HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (THG) FY 2023 MD&A

Management’s discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations are based upon our consolidated financial statements. These statements have been prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP, which requires us to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amount of revenues and expenses during the reporting period. Actual results could differ from those estimates. The following critical accounting estimates are those which we believe affect the more significant judgments and estimates used in the preparation of our financial statements. Additional information about other significant accounting policies and estimates may be found in Note 1 – “Summary of Significant Accounting Policies” in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

RESERVE FOR LOSSES AND LOSS EXPENSES

See “Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses” within “Results of Operations – Segments” for a discussion of our critical accounting estimates for loss reserves.

REINSURANCE RECOVERABLE BALANCES

See “Reinsurance Recoverables” in Part I – Item 1 for information on our reinsurance recoverable balances.

PENSION BENEFIT OBLIGATIONS

We currently have a qualified defined benefit plan and several smaller non–qualified benefit plans. In order to measure the liabilities and expenses associated with these plans, we must make various estimates and key assumptions, including discount rates used to value liabilities, assumed rates of return on plan assets, employee turnover rates and anticipated mortality rates. These estimates and assumptions are reviewed at least annually and are based on our historical experience, as well as current facts and circumstances. In addition, we use outside actuaries to assist in measuring the liabilities and expenses associated with our defined benefit pension plan.

Two significant assumptions used in the determination of benefit plan obligations and expenses that are dependent on market factors, which have been subject to a greater level of volatility in recent years, are the discount rate and the return on plan asset assumptions. The discount rate enables us to state expected future benefit payments as a present value on the measurement date. We also use this discount rate in the determination of our pre-tax pension expense or benefit. A higher discount rate decreases the present value of benefit obligations and decreases pension expense. We determined our discount rate for the qualified benefit plan utilizing independent yield curves which provide for a portfolio of high quality bonds that are expected to match the cash flows of our pension plans. Bond information used in the yield curve included only those rated Aa or better as of December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively, and had been rated by at least two well-known rating agencies. The discount rates used to value liabilities in our qualified pension plan were 5.75% and 6.00% as of December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively.

To determine the expected long-term return on plan assets, we generally consider historical mean returns by asset class for passive indexed strategies, as well as current and expected asset allocations, and adjust for certain factors that we believe will have an impact on future returns. Actual returns on plan assets in any given year seldom result in the achievement of the expected rate of return on assets. Actual returns on plan assets in excess of these expected returns will generally reduce our net actuarial losses (or increase actuarial gains) that are reflected in the accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) balance in shareholders’ equity, whereas actual returns on plan assets that are less than expected returns will generally increase our net actuarial losses (or decrease actuarial gains) that are reflected in accumulated other comprehensive income (loss). These gains or losses are amortized into expense in future years. The qualified benefit plan held assets consisting of approximately 90% fixed maturities and 10% equity securities at December 31, 2023.

The expected return on asset assumption was 6.25% in 2023 and 3.75% in 2022. Asset returns are reflected net of administrative expenses.

Net actuarial gains related to the qualified benefit plan of $3.3 million and net actuarial losses of $12.5 million were reflected as changes to accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) in 2023 and 2022, respectively. Net actuarial gains in 2023 resulted from changes in participant-related assumptions, partially offset by a decrease in the discount rate. Net actuarial losses in 2022 resulted from lower than expected investment returns during the year, partially offset by an increase in the discount rate. In 2023 and 2022, amortization of actuarial losses from prior years was $7.8 million and $4.4 million, respectively.

Expenses related to our qualified benefit plan are generally calculated based upon information available at the beginning of the plan year. Our pre-tax expense related to our qualified benefit plan was $6.2 million for 2023 compared to a pre-tax benefit of $1.5 million for 2022.

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Holding all other assumptions constant, sensitivity to changes in our key assumptions related to our qualified benefit plan is as follows:

INVESTMENT CREDIT LOSSES

We evaluate our fixed maturity securities and mortgage loan participations for expected credit losses and we monitor the sufficiency of our credit loss allowance using both quantitative and qualitative considerations which are subject to risks and uncertainties, as follows.

We monitor corporate fixed maturity securities with unrealized losses on a quarterly basis, and more frequently when necessary, to identify potential credit deterioration, as evidenced by ratings downgrades, unexpected price variances, and/or company- or industry-specific concerns. We apply consistent standards of credit analysis, which includes determining whether the issuer is current on its contractual payments, and we consider past events, current conditions and reasonable and supportable forecasts to evaluate whether we expect to recover the entire amortized cost basis of the security. We utilize valuation declines as a potential indicator of credit deterioration and apply additional levels of scrutiny in our analysis as the severity of the decline increases.

For our impairment review of asset-backed fixed maturity securities, we forecast our best estimate of the prospective future cash flows of the security to determine if we expect to recover the entire amortized cost basis of the security. Our analysis includes estimates of underlying collateral default rates based on historical and projected delinquency rates and estimates of the amount and timing of potential recovery. We consider available information relevant to the collectability of cash flows, including information about the payment terms of the security, prepayment speeds, the financial condition of the underlying borrowers, collateral trustee reports, credit ratings analysis and other market data when developing our estimate of the expected cash flows.

For mortgage loan participations, we estimate credit losses by considering risk ratings which are based on property characteristics including geographical markets, loan-to-value and debt service coverage ratios, and risk factors associated with property type.

We cannot provide assurance that the impairments will be adequate to cover future losses or that we will not have substantial additional impairments in the future. See Note 2 – “Investments” and Note 3 – “Investment Income and Gains and Losses” in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for further discussion regarding securities in an unrealized loss position and impairments.

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STATUTORY SURPLUS OF INSURANCE SUBSIDIARIES

The following table reflects statutory surplus for our insurance subsidiaries:

The statutory capital and surplus for our insurance subsidiaries decreased $47.7 million during 2023. This decrease was primarily driven by the payment of a $100.0 million dividend to its parent company, partially offset by underwriting profits.

The NAIC prescribes an annual calculation regarding risk based capital (“RBC”). RBC ratios for regulatory purposes, as described in the glossary, are expressed as a percentage of the capital required to be above the Authorized Control Level (the “Regulatory Scale”); however, in the insurance industry, RBC ratios are widely expressed as a percentage of the Company Action Level. The following table reflects the Company Action Level, the Authorized Control Level and RBC ratios for Hanover Insurance (which includes Citizens and other insurance subsidiaries), as of December 31, 2023 and 2022, expressed both on the Industry Scale (Total Adjusted Capital divided by the Company Action Level) and Regulatory Scale (Total Adjusted Capital divided by Authorized Control Level):

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LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

Liquidity is a measure of our ability to generate sufficient cash flows to meet the cash requirements of business operations. As a holding company, our primary ongoing source of cash is dividends from our insurance subsidiaries. However, dividend payments to us by our insurance subsidiaries are subject to limitations imposed by regulators, such as prior notice periods and the requirement that dividends in excess of a specified percentage of statutory surplus or prior year’s statutory earnings receive prior approval (so called “extraordinary dividends”). Hanover Insurance paid $100.0 million in dividends, which were provided to the holding company in both 2023 and 2022.

Sources of cash for our insurance subsidiaries primarily consist of premiums collected, investment income and maturing investments. Primary cash outflows are payments for losses and loss adjustment expenses, policy and contract acquisition expenses, other underwriting expenses, and investment purchases. Cash outflows related to losses and loss adjustment expenses can be variable because of uncertainties surrounding settlement dates for liabilities for unpaid losses and because of the potential for large losses, either individually or in the aggregate. We periodically adjust our investment policy to respond to changes in short-term and long-term cash requirements.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $361.7 million during 2023 compared to $722.3 million during 2022. The $360.6 million decrease in cash provided in 2023 compared to 2022 was primarily due to an increase in loss and LAE payments, primarily related to catastrophe losses, partially offset by an increase in premiums and, to a lesser extent, federal income tax refunds received in 2023 compared to federal income tax payments made during 2022.

Net cash used in investing activities was $228.5 million during 2023 compared to $507.6 million during 2022. During 2023 and 2022, cash used in investing activities primarily related to net purchases of fixed maturities, partially offset by net sales of equity securities.

Net cash used in financing activities was $122.1 million during 2023 compared to $140.6 million during 2022. During 2023, cash used in financing activities primarily resulted from quarterly dividend payments to our shareholders. During 2022, cash used in financing activities primarily resulted from the payment of quarterly dividends to shareholders and, to a lesser extent, from repurchases of common stock through the open market.

Dividends to common shareholders are subject to quarterly board approval and declaration. During 2023, we paid dividends that totaled $117.2 million. This included three quarterly dividends of $0.81 per share and one quarterly dividend of $0.85 per share. We believe that our holding company assets are sufficient to provide for future shareholder dividends should the Board of Directors declare them.

At December 31, 2023, THG, as a holding company, held approximately $321.9 million of fixed maturities and cash. We believe our holding company assets will be sufficient to meet our short-term obligations, which we expect to consist primarily of quarterly dividends to our shareholders (as and to the extent declared), interest on our senior and subordinated debentures, certain costs associated with benefits due to our former life employees and agents and, to the extent required, payments related to indemnification of liabilities associated with the sale of various subsidiaries. As discussed below, we have, and opportunistically may continue to, repurchase our common stock and debt. We do not expect that it will be necessary to dividend additional funds from our insurance subsidiaries in order to fund short-term holding company obligations; however, we may decide to do so.

We expect to continue to generate sufficient positive operating cash to meet all short-term and long-term cash requirements relating to current operations, including the funding of our qualified defined benefit pension plan. We believe that this plan is fully funded. The ultimate payment amounts for our benefit plan is based on several assumptions including, but not limited to, the rate of return on plan assets, the discount rate for benefit obligations, mortality experience, interest crediting rates, inflation and the ultimate valuation and determination of benefit obligations. Since differences between actual plan experience and our assumptions are almost certain, changes, both positive and negative, to our current funding status and ultimately our obligations in future periods are likely.

Our insurance subsidiaries maintain a high degree of liquidity within their respective investment portfolios in fixed maturity and short-term investments. During 2023, the uncertainty in the financial markets continued to impact the value of investments, including many securities currently held by THG and its subsidiaries. We believe that the quality of the assets we hold will allow us to realize the long-term economic value of our portfolio, including the securities that are currently in an unrealized loss position. We do not anticipate the need to sell these securities to meet our insurance subsidiaries’ cash requirements since we expect our insurance subsidiaries to generate sufficient operating cash to meet all short-term and long-term cash requirements relating to current operations. However, unforeseen business needs or other items may occur which could cause us to sell those securities in a loss position before their values fully recover, resulting in a recognition of impairment charges in that time period.

The Board of Directors authorized a stock repurchase program which provides for aggregate repurchases of our common stock of up to $1.3 billion. Under the repurchase authorization, we may repurchase, from time to time, common stock in amounts, at prices and at such times as we deem appropriate, subject to market conditions and other considerations. Repurchases may be executed using open market purchases, privately negotiated transactions, accelerated repurchase programs or other transactions. We are not required to purchase any specific number of shares or to make purchases by any certain date under this program. During 2023, we did not repurchase any shares under this program. As of December 31, 2023, we had repurchased 7.9 million shares under this $1.3 billion program and had approximately $330 million available for additional repurchases.

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We maintain our membership in the Federal Home Loan Bank (“FHLB”) to provide access to additional liquidity based on our holdings of FHLB stock and pledged collateral. At December 31, 2023, we had borrowing capacity of $128.9 million. There were no outstanding borrowings under this short-term facility at December 31, 2023; however, we have borrowed and may continue to borrow, from time to time, through this facility to provide short-term liquidity.

On July 21, 2023, we entered into a credit agreement that provides for a five-year unsecured revolving credit facility not to exceed $150.0 million at any one time outstanding, with the option to increase the facility up to $300.0 million (assuming no default and satisfaction of other specified conditions, including the receipt of additional lender commitments). The agreement also includes an uncommitted subfacility of $50.0 million for standby letters of credit. Borrowings, if any, under this agreement are unsecured and incur interest at a rate per annum equal to, at our election, either (i) the greatest of, (a) the prime commercial lending rate of the administrative agent, (b) the NYFRB Rate plus half a percent, or (c) the one month Adjusted Term SOFR Rate plus one percent; each subject to a margin that ranges from 0.125% to 0.625% depending on our debt rating, or (ii) Adjusted SOFR Rate for the applicable interest period, plus a margin that ranges from 1.125% to 1.625% depending on our debt rating. The agreement also contains certain financial covenants such as maintenance of specified levels of consolidated equity and leverage ratios. Concurrent with our entry into this agreement, we voluntarily terminated our existing $200.0 million credit agreement, dated April 30, 2019. We currently have no borrowings under the current credit agreement. During 2023, we had no borrowings under the current agreement or the prior credit agreement. For additional information regarding the current credit agreement, please see our Current Report filed on Form 8-K with the SEC on July 21, 2023.

At December 31, 2023, we were in compliance with the covenants of our debt and credit agreements.

FINANCING OBLIGATIONS AND OTHER ESTIMATED OPERATING PAYMENTS

Financing obligations generally include repayment of our senior debentures, subordinated debentures and lease payments. Annual payments are related to the contractual principal and interest payments of these financing obligations as of December 31, 2023, unless otherwise noted, and lease payments reflect expected cash payments based upon active lease terms. It is expected that in the normal course of business, leases that expire will generally be renewed or replaced by leases on similar property and equipment. In addition, as discussed below, we expect payments related to our loss and LAE obligations, payments in support of the obligations of our benefit plans and for commitments to purchase investment securities at a future date. Actual payments may differ from the contractual and/or estimated payments.

Our debt obligations include senior debentures of $61.8 million due in 2025, which pay an annual interest rate of 7.625%, senior debentures of $375.0 million due in 2026, which pay annual interest at a rate of 4.50%, and senior debentures of $300.0 million due in 2030, which pay annual interest at a rate of 2.50%. Additionally, we carry subordinated debentures of $50.1 million due in 2027, which pay interest at an annual rate of 8.207%. Interest associated with this debt includes $33.2 million due in one year or less and $85.3 million due after one year.

Our subsidiaries are lessees with a number of leases, consisting primarily of equipment, real estate and fleet vehicles. Our lease obligations include $16.1 million due in one year or less and $28.5 million due after one year.

We currently have obligations to pay benefits under our qualified and non-qualified defined benefit pension and post-retirement benefit plans. We do not expect to make any significant contributions to our qualified plan in order to meet our minimum funding requirements for the next several years; however, additional contributions may be required in the future based on the level of pension assets and liabilities in future periods. Estimated payments to be made for non-qualified pension, postretirement, and postemployment benefits totaled $3.8 million due in one year or less and $23.7 million due after one year. These estimated payments extend until 2033; however, it is likely that payments will be required beyond 2033. Estimates of these payments and the payment patterns are based upon historical experience. The ultimate payment amount for our pension and postretirement benefit plans is based on several assumptions, including, but not limited to, the rate of return on plan assets, the discount rate for benefit obligations, mortality experience, interest crediting rates and then ultimate valuation of benefit obligations. Differences between actual plan experience and our assumptions are likely and will likely result in changes to our funding obligations in future periods.

Our investment commitments relate primarily to limited partnerships and were $57.0 million due in one year or less and $85.2 million due after one year.

Unlike many other forms of contractual obligations, loss and LAE reserves do not have definitive due dates and the ultimate payment dates are subject to a number of variables and uncertainties. The total gross loss and LAE reserve payments expected to be made in one year or less of $2,546.4 million and after one year of $4,691.9 million are estimates based principally on historical experience.

CONTINGENCIES AND REGULATORY MATTERS

Information regarding litigation and legal contingencies appears in Note 15 – “Commitments and Contingencies” in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. Information related to certain regulatory and industry developments are contained in “Regulation” in Part I – Item 1 and in “Risk Factors” in Part I – Item 1A.

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