Interest rates & the Fed macro thread
Policy-rate and Treasury-yield indicators from Federal Reserve and Treasury-linked public data.
This page is a data-driven assembly of existing grepcent indicators, SIC crosswalks, SEC company financials, and sanitized SEC MD&A text. The mapped sectors are grepcent descriptive editorial mappings, not forecasts, recommendations, or investment advice. Company inclusion is mechanical - largest by revenue in the mapped SIC sectors - and is not a recommendation, endorsement, or an assessment of any company's exposure to this theme.
Macro Side
| Indicator | Latest Reading | Units | As Of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEDFUNDS - Federal Funds Effective Rate | 3.63 | Percent | 2026-05-01 | FRED source |
| DFEDTARU - Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit | 3.75 | Percent | 2026-06-21 | FRED source |
| DFEDTARL - Federal Funds Target Range - Lower Limit | 3.5 | Percent | 2026-06-21 | FRED source |
| DGS3MO - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Month Constant Maturity | 3.83 | Percent | 2026-06-17 | FRED source |
| DGS2 - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity | 4.2 | Percent | 2026-06-17 | FRED source |
| DGS10 - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity | 4.49 | Percent | 2026-06-17 | FRED source |
| DGS30 - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity | 4.93 | Percent | 2026-06-17 | FRED source |
| T10Y2Y - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity | 0.27 | Percent | 2026-06-18 | FRED source |
Indicator Charts
FEDFUNDS recent series
DFEDTARU recent series
DFEDTARL recent series
Mapped SIC Sectors
- Depository Institutions
- SIC Major Group 61
- Security And Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges, And Services
- Holding And Other Investment Offices
Largest Companies in Mapped Sectors (by revenue)
| Company | Revenue | FY | Net Margin | Operating Margin | Revenue Growth | MD&A Mentions | Verbatim MD&A Excerpt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM - JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 182,447,000,000 | 2025 | 31.27% | 2.75% | interest rate, interest rates, variable rate | Funds transfer pricing (“FTP”) is the process by which the Firm allocates interest income and expense to the LOBs and Other Corporate and transfers the primary interest rate risk and liquidity risk to Treasury and CIO. | |
| SNEX - StoneX Group Inc. | 132,378,200,000 | 2025 | 0.23% | -0.06% | 32.53% | interest rate, interest rates | We achieved record net operating revenues, up 16%, and net income, up 17%, in fiscal 2025, despite experiencing generally diminished commodity volatility, declining short-term interest rates, heightened interest expense and logistical charges in our precious metals activities related to tariff related disruptions. |
| BAC - BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | 113,097,000,000 | 2025 | 26.98% | 6.84% | interest rate, interest rates | The increases were primarily driven by higher net interest income related to Global Markets activity, fixed-asset repricing, and deposit and loan growth, partially offset by the impact of lower interest rates and one less day of interest accrual. | |
| C - CITIGROUP INC | 85,225,000,000 | 2025 | 16.79% | 5.58% | interest rate, interest rates | Various macroeconomic, geopolitical and regulatory factors have contributed to economic uncertainties in the U.S. and globally, including, but not limited to, those related to various geopolitical challenges, tensions and conflicts; changes in U.S. laws or policies, including those related to trade and tariffs; and lower interest rates. | |
| WFC - WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN | 83,699,000,000 | 2025 | 25.49% | 1.70% | interest rate, interest rates | The net interest margin is the average yield on earning assets minus the average interest rate paid for deposits and our other sources of funding. | |
| AXP - AMERICAN EXPRESS CO | 72,229,000,000 | 2025 | 15.00% | 9.52% | interest rate, interest rates, variable rate | Interest income increased, primarily driven by growth in revolving loan balances, partially offset by lower interest rates. | |
| MS - MORGAN STANLEY | 70,645,000,000 | 2025 | 23.87% | 14.38% | interest rate, interest rates | The year was characterized by increased momentum in capital markets activity and lower interest rates. | |
| GS - GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 58,283,000,000 | 2025 | 29.47% | 8.92% | interest rate, interest rates | Additionally, markets were focused on the timing and amount of policy interest rate cuts by central banks globally, including three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year. | |
| COF - CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP | 53,434,000,000 | 2025 | 4.59% | 36.62% | interest rate, interest rates, variable rate | We expect net interest income and our net interest margin to fluctuate based on changes in interest rates and changes in the amount and composition of our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities. | |
| APO - Apollo Global Management, Inc. | 32,049,000,000 | 2025 | 10.90% | 22.73% | interest rate, interest rates, variable rate | Price fluctuations within equity, credit, commodity and foreign exchange markets, as well as interest rates and global inflation, which may be volatile and mixed across geographies, can significantly impact the performance of our business, including, but not limited to, the valuation of investments, including those of the funds we manage, and related income we may recognize. | |
| USB - US BANCORP \DE\ | 28,656,000,000 | 2025 | 26.42% | 4.37% | interest rate, interest rates, variable rate | Refer to the “Interest Rate Risk Management” section for further information on the sensitivity of the Company’s net interest income to changes in interest rates. | |
| TFC - TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP | 24,542,000,000 | 2025 | 21.62% | -2.09% | interest rate, interest rates, variable rate | Net interest income - TE for the year ended December 31, 2025 was up $316 million, or 2.2%, compared to the year ended December 31, 2024 primarily due to loan and deposit growth, fixed-rate asset repricing, and the balance sheet repositioning in the second quarter of 2024, partially offset by the impact of reductions in interest rates throughout 2025. | |
| BLK - BlackRock, Inc. | 24,216,000,000 | 2025 | 22.93% | 29.09% | 18.67% | interest rate, interest rates | Changes in global interest rates may similarly cause BlackRock’s AUM to fluctuate and introduce volatility to the Company’s investment advisory and administration fees (collectively "base fees"), net income, and operating cash flows. |
| SCHW - SCHWAB CHARLES CORP | 23,921,000,000 | 2025 | 37.01% | 22.01% | interest rate, interest rates | Duration: Duration is typically used to measure the expected change in value of a financial instrument for a 1% change in interest rates, expressed in years. | |
| PNC - PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC. | 23,099,000,000 | 2025 | 30.29% | 7.16% | interest rate, interest rates | The difference between fair value and amortized cost at December 31, 2025 primarily reflected the impact of interest rate changes on the valuation of fixed-rate securities. |