PROVIDENT FINANCIAL SERVICES INC (PFS)

Item 2. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS.

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements contained herein are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements may be identified by reference to a future period or periods, or by the use of forward-looking terminology, such as “may,” “will,” “believe,” “expect,” “estimate,” "project," "intend," “anticipate,” “continue,” or similar terms or variations on those terms, or the negative of those terms. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, those set forth in Item 1A of the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K, as supplemented by its Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, and those related to the economic environment, particularly in the market areas in which the Company operates, inflation and unemployment, competitive products and pricing, real estate values, fiscal and monetary policies of the U.S. government, tariffs, changes in accounting policies and practices that may be adopted by the regulatory agencies and the accounting standards setters, changes in legislation and regulations affecting financial institutions, including regulatory fees, capital requirements and tax laws, higher than expected tax and other liabilities, changes in prevailing interest rates, potential goodwill impairment, acquisitions and the integration of acquired businesses,

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credit risk management, asset-liability management, the financial and securities markets and the availability of and costs associated with sources of liquidity.

The Company cautions readers not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements which speak only as of the date they are made. The Company advises readers that the factors listed above and other risks and uncertainties could affect the Company's financial performance and could cause the Company's actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements. The Company does not assume any duty, and does not undertake, to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of such statement.

Critical Accounting Policies

The Company considers certain accounting policies to be critically important to the fair presentation of its financial condition and results of operations. These policies require management to make complex judgments on matters which by their nature have elements of uncertainty. The sensitivity of the Company’s consolidated financial statements to these critical accounting policies, and the assumptions and estimates applied, could have a significant impact on its financial condition and results of operations. These assumptions, estimates and judgments made by management can be influenced by a number of factors, including the general economic environment. The Company has identified the allowance for credit losses on loans and the acquisition method of accounting as critical accounting policies.

The allowance for credit losses is a valuation account that reflects management’s evaluation of the current expected credit losses in the loan portfolio. The Company maintains the allowance for credit losses through provisions for credit losses that are charged to income. Charge-offs against the allowance for credit losses are taken on loans where management determines that the collection of loan principal and interest is unlikely. Recoveries made on loans that have been charged-off are credited to the allowance for credit losses.

The calculation of the allowance for credit losses is a critical accounting policy of the Company. Management estimates the allowance balance using relevant available information, from internal and external sources, related to past events, current conditions, and a reasonable and supportable forecast. Historical credit loss experience for both the Company and peers provides the basis for the estimation of expected credit losses, where observed credit losses are converted to probability of default rate (“PDR”) curves through the use of segment-specific loss given default (“LGD”) risk factors that convert default rates to loss severity based on industry-level, observed relationships between the two variables for each segment, primarily due to the nature of the underlying collateral. These risk factors were assessed for reasonableness against the Company’s own loss experience and adjusted in certain cases when the relationship between the Company’s historical default and loss severity deviates from that of the wider industry. The historical PDR curves, together with corresponding economic conditions, establish a quantitative relationship between economic conditions and loan performance through an economic cycle.

Using the historical relationship between economic conditions and loan performance, management’s expectation of future loan performance is incorporated using an externally developed economic forecast. This forecast is applied over a period that management has determined to be reasonable and supportable. Beyond the period over which management can develop or source a reasonable and supportable forecast, the model will revert to long-term average economic conditions using a straight-line, time-based methodology. The Company's current forecast period is six quarters, with a four-quarter reversion period to historical average macroeconomic factors. The Company's economic forecast is approved by the Company's ACL Committee.

The allowance for credit losses is measured on a collective (pool) basis, with both a quantitative and qualitative analysis that is applied on a quarterly basis, when similar risk characteristics exist. The respective quantitative allowance for each loan segment is measured using an econometric, discounted PDR/LGD modeling methodology in which distinct, segment-specific multi-variate regression models are applied to an external economic forecast. Under the discounted cash flows methodology, expected credit losses are estimated over the effective life of the loans by measuring the difference between the net present value of modeled cash flows and amortized cost basis. Contractual cash flows over the contractual life of the loans are the basis for modeled cash flows, adjusted for modeled defaults and expected prepayments and discounted at the loan-level effective interest rate. The contractual term excludes expected extensions, renewals and modifications unless either of the following applies at the reporting date: management has a reasonable expectation that a modification will be executed with an individual borrower; or when an extension or renewal option is included in the original contract and is not unconditionally cancellable by the Company. Management will assess the likelihood of the option being exercised by the borrower and appropriately extend the maturity for modeling purposes.

The Company considers qualitative adjustments to credit loss estimates for information not already captured in the quantitative component of the loss estimation process. Qualitative factors are based on portfolio concentration levels, model imprecision, changes in industry conditions, changes in the Company’s loan review process, changes in the Company’s loan policies and procedures, and economic forecast uncertainty.

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One of the most significant judgments involved in estimating the Company’s allowance for credit losses on loans relates to the macroeconomic forecasts used to estimate expected credit losses over the forecast period. As of June 30, 2026, the model incorporated Moody’s baseline economic forecast, as adjusted for qualitative factors, as well as an extensive review of classified loans and loans that were classified as impaired with a specific reserve assigned to those loans. The allowance estimation process resulted in a provision of $9.6 million and $4.9 million for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, and an overall coverage ratio of 92 basis points. Management believes the allowance for credit losses accurately represents the estimated inherent losses, factoring in the qualitative adjustment and other assumptions, including the selection of the baseline forecast within the model.

Portfolio segment is defined as the level at which an entity develops and documents a systematic methodology to determine its allowance for credit losses. Management developed segments for estimating loss based on type of borrower and collateral which is generally based upon federal call report segmentation. The segments have been combined or sub-segmented as needed to ensure loans of similar risk profiles are appropriately pooled. As of June 30, 2026, the portfolio and class segments for the Company’s loan portfolio were:

•Mortgage Loans – Residential, Commercial Real Estate, Multi-Family and Construction

•Commercial Loans – Commercial Owner-Occupied and Commercial Non-Real Estate Secured

•Consumer Loans – First Lien Home Equity and Other Consumer

The allowance for credit losses on loans individually evaluated for impairment is based upon loans that have been identified through the Company’s normal loan monitoring process. This process includes the review of delinquent and problem loans at the Company’s Credit, Credit Risk Management and Allowance Committees; or which may be identified through the Company’s loan review process. Generally, the Company only evaluates loans individually for impairment if the loan is non-accrual, non-homogeneous and the balance is greater than $1.0 million.

For all classes of loans deemed collateral-dependent, the Company estimates expected credit losses based on the fair value of the collateral less any selling costs. If the loan is not collateral dependent, the allowance for credit losses related to individually assessed loans is based on discounted expected cash flows using the loan’s initial effective interest rate.

Loans acquired that have experienced more-than-insignificant deterioration in credit quality since their origination are considered PCD loans. The Company evaluates acquired loans for deterioration in credit quality based on any of, but not limited to, the following: (1) non-accrual status; (2) modification designation; (3) risk ratings of special mention, substandard or doubtful; (4) watchlist credits; and (5) delinquency status, including loans that are current on acquisition date, but had been previously delinquent. At the acquisition date, an estimate of expected credit losses is made for groups of PCD loans with similar risk characteristics and individual PCD loans without similar risk characteristics. Subsequent to the acquisition date, the initial allowance for credit losses on PCD loans will increase or decrease based on future evaluations, with changes recognized in the provision for credit losses on loans.

Management believes the primary risks inherent in the portfolio are a general decline in the economy, a decline in real estate market values, rising unemployment or a protracted period of elevated unemployment, increasing vacancy rates in commercial investment properties and possible increases in interest rates in the absence of economic improvement. Any one or a combination of these events may adversely affect borrowers’ ability to repay the loans, resulting in increased delinquencies, credit losses and higher levels of provisions. Management considers it important to maintain the ratio of the allowance for credit losses to total loans at an acceptable level given current and forecasted economic conditions, interest rates and the composition of the portfolio.

The CECL approach to calculate the allowance for credit losses on loans is significantly influenced by the composition, characteristics and quality of the Company’s loa

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Item 7.    Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

General

The Company conducts business through its subsidiary, the Bank, a community- and customer-oriented bank currently operating full-service branches and loan production offices throughout New Jersey, as well as in Bethlehem, Philadelphia and Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania and Nassau and Orange County, New York. The Bank also provides fiduciary and wealth management services through its wholly owned subsidiary, Beacon Trust Company and insurance services through its wholly owned subsidiary, Provident Protection Plus, Inc.

Strategy

Established in 1839, the Bank is the oldest New Jersey-chartered bank in the state. The Bank offers a full range of commercial and retail loan and deposit products and emphasizes personal service and convenience.

The Bank’s strategy is to grow profitably through a commitment to credit quality and expanding market share by acquiring, retaining, and expanding customer relationships, while carefully managing interest rate risk.

The Bank continues to maintain a diversified loan portfolio with an emphasis on commercial mortgage, multi-family, construction, and commercial loans in its efforts to reduce interest rate risk. These types of loans generally have adjustable rates that initially are higher than residential mortgage loans and generally have a higher rate of credit risk. The Bank’s lending policy focuses on quality underwriting standards and close monitoring of the loan portfolio. As of December 31, 2025, these commercial loan types accounted for 86.7% of the loan portfolio and retail loans accounted for 13.3%. The Company intends to continue to focus on commercial mortgage, multi-family, construction, and commercial lending relationships.

The Company’s relationship banking strategy focuses on increasing core accounts and expanding relationships through its branch network, mobile banking, online banking and other digital services. The Company continues to evaluate opportunities to increase market share by expanding within existing and contiguous markets. Savings and demand deposit accounts are generally a stable, relatively inexpensive source of funds. As of December 31, 2025, savings and demand deposits were 82.9% of total deposits.

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The Company’s results of operations are primarily dependent upon net interest income, the difference between interest earned on interest-earning assets and the interest paid on interest-bearing liabilities. In a rapidly rising interest rate environment, changes in interest rates have an adverse effect on net interest income as the Company’s interest-bearing assets and interest-bearing liabilities reprice or mature at different times or relative interest rates. The Company generates non-interest income such as income from retail and business account fees, loan servicing fees, loan origination fees, loan level swap fees, appreciation in the cash surrender value of Bank-owned life insurance, income from loan or securities sales, fees from wealth management services, investment product sales, insurance brokerage fees and other fees. The Company’s operating expenses consist primarily of compensation and benefits expense, occupancy and equipment expense, data processing expense, the amortization of intangible assets, marketing and advertising expense and other general and administrative expenses. The Company’s results of operations are also affected by general economic conditions, changes in market interest rates, changes in asset quality, changes in asset values, actions of regulatory agencies and government policies.

Acquisitions

Lakeland Bancorp

On May 16, 2024, the Company completed its merger with Lakeland Bancorp, Inc. ("Lakeland"), which added $10.59 billion to total assets, $7.91 billion to total loans, $8.62 billion to total deposits and 68 full-service banking offices in New Jersey and New York. The Company closed 13 of the acquired Lakeland banking offices and 9 legacy Bank branches in the third quarter of 2024 due to geographic overlap.

Under the merger agreement, each share of Lakeland common stock was converted into the right to receive 0.8319 shares of the Company's common stock, a total of 54,356,954 shares converted, plus cash in lieu of fractional shares. The total consideration paid for the acquisition of Lakeland was $876.8 million. In connection with the acquisition, Lakeland Bank, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lakeland, was merged with and into the Bank.

Critical Accounting Policies

The Company considers certain accounting policies to be critically important to the fair presentation of its financial condition and results of operations. These policies require management to make complex judgments on matters which by their nature have elements of uncertainty. The sensitivity of the Company’s consolidated financial statements to these critical accounting policies, and the assumptions and estimates applied, could have a significant impact on its financial condition and results of operations. These assumptions, estimates and judgments made by management can be influenced by a number of factors, including the general economic environment. The Company has identified the allowance for credit losses on loans and the acquisition method of accounting as critical accounting policies.

Allowance for Credit Losses on Loans

The allowance for credit losses is a valuation account that reflects management’s evaluation of the current expected credit losses in the loan portfolio. The Company maintains the allowance for credit losses through provisions for credit losses that are charged to income. Charge-offs against the allowance for credit losses are taken on loans where management determines that the collection of loan principal and interest is unlikely. Recoveries made on loans that have been charged-off are credited to the allowance for credit losses.

The calculation of the allowance for credit losses is a critical accounting policy of the Company. Management estimates the allowance balance using relevant available information, from internal and external sources, related to past events, current conditions, and a reasonable and supportable forecast. Historical credit loss experience for both the Company and peers provides the basis for the estimation of expected credit losses, where observed credit losses are converted to probability of default rate (“PDR”) curves through the use of segment-specific loss given default (“LGD”) risk factors that convert default rates to loss severity based on industry-level, observed relationships between the two variables for each segment, primarily due to the nature of the underlying collateral. These risk factors were assessed for reasonableness against the Company’s own loss experience and adjusted in certain cases when the relationship between the Company’s historical default and loss severity deviates from that of the wider industry. The historical PDR curves, together with corresponding economic conditions, establish a quantitative relationship between economic conditions and loan performance through an economic cycle.

Using the historical relationship between economic conditions and loan performance, management’s expectation of future loan performance is incorporated using an externally developed economic forecast. This forecast is applied over a period that management has determined to be reasonable and supportable. Beyond the period over which management can develop or source a reasonable and supportable forecast, the model will revert to long-term average economic conditions using a straight-line, time-based methodology. The Company's current forecast period is six quarters, with a four-quarter reversion period to historical average macroeconomic factors. The Company's economic forecast is approved by the Company's ACL Committee.

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The allowance for credit losses is measured on a collective (pool) basis, with both a quantitative and qualitative analysis that is applied on a quarterly basis, when similar risk characteristics exist. The respective quantitative allowance for each loan segment is measured using an econometric, discounted PDR/LGD modeling methodology in which distinct, segment-specific multi-variate regression models are applied to an external economic forecast. Under the discounted cash flows methodology, expected credit losses are estimated over the effective life of the loans by measuring the difference between the net present value of modeled cash flows and amortized cost basis. Contractual cash flows over the contractual life of the loans are the basis for modeled cash flows, adjusted for modeled defaults and expected prepayments and discounted at the loan-level effective interest rate. The contractual term excludes expected extensions, renewals and modifications unless either of the following applies at the reporting date: management has a reasonable expectation that a modification will be executed with an individual borrower; or when an extension or renewal option is included in the original contract and is not unconditionally cancellable by the Company. Management will assess the likelihood of the option being exercised by the borrower and appropriately extend the maturity for modeling purposes.

The Company considers qualitative adjustments to credit loss estimates for information not already captured in the quantitative component of the loss estimation process. Qualitative factors are based on portfolio concentration levels, model imprecision, changes in industry conditions, changes in the Company’s loan review process, changes in the Company’s loan policies and procedures, and economic forecast uncertainty.

One of the most significant judgments involved in estimating the Company’s allowance for credit losses relates to the macroeconomic forecasts used to estimate expected credit losses over the forecast period. As of December 31, 2025, the model incorporated Moody’s baseline economic forecast, as adjusted for qualitative factors, as well as an extensive review of classified loans and loans that were classified as impaired with a specific reserve assigned to those loans. The allowance estimation process resulted in a total provision of $4.1 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, and an overall coverage ratio of 95 basis points. Management believes the allowance for credit losses accurately represents the estimated inherent losses, factoring in the qualitative adjustment and other assumptions, including the selection of the baseline forecast within the model.

Portfolio segment is defined as the level at which an entity develops and documents a systematic methodology to determine its allowance for credit losses. Management developed segments for estimating loss based on type of borrower and collateral which is generally based upon federal call report segmentation. The segments have been combined or sub-segmented as needed to ensure loans of similar risk profiles are appropriately pooled. As of December 31, 2025, the portfolio and class segments for the Company’s loan portfolio were:

•Mortgage Loans – Residential, Commercial Real Estate, Multi-Family and Construction

•Commercial Loans – Commercial Owner-Occupied and Commercial Non-Real Estate Secured

•Consumer Loans – First Lien Home Equity and Other Consumer

The allowance for credit losses on loans individually evaluated for impairment is based upon loans that have been identified through the Company’s normal loan monitoring process. This process includes the review of delinquent and problem loans at the Company’s Credit, Credit Risk Management and Allowance Committees; or which may be identified through the Company’s loan review process. Generally, the Company only evaluates loans individually for impairment if the loan is non-accrual, non-homogeneous and the balance is greater than $1.0 million.

For all classes of loans deemed collateral-dependent, the Company esti

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