaining federal net operating loss carryforward is restricted by Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code (IRC), which imposes annual limitations if there is an “ownership change.” As a result of the acquisition of our insurance subsidiaries in 2012, $7.3 million of federal net operating losses were subject to annual limitations of $0.8 million through 2016, $0.5 million in 2017 and $0.3 million, thereafter, through 2028. Our remaining federal net operating loss carryforward balance is a result of this limitation.
As a mortgage guaranty insurance company, we are eligible to claim a tax deduction for our statutory contingency reserve balance, subject to certain limitations outlined under Section 832(e) of the IRC, and only to the extent we acquire tax and loss bonds in an amount equal to the tax benefit derived from the claimed deduction. As of December 31, 2024, we held $322.2 million of tax and loss bonds in “Prepaid Federal Income Taxes” on our consolidated balance sheets.
We record a valuation allowance against the state net operating losses generated by NMIH as NMIH has historically operated at a loss, and we do not expect to utilize such net deferred tax assets in the future. We continue to evaluate the realizability of our state net deferred tax asset position, and our examination of results through December 31, 2024 and review of future expectations support the continued application of a valuation allowance against such state net deferred tax assets.
NMIH and its subsidiaries entered into a tax sharing agreement effective August 23, 2012, which was subsequently amended on September 1, 2016. Under original and amended agreements, each of the parties agreed to file consolidated federal income tax returns for all tax years beginning in and subsequent to 2012, with NMIH as the direct tax filer. The tax liability of each subsidiary that is party to the agreement is limited to the amount of the liability it would incur if it filed separate returns.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) enacted in August 2022 imposed, among other provisions, a 1% excise tax on the net value of stock repurchases made on or after January 1, 2023. As of December 31, 2024, $80.1 million of repurchase authority remained available under the share repurchase program authorized by our Board of Directors through December 31, 2025. We expect future repurchase amounts will be subject to the IRA excise tax as executed; however, we do not currently expect the excise tax or other provisions of the IRA to have a material impact on our financial condition or result of operations.
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Critical Accounting Estimates
Our discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations are based on our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in conformity with GAAP. In preparing our consolidated financial statements, management has made estimates and assumptions, and applied judgments that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting periods. As a result, actual results could differ materially from those estimates. A summary of the accounting estimates that management believes are critical to the preparation of our consolidated financial statements is set forth below.
Insurance Premium Revenue Recognition
Premiums for primary mortgage insurance policies may be paid in a single payment at origination (single premium), on a monthly installment basis (monthly premium) or on an annual installment basis (annual premium), with such election and payment type fixed at policy inception. Premiums written at origination for single premium policies are initially deferred as unearned premiums and amortized into earnings over the estimated policy life in accordance with the anticipated expiration of risk, which is primarily derived from the term of the mortgage loans, original LTV and the interest rate for each individual policy. Monthly premiums are recognized as revenue in the month billed and when coverage is effective. Annual premiums are initially deferred and earned on a straight-line basis over the year of coverage. Upon cancellation of a policy, all remaining non-refundable deferred and unearned premium is immediately earned, and any refundable deferred and unearned premium is returned to the policyholder and recorded as a reduction to written premium and unearned premium reserve in the period paid.
Reserve for Insurance Claims and Claim Expenses
We establish reserves for claims based on our best estimate of the ultimate claim costs for defaulted loans using the general principles contained in ASC 944, Financial Services - Insurance (ASC 944). A loan is considered to be in “default” as of the payment date at which a borrower has missed the preceding two or more consecutive monthly payments. We establish reserves for loans that have been reported to us in default by servicers, referred to as case reserves, and additional loans that we estimate (based on actuarial review and other factors) to be in default that have not yet been reported to us by servicers, referred to as IBNR reserves. We also establish reserves for claim expenses, which represent the estimated cost of the claim administration process, including legal and other fees, as well as other general expenses of administering the claim settlement process. Claim expense reserves are either allocated (i.e., associated with a specific claim) or unallocated (i.e., not associated with a specific claim).
The establishment of claims and claim expense reserves is subject to inherent uncertainty and requires significant judgment by management. Reserves are established by estimating the number of loans in default that will result in a claim payment, which is referred to as claim frequency, and the amount of claim payment expected to be paid on each such loan in default, which is referred to as claim severity. Claim frequency and severity estimates are established based on historical observed experience regarding certain loan factors, such as age of the default, size of the loan and LTV ratios, and are strongly influenced by assumptions about the path of certain economic factors, such as house price appreciation, trends in unemployment and mortgage rates. We consider the appropriateness of such inputs at each fiscal quarter and conduct an actuarial review annually to evaluate and, if necessary, update these assumptions.
It is possible that a relatively small change in our estimates for claim frequency or claim severity could have a material impact on our reserve position and our consolidated results of operations, even in a stable macroeconomic environment. At December 31, 2024, assuming all other estimates remain constant, a one percentage point increase/decrease in our average claim severity factor would cause approximately a +/- $1.4 million change in our reserve position, and a one percentage point increase/decrease in our average claim frequency factor cause approximately a +/- $4.8 million change in our reserve position.
Investments - Credit losses and Other Impairments
We have designated our investment portfolio as available-for-sale and report our invested assets at fair value. Unrealized gains and losses in the portfolio, net of related tax expense or benefit, are recognized as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) in shareholders' equity.
Purchases and sales of investments are recorded on a trade date basis. Net investment income is recognized when earned, and includes interest and dividend income together with amortization of market premiums and discounts using the effective yield method, and is net of investment management fees and other investment related expenses. For asset-backed securities and any other holdings for which there is a prepayment risk, prepayment assumptions are evaluated and revised as necessary. Any adjustments required due to changes in effective yields and prepayment assumptions are recognized on a prospective basis.
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We recognize an impairment on a security through the consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive income if (i) we intend to sell the impaired security; or (ii) it is more likely than not that we will be required to sell the impaired security prior to recovery of its amortized cost basis. If a sale is intended or likely to be required, we write down the amortized cost basis of the security to fair value and recognize the full amount of the impairment through the consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive income as a “Realized Investment Loss.”
For securities in an unrealized loss position where a sale is not intended or likely to be required, we further assess if the decline in fair value below amortized cost is driven by a credit related impairment, considering several items including, but not limited to:
•the severity of the decline in fair value;
•the financial condition of the issuer;
•the failure of the issuer to make scheduled interest or principal payments;
•recent rating downgrades of the applicable security or issuer by one or more nationally recognized statistical ratings organization; and
•other adverse conditions related to or impacting the security or issuer.
To the extent we determine that a security impairment is credit-related, an impairment loss is recognized through the statement of operations as a provision for credit loss expense, and presented as a “Realized Investment Loss.” We recognize an allowance for credit losses for the difference between the amortized cost and present value of future expected cash flows, limited by the amount the fair value of the security is below its amortized cost. Subsequent changes (favorable and unfavorable) in credit losses are recognized through the statement of operations as a provision for or a reversal of credit loss expense, and presented as a “Realized Investment Gain or Loss.” The portion of a security impairment attributed to other non-credit related factors is recognized in other comprehensive income, net of taxes.
Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs (DAC)
Costs directly associated with the successful acquisition of mortgage insurance policies, consisting of certain selling expenses and other policy issuance and underwriting expenses, are initially deferred and reported as DAC. DAC is reviewed periodically to determine that it does not exceed recoverable amounts. DAC is amortized to expense in proportion to estimated gross profits over the life of the associated policies. We revise the rate of amortization to reflect actual experience and changes to our persistency or loss development assumptions, and may accelerate or slow such rate in future periods as experience and future changes to estimates dictate. During the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, we slowed the rate and recognized a reduction of DAC amortization by $1.3 million and $7.3 million, respectively, due to the elevated persistency of certain prior book years' insurance in-force tied to a slowdown in the pace of mortgage refinancing activity in connection with the prevailing interest and mortgage rate environment.
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