ARMSTRONG WORLD INDUSTRIES INC (AWI) FY 2022 MD&A

ITEM 7. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (“AWI”) is a Pennsylvania corporation incorporated in 1891.

This discussion should be read in conjunction with the financial statements, the accompanying notes, the cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements and risk factors included in this Form 10-K.

Overview

AWI is a leader in the design, innovation and manufacture of ceiling and wall solutions in the Americas. Our products primarily include mineral fiber, fiberglass wool, metal, wood, wood fiber, glass-reinforced-gypsum and felt. We also manufacture ceiling suspension system (grid) products through a joint venture with Worthington Industries, Inc. (“Worthington”) called Worthington Armstrong Venture (“WAVE”).

COVID-19

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our future consolidated results of operations remains uncertain. During 2020, we noted delays in construction driven by temporary closures of non-essential businesses, with the most significant impacts in certain major metropolitan areas impacted by COVID-19. Beginning in 2021, market conditions began to improve as the impact of the pandemic lessened. Throughout 2022, our results of operations continued to be impacted by delays in construction starts and extended project timelines, in addition to higher inflation, all of which were related, in part, to the pandemic and subsequent recovery. We continue to monitor and manage the impact of COVID-19 and its potential impacts to our business.

In an effort to operate safely and responsibly, we continue to follow guidelines from governmental health authorities across all our facilities. As of December 31, 2022, all of our manufacturing facilities were operational, excluding our St. Helens, Oregon facility which was idled in the second quarter of 2018.

We did not record any asset impairments, inventory charges or material bad debt reserves related to COVID-19 during 2022, 2021 or 2020, although future events may require such charges. We will continue to evaluate the nature and extent of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.

Acquisitions

In November 2022, we acquired the business and assets of GC Products, Inc. (“GC Products”), based in Lincoln, CA. GC Products is a designer and manufacturer of glass-reinforced-gypsum, glass-reinforced-cement, molded ceiling and specialty wall products with one manufacturing facility.

In December 2020, we acquired all issued and outstanding equity of Arktura LLC (“Arktura”) and certain subsidiaries with operations in the United States and Argentina. Arktura is a designer and fabricator of metal and felt ceilings, walls, partitions and facades with one manufacturing facility based in Los Angeles, California.

In August 2020, we acquired the business and assets of Moz Designs, Inc. (“Moz”), based in Oakland, California. Moz is a designer and fabricator of custom architectural metal ceilings, walls, dividers and column covers for interior and exterior applications with one manufacturing facility.

In July 2020, we acquired all issued and outstanding capital stock of TURF Design, Inc. (“Turf”), with one manufacturing facility in Elgin, Illinois and a design center in Chicago, Illinois. Turf is a designer and manufacturer of acoustic felt ceilings and wall products.

The operations, assets and liabilities of these acquisitions are included in our Architectural Specialties segment.

Manufacturing Plants

As of December 31, 2022, we operated 17 manufacturing plants, including 15 plants located within the U.S. and two plants in Canada. This includes our St. Helens, Oregon mineral fiber manufacturing plant, which was closed in the second quarter of 2018. The facility was classified as an asset held for sale as of December 31, 2022.

WAVE operates seven additional plants in the U.S. to produce suspension system (grid) products, which we use and sell in our ceiling systems.

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Reportable Segments

Our operating segments are as follows: Mineral Fiber, Architectural Specialties and Unallocated Corporate.

Mineral Fiber – produces suspended mineral fiber and soft fiber ceiling systems. Our mineral fiber products offer various performance attributes such as acoustical control, rated fire protection, aesthetic appeal, and health and sustainability features. Ceiling products are sold to resale distributors, ceiling systems contractors and wholesalers and retailers (including large home centers). The Mineral Fiber segment also includes the results of WAVE, which manufactures and sells suspension system (grid) products and ceiling component products that are invoiced by both AWI and WAVE. Segment results relating to WAVE consist primarily of equity earnings and reflect our 50% equity interest in the joint venture. Ceiling component products consist of ceiling perimeters and trim, in addition to grid products that support drywall ceiling systems. For some customers, WAVE sells its suspension systems products to AWI for resale to customers. Mineral Fiber segment results reflect those sales transactions. The Mineral Fiber segment also includes all assets and liabilities not specifically allocated to our Architectural Specialties or Unallocated Corporate segment, including all property and related depreciation associated with our Lancaster, PA headquarters. Operating results for the Mineral Fiber segment include a significant majority of allocated Corporate administrative expenses that represent a reasonable allocation of general services to support its operations.

Architectural Specialties – produces, designs and sources ceilings and walls for use in commercial settings. Products are available in numerous materials, such as metal, felt and wood, in addition to various colors, shapes and designs. Products offer various performance attributes such as acoustical control, rated fire protection and aesthetic appeal. We sell standard, premium and customized products, a portion of which are derived from sourced products. Architectural Specialties products are sold primarily to resale distributors and direct customers, primarily ceiling systems contractors. The majority of this segment's revenues are project driven, which can lead to more volatile sales patterns due to project scheduling uncertainty. Operating results for the Architectural Specialties segment include a portion of allocated Corporate administrative expenses that represent a reasonable allocation of general services to support its operations.

Unallocated Corporate – includes certain assets, liabilities, income and expenses that have not been allocated to our other business segments and consists of: cash and cash equivalents, the net funded status of our U.S. Retirement Income Plan (“RIP”), the estimated fair value of interest rate swap contracts, outstanding borrowings under our senior secured credit facility and income tax balances. Our Unallocated Corporate segment also includes all expenses related to our German defined benefit pension plan that was formerly reported in our Europe, Middle East and Africa (including Russia) (“EMEA”) and Pacific Rim segments and was not included in the sale of certain subsidiaries comprising our businesses and operations in EMEA and the Pacific Rim, including the corresponding businesses and operations conducted by WAVE (collectively, the "Sale") to Knauf International GmbH (“Knauf”) in 2019.

Factors Affecting Revenues

For information on our segments’ 2022 net sales by geography, see Note 3 to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Form 10-K. For information on our segments’ 2022 net sales disaggregated by major customer groups, see Note 4 to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Form 10-K.

Markets. We compete in the building product construction markets of the Americas. We closely monitor publicly available macroeconomic trends that provide insight into commercial construction market activity, including, but not limited to, GDP, office vacancy rates, the Architecture Billings Index, new commercial construction starts, state and local government spending, corporate profits and retail sales. The company continues to monitor the impacts of global events, including the conflict in Ukraine, which due to our Americas-only geography, had minimal direct impact on our results of operations in 2022.

We noted several factors and trends within our markets that directly affected our business performance during 2022 compared to 2021, most importantly the elongated economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic combined with on-going challenges to global supply chains and labor availability, as well as to the impact of higher inflation. During the second half of 2022, we experienced market demand weakening and further project delays. These impacts were most pronounced for our Mineral Fiber segment, while our results benefited from improved performance within our Architectural Specialties segment, primarily driven by our 2020 acquisitions. During 2022, increased sales volumes contributed $33 million to revenue compared to 2021.

Average Unit Value. We periodically modify sales prices of our products due to changes in costs for raw materials and energy, market conditions and the competitive environment. Typically, realized price increases are less than announced price increases because of project pricing, competitive adjustments and changing market conditions. We also offer a wide assortment of products that are differentiated by style, design and performance attributes. Pricing and margins for products within the assortment vary. In addition, changes in the relative quantity of products purchased at different price points can impact year-to-year comparisons of net sales and operating income. Within our Mineral Fiber segment, we focus on improving sales dollars per unit sold, or average unit value (“AUV”), as a measure that accounts for the varying assortment of products and like-for-like pricing impacting our revenues. We

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estimate that favorable AUV increased our total consolidated net sales for 2022 by approximately $94 million compared to 2021. Our Architectural Specialties segment revenues are primarily earned based on individual contracts that include a mix of products, both manufactured by us and sourced from third parties, which varies by project. As such, we do not track AUV performance for this segment, but rather attribute most changes in sales to volume.

During each quarter of 2022, we implemented price increases on Mineral Fiber ceiling, grid products and certain Architectural Specialties products. In the fourth quarter of 2022, we also announced price increases on Mineral Fiber ceiling, grid products and certain Architectural Specialties products that became effective in the first quarter of 2023. We may implement future pricing actions based on numerous factors, namely the rate and pace of inflation impact on our business.

Seasonality. Historically, our sales have been stronger in the second and the third quarters of our fiscal year due to more favorable weather conditions, customer business cycles and the timing of renovation and new construction.

Factors Affecting Operating Costs

Operating Expenses. Our operating expenses are comprised of direct production costs (principally raw materials, labor and energy), manufacturing overhead costs, freight, costs to purchase sourced products and selling, general, and administrative (“SG&A”) expenses.

Our largest raw material expenditures are primarily for fiberglass, perlite, recycled paper and starch. Other raw materials include aluminum, clays, felt, pigment, steel, wood and wood fiber. We manufacture most of our mineral wool needs at one of our manufacturing facilities. Natural gas and packaging materials are also significant input costs. Fluctuations in the prices of these inputs are generally beyond our control and have a direct impact on our financial results. Global supply chain and labor disruptions have contributed to raw material, energy and transportation cost inflation. In 2022, higher costs for raw materials and energy negatively impacted operating income by $34 million compared to 2021. In addition, higher costs to transport goods to customers in 2022 resulted in a $6 million negative impact to operating income compared to 2021.

2020 Acquisition-Related Expenses and Losses (Gains)

In connection with our 2020 acquisitions of Turf, Moz and Arktura, we recorded certain acquisition-related expenses and losses (gains) to operating income in 2022, 2021 and 2020, summarized as follows (dollar amounts in millions):

The deferred revenue and inventory amounts above reflect the post-acquisition expenses associated with recording these liabilities and assets at fair value as part of purchase accounting. The change in fair value of contingent consideration is related to our Moz and Turf acquisitions and was remeasured quarterly during each acquisition's respective earn-out period. See Note 19 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for further information. Expenses related to the deferred cash and restricted stock awards for Arktura’s former owners and employees are recorded over their respective service periods, as such payments are subject to the awardees’ continued employment with AWI. Depreciation of fixed assets acquired and amortization of intangible assets acquired have been excluded from the table above. See Note 5 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for further information.

RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

This section of this Form 10-K generally discusses 2022 and 2021 items and year-to-year comparisons between 2022 and 2021. Discussions of year-to-year comparisons between 2021 and 2020 that are not included in this Form 10-K can be found in Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations in Item 7 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021.

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Please refer to Notes 3 and 6 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for a reconciliation of segment operating income to consolidated earnings from continuing operations before income taxes and additional financial information related to discontinued operations.

2022 COMPARED TO 2021

CONSOLIDATED RESULTS FROM CONTINUING OPERATIONS

(dollar amounts in millions)

Consolidated net sales increased 11.4% with favorable AUV contributing $94 million and higher volumes contributing $33 million. Mineral Fiber net sales increased $69 million year-over-year and Architectural Specialties net sales increased $58 million. The increase in Mineral Fiber segment net sales was driven by improved AUV which was partially offset by lower volumes. Favorable AUV was driven by increased like-for-like pricing, partially offset by negative customer channel mix. Lower volumes resulted primarily from a reduction of inventory levels at certain customers in the first half of 2022, in addition to weakening market demand in the second half of the year. Architectural Specialties segment net sales increased due to broad based growth across our product categories.

Cost of goods sold was 63.6% of net sales in 2022, compared to 63.3% in 2021. The increase in cost of goods sold as a percent of net sales was driven by higher raw material, energy and freight inflation, partially offset by favorable AUV performance and improved manufacturing productivity.

SG&A expenses in 2022 were $237.0 million, or 19.2% of net sales, compared to $237.4 million, or 21.5% of net sales, in 2021. SG&A expense in 2022 included a $19 million decrease in intangible asset amortization and acquisition-related expenses related to the Architectural Specialties segment, which was offset by a $18 million increase in selling expenses primarily related to investments in capabilities and incentive compensation in support of increased Architectural Specialties sales and partially related to growth initiative investments.

In 2022 and 2021, we recorded $11.0 million of remeasurement losses for changes in the fair value of contingent consideration related to the acquisition of Turf. In 2021, we recorded $4.1 million of remeasurement gains for changes in the fair value of contingent consideration related to the acquisitions of Turf and Moz. See Note 19 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for further information.

Equity earnings from our WAVE joint venture were $77.6 million in 2022, compared to $87.7 million in 2021. The decrease in WAVE earnings resulted primarily from lower volumes and higher steel cost, partially offset by favorable AUV. WAVE volumes throughout 2022 were negatively impacted by a reduction of inventory levels at certain customers in addition to weakening market conditions in the second half of the year. See Note 11 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for further information.

Interest expense was $27.1 million in 2022, compared to $22.9 million in 2021. The increase in interest expense was primarily due to higher interest rates on floating rate debt.

Other non-operating income, net, was $6.0 million in 2022, compared to $5.6 million in 2021. Other non-operating income, net, is primarily comprised of the non-service cost components of pension and postretirement net period benefit costs. See Note 18 and Note 25 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for further information.

Income tax expense was $57.7 million in 2022, compared to $57.4 million in 2021. The effective tax rate for 2022 was 22.4% compared to a rate of 23.7% for 2021. The effective tax rate for 2022 decreased in comparison to 2021 due to an increase in benefits recognized from statute closures, in addition to a 2022 reduction in our valuation allowance for capital loss carryforwards.

Total Other Comprehensive Income (“OCI”) was $9.5 million in 2022, compared to Total Other Comprehensive Loss (“OCL”) of $0.3 million in 2021. The change in OCI was primarily driven by derivative gains. Derivative gain represents the adjustments to fair value of our derivative assets and liabilities and the recognition of gains and losses previously deferred in OCI. Also impacting the change in OCI were pension and postretirement adjustments and foreign currency translation adjustments. Pension and postretirement adjustments represent the amortization of actuarial gains and losses related to our defined benefit pension and postretirement plans. Foreign currency translation adjustments represent the change in the U.S. dollar value of assets and liabilities denominated in foreign currencies. Amounts in 2022 were driven primarily by changes in the Canadian dollar.

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REPORTABLE SEGMENT RESULTS

Mineral Fiber

(dollar amounts in millions)

Net sales increased due to $95 million of favorable AUV, partially offset by a negative impact of $26 million from lower volumes. The improvement in AUV was driven by like-for-like pricing benefits, partially offset by negative customer channel mix. Volumes were negatively impacted by a reduction of inventory levels at certain customers in the first half of 2022 in addition to weakening market conditions in the second half of the year.

Operating income was unchanged from the prior year due to a $76 million benefit from favorable AUV, offset by a $40 million increase in manufacturing costs, primarily driven by increased raw material, energy and freight costs partially offset by improved manufacturing productivity, an $18 million decrease from lower sales volumes, a $10 million decrease in equity earnings and an $8 million increase in selling expenses, primarily due to investments in growth initiatives.

Architectural Specialties

(dollar amounts in millions)

Net sales increased $58 million, driven by broad based growth across our product categories.

Operating income increased due to a $30 million margin benefit from increased sales and a $14 million reduction in intangible asset amortization, partially offset by a $10 million increase in selling expenses, primarily related to investments in capabilities and incentive compensation, and a $6 million increase in manufacturing costs. Segment operating income also included a $9 million increase in acquisition-related expenses and losses, primarily due to the change in the fair value of contingent consideration.

Unallocated Corporate

Unallocated Corporate operating loss was $4 million in 2022 compared to $5 million in 2021.

FINANCIAL CONDITION AND LIQUIDITY

Cash Flow

Operating activities for 2022 provided $182.4 million of cash, compared to $187.2 million in 2021. The decrease was primarily due to negative timing-related working capital changes in accounts payable and accrued expenses, inventory and income tax payments, partially offset by a positive timing-related change in accounts receivable. These changes were partially offset by higher cash earnings.

Net cash provided by investing activities was $28.2 million for 2022, compared to $13.9 million used in 2021. The favorable change in cash was primarily due to an increase in dividends from our WAVE joint venture, the absence of purchase price adjustments paid to Knauf, and lower purchases of property, plant and equipment.

Net cash used for financing activities was $201.9 million in 2022, compared to $212.1 million in 2021. The favorable change in cash was primarily due to an increase in net borrowings under our revolving credit facility, partially offset by an increase in repurchases of outstanding common stock, payments of acquisition-related contingent consideration in 2022, and financing costs paid in connection with the amendment and restatement of our credit facility in December of 2022.

Liquidity

Our liquidity needs for operations vary throughout the year. We retain lines of credit to facilitate our seasonal cash flow needs, since cash flow is historically lower during the first and fourth quarters of our fiscal year.

On December 7, 2022, we amended and restated our $1,000.0 million variable rate senior secured credit facility. The $950.0 million amended senior secured credit facility is comprised of a $500.0 million revolving credit facility (with a $150.0 million sublimit for

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letters of credit) and a $450.0 million Term Loan A. The terms of the amended senior secured credit facility resulted in a higher interest rate spread for both the revolving credit facility and Term Loan A (1.50% over the London Interbank Offered Rate (“LIBOR”) to initially 1.625% over the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (“SOFR”), plus a 10-basis point SOFR adjustment). The interest rate can fluctuate based upon our election of the floating rate, with applicable margin subject to adjustment based on our consolidated net leverage ratio. We also extended the maturity of both the revolving credit facility and Term Loan A from September 2024 to December 2027. In connection with the refinancing, we paid $3.1 million of bank, legal and other fees, of which $3.0 million were capitalized. These fees are reflected as a component of long-term debt and amortized into interest expense over the lives of the underlying debt. Additionally, during the fourth quarter of 2022, we wrote off $0.6 million of unamortized debt financing costs, included as a component of interest expense, related to our previous credit facility. We also have a $25.0 million bi-lateral letter of credit facility separate from the senior secured credit facility.

As of December 31, 2022, total borrowings outstanding under our senior secured credit facility were $205.0 million under the revolving credit facility and $450.0 million under Term Loan A.

The amended senior secured credit facility includes two financial covenants that require the ratio of consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA”) to consolidated cash interest expense minus cash consolidated interest income to be greater than or equal to 3.0 to 1.0 and requires the ratio of consolidated funded indebtedness, minus AWI and domestic subsidiary unrestricted cash and cash equivalents up to $100 million, to EBITDA to be less than or equal to 3.75 to 1.0 (subject to certain exceptions for certain acquisitions). As of December 31, 2022, we were in compliance with all covenants of the senior secured credit facility.

The Term Loan A is currently priced on a variable interest rate basis. The following table summarizes our interest rate swaps (dollar amounts in millions):

Under the terms of our interest rate swaps above, we pay a fixed rate monthly and receive 1-month LIBOR, inclusive of a 0% floor.

These swaps are designated as cash flow hedges against changes in LIBOR for a portion of our variable rate debt.

In July 2017, the Financial Conduct Authority (the authority that regulates LIBOR) announced it intends to replace LIBOR rates with the SOFR effective in mid-2023. The Alternative Reference Rates Committee (“ARRC”) has proposed that the SOFR rate represents best practice as the alternative to USD-LIBOR for use in derivatives and other financial contracts that are currently indexed to USD-LIBOR. ARRC has proposed a paced market transition plan to SOFR from USD-LIBOR and organizations are currently working on industry wide and company specific transition plans as it relates to derivatives and cash markets exposed to USD-LIBOR. In the second quarter of 2020, we adopted Accounting Standards Update 2020-04, “Facilitation of the Effects of Reference Rate Reform on Financial Reporting,” which provides optional expedients and exceptions for applying U.S. GAAP to contracts, hedging relationships and other transactions affected by the discontinuation of LIBOR. We have elected practical expedients available under Accounting Standards Update 2020-04 to allow for different reference rates in our senior secured credit facility and interest rate hedges.

We utilize lines of credit and other commercial commitments to ensure that adequate funds are available to meet operating requirements. Letters of credit are currently arranged through our revolving credit facility and our bi-lateral facility. Letters of credit may be issued to third party suppliers, insurance and financial institutions and typically can only be drawn upon in the event of AWI’s failure to pay its obligations to the beneficiary. The following table presents details related to our letters of credit facilities (dollar amounts in millions):

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The table below reflects future payments of long-term debt, excluding $3.9 million of unamortized debt financing costs, and the related interest payments, which are projected based on market-based interest rate swap curves (dollar amounts in millions):

As of December 31, 2022, we had $106.0 million of cash and cash equivalents, $89.3 million in the U.S. and $16.7 million in various foreign jurisdictions, primarily Canada. As of December 31, 2022, we also had $295.0 million available under our revolving credit facility. We believe cash on hand and cash generated from operations, together with borrowing capacity under our credit facility, will be adequate to address our near-term liquidity needs based on current expectations of our business operations, capital expenditures and scheduled payment of debt obligations. In 2023, we expect to spend approximately $75 million to $85 million on capital expenditures and approximately $45 million on dividends.

On July 29, 2016, our Board of Directors approved our share repurchase program pursuant to which we are authorized to repurchase up to $1,200.0 million of our outstanding shares of common stock through December 31, 2023 (the “Program”). We had $348.8 million remaining under the Board’s repurchase authorization as of December 31, 2022.

Repurchases under the Program may be made through open market, block and privately negotiated transactions, including Rule 10b5-1 plans, at such times and in such amounts as management deems appropriate, subject to market and business conditions, regulatory requirements and other factors. The Program does not obligate AWI to repurchase any particular amount of common stock and may be suspended or discontinued at any time without notice.

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES

In preparing our consolidated financial statements in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”), we are required to make certain estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements, and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting period. We evaluate our estimates and assumptions on an on-going basis, using relevant internal and external information. We believe that our estimates and assumptions are reasonable. However, actual results may differ from what was estimated and could have a significant impact on the financial statements.

We have identified the following as our critical accounting estimates. We have discussed these critical accounting estimates with our Audit Committee.

U.S. Pension Credit and Postretirement Benefit Costs – We maintain significant pension and postretirement plans in the U.S. Our defined benefit pension and postretirement benefit costs are developed from actuarial valuations. These valuations are calculated using a number of assumptions, which represent management’s best estimate of the future. The assumptions that have the most significant impact on reported results are the discount rate, the estimated long-term return on plan assets and the estimated inflation in health care costs. These assumptions are generally updated annually.

Management utilizes the Aon Hewitt AA only above median yield curve, which is a hypothetical AA yield curve comprised of a series of annualized individual discount rates, as the primary basis for determining discount rates. As of December 31, 2022 and 2021, we assumed discount rates of 5.21% and 2.98%, respectively, for our U.S. defined benefit pension plans. As of December 31, 2022 and 2021, we assumed discount rates of 5.12% and 2.72%, respectively, for our U.S. postretirement plan. The effects of the change in discount rate will be amortized into earnings as described below. Absent any other changes, a one-quarter percentage point increase or decrease in the discount rates for the U.S. pension and postretirement plans would impact 2023 non-operating income by $0.4 million.

We manage two U.S. defined benefit pension plans, our RIP, which is a qualified funded plan, and a nonqualified unfunded plan. For the RIP, the expected long-term return on plan assets represents a long-term view of the future estimated investment return on plan assets. This estimate is determined based on the target allocation of plan assets among asset classes and input from investment professionals on the expected performance of the asset classes over 10 to 30 years. Historical asset returns are monitored and considered when we develop our expected long-term return on plan assets. An incremental component is added for the expected return from active management based on historical information obtained from the plan’s investment consultants. These forecasted gross returns are reduced by estimated management fees and expenses. Over the 10-year period ended December 31, 2022, the historical annualized return was approximately 2.97% compared to an average expected return of 5.80%. The actual loss on plan assets incurred

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for 2022 was 20.71%, net of fees. The difference between the actual and expected rate of return on plan assets will be amortized into earnings as described below.

The expected long-term return on plan assets used in determining our 2022 U.S. pension cost was 3.75%. We have assumed a return on plan assets for 2023 of 6.50%. The 2023 expected return on assets was calculated in a manner consistent with 2022. Absent any other changes, a one-quarter percentage point increase or decrease in this assumption would impact 2023 non-operating income by $1.0 million.

Contributions to the unfunded pension plan were $2.8 million in 2022 and were made on a monthly basis to fund benefit payments. We estimate the 2023 contributions will be approximately $2.8 million. See Note 18 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for more information.

The estimated inflation in health care costs represents a 5-10 year view of the expected inflation in our postretirement health care costs. We separately estimate expected health care cost increases for pre-65 retirees and post-65 retirees due to the influence of Medicare coverage at age 65, as illustrated below:

The difference between the actual and expected health care costs is amortized into earnings as described below. As of December 31, 2022, health care cost increases are estimated to decrease ratably until 2030, after which they are estimated to be constant at 4.50%. See Note 18 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for more information.

Actual results that differ from our various pension and postretirement plan estimates are captured as actuarial gains/losses. When certain thresholds are met, the gains and losses are amortized into future earnings over the remaining life expectancy of participants. Changes in assumptions could have significant effects on earnings in future years.

Total net actuarial losses related to our U.S. pension benefit plans as of December 31, 2022 increased by $19.8 million in 2022 primarily due to a less favorable than expected return on assets, partially offset by changes in actuarial assumptions (most significantly a 223-basis point increase in the discount rate). The $19.8 million actuarial loss impacting our U.S. pension plans is reflected as a component of other comprehensive income in our Consolidated Statements of Operations and Comprehensive Income along with actuarial gains and losses from our foreign pension plan and our U.S. postretirement benefit plan.

Income Taxes – Our effective tax rate is primarily determined based on our pre-tax income, statutory income tax rates in the jurisdictions in which we operate, and the tax impacts of items treated differently for tax purposes than for financial reporting purposes. Some of these differences are permanent, such as expenses that are not deductible in our tax returns, and some differences are temporary, reversing over time, such as depreciation expense. These temporary differences create deferred income tax assets and liabilities. Deferred income tax assets are also recorded for state net operating losses (“NOL”) and capital loss carryforwards.

As of December 31, 2022, we have recorded valuation allowances totaling $48.7 million for various federal and state deferred tax assets. While we have considered future taxable income in assessing the need for the valuation allowances based on our best available projections, if these estimates and assumptions change in the future or if actual results differ from our projections, we may be required to adjust our valuation allowances accordingly. Such adjustments could be material to our Consolidated Financial Statements.

As further described in Note 16 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, our Consolidated Balance Sheet as of December 31, 2022 includes deferred income tax liabilities of $169.4 million, net of $112.6 million of deferred tax assets. We have established $48.7 million of valuation allowances consisting of $31.3 million for state deferred tax assets, primarily operating loss carryforwards, and $17.4 million for federal and state deferred tax assets related to capital loss carryforwards. Inherent in determining our effective tax rate are judgments regarding business plans and expectations about future operations. These judgments include the amount and geographic mix of future taxable income, limitations on usage of NOL carryforwards, the impact of ongoing or potential tax audits, and other future tax consequences.

As of December 31, 2022 and 2021, we had $675.5 million and $700.9 million, respectively, of gross state NOL carryforwards expiring between 2023 and 2042. We estimate we will need to generate future U.S. taxable income of approximately $360.1 million for state income tax purposes during the respective realization periods (ranging from 2023 to 2042) to be able to fully realize the net state NOL deferred income tax assets.

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Our ability to utilize deferred tax assets may be impacted by certain future events, such as changes in tax legislation and insufficient future taxable income prior to expiration of certain deferred tax assets.

Impairments of Tangible Assets, Intangible Assets and Goodwill – Our indefinite-lived assets include goodwill and other intangibles, primarily trademarks and brand names. Those trademarks and brand names are integral to our corporate identity and expected to contribute indefinitely to our corporate cash flows. Accordingly, they have been assigned an indefinite life. We conduct our annual impairment tests for these indefinite-lived intangible assets and goodwill during the fourth quarter. These assets undergo more frequent tests if an indication of possible impairment exists. We conduct impairment tests for tangible assets and definite-lived intangible assets when indicators of impairment exist for the asset group, such as operating losses and/or negative cash flows.

The principal assumptions used in our impairment tests for definite-lived intangible assets is operating profit adjusted for depreciation and amortization and, if required to estimate the fair value, the discount rate. The principal assumptions used in our impairment tests for indefinite-lived intangible assets include revenue growth rates, discount rate and royalty rate. The principal assumptions utilized in our impairment tests for goodwill include after-tax cash flows growth rates and discount rate. Revenue growth rates, after-tax cash flows growth rates and operating profit assumptions are derived from those used in our operating plan and strategic planning processes. The discount rate assumption is calculated based upon an estimated weighted average cost of capital which reflects the overall level of inherent risk and the rate of return a market participant would expect to achieve. The royalty rate assumption represents the estimated contribution of the intangible assets to the overall profits of the related businesses. Methodologies used for valuing our intangible assets did not change from prior periods.

In 2022, indefinite-lived intangibles and goodwill were tested for impairment based on the identified asset (for indefinite-lived intangibles) or on our identified reporting units (for goodwill). There were no impairment charges recorded in 2022, 2021 or 2020 related to intangible assets. We did not test tangible assets within our continuing operations for impairment in 2022, 2021 or 2020 as no indicators of impairment existed.

The revenue and cash flow estimates used in applying our impairment tests are based on management’s analysis of information available at the time of the impairment test and represent a market participant view. Actual cash flows lower than the estimate could lead to significant future impairments. If subsequent testing indicates that fair values have declined, the carrying values would be reduced and our future statements of operations would be affected.

We cannot predict the occurrence of certain events that might lead to material impairment charges in the future. Such events may include, but are not limited to, the impact of economic environments, particularly related to the commercial and residential construction industries, material adverse changes in relationships with significant customers, or strategic decisions made in response to economic and competitive conditions. See Notes 3 and 13 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for further information.

Environmental Liabilities – We are actively involved in the investigation, closure and/or remediation of existing or potential environmental contamination under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (“CERCLA”), and state Superfund and similar environmental laws at two domestically owned locations allegedly resulting from past industrial activity. In a few cases, we are one of several potentially responsible parties and have agreed to jointly fund the required investigation, while preserving our defenses to the liability. We may also have rights of contribution or reimbursement from other parties or coverage under applicable insurance policies.

We provide for environmental remediation costs and penalties when the responsibility to remediate is probable and the amount of associated costs is reasonably determinable. Accruals are estimates based on the judgment of management related to ongoing proceedings. Estimates of our future liability at the environmental sites are based on evaluations of currently available facts regarding each individual site. In determining the probability of contribution, we consider the solvency of other parties, the site activities of other parties, whether liability is being disputed, the terms of any existing agreements and experience with similar matters, and the effect of our October 2006 Chapter 11 reorganization upon the validity of the claim.

We evaluate the measurement of recorded liabilities each reporting period based on current facts and circumstances specific to each matter. The ultimate losses incurred upon final resolution may materially differ from the estimated liability recorded. Changes in estimates are recorded in earnings in the period in which such changes occur.

We are unable to predict the extent to which any recoveries from other parties or coverage under insurance policies might cover our final share of costs for these sites. Our final share of investigation and remediation costs may exceed any such recoveries, and such amounts net of insurance recoveries may be material. However, we do not expect the total future costs to have a material adverse effect on our liquidity or financial condition as the cash payments may be made over many years.

Business Combinations and Contingent Consideration – Acquired businesses are accounted for using the acquisition method of accounting, which requires that the purchase price be allocated to the assets acquired and liabilities assumed at their respective fair

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values. Any excess of the purchase price over the estimated fair values of the assets acquired and liabilities assumed is recorded as goodwill. The estimated fair value of contingent consideration is recorded as a liability on the balance sheet at the date of acquisition. The purchase price allocation requires us to make significant estimates and assumptions, especially at the acquisition date, with respect to intangible assets and contingent consideration. Although we believe the assumptions and estimates we have made are reasonable, they are based in part on historical experience and information obtained from the management of the acquired companies. We engage independent, third-party valuation specialists to assist in determining the fair values of acquired intangible assets and contingent consideration.

Both the Moz and Turf acquisitions in 2020 included the potential for contingent earn-out payments based on the financial performance of the acquired companies. We estimated the fair value of these contingent consideration liabilities upon acquisition and are required to measure the liability at fair value each reporting period until the contingency is resolved, with changes in the fair value after the acquisition date affecting earnings in the period of the estimated fair value change. See Notes 5 and 19 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for further information.

The principal assumptions used in valuing certain intangible assets and contingent consideration include future expected cash flows from sales and acquired developed technologies, the acquired company's trade names and customer relationships as well as assumptions about the period of time the acquired trade names and customer relationships will continue to be used in the combined company's portfolio, the probability of meeting the future revenue and EBITDA growth targets and discount rates used to determine the present value of estimated future cash flows.

These estimates are inherently uncertain and unpredictable, and if different estimates were used, the total consideration including the estimated fair value of the contingent consideration, could be allocated to the acquired assets and liabilities differently from the allocation that we have made. In addition, unanticipated events and circumstances may occur, which may affect the accuracy or validity of such estimates, and if such events occur we may be required to record a charge against the value assigned to an acquired asset or an increase in the amounts recorded for assumed liabilities.

ACCOUNTING PRONOUNCEMENTS EFFECTIVE IN FUTURE PERIODS

There were no new accounting pronouncements issued or effective during the fiscal year which have had or are expected to have a material impact on the Consolidated Financial Statements.

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