OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC. (ODFL) FY 2023 MD&A

ITEM 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

This Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations generally discusses our 2023 and 2022 results and year-to-year comparisons between 2023 and 2022. Discussions of our 2021 results and year-to-year comparisons between 2022 and 2021 that are not included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K can be found in “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Part II, Item 7 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022, which was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 22, 2023.

Overview

We are one of the largest North American less-than-truckload (“LTL”) motor carriers. We provide regional, inter-regional and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organization. Our service offerings, which include expedited transportation, are provided through an expansive network of service centers located throughout the continental United States. Through strategic alliances, we also provide LTL services throughout North America. In addition to our core LTL services, we offer a range of value-added services including container drayage, truckload brokerage and supply chain consulting. More than 98% of our revenue has historically been derived from transporting LTL shipments for our customers, whose demand for our services is generally tied to industrial production and the overall health of the U.S. domestic economy.

In analyzing the components of our revenue, we monitor changes and trends in our LTL volumes and LTL revenue per hundredweight. While LTL revenue per hundredweight is a yield measurement, it is also a commonly-used indicator for general pricing trends in the LTL industry. This yield metric is not a true measure of price, however, as it can be influenced by many other factors, such as changes in fuel surcharges, weight per shipment and length of haul. As a result, changes in revenue per hundredweight do not necessarily indicate actual changes in underlying base rates. LTL revenue per hundredweight and the key factors that can impact this metric are described in more detail below:

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LTL Revenue Per Hundredweight - Our LTL transportation services are generally priced based on weight, commodity, and distance. This measurement reflects the application of our pricing policies to the services we provide, which are influenced by competitive market conditions and our growth objectives. Generally, freight is rated by a class system, which is established by the National Motor Freight Traffic Association, Inc. Light, bulky freight typically has a higher class and is priced at higher revenue per hundredweight than dense, heavy freight. Fuel surcharges, accessorial charges, revenue adjustments and revenue for undelivered freight are included in this measurement. Revenue for undelivered freight is deferred for financial statement purposes in accordance with our revenue recognition policy; however, we believe including it in our revenue per hundredweight metrics results in a more accurate representation of the underlying changes in our yields by matching total billed revenue with the corresponding weight of those shipments.

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LTL Weight Per Shipment - Fluctuations in weight per shipment can indicate changes in the mix of freight we receive from our customers, as well as changes in the number of units included in a shipment. Generally, increases in weight per shipment indicate higher demand for our customers’ products and overall increased economic activity. Changes in weight per shipment can also be influenced by shifts between LTL and other modes of transportation, such as truckload and intermodal, in response to capacity, service and pricing issues. Fluctuations in weight per shipment generally have an inverse effect on our revenue per hundredweight, as a decrease in weight per shipment will typically cause an increase in revenue per hundredweight.

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Average Length of Haul - We consider lengths of haul less than 500 miles to be regional traffic, lengths of haul between 500 miles and 1,000 miles to be inter-regional traffic, and lengths of haul in excess of 1,000 miles to be national traffic. This metric is used to analyze our tonnage and pricing trends for shipments with similar characteristics, and also allows for comparison with other transportation providers serving specific markets. By analyzing this metric, we can determine the success and growth potential of our service products in these markets. Changes in length of haul generally have a direct effect on our revenue per hundredweight, as an increase in length of haul will typically cause an increase in revenue per hundredweight.

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LTL Revenue Per Shipment - This measurement is primarily determined by the three metrics listed above and is used in conjunction with the number of LTL shipments we receive to evaluate LTL revenue.

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Our primary revenue focus is to increase density, which is shipment and tonnage growth within our existing infrastructure. Increases in density allow us to maximize our asset utilization and labor productivity, which we measure over many different functional areas of our operations including linehaul load factor, P&D stops per hour, P&D shipments per hour, platform pounds handled per hour and platform shipments per hour. In addition to our focus on density and operating efficiencies, it is critical for us to obtain an appropriate yield, which is measured as revenue per hundredweight, on the shipments we handle to offset our cost inflation and support our ongoing investments in capacity and technology. We regularly monitor the components of our pricing, including base freight rates, accessorial charges and fuel surcharges. The fuel surcharge is generally designed to offset fluctuations in the cost of our petroleum-based products and is indexed to diesel fuel prices published by the U.S. Department of Energy, which reset each week. We believe our yield management process appropriately focuses on individual account profitability, and ongoing improvements in operating efficiencies, as key components of our ability to produce profitable growth.

Our primary cost elements are direct wages and benefits associated with the movement of freight, operating supplies and expenses, which include diesel fuel, and depreciation of our equipment fleet and service center facilities. We gauge our overall success in managing costs by monitoring our operating ratio, a measure of profitability calculated by dividing total operating expenses by revenue, which also allows for industry-wide comparisons with our competition.

We regularly upgrade our technological capabilities to improve our customer service and lower our operating costs. Our technology provides our customers with visibility of their shipments throughout our network, increases the productivity of our workforce, and provides key metrics that we use to monitor and enhance our processes.

Results of Operations

The following table sets forth, for the years indicated, expenses and other items as a percentage of revenue from operations:

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Key financial and operating metrics for 2023 and 2022 are presented below:

Our financial results for 2023 reflect continued softness in the domestic economy that contributed to the decline in our revenue. Despite the decrease in our LTL tons, we maintained a commitment to providing superior customer service to support the continued improvement in our yield. We continued to focus on controlling our costs in the low volume environment, but we continued to invest in new capacity in anticipation of long-term growth in our market share. As a result, our depreciation costs increased as a percent of revenue and contributed to the slight increase in our operating ratio to 72.0% for 2023. In addition, our net income and diluted earnings per share decreased by 10.0% and 7.6%, respectively, as compared to 2022.

Revenue

Revenue decreased $393.9 million, or 6.3%, in 2023 compared to 2022. This decrease resulted from a 9.0% decrease in LTL tonnage per day, which was primarily due to decreases in LTL shipments per day and LTL weight per shipment. This decrease in revenue was partially offset by a 3.5% increase in our LTL revenue per hundredweight. Our LTL revenue per hundredweight includes the impact of lower fuel surcharges resulting from a decline in the average price of diesel fuel for the comparable periods. Excluding fuel surcharges, LTL revenue per hundredweight increased 8.3% in 2023 as compared to 2022. We believe the increase in our LTL revenue-per-hundredweight metrics was driven by the ongoing execution of our yield management strategy, which is focused on obtaining price increases necessary to offset our cost inflation and support our continued investments in capacity and technology.

January 2024 Update

Revenue per day decreased 2.7% in January 2024 compared to the same month last year. LTL tons per day decreased 5.0%, due primarily to a 2.3% decrease in LTL shipments per day and a 2.8% decrease in LTL weight per shipment. LTL revenue per hundredweight increased 2.7% as compared to the same month last year. LTL revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharges, increased 6.7% as compared to the same month last year.

Operating Costs and Other Expenses

Salaries, wages, and benefits decreased $87.2 million, or 3.2%, in 2023 as compared to 2022, due to an $83.1 million decrease in the costs attributable to salaries and wages and a $4.1 million decrease in employee benefit costs. The decrease in salaries and wages was due primarily to decreases in the average number of active full-time employees during the year, as we balanced our workforce to align with our customers' shipping trends. Salaries and wages also decreased as a result of lower performance-based and discretionary bonus compensation. These decreases were partially offset by the annual wage increase provided to our employees at the beginning of both September 2022 and 2023.

Our productive labor costs, which include wages for drivers, platform employees, and fleet technicians, increased as a percent of revenue to 23.6% in 2023 from to 22.9% in 2022. While our platform and P&D shipments per hour and P&D stops per hour improved during 2023 as compared to 2022, our linehaul laden load average declined due to the decreased operating density associated with the decrease in our LTL tons. Our other salaries and wages as a percent of revenue remained consistent between the comparable periods.

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The cost attributable to employee benefits decreased $4.1 million, or 0.6%, in 2023 compared to 2022. Our employee benefit costs increased as a percent of salaries and wages to 37.5% in 2023 from 36.2% in 2022. The increase in employee benefit costs as a percent of salaries and wages was primarily due to an increase in our employee group health benefit costs that resulted from higher costs per claim. This increase in employee benefit costs as a percent of salaries and wages was partially offset by lower retirement benefit plan costs directly linked to our net income.

Operating supplies and expenses decreased $134.6 million, or 15.8%, in 2023 as compared to 2022, due primarily to decreases in our costs for diesel fuel used in our vehicles. The cost of diesel fuel, excluding fuel taxes, represents the largest component of operating supplies and expenses, and can vary based on both the average price per gallon and consumption. Our average cost per gallon of diesel fuel decreased 19.8% in 2023 as compared to 2022. In addition, our gallons consumed decreased 8.5% in 2023 as compared to 2022 due to a decrease in our miles driven. We do not use diesel fuel hedging instruments; therefore, our costs are subject to market price fluctuations. Our other operating supplies and expenses as a percent of revenue were generally consistent in 2023 as compared to 2022.

Depreciation and amortization increased $48.4 million, or 17.5%, in 2023 as compared to 2022. The increases in depreciation and amortization costs were due primarily to the assets acquired as part of our 2022 and 2023 capital expenditure programs. We believe depreciation costs will continue to increase in future periods based on our 2024 capital expenditure plan. While our investments in real estate, equipment, and technology can increase our short-term costs, we believe these investments are necessary to support our continued long-term growth and strategic initiatives.

Purchased transportation expense decreased $36.6 million, or 23.1%, in 2023 as compared to 2022. We primarily utilize purchased transportation services to support our LTL services to and from Canada as well as our truckload brokerage operations. We also periodically utilize purchased transportation for our domestic LTL service when we need to supplement the capacity of our workforce or fleet, which most frequently occurs during periods with significant growth. We used third-party transportation providers in our domestic linehaul network during the first half of 2022, but our utilization was normalized during the second half of 2022 when the capacity of our team was closely balanced with our volumes.

Our effective tax rate in 2023 was 24.8% as compared to 25.2% in 2022. Our effective tax rate generally exceeds the federal statutory rate due to the impact of state taxes and, to a lesser extent, certain other non-deductible items.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

A summary of our cash flows is presented below:

The change in our cash flows provided by operating activities during 2023 as compared to 2022 was due to the $137.7 million decrease in net income as well as the $33.2 million decrease in certain other working capital accounts. These decreases were partially offset by a $48.4 million increase in depreciation and amortization expense.

The change in our cash flows used in investing activities during 2023 as compared to 2022 was primarily due to the timing of purchases and maturities of short-term investments, which was partially offset by a net reduction in capital expenditures. Changes in our capital expenditures are more fully described below in “Capital Expenditures.”

The change in our cash flows used in financing activities during 2023 as compared to 2022 was primarily due to the $823.6 million decrease in funds used for repurchases of our common stock. This decrease in cash was partially offset by higher dividend payments to our shareholders and a scheduled principal payment under our long-term debt agreement. Our return of capital to shareholders is more fully described below under “Stock Repurchase Program” and “Dividends to Shareholders.” Our long-term debt agreement is more fully described below under "Financing Arrangements."

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We have four primary sources of available liquidity: cash flows from operations, our existing cash and cash equivalents, available borrowings under our third amended and restated credit agreement with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association serving as administrative agent for the lenders, dated March 22, 2023 (the “Credit Agreement”), and our Note Purchase and Private Shelf Agreement with PGIM, Inc. (“Prudential”) and certain affiliates and managed accounts of Prudential, as amended by the First Amendment dated March 22, 2023 (as amended, the “Note Agreement”). The Credit Agreement and the Note Agreement are described in more detail below under “Financing Arrangements.” We believe we also have sufficient access to debt and equity markets to provide other sources of liquidity, if needed.

Capital Expenditures

The table below sets forth our net capital expenditures for property and equipment, including those obtained through noncash transactions, for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022:

Our capital expenditures vary based upon the projected increase in the number and size of our service center facilities necessary to support our plan for long-term growth, our planned tractor and trailer replacement cycle, and forecasted tonnage and shipment growth. Expenditures for land and structures can be dependent upon the availability of land in the geographic areas where we are looking to expand. We historically spend 10% to 15% of our revenue on capital expenditures each year. We expect to continue to maintain a high level of capital expenditures in order to support our long-term plan for market share growth.

We currently estimate capital expenditures will be approximately $750 million for the year ending December 31, 2024. Approximately $350 million is allocated for the purchase of service center facilities, construction of new service center facilities or expansion of existing service center facilities, subject to the availability of suitable real estate and the timing of construction projects; approximately $325 million is allocated for the purchase of tractors and trailers; and approximately $75 million is allocated for investments in technology and other assets. We expect to fund these capital expenditures primarily through cash flows from operations, our existing cash and cash equivalents and, if needed, borrowings available under the Credit Agreement or Note Agreement. We believe our current sources of liquidity will be sufficient to satisfy our expected capital expenditures for the next twelve months and in the longer term.

Stock Repurchase Program

On July 28, 2021, we announced that our Board of Directors had approved a stock repurchase program authorizing us to repurchase up to an aggregate of $2.0 billion of our outstanding common stock (the “2021 Repurchase Program”). The 2021 Repurchase Program, which does not have an expiration date, began after completion of our prior repurchase program in January 2022.

On July 26, 2023, we announced that our Board of Directors had approved a new stock repurchase program authorizing us to repurchase up to an aggregate of $3.0 billion of our outstanding common stock. The new repurchase program, which does not have an expiration date, will be effective upon the completion of our 2021 Repurchase Program. At December 31, 2023, our 2021 Repurchase Program had $225.4 million remaining authorized.

Under our repurchase programs, we may repurchase shares from time to time in open market purchases or through privately negotiated transactions. Shares of our common stock repurchased under our repurchase programs are canceled at the time of repurchase and are classified as authorized but unissued shares of our common stock.

Dividends to Shareholders

Our Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.40 per share for each quarter of 2023 and declared a cash dividend of $0.30 per share for each quarter of 2022.

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On January 31, 2024, we announced that our Board of Directors had declared a cash dividend of $0.52 per share of our common stock. The dividend is payable on March 20, 2024 to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 6, 2024. Although we intend to pay a quarterly cash dividend on our common stock for the foreseeable future, the declaration and amount of any future dividend is subject to approval by our Board of Directors, and is restricted by applicable state law limitations on distributions to shareholders as well as certain covenants under our Credit Agreement and Note Agreement. We anticipate that any future quarterly cash dividends will be funded through cash flows from operations, our existing cash and cash equivalents, and, if needed, borrowings under our Credit Agreement or Note Agreement.

On February 16, 2024, we announced that our Board of Directors approved a two-for-one split of our common stock for shareholders of record as of the close of business on the record date of March 13, 2024. The additional shares will be distributed by our transfer agent, Computershare Trust Company, N.A., on March 27, 2024.

Financing Agreements

Note Agreement

The Note Agreement, which is uncommitted and subject to Prudential’s sole discretion, provides for the issuance of senior promissory notes with an aggregate principal amount of up to $350.0 million through March 22, 2026. On May 4, 2020, we issued $100.0 million aggregate principal amount of senior promissory notes (the “Series B Notes”). Borrowing availability under the Note Agreement is reduced by the outstanding amount of the existing Series B Notes, and all other senior promissory notes issued pursuant to the Note Agreement.

The Series B Notes bear interest at 3.10% per annum and mature on May 4, 2027, unless prepaid. Our first principal payment of $20.0 million was paid on May 4, 2023. The remaining $80.0 million will be paid in four equal annual installments of $20.0 million through May 4, 2027. The Series B Notes are senior unsecured obligations and rank pari passu with borrowings under the Credit Agreement or other senior promissory notes issued pursuant to the Note Agreement.

Credit Agreement

The Credit Agreement provides for a five-year, $250.0 million senior unsecured revolving line of credit and a $150.0 million accordion feature, which if fully exercised and approved, would expand the total borrowing capacity up to an aggregate of $400.0 million. Of the $250.0 million line of credit commitments under the Credit Agreement, up to $100.0 million may be used for letters of credit.

At our option, borrowings under the Credit Agreement bear interest at either: (i) the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) plus the Term SOFR Adjustment, as defined in the Credit Agreement, equal to 0.100%, plus an applicable margin that ranges from 1.000% to 1.375%; or (ii) a Base Rate, as defined in the Credit Agreement, plus an applicable margin that ranges from 0.000% to 0.375%. The applicable margin for each of the foregoing options is dependent upon our consolidated debt to consolidated total capitalization ratio. Letter of credit fees equal to the applicable margin for SOFR loans are charged quarterly in arrears on the daily average aggregate stated amount of all letters of credit outstanding during the quarter. Commitment fees ranging from 0.090% to 0.175% (based upon our consolidated debt to consolidated total capitalization ratio) are charged quarterly in arrears on the aggregate unutilized portion of the Credit Agreement.

For periods covered under the Credit Agreement, the applicable margin on SOFR loans and letter of credit fees were 1.000% and commitment fees were 0.090%.

The Credit Agreement replaced our previous five-year, $250.0 million senior unsecured revolving credit agreement dated as of November 21, 2019 (the “Prior Credit Agreement”). For periods in 2023 and 2022 covered under the Prior Credit Agreement, the applicable margin on LIBOR loans and letter of credit fees was 1.000% and commitment fees were 0.100%.

The amounts outstanding and available borrowing capacity under the Credit Agreement are presented below:

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General Debt Provisions

The Credit Agreement and Note Agreement contain customary covenants, including financial covenants that require us to observe a maximum ratio of debt to total capital and a minimum fixed charge coverage ratio. The Credit Agreement and Note Agreement also include a provision limiting our ability to make restricted payments, including dividends and payments for share repurchases, unless, among other conditions, no defaults or events of default are ongoing (or would be caused by such restricted payment). We were in compliance with all covenants in our outstanding debt instruments for the period ended December 31, 2023.

We do not anticipate financial performance that would cause us to violate any such covenants in the future, and we believe the combination of our existing Credit Agreement and Note Agreement along with our additional borrowing capacity will be sufficient to meet foreseeable seasonal and long-term capital needs.

The interest rate is fixed on the Series B Notes. Therefore, short-term exposure to fluctuations in interest rates is limited to our Credit Agreement. We do not currently use interest rate derivative instruments to manage exposure to interest rate changes.

Contractual Obligations

The following table summarizes our significant contractual obligations as of December 31, 2023:

(1)
Contractual obligations include principal and interest on our Series B Notes; leases consisting primarily of real estate and automotive leases; and purchase obligations relating to non-cancellable purchase orders for (i) equipment scheduled for delivery in 2024, and (ii) information technology agreements.

(2)
Lease payments include lease extensions that are reasonably certain to be exercised.

Critical Accounting Policies

In preparing our financial statements, we apply the following critical accounting policies that we believe affect our judgments and estimates of amounts recorded in certain assets, liabilities, revenue and expenses. These critical accounting policies, which are those that have, or are reasonably likely to have, a material impact on our financial condition or results of operations, are further described in Note 1 of the Notes to the Financial Statements included in Item 8 of this report.

Revenue Recognition

Our revenue is generated from providing transportation and related services to customers in accordance with the bill of lading (“BOL”) contract, our general tariff provisions and contractual agreements. Generally, our performance obligations begin when we receive a BOL from a customer and are satisfied when we complete the delivery of a shipment and related services. We recognize revenue for our performance obligations under our customer contracts over time, as our customers receive the benefits of our services in accordance with Accounting Standards Codification (“ASC”) Topic 606, Revenue from Contracts with Customers ("ASC Topic 606"). With respect to services not completed at the end of a reporting period, we use a percentage of completion method to allocate the appropriate revenue to each separate reporting period. Under this method, we develop a factor for each uncompleted shipment by dividing the actual number of days in transit at the end of a reporting period by that shipment’s standard delivery time schedule. This factor is applied to the total revenue for that shipment and revenue is allocated between reporting periods accordingly. A hypothetical change of 10% in our percentage of completion estimate would not have a material effect on our recorded revenue.

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Property and Equipment

Property and equipment are recorded at cost and depreciated on a straight-line basis over their estimated economic lives. We use historical experience, certain assumptions and estimates in determining the economic life of each asset. When indicators of impairment exist, we review property and equipment for impairment due to changes in operational and market conditions, and we adjust the carrying value and economic life of any impaired asset as appropriate.

Estimated economic lives for structures are 7 to 30 years, revenue equipment is 4 to 15 years, other equipment is 2 to 20 years, and leasehold improvements are the lesser of the economic life of the leasehold improvement or the remaining life of the lease. The use of different assumptions, estimates or significant changes in the resale market for our equipment could result in material changes in the carrying value and related depreciation of our assets. Depreciation expense in 2023 totaled $324.0 million. A hypothetical change of 1% in the estimated useful lives of all depreciable assets would not have a material impact on our financial results.

Claims and Insurance Accruals

Claims and insurance accruals reflect the estimated cost of various claims, including those related to bodily injury/property damage (“BIPD”) and workers’ compensation. All related costs associated with BIPD claims are charged to insurance and claims expense, and all related costs associated with workers’ compensation claims are charged to employee benefits expense.

Insurers providing excess coverage above a company’s self-insured retention or deductible levels typically adjust their premiums to cover insured losses and for other market factors. As a result, we periodically evaluate our self-insured retention and deductible levels to determine the most cost-efficient balance between our exposure and excess coverage.

In establishing accruals for claims and expenses, we evaluate and monitor each claim individually, and we use factors such as historical claims development experience, known trends and third-party actuarial estimates to determine the appropriate reserves for potential liabilities. We believe the assumptions and methods used to estimate these liabilities are reasonable; however, any changes in the severity or number of reported claims, significant changes in medical costs and regulatory changes affecting the administration of our plans could significantly impact the determination of appropriate reserves in future periods. Our accrued liability for insurance, BIPD claims, and workers’ compensation claims totaled $127.0 million and $129.6 million at December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. Claims and insurance accruals are discussed further in Note 1 of the Notes to the Financial Statements included in Item 8 of this report.

Inflation

Most of our expenses are affected by inflation, which typically results in increased operating costs. In response to fluctuations in the cost of petroleum products, particularly diesel fuel, we generally include a fuel surcharge in our tariffs and contractual agreements. The fuel surcharge is designed to offset the cost of diesel fuel above a base price and fluctuates as diesel fuel prices change from the base, which is generally indexed to the DOE’s published fuel prices that reset each week. Volatility in the price of diesel fuel has impacted our business, as described in this report. However, we do not believe inflation has had a material adverse effect on our results of operations for any of the past three years.

Related Party Transactions

Family Relationships

John R. Congdon, Jr., a member of our Board of Directors, is the cousin of David S. Congdon, Executive Chairman of our Board of Directors. We regularly disclose the amount of compensation that we pay to these individuals, as well as the compensation paid to any of their family members employed by us that from time to time may require disclosure, in the proxy statement for our Annual Meeting of Shareholders.

Audit Committee Approval

The Audit Committee of our Board of Directors reviews and approves all related person transactions in accordance with our Related Person Transactions Policy.

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