TRAVELERS COMPANIES, INC. (TRV)
SIC breadcrumb: Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate > Insurance Carriers > SIC 6331 Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance
SEC company page: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=86312. Latest filing source: 0000086312-26-000065.
Informational only - descriptive public-record data, not investment advice.
Selected Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | Unit | FY | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 48,828,000,000 | USD | 2025 | 2026-02-12 |
| Net income | 6,288,000,000 | USD | 2025 | 2026-02-12 |
| Assets | 143,708,000,000 | USD | 2025 | 2026-02-12 |
Financials
Annual standardized facts from SEC companyfacts as of latest extracted filing date 2026-02-12. Source: https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000086312.json. Derived margins, ratios, and free cash flow are computed from the extracted annual SEC facts.
| Metric | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 27,625,000,000 | 28,902,000,000 | 30,282,000,000 | 31,581,000,000 | 31,981,000,000 | 34,816,000,000 | 36,884,000,000 | 41,364,000,000 | 46,423,000,000 | 48,828,000,000 |
| Net income | 3,014,000,000 | 2,056,000,000 | 2,523,000,000 | 2,622,000,000 | 2,697,000,000 | 3,662,000,000 | 2,842,000,000 | 2,991,000,000 | 4,999,000,000 | 6,288,000,000 |
| Diluted EPS | 10.28 | 7.33 | 9.28 | 9.92 | 10.52 | 14.49 | 11.77 | 12.79 | 21.47 | 27.43 |
| Operating cash flow | 4,469,000,000 | 4,148,000,000 | 4,380,000,000 | 5,205,000,000 | 6,519,000,000 | 7,274,000,000 | 6,465,000,000 | 7,711,000,000 | 9,074,000,000 | 10,606,000,000 |
| Dividends paid | 757,000,000 | 785,000,000 | 814,000,000 | 844,000,000 | 861,000,000 | 869,000,000 | 875,000,000 | 908,000,000 | 951,000,000 | 979,000,000 |
| Share buybacks | 2,400,000,000 | 1,378,000,000 | 1,270,000,000 | 1,500,000,000 | 625,000,000 | 2,156,000,000 | 2,000,000,000 | 958,000,000 | 1,003,000,000 | 3,004,000,000 |
| Assets | 100,245,000,000 | 103,483,000,000 | 104,233,000,000 | 110,122,000,000 | 116,764,000,000 | 120,466,000,000 | 115,717,000,000 | 125,978,000,000 | 133,189,000,000 | 143,708,000,000 |
| Liabilities | 77,024,000,000 | 79,752,000,000 | 81,339,000,000 | 84,179,000,000 | 87,563,000,000 | 91,579,000,000 | 94,157,000,000 | 101,057,000,000 | 105,325,000,000 | 110,814,000,000 |
| Stockholders' equity | 23,221,000,000 | 23,731,000,000 | 22,894,000,000 | 25,943,000,000 | 29,201,000,000 | 28,887,000,000 | 21,560,000,000 | 24,921,000,000 | 27,864,000,000 | 32,894,000,000 |
Ratios
| Metric | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net margin | 10.91% | 7.11% | 8.33% | 8.30% | 8.43% | 10.52% | 7.71% | 7.23% | 10.77% | 12.88% |
| Return on equity | 12.98% | 8.66% | 11.02% | 10.11% | 9.24% | 12.68% | 13.18% | 12.00% | 17.94% | 19.12% |
| Return on assets | 3.01% | 1.99% | 2.42% | 2.38% | 2.31% | 3.04% | 2.46% | 2.37% | 3.75% | 4.38% |
| Liabilities / equity | 3.32 | 3.36 | 3.55 | 3.24 | 3.00 | 3.17 | 4.37 | 4.06 | 3.78 | 3.37 |
Financial Charts
Quarterly
Quarterly standardized facts from SEC companyfacts as of latest extracted filing date 2026-04-16. Source: https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000086312.json.
| Quarter | End Date | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-Q2 | 2022-06-30 | 2.27 | reported discrete quarter | ||
| 2022-Q3 | 2022-09-30 | 1.89 | reported discrete quarter | ||
| 2023-Q1 | 2023-03-31 | 4.13 | reported discrete quarter | ||
| 2023-Q2 | 2023-06-30 | 10,098,000,000 | -14,000,000 | -0.07 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2023-Q3 | 2023-09-30 | 10,635,000,000 | 404,000,000 | 1.74 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2023-Q4 | 2023-12-31 | 10,927,000,000 | 1,626,000,000 | derived Q4 = FY annual - nine-month YTD | |
| 2024-Q1 | 2024-03-31 | 11,228,000,000 | 1,123,000,000 | 4.80 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2024-Q2 | 2024-06-30 | 11,283,000,000 | 534,000,000 | 2.29 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2024-Q3 | 2024-09-30 | 11,904,000,000 | 1,260,000,000 | 5.42 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2024-Q4 | 2024-12-31 | 12,008,000,000 | 2,082,000,000 | derived Q4 = FY annual - nine-month YTD | |
| 2025-Q1 | 2025-03-31 | 11,810,000,000 | 395,000,000 | 1.70 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2025-Q2 | 2025-06-30 | 12,116,000,000 | 1,509,000,000 | 6.53 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2025-Q3 | 2025-09-30 | 12,470,000,000 | 1,888,000,000 | 8.24 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2025-Q4 | 2025-12-31 | 12,432,000,000 | 2,496,000,000 | derived Q4 = FY annual - nine-month YTD | |
| 2026-Q1 | 2026-03-31 | 11,924,000,000 | 1,711,000,000 | 7.78 | reported discrete quarter |
Quarterly Charts
Macro Cross-References
- CPIAUCSL - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average
- UNRATE - Unemployment Rate
- FEDFUNDS - Federal Funds Effective Rate
- CES0500000003 - Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private
- DFEDTARU - Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit
- DFEDTARL - Federal Funds Target Range - Lower Limit
- DGS3MO - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Month Constant Maturity
- DGS2 - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity
- DGS10 - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
- DGS30 - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity
- T10Y2Y - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
- CPILFESL - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy
- CPIUFDSL - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food
- CPIENGSL - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Energy
- CUSR0000SAH1 - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter
- PCEPI - Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index
- PCEPILFE - Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy: Chain-type Price Index
- PPIACO - Producer Price Index by Commodity: All Commodities
- T10YIE - 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
- U6RATE - Total Unemployed, Plus All Marginally Attached Workers Plus Total Employed Part Time for Economic Reasons
- PAYEMS - All Employees, Total Nonfarm
- CIVPART - Labor Force Participation Rate
- EMRATIO - Employment-Population Ratio
- UNEMPLOY - Unemployed
- CE16OV - Employment Level
- ICSA - Initial Claims
- JTSJOL - Job Openings: Total Nonfarm
- JTSQUR - Quits: Total Nonfarm
- GDPC1 - Real Gross Domestic Product
- A191RL1Q225SBEA - Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change from Preceding Period
- INDPRO - Industrial Production: Total Index
- TCU - Capacity Utilization: Total Index
- HOUST - New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units
- PERMIT - New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized in Permit-Issuing Places: Total Units
- RSAFS - Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade
- PCE - Personal Consumption Expenditures
- DSPIC96 - Real Disposable Personal Income
- PSAVERT - Personal Saving Rate
- M2SL - M2
- BOPGSTB - U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services: Balance
- MSPUS - Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States
- HSN1F - New One Family Houses Sold: United States
- RHORUSQ156N - Homeownership Rate in the United States
- TTLCONS - Total Construction Spending: Total Construction in the United States
- RRVRUSQ156N - Rental Vacancy Rate in the United States
- TOTALSL - Total Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized
- REVOLSL - Revolving Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized
- DRCCLACBS - Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Banks
- GDP - Gross Domestic Product
- GPDI - Gross Private Domestic Investment
- GCE - Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
- PCEC - Personal Consumption Expenditures
- NETEXP - Net Exports of Goods and Services
- GFDEBTN - Federal Debt: Total Public Debt
- GFDEGDQ188S - Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product
- FYFSD - Federal Surplus or Deficit
- FGRECPT - Federal Government Current Receipts
- FGEXPND - Federal Government: Current Expenditures
- MANEMP - All Employees, Manufacturing
- USCONS - All Employees, Construction
- USTRADE - All Employees, Retail Trade
- USFIRE - All Employees, Financial Activities
- USGOVT - All Employees, Government
- AWHAETP - Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private
- DGORDER - Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods
- NEWORDER - Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft
- BUSINV - Total Business Inventories
- EXPGS - Exports of Goods and Services
- IMPGS - Imports of Goods and Services
- IR - Import Price Index (End Use): All Commodities
- PPIFIS - Producer Price Index by Commodity: Final Demand
Latest quarter (10-Q)
Latest 10-Q source: 0000086312-26-000111.
Item 2. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following is a discussion and analysis of the Company’s financial condition and results of operations.
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
2026 First Quarter Consolidated Results of Operations
•Net income of $1.71 billion, or $7.89 per share basic and $7.78 per share diluted
•Net earned premiums of $10.61 billion
•Catastrophe losses of $761 million ($601 million after-tax)
•Net favorable prior year reserve development of $413 million ($325 million after-tax)
•Combined ratio of 88.6%
•Net investment income of $1.01 billion ($833 million after-tax)
•Net realized investment gains of $49 million ($15 million after-tax)
•Operating cash flows of $2.20 billion
2026 First Quarter Consolidated Financial Condition
•Total investments of $102.98 billion; fixed maturities and short-term securities comprised 95% of total investments
•Total assets of $142.31 billion
•Total debt of $9.27 billion, resulting in a debt-to-total capital ratio of 22.5% (21.2% excluding net unrealized investment losses, net of tax)
•Total capital returned to shareholders of $2.22 billion, comprising $1.99 billion of share repurchases and $238 million of dividends
•Shareholders’ equity of $31.99 billion
•Net unrealized investment losses of $3.01 billion ($2.38 billion after-tax)
•Book value per common share of $150.42
•Holding company liquidity of $2.38 billion
29
THE TRAVELERS COMPANIES, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS, Continued
CONSOLIDATED OVERVIEW
Consolidated Results of Operations
| Three Months Ended March 31, | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in millions, except ratio and per share amounts) | 2026 | 2025 | |||||
| Revenues | |||||||
| Premiums | $ | 10,605 | $ | 10,710 | |||
| Net investment income | 1,008 | 930 | |||||
| Fee income | 121 | 119 | |||||
| Net realized investment gains (losses) | 49 | (61) | |||||
| Other revenues | 141 | 112 | |||||
| Total revenues | 11,924 | 11,810 | |||||
| Claims and expenses | |||||||
| Claims and claim adjustment expenses | 6,382 | 8,006 | |||||
| Amortization of deferred acquisition costs | 1,766 | 1,778 | |||||
| General and administrative expenses | 1,541 | 1,459 | |||||
| Interest expense | 116 | 99 | |||||
| Total claims and expenses | 9,805 | 11,342 | |||||
| Income before income taxes | 2,119 | 468 | |||||
| Income tax expense | 408 | 73 | |||||
| Net income | $ | 1,711 | $ | 395 | |||
| Net income per share | |||||||
| Basic | $ | 7.89 | $ | 1.73 | |||
| Diluted | $ | 7.78 | $ | 1.70 | |||
| Combined ratio | |||||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 59.6 | % | 74.2 | % | |||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 29.0 | 28.3 | |||||
| Combined ratio | 88.6 | % | 102.5 | % |
The following discussions of the Company’s net income and segment income are presented on an after-tax basis. Discussions of the components of net income and segment income are presented on a pre-tax basis, unless otherwise noted. Discussions of net income per common share are presented on a diluted basis.
Overview
Diluted net income per share of $7.78 in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 358% over diluted net income per share of $1.70 in the same period of 2025. Net income of $1.71 billion in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 333% over net income of $395 million in the same period of 2025. The higher rate of increase in diluted net income per share reflected the impact of share repurchases in recent periods. The increase in income before income taxes in the first quarter of 2026 primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) lower catastrophe losses, (ii) net realized investment gains compared to net realized investment losses in the same period of 2025, (iii) higher net investment income and (iv) higher net favorable prior year reserve development, partially offset by (v) lower underwriting margins excluding catastrophe losses and prior year reserve development (“underlying underwriting margins”). Catastrophe losses in the first quarters of 2026 and 2025 were $761 million and $2.27 billion, respectively. Net favorable prior year reserve development in the first quarters of 2026 and 2025 was $413 million and $378 million, respectively. The lower underlying underwriting margins in the first quarter of 2026 were driven by Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty Insurance, partially offset by Personal Insurance. Income tax expense in the first quarter of 2026 was higher than in the same period of 2025, primarily reflecting the impact of the increase in income before income taxes.
The Company has insurance operations in the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland, Canada and throughout other parts of the world as a corporate member of Lloyd’s, as well as in Brazil through a joint venture. Because these operations are conducted in local currencies other than the U.S. dollar, the Company is subject to changes in foreign currency exchange rates. For the three months ended March 31, 2026 and 2025, changes in foreign currency exchange rates impacted reported line items
30
THE TRAVELERS COMPANIES, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS, Continued
in the statement of income by insignificant amounts. The impact of these changes was not material to the Company’s net income or segment income for the periods reported.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in the first quarter of 2026 were $10.61 billion, $105 million or 1% lower than in the same period of 2025. Earned premiums in the first quarter of 2025 included $258 million related to the Canadian operations divested by the Company in the first quarter of 2026. In Business Insurance, earned premiums in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 1% over the same period of 2025. In Bond & Specialty Insurance, earned premiums in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 2% over the same period of 2025. In Personal Insurance, earned premiums in the first quarter of 2026 decreased by 4% from the same period of 2025. Factors contributing to the changes in earned premiums in each segment are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
Net Investment Income
The following table sets forth information regarding the Company’s investments.
| Three Months Ended March 31, | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (dollars in millions) | 2026 | 2025 | |||||
| Average investments (1) | $ | 106,666 | $ | 101,000 | |||
| Pre-tax net investment income | 1,008 | 930 | |||||
| After-tax net investment income | 833 | 763 | |||||
| Average pre-tax yield (2) | 3.8 | % | 3.7 | % | |||
| Average after-tax yield (2) | 3.1 | % | 3.0 | % |
_______________________________________________
(1)Excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses and reflects cash, receivables for investment sales, payables on investment purchases and accrued investment income.
(2)Excludes net realized and net unrealized investment gains and losses.
Net investment income in the first quarter of 2026 was $1.01 billion, $78 million or 8% higher than in the same period of 2025. Net investment income from fixed maturity investments in the first quarter of 2026 was $899 million, $87 million higher than in the same period of 2025. The increase in the first quarter of 2026 primarily resulted from higher long-term average yields and a higher average level of fixed maturity investments. Net investment income from short-term securities in the first quarter of 2026 was $75 million, $18 million higher than in the same period of 2025. The increase in the first quarter of 2026 primarily resulted from a higher average level of short-term securities, partially offset by lower short-term average yields. The Company’s remaining investment portfolios had net investment income of $47 million in the first quarter of 2026, $29 million lower than in the same period of 2025, primarily reflecting lower private equity partnership returns. Included in other investments are private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships that are accounted for under the equity method of accounting and typically report their financial statement information to the Company one month to three months following the end of the reporting period. Accordingly, net investment income from these other investments is generally reflected in the Company’s financial statements on a quarter lag basis.
Fee Income
Fee income in the first quarter of 2026 was $121 million, $2 million higher than in the same period of 2025. The National Accounts market in Business Insurance is the primary source of the Company’s fee-based business and is discussed in the Business Insurance segment discussion that follows.
31
THE TRAVELERS COMPANIES, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS, Continued
Net Realized Investment Gains (Losses)
The following table sets forth information regarding the Company’s net realized investment gains (losses).
| Three Months Ended March 31, | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in millions) | 2026 | 2025 | |||||
| Impairment gains (losses): | |||||||
| Fixed maturities | $ | (3) | $ | (2) | |||
| Net realized investment gains (losses) on equity securities still held | (5) | (22) | |||||
| Other net realized investment gains (losses), including from sales | 57 | (37) | |||||
| Total | $ | 49 | $ | (61) |
Net realized investment losses on equity securities still held of $5 million and $22 million in the first quarters of 2026 and 2025, respectively, were driven by the impact of changes in fair value attributable to unfavorable equity markets.
Other net realized investment gains in the first quarter of 2026 were driven by net realized investment gains related to the Canadian operations divested by the Company in the first quarter of 2026, partially offset by net realized investment losses related to fixed maturity investments.
Other Revenues
Other revenues in the first quarter of 2026 were $141 million, $29 million higher than in the same period of 2025. Other revenues include revenues from Simply Business, installment premium charges and other policyholder service charges.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in the first quarter of 2026 were $6.38 billion, $1.62 billion or 20% lower than in the same period of 2025, driven by Personal Insurance and Business Insurance, partially offset by Bond & Specialty Insurance. Claims and claim adjustment expenses in the first quarter of 2025 included $182 million related to the Canadian operations divested by the Company in the first quarter of 2026. Catastrophe losses in the first quarter of 2026 primarily resulted from severe wind and hail storms and winter storms in multiple states. Catastrophe losses in the first quarter of 2025 primarily resulted from the January 2025 wildfires and severe wind and hail storms in multiple states. Factors contributing to the changes in claims and claim adjustment expenses in each segment are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
Factors contributing to net prior year reserve development during the first quarters of 2026 and 2025 are discussed in more detail in note 7 of the notes to the unaudited consolidated financial statements.
Significant Catastrophe Losses
The following table presents the amount of losses recorded by the Company for significant catastrophes that occurred in the three months ended March 31, 2026 and 2025, the amount of net unfavorable (favorable) prior year reserve development recognized in the three months ended March 31, 2026 and 2025 for significant catastrophes that occurred in 2025 and 2024, and the estimate of ultimate losses for those catastrophes at March 31, 2026 and December 31, 2025. For purposes of the table, a significant catastrophe is an event for which the Company estimates its ultimate losses will be
[Excerpt truncated for page length; source filing is linked above.]
Latest 10-K MD&A
Item 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following is a discussion and analysis of the Company’s financial condition and results of operations for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, including year-to-year comparisons between 2025 and 2024. Year-to-year comparisons between 2024 and 2023 have been omitted from this Form 10-K, but may be found in “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Part II, Item 7 of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024.
On May 27, 2025, the Company entered into an agreement to sell its Canadian personal insurance business and the majority of its Canadian commercial insurance business to Definity Financial Corporation for approximately US$2.4 billion. The assets and liabilities of the Canadian personal insurance business and the majority of its Canadian commercial insurance business have been classified as held for sale in the consolidated balance sheet as of December 31, 2025. The Company retained its surety business in Canada. The sale closed on January 2, 2026. See note 1 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
2025 Consolidated Results of Operations
•Net income of $6.29 billion, or $27.83 per share basic and $27.43 per share diluted
•Net earned premiums of $43.91 billion
•Catastrophe losses of $3.69 billion ($2.92 billion after-tax)
•Net favorable prior year reserve development of $1.04 billion ($815 million after-tax)
•Combined ratio of 89.9%
•Net investment income of $3.96 billion ($3.25 billion after-tax)
•Net realized investment losses of $48 million ($37 million after-tax)
•Operating cash flows of $10.61 billion
2025 Consolidated Financial Condition
•Total investments of $101.18 billion; fixed maturities and short-term securities comprised 94% of total investments
•Total assets of $143.71 billion
•Total debt of $9.27 billion, resulting in a debt-to-total capital ratio of 22.0% (21.2% excluding net unrealized investment losses, net of tax, included in shareholders’ equity)
•Total capital returned to shareholders of $4.18 billion, comprising $3.20 billion of share repurchases and $987 million of dividends
•Shareholders’ equity of $32.89 billion
•Net unrealized investment losses of $1.86 billion ($1.48 billion after-tax)
•Book value per common share of $151.21
•Holding company liquidity of $2.41 billion
60
CONSOLIDATED OVERVIEW
Consolidated Results of Operations
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions except ratio and per share amounts) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Premiums | $ | 43,914 | $ | 41,941 | $ | 37,761 | |||||
| Net investment income | 3,959 | 3,590 | 2,922 | ||||||||
| Fee income | 495 | 473 | 433 | ||||||||
| Net realized investment losses | (48) | (30) | (105) | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 508 | 449 | 353 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 48,828 | 46,423 | 41,364 | ||||||||
| Claims and expenses | |||||||||||
| Claims and claim adjustment expenses | 27,221 | 27,059 | 26,215 | ||||||||
| Amortization of deferred acquisition costs | 7,266 | 6,973 | 6,226 | ||||||||
| General and administrative expenses | 6,120 | 5,819 | 5,176 | ||||||||
| Interest expense | 425 | 392 | 376 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 41,032 | 40,243 | 37,993 | ||||||||
| Income before income taxes | 7,796 | 6,180 | 3,371 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense | 1,508 | 1,181 | 380 | ||||||||
| Net income | $ | 6,288 | $ | 4,999 | $ | 2,991 | |||||
| Net income per share | |||||||||||
| Basic | $ | 27.83 | $ | 21.76 | $ | 12.93 | |||||
| Diluted | $ | 27.43 | $ | 21.47 | $ | 12.79 | |||||
| Combined ratio | |||||||||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 61.4 | % | 64.0 | % | 68.9 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 28.5 | 28.5 | 28.1 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 89.9 | % | 92.5 | % | 97.0 | % |
The following discussions of the Company’s net income and segment income (loss) are presented on an after-tax basis. Discussions of the components of net income and segment income (loss) are presented on a pre-tax basis, unless otherwise noted. Discussions of net income per common share are presented on a diluted basis.
Overview
Diluted net income per share of $27.43 in 2025 increased by 28% over diluted net income per share of $21.47 in 2024. Net income of $6.29 billion in 2025 increased by 26% over net income of $5.00 billion in 2024. The higher rate of increase in diluted net income per share reflected the impact of share repurchases in recent periods. The increase in income before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) higher underwriting margins excluding catastrophe losses and prior year reserve development (“underlying underwriting margins”), (ii) higher net investment income and (iii) higher net favorable prior year reserve development, partially offset by (iv) higher catastrophe losses. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2025 and 2024 was $1.04 billion and $709 million, respectively. Catastrophe losses in 2025 and 2024 were $3.69 billion and $3.34 billion, respectively. The higher underlying underwriting margins in 2025 were driven by all three segments. Income tax expense in 2025 was higher than in 2024, primarily reflecting the impact of the increase in income before income taxes.
The Company has insurance operations in the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland, Canada and throughout other parts of the world as a corporate member of Lloyd’s, as well as in Brazil through a joint venture. Because these operations are conducted in local currencies other than the U.S. dollar, the Company is subject to changes in foreign currency exchange rates. For the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, changes in foreign currency exchange rates impacted reported line items in the statement of income by insignificant amounts. The impact of these changes was not material to the Company’s net income or segment income (loss) for the periods reported.
61
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2025 were $43.91 billion, $1.97 billion or 5% higher than in 2024. In Business Insurance, earned premiums in 2025 increased by 5% over 2024. In Bond & Specialty Insurance, earned premiums in 2025 increased by 4% over 2024. In Personal Insurance, earned premiums in 2025 increased by 5% over 2024. Factors contributing to the change in earned premiums in each segment in 2025 as compared with 2024 are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
Net Investment Income
The following table sets forth information regarding the Company’s investments.
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average investments(1) | $ | 104,239 | $ | 97,012 | $ | 90,941 | |||||
| Pre-tax net investment income | 3,959 | 3,590 | 2,922 | ||||||||
| After-tax net investment income | 3,254 | $ | 2,952 | 2,436 | |||||||
| Average pre-tax yield(2) | 3.8 | % | 3.7 | % | 3.2 | % | |||||
| Average after-tax yield(2) | 3.1 | % | 3.0 | % | 2.7 | % |
___________________________________________
(1)Excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses and reflects cash, receivables for investment sales, payables on investment purchases and accrued investment income.
(2)Excludes net realized and net unrealized investment gains and losses.
Net investment income in 2025 was $3.96 billion, $369 million or 10% higher than in 2024. Net investment income from fixed maturity investments in 2025 was $3.43 billion, $485 million higher than in 2024. The increase primarily resulted from a higher average level of fixed maturity investments and higher long-term average yields. Net investment income from short-term securities in 2025 was $253 million, $27 million lower than in 2024. The decrease primarily resulted from lower short-term average yields, partially offset by a higher level of short-term investments. The Company’s remaining investment portfolios had net investment income of $326 million in 2025, $83 million lower than in 2024, primarily reflecting lower private equity partnership returns. Included in other investments are private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships that are accounted for under the equity method of accounting and typically report their financial statement information to the Company one month to three months following the end of the reporting period. Accordingly, net investment income from these other investments is generally reflected in the Company’s financial statements on a quarter lag basis.
Fee Income
Fee income in 2025 was $495 million, $22 million higher than in 2024. The National Accounts market in Business Insurance is the primary source of the Company’s fee-based business and is discussed in the Business Insurance segment discussion that follows.
Net Realized Investment Gains (Losses)
The following table sets forth information regarding the Company’s net pre-tax realized investment gains (losses).
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impairment gains (losses): | |||||||||||
| Fixed maturities | $ | (2) | $ | (5) | $ | (3) | |||||
| Real estate investments | — | (5) | (9) | ||||||||
| Net realized investment gains (losses) on equity securities still held | 50 | 89 | 16 | ||||||||
| Other net realized investment gains (losses), including from sales | (96) | (109) | (109) | ||||||||
| Total | $ | (48) | $ | (30) | $ | (105) |
Net realized investment gains on equity securities still held of $50 million and $89 million in 2025 and 2024, respectively, were driven by the impact of changes in fair value attributable to favorable equity markets.
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Other net realized investment losses in 2025 included $67 million of net realized investment losses related to fixed maturity investments, $24 million of net realized investment losses related to other investments and $5 million of net realized investment losses related to equity securities sold. Other net realized investment losses in 2024 included $126 million of net realized investment losses related to fixed maturity investments and $10 million of net realized investment losses related to other investments, partially offset by $17 million of net realized investment gains related to real estate sales and $10 million of net realized investment gains related to equity securities sold.
Other Revenues
Other revenues in 2025 were $508 million, $59 million higher than 2024. Other revenues include revenues from Simply Business, installment premium charges and other policyholder service charges.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2025 were $27.22 billion, $162 million or 1% higher than 2024, driven by Business Insurance, partially offset by Personal Insurance and Bond & Specialty Insurance. Catastrophes in 2025 primarily resulted from the January 2025 California wildfires and severe wind and hail storms in multiple states. Catastrophes in 2024 primarily resulted from Hurricane Helene and numerous severe wind and hail storms in multiple states. Factors contributing to the changes in claims and claim adjustment expenses in each segment are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
Factors contributing to net prior year reserve development are discussed in more detail in note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Significant Catastrophe Losses
The Company defines a catastrophe as a severe loss event designated, or reasonably expected by the Company to be designated, a catastrophe by one or more industry recognized organizations that track and report on insured losses resulting from catastrophic events, such as Property Claim Services (PCS) for events in the United States and Canada.
Catastrophes can be caused by various natural events, including, among others, hurricanes, tornadoes and other windstorms, earthquakes, hail, wildfires, severe winter weather, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and other naturally-occurring events, such as solar flares. Catastrophes can also be man-made, such as terrorist attacks and other destructive acts, including those involving nuclear, biological, chemical and radiological events, cyber events, explosions and destruction of infrastructure. The effects of catastrophes are included in net income (loss) and core income (loss) and claims and claim adjustment expense reserves upon occurrence. A catastrophe may also result in the payment of reinsurance reinstatement premiums and assessments from various pools and associations.
The Company’s threshold for disclosing catastrophes is primarily determined at the reportable segment level. If a threshold for one segment or a combination thereof is reached and the other segments have losses from the same event, losses from the event are identified as catastrophe losses in the segment results and for the consolidated results of the Company. Additionally, an aggregate threshold is applied for International business across all reportable segments. The threshold for 2025 ranged from approximately $20 million to $30 million of losses before reinsurance and taxes.
The following table presents the amount of losses recorded by the Company for significant catastrophes that occurred in 2025, 2024 and 2023, the amount of net unfavorable (favorable) prior year reserve development recognized in 2025 and 2024 for catastrophes that occurred in 2024 and 2023, and the estimate of ultimate losses for those catastrophes at December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023. For purposes of the table, a significant catastrophe is an event for which the Company estimates its ultimate losses will be $100 million or more after reinsurance and before taxes.
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| Losses Incurred / Unfavorable (Favorable) Prior Year Reserve Development for the Year Ended December 31, | Estimated Ultimate Losses as of December 31, | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in millions, pre-tax and net of reinsurance) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |||||||||||
| 2023 | |||||||||||||||||
| PCS Serial Number: | |||||||||||||||||
| 25 — Severe wind and hail storms | (5) | (6) | 153 | 142 | 147 | 153 | |||||||||||
| 32 — Severe wind and hail storms | (6) | (5) | 140 | 129 | 135 | 140 | |||||||||||
| 33 — Severe wind and hail storms | (2) | (10) | 199 | 187 | 189 | 199 | |||||||||||
| 35 — Severe wind and hail storms | 11 | — | 140 | 151 | 140 | 140 | |||||||||||
| 38 — Severe wind and hail storms | 3 | 3 | 110 | 116 | 113 | 110 | |||||||||||
| 42 — Severe wind and hail storms | — | 4 | 133 | 137 | 137 | 133 | |||||||||||
| 48 — Severe wind and hail storms | 3 | (6) | 150 | 147 | 144 | 150 | |||||||||||
| 49 — Severe wind and hail storms | (6) | 2 | 133 | 129 | 135 | 133 | |||||||||||
| 51 — Severe wind and hail storms | 8 | (34) | 265 | 239 | 231 | 265 | |||||||||||
| 63 — Severe wind and hail storms | — | 5 | 125 | 130 | 130 | 125 | |||||||||||
| 75 — Severe wind and hail storms | (2) | (17) | 190 | 171 | 173 | 190 | |||||||||||
| 2024 | |||||||||||||||||
| PCS Serial Number: | |||||||||||||||||
| 26 — Severe wind and hail storms | (10) | 261 | n/a | 251 | 261 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 39 — Severe wind and hail storms | (7) | 250 | n/a | 243 | 250 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 42 — Severe wind and hail storms | (12) | 161 | n/a | 149 | 161 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 44 — Severe wind and hail storms | (1) | 171 | n/a | 170 | 171 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 45 — Severe wind and hail storms | 15 | 159 | n/a | 174 | 159 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 46 — Severe wind and hail storms | 9 | 182 | n/a | 191 | 182 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 61 — Severe wind and hail storms | (17) | 144 | n/a | 127 | 144 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 77 — Hurricane Helene | (68) | 733 | n/a | 665 | 733 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 2025 | |||||||||||||||||
| 11 — California wildfire – Palisades fire | 1,344 | n/a | n/a | 1,344 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 12 — California wildfire – Eaton fire | 377 | n/a | n/a | 377 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 24 — Severe wind and hail storms | 337 | n/a | n/a | 337 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 29 — Severe wind and hail storms | 137 | n/a | n/a | 137 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 37 — Severe wind and hail storms | 227 | n/a | n/a | 227 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 39 — Severe wind and hail storms | 101 | n/a | n/a | 101 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 43 — Severe wind and hail storms | 97 | n/a | n/a | 97 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 45 — Severe wind and hail storms | 107 | n/a | n/a | 107 | n/a | n/a |
___________________________________________
n/a: not applicable.
Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2025 was $7.27 billion, $293 million or 4% higher than in 2024. The increase in 2025 was generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums. Amortization of deferred acquisition costs is discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
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General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2025 were $6.12 billion, $301 million or 5% higher than in 2024, primarily reflecting the impact of costs associated with higher business volumes. General and administrative expenses are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
Interest Expense
Interest expense in 2025 and 2024 was $425 million and $392 million, respectively.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2025 was $1.51 billion, $327 million or 28% higher than in 2024, primarily reflecting the impact of the $1.62 billion increase in income before income taxes in 2025.
The Company’s effective tax rate was 19% in both 2025 and 2024. The effective tax rates in both years reflected the impact of tax-exempt investment income on the calculation of the Company’s income tax provision.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 89.9% in 2025 was 2.6 points lower than the combined ratio of 92.5% in 2024. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 61.4% in 2025 was 2.6 points lower than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 64.0% in 2024. The underwriting expense ratio of 28.5% in 2025 was comparable with the underwriting expense ratio in 2024.
Catastrophe losses in 2025 and 2024 accounted for 8.4 points and 8.0 points, respectively, of the combined ratio. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2025 and 2024 provided 2.4 points and 1.7 points of benefit, respectively, to the combined ratio. The combined ratio excluding prior year reserve development and catastrophe losses (“underlying combined ratio”) in 2025 was 2.3 points lower than the 2024 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) the benefit of earned pricing and (ii) lower losses in Personal Insurance.
The combined ratio continues to be impacted by the tort environment, including more aggressive attorney involvement in insurance claims.
Written Premiums
Consolidated gross and net written premiums were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |||||||
| Business Insurance | $ | 25,250 | $ | 24,515 | $ | 22,569 | ||||
| Bond & Specialty Insurance | 4,647 | 4,519 | 4,187 | |||||||
| Personal Insurance | 17,833 | 17,516 | 16,216 | |||||||
| Total | $ | 47,730 | $ | 46,550 | $ | 42,972 |
| Net Written Premiums | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |||||||
| Business Insurance | $ | 22,679 | $ | 22,078 | $ | 20,430 | ||||
| Bond & Specialty Insurance | 4,262 | 4,109 | 3,842 | |||||||
| Personal Insurance | 17,446 | 17,169 | 15,929 | |||||||
| Total | $ | 44,387 | $ | 43,356 | $ | 40,201 |
Gross and net written premiums in 2025 increased by 3% and 2%, respectively, over 2024. Factors contributing to the changes in gross and net written premiums in each segment are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
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RESULTS OF OPERATIONS BY SEGMENT
Business Insurance
Results of Business Insurance were as follows:
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 22,412 | $ | 21,345 | $ | 19,144 | |||||
| Net investment income | 2,782 | 2,560 | 2,085 | ||||||||
| Fee income | 445 | 430 | 400 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 379 | 322 | 232 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 26,018 | 24,657 | 21,861 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 21,432 | 20,570 | 18,910 | ||||||||
| Segment income before income taxes | 4,586 | 4,087 | 2,951 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense | 891 | 781 | 368 | ||||||||
| Segment income | $ | 3,695 | $ | 3,306 | $ | 2,583 | |||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 62.2 | % | 63.1 | % | 65.3 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 29.5 | 29.4 | 29.4 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 91.7 | % | 92.5 | % | 94.7 | % |
Overview
Segment income in 2025 was $3.70 billion, $389 million or 12% higher than segment income of $3.31 billion in 2024. The increase in segment income before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) higher net investment income, (ii) higher underlying underwriting margins and (iii) higher net favorable prior year reserve development, partially offset by (iv) higher catastrophe losses. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2025 and 2024 was $233 million and $90 million, respectively. Catastrophe losses in 2025 and 2024 were $1.07 billion and $1.03 billion, respectively. The higher underlying underwriting margins primarily reflected the impacts of (i) the benefit of earned pricing and (ii) higher business volumes, partially offset by (iii) higher general and administrative expenses. Income tax expense in 2025 was higher than in 2024, primarily reflecting the impact of the increase in segment income before income taxes.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2025 were $22.41 billion, $1.07 billion or 5% higher than in 2024, primarily reflecting the increase in net written premiums over the preceding twelve months.
Net Investment Income
Net investment income in 2025 was $2.78 billion, $222 million or 9% higher than in 2024. Refer to the “Net Investment Income” section of the “Consolidated Results of Operations” discussion for a description of the factors contributing to the increase in the Company’s consolidated net investment income in 2025 compared with 2024. In addition, refer to note 2 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for a discussion of the Company’s net investment income allocation methodology.
Fee Income
National Accounts is the primary source of fee income due to revenue from its large deductible policies and service businesses, which include risk management, claims administration, loss control and risk management information services provided to third parties, as well as policy issuance and claims management services to workers’ compensation residual market pools. Fee income in 2025 was $445 million, $15 million or 3% higher than in 2024, primarily reflecting higher claim volume under administration associated with large deductible policies and the service business.
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Other Revenues
Other revenues in 2025 were $379 million, $57 million or 18% higher than in 2024, driven by growth in Simply Business. Other revenues also include premium installment charges and other policyholder service charges.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2025 were $14.15 billion, $475 million or 3% higher than in 2024, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) loss cost trends and (ii) higher catastrophe losses, partially offset by (iii) higher net favorable prior year reserve development.
Factors contributing to net prior year reserve development are discussed in more detail in note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2025 was $3.80 billion, $208 million or 6% higher than in 2024, generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2025 were $3.48 billion, $179 million or 5% higher than in 2024. The increase in 2025 was primarily in support of business growth.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2025 was $891 million, $110 million or 14% higher than in 2024, primarily reflecting the impact of the $499 million increase in segment income before income taxes in 2025.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 91.7% in 2025 was 0.8 points lower than the combined ratio of 92.5% in 2024. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 62.2% in 2025 was 0.9 points lower than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 63.1% in 2024. The underwriting expense ratio of 29.5% in 2025 was 0.1 points higher than the underwriting expense ratio of 29.4% in 2024.
Catastrophe losses in both 2025 and 2024 accounted for 4.8 points of the combined ratio. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2025 and 2024 provided 1.1 points and 0.4 points of benefit, respectively, to the combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio in 2025 was 0.1 points lower than the 2024 ratio on the same basis.
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Written Premiums
Business Insurance’s gross and net written premiums by market were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Select Accounts | $ | 3,910 | $ | 3,768 | $ | 3,502 | |||||
| Middle Market | 13,719 | 12,971 | 11,800 | ||||||||
| National Accounts | 1,777 | 1,786 | 1,665 | ||||||||
| National Property and Other | 3,699 | 3,828 | 3,630 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 23,105 | 22,353 | 20,597 | ||||||||
| International | 2,145 | 2,162 | 1,972 | ||||||||
| Total Business Insurance | $ | 25,250 | $ | 24,515 | $ | 22,569 |
| Net Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Select Accounts | $ | 3,830 | $ | 3,727 | $ | 3,477 | |||||
| Middle Market | 12,541 | 12,023 | 11,045 | ||||||||
| National Accounts | 1,262 | 1,259 | 1,135 | ||||||||
| National Property and Other | 3,112 | 3,134 | 3,008 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 20,745 | 20,143 | 18,665 | ||||||||
| International | 1,934 | 1,935 | 1,765 | ||||||||
| Total Business Insurance | $ | 22,679 | $ | 22,078 | $ | 20,430 |
Gross and net written premiums in 2025 both increased by 3% over 2024.
Select Accounts. Net written premiums of $3.83 billion in 2025 increased by 3% over 2024. Retention rates remained strong in 2025 but decreased from 2024. Renewal premium changes in 2025 remained positive but were slightly lower than in 2024. New business premiums in 2025 increased over 2024.
Middle Market. Net written premiums of $12.54 billion in 2025 increased by 4% over 2024. Retention rates remained strong in 2025 and were comparable with 2024. Renewal premium changes in 2025 remained positive but were lower than in 2024. New business premiums in 2025 increased over 2024.
National Accounts. Net written premiums of $1.26 billion in 2025 increased slightly over 2024. Retention rates remained strong in 2025 and were comparable with 2024. Renewal premium changes in 2025 remained positive but were lower than in 2024. New business premiums in 2025 decreased from 2024.
National Property and Other. Net written premiums of $3.11 billion in 2025 decreased by 1% from 2024. Retention rates remained strong in 2025 and increased over 2024. Renewal premium changes in 2025 remained positive but were lower than in 2024. New business premiums in 2025 decreased from 2024.
International. Net written premiums of $1.93 billion in 2025 were comparable with 2024.
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Bond & Specialty Insurance
Results of Bond & Specialty Insurance were as follows:
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 4,107 | $ | 3,958 | $ | 3,655 | |||||
| Net investment income | 445 | 390 | 328 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 27 | 30 | 25 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 4,579 | 4,378 | 4,008 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 3,385 | 3,362 | 2,839 | ||||||||
| Segment income before income taxes | 1,194 | 1,016 | 1,169 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense | 244 | 201 | 227 | ||||||||
| Segment income | $ | 950 | $ | 815 | $ | 942 | |||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 42.6 | % | 44.4 | % | 40.1 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 39.3 | 39.9 | 36.8 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 81.9 | % | 84.3 | % | 76.9 | % |
Overview
Segment income in 2025 was $950 million, $135 million or 17% higher than segment income of $815 million in 2024. The increase in segment income before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) higher net favorable prior year reserve development, (ii) higher net investment income, (iii) lower catastrophe losses and (iv) higher underlying underwriting margins. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2025 and 2024 was $221 million and $129 million, respectively. Catastrophe losses in 2025 and 2024 were $25 million and $51 million, respectively. The higher underlying underwriting margins primarily reflected (i) higher business volumes, partially offset by (ii) the impact of earned pricing and (iii) higher general and administrative expenses. Income tax expense in 2025 was higher than in 2024, primarily reflecting the impact of the increase in segment income before income taxes.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2025 were $4.11 billion, $149 million or 4% higher than in 2024, primarily reflecting an increase in net written premiums, including the impact of longer duration surety bonds and multi-year management liability policies.
Net Investment Income
Net investment income in 2025 was $445 million, $55 million or 14% higher than in 2024. Included in Bond & Specialty Insurance are certain legal entities whose invested assets and related net investment income are reported exclusively in this segment and not allocated among all business segments. Refer to the “Net Investment Income” section of the “Consolidated Results of Operations” discussion for a description of the factors contributing to the increase in the Company’s consolidated net investment income in 2025 as compared with 2024. In addition, refer to note 2 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for a discussion of the Company’s net investment income allocation methodology.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2025 were $1.76 billion, $10 million or 1% lower than in 2024, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) higher net favorable prior year reserve development and (ii) lower catastrophe losses, partially offset by (iii) higher business volumes and (iv) loss cost trends.
Factors contributing to net prior year reserve development are discussed in more detail in note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
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Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2025 was $778 million, $22 million or 3% higher than in 2024, generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2025 were $843 million, $11 million or 1% higher than in 2024.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2025 was $244 million, $43 million or 21% higher than in 2024, primarily reflecting the impact of the $178 million increase in segment income before income taxes in 2025.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 81.9% in 2025 was 2.4 points lower than the combined ratio of 84.3% in 2024. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 42.6% in 2025 was 1.8 points lower than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 44.4% in 2024. The underwriting expense ratio of 39.3% in 2025 was 0.6 points lower than the underwriting expense ratio of 39.9% in 2024.
Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2025 and 2024 provided 5.4 points and 3.3 points of benefit, respectively, to the combined ratio. Catastrophe losses in 2025 and 2024 accounted for 0.7 points and 1.3 points, respectively, of the combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio in 2025 was 0.3 points higher than the 2024 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impact of earned pricing.
Written Premiums
Bond & Specialty Insurance’s gross and net written premiums were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Management Liability | $ | 2,588 | $ | 2,599 | $ | 2,391 | |||||
| Surety | 1,443 | 1,387 | 1,219 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 4,031 | 3,986 | 3,610 | ||||||||
| International | 616 | 533 | 577 | ||||||||
| Total Bond & Specialty Insurance | $ | 4,647 | $ | 4,519 | $ | 4,187 |
| Net Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Management Liability | $ | 2,326 | $ | 2,309 | $ | 2,156 | |||||
| Surety | 1,354 | 1,294 | 1,147 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 3,680 | 3,603 | 3,303 | ||||||||
| International | 582 | 506 | 539 | ||||||||
| Total Bond & Specialty Insurance | $ | 4,262 | $ | 4,109 | $ | 3,842 |
Gross written premiums and net written premiums in 2025 increased by 3% and 4%, respectively, over 2024.
Domestic. Net written premiums of $3.68 billion in 2025 increased by 2% over 2024. Excluding the surety line of business, for which the following are not relevant measures, retention rates remained strong in 2025 but decreased from 2024. Renewal premium changes in 2025 remained positive and were higher than in 2024. New business premiums in 2025 decreased from 2024.
International. Net written premiums of $582 million in 2025 increased by 15% over 2024, driven by increases in the United Kingdom and broader Europe.
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Personal Insurance
Results of Personal Insurance were as follows:
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 17,395 | $ | 16,638 | $ | 14,962 | |||||
| Net investment income | 732 | 640 | 509 | ||||||||
| Fee income | 50 | 43 | 33 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 102 | 97 | 96 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 18,279 | 17,418 | 15,600 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 15,741 | 15,875 | 15,831 | ||||||||
| Segment income (loss) before income taxes | 2,538 | 1,543 | (231) | ||||||||
| Income tax expense (benefit) | 485 | 294 | (103) | ||||||||
| Segment income (loss) | $ | 2,053 | $ | 1,249 | $ | (128) | |||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 65.0 | % | 69.7 | % | 80.4 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 24.5 | 24.7 | 24.4 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 89.5 | % | 94.4 | % | 104.8 | % |
Overview
Segment income in 2025 was $2.05 billion, $804 million or 64% higher than segment income of $1.25 billion in 2024. The increase in segment income before income taxes was driven by the pre-tax impacts of (i) higher underlying underwriting margins, (ii) higher net investment income and (iii) higher net favorable prior year reserve development, partially offset by (iv) higher catastrophe losses. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2025 and 2024 was $582 million and $490 million, respectively. Catastrophe losses in 2025 and 2024 were $2.59 billion and $2.25 billion, respectively. The higher underlying underwriting margins primarily reflected the impacts of (i) lower losses in the automobile product line, (ii) the benefit of earned pricing, (iii) higher business volumes and (iv) lower non-catastrophe weather-related and non-weather losses in the homeowners and other product line. Income tax expense in 2025 was higher than in 2024, primarily reflecting the impact of the increase in segment income before income taxes.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2025 were $17.40 billion, $757 million or 5% higher than in 2024, primarily reflecting the increase in net written premiums over the preceding twelve months.
Net Investment Income
Net investment income in 2025 was $732 million, $92 million or 14% higher than in 2024. Refer to the “Net Investment Income” section of the “Consolidated Results of Operations” discussion for a description of the factors contributing to the increase in the Company’s consolidated net investment income in 2025 as compared with 2024. In addition, refer to note 2 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for a discussion of the Company’s net investment income allocation methodology.
Other Revenues
Other revenues in all years presented primarily consisted of installment premium charges.
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Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2025 were $11.30 billion, $303 million or 3% lower than in 2024, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) lower losses in the automobile product line, (ii) lower non-catastrophe weather-related and non-weather losses in the homeowners and other product line and (iii) higher net favorable prior year reserve development, partially offset by (iv) higher catastrophe losses and (v) loss cost trends.
Factors contributing to net prior year reserve development are discussed in more detail in note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2025 was $2.69 billion, $63 million or 2% higher than in 2024, generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2025 were $1.75 billion, $106 million or 6% higher than in 2024, primarily reflecting higher contingent commissions.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2025 was $485 million, $191 million or 65% higher than in 2024, primarily reflecting the impact of the $995 million increase in segment income before income taxes.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 89.5% in 2025 was 4.9 points lower than the combined ratio of 94.4% in 2024. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 65.0% in 2025 was 4.7 points lower than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 69.7% in 2024. The underwriting expense ratio of 24.5% in 2025 was 0.2 points lower than the underwriting expense ratio of 24.7% in 2024.
Catastrophe losses accounted for 14.9 points and 13.5 points of the combined ratio in 2025 and 2024, respectively. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2025 and 2024 provided 3.4 points and 3.0 points of benefit, respectively, to the combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio in 2025 was 5.9 points lower than the 2024 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) lower losses in the automobile product line, (ii) the benefit of earned pricing and (iii) lower non-catastrophe weather-related and non-weather losses in the homeowners and other product line.
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Written Premiums
Personal Insurance’s gross and net written premiums were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Automobile | $ | 7,772 | $ | 7,949 | $ | 7,352 | |||||
| Homeowners and Other | 9,383 | 8,845 | 8,190 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 17,155 | 16,794 | 15,542 | ||||||||
| International | 678 | 722 | 674 | ||||||||
| Total Personal Insurance | $ | 17,833 | $ | 17,516 | $ | 16,216 |
| Net Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Automobile | $ | 7,745 | $ | 7,925 | $ | 7,330 | |||||
| Homeowners and Other | 9,051 | 8,550 | 7,949 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 16,796 | 16,475 | 15,279 | ||||||||
| International | 650 | 694 | 650 | ||||||||
| Total Personal Insurance | $ | 17,446 | $ | 17,169 | $ | 15,929 |
Gross and net written premiums in 2025 both increased by 2% over 2024.
Domestic
Automobile net written premiums of $7.75 billion in 2025 decreased by 2% from 2024. Retention rates remained strong in 2025 and were comparable with 2024. Renewal premium changes in 2025 remained positive but were lower than in 2024. New business premiums in 2025 increased over 2024.
Homeowners and Other net written premiums of $9.05 billion in 2025 increased by 6% over 2024. Retention rates remained strong in 2025 but decreased from 2024. Renewal premium changes in 2025 remained positive and were higher than in 2024. New business premiums in 2025 decreased from 2024.
For its Domestic business, Personal Insurance had approximately 8.4 million and 8.8 million active policies at December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.
International
International net written premiums of $650 million in 2025 decreased by 6% from 2024, driven by decreases in the automobile product line.
For its International business, Personal Insurance had approximately 349,000 and 425,000 active policies at December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.
Interest Expense and Other
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income (loss) | $ | (373) | $ | (345) | $ | (325) |
The income (loss) for Interest Expense and Other in 2025 and 2024 was $(373) million and $(345) million, respectively. Pre-tax interest expense in 2025 and 2024 was $425 million and $392 million, respectively. After-tax interest expense in 2025 and 2024 was $336 million and $310 million, respectively.
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ASBESTOS CLAIMS AND LITIGATION
The Company believes that the property and casualty insurance industry has suffered from court decisions and other trends that have expanded insurance coverage for asbestos claims far beyond the original intent of insurers and policyholders. The Company has received and continues to receive a significant number of asbestos claims. Factors underlying these claim filings include continued intensive advertising by lawyers seeking asbestos claimants and the focus by plaintiffs on defendants, such as manufacturers of talcum powder, who were not traditionally sued and/or primary targets of asbestos litigation. Many defendants have also been subject to increased settlement demands, in part due to the bankruptcy of many traditional primary targets of asbestos litigation. Currently, in many jurisdictions, those who allege very serious injury and who can present credible medical evidence of their injuries are receiving priority trial settings in the courts, while those who have not shown any credible disease manifestation are having their hearing dates delayed or placed on an inactive docket. Prioritizing claims involving credible evidence of injuries, along with the focus on defendants who were not traditionally primary targets of asbestos litigation, contributes to the claims and claim adjustment expense payment patterns experienced by the Company. The Company’s asbestos-related claims and claim adjustment expense experience also has been impacted by the unavailability of other insurance sources potentially available to policyholders, whether through exhaustion of policy limits or through the insolvency of other participating insurers.
The Company continues to be involved in disputes, including litigation, with a number of policyholders, some of whom are in bankruptcy, over coverage for asbestos-related claims. Many coverage disputes with policyholders are only resolved through settlement agreements. Because many policyholders make exaggerated demands, it is difficult to predict the outcome of settlement negotiations. Settlements involving bankrupt policyholders may include extensive releases which are favorable to the Company, but which could result in settlements for larger amounts than originally anticipated. Although the Company has seen a reduction in the overall risk associated with these disputes, it remains difficult to predict the ultimate cost of these claims. As in the past, the Company will continue to pursue settlement opportunities.
In addition to claims against policyholders, proceedings have been launched directly against insurers, including the Company, by individuals challenging insurers’ conduct with respect to the handling of past asbestos claims and by individuals seeking damages arising from alleged asbestos-related bodily injuries. While the number of direct actions has decreased significantly over time, it is possible that additional direct actions against insurers, including the Company, could be filed in the future. It is difficult to predict the outcome of these proceedings, including whether the plaintiffs would be able to sustain these actions against insurers based on novel legal theories of liability. The Company believes it has meritorious defenses to any such claims and has received favorable rulings in certain jurisdictions.
The Company’s net asbestos reserves as of December 31, 2025 and 2024 were $1.36 billion and $1.34 billion, respectively, and include case reserves, IBNR reserves and reserves for the costs of defending asbestos-related coverage litigation. IBNR reserves include amounts for new claims and adverse development on existing policyholders, as well as reserves for claims from policyholders reporting asbestos claims for the first time and for policyholders for which there is, or may be, litigation. Asbestos reserves also include amounts related to certain policyholders with whom the Company has entered into permanent settlement agreements, which are based on the expected payout for each policyholder under the applicable agreement. Additionally, a portion of the asbestos reserves relates to assumed reinsurance contracts, primarily consisting of reinsurance of excess coverage, including various pool participations.
Because each policyholder presents different liability and coverage issues, the Company generally conducts an in-depth asbestos claim review on an annual basis, including a review of domestic policyholders with open claims and litigation cases for potential product and “non-product” liability. Policyholders are identified for this review based upon, among other factors: a combination of past payments and current case reserves in excess of a specified threshold (currently $100,000), perceived level of exposure, number of reported claims, products/completed operations and potential “non-product” exposures, size of policyholder and geographic distribution of products or services sold by the policyholder.
Among the factors the Company may consider in the course of this review are: available insurance coverage, including the role of any umbrella or excess insurance the Company has issued to the policyholder; limits and deductibles; an analysis of the policyholder’s potential liability, including as a result of the bankruptcy of other defendants; the jurisdictions involved, including any trends, judicial rulings or legislative actions in those jurisdictions; past and anticipated future claim activity and loss development on pending claims; past settlement values of similar claims; allocated claim adjustment expense; the potential role of other insurance; the role, if any, of non-asbestos claims or potential non-asbestos claims in any resolution process; and applicable coverage defenses or determinations, if any, including the determination as to whether or not an asbestos claim is a products/completed operation claim subject to an aggregate limit and the available coverage, if any, for that claim.
The Company also reviews its asbestos reserves quarterly. These reviews include, as appropriate, an analysis of exposure and claim payment patterns by policyholder, as well as recent settlements, policyholder bankruptcies, judicial rulings and legislative
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actions. The Company also analyzes developing payment patterns among policyholders and the assumed reinsurance component of reserves, as well as projected reinsurance billings and recoveries. In addition, the Company reviews its historical gross and net loss and expense paid experience, year-by-year, to assess any emerging trends, fluctuations, or characteristics suggested by the aggregate paid activity. Conventional actuarial methods are not utilized to establish asbestos reserves, and the Company’s evaluations have not resulted in a reliable method to determine a meaningful average asbestos defense or indemnity payment.
During the third quarter of 2025, the Company completed its annual in-depth asbestos claim review. While the latest available government data continue to reflect a declining trend in deaths caused by mesothelioma, the number of policyholders with open asbestos claims was relatively flat compared to 2024. Net asbestos paid loss and loss adjustment expenses in 2025, 2024 and 2023 were $261 million, $282 million and $212 million, respectively. Payments on behalf of these policyholders continue to be influenced by the factors described above, including an increase in severity for certain policyholders and a high level of litigation activity in a limited number of jurisdictions where individuals alleging serious asbestos-related injury, primarily mesothelioma, continue to target defendants who were not traditionally sued and/or primary targets of asbestos litigation. The completion of the analyses described above and the annual review in the third quarters of 2025, 2024 and 2023 resulted in $277 million, $242 million and $284 million increases, respectively, to the Company’s net asbestos reserves. In each year, the reserve increases were primarily driven by increases in the Company’s estimate of projected settlement and defense costs related to a broad number of policyholders. The increase in the estimate of projected settlement and defense costs primarily resulted from payment trends that continue to be higher than previously anticipated due to the continued high level of mesothelioma claim filings and the impact of the current litigation environment surrounding those claims discussed above. The 2023 charge also included an additional increase to strengthen the Company’s carried reserve position relative to the range of reasonable estimates.
Over the past decade, the property and casualty insurance industry, including the Company, has experienced net unfavorable prior year reserve development with regard to asbestos reserves, but the Company believes that over that period there has been a reduction in the volatility associated with the Company’s overall asbestos exposure as the overall asbestos environment has evolved from one dominated by exposure to significant litigation risks, particularly coverage disputes relating to policyholders in bankruptcy who were asserting that their claims were not subject to the aggregate limits contained in their policies, to an environment primarily driven by a frequency of litigation related to individuals with mesothelioma. The Company’s overall view of the current underlying asbestos environment is essentially unchanged from recent periods, and there remains a high degree of uncertainty with respect to future exposure to asbestos claims.
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The following table displays activity for asbestos losses and loss adjustment expenses and reserves.
| (as of and for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beginning reserves: | |||||||||||
| Gross | $ | 1,708 | $ | 1,768 | $ | 1,674 | |||||
| Ceded | (370) | (390) | (369) | ||||||||
| Net | 1,338 | 1,378 | 1,305 | ||||||||
| Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 327 | 279 | 374 | ||||||||
| Ceded | (50) | (37) | (90) | ||||||||
| Net | 277 | 242 | 284 | ||||||||
| Paid loss and loss adjustment expenses: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 337 | 339 | 281 | ||||||||
| Ceded | (76) | (57) | (69) | ||||||||
| Net | 261 | 282 | 212 | ||||||||
| Foreign exchange and other: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 2 | — | 1 | ||||||||
| Ceded | (1) | — | — | ||||||||
| Net | 1 | — | 1 | ||||||||
| Ending reserves: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 1,700 | 1,708 | 1,768 | ||||||||
| Ceded | (345) | (370) | (390) | ||||||||
| Net | $ | 1,355 | $ | 1,338 | $ | 1,378 |
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADEQUACY OF ASBESTOS RESERVES
As a result of the processes and procedures discussed above, management believes that the reserves carried for asbestos claims are appropriately established based upon known facts, current law and management’s judgment. However, the uncertainties surrounding the final resolution of these claims continue, and it is difficult to determine the ultimate exposure for asbestos claims and related litigation. As a result, these reserves are subject to revision as new information becomes available and as claims develop. The continuing uncertainties include, without limitation:
•the risks and lack of predictability inherent in complex litigation;
•a further increase in the cost to resolve, and/or the number of, asbestos claims beyond that which is anticipated;
•the emergence of a greater number of asbestos claims than anticipated as a result of extended life expectancies resulting from medical advances and lifestyle improvements;
•the role of any umbrella or excess policies we have issued;
•the resolution or adjudication of disputes concerning coverage for asbestos claims in a manner inconsistent with our previous assessment of these disputes;
•the number and outcome of direct actions against us;
•future developments pertaining to our ability to recover reinsurance for asbestos claims;
•any impact on asbestos defendants we insure due to the bankruptcy of other asbestos defendants;
•the unavailability of other insurance sources potentially available to policyholders, whether through exhaustion of policy limits or through the insolvency of other participating insurers; and
•uncertainties arising from the insolvency or bankruptcy of policyholders.
Changes in the legal, regulatory and legislative environment may impact the future resolution of asbestos claims and result in adverse loss reserve development. The emergence of a greater number of asbestos claims beyond that which is anticipated may result in adverse loss reserve development. Changes in applicable legislation and future court and regulatory decisions and interpretations, including the outcome of legal challenges to legislative and/or judicial reforms establishing medical criteria for the pursuit of asbestos claims, could affect the settlement of asbestos claims. It is also difficult to predict the ultimate outcome of complex coverage disputes until settlement negotiations near completion and significant legal questions are resolved or, failing settlement, until the dispute is adjudicated. This is particularly the case with policyholders in bankruptcy where
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negotiations often involve a large number of claimants and other parties and require court approval to be effective. As part of its continuing analysis of asbestos reserves, the Company continues to study the implications of these and other developments.
Because of the uncertainties set forth above, additional liabilities may arise for amounts in excess of the Company’s current reserves. In addition, the Company’s estimate of claims and claim adjustment expenses may change. These additional liabilities or increases in estimates, or a range of either, cannot now be reasonably estimated and could result in income statement charges that could be material to the Company’s operating results in future periods.
INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
The Company’s invested assets as of December 31, 2025 were $101.18 billion, of which 94% was invested in fixed maturity and short-term investments, 1% in equity securities, 1% in real estate investments and 4% in other investments. Because the primary purpose of the investment portfolio is to fund future claims payments, the Company employs a thoughtful investment philosophy that focuses on appropriate risk-adjusted returns. A significant majority of funds available for investment are deployed in a widely diversified portfolio of high quality, liquid, taxable U.S. government, tax-exempt and taxable U.S. municipal and taxable corporate and U.S. agency mortgage-backed bonds.
The carrying value of the Company’s fixed maturity portfolio as of December 31, 2025 was $89.83 billion. The Company closely monitors the duration of its fixed maturity investments, and investment purchases and sales are executed with the objective of having adequate funds available to satisfy the Company’s insurance and debt obligations. The weighted average credit quality of the Company’s fixed maturity portfolio was “Aa2” as of both December 31, 2025 and 2024. The weighted average credit quality of the Company’s fixed maturity portfolio, excluding U.S. Treasury securities, was “Aa3” and “Aa2” as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. Below investment grade securities represented 1.2% of the total fixed maturity investment portfolio as of both December 31, 2025 and 2024. The weighted average effective duration of fixed maturities and short-term securities was 4.7 (5.0 excluding short-term securities) as of December 31, 2025 and 4.3 (4.5 excluding short-term securities) as of December 31, 2024.
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The carrying values of investments in fixed maturities classified as available for sale as of December 31, 2025 and 2024 were as follows:
| 2025 | 2024 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (as of December 31, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | ||||||||
| U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government and government agencies and authorities | $ | 3,857 | Aa1 | $ | 5,570 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||
| Obligations of U.S. states, municipalities and political subdivisions: | ||||||||||||
| Local general obligation | 20,789 | Aaa/Aa1 | 17,023 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Revenue | 9,325 | Aaa/Aa1 | 8,580 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| State general obligation | 848 | Aaa/Aa1 | 1,010 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Pre-refunded | 416 | Aa1 | 572 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Total obligations of U.S. states, municipalities and political subdivisions | 31,378 | 27,185 | ||||||||||
| Debt securities issued by foreign governments | 312 | Aa1 | 909 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Mortgage-backed securities, collateralized mortgage obligations and pass-through securities | 13,232 | Aa1 | 12,605 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Corporate and all other bonds: | ||||||||||||
| Financial: | ||||||||||||
| Bank | 4,815 | A1 | 4,425 | A1 | ||||||||
| Insurance | 2,704 | Aa2 | 2,404 | Aa2 | ||||||||
| Finance/leasing | 71 | Ba1 | 41 | Ba3 | ||||||||
| Brokerage and asset management | 119 | A2 | 165 | A2 | ||||||||
| Total financial | 7,709 | 7,035 | ||||||||||
| Industrial | 25,299 | A3 | 21,940 | A3 | ||||||||
| Public utility | 5,472 | A2 | 4,522 | A2 | ||||||||
| Canadian municipal securities | 285 | Aa1 | 1,641 | Aa1 | ||||||||
| Sovereign corporate securities (2) | 489 | Aaa | 635 | Aaa | ||||||||
| Commercial mortgage-backed securities and project loans (3) | 1,314 | Aaa/Aa1 | 1,152 | Aaa | ||||||||
| Asset-backed and other | 486 | Aa2 | 472 | Aa2 | ||||||||
| Total corporate and all other bonds | 41,054 | 37,397 | ||||||||||
| Total fixed maturities | $ | 89,833 | Aa2 | $ | 83,666 | Aa2 |
___________________________________________
(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist.
(2)Sovereign corporate securities include corporate securities that are backed by a government and include sovereign banks and securities issued under the Federal Ship Financing Programs.
(3)Included in commercial mortgage-backed securities and project loans as of December 31, 2025 and 2024 were $557 million and $327 million of securities guaranteed by the U.S. government, respectively.
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The following table sets forth the Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio rated using external ratings agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist.
| (as of December 31, 2025, in millions) | Carrying Value | Percent of Total Carrying Value | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quality Rating: | |||||||
| Aaa | $ | 24,898 | 27.7 | % | |||
| Aa | 33,027 | 36.7 | |||||
| A | 19,660 | 21.9 | |||||
| Baa | 11,198 | 12.5 | |||||
| Total investment grade | 88,783 | 98.8 | |||||
| Below investment grade | 1,050 | 1.2 | |||||
| Total fixed maturities | $ | 89,833 | 100.0 | % |
Obligations of U.S. States, Municipalities and Political Subdivisions
The Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio as of December 31, 2025 and 2024 included $31.38 billion and $27.19 billion, respectively, of securities which are obligations of U.S. states, municipalities and political subdivisions (collectively referred to as the municipal bond portfolio). The municipal bond portfolio is diversified across the United States, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico and includes general obligation and revenue bonds issued by states, cities, counties, school districts and similar issuers. Included in the municipal bond portfolio as of December 31, 2025 and 2024 were $416 million and $572 million, respectively, of pre-refunded bonds, which are bonds for which U.S. states or municipalities have established irrevocable trusts, almost exclusively comprised of U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government and government agencies and authorities. These trusts were created to fund the payment of principal and interest due under the bonds. The irrevocable trusts are verified as to their sufficiency by an independent verification agent of the underwriter, issuer or trustee. All of the Company’s holdings of securities issued by Puerto Rico and related entities have either been pre-refunded and therefore are defeased by U.S. Treasury securities or have FHA guarantees subject to federal appropriation.
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The following table shows the geographic distribution of the $30.96 billion of municipal bonds as of December 31, 2025 that were not pre-refunded.
| (as of December 31, 2025, in millions) | State General Obligation | Local General Obligation | Revenue | Total Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality(1) | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State: | ||||||||||||||||||
| Texas | $ | 94 | $ | 4,381 | $ | 1,164 | $ | 5,639 | Aaa | |||||||||
| California | — | 2,155 | 409 | 2,564 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Virginia | 70 | 1,119 | 860 | 2,049 | Aaa | |||||||||||||
| North Carolina | 39 | 904 | 425 | 1,368 | Aaa | |||||||||||||
| Minnesota | 124 | 1,048 | 146 | 1,318 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Wisconsin | 126 | 1,027 | 33 | 1,186 | Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Maryland | — | 921 | 117 | 1,038 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Colorado | — | 646 | 392 | 1,038 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Tennessee | — | 943 | 65 | 1,008 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Washington | 69 | 723 | 173 | 965 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Georgia | 156 | 625 | 59 | 840 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Massachusetts | — | 293 | 534 | 827 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| South Carolina | 38 | 608 | 133 | 779 | Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| All others (2) | 132 | 5,396 | 4,815 | 10,343 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 848 | $ | 20,789 | $ | 9,325 | $ | 30,962 | Aaa/Aa1 |
___________________________________________
(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist. Ratings shown are the higher of the rating of the underlying issues or the insurer in the case of securities enhanced by third-party insurance for the payment of principal and interest in the event of issuer default.
(2)No other single state accounted for 2.5% or more of the total non-pre-refunded municipal bonds.
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The following table displays the funding sources for the $9.33 billion of municipal bonds identified as revenue bonds in the foregoing table as of December 31, 2025.
| (as of December 31, 2025, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality(1) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source: | ||||||
| Water | $ | 2,957 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||
| Higher education | 1,981 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Sewer | 912 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Special tax | 515 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Power utilities | 476 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Highway tolls | 246 | Aa2 | ||||
| Transit | 213 | Aa1 | ||||
| Housing | 210 | Aaa | ||||
| Fuel sales | 203 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Health care | 172 | Aa2 | ||||
| Lease | 25 | Aaa | ||||
| Natural gas | 6 | Aa2 | ||||
| Lottery | 3 | Aa1 | ||||
| Industrial | 1 | A2 | ||||
| Other revenue sources | 1,405 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Total | $ | 9,325 | Aaa/Aa1 |
___________________________________________
(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist. Ratings shown are the higher of the rating of the underlying issuer or the insurer in the case of securities enhanced by third-party insurance for the payment of principal and interest in the event of issuer default.
The Company bases its investment decision on the underlying credit characteristics of the municipal security. The weighted average credit rating of the municipal bond portfolio was “Aaa/Aa1” as of December 31, 2025.
Debt Securities Issued by Foreign Governments
The following table shows the geographic distribution of the Company’s long-term fixed maturity investments in debt securities issued by foreign governments as of December 31, 2025.
| (as of December 31, 2025, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign Government: | ||||||
| Canada | $ | 220 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||
| United Kingdom | 87 | Aa3 | ||||
| All others (2,3) | 5 | Aa3 | ||||
| Total | $ | 312 | Aa1 |
___________________________________________
(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist.
(2)The Company does not have direct exposure to sovereign debt issued by the Republic of Ireland, Italy, Greece, Portugal or Spain.
(3) No other country accounted for 2.5% or more of total debt securities issued by foreign governments.
Mortgage-Backed Securities, Collateralized Mortgage Obligations and Pass-Through Securities
The Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio as of December 31, 2025 and 2024 included $13.23 billion and $12.61 billion, respectively, of residential mortgage-backed securities, including pass-through-securities and collateralized mortgage
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obligations (CMOs), all of which are subject to prepayment risk (either shortening or lengthening of duration). While prepayment risk for securities and its effect on income cannot be fully controlled, particularly when interest rates move dramatically, the Company’s investment strategy generally favors securities that reduce this risk within expected interest rate ranges. The Company makes investments in residential CMOs that are either guaranteed by GNMA, FNMA or FHLMC, or if not guaranteed, are senior or super-senior positions within their respective securitizations. Both guaranteed and non-guaranteed residential CMOs allocate the distribution of payments from the underlying mortgages among different classes of bondholders. In addition, non-guaranteed residential CMOs provide structures that allocate the impact of credit losses to different classes of bondholders. Senior and super-senior CMOs are protected, to varying degrees, from credit losses as those losses are initially allocated to subordinated bondholders. The Company’s investment strategy is to purchase CMO tranches that are expected to offer the most favorable return given the Company’s assessment of associated risks. The Company does not purchase residual interests in CMOs. For more information regarding the Company’s investments in residential mortgage-backed securities, see note 3 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities and Project Loans
As of December 31, 2025 and 2024, the Company held commercial mortgage-backed securities (including FHA project loans) of $1.31 billion and $1.15 billion, respectively. For more information regarding the Company’s investments in commercial mortgage-backed securities, see note 3 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Equity Securities, Real Estate and Short-Term Investments
See note 1 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for further information about these invested asset classes.
Other Investments
The Company also invests in private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships, and joint ventures. These asset classes have historically provided a higher return than investments in fixed maturities but are subject to more volatility. The Company also enters into certain derivative financial instruments from time to time that are reported as part of other investments. As of December 31, 2025 and 2024, the carrying value of the Company’s other investments was $4.12 billion and $4.20 billion, respectively. The Company has unfunded commitments to private equity limited partnerships, real estate partnerships and others in which it invests. These commitments totaled $1.41 billion and $1.49 billion as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. It is the opinion of the Company’s management that the Company has adequate liquidity to meet these commitments.
Securities Lending
The Company has, from time to time, engaged in securities lending activities from which it generates net investment income by lending certain of its investments to other institutions for short periods of time. As of December 31, 2025 and 2024, the Company had $473 million and $586 million, respectively, of securities on loan as part of a tri-party lending agreement. The average monthly balance of securities on loan during 2025 and 2024 was $556 million and $555 million, respectively. Borrowers of these securities provide collateral equal to at least 102% of the market value of the loaned securities plus accrued interest. The Company did not incur any investment losses in its securities lending program for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024.
Lloyd’s Trust Deposits
The Company meets its capital requirements to support its underwriting at Lloyd’s using a combination of the share capital and retained earnings of the Company’s subsidiaries participating in Lloyd’s, trust deposits and uncollateralized letters of credit. Securities with a fair value of approximately $13 million as of both December 31, 2025 and 2024 were held by a wholly-owned subsidiary, and $89 million and $86 million held by TRV as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively, were pledged into Lloyd’s trust accounts to provide a portion of the Lloyd’s capital requirements. For more information regarding the Company’s utilization of uncollateralized letters of credit, see “Liquidity and Capital Resources” herein.
Net Unrealized Investment Gains (Losses)
The net unrealized investment losses that were included in shareholders’ equity were as follows:
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| (as of December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed maturities | $ | (1,859) | $ | (4,609) | $ | (3,969) | |||||
| Other | (3) | — | (1) | ||||||||
| Unrealized investment losses before tax | (1,862) | (4,609) | (3,970) | ||||||||
| Tax benefit | (384) | (969) | (841) | ||||||||
| Net unrealized investment losses included in shareholders’ equity at end of year | $ | (1,478) | $ | (3,640) | $ | (3,129) |
Net unrealized investment losses included in shareholders’ equity were $1.48 billion as of December 31, 2025 compared with $3.64 billion as of December 31, 2024. As of December 31, 2025, the Company had $583 million fixed maturity investments reported at fair value for which fair value was less than 80% of amortized cost. As of December 31, 2024, the Company had $1.12 billion fixed maturity investments reported at fair value for which fair value was less than 80% of amortized cost. These year-over-year changes were driven by changes in interest rates. Since the Company generally holds its high-quality fixed maturity investments to maturity, these net unrealized losses are considered temporary in nature and are not expected to result in significant realized losses. In addition, given the temporary nature of net unrealized losses combined with the Company’s strong operating cash flows, which include income received on investments and the proceeds received upon maturity of the investments, the net unrealized investment loss is not expected to meaningfully impact the Company’s assessment of capital adequacy or liquidity. Equity securities, which include common and non-redeemable preferred stocks, are reported at fair value with changes in fair value recognized in net income.
For fixed maturity investments where fair value is less than the carrying value and the Company did not reach a decision to impair, the Company continues to have the intent and ability to hold such investments to a projected recovery in value, which may not be until maturity.
As of both December 31, 2025 and 2024, below investment grade securities comprised 1.2%, of the fair value of the Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio. Included in below investment grade securities as of December 31, 2025 were securities in an unrealized loss position that, in the aggregate, had an amortized cost of $464 million and a fair value of $439 million, resulting in a net pre-tax unrealized investment loss of $25 million. These securities in an unrealized loss position represented less than 1% of both the amortized cost and fair value of the fixed maturity portfolio as of December 31, 2025 and accounted for less than 1% of the total gross pre-tax unrealized investment loss in the fixed maturity portfolio as of December 31, 2025.
Impairment Charges
Impairment charges included in net realized investment losses in the consolidated statement of income were $2 million, $10 million and $12 million for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively. See note 3 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for further information.
Purchases and Sales of Investment Securities
Purchases and sales of investments are based on cash requirements, the characteristics of the insurance liabilities and current market conditions. The Company identifies investments to be sold to achieve its primary investment goals of assuring the Company’s ability to meet policyholder obligations as well as to optimize investment returns, given these obligations.
During the year ended December 31, 2025, the Company incurred pre-tax realized losses of $33 million on the sale of fixed maturity investments having a fair value of $589 million.
CATASTROPHE MODELING
The Company uses various analyses and methods, including proprietary and third-party modeling processes, to make underwriting and reinsurance decisions designed to manage its exposure to catastrophic events. There are no industry-standard methodologies or assumptions for projecting catastrophe exposure. Accordingly, catastrophe estimates provided by different insurers may not be comparable.
The Company actively monitors and evaluates changes in third-party models and, when necessary, calibrates the catastrophe risk model estimates delivered via its own proprietary modeling processes. The Company considers historical loss experience, recent events, underwriting practices, market share analyses, external scientific analysis and various other factors, including non-modeled losses, to refine its proprietary view of catastrophe risk. These proprietary models are updated regularly as new information and techniques emerge.
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Based on the proprietary and third-party models utilized by the Company, the tables below set forth, as of December 31, 2025, the probabilities that estimated losses, comprising claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses (but excluding unallocated claim adjustment expenses), from a single event occurring in a one-year timeframe will equal or exceed the indicated loss amounts (expressed in dollars, net of tax, and as a percentage of the Company’s common equity). For example, on the basis described below the tables, the Company estimates that there is a one percent chance that the Company’s loss from a single U.S. hurricane in a one-year timeframe would equal or exceed $1.7 billion, or 5% of the Company’s common equity as of December 31, 2025.
| Dollars (in billions) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likelihood of Exceedance (1) | Single U.S. Hurricane | Single U.S. Earthquake | |||||
| 2.0% (1-in-50) | $ | 1.5 | $ | 0.6 | |||
| 1.0% (1-in-100) | $ | 1.7 | $ | 0.8 | |||
| 0.4% (1-in-250) | $ | 3.4 | $ | 1.3 | |||
| 0.1% (1-in-1,000) | $ | 9.2 | $ | 2.3 |
| Percentage of Common Equity (2) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likelihood of Exceedance | Single U.S. Hurricane | Single U.S. Earthquake | ||||
| 2.0% (1-in-50) | 4 | % | 2 | % | ||
| 1.0% (1-in-100) | 5 | % | 2 | % | ||
| 0.4% (1-in-250) | 10 | % | 4 | % | ||
| 0.1% (1-in-1,000) | 27 | % | 7 | % |
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(1) An event that has, for example, a 2% likelihood of exceedance is sometimes described as a “1-in-50 year event.” As noted above, however, the probabilities in the table represent the likelihood of losses from a single event equaling or exceeding the indicated threshold loss amount in a one-year timeframe, not over a multi-year timeframe. Also, because the probabilities relate to a single event, the probabilities do not address the likelihood of more than one event occurring in a particular period, and, therefore, the amounts do not address potential aggregate catastrophe losses occurring in a one-year timeframe.
(2) The percentage of common equity is calculated by dividing (a) indicated loss amounts in dollars by (b) total common equity excluding net unrealized investment gains and losses, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity. Net unrealized investment gains and losses can be significantly impacted by both discretionary and other economic factors and are not necessarily indicative of operating trends. Accordingly, the Company’s management uses the percentage of common equity calculated on this basis as a metric to evaluate the potential impact of a single hurricane or single earthquake on the Company’s financial position for purposes of making underwriting and reinsurance decisions.
The loss amounts included in the tables above are based on the Company’s in-force portfolio of direct exposures and do not include assumed business. Additionally, the amounts are as of December 31, 2025, reflect the reinsurance program in place at January 1, 2026, are net of reinsurance, after-tax, and exclude unallocated claim adjustment expenses, which historically have been less than 10% of loss estimates. For further information regarding the Company’s reinsurance, see “Item 1—Business—Reinsurance.” The amounts for hurricanes reflect U.S. exposures and include property exposures, property residual market exposures and an adjustment for certain non-property exposures. The hurricane loss amounts are based on the Company’s catastrophe risk model estimates and include losses from the hurricane hazards of wind and storm surge. The amounts for earthquakes reflect U.S. property and workers’ compensation exposures. These loss amounts include the effects of exposure growth, inflation and modeling updates based on recent trends and scientific analysis. The Company does not believe that the inclusion of hurricane or earthquake losses arising from other geographical areas or other exposures would materially change the estimated loss amounts.
Catastrophe modeling relies upon inputs based on experience, science, engineering and history. These inputs reflect a significant amount of judgment and are subject to changes which may result in volatility in the modeled output. Catastrophe modeling output may also fail to account for risks that are outside the range of normal probability or are otherwise unforeseeable. Catastrophe modeling assumptions include, among others, the portion of purchased reinsurance that is collectible after a catastrophic event, which may prove to be materially incorrect. Consequently, catastrophe modeling estimates are subject to significant uncertainty. In the tables above, the uncertainty associated with the estimated threshold loss amounts increases significantly as the likelihood of exceedance decreases. In other words, in the case of a relatively more remote event (e.g., 1-in-1,000), the estimated threshold loss amount is relatively less reliable. Actual losses from an event could materially exceed the indicated threshold loss amount. In addition, more than one such event could occur in any period.
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Moreover, the Company is exposed to the risk of material losses from other than property and workers’ compensation coverages arising out of hurricanes and earthquakes, and it is exposed to catastrophe losses from perils other than hurricanes and earthquakes, such as tornadoes and other windstorms, hail, wildfires, severe winter weather, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, solar flares and other naturally-occurring events, as well as acts of terrorism and cyber events.
In addition, compared to models for hurricanes, models for earthquakes are less reliable due to there being a more limited number of significant historical events to analyze, while models for tornadoes, hail storms, wildfires and winter storms are newer and may be less reliable due to the highly random geographic nature and size of these events. Accordingly, these models may be less accurate in predicting risks and estimating losses. Further, changes in climate conditions could cause our underlying modeling data to be less predictive, thus limiting our ability to effectively evaluate and manage catastrophe risk. As compared to natural catastrophes, modeling for man-made catastrophes, such as terrorism and cyber events, is even more difficult and less reliable, and for some events (both natural and man-made), models are either in early stages of development and, therefore, not widely adopted, or are not available.
For more information about the Company’s exposure to catastrophe losses, see “Item 1A—Risk Factors—High levels of catastrophe losses, including as a result of factors such as increased concentrations of insured exposures in catastrophe-prone areas and changing climate conditions, could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, our financial position and/or liquidity, and could adversely impact our ratings, our ability to raise capital and the availability and cost of reinsurance” and “Item 1A—Risk Factors—We may be adversely affected if our pricing and capital models provide materially different indications than actual results.”
CHANGING CLIMATE CONDITIONS
Severe weather events over the last few decades underscore the unpredictability of climate trends. For example, the frequency and/or severity of hurricane, tornado, hail and wildfire events in the United States have been more volatile during this time period. The insurance industry has experienced increased catastrophe losses due to a number of potential causal factors, including, in addition to weather/climate variability, aging infrastructure, more people living in, and moving to, high-risk areas, population growth in areas with weaker enforcement of building codes, urban expansion, an increase in the number of amenities included in, and average size of, a home and increased inflation, including as a result of post-event demand surge. We believe that changing climate conditions have also likely added to the frequency and severity of natural disasters and created additional uncertainty as to future trends and exposures. Climate studies by government agencies, academic institutions, catastrophe modeling organizations and other groups indicate that an increase in frequency and/or intensity of hurricanes, hail and severe convective storms, heavy precipitation events and associated river, urban and flash flooding, sea level rise, droughts, heat waves and wildfires has occurred, and can be expected into the future. Understanding the potential impacts of changing climate conditions is important to the Company’s business. Changing climate conditions are expected to evolve over decades. Importantly, because most of its policies renew annually, the Company is able to respond to these changes over time through adjustments to its underwriting strategy, product pricing and related policy terms and conditions, as appropriate. As a result, the Company has focused in recent years on enhancing the strategic management of its catastrophe exposure, adding experts in data science, meteorology, including climate and flood science, wind and structural engineering and geophysics, among other disciplines, to its catastrophe management organization. The Company has also established dedicated teams for each catastrophe peril, with the goal of developing industry-leading scientific and underwriting expertise. This expertise has been incorporated into the Company’s product development, risk selection, pricing, capital allocation and claim response.
The Company discusses how changing climate conditions may present other issues for its business under “Item 1A—Risk Factors” and “Outlook”, including, but not limited to, the following:
•Increasingly unpredictable and severe weather conditions could result in increased frequency and severity of claims under policies issued by the Company. See “Item 1A—Risk Factors—High levels of catastrophe losses, including as a result of factors such as increased concentrations of insured exposures in catastrophe-prone areas and changing climate conditions, could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, our financial position and/or liquidity, and could adversely impact our ratings, our ability to raise capital and the availability and cost of reinsurance” and “—Outlook—Underwriting Gain/Loss.” Moreover, the Company’s catastrophe models may be less reliable due to the increased unpredictability in frequency and severity of severe weather events, emerging trends in climate conditions and regulatory responses to catastrophe events not being appropriately reflected in the models, in addition to the other factors mentioned above. See “Item 7—Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Catastrophe Modeling” and “Item 1A—Risk Factors—We may be adversely affected if our pricing and capital models provide materially different indications than actual results.” Accordingly, the Company may be subject to increased losses from catastrophes and other weather-related events.
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•Changing climate conditions could also impact the creditworthiness of issuers of securities in which the Company invests. For example, water supply adequacy could impact the creditworthiness of bond issuers with significant assets or business activities in the Southwestern United States; more frequent and/or severe hurricanes could impact the creditworthiness of issuers with significant assets or business activities in the Southeastern United States, among other areas; and increased regulation adopted in response to potential changes in climate conditions could impact the creditworthiness of issuers affected by such regulations. In addition, as issuers of securities in which the Company invests become increasingly focused on mitigating the potential environmental impact of their operations, the costs associated with such initiatives could affect the business models and realized returns of such issuers. See “Item 1A—Risk Factors—Our investment portfolio is subject to credit and interest rate risk, and may suffer reduced or low returns or material realized or unrealized losses.”
•Increased regulation adopted in response to potential changes in climate conditions may impact the Company and its customers, including state insurance regulations that could impact the Company’s ability to manage property exposures in areas vulnerable to significant climate driven losses. For example, state laws have been passed that restrict a carrier’s ability to cancel or non-renew certain policies within or adjacent to declared state of emergency zip codes and mandate discounts for risk mitigation practices that may not be effective. If the Company is unable to implement risk-based pricing, modify policy terms or reduce exposures to the extent necessary to address rising losses related to catastrophes and smaller scale weather events (should those increased losses occur), its business may be adversely affected. See “Item 1—Business—Regulation—U.S. State and Federal Regulation—Regulatory and Legislative Responses to Catastrophes.” In addition, climate change regulation could increase the Company’s customers’ costs of doing business. For example, insureds faced with carbon management regulatory requirements may have less available capital for investment in loss prevention and safety features which may, over time, increase loss exposures. Increased regulation may also result in reduced economic activity, which would decrease the amount of insurable assets and businesses, and increased claim costs, to the extent such regulations require that damaged homes or businesses be rebuilt according to more expensive specifications.
•The full range of potential liability exposures related to changing climate conditions continues to evolve. For example, from time to time third parties sue our policyholders alleging that they caused or contributed to losses associated with changing climate conditions. In the event any such policyholders were found to be responsible, it could result in them seeking recovery under policies issued by the Company. Through the Company’s Casualty Emerging Risk Committee and its Sustainability Committee, the Company works to identify and try to assess climate change-related liability issues, which are continually evolving and often hard to fully evaluate. Through the Company’s Property/CAT Committee, the Company regularly reviews emerging issues, including changing climate conditions, to consider potential changes to its modeling and the use of such modeling, as well as to help determine the need for new underwriting strategies, coverage modifications or new products. See “Item 1A—Risk Factors—The effects of emerging claim and coverage issues on our business are uncertain, and court decisions or legislative changes that take place after we issue our policies can result in an unexpected increase in the number of claims and have a material adverse impact on our results of operations and/or our financial position.”
REINSURANCE RECOVERABLES
The Company reinsures a portion of the risks it underwrites in order to control its exposure to losses. For additional discussion regarding the Company’s reinsurance coverage, see “Part I—Item 1—Business—Reinsurance.”
The following table summarizes the composition of the Company’s reinsurance recoverables.
| (as of December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross reinsurance recoverables on paid and unpaid claims and claim adjustment expenses | $ | 4,352 | $ | 3,962 | |||
| Gross structured settlements | 2,469 | 2,626 | |||||
| Mandatory pools and associations | 1,485 | 1,531 | |||||
| Gross reinsurance recoverables | 8,306 | 8,119 | |||||
| Allowance for estimated uncollectible reinsurance | (135) | (119) | |||||
| Less amounts classified as held for sale | 285 | — | |||||
| Net reinsurance recoverables | $ | 7,886 | $ | 8,000 |
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The following table presents the Company’s top five reinsurer groups by reinsurance recoverable as of December 31, 2025 (in millions). Also included is the A.M. Best rating of the Company’s predominant reinsurer from each such reinsurer group as of February 12, 2026.
| Reinsurer Group | Reinsurance Recoverable | A.M. Best Rating of Group’s Predominant Reinsurer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Re Group | $ | 737 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | ||||
| Berkshire Hathaway | 435 | A++ | highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Munich Re Group | 381 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Fairfax Financial Group | 200 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Axa Insurance Group | 183 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings |
As of December 31, 2025, the Company held $904 million of collateral in the form of letters of credit, funds and trust agreements held to fully or partially collateralize certain reinsurance recoverables.
Included in net reinsurance recoverables are amounts related to structured settlements, which are annuities purchased from various life insurance companies to settle certain personal physical injury claims, of which workers’ compensation claims comprise a significant portion. In cases where the Company did not receive a release from the claimant, the amount due from the life insurance company related to the structured settlement is included in the Company’s consolidated balance sheet as a reinsurance recoverable and the related claim cost is included in the liability for claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, as the Company retains the contingent liability to the claimant. If it is expected that the life insurance company is not able to pay, the Company would recognize an impairment of the related reinsurance recoverable if, and to the extent, the purchased annuities are not covered by state guaranty associations. In the event that the life insurance company fails to make the required annuity payments, the Company would be required to make such payments. The following table presents the Company’s top five groups by structured settlements as of December 31, 2025 (in millions). Also included is the A.M. Best rating of the Company’s predominant insurer from each such insurer group as of February 12, 2026.
| Group | Structured Settlements | A.M. Best Rating of Group’s Predominant Insurer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity & Guaranty Life Group | $ | 634 | A | third highest of 16 ratings | ||||
| Genworth Financial Group | 311 | B- | eighth highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| John Hancock Group | 214 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Symetra Financial Corporation | 189 | A | third highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Brighthouse Financial, Inc. | 161 | A | third highest of 16 ratings |
The Company considers the ratings and related outlook assigned to reinsurance companies and life insurance companies by various independent ratings agencies in assessing the adequacy of its allowance for uncollectible amounts.
OUTLOOK
The following discussion provides outlook information for certain key drivers of the Company’s results of operations and capital position.
Premiums. The Company’s earned premiums are a function of net written premium volume. Net written premiums comprise both renewal business and new business and are recognized as earned premium over the term of the underlying policies. When business renews, the amount of net written premiums associated with that business may increase or decrease (renewal premium change) as a result of increases or decreases in rate and/or insured exposures, which the Company considers as a measure of units of exposure (such as the number and value of vehicles or properties insured). Net written premiums from both renewal and new business, and therefore earned premiums, are impacted by competitive market conditions as well as general economic conditions, which, particularly in the case of Business Insurance, affect audit premium adjustments, policy endorsements and mid-term cancellations. Net written premiums may also be impacted by the structure of reinsurance programs and related costs, as well as changes in foreign currency exchange rates.
Overall, the Company expects that retention levels (the amount of expiring premium that renews, before the impact of renewal premium changes) will remain strong during 2026.
Property and casualty insurance market conditions are expected to remain competitive during 2026 for new business. In each of the Company’s business segments, new business generally has less of an impact on underwriting profitability than renewal
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business, given the volume of new business relative to renewal business. However, in periods of meaningful increases in new business, despite its positive impact on underwriting gains over time, the impact of higher new business levels may negatively impact the combined ratio for a period of time. In periods of meaningful decreases in new business, despite its negative impact on underwriting gains over time, the impact of lower new business levels may positively impact the combined ratio for a period of time.
Effective January 1, 2026, the Company renewed a quota share reinsurance agreement with subsidiaries of Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limited (Fidelis) for 2026 pursuant to which the Company assumes 20% of the subject gross written premiums of Fidelis on a risk-attaching basis, subject to a loss ratio cap. The Company’s portion of premiums from Fidelis is reported as part of the International results of Business Insurance. The Company also has a minority investment in Fidelis.
Underwriting Gain/Loss. The Company’s underwriting gain/loss can be significantly impacted by catastrophe losses and net favorable or unfavorable prior year reserve development, as well as underlying underwriting margins. Underlying underwriting margins can be impacted by a number of factors, including variability in non-catastrophe weather, large loss and other loss activity; changes in current period loss estimates resulting from prior period loss development; changes in loss cost trends; changes in business mix; changes in reinsurance coverages and/or costs; premium adjustments; and variability in expenses and assessments.
Catastrophe losses and non-catastrophe weather-related losses are inherently unpredictable from period to period. The Company’s results of operations could be adversely impacted if significant catastrophe and non-catastrophe weather-related losses were to occur.
On average for the ten-year period ended December 31, 2025, the Company experienced approximately 37% of its annual catastrophe losses during the second quarter, primarily arising out of severe wind and hail storms, including tornadoes. Hurricanes, wildfires and winter storms tend to happen at other times of the year and can also have a material impact on the Company’s results of operations. Catastrophe losses incurred in a particular quarter in any given year may differ materially from historical experience. In addition, most of the Company’s reinsurance programs renew on January 1 or July 1 of each year, and, therefore, any changes to the availability, cost or coverage terms of such programs will be effective after such dates.
Over much of the past decade, the Company’s results have included significant amounts of net favorable prior year reserve development driven by better than expected loss experience. However, given the inherent uncertainty in estimating claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, loss experience could develop such that the Company recognizes in future periods higher or lower levels of favorable prior year reserve development, no favorable prior year reserve development or unfavorable prior year reserve development. In addition, the ongoing review of prior year claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, or other changes in current period circumstances, may result in the Company revising current year loss estimates upward or downward in future periods of the current year.
It is possible that changes in economic conditions, the supply chain, international trade, including the impact of tariffs, the labor market and geopolitical tensions, as well as steps taken by federal, state and/or local governments and the Federal Reserve could lead to higher or lower inflation than the Company anticipated, which could in turn lead to an increase or decrease in the Company’s loss costs and the need to strengthen or reduce claims and claim adjustment expense reserves. These impacts of inflation on loss costs and claims and claim adjustment expense reserves could be more pronounced for those lines of business that require a relatively longer period of time to finalize and settle claims for a given accident year and, accordingly, are relatively more inflation sensitive. Higher costs of labor, parts and raw materials adversely impacted severity in recent years in our personal and commercial businesses. Tariff and immigration policy could also impact severity. For a further discussion, see “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors—If actual claims exceed our claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, or if changes in the estimated level of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves are necessary, including as a result of, among other things, changes in the legal/tort, regulatory and economic environments in which the Company operates, our financial results could be materially and adversely affected.”
The Company’s results of operations may be impacted by a number of other factors, including an economic slowdown, a recession, financial market volatility, monetary and fiscal policy measures, heightened geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates, the political and regulatory environment, changes to the U.S. Federal budget and potential changes in tax laws.
Investment Portfolio. The Company expects to continue to focus its investment strategy on maintaining a high-quality investment portfolio and a relatively short average effective duration. The weighted average effective duration of fixed maturities and short-term securities was 4.7 (5.0 excluding short-term securities) as of December 31, 2025. From time to time, the Company enters into short positions in U.S. Treasury futures contracts to manage the duration of its fixed maturity portfolio. As of December 31, 2025, the Company had no open U.S. Treasury futures contracts. The Company regularly evaluates its
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investment alternatives and mix. Currently, the majority of the Company’s investments are comprised of a widely diversified portfolio of high-quality, liquid, taxable U.S. government, tax-exempt and taxable U.S. municipal, taxable corporate and U.S. agency mortgage-backed bonds.
The Company also invests much smaller amounts in equity securities, real estate and private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships, and joint ventures. These investment classes have the potential for higher returns but also the potential for greater volatility and higher degrees of risk, including less stable rates of return and less liquidity.
Approximately 30% of the fixed maturity portfolio is expected to mature over the next three years (including the early redemption of bonds, assuming interest rates (including credit spreads) do not rise significantly by applicable call dates). As a result, the overall yield on and composition of its portfolio could be meaningfully impacted by the types of investments available for reinvestment with the proceeds of maturing bonds.
Net investment income is a material contributor to the Company’s results of operations. Based on the Company’s current expectations for the impact of expected higher reinvestment yields on the Company’s fixed income investments and higher levels of fixed income investments, the Company expects that after-tax net investment income from that portfolio will be approximately $800 million in the first quarter of 2026, increasing to approximately $870 million in the fourth quarter of 2026. This expectation could be impacted by the direction of interest rates and disruptions in global financial markets. Included in other investments are private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships that are accounted for under the equity method of accounting and typically report their financial statement information to the Company one month to three months following the end of the reporting period. Accordingly, net investment income or loss from these other investments is generally reflected in the Company’s financial statements on a quarter lag basis. The Company’s net investment income in future periods from its non-fixed income investment portfolio will be impacted, positively or negatively, by the performance of global financial markets.
The Company had net pre-tax realized investment losses of $48 million in 2025. Changes in global financial markets could result in net realized investment gains or losses in the Company’s investment portfolio.
The Company had a net pre-tax unrealized investment loss of $1.86 billion ($1.48 billion after-tax) in its fixed maturity investment portfolio as of December 31, 2025, compared to $4.61 billion ($3.64 billion after-tax) as of December 31, 2024. The net unrealized investment loss is primarily due to the impact of movements in interest rates. The decrease in the net unrealized investment loss in 2025 was due to decreases in interest rates. While the Company does not attempt to predict future interest rate movements, a rising interest rate environment reduces the market value of fixed maturity investments and, therefore, reduces shareholders’ equity, and a declining interest rate environment has the opposite effects. The net unrealized loss discussed above is considered temporary in nature as it is not due to credit impairments, there is no impact on expected contractual cash flows from fixed maturities, and the Company generally holds its fixed maturity investments to maturity. In addition, given the temporary nature of net unrealized losses combined with the Company’s strong operating cash flows (which include income received on investments and the proceeds received upon maturity of the investments), the net unrealized investment loss is not expected to meaningfully impact the Company’s assessment of capital adequacy or liquidity. Equity securities, which include common and non-redeemable preferred stocks, are reported at fair value with changes in fair value recognized in net income.
Additionally, disruptions in global financial markets could also impact the market value of the Company’s investment portfolio. The Company’s investment portfolio has benefited from certain tax exemptions (primarily those related to interest from municipal bonds) and certain other tax laws, including, but not limited to, those governing dividends-received deductions and tax credits (such as foreign tax credits). Changes in these laws could adversely impact the value of the Company’s investment portfolio. See “Our businesses are heavily regulated by the states and countries in which we conduct business, including licensing, market conduct and financial supervision, and changes in regulation, including changes in tax regulation, may reduce our profitability and limit our growth” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors.”
For further discussion of the Company’s investment portfolio, see “Investment Portfolio.” For a discussion of the risks to the Company’s business during or following a financial market disruption and risks to the Company’s investment portfolio, see the risk factors entitled “During or following a period of financial market disruption or an economic downturn, our business could be materially and adversely affected” and “Our investment portfolio is subject to credit and interest rate risk, and may suffer reduced or low returns or material realized or unrealized losses” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors.” For a discussion of the risks to the Company’s investments from foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations, see the risk factor entitled “We are subject to additional risks associated with our business outside the United States” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors” and see “Part II—Item 7A—Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk—Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk.”
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Capital Position. The Company believes it has a strong capital position and, as part of its ongoing efforts to create shareholder value, expects to continue to return capital not needed to support its business operations to its shareholders, subject to the considerations described below. The Company expects that, generally over time, the combination of dividends to common shareholders and common share repurchases will likely not exceed net income. The Company also expects that to the extent that it continues to grow premium volumes, the level of capital to support the Company’s financial strength ratings will also increase, and accordingly, the amount of capital returned to shareholders relative to earnings would be somewhat less than it otherwise would have been absent the growth in premium volumes. Given the Company’s very strong capital position and earnings over the past four quarters, the Company currently expects to repurchase approximately $1.80 billion of the Company’s common shares in the first quarter of 2026. Included in this amount is $700 million of the net cash proceeds from the sale of the Company’s Canadian insurance business (excluding surety) to Definity Financial Corporation. The timing and actual number of shares to be repurchased in the future will depend on a variety of factors, including the Company’s financial position, earnings, share price, catastrophe losses, maintaining appropriate capital levels for business operations, changes in the levels of written premiums, funding of its qualified pension plan, regulatory capital requirements of the operating insurance subsidiaries, legal requirements, regulatory constraints, other investment opportunities (including mergers and acquisitions and related financings), market conditions, changes in tax laws and other factors. For information regarding the Company’s common share repurchases in 2025, see “Liquidity and Capital Resources” herein.
As a result of the Company’s business outside of the United States, primarily in the United Kingdom (including Lloyd’s), the Republic of Ireland, Canada and in Brazil through a joint venture, the Company’s capital is also subject to the effects of changes in foreign currency exchange rates. Strengthening of the U.S. dollar in comparison to other currencies could result in a reduction in shareholders’ equity, while a weakening of the U.S. dollar in comparison to other currencies could result in an increase in shareholders’ equity. For additional discussion of the Company’s foreign exchange market risk exposure, see “Part II—Item 7A—Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.”
Many of the statements in this “Outlook” section and in “Liquidity and Capital Resources” are forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that are often difficult to predict and beyond the Company’s control. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Further, such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this report and the Company undertakes no obligation to update them. See “—Forward Looking Statements.” For a discussion of potential risks and uncertainties that could impact the Company’s results of operations or financial position, see “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors” and “Critical Accounting Estimates.”
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Liquidity is a measure of a company’s ability to generate sufficient cash flows to meet the cash requirements of its business operations and to satisfy general corporate purposes when needed.
Operating Company Liquidity. The liquidity requirements of the Company’s insurance subsidiaries are met primarily by funds generated from premiums, fees, income received on investments and investment maturities. Cash provided from these sources is used primarily for claims and claim adjustment expense payments and operating expenses. The insurance subsidiaries’ liquidity requirements can be impacted by, among other factors, the timing and amount of catastrophe claims, which are inherently unpredictable, as well as the timing and amount of reinsurance recoveries, which may be affected by reinsurer solvency and reinsurance coverage disputes. Additionally, the variability of asbestos-related claim payments, as well as the volatility of potential judgments and settlements arising out of litigation, may also result in increased liquidity requirements. While an environment of higher interest rates, such as that which occurred during 2023 and 2024, and moderated in 2025, resulted in significant net unrealized investment losses, the net unrealized loss is considered temporary in nature as it is not due to credit impairments, there is no impact on expected contractual cash flows from fixed maturities, and the Company generally holds its high-quality fixed maturity investments to maturity. In addition, given the temporary nature of net unrealized losses combined with the Company’s strong operating cash flows (which include income received on investments and the proceeds received upon maturity of the investments), the net unrealized investment loss is not expected to meaningfully impact the Company’s assessment of capital adequacy or liquidity. It is the opinion of the Company’s management that the insurance subsidiaries’ future liquidity needs will be adequately met from all of the sources described above. Subject to the restrictions imposed by states in which the Company’s insurance subsidiaries are domiciled, the Company’s principal insurance subsidiaries pay dividends to their respective parent companies, which, in turn, pay dividends to the corporate holding (parent) company (TRV). For further information regarding restrictions on dividends paid by the Company’s insurance subsidiaries, see “Part I—Item 1—Business—Regulation.”
Holding Company Liquidity. TRV’s liquidity requirements primarily include shareholder dividends, debt servicing, common share repurchases and, from time to time, contributions to its qualified domestic pension plan. As of December 31, 2025, TRV held total cash and short-term invested assets in the United States aggregating $2.41 billion and having a weighted average
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maturity of 23 days. TRV has established a holding company liquidity target equal to its estimated annual pre-tax interest expense and common shareholder dividends (currently approximately $1.37 billion). TRV’s holding company liquidity of $2.41 billion as of December 31, 2025 exceeded this target, and it is the opinion of the Company’s management that these assets are sufficient to meet TRV’s current liquidity requirements.
TRV is not dependent on dividends or other forms of repatriation from its foreign operations to support its liquidity needs. The undistributed earnings of the Company’s foreign operations are intended to be permanently reinvested in those operations, and such earnings were not material to the Company’s financial position or liquidity as of December 31, 2025.
TRV has a shelf registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission that expires on June 4, 2028 which permits it to issue securities from time to time. TRV also has a $1.0 billion line of credit facility with a syndicate of financial institutions that expires on June 15, 2027. As of December 31, 2025, the Company had $100 million of commercial paper outstanding. TRV is not reliant on its commercial paper program to meet its operating cash flow needs. The Company has $200 million of senior notes maturing in April 2026.
The Company utilized uncollateralized letters of credit issued by major banks with an aggregate limit of $260 million to provide a portion of the capital needed to support its obligations at Lloyd’s as of December 31, 2025. If uncollateralized letters of credit are not available at a reasonable price or at all in the future, the Company can collateralize these letters of credit or may have to seek alternative means of supporting its obligations at Lloyd’s, which could include utilizing holding company funds on hand.
Operating Activities
Net cash provided by operating activities was $10.61 billion and $9.07 billion in 2025 and 2024, respectively. The increase in cash flows in 2025 primarily reflected the impacts of higher levels of cash received for premiums, partially offset by higher levels of payments for general and administrative expenses and commissions. The increase in cash received for premiums in 2025 compared to the prior year was impacted by business growth including the impact of positive renewal premium changes.
Investing Activities
Net cash used in investing activities was $7.65 billion and $7.26 billion in 2025 and 2024, respectively. The Company’s consolidated total investments as of December 31, 2025 increased by $6.96 billion, or 7% over December 31, 2024, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) net cash flows provided by operating activities and (ii) lower net unrealized investment losses on investments due to the impact of lower interest rates during 2025, partially offset by (iii) total investments reclassified as held for sale and (iv) net cash used in financing activities.
The Company’s investment portfolio is managed to support its insurance operations; accordingly, the portfolio is positioned to meet obligations to policyholders. As such, the primary goals of the Company’s asset-liability management process are to satisfy the insurance liabilities and maintain sufficient liquidity to cover fluctuations in projected liability cash flows. Generally, the expected principal and interest payments produced by the Company’s fixed maturity portfolio adequately fund the estimated runoff of the Company’s insurance reserves. Although this is not an exact cash flow match in each period, the substantial amount by which the market value of the fixed maturity portfolio exceeds the value of the net insurance liabilities, as well as the positive cash flow from newly sold policies and the large amount of high quality liquid bonds, contributes to the Company’s ability to fund claim payments without having to sell illiquid assets or access credit facilities.
Financing Activities
Net cash used in financing activities was $2.66 billion and $1.75 billion in 2025 and 2024, respectively. The totals in both 2025 and 2024 reflected common share repurchases and dividends paid to shareholders, partially offset by the net proceeds from employee stock option exercises. The total in 2025 also included net proceeds from the issuance of debt. Common share repurchases in 2025 and 2024 were $3.13 billion and $1.12 billion, respectively.
Debt Transactions.
2025. On July 24, 2025, the Company issued a total of $1.25 billion of debt in two tranches:
•$500 million aggregate principal amount of 5.05% senior notes that will mature on July 24, 2035 (the “2035 notes”), and
•$750 million aggregate principal amount of 5.70% senior notes that will mature on July 24, 2055 (the “2055 notes” and together with the 2035 notes, the “senior notes”).
The net proceeds of the issuance, after deducting the underwriting discount and expenses payable by the Company, totaled approximately $1.23 billion. Interest on the senior notes is payable semi-annually in arrears on January 24 and July 24.
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The 2035 notes may be redeemed prior to April 24, 2035, in whole or in part, at the Company’s option, at any time or from time to time, at a redemption price equal to the greater of (a) 100% of the principal amount of any 2035 notes to be redeemed or (b) the sum of the present values of the remaining scheduled payments of principal and interest to but excluding April 24, 2035 on any 2035 notes to be redeemed (exclusive of interest accrued to the date of redemption) discounted to the date of redemption on a semi-annual basis (assuming a 360-day year consisting of twelve 30-day months) at the then current Treasury Rate (as defined in the 2035 notes), plus 15 basis points. On or after April 24, 2035, the 2035 notes may be redeemed, in whole or in part, at the Company’s option, at any time or from time to time, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of any 2035 notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the redemption date.
The 2055 notes may be redeemed prior to January 24, 2055, in whole or in part, at the Company’s option, at any time or from time to time, at a redemption price equal to the greater of (a) 100% of the principal amount of any 2055 notes to be redeemed or (b) the sum of the present values of the remaining scheduled payments of principal and interest to but excluding January 24, 2055 on any 2055 notes to be redeemed (exclusive of interest accrued to the date of redemption) discounted to the date of redemption on a semi-annual basis (assuming a 360-day year consisting of twelve 30-day months) at the then current Treasury Rate (as defined in the 2055 notes), plus 15 basis points. On or after January 24, 2055, the 2055 notes may be redeemed, in whole or in part, at the Company’s option, at any time or from time to time, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of any 2055 notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the redemption date.
Dividends. Dividends paid to shareholders were $979 million and $951 million in 2025 and 2024, respectively. The declaration and payment of future dividends to holders of the Company’s common stock will be at the discretion of the Company’s Board of Directors and will depend upon many factors, including the Company’s financial position, earnings, capital requirements of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, legal requirements, regulatory constraints and other factors as the Board of Directors deems relevant. Dividends will be paid by the Company only if declared by its Board of Directors out of funds legally available, subject to any other restrictions that may be applicable to the Company. On January 21, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.10 per share, payable March 31, 2026, to shareholders of record on March 10, 2026.
Share Repurchases. The Company’s Board of Directors has approved common share repurchase authorizations under which repurchases may be made from time to time in the open market, pursuant to pre-set trading plans meeting the requirements of Rule 10b5-1 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, in private transactions or otherwise. The authorizations do not have a stated expiration date. The Company expects that, generally over time, the combination of dividends to common shareholders and common share repurchases will likely not exceed net income. The Company also expects that to the extent that it continues to grow premium volumes, the amount of capital returned to shareholders relative to earnings would be somewhat less than it otherwise would have been absent the growth in premium volumes. The timing and actual number of shares to be repurchased in the future will depend on a variety of factors, including the Company’s financial position, earnings, share price, catastrophe losses, maintaining appropriate capital levels for business operations, changes in the levels of written premiums, funding of its qualified pension plan, regulatory capital requirements of the operating insurance subsidiaries, legal requirements, regulatory constraints, other investment opportunities (including mergers and acquisitions and related financings), market conditions, changes in tax laws and other factors. During 2025, the Company repurchased 10.9 million shares under its share repurchase authorizations, for a total of $3.03 billion. The average cost per share repurchased was $277.17. Common share repurchases in 2025 were higher than the total of $1.00 billion in 2024. The cost of the treasury stock acquired pursuant to common share repurchases includes the 1% federal excise tax imposed as part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. As of December 31, 2025, the Company had $2.02 billion of capacity remaining under its share repurchase authorizations. The most recent authorization was approved by the Board of Directors on January 21, 2026 and added $5.0 billion of repurchase capacity to the $2.02 billion capacity remaining at that date, which was previously approved by the Board of Directors on April 19, 2023.
From the inception of the first authorization on May 2, 2006 through December 31, 2025, the Company has repurchased a cumulative total of 559.2 million shares for a total of $43.99 billion, or an average of $78.66 per share.
In both 2025 and 2024, the Company acquired 0.7 million shares of common stock from employees as treasury stock primarily to cover payroll withholding taxes in connection with the vesting of restricted stock unit awards and performance share awards, and shares used by employees to cover the exercise price, as well as the related payroll withholding taxes, for stock options that were exercised.
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Capital Resources
Capital resources reflect the overall financial strength of the Company and its ability to borrow funds at competitive rates and raise new capital to meet its needs. The following table summarizes the components of the Company’s capital structure as of December 31, 2025 and 2024.
| (as of December 31, in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt: | |||||||
| Short-term | $ | 300 | $ | 100 | |||
| Long-term | 9,054 | 8,004 | |||||
| Net unamortized fair value adjustments and debt issuance costs | (87) | (71) | |||||
| Total debt | 9,267 | 8,033 | |||||
| Shareholders’ equity: | |||||||
| Common stock and retained earnings, less treasury stock | 35,394 | 32,831 | |||||
| Accumulated other comprehensive loss | (2,500) | (4,967) | |||||
| Total shareholders’ equity | 32,894 | 27,864 | |||||
| Total capitalization | $ | 42,161 | $ | 35,897 |
Total capitalization as of December 31, 2025 was $42.16 billion, $6.26 billion higher than at December 31, 2024, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) net income of $6.29 billion, (ii) other comprehensive income of $2.47 billion, primarily reflecting a decrease in net unrealized losses on investments due to a change in interest rates during 2025, (iii) an increase in debt outstanding of $1.23 billion and (iv) proceeds from the exercise of employee share options of $214 million, partially offset by (v) common share repurchases totaling $3.03 billion under the Company’s share repurchase authorizations and (vi) shareholder dividends of $987 million.
The following table provides a reconciliation of total capitalization presented in the foregoing table to total capitalization excluding net unrealized losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity.
| (as of December 31, dollars in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total capitalization | $ | 42,161 | $ | 35,897 | |||
| Less: net unrealized losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity | (1,478) | (3,640) | |||||
| Total capitalization excluding net unrealized losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity | $ | 43,639 | $ | 39,537 | |||
| Debt-to-total capital ratio | 22.0 | % | 22.4 | % | |||
| Debt-to-total capital ratio excluding net unrealized losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity | 21.2 | % | 20.3 | % |
The debt-to-total capital ratio excluding net unrealized gains (losses) on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity, is calculated by dividing (a) debt by (b) total capitalization excluding net unrealized gains and losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity. Net unrealized gains and losses on investments can be significantly impacted by both interest rate movements and other economic factors. Accordingly, in the opinion of the Company’s management, the debt-to-total capital ratio calculated on this basis provides another useful metric for investors to understand the Company’s financial leverage position. The Company’s ratio of debt-to-total capital excluding after-tax net unrealized investment losses included in shareholders’ equity of 21.2% as of December 31, 2025 was within the Company’s target range of 15% to 25%.
Credit Agreement. The Company is a party to a five-year, $1.0 billion revolving credit agreement with a syndicate of financial institutions that expires on June 15, 2027. Terms of the credit agreement are discussed in more detail in note 9 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Shelf Registration. The Company has filed a universal shelf registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission that expires on June 4, 2028 for the potential offering and sale of securities. The Company may offer these securities from time to time at prices and on other terms to be determined at the time of offering.
Share Repurchase Authorizations. As of December 31, 2025, the Company had $2.02 billion of capacity remaining under its share repurchase authorizations approved by the Board of Directors.
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Cash Requirements from Contractual and Other Obligations
The following table summarizes, as of December 31, 2025, the Company’s estimated future payments under material contractual obligations and estimated claims and claim-related payments. The table includes only obligations as of December 31, 2025 that are expected to be settled in cash and excludes amounts held for sale.
The table below includes the amount and estimated future timing of claims and claim-related payments. The amounts do not represent the exact liability, but instead represent estimates, generally utilizing actuarial projection techniques, at a given accounting date. These estimates include expectations of what the ultimate settlement and administration of claims will cost based on the Company’s assessment of facts and circumstances known, review of historical settlement patterns, estimates of trends in claims severity, frequency, legal theories of liability and other factors. Variables in the reserve estimation process can be affected by both internal and external events, such as changes in claims handling procedures, economic inflation or deflation, legal trends and legislative changes. Many of these items are not directly quantifiable, particularly on a prospective basis. Additionally, there may be significant reporting lags between the occurrence of the policyholder event and the time it is actually reported to the insurer. The future cash flows related to the items contained in the table below required estimation of both amount (including severity considerations) and timing. Amount and timing are frequently estimated separately. An estimation of both amount and timing of future cash flows related to claims and claim-related payments has unavoidable estimation uncertainty.
The material cash requirements from contractual and other obligations as of December 31, 2025 were as follows:
| Payments Due by Period (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt | |||||||||||||||||||
| Senior notes | $ | 9,000 | $ | 200 | $ | — | $ | — | $ | 8,800 | |||||||||
| Junior subordinated debentures | 254 | — | 125 | — | 129 | ||||||||||||||
| Total debt principal | 9,254 | 200 | 125 | — | 8,929 | ||||||||||||||
| Interest | 8,185 | 449 | 873 | 864 | 5,999 | ||||||||||||||
| Total long-term debt obligations (1) | 17,439 | 649 | 998 | 864 | 14,928 | ||||||||||||||
| Real estate and other operating leases (2) | 332 | 78 | 124 | 64 | 66 | ||||||||||||||
| Information systems-related commitments (3) | 988 | 566 | 361 | 61 | — | ||||||||||||||
| Unfunded investment commitments (4) | 1,409 | 280 | 423 | 483 | 223 | ||||||||||||||
| Estimated claims and claim-related payments | |||||||||||||||||||
| Claims and claim adjustment expenses (5) | 64,436 | 15,328 | 17,067 | 8,463 | 23,578 | ||||||||||||||
| Claims from large deductible policies (6) | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| Total estimated claims and claim-related payments | 64,436 | 15,328 | 17,067 | 8,463 | 23,578 | ||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 84,604 | $ | 16,901 | $ | 18,973 | $ | 9,935 | $ | 38,795 |
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(1)See note 9 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for a further discussion of outstanding indebtedness. Because the amounts reported in the foregoing table include principal and interest, the total long-term debt obligations will not agree with the amounts reported in note 9.
(2)Represents agreements entered into in the ordinary course of business to lease office space, equipment and furniture.
(3)Includes agreements with vendors to purchase system software (including software as a service), software maintenance services and technology-related costs.
(4)Represents estimated timing for fulfilling unfunded commitments for private equity limited partnerships, real estate partnerships and other investments.
(5)The amounts in “Claims and claim adjustment expenses” in the table above represent the estimated timing of future payments for both reported and unreported claims incurred and related claim adjustment expenses, gross of reinsurance recoverables, excluding structured settlements expected to be paid by annuity companies.
The Company has entered into reinsurance agreements to manage its exposure to losses and protect its capital as described in note 6 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
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In order to qualify for reinsurance accounting, a reinsurance agreement must indemnify the insurer from insurance risk, i.e., the agreement must transfer amount and timing risk. Since the timing and amount of cash inflows from such reinsurance agreements are directly related to the underlying payment of claims and claim adjustment expenses by the insurer, reinsurance recoverables are recognized in a manner consistent with the liabilities (the estimated liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses) relating to the underlying reinsured contracts. The presence of any feature that can delay timely reimbursement of claims by a reinsurer results in the reinsurance contract being accounted for as a deposit rather than reinsurance. The assumptions used in estimating the amount and timing of the reinsurance recoverables are consistent with those used in estimating the amount and timing of the related liabilities.
The estimated future cash inflows from the Company’s reinsurance contracts that qualify for reinsurance accounting are as follows:
| (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance recoverables | $ | 5,221 | $ | 908 | $ | 1,142 | $ | 641 | $ | 2,530 |
The Company manages its business and evaluates its liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses on a net of reinsurance basis. The estimated cash flows on a net of reinsurance basis are as follows:
| (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claims and claim adjustment expenses, net | $ | 59,215 | $ | 14,420 | $ | 15,925 | $ | 7,822 | $ | 21,048 |
For business underwritten by non-U.S. operations, future cash flows related to reported and unreported claims incurred and related claim adjustment expenses were translated at the spot rate on December 31, 2025.
The amounts reported in the table above and in the table of reinsurance recoverables above are presented on a nominal basis and have not been adjusted to reflect the time value of money. Accordingly, the amounts above will differ from the Company’s balance sheet to the extent that the liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses and the related reinsurance recoverables have been discounted in the balance sheet. See note 1 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
(6) Workers’ compensation large deductible policies provide third-party coverage in which the Company typically is responsible for paying the entire loss under such policies and then seeks reimbursement from the insured for the deductible amount. “Claims from large deductible policies” represent the estimated future payment for claims and claim related expenses below the deductible amount, net of the estimated recovery of the deductible. The liability and the related deductible receivable for unpaid claims are presented in the consolidated balance sheet as “contractholder payables” and “contractholder receivables,” respectively. Most deductibles for such policies are paid directly from the policyholder’s escrow, which is periodically replenished by the policyholder. The payment of the loss amounts above the deductible are reported within “Claims and claim adjustment expenses” in the above table. Because the timing of the collection of the deductible (contractholder receivables) occurs shortly after the payment of the deductible to a claimant (contractholder payables), these cash flows offset each other in the table.
The estimated timing of the payment of the contractholder payables and the collection of contractholder receivables (net of allowance for expected credit losses) for workers’ compensation policies is presented below:
| (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contractholder payables/receivables | $ | 3,010 | $ | 968 | $ | 924 | $ | 402 | $ | 716 |
The above table does not include an analysis of liabilities reported for structured settlements for which the Company has purchased annuities and remains contingently liable in the event of default by the company issuing the annuity. The Company is not reasonably likely to incur material future payment obligations under such agreements. In addition, the Company is not currently subject to any minimum funding requirements for its qualified pension plan. Accordingly, future contributions are not included in the foregoing table.
The Company believes that the combination of operating company liquidity, holding company liquidity, its investment portfolio and its capital resources are sufficient to meet its contractual obligations.
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Dividend Availability
The Company’s principal insurance subsidiaries are domiciled in the State of Connecticut. The insurance holding company laws of Connecticut applicable to the Company’s subsidiaries requires notice to, and approval by, the state insurance commissioner for the declaration or payment of any dividend that, together with other distributions made within the preceding twelve months, exceeds the greater of 10% of the insurer’s statutory capital and surplus as of the preceding December 31, or the insurer’s net income for the twelve-month period ending the preceding December 31, in each case determined in accordance with statutory accounting practices and by state regulation. This declaration or payment is further limited by adjusted unassigned surplus, as determined in accordance with statutory accounting practices. The insurance holding company laws of other states in which the Company’s subsidiaries are domiciled generally contain similar, although in some instances somewhat more restrictive, limitations on the payment of dividends. A maximum of $5.92 billion is available by the end of 2026 for such dividends to ultimately be paid to the holding company, TRV, without prior approval of the Connecticut Insurance Department. The Company may choose to accelerate the timing within 2026 and/or increase the amount of dividends from its insurance subsidiaries in 2026, which could result in certain dividends being subject to approval by the Connecticut Insurance Department prior to payment.
In addition to the regulatory restrictions on the amount of dividends that can be paid by the Company’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries, the maximum amount of dividends that may be paid to the Company’s shareholders is also limited, to a lesser degree, by certain covenants contained in its line of credit agreement with a syndicate of financial institutions that require the Company to maintain a minimum consolidated net worth as described in note 9 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
TRV is not dependent on dividends or other forms of repatriation from its foreign operations to support its liquidity needs. The undistributed earnings of the Company’s foreign operations are intended to be permanently reinvested in those operations, and such earnings were not material to the Company’s financial position or liquidity as of December 31, 2025.
The U.S. insurance subsidiaries paid dividends of $3.25 billion and $2.00 billion during 2025 and 2024, respectively.
Pension and Other Postretirement Benefit Plans
The Company sponsors a qualified non-contributory defined benefit pension plan (the qualified domestic pension plan), which covers substantially all U.S. domestic employees and provides benefits primarily under a cash balance formula. In addition, the Company sponsors a nonqualified defined benefit pension plan which covers certain highly-compensated employees, pension plans for employees of its foreign subsidiaries, and a postretirement health and life insurance benefit plan for employees satisfying certain age and service requirements and for certain retirees.
The qualified domestic pension plan is subject to regulations under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 as amended (ERISA), which requires plans to meet minimum standards of funding and requires such plans to subscribe to plan termination insurance through the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). The Company does not have a minimum funding requirement for the qualified domestic pension plan for 2026 and does not anticipate having a minimum funding requirement in 2027. The Company has significant discretion in making contributions above those necessary to satisfy the minimum funding requirements. In 2025, 2024 and 2023, there was no minimum funding requirement for the qualified domestic pension plan. In 2025, 2024 and 2023, the Company made no voluntary contributions to the qualified domestic pension plan. The qualified domestic pension plan had a funded status of 132% and 130% as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. Based on its funded status as of December 31, 2025, the Company does not currently anticipate making a voluntary contribution to the qualified domestic pension plan in 2026. In determining future contributions, the Company will consider the performance of the plan’s investment portfolio, the effects of interest rates on the projected benefit obligation of the plan and the Company’s other capital requirements.
The qualified domestic pension plan assets are managed to maximize long-term total return while maintaining an appropriate level of risk. The Company’s overall investment strategy is to achieve a mix of approximately 85% to 90% of investments for long-term growth and 10% to 15% for near-term benefit payments with a diversification of asset types, fund strategies and fund managers. The current target allocations for plan assets are 55% to 65% equity securities and 20% to 40% fixed income securities, with the remainder allocated to short-term securities. For 2026, the Company plans to apply an expected long-term rate of return on plan assets of 7.00%, comparable with 2025. The expected rate of return reflects the Company’s current expectations with regard to long-term returns in the capital markets, taking into account the pension plan’s asset allocation targets, the historical performance and current valuation of U.S. and international equities, and the level of long term interest rate and inflation expectations.
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For further discussion of the pension and other postretirement benefit plans, see note 15 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Risk-Based Capital
The NAIC has an RBC requirement for most property and casualty insurance companies, which determines minimum capital requirements and is intended to raise the level of protection for policyholder obligations. The Company’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries are subject to these NAIC RBC requirements based on laws that have been adopted by individual states. These requirements subject insurers having policyholders’ surplus less than that required by the RBC calculation to varying degrees of regulatory action, depending on the level of capital inadequacy. Each of the Company’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries had policyholders’ surplus as of December 31, 2025 significantly above the level at which any RBC regulatory action would occur. Regulators in the jurisdictions in which the Company’s foreign insurance subsidiaries are located require insurance companies to maintain certain levels of capital depending on, among other things, the type and amount of insurance policies written. Each of the Company’s foreign insurance subsidiaries had capital significantly above their respective regulatory requirements as of December 31, 2025.
Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements
The Company has entered into certain contingent obligations for guarantees related to selling businesses to third parties, certain investments, certain insurance policy obligations of former insurance subsidiaries and various other indemnifications. See note 17 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements. The Company does not believe it is reasonably likely that these arrangements will have a material current or future effect on the Company’s financial position, changes in financial position, revenues and expenses, results of operations, liquidity, capital expenditures or capital resources.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
The Company considers its most significant accounting estimates to be those applied to claims and claim adjustment expense reserves and related reinsurance recoverables, and impairments of investments, goodwill and other intangible assets.
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expense Reserves
Gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves by product line were as follows:
| December 31, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in millions) | Case | IBNR | Total | Case | IBNR | Total | |||||||||||||||||
| General liability | $ | 6,036 | $ | 12,769 | $ | 18,805 | $ | 5,845 | $ | 11,349 | $ | 17,194 | |||||||||||
| Commercial property | 1,270 | 465 | 1,735 | 1,384 | 342 | 1,726 | |||||||||||||||||
| Commercial multi-peril | 3,180 | 3,818 | 6,998 | 3,015 | 3,438 | 6,453 | |||||||||||||||||
| Commercial automobile | 2,883 | 3,754 | 6,637 | 2,749 | 3,195 | 5,944 | |||||||||||||||||
| Workers’ compensation | 10,195 | 8,224 | 18,419 | 9,980 | 8,749 | 18,729 | |||||||||||||||||
| Fidelity and surety | 146 | 654 | 800 | 210 | 571 | 781 | |||||||||||||||||
| Personal automobile | 2,326 | 2,523 | 4,849 | 2,315 | 2,588 | 4,903 | |||||||||||||||||
| Personal homeowners and other | 1,577 | 1,980 | 3,557 | 1,238 | 1,833 | 3,071 | |||||||||||||||||
| International and other | 2,762 | 3,081 | 5,843 | 2,561 | 2,726 | 5,287 | |||||||||||||||||
| Property-casualty | 30,375 | 37,268 | 67,643 | 29,297 | 34,791 | 64,088 | |||||||||||||||||
| Accident and health | 3 | — | 3 | 5 | — | 5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Less amounts classified as held for sale | 1,123 | 786 | 1,909 | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||
| Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves | $ | 29,255 | $ | 36,482 | $ | 65,737 | $ | 29,302 | $ | 34,791 | $ | 64,093 |
The $3.56 billion increase in gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves since December 31, 2024 primarily reflected the impacts of (i) catastrophe losses in 2025, (ii) higher volumes of insured exposures and (iii) loss cost trends for the current accident year, partially offset by (iv) claim payments made during 2025 and (v) net favorable prior year reserve development.
Asbestos reserves are included in the General liability, Commercial multi-peril and International and other lines in the foregoing summary table. Asbestos reserves are discussed separately; see “Asbestos Claims and Litigation” and “Uncertainty Regarding Adequacy of Asbestos Reserves” herein.
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Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves represent management’s estimate of the ultimate liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses for claims that have been reported and claims that have been incurred but not yet reported (IBNR) as of the balance sheet date. Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves do not represent an exact calculation of liability, but instead represent management estimates, primarily utilizing actuarial expertise and projection methods. These estimates are expectations of what the ultimate settlement and administration of claims will cost upon final resolution in the future, based on the Company’s assessment of facts and circumstances then known, review of historical settlement patterns, estimates of trends in claims severity and frequency, expected interpretations of legal theories of liability and other factors. In establishing gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, the Company also considers salvage and subrogation. Estimated recoveries from reinsurance are included in “Reinsurance Recoverables” as an asset on the Company’s consolidated balance sheet. The claims and claim adjustment expense reserves are reviewed regularly by qualified actuaries employed by the Company.
The process of estimating claims and claim adjustment expense reserves involves a high degree of judgment and is subject to a number of variables. These variables can be affected by both internal and external events, such as changes in claims handling procedures, changes in individuals involved in the reserve estimation process, economic inflation, changes in the tort environment, legal trends and legislative changes, among others. The impact of many of these items on ultimate costs for claims and claim adjustment expenses is difficult to estimate. Estimation difficulties also differ significantly by product line due to differences in claim complexity, the volume of claims, the potential severity of individual claims, the determination of occurrence date for a claim and reporting lags (the time between the occurrence of the policyholder event and when it is actually reported to the insurer). Informed judgment is applied throughout the process, including the application of various individual experiences and expertise to multiple sets of data and analyses. The Company refines its estimates in a regular ongoing process as historical loss experience develops and additional claims are reported and settled. The Company rigorously attempts to consider all significant facts and circumstances known at the time claims and claim adjustment expense reserves are established. Due to the inherent uncertainty underlying these estimates including, but not limited to, the future settlement environment, final resolution of the estimated liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses may be higher or lower than the related claims and claim adjustment expense reserves at the reporting date. Therefore, actual paid losses, as claims are settled in the future, may be materially different than the amount currently recorded-favorable or unfavorable. Because establishment of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves is an inherently uncertain process involving estimates and the application of judgment, currently established claims and claim adjustment expense reserves may change. The Company reflects adjustments to the reserves in the results of operations in the period the estimates are changed.
There are also additional risks which impact the estimation of ultimate costs for catastrophes. For example, the estimation of reserves related to hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires and other catastrophic events can be affected by the inability of the Company and its insureds to access portions of the impacted areas, the complexity of factors contributing to the losses, the legal and regulatory uncertainties, including the interpretation of policy terms and conditions, and the nature of the information available to establish the reserves. Complex factors include, but are not limited to: determining whether damage was caused by flooding versus wind; evaluating general liability and pollution exposures; estimating additional living expenses; estimating the impact of demand surge, infrastructure disruption, fraud, the effect of mold damage and business interruption costs; and reinsurance collectibility. The timing of a catastrophe, such as at or near the end of a reporting period, can also affect the information available to the Company in estimating reserves for that reporting period. The estimates related to catastrophes are adjusted as actual claims emerge.
A portion of the Company’s gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves (totaling $1.70 billion as of December 31, 2025) are for asbestos claims and related litigation. While the ongoing review of asbestos claims and associated liabilities considers the inconsistencies of court decisions as to coverage, plaintiffs’ expanded theories of liability and the risks inherent in complex litigation and other uncertainties, in the opinion of the Company’s management, it is possible that the outcome of the continued uncertainties regarding these claims could result in liability in future periods that differs from current insurance reserves by an amount that could be material to the Company’s future operating results. See the preceding discussion of “Asbestos Claims and Litigation.”
General Discussion
The process for estimating the liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses begins with the collection and analysis of claim data. Data on individual reported claims, both current and historical, including paid amounts and individual claim adjuster estimates, are grouped by common characteristics (components) and evaluated by actuaries in their analyses of ultimate claim liabilities. Such data is occasionally supplemented with external data as available and when appropriate. The process of analyzing reserves for a component is undertaken on a regular basis, generally quarterly, in light of continually updated information.
Multiple estimation methods are available for the analysis of ultimate claim liabilities. Each estimation method has its own set of assumption variables and its own advantages and disadvantages, with no single estimation method being better than the
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others in all situations and no one set of assumption variables being meaningful for all product line components. The relative strengths and weaknesses of the particular estimation methods when applied to a particular group of claims can also change over time. Therefore, the actual choice of estimation method(s) can change with each evaluation. The estimation method(s) chosen are those that are believed to produce the most reliable indication at that particular evaluation date for the claim liabilities being evaluated.
In most cases, multiple estimation methods will be valid for the particular facts and circumstances of the claim liabilities being evaluated. This will result in a range of reasonable estimates for any particular claim liability. The Company uses such range analyses to back test whether previously established estimates for reserves by reporting segments are reasonable, given available information. Reported values found to be closer to the endpoints of a range of reasonable estimates are subject to further detailed reviews. These reviews may substantiate the validity of management’s recorded estimate or lead to a change in the reported estimate.
The exact boundary points of these ranges are more qualitative than quantitative in nature, as no clear line of demarcation exists to determine when the set of underlying assumptions for an estimation method switches from being reasonable to unreasonable. As a result, the Company does not believe that the endpoints of these ranges are or would be comparable across companies. In addition, potential interactions among the different estimation assumptions for different product lines make the aggregation of individual ranges a highly judgmental and inexact process.
Property-casualty insurance policies are either written on a “claims-made” or on an “occurrence” basis. Claims-made policies generally cover, subject to requirements in individual policies, claims reported during the policy period. Policies that are written on an occurrence basis require that the insured demonstrate that a loss occurred in the policy period, even if the insured reports the loss many years later.
Most general liability policies are written on an occurrence basis. These policies are subject to substantial loss development over time as facts and circumstances change in the years following the policy issuance. The occurrence form, which accounts for much of the reserve development in asbestos exposures, is also used to provide coverage for construction general liability, including construction defect. Occurrence-based forms of insurance for general liability exposures require substantial projection of loss trends, which can be influenced by a number of factors, including future inflation, judicial interpretations and societal litigation trends (e.g., size of jury awards and propensity of individuals to pursue litigation), among others.
A basic premise in most actuarial analyses is that past patterns demonstrated in the data will repeat themselves in the future, absent a material change in the associated risk factors discussed below. To the extent a material change affecting the ultimate claim liability is known, such change is estimated to the extent possible through an analysis of internal company data and, if available and when appropriate, external data. Such a measurement is specific to the facts and circumstances of the particular claim portfolio and the known change being evaluated. Significant structural changes to the available data, product mix or organization can materially impact the reserve estimation process. In addition, the introduction of new products creates a unique risk as historical company data would typically not be available.
Informed judgment is applied throughout the reserving process. This includes the application of various individual experiences and expertise to multiple sets of data and analyses. In addition to actuaries, experts involved with the reserving process also include underwriting and claims personnel and lawyers, as well as other company management. Therefore, management may have to consider varying individual viewpoints as part of its estimation of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves. It is also likely that during periods of significant change, such as a merger, consistent application of informed judgment becomes even more complicated and difficult.
The variables discussed above in this general discussion have different impacts on reserve estimation uncertainty for a given product line, depending on the length of the claim tail, the reporting lag, the impact of individual claims and the complexity of the claim process for a given product line.
Product lines are generally classifiable as either long tail or short tail, based on the average length of time between the event triggering claims under a policy and the final resolution of those claims. Short tail claims are reported and settled quickly, resulting in less estimation variability. The longer the time to final claim resolution, the greater the exposure to estimation risks and hence the greater the estimation uncertainty.
A major component of the claim tail is the reporting lag. The reporting lag, which is the time between the event triggering a claim and the reporting of the claim to the insurer, makes estimating IBNR inherently more uncertain. In addition, the greater the reporting lag, the greater the proportion of IBNR to the total claim liability for the product line. Writing new products with material reporting lags can result in adding several years’ worth of IBNR claim exposure before the reporting lag exposure becomes clearly observable, thereby increasing the risk associated with estimating the liabilities for claims and claim
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adjustment expenses for such products. The most extreme example of claim liabilities with long reporting lags are asbestos claims.
For some lines, the impact of large individual claims can be material to the analysis. These lines are generally referred to as being “low frequency/high severity,” while lines without this “large claim” sensitivity are referred to as “high frequency/low severity.” Estimates of claim liabilities for low frequency/high severity lines can be sensitive to the impact of a small number of potentially large claims. As a result, the role of judgment is much greater for these reserve estimates. In contrast, for high frequency/low severity lines the impact of individual claims is relatively minor and the range of reasonable reserve estimates is likely narrower and more stable.
Claim complexity can also greatly affect the estimation process by impacting the number of assumptions needed to produce the estimate, the potential stability of the underlying data and claim process, and the ability to gain an understanding of the data. Product lines with greater claim complexity, such as for certain surety and construction exposures, have inherently greater estimation uncertainty.
Actuaries have to exercise a considerable degree of judgment in the evaluation of all these factors in their analysis of reserves. The human element in the application of actuarial judgment is unavoidable when faced with material uncertainty. Different actuaries may choose different assumptions when faced with such uncertainty, based on their individual backgrounds, professional experiences and areas of focus. Hence, the estimates selected by the various actuaries may differ materially from each other.
Lastly, significant structural changes to the available data, product mix or organization can also materially impact the reserve estimation process. Events such as mergers increase the inherent uncertainty of reserve estimates for a period of time, until stable trends re-establish themselves within the new organization.
MD&A history
Prior-year 10-K MD&A spans are extracted from SEC filings with the same bounded parser used for the latest filing. The latest 10-K appears above; prior years are below.
FY 2024 10-K MD&A
SEC filing source: 0000086312-25-000012.
Item 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following is a discussion and analysis of the Company’s financial condition and results of operations for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, including year-to-year comparisons between 2024 and 2023. Year-to-year comparisons between 2023 and 2022 have been omitted from this Form 10-K, but may be found in “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Part II, Item 7 of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023.
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
2024 Consolidated Results of Operations
•Net income of $5.00 billion, or $21.76 per share basic and $21.47 per share diluted
•Net earned premiums of $41.94 billion
•Catastrophe losses of $3.34 billion ($2.63 billion after-tax)
•Net favorable prior year reserve development of $709 million ($559 million after-tax)
•Combined ratio of 92.5%
•Net investment income of $3.59 billion ($2.95 billion after-tax)
•Net realized investment losses of $30 million ($26 million after-tax)
•Operating cash flows of $9.07 billion
2024 Consolidated Financial Condition
•Total investments of $94.22 billion; fixed maturities and short-term securities comprised 94% of total investments
•Total assets of $133.19 billion
•Total debt of $8.03 billion, resulting in a debt-to-total capital ratio of 22.4% (20.3% excluding net unrealized investment losses, net of tax, included in shareholders’ equity)
•Total capital returned to shareholders of $2.11 billion, comprising $1.15 billion of share repurchases and $962 million of dividends
•Shareholders’ equity of $27.86 billion
•Net unrealized investment losses of $4.61 billion ($3.64 billion after-tax)
•Book value per common share of $122.97
•Holding company liquidity of $1.80 billion
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CONSOLIDATED OVERVIEW
Consolidated Results of Operations
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions except ratio and per share amounts) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Premiums | $ | 41,941 | $ | 37,761 | $ | 33,763 | |||||
| Net investment income | 3,590 | 2,922 | 2,562 | ||||||||
| Fee income | 473 | 433 | 412 | ||||||||
| Net realized investment losses | (30) | (105) | (204) | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 449 | 353 | 351 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 46,423 | 41,364 | 36,884 | ||||||||
| Claims and expenses | |||||||||||
| Claims and claim adjustment expenses | 27,059 | 26,215 | 22,854 | ||||||||
| Amortization of deferred acquisition costs | 6,973 | 6,226 | 5,515 | ||||||||
| General and administrative expenses | 5,819 | 5,176 | 4,810 | ||||||||
| Interest expense | 392 | 376 | 351 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 40,243 | 37,993 | 33,530 | ||||||||
| Income before income taxes | 6,180 | 3,371 | 3,354 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense | 1,181 | 380 | 512 | ||||||||
| Net income | $ | 4,999 | $ | 2,991 | $ | 2,842 | |||||
| Net income per share | |||||||||||
| Basic | $ | 21.76 | $ | 12.93 | $ | 11.91 | |||||
| Diluted | $ | 21.47 | $ | 12.79 | $ | 11.77 | |||||
| Combined ratio | |||||||||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 64.0 | % | 68.9 | % | 67.1 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 28.5 | 28.1 | 28.5 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 92.5 | % | 97.0 | % | 95.6 | % |
The following discussions of the Company’s net income and segment income (loss) are presented on an after-tax basis. Discussions of the components of net income and segment income (loss) are presented on a pre-tax basis, unless otherwise noted. Discussions of net income per common share are presented on a diluted basis.
Overview
Diluted net income per share of $21.47 in 2024 increased by 68% over diluted net income per share of $12.79 in 2023. Net income of $5.00 billion in 2024 increased by 67% over net income of $2.99 billion in 2023. The higher rate of increase in diluted net income per share reflected the impact of share repurchases in recent periods. The increase in income before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) higher underwriting margins excluding catastrophe losses and prior year reserve development (“underlying underwriting margins”), (ii) higher net investment income, (iii) higher net favorable prior year reserve development and (iv) lower net realized investment losses, partially offset by (v) higher catastrophe losses. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2024 and 2023 was $709 million and $143 million, respectively. Catastrophe losses in 2024 and 2023 were $3.34 billion and $2.99 billion, respectively. The higher underlying underwriting margins in 2024 were driven by Personal Insurance and Business Insurance, partially offset by Bond & Specialty Insurance. Income tax expense in 2024 was higher than in 2023, primarily reflecting the impact of the increase in income before income taxes, partially offset by a one-time tax benefit of $211 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to the expiration of the statute of limitations with respect to a tax item.
The Company has insurance operations in Canada, the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland and throughout other parts of the world as a corporate member of Lloyd’s, as well as in Brazil through a joint venture. Because these operations are conducted in local currencies other than the U.S. dollar, the Company is subject to changes in foreign currency exchange rates. For the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, changes in foreign currency exchange rates impacted reported line items in the statement of income by insignificant amounts. The impact of these changes was not material to the Company’s net income or segment income (loss) for the periods reported.
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Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2024 were $41.94 billion, $4.18 billion or 11% higher than in 2023. In Business Insurance, earned premiums in 2024 increased by 11% over 2023. In Bond & Specialty Insurance, earned premiums in 2024 increased by 8% over 2023. In Personal Insurance, earned premiums in 2024 increased by 11% over 2023. Factors contributing to the change in earned premiums in each segment in 2024 as compared with 2023 are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
Net Investment Income
The following table sets forth information regarding the Company’s investments.
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average investments(1) | $ | 97,012 | $ | 90,941 | $ | 87,191 | |||||
| Pre-tax net investment income | 3,590 | 2,922 | 2,562 | ||||||||
| After-tax net investment income | 2,952 | $ | 2,436 | 2,170 | |||||||
| Average pre-tax yield(2) | 3.7 | % | 3.2 | % | 2.9 | % | |||||
| Average after-tax yield(2) | 3.0 | % | 2.7 | % | 2.5 | % |
___________________________________________
(1)Excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses and reflects cash, receivables for investment sales, payables on investment purchases and accrued investment income.
(2)Excludes net realized and net unrealized investment gains and losses.
Net investment income in 2024 was $3.59 billion, $668 million or 23% higher than in 2023. Net investment income from fixed maturity investments in 2024 was $2.95 billion, $476 million higher than in 2023. The increase primarily resulted from higher long-term average yields and a higher average level of fixed maturity investments. Net investment income from short-term securities in 2024 was $280 million, $39 million higher than in 2023. The increase primarily resulted from a higher level of short-term investments and higher short-term average yields. The Company’s remaining investment portfolios had net investment income of $409 million in 2024, $156 million higher than in 2023, primarily reflecting higher private equity partnership returns. Included in other investments are private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships that are accounted for under the equity method of accounting and typically report their financial statement information to the Company one month to three months following the end of the reporting period. Accordingly, net investment income from these other investments is generally reflected in the Company’s financial statements on a quarter lag basis.
Fee Income
Fee income in 2024 was $473 million, $40 million higher than in 2023. The National Accounts market in Business Insurance is the primary source of the Company’s fee-based business and is discussed in the Business Insurance segment discussion that follows.
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Net Realized Investment Gains (Losses)
The following table sets forth information regarding the Company’s net pre-tax realized investment gains (losses).
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impairment gains (losses): | |||||||||||
| Fixed maturities | $ | (5) | $ | (3) | $ | (26) | |||||
| Real estate investments | (5) | (9) | (12) | ||||||||
| Net realized investment gains (losses) on equity securities still held | 89 | 16 | (61) | ||||||||
| Other net realized investment gains (losses), including from sales | (109) | (109) | (105) | ||||||||
| Total | $ | (30) | $ | (105) | $ | (204) |
Net realized investment gains on equity securities still held of $89 million in 2024 were driven by the impact of changes in fair value attributable to favorable equity markets. Net realized investment gains on equity securities still held of $16 million in 2023 were driven by the impact of changes in fair value attributable to favorable equity markets, partially offset by a net unfavorable change in fair value on an individual security held in the Company’s portfolio.
Other net realized investment losses in 2024 included $126 million of net realized investment losses related to fixed maturity investments and $10 million of net realized investment losses related to other investments, partially offset by $17 million of net realized investment gains related to real estate sales and $10 million of net realized investment gains related to equity securities sold. Other net realized investment losses in 2023 included $93 million of net realized investment losses related to fixed maturity investments, $7 million of net realized investment losses related to equity securities sold and $9 million of net realized investment losses related to other investments.
Other Revenues
Other revenues in 2024 were $449 million, $96 million higher than 2023. Other revenues include revenues from Simply Business, installment premium charges and other policyholder service charges.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2024 were $27.06 billion, $844 million or 3% higher than 2023, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) higher business volumes in all three segments, (ii) loss cost trends in Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty Insurance, (iii) higher catastrophe losses in all three segments and (iv) higher other losses in Business Insurance, partially offset by (v) lower physical damage losses in the automobile product line and lower non-weather and non-catastrophe weather-related losses in the homeowners and other product line in Personal Insurance, (vi) higher net favorable prior year reserve development, including net favorable prior year development compared to net unfavorable development in 2023 in Business Insurance and higher net favorable prior year reserve development in Personal Insurance, partially offset by lower net favorable prior year reserve development in Bond & Specialty Insurance and (vii) the comparison to an elevated level of losses in 2023 from both a small number of surety accounts and loss activity related to the disruption in the banking sector in Bond & Specialty Insurance. Catastrophes in 2024 primarily resulted from Hurricane Helene and numerous severe wind and hail storms in multiple states. Catastrophes in 2023 primarily resulted from numerous severe wind and hail storms in multiple states.
Factors contributing to net prior year reserve development are discussed in more detail in note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Significant Catastrophe Losses
The Company defines a catastrophe as a severe loss event designated, or reasonably expected by the Company to be designated, a catastrophe by one or more industry recognized organizations that track and report on insured losses resulting from catastrophic events, such as Property Claim Services (PCS) for events in the United States and Canada.
Catastrophes can be caused by various natural events, including, among others, hurricanes, tornadoes and other windstorms, earthquakes, hail, wildfires, severe winter weather, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and other naturally-occurring events, such as solar flares. Catastrophes can also be man-made, such as terrorist attacks and other destructive acts, including those involving nuclear, biological, chemical and radiological events, cyber events, explosions and destruction of infrastructure. The effects of catastrophes are included in net income (loss) and core income (loss) and claims and claim adjustment expense
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reserves upon occurrence. A catastrophe may also result in the payment of reinsurance reinstatement premiums and assessments from various pools and associations.
The Company’s threshold for disclosing catastrophes is primarily determined at the reportable segment level. If a threshold for one segment or a combination thereof is reached and the other segments have losses from the same event, losses from the event are identified as catastrophe losses in the segment results and for the consolidated results of the Company. Additionally, an aggregate threshold is applied for International business across all reportable segments. The threshold for 2024 ranged from approximately $20 million to $30 million of losses before reinsurance and taxes.
The following table presents the amount of losses recorded by the Company for significant catastrophes that occurred in 2024, 2023 and 2022, the amount of net unfavorable (favorable) prior year reserve development recognized in 2024 and 2023 for catastrophes that occurred in 2023 and 2022, and the estimate of ultimate losses for those catastrophes at December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022. For purposes of the table, a significant catastrophe is an event for which the Company estimates its ultimate losses will be $100 million or more after reinsurance and before taxes.
| Losses Incurred / Unfavorable (Favorable) Prior Year Reserve Development for the Year Ended December 31, | Estimated Ultimate Losses at December 31, | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in millions, pre-tax and net of reinsurance)(1) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |||||||||||
| 2022 | |||||||||||||||||
| PCS Serial Number: | |||||||||||||||||
| 33 — Severe wind and hail storms | (4) | 1 | 137 | 134 | 138 | 137 | |||||||||||
| 35 — Severe wind and hail storms | (3) | — | 184 | 181 | 184 | 184 | |||||||||||
| 43 — Severe wind and hail storms | 1 | (6) | 122 | 117 | 116 | 122 | |||||||||||
| 61 — Hurricane Ian | (1) | (76) | 227 | 150 | 151 | 227 | |||||||||||
| 73 — Winter storm | 11 | 158 | 512 | 681 | 670 | 512 | |||||||||||
| 2023 | |||||||||||||||||
| PCS Serial Number: | |||||||||||||||||
| 25 — Severe wind and hail storms | (6) | 153 | n/a | 147 | 153 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 32 — Severe wind and hail storms | (5) | 140 | n/a | 135 | 140 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 33 — Severe wind and hail storms | (10) | 199 | n/a | 189 | 199 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 35 — Severe wind and hail storms | — | 140 | n/a | 140 | 140 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 38 — Severe wind and hail storms | 3 | 110 | n/a | 113 | 110 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 42 — Severe wind and hail storms | 4 | 133 | n/a | 137 | 133 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 48 — Severe wind and hail storms | (6) | 150 | n/a | 144 | 150 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 49 — Severe wind and hail storms | 2 | 133 | n/a | 135 | 133 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 51 — Severe wind and hail storms | (34) | 265 | n/a | 231 | 265 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 63 — Severe wind and hail storms | 5 | 125 | n/a | 130 | 125 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 75 — Severe wind and hail storms | (17) | 190 | n/a | 173 | 190 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 2024 | |||||||||||||||||
| PCS Serial Number: | |||||||||||||||||
| 26 — Severe wind and hail storms | 261 | n/a | n/a | 261 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 39 — Severe wind and hail storms | 250 | n/a | n/a | 250 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 42 — Severe wind and hail storms | 161 | n/a | n/a | 161 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 44 — Severe wind and hail storms | 171 | n/a | n/a | 171 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 45 — Severe wind and hail storms | 159 | n/a | n/a | 159 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 46 — Severe wind and hail storms | 182 | n/a | n/a | 182 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 61 — Severe wind and hail storms | 144 | n/a | n/a | 144 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 77 — Hurricane Helene | 733 | n/a | n/a | 733 | n/a | n/a |
___________________________________________
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n/a: not applicable.
(1) Amounts are reported pre-tax and net of recoveries under all applicable reinsurance treaties, except for the Company’s 2022 Underlying Property Aggregate Catastrophe Excess-of-Loss Treaties. That treaty covered the accumulation of certain property losses arising from one or multiple occurrences (both catastrophe and non-catastrophe events) for the period January 1, 2022 through and including December 31, 2022. As a result, the benefit from that treaty is not included in the table above as the allocation of the treaty’s benefit to each identified catastrophe changes each time there are additional events or changes in estimated losses from any covered event.
Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2024 was $6.97 billion, $747 million or 12% higher than in 2023. The increase in 2024 was generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums. Amortization of deferred acquisition costs is discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2024 were $5.82 billion, $643 million or 12% higher than in 2023, primarily reflecting the impact of costs associated with higher business volumes. General and administrative expenses are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
Interest Expense
Interest expense in 2024 and 2023 was $392 million and $376 million, respectively.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2024 was $1.18 billion, $801 million or 211% higher than in 2023, primarily reflecting the impact of the $2.81 billion increase in income before income taxes in 2024 and the one-time tax benefit of $211 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to the expiration of the statute of limitations with respect to a tax item.
The Company’s effective tax rate was 19% and 11% in 2024 and 2023, respectively. The effective tax rate in 2023 was reduced by the impact of the one-time tax benefit discussed above. The effective tax rates in both years reflected the impact of tax-exempt investment income on the calculation of the Company’s income tax provision.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 92.5% in 2024 was 4.5 points lower than the combined ratio of 97.0% in 2023. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 64.0% in 2024 was 4.9 points lower than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 68.9% in 2023. The underwriting expense ratio of 28.5% in 2024 was 0.4 points higher than the underwriting expense ratio of 28.1% in 2023.
Catastrophe losses in 2024 and 2023 accounted for 8.0 points and 7.9 points, respectively, of the combined ratio. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2024 and 2023 provided 1.7 points and 0.4 points of benefit, respectively, to the combined ratio. The combined ratio excluding prior year reserve development and catastrophe losses (“underlying combined ratio”) in 2024 was 3.3 points lower than the 2023 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) the benefit of earned pricing in Personal Insurance and Business Insurance, partially offset by Bond & Specialty Insurance, (ii) lower physical damage losses in the automobile product line and lower non-weather and non-catastrophe weather-related losses in the homeowners and other product line in Personal Insurance and (iii) the comparison to an elevated level of losses in 2023 from both a small number of surety accounts and loss activity related to the disruption in the banking sector in Bond & Specialty Insurance, partially offset by (iv) higher other losses in Business Insurance.
The combined ratio continues to be impacted by the tort environment, including more aggressive attorney involvement in insurance claims.
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Written Premiums
Consolidated gross and net written premiums were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |||||||
| Business Insurance | $ | 24,515 | $ | 22,569 | $ | 19,521 | ||||
| Bond & Specialty Insurance | 4,519 | 4,187 | 4,082 | |||||||
| Personal Insurance | 17,516 | 16,216 | 14,273 | |||||||
| Total | $ | 46,550 | $ | 42,972 | $ | 37,876 |
| Net Written Premiums | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |||||||
| Business Insurance | $ | 22,078 | $ | 20,430 | $ | 17,635 | ||||
| Bond & Specialty Insurance | 4,109 | 3,842 | 3,732 | |||||||
| Personal Insurance | 17,169 | 15,929 | 14,047 | |||||||
| Total | $ | 43,356 | $ | 40,201 | $ | 35,414 |
Gross and net written premiums in 2024 both increased by 8% over 2023. Factors contributing to the changes in gross and net written premiums in each segment are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS BY SEGMENT
Business Insurance
Results of Business Insurance were as follows:
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 21,345 | $ | 19,144 | $ | 17,095 | |||||
| Net investment income | 2,560 | 2,085 | 1,864 | ||||||||
| Fee income | 430 | 400 | 382 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 322 | 232 | 248 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 24,657 | 21,861 | 19,589 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 20,570 | 18,910 | 16,522 | ||||||||
| Segment income before income taxes | 4,087 | 2,951 | 3,067 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense | 781 | 368 | 536 | ||||||||
| Segment income | $ | 3,306 | $ | 2,583 | $ | 2,531 | |||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 63.1 | % | 65.3 | % | 62.8 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 29.4 | 29.4 | 29.7 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 92.5 | % | 94.7 | % | 92.5 | % |
Overview
Segment income in 2024 was $3.31 billion, $723 million or 28% higher than segment income of $2.58 billion in 2023. The increase in segment income before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) higher net investment income, (ii) higher underlying underwriting margins and (iii) net favorable prior year reserve development compared to net unfavorable prior year reserve development in 2023, partially offset by (iv) higher catastrophe losses. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2024 was $90 million. Net unfavorable prior year reserve development in 2023 was $289 million. Catastrophe losses in 2024 and 2023 were $1.03 billion and $838 million, respectively. The higher underlying underwriting margins primarily reflected the impacts of (i) higher business volumes and (ii) the benefit of earned pricing, partially offset by (iii) higher other losses and (iv) higher general and administrative expenses. Income tax expense in 2024 was higher than in 2023,
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primarily reflecting the impact of the increase in segment income before income taxes and a one-time tax benefit of $171 million in the first quarter of 2023.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2024 were $21.35 billion, $2.20 billion or 11% higher than in 2023, primarily reflecting the increase in net written premiums over the preceding twelve months.
Net Investment Income
Net investment income in 2024 was $2.56 billion, $475 million or 23% higher than in 2023. Refer to the “Net Investment Income” section of the “Consolidated Results of Operations” discussion for a description of the factors contributing to the increase in the Company’s consolidated net investment income in 2024 compared with 2023. In addition, refer to note 2 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for a discussion of the Company’s net investment income allocation methodology.
Fee Income
National Accounts is the primary source of fee income due to revenue from its large deductible policies and service businesses, which include risk management, claims administration, loss control and risk management information services provided to third parties, as well as policy issuance and claims management services to workers’ compensation residual market pools. Fee income in 2024 was $430 million, $30 million or 8% higher than in 2023, primarily reflecting higher claim volume under administration associated with large deductible policies and the service business.
Other Revenues
Other revenues in 2024 were $322 million, $90 million or 39% higher than in 2023, driven by growth in Simply Business. Other revenues also include installment premium charges and other policyholder service charges.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2024 were $13.68 billion, $983 million or 8% higher than in 2023, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) higher business volumes, (ii) loss cost trends, (iii) higher other losses and (iv) higher catastrophe losses, partially offset by (v) net favorable prior year reserve development compared to net unfavorable prior year reserve development in 2023.
Factors contributing to net prior year reserve development are discussed in more detail in note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2024 was $3.59 billion, $415 million or 13% higher than in 2023, generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2024 were $3.30 billion, $262 million or 9% higher than in 2023. The increase in 2024 was primarily in support of business growth.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2024 was $781 million, $413 million or 112% higher than in 2023, primarily reflecting the impact of the $1.14 billion increase in segment income before income taxes in 2024 and the one-time tax benefit of $171 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to the expiration of the statute of limitations with respect to a tax item.
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Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 92.5% in 2024 was 2.2 points lower than the combined ratio of 94.7% in 2023. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 63.1% in 2024 was 2.2 points lower than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 65.3% in 2023. The underwriting expense ratio of 29.4% in 2024 was comparable with the underwriting expense ratio in 2023.
Catastrophe losses in 2024 and 2023 accounted for 4.8 points and 4.3 points, respectively, of the combined ratio. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2024 provided 0.4 points of benefit to the combined ratio. Net unfavorable prior year reserve development in 2023 accounted for 1.5 points of the combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio in 2024 was 0.8 points lower than the 2023 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impact of the benefit of earned pricing, partially offset by higher other losses.
Written Premiums
Business Insurance’s gross and net written premiums by market were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Select Accounts | $ | 3,768 | $ | 3,502 | $ | 3,126 | |||||
| Middle Market | 12,971 | 11,800 | 10,532 | ||||||||
| National Accounts | 1,786 | 1,665 | 1,642 | ||||||||
| National Property and Other | 3,828 | 3,630 | 2,942 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 22,353 | 20,597 | 18,242 | ||||||||
| International | 2,162 | 1,972 | 1,279 | ||||||||
| Total Business Insurance | $ | 24,515 | $ | 22,569 | $ | 19,521 |
| Net Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Select Accounts | $ | 3,727 | $ | 3,477 | $ | 3,099 | |||||
| Middle Market | 12,023 | 11,045 | 9,923 | ||||||||
| National Accounts | 1,259 | 1,135 | 1,085 | ||||||||
| National Property and Other | 3,134 | 3,008 | 2,467 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 20,143 | 18,665 | 16,574 | ||||||||
| International | 1,935 | 1,765 | 1,061 | ||||||||
| Total Business Insurance | $ | 22,078 | $ | 20,430 | $ | 17,635 |
Gross and net written premiums in 2024 increased by 9% and 8%, respectively, over 2023.
Select Accounts. Net written premiums of $3.73 billion in 2024 increased by 7% over 2023. Retention rates remained strong in 2024 but decreased from 2023. Renewal premium changes in 2024 remained positive and were higher than in 2023. New business premiums in 2024 increased over 2023.
Middle Market. Net written premiums of $12.02 billion in 2024 increased by 9% over 2023. Retention rates remained strong in 2024 but decreased slightly from 2023. Renewal premium changes in 2024 remained positive and were higher than in 2023. New business premiums in 2024 were comparable with 2023.
National Accounts. Net written premiums of $1.26 billion in 2024 increased by 11% over 2023. Retention rates remained strong in 2024 and were comparable with 2023. Renewal premium changes in 2024 remained positive and were comparable with 2023. New business premiums in 2024 increased over 2023.
National Property and Other. Net written premiums of $3.13 billion in 2024 increased by 4% over 2023. Retention rates remained strong in 2024 but decreased from 2023. Renewal premium changes in 2024 remained positive but were lower than in 2023. New business premiums in 2024 increased over 2023.
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International. Net written premiums of $1.94 billion in 2024 increased by 10% over 2023.
Bond & Specialty Insurance
Results of Bond & Specialty Insurance were as follows:
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 3,958 | $ | 3,655 | $ | 3,418 | |||||
| Net investment income | 390 | 328 | 258 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 30 | 25 | 20 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 4,378 | 4,008 | 3,696 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 3,362 | 2,839 | 2,593 | ||||||||
| Segment income before income taxes | 1,016 | 1,169 | 1,103 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense | 201 | 227 | 195 | ||||||||
| Segment income | $ | 815 | $ | 942 | $ | 908 | |||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 44.4 | % | 40.1 | % | 39.9 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 39.9 | 36.8 | 35.4 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 84.3 | % | 76.9 | % | 75.3 | % |
Overview
Segment income in 2024 was $815 million, $127 million or 13% lower than segment income of $942 million in 2023. The decrease in segment income before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) lower net favorable prior year reserve development and (ii) lower underlying underwriting margins, partially offset by (iii) higher net investment income. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2024 and 2023 was $129 million and $285 million, respectively. Catastrophe losses in 2024 and 2023 were $51 million and $37 million, respectively. The lower underlying underwriting margins primarily reflected (i) higher general and administrative expenses and (ii) the impact of earned pricing, partially offset by (iii) higher business volumes and (iv) the comparison to an elevated level of losses in 2023 from both a small number of surety accounts and loss activity related to the disruption in the banking sector. Income tax expense in 2024 was lower than in 2023, primarily reflecting the impact of the decrease in segment income before income taxes, partially offset by a one-time tax benefit of $9 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to the expiration of the statute of limitations with respect to a tax item.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2024 were $3.96 billion, $303 million or 8% higher than in 2023, primarily reflecting an increase in net written premiums, including the impact of longer duration surety bonds and multi-year management liability policies.
Net Investment Income
Net investment income in 2024 was $390 million, $62 million or 19% higher than in 2023. Included in Bond & Specialty Insurance are certain legal entities whose invested assets and related net investment income are reported exclusively in this segment and not allocated among all business segments. Refer to the “Net Investment Income” section of the “Consolidated Results of Operations” discussion for a description of the factors contributing to the increase in the Company’s consolidated net investment income in 2024 as compared with 2023. In addition, refer to note 2 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for a discussion of the Company’s net investment income allocation methodology.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2024 were $1.77 billion, $289 million or 19% higher than in 2023, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) lower net favorable prior year reserve development, (ii) higher business volumes, (iii) loss cost
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trends and (iv) higher catastrophe losses, partially offset by (v) the comparison to an elevated level of losses in 2023 from both a small number of surety accounts and loss activity related to the disruption in the banking sector.
Factors contributing to net prior year reserve development are discussed in more detail in note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2024 was $756 million, $83 million or 12% higher than in 2023, generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2024 were $832 million, $151 million or 22% higher than in 2023. The increase primarily reflected the acquisition of Corvus in the first quarter of 2024, as well as higher employee and technology related expenses.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2024 was $201 million, $26 million or 11% lower than in 2023, primarily reflecting the impact of the $153 million decrease in segment income before income taxes in 2024, partially offset by the one-time tax benefit of $9 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to the expiration of the statute of limitations with respect to a tax item.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 84.3% in 2024 was 7.4 points higher than the combined ratio of 76.9% in 2023. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 44.4% in 2024 was 4.3 points higher than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 40.1% in 2023. The underwriting expense ratio of 39.9% in 2024 was 3.1 points higher than the underwriting expense ratio of 36.8% in 2023.
Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2024 and 2023 provided 3.3 points and 7.8 points of benefit, respectively, to the combined ratio. Catastrophe losses in 2024 and 2023 accounted for 1.3 points and 1.0 points, respectively, of the combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio in 2024 was 2.6 points higher than the 2023 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting (i) a higher expense ratio and (ii) the impact of earned pricing, partially offset by (iii) the comparison to an elevated level of losses in 2023 from both small number of surety accounts and loss activity related to the disruption in the banking sector.
Written Premiums
Bond & Specialty Insurance’s gross and net written premiums were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Management Liability | $ | 2,599 | $ | 2,391 | $ | 2,361 | |||||
| Surety | 1,387 | 1,219 | 1,153 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 3,986 | 3,610 | 3,514 | ||||||||
| International | 533 | 577 | 568 | ||||||||
| Total Bond & Specialty Insurance | $ | 4,519 | $ | 4,187 | $ | 4,082 |
| Net Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Management Liability | $ | 2,309 | $ | 2,156 | $ | 2,112 | |||||
| Surety | 1,294 | 1,147 | 1,081 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 3,603 | 3,303 | 3,193 | ||||||||
| International | 506 | 539 | 539 | ||||||||
| Total Bond & Specialty Insurance | $ | 4,109 | $ | 3,842 | $ | 3,732 |
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Gross written premiums and net written premiums in 2024 increased by 8% and 7%, respectively, over 2023.
Domestic. Net written premiums of $3.60 billion in 2024 increased by 9% over 2023. Excluding the surety line of business, for which the following are not relevant measures, retention rates remained strong in 2024 and were comparable with 2023. Renewal premium changes in 2024 remained positive but were lower than in 2023. New business premiums in 2024 increased over 2023, driven by Corvus.
International. Net written premiums of $506 million in 2024 decreased by 6% from 2023, driven by decreases in the United Kingdom and broader Europe, partially offset by increases in Canada.
Personal Insurance
Results of Personal Insurance were as follows:
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 16,638 | $ | 14,962 | $ | 13,250 | |||||
| Net investment income | 640 | 509 | 440 | ||||||||
| Fee income | 43 | 33 | 30 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 97 | 96 | 83 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 17,418 | 15,600 | 13,803 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 15,875 | 15,831 | 14,033 | ||||||||
| Segment income (loss) before income taxes | 1,543 | (231) | (230) | ||||||||
| Income tax expense (benefit) | 294 | (103) | (90) | ||||||||
| Segment income (loss) | $ | 1,249 | $ | (128) | $ | (140) | |||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 69.7 | % | 80.4 | % | 79.8 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 24.7 | 24.4 | 25.1 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 94.4 | % | 104.8 | % | 104.9 | % |
Overview
Segment income in 2024 was $1.25 billion, compared with a segment loss of $128 million in 2023. The increase in segment income before income taxes was driven by the pre-tax impacts of (i) higher underlying underwriting margins, (ii) higher net favorable prior year reserve development and (iii) higher net investment income, partially offset by (iv) higher catastrophe losses. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2024 and 2023 was $490 million and $147 million, respectively. Catastrophe losses in 2024 and 2023 were $2.25 billion and $2.12 billion, respectively. The higher underlying underwriting margins primarily reflected the impacts of (i) the benefit of earned pricing, (ii) lower physical damage losses in the automobile product line, (iii) lower non-weather and non-catastrophe weather-related losses in the homeowners and other product line and (iv) higher business volumes. The segment recorded income tax expense in 2024 compared to an income tax benefit in 2023. The change in income taxes primarily reflected the impact of the increase in segment income before income taxes and a one-time tax benefit of $31 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to the expiration of the statute of limitations with respect to a tax item.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2024 were $16.64 billion, $1.68 billion or 11% higher than in 2023, primarily reflecting the increase in net written premiums over the preceding twelve months.
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Net Investment Income
Net investment income in 2024 was $640 million, $131 million or 26% higher than in 2023. Refer to the “Net Investment Income” section of the “Consolidated Results of Operations” discussion for a description of the factors contributing to the increase in the Company’s consolidated net investment income in 2024 as compared with 2023. In addition, refer to note 2 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for a discussion of the Company’s net investment income allocation methodology.
Other Revenues
Other revenues in all years presented primarily consisted of installment premium charges.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2024 were $11.61 billion, $428 million or 4% lower than in 2023, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) higher net favorable prior year reserve development, (ii) lower physical damage losses in the automobile product line and (iii) lower non-weather and non-catastrophe weather-related losses in the homeowners and other product line, partially offset by (iv) higher business volumes and (v) higher catastrophe losses.
Factors contributing to net prior year reserve development are discussed in more detail in note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2024 was $2.63 billion, $249 million or 10% higher than in 2023, generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2024 were $1.64 billion, $223 million or 16% higher than in 2023. The increase primarily reflected higher contingent commissions, as well as higher employee and technology related expenses.
Income Tax Expense (Benefit)
Income tax expense in 2024 was $294 million, compared with an income tax benefit of $103 million in 2023, primarily reflecting the impact of the $1.77 billion increase in segment income before income taxes and the one-time tax benefit of $31 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to the expiration of the statute of limitations with respect to a tax item.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 94.4% in 2024 was 10.4 points lower than the combined ratio of 104.8% in 2023. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 69.7% in 2024 was 10.7 points lower than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 80.4% in 2023. The underwriting expense ratio of 24.7% in 2024 was 0.3 points higher than the underwriting expense ratio of 24.4% in 2023.
Catastrophe losses accounted for 13.5 points and 14.1 points of the combined ratio in 2024 and 2023, respectively. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2024 and 2023 provided 3.0 points and 1.0 points of benefit, respectively, to the combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio in 2024 was 7.8 points lower than the 2023 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) the benefit of earned pricing, (ii) lower physical damage losses in the automobile product line and (iii) lower non-weather and non-catastrophe weather-related losses in the homeowners and other product line.
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Written Premiums
Personal Insurance’s gross and net written premiums were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Automobile | $ | 7,949 | $ | 7,352 | $ | 6,507 | |||||
| Homeowners and Other | 8,845 | 8,190 | 7,099 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 16,794 | 15,542 | 13,606 | ||||||||
| International | 722 | 674 | 667 | ||||||||
| Total Personal Insurance | $ | 17,516 | $ | 16,216 | $ | 14,273 |
| Net Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Automobile | $ | 7,925 | $ | 7,330 | $ | 6,482 | |||||
| Homeowners and Other | 8,550 | 7,949 | 6,916 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 16,475 | 15,279 | 13,398 | ||||||||
| International | 694 | 650 | 649 | ||||||||
| Total Personal Insurance | $ | 17,169 | $ | 15,929 | $ | 14,047 |
Gross and net written premiums in 2024 both increased by 8% over 2023.
Domestic
Automobile net written premiums of $7.93 billion in 2024 increased by 8% over 2023. Retention rates remained strong in 2024 and were comparable with 2023. Renewal premium changes in 2024 remained positive but were lower than in 2023. New business premiums in 2024 decreased from 2023.
Homeowners and Other net written premiums of $8.55 billion in 2024 increased by 8% over 2023. Retention rates remained strong in 2024 and were comparable with 2023. Renewal premium changes in 2024 remained positive but were lower than in 2023. New business premiums in 2024 decreased from 2023.
For its Domestic business, Personal Insurance had approximately 8.8 million and 9.1 million active policies at December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively.
International
International net written premiums of $694 million in 2024 increased by 7% over 2023, driven by increases in the automobile and homeowners and other product lines, partially offset by the impact of changes in foreign currency exchange rates.
For its International business, Personal Insurance had approximately 425,000 and 450,000 active policies at December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively.
Interest Expense and Other
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income (loss) | $ | (345) | $ | (325) | $ | (301) |
The income (loss) for Interest Expense and Other in 2024 and 2023 was $(345) million and $(325) million, respectively. Pre-tax interest expense in 2024 and 2023 was $392 million and $376 million, respectively. After-tax interest expense in 2024 and 2023 was $310 million and $297 million, respectively.
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ASBESTOS CLAIMS AND LITIGATION
The Company believes that the property and casualty insurance industry has suffered from court decisions and other trends that have expanded insurance coverage for asbestos claims far beyond the original intent of insurers and policyholders. The Company has received and continues to receive a significant number of asbestos claims. Factors underlying these claim filings include continued intensive advertising by lawyers seeking asbestos claimants and the focus by plaintiffs on defendants, such as manufacturers of talcum powder, who were not traditionally sued and/or primary targets of asbestos litigation. Many defendants have also been subject to increased settlement demands, in part due to the bankruptcy of many traditional primary targets of asbestos litigation. Currently, in many jurisdictions, those who allege very serious injury and who can present credible medical evidence of their injuries are receiving priority trial settings in the courts, while those who have not shown any credible disease manifestation are having their hearing dates delayed or placed on an inactive docket. Prioritizing claims involving credible evidence of injuries, along with the focus on defendants who were not traditionally primary targets of asbestos litigation, contributes to the claims and claim adjustment expense payment patterns experienced by the Company. The Company’s asbestos-related claims and claim adjustment expense experience also has been impacted by the unavailability of other insurance sources potentially available to policyholders, whether through exhaustion of policy limits or through the insolvency of other participating insurers.
The Company continues to be involved in disputes, including litigation, with a number of policyholders, some of whom are in bankruptcy, over coverage for asbestos-related claims. Many coverage disputes with policyholders are only resolved through settlement agreements. Because many policyholders make exaggerated demands, it is difficult to predict the outcome of settlement negotiations. Settlements involving bankrupt policyholders may include extensive releases which are favorable to the Company, but which could result in settlements for larger amounts than originally anticipated. Although the Company has seen a reduction in the overall risk associated with these disputes, it remains difficult to predict the ultimate cost of these claims. As in the past, the Company will continue to pursue settlement opportunities.
In addition to claims against policyholders, proceedings have been launched directly against insurers, including the Company, by individuals challenging insurers’ conduct with respect to the handling of past asbestos claims and by individuals seeking damages arising from alleged asbestos-related bodily injuries. While the number of direct actions has decreased significantly over time, it is possible that additional direct actions against insurers, including the Company, could be filed in the future. It is difficult to predict the outcome of these proceedings, including whether the plaintiffs would be able to sustain these actions against insurers based on novel legal theories of liability. The Company believes it has meritorious defenses to any such claims and has received favorable rulings in certain jurisdictions.
The Company’s net asbestos reserves at December 31, 2024 and 2023 were $1.34 billion and $1.38 billion, respectively, and include case reserves, IBNR reserves and reserves for the costs of defending asbestos-related coverage litigation. IBNR reserves include amounts for new claims and adverse development on existing policyholders, as well as reserves for claims from policyholders reporting asbestos claims for the first time and for policyholders for which there is, or may be, litigation. Asbestos reserves also include amounts related to certain policyholders with whom the Company has entered into permanent settlement agreements, which are based on the expected payout for each policyholder under the applicable agreement. Additionally, a portion of the asbestos reserves relates to assumed reinsurance contracts, primarily consisting of reinsurance of excess coverage, including various pool participations.
Because each policyholder presents different liability and coverage issues, the Company generally conducts an in-depth asbestos claim review on an annual basis, including a review of domestic policyholders with open claims and litigation cases for potential product and “non-product” liability. Policyholders are identified for this review based upon, among other factors: a combination of past payments and current case reserves in excess of a specified threshold (currently $100,000), perceived level of exposure, number of reported claims, products/completed operations and potential “non-product” exposures, size of policyholder and geographic distribution of products or services sold by the policyholder.
Among the factors the Company may consider in the course of this review are: available insurance coverage, including the role of any umbrella or excess insurance the Company has issued to the policyholder; limits and deductibles; an analysis of the policyholder’s potential liability, including as a result of the bankruptcy of other defendants; the jurisdictions involved, including any trends, judicial rulings or legislative actions in those jurisdictions; past and anticipated future claim activity and loss development on pending claims; past settlement values of similar claims; allocated claim adjustment expense; the potential role of other insurance; the role, if any, of non-asbestos claims or potential non-asbestos claims in any resolution process; and applicable coverage defenses or determinations, if any, including the determination as to whether or not an asbestos claim is a products/completed operation claim subject to an aggregate limit and the available coverage, if any, for that claim.
The Company also reviews its asbestos reserves quarterly. These reviews include, as appropriate, an analysis of exposure and claim payment patterns by policyholder, as well as recent settlements, policyholder bankruptcies, judicial rulings and legislative
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actions. The Company also analyzes developing payment patterns among policyholders and the assumed reinsurance component of reserves, as well as projected reinsurance billings and recoveries. In addition, the Company reviews its historical gross and net loss and expense paid experience, year-by-year, to assess any emerging trends, fluctuations, or characteristics suggested by the aggregate paid activity. Conventional actuarial methods are not utilized to establish asbestos reserves, and the Company’s evaluations have not resulted in a reliable method to determine a meaningful average asbestos defense or indemnity payment.
During the third quarter of 2024, the Company completed its annual in-depth asbestos claim review. While the latest available government data continue to reflect a declining trend in deaths caused by mesothelioma, the number of policyholders with open asbestos claims was relatively flat compared to 2023. Net asbestos paid loss and loss adjustment expenses in 2024, 2023 and 2022 were $282 million, $212 million and $245 million, respectively. Payments on behalf of these policyholders continue to be influenced by the factors described above, including an increase in severity for certain policyholders and a high level of litigation activity in a limited number of jurisdictions where individuals alleging serious asbestos-related injury, primarily mesothelioma, continue to target defendants who were not traditionally sued and/or primary targets of asbestos litigation. The completion of the analyses described above and the annual review in the third quarters of 2024, 2023 and 2022 resulted in $242 million, $284 million and $212 million increases, respectively, to the Company’s net asbestos reserves. In each year, the reserve increases were primarily driven by increases in the Company’s estimate of projected settlement and defense costs related to a broad number of policyholders. The increase in the estimate of projected settlement and defense costs primarily resulted from payment trends that continue to be higher than previously anticipated due to the continued high level of mesothelioma claim filings and the impact of the current litigation environment surrounding those claims discussed above. The 2023 charge also included an additional increase to strengthen the Company’s carried reserve position relative to the range of reasonable estimates.
Over the past decade, the property and casualty insurance industry, including the Company, has experienced net unfavorable prior year reserve development with regard to asbestos reserves, but the Company believes that over that period there has been a reduction in the volatility associated with the Company’s overall asbestos exposure as the overall asbestos environment has evolved from one dominated by exposure to significant litigation risks, particularly coverage disputes relating to policyholders in bankruptcy who were asserting that their claims were not subject to the aggregate limits contained in their policies, to an environment primarily driven by a frequency of litigation related to individuals with mesothelioma. The Company’s overall view of the current underlying asbestos environment is essentially unchanged from recent periods, and there remains a high degree of uncertainty with respect to future exposure to asbestos claims.
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The following table displays activity for asbestos losses and loss adjustment expenses and reserves:
| (at and for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beginning reserves: | |||||||||||
| Gross | $ | 1,768 | $ | 1,674 | $ | 1,687 | |||||
| Ceded | (390) | (369) | (346) | ||||||||
| Net | 1,378 | 1,305 | 1,341 | ||||||||
| Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 279 | 374 | 287 | ||||||||
| Ceded | (37) | (90) | (75) | ||||||||
| Net | 242 | 284 | 212 | ||||||||
| Paid loss and loss adjustment expenses: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 339 | 281 | 298 | ||||||||
| Ceded | (57) | (69) | (53) | ||||||||
| Net | 282 | 212 | 245 | ||||||||
| Foreign exchange and other: | |||||||||||
| Gross | — | 1 | (2) | ||||||||
| Ceded | — | — | (1) | ||||||||
| Net | — | 1 | (3) | ||||||||
| Ending reserves: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 1,708 | 1,768 | 1,674 | ||||||||
| Ceded | (370) | (390) | (369) | ||||||||
| Net | $ | 1,338 | $ | 1,378 | $ | 1,305 |
ENVIRONMENTAL CLAIMS AND LITIGATION
The Company has received and continues to receive claims from policyholders who allege that they are liable for injury or damage arising out of the alleged storage, emissions or disposal of toxic substances, frequently under policies issued prior to the mid-1980s. These claims are mainly brought pursuant to various state or federal statutes that require a liable party to undertake or pay for environmental remediation. For example, the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) enables private parties as well as federal and state governments to take action with respect to releases and threatened releases of hazardous substances. This federal statute permits the recovery of response costs from some liable parties and may require liable parties to undertake their own remedial action. Liability under these statutes may be joint and several with other responsible parties. The Company has also been, and continues to be, involved in litigation involving insurance coverage issues pertaining to environmental claims. The Company believes that some court decisions pertaining to environmental claims have interpreted the insurance coverage to be broader than the original intent of the insurers and policyholders. For more information regarding environmental claims and litigation, see note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
In 2024, 2023 and 2022, the Company increased its net environmental reserves by $78 million, $93 million and $132 million, respectively. Net environmental paid loss and loss adjustment expenses in 2024, 2023 and 2022 were $80 million, $82 million and $82 million, respectively. Net environmental reserves were $380 million, $382 million and $371 million at December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADEQUACY OF ASBESTOS AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESERVES
As a result of the processes and procedures discussed above, management believes that the reserves carried for asbestos and environmental claims are appropriately established based upon known facts, current law and management’s judgment. However, the uncertainties surrounding the final resolution of these claims continue, and it is difficult to determine the ultimate exposure for asbestos and environmental claims and related litigation. As a result, these reserves are subject to revision as new information becomes available and as claims develop. The continuing uncertainties include, without limitation:
•the risks and lack of predictability inherent in complex litigation;
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•a further increase in the cost to resolve, and/or the number of, asbestos and environmental claims beyond that which is anticipated;
•the emergence of a greater number of asbestos claims than anticipated as a result of extended life expectancies resulting from medical advances and lifestyle improvements;
•the continued application of more stringent cleanup standards on existing and emerging contaminants;
•the role of any umbrella or excess policies we have issued;
•the resolution or adjudication of disputes concerning coverage for asbestos and environmental claims in a manner inconsistent with our previous assessment of these disputes;
•the number and outcome of direct actions against us;
•future developments pertaining to our ability to recover reinsurance for asbestos and environmental claims;
•any impact on asbestos or environmental defendants we insure due to the bankruptcy of other asbestos or environmental defendants;
•the unavailability of other insurance sources potentially available to policyholders, whether through exhaustion of policy limits or through the insolvency of other participating insurers; and
•uncertainties arising from the insolvency or bankruptcy of policyholders.
Changes in the legal, regulatory and legislative environment may impact the future resolution of asbestos and environmental claims and result in adverse loss reserve development. The emergence of a greater number of asbestos or environmental claims beyond that which is anticipated may result in adverse loss reserve development. Changes in applicable legislation and future court and regulatory decisions and interpretations, including the outcome of legal challenges to legislative and/or judicial reforms establishing medical criteria for the pursuit of asbestos claims, could affect the settlement of asbestos and environmental claims. It is also difficult to predict the ultimate outcome of complex coverage disputes until settlement negotiations near completion and significant legal questions are resolved or, failing settlement, until the dispute is adjudicated. This is particularly the case with policyholders in bankruptcy where negotiations often involve a large number of claimants and other parties and require court approval to be effective. As part of its continuing analysis of asbestos and environmental reserves, the Company continues to study the implications of these and other developments.
Because of the uncertainties set forth above, additional liabilities may arise for amounts in excess of the Company’s current reserves. In addition, the Company’s estimate of claims and claim adjustment expenses may change. These additional liabilities or increases in estimates, or a range of either, cannot now be reasonably estimated and could result in income statement charges that could be material to the Company’s operating results in future periods.
INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
The Company’s invested assets at December 31, 2024 were $94.22 billion, of which 94% was invested in fixed maturity and short-term investments, 1% in equity securities, 1% in real estate investments and 4% in other investments. Because the primary purpose of the investment portfolio is to fund future claims payments, the Company employs a thoughtful investment philosophy that focuses on appropriate risk-adjusted returns. A significant majority of funds available for investment are deployed in a widely diversified portfolio of high quality, liquid, taxable U.S. government, tax-exempt and taxable U.S. municipal and taxable corporate and U.S. agency mortgage-backed bonds.
The carrying value of the Company’s fixed maturity portfolio at December 31, 2024 was $83.67 billion. The Company closely monitors the duration of its fixed maturity investments, and investment purchases and sales are executed with the objective of having adequate funds available to satisfy the Company’s insurance and debt obligations. The weighted average credit quality of the Company’s fixed maturity portfolio, both including and excluding U.S. Treasury securities, was “Aa2” at both December 31, 2024 and 2023. Below investment grade securities represented 1.2% and 1.3% of the total fixed maturity investment portfolio at December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively. The weighted average effective duration of fixed maturities and short-term securities was 4.3 (4.5 excluding short-term securities) at December 31, 2024 and 4.1 (4.4 excluding short-term securities) at December 31, 2023.
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The carrying values of investments in fixed maturities classified as available for sale at December 31, 2024 and 2023 were as follows:
| 2024 | 2023 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (at December 31, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | ||||||||
| U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government and government agencies and authorities | $ | 5,570 | Aaa/Aa1 | $ | 6,368 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||
| Obligations of U.S. states, municipalities and political subdivisions: | ||||||||||||
| Local general obligation | 17,023 | Aaa/Aa1 | 17,199 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Revenue | 8,580 | Aaa/Aa1 | 9,184 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| State general obligation | 1,010 | Aaa/Aa1 | 1,157 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Pre-refunded | 572 | Aaa/Aa1 | 966 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Total obligations of U.S. states, municipalities and political subdivisions | 27,185 | 28,506 | ||||||||||
| Debt securities issued by foreign governments | 909 | Aaa/Aa1 | 1,006 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Mortgage-backed securities, collateralized mortgage obligations and pass-through securities | 12,605 | Aaa/Aa1 | 7,818 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Corporate and all other bonds: | ||||||||||||
| Financial: | ||||||||||||
| Bank | 4,425 | A1 | 4,658 | A1 | ||||||||
| Insurance | 2,404 | Aa2 | 2,084 | Aa2 | ||||||||
| Finance/leasing | 41 | Ba3 | 63 | Ba2 | ||||||||
| Brokerage and asset management | 165 | A2 | 139 | A1 | ||||||||
| Total financial | 7,035 | 6,944 | ||||||||||
| Industrial | 21,940 | A3 | 19,037 | A3 | ||||||||
| Public utility | 4,522 | A2 | 4,338 | A2 | ||||||||
| Canadian municipal securities | 1,641 | Aa1 | 1,604 | Aa1 | ||||||||
| Sovereign corporate securities (2) | 635 | Aaa | 584 | Aaa | ||||||||
| Commercial mortgage-backed securities and project loans (3) | 1,152 | Aaa | 1,038 | Aaa | ||||||||
| Asset-backed and other | 472 | Aa2 | 564 | Aa1 | ||||||||
| Total corporate and all other bonds | 37,397 | 34,109 | ||||||||||
| Total fixed maturities | $ | 83,666 | Aa2 | $ | 77,807 | Aa2 |
___________________________________________
(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist.
(2)Sovereign corporate securities include corporate securities that are backed by a government and include sovereign banks and securities issued under the Federal Ship Financing Programs.
(3)Included in commercial mortgage-backed securities and project loans at December 31, 2024 and 2023 were $327 million and $116 million of securities guaranteed by the U.S. government, respectively.
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The following table sets forth the Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio rated using external ratings agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist:
| (at December 31, 2024, in millions) | Carrying Value | Percent of Total Carrying Value | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quality Rating: | |||||||
| Aaa | $ | 40,411 | 48.3 | % | |||
| Aa | 15,278 | 18.3 | |||||
| A | 16,181 | 19.3 | |||||
| Baa | 10,816 | 12.9 | |||||
| Total investment grade | 82,686 | 98.8 | |||||
| Below investment grade | 980 | 1.2 | |||||
| Total fixed maturities | $ | 83,666 | 100.0 | % |
Obligations of U.S. States, Municipalities and Political Subdivisions
The Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio at December 31, 2024 and 2023 included $27.19 billion and $28.51 billion, respectively, of securities which are obligations of U.S. states, municipalities and political subdivisions (collectively referred to as the municipal bond portfolio). The municipal bond portfolio is diversified across the United States, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico and includes general obligation and revenue bonds issued by states, cities, counties, school districts and similar issuers. Included in the municipal bond portfolio at December 31, 2024 and 2023 were $572 million and $966 million, respectively, of pre-refunded bonds, which are bonds for which U.S. states or municipalities have established irrevocable trusts, almost exclusively comprised of U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government and government agencies and authorities. These trusts were created to fund the payment of principal and interest due under the bonds. The irrevocable trusts are verified as to their sufficiency by an independent verification agent of the underwriter, issuer or trustee. All of the Company’s holdings of securities issued by Puerto Rico and related entities have either been pre-refunded and therefore are defeased by U.S. Treasury securities or have FHA guarantees subject to federal appropriation.
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The following table shows the geographic distribution of the $26.61 billion of municipal bonds at December 31, 2024 that were not pre-refunded:
| (at December 31, 2024, in millions) | State General Obligation | Local General Obligation | Revenue | Total Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality(1) | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State: | ||||||||||||||||||
| Texas | $ | 83 | $ | 3,285 | $ | 1,075 | $ | 4,443 | Aaa | |||||||||
| California | — | 1,992 | 321 | 2,313 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Virginia | 40 | 903 | 813 | 1,756 | Aaa | |||||||||||||
| North Carolina | 167 | 652 | 420 | 1,239 | Aaa | |||||||||||||
| Wisconsin | 170 | 852 | 69 | 1,091 | Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Minnesota | 104 | 815 | 148 | 1,067 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Washington | 88 | 752 | 186 | 1,026 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Colorado | — | 598 | 325 | 923 | Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Tennessee | — | 837 | 51 | 888 | Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Maryland | — | 748 | 113 | 861 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Georgia | 152 | 597 | 66 | 815 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Massachusetts | — | 216 | 505 | 721 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Florida | 38 | 182 | 486 | 706 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| All others (2) | 168 | 4,594 | 4,002 | 8,764 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 1,010 | $ | 17,023 | $ | 8,580 | $ | 26,613 | Aaa/Aa1 |
___________________________________________
(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist. Ratings shown are the higher of the rating of the underlying issuer or the insurer in the case of securities enhanced by third-party insurance for the payment of principal and interest in the event of issuer default.
(2)No other single state accounted for 2.5% or more of the total non-pre-refunded municipal bonds.
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The following table displays the funding sources for the $8.58 billion of municipal bonds identified as revenue bonds in the foregoing table at December 31, 2024:
| (at December 31, 2024, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality(1) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source: | ||||||
| Water | $ | 2,606 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||
| Higher education | 2,095 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Sewer | 872 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Power utilities | 480 | Aa1 | ||||
| Special tax | 407 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Transit | 225 | Aa1 | ||||
| Fuel sales | 196 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Health care | 173 | Aa2 | ||||
| Housing | 164 | Aaa | ||||
| Highway tolls | 150 | Aa2 | ||||
| Lease | 28 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Port, airport and marina | 8 | Aa2 | ||||
| Industrial | 8 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Natural gas | 6 | Aa2 | ||||
| Lottery | 3 | Aa1 | ||||
| Other revenue sources | 1,159 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Total | $ | 8,580 | Aaa/Aa1 |
___________________________________________
(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist. Ratings shown are the higher of the rating of the underlying issuer or the insurer in the case of securities enhanced by third-party insurance for the payment of principal and interest in the event of issuer default.
The Company bases its investment decision on the underlying credit characteristics of the municipal security. The weighted average credit rating of the municipal bond portfolio was “Aaa/Aa1” at December 31, 2024.
Debt Securities Issued by Foreign Governments
The following table shows the geographic distribution of the Company’s long-term fixed maturity investments in debt securities issued by foreign governments at December 31, 2024:
| (at December 31, 2024, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign Government: | ||||||
| Canada | $ | 793 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||
| United Kingdom | 96 | Aa3 | ||||
| All others (2,3) | 20 | Aa2 | ||||
| Total | $ | 909 | Aaa/Aa1 |
___________________________________________
(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist.
(2)The Company does not have direct exposure to sovereign debt issued by the Republic of Ireland, Italy, Greece, Portugal or Spain.
(3) No other country accounted for 2.5% or more of total debt securities issued by foreign governments.
The following table shows the Company’s Eurozone exposure at December 31, 2024 to all debt securities issued by foreign governments, financial companies, sovereign corporations (including sovereign banks) whose securities are backed by the
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respective country’s government and all other corporate securities (comprised of industrial corporations and utility companies) which could be affected if economic conditions deteriorated due to a prolonged recession:
| Corporate Securities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt Securities Issued by Foreign Governments | Financial | Sovereign Corporates | All Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| (at December 31, 2024, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Eurozone Periphery | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Spain | $ | — | — | $ | 58 | Aa3 | $ | — | — | $ | 3 | Baa3 | ||||||||||||||
| Ireland | — | — | — | — | — | — | 176 | Baa2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Italy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Greece | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Portugal | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Subtotal | — | 58 | — | 179 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Eurozone Non-Periphery | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Germany | 12 | Aaa | — | — | 624 | Aaa/Aa1 | 653 | A2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| France | — | — | — | — | — | — | 356 | A2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Netherlands | — | — | 140 | A1 | 81 | Aaa | 257 | A2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Finland | — | — | 86 | Aa3 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Belgium | — | — | — | — | 19 | Aa1 | 120 | A3 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Austria | — | — | — | — | 64 | Aa2 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Subtotal | 12 | 226 | 788 | 1,386 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 12 | $ | 284 | $ | 788 | $ | 1,565 |
___________________________________________
(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist. The table includes $631 million of short-term securities which have the highest ratings issued by external rating agencies for short-term issuances. For purposes of this table, the short-term securities, which are rated “A-1+” and/or “P-1,” are included as “Aaa” rated securities.
In addition to fixed maturities noted in the foregoing table, the Company has exposure totaling $279 million to private equity limited partnerships and real estate partnerships (both of which are included in other investments in the Company’s consolidated balance sheet) whose primary investing focus is across Europe. The Company has unfunded commitments totaling $168 million to these partnerships.
Mortgage-Backed Securities, Collateralized Mortgage Obligations and Pass-Through Securities
The Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio at December 31, 2024 and 2023 included $12.61 billion and $7.82 billion, respectively, of residential mortgage-backed securities, including pass-through-securities and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), all of which are subject to prepayment risk (either shortening or lengthening of duration). While prepayment risk for securities and its effect on income cannot be fully controlled, particularly when interest rates move dramatically, the Company’s investment strategy generally favors securities that reduce this risk within expected interest rate ranges. The Company makes investments in residential CMOs that are either guaranteed by GNMA, FNMA or FHLMC, or if not guaranteed, are senior or super-senior positions within their respective securitizations. Both guaranteed and non-guaranteed residential CMOs allocate the distribution of payments from the underlying mortgages among different classes of bondholders. In addition, non-guaranteed residential CMOs provide structures that allocate the impact of credit losses to different classes of bondholders. Senior and super-senior CMOs are protected, to varying degrees, from credit losses as those losses are initially allocated to subordinated bondholders. The Company’s investment strategy is to purchase CMO tranches that are expected to offer the most favorable return given the Company’s assessment of associated risks. The Company does not purchase residual interests in CMOs. For more information regarding the Company’s investments in residential mortgage-backed securities, see note 3 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
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Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities and Project Loans
At December 31, 2024 and 2023, the Company held commercial mortgage-backed securities (including FHA project loans) of $1.15 billion and $1.04 billion, respectively. For more information regarding the Company’s investments in commercial mortgage-backed securities, see note 3 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Equity Securities, Real Estate and Short-Term Investments
See note 1 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for further information about these invested asset classes.
Other Investments
The Company also invests in private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships, and joint ventures. These asset classes have historically provided a higher return than investments in fixed maturities but are subject to more volatility. The Company also enters into certain derivative financial instruments from time to time that are reported as part of other investments. At December 31, 2024 and 2023, the carrying value of the Company’s other investments was $4.20 billion and $4.30 billion, respectively. The Company has unfunded commitments to private equity limited partnerships, real estate partnerships and others in which it invests. These commitments totaled $1.49 billion and $2.05 billion at December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively. It is the opinion of the Company’s management that the Company has adequate liquidity to meet these commitments.
Securities Lending
The Company has, from time to time, engaged in securities lending activities from which it generates net investment income by lending certain of its investments to other institutions for short periods of time. At December 31, 2024 and 2023, the Company had $586 million and $421 million, respectively, of securities on loan, respectively, as part of a tri-party lending agreement. The average monthly balance of securities on loan during 2024 and 2023 was $555 million and $400 million, respectively. Borrowers of these securities provide collateral equal to at least 102% of the market value of the loaned securities plus accrued interest. The Company did not incur any investment losses in its securities lending program for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023.
Lloyd’s Trust Deposits
The Company meets its capital requirements to support its underwriting at Lloyd’s using a combination of the share capital and retained earnings of the Company’s subsidiaries participating in Lloyd’s, trust deposits and uncollateralized letters of credit. Securities with a fair value of approximately $13 million and $31 million held by a wholly-owned subsidiary at December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively, and $86 million and $85 million held by TRV at December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively, were pledged into Lloyd’s trust accounts to provide a portion of the Lloyd’s capital requirements. For more information regarding the Company’s utilization of uncollateralized letters of credit, see “Liquidity and Capital Resources” herein.
Net Unrealized Investment Gains (Losses)
The net unrealized investment losses that were included in shareholders’ equity were as follows:
| (at December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed maturities | $ | (4,609) | $ | (3,969) | $ | (6,217) | |||||
| Other | — | (1) | (3) | ||||||||
| Unrealized investment losses before tax | (4,609) | (3,970) | (6,220) | ||||||||
| Tax benefit | (969) | (841) | (1,322) | ||||||||
| Net unrealized investment losses included in shareholders’ equity at end of year | $ | (3,640) | $ | (3,129) | $ | (4,898) |
Net unrealized investment losses included in shareholders’ equity were $3.64 billion at December 31, 2024 compared with $3.13 billion at December 31, 2023. At December 31, 2024, the Company had $1.12 billion fixed maturity investments reported at fair value for which fair value was less than 80% of amortized cost. At December 31, 2023, the Company had $726 million fixed maturity investments reported at fair value for which fair value was less than 80% of amortized cost. These year-over-year changes were driven by changes in interest rates. Since the Company generally holds its high-quality fixed maturity investments to maturity, these net unrealized losses are considered temporary in nature and are not expected to result in significant realized losses. In addition, given the temporary nature of net unrealized losses combined with the Company’s strong operating cash flows, which include income received on investments and the proceeds received upon maturity of the
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investments, the net unrealized investment loss is not expected to meaningfully impact the Company’s assessment of capital adequacy or liquidity. Equity securities, which include common and non-redeemable preferred stocks, are reported at fair value with changes in fair value recognized in net income.
For fixed maturity investments where fair value is less than the carrying value and the Company did not reach a decision to impair, the Company continues to have the intent and ability to hold such investments to a projected recovery in value, which may not be until maturity.
At December 31, 2024 and 2023, below investment grade securities comprised 1.2% and 1.3%, respectively, of the fair value of the Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio. Included in below investment grade securities at December 31, 2024 were securities in an unrealized loss position that, in the aggregate, had an amortized cost of $661 million and a fair value of $622 million, resulting in a net pre-tax unrealized investment loss of $39 million. These securities in an unrealized loss position represented less than 1% of both the amortized cost and fair value of the fixed maturity portfolio at December 31, 2024 and accounted for less than 1% of the total gross pre-tax unrealized investment loss in the fixed maturity portfolio at December 31, 2024.
Impairment Charges
Impairment charges included in net realized investment losses in the consolidated statement of income were $10 million, $12 million and $38 million for the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022, respectively. See note 3 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for further information.
Purchases and Sales of Investment Securities
Purchases and sales of investments are based on cash requirements, the characteristics of the insurance liabilities and current market conditions. The Company identifies investments to be sold to achieve its primary investment goals of assuring the Company’s ability to meet policyholder obligations as well as to optimize investment returns, given these obligations.
During the year ended December 31, 2024, the Company incurred pre-tax realized losses of $62 million on the sale of fixed maturity investments having a fair value of $1.27 billion.
CATASTROPHE MODELING
The Company uses various analyses and methods, including proprietary and third-party modeling processes, to make underwriting and reinsurance decisions designed to manage its exposure to catastrophic events. There are no industry-standard methodologies or assumptions for projecting catastrophe exposure. Accordingly, catastrophe estimates provided by different insurers may not be comparable.
The Company actively monitors and evaluates changes in third-party models and, when necessary, calibrates the catastrophe risk model estimates delivered via its own proprietary modeling processes. The Company considers historical loss experience, recent events, underwriting practices, market share analyses, external scientific analysis and various other factors, including non-modeled losses, to refine its proprietary view of catastrophe risk. These proprietary models are updated regularly as new information and techniques emerge.
Based on the proprietary and third-party models utilized by the Company, the tables below set forth, as of December 31, 2024, the probabilities that estimated losses, comprising claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses (but excluding unallocated claim adjustment expenses), from a single event occurring in a one-year timeframe will equal or exceed the indicated loss amounts (expressed in dollars, net of tax, and as a percentage of the Company’s common equity). For example, on the basis described below the tables, the Company estimates that there is a one percent chance that the Company’s loss from a single U.S. and Canadian hurricane in a one-year timeframe would equal or exceed $2.4 billion, or 8% of the Company’s common equity at December 31, 2024.
| Dollars (in billions) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likelihood of Exceedance (1) | Single U.S. and Canadian Hurricane | Single U.S. and Canadian Earthquake | |||||
| 2.0% (1-in-50) | $ | 2.0 | $ | 0.7 | |||
| 1.0% (1-in-100) | $ | 2.4 | $ | 1.2 | |||
| 0.4% (1-in-250) | $ | 3.7 | $ | 2.0 | |||
| 0.1% (1-in-1,000) | $ | 9.0 | $ | 3.2 |
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| Percentage of Common Equity (2) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likelihood of Exceedance | Single U.S. and Canadian Hurricane | Single U.S. and Canadian Earthquake | ||||
| 2.0% (1-in-50) | 6 | % | 2 | % | ||
| 1.0% (1-in-100) | 8 | % | 4 | % | ||
| 0.4% (1-in-250) | 12 | % | 6 | % | ||
| 0.1% (1-in-1,000) | 29 | % | 10 | % |
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(1) An event that has, for example, a 2% likelihood of exceedance is sometimes described as a “1-in-50 year event.” As noted above, however, the probabilities in the table represent the likelihood of losses from a single event equaling or exceeding the indicated threshold loss amount in a one-year timeframe, not over a multi-year timeframe. Also, because the probabilities relate to a single event, the probabilities do not address the likelihood of more than one event occurring in a particular period, and, therefore, the amounts do not address potential aggregate catastrophe losses occurring in a one-year timeframe.
(2) The percentage of common equity is calculated by dividing (a) indicated loss amounts in dollars by (b) total common equity excluding net unrealized investment gains and losses, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity. Net unrealized investment gains and losses can be significantly impacted by both discretionary and other economic factors and are not necessarily indicative of operating trends. Accordingly, the Company’s management uses the percentage of common equity calculated on this basis as a metric to evaluate the potential impact of a single hurricane or single earthquake on the Company’s financial position for purposes of making underwriting and reinsurance decisions.
The loss amounts included in the tables above are based on the Company’s in-force portfolio of direct exposures and do not include assumed business. Additionally, the amounts are as of December 31, 2024, reflect the reinsurance program in place at January 1, 2025, are net of reinsurance, after-tax, and exclude unallocated claim adjustment expenses, which historically have been less than 10% of loss estimates. For further information regarding the Company’s reinsurance, see “Item 1—Business—Reinsurance.” The amounts for hurricanes reflect U.S. and Canadian exposures and include property exposures, property residual market exposures and an adjustment for certain non-property exposures. The hurricane loss amounts are based on the Company’s catastrophe risk model estimates and include losses from the hurricane hazards of wind and storm surge. The amounts for earthquakes reflect U.S. and Canadian property and workers’ compensation exposures. These loss amounts include the effects of exposure growth, inflation and modeling updates based on recent trends and scientific analysis. The Company does not believe that the inclusion of hurricane or earthquake losses arising from other geographical areas or other exposures would materially change the estimated loss amounts.
Catastrophe modeling relies upon inputs based on experience, science, engineering and history. These inputs reflect a significant amount of judgment and are subject to changes which may result in volatility in the modeled output. Catastrophe modeling output may also fail to account for risks that are outside the range of normal probability or are otherwise unforeseeable. Catastrophe modeling assumptions include, among others, the portion of purchased reinsurance that is collectible after a catastrophic event, which may prove to be materially incorrect. Consequently, catastrophe modeling estimates are subject to significant uncertainty. In the tables above, the uncertainty associated with the estimated threshold loss amounts increases significantly as the likelihood of exceedance decreases. In other words, in the case of a relatively more remote event (e.g., 1-in-1,000), the estimated threshold loss amount is relatively less reliable. Actual losses from an event could materially exceed the indicated threshold loss amount. In addition, more than one such event could occur in any period.
Moreover, the Company is exposed to the risk of material losses from other than property and workers’ compensation coverages arising out of hurricanes and earthquakes, and it is exposed to catastrophe losses from perils other than hurricanes and earthquakes, such as tornadoes and other windstorms, hail, wildfires, severe winter weather, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, solar flares and other naturally-occurring events, as well as acts of terrorism and cyber events.
In addition, compared to models for hurricanes, models for earthquakes are less reliable due to there being a more limited number of significant historical events to analyze, while models for tornadoes, hail storms, wildfires and winter storms are newer and may be less reliable due to the highly random geographic nature and size of these events. Accordingly, these models may be less accurate in predicting risks and estimating losses. Further, changes in climate conditions could cause our underlying modeling data to be less predictive, thus limiting our ability to effectively evaluate and manage catastrophe risk. As compared to natural catastrophes, modeling for man-made catastrophes, such as terrorism and cyber events, is even more difficult and less reliable, and for some events (both natural and man-made), models are either in early stages of development and, therefore, not widely adopted, or are not available.
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For more information about the Company’s exposure to catastrophe losses, see “Item 1A—Risk Factors—High levels of catastrophe losses, including as a result of factors such as increased concentrations of insured exposures in catastrophe-prone areas and changing climate conditions, could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, our financial position and/or liquidity, and could adversely impact our ratings, our ability to raise capital and the availability and cost of reinsurance” and “Item 1A—Risk Factors—We may be adversely affected if our pricing and capital models provide materially different indications than actual results.”
CHANGING CLIMATE CONDITIONS
Severe weather events over the last two decades underscore the unpredictability of climate trends. For example, the frequency and/or severity of hurricane, tornado, hail and wildfire events in the United States have been more volatile during this time period. The insurance industry has experienced increased catastrophe losses due to a number of potential causal factors, including, in addition to weather/climate variability, aging infrastructure, more people living in, and moving to, high-risk areas, population growth in areas with weaker enforcement of building codes, urban expansion, an increase in the number of amenities included in, and average size of, a home and increased inflation, including as a result of post-event demand surge. We believe that changing climate conditions have also likely added to the frequency and severity of natural disasters and created additional uncertainty as to future trends and exposures. Climate studies by government agencies, academic institutions, catastrophe modeling organizations and other groups indicate that an increase in frequency and/or intensity of hurricanes, hail and severe convective storms, heavy precipitation events and associated river, urban and flash flooding, sea level rise, droughts, heat waves and wildfires has occurred, and can be expected into the future. Understanding the potential impacts of changing climate conditions is important to the Company’s business. Changing climate conditions are expected to evolve over decades. Importantly, because most of its policies renew annually, the Company is able to respond to these changes over time through adjustments to its underwriting strategy, product pricing and related policy terms and conditions, as appropriate. As an example, in recent years the Company has focused on enhancing the strategic management of its catastrophe exposure, adding experts in data science, meteorology, including climate and flood science, wind and structural engineering and geophysics, among others, to its catastrophe management organization. The Company has also established dedicated teams for each catastrophe peril, with the goal of developing industry-leading scientific and underwriting expertise. This expertise has been incorporated into the Company’s product development, risk selection, pricing, capital allocation and claim response.
The Company discusses how changing climate conditions may present other issues for its business under “Item 1A—Risk Factors.” and “Outlook.” For example, among other things:
•Increasingly unpredictable and severe weather conditions could result in increased frequency and severity of claims under policies issued by the Company. See “Item 1A—Risk Factors—High levels of catastrophe losses, including as a result of factors such as increased concentrations of insured exposures in catastrophe-prone areas and changing climate conditions, could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, our financial position and/or liquidity, and could adversely impact our ratings, our ability to raise capital and the availability and cost of reinsurance” and “—Outlook—Underwriting Gain/Loss.” Moreover, the Company’s catastrophe models may be less reliable due to the increased unpredictability in frequency and severity of severe weather events, emerging trends in climate conditions and regulatory responses to catastrophe events not being appropriately reflected in the models, in addition to the other factors mentioned above. Accordingly, the Company may be subject to increased losses from catastrophes and other weather-related events.
•Changing climate conditions could also impact the creditworthiness of issuers of securities in which the Company invests. For example, water supply adequacy could impact the creditworthiness of bond issuers with significant assets or business activities in the Southwestern United States; more frequent and/or severe hurricanes could impact the creditworthiness of issuers with significant assets or business activities in the Southeastern United States, among other areas; and increased regulation adopted in response to potential changes in climate conditions could impact the creditworthiness of issuers affected by such regulations. In addition, as issuers of securities in which the Company invests become increasingly focused on mitigating the potential environmental impact of their operations, the costs associated with such initiatives could affect the business models and realized returns of such issuers. See “Item 1A—Risk Factors—Our investment portfolio is subject to credit and interest rate risk, and may suffer reduced or low returns or material realized or unrealized losses.”
•Increased regulation adopted in response to potential changes in climate conditions may impact the Company and its customers, including state insurance regulations that could impact the Company’s ability to manage property exposures in areas vulnerable to significant climate driven losses. For example, state laws have been passed that restrict a carrier’s ability to cancel or non-renew certain policies within or adjacent to declared state of emergency zip codes and mandate discounts for risk mitigation practices that may not be effective. If the Company is unable to
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implement risk-based pricing, modify policy terms or reduce exposures to the extent necessary to address rising losses related to catastrophes and smaller scale weather events (should those increased losses occur), its business may be adversely affected. See “Item 1—Business—Regulation—U.S. State and Federal Regulation—Regulatory and Legislative Responses to Catastrophes.” In addition, climate change regulation could increase the Company’s customers’ costs of doing business. For example, insureds faced with carbon management regulatory requirements may have less available capital for investment in loss prevention and safety features which may, over time, increase loss exposures. Increased regulation may also result in reduced economic activity, which would decrease the amount of insurable assets and businesses, and increased claim costs, to the extent such regulations require that damaged homes or businesses be rebuilt according to more expensive specifications.
•The full range of potential liability exposures related to changing climate conditions continues to evolve. For example, from time to time third parties sue our policyholders alleging that they caused or contributed to losses associated with changing climate conditions. In the event any such policyholders were found to be responsible, it could result in them seeking recovery under policies issued by the Company. Through the Company’s Enterprise Casualty Emerging Risk Committee and its Committee on Climate, Energy and the Environment, the Company works with its business units and corporate groups, as appropriate, to identify and try to assess climate change-related liability issues, which are continually evolving and often hard to fully evaluate. The Company regularly reviews emerging issues, including changing climate conditions, to consider potential changes to its modeling and the use of such modeling, as well as to help determine the need for new underwriting strategies, coverage modifications or new products. See “Item 1A—Risk Factors—The effects of emerging claim and coverage issues on our business are uncertain, and court decisions or legislative changes that take place after we issue our policies can result in an unexpected increase in the number of claims and have a material adverse impact on our results of operations and/or our financial position.”
REINSURANCE RECOVERABLES
The Company reinsures a portion of the risks it underwrites in order to control its exposure to losses. For additional discussion regarding the Company’s reinsurance coverage, see “Part I—Item 1—Business—Reinsurance.”
The following table summarizes the composition of the Company’s reinsurance recoverables:
| (at December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross reinsurance recoverables on paid and unpaid claims and claim adjustment expenses | $ | 3,962 | $ | 3,895 | |||
| Gross structured settlements | 2,626 | 2,707 | |||||
| Mandatory pools and associations | 1,531 | 1,659 | |||||
| Gross reinsurance recoverables | 8,119 | 8,261 | |||||
| Allowance for estimated uncollectible reinsurance | (119) | (118) | |||||
| Net reinsurance recoverables | $ | 8,000 | $ | 8,143 |
The following table presents the Company’s top five reinsurer groups by reinsurance recoverable at December 31, 2024 (in millions). Also included is the A.M. Best rating of the Company’s predominant reinsurer from each such reinsurer group at February 13, 2025:
| Reinsurer Group | Reinsurance Recoverable | A.M. Best Rating of Group’s Predominant Reinsurer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Re Group | $ | 685 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | ||||
| Berkshire Hathaway | 458 | A++ | highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Munich Re Group | 332 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Axa Group | 173 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Fairfax Financial Group | 137 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings |
At December 31, 2024, the Company held $922 million of collateral in the form of letters of credit, funds and trust agreements held to fully or partially collateralize certain reinsurance recoverables.
Included in net reinsurance recoverables are amounts related to structured settlements, which are annuities purchased from various life insurance companies to settle certain personal physical injury claims, of which workers’ compensation claims comprise a significant portion. In cases where the Company did not receive a release from the claimant, the amount due from the life insurance company related to the structured settlement is included in the Company’s consolidated balance sheet as a reinsurance recoverable and the related claim cost is included in the liability for claims and claim adjustment expense reserves,
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as the Company retains the contingent liability to the claimant. If it is expected that the life insurance company is not able to pay, the Company would recognize an impairment of the related reinsurance recoverable if, and to the extent, the purchased annuities are not covered by state guaranty associations. In the event that the life insurance company fails to make the required annuity payments, the Company would be required to make such payments. The following table presents the Company’s top five groups by structured settlements at December 31, 2024 (in millions). Also included is the A.M. Best rating of the Company’s predominant insurer from each such insurer group at February 13, 2025:
| Group | Structured Settlements | A.M. Best Rating of Group’s Predominant Insurer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity & Guaranty Life Group | $ | 663 | A | third highest of 16 ratings | ||||
| Genworth Financial Group | 320 | B- | eighth highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| John Hancock Group | 218 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Symetra Financial Corporation | 200 | A | third highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Brighthouse Financial, Inc. | 175 | A | third highest of 16 ratings |
The Company considers the ratings and related outlook assigned to reinsurance companies and life insurance companies by various independent ratings agencies in assessing the adequacy of its allowance for uncollectible amounts.
OUTLOOK
The following discussion provides outlook information for certain key drivers of the Company’s results of operations and capital position.
Premiums. The Company’s earned premiums are a function of net written premium volume. Net written premiums comprise both renewal business and new business and are recognized as earned premium over the term of the underlying policies. When business renews, the amount of net written premiums associated with that business may increase or decrease (renewal premium change) as a result of increases or decreases in rate and/or insured exposures, which the Company considers as a measure of units of exposure (such as the number and value of vehicles or properties insured). Net written premiums from both renewal and new business, and therefore earned premiums, are impacted by competitive market conditions as well as general economic conditions, which, particularly in the case of Business Insurance, affect audit premium adjustments, policy endorsements and mid-term cancellations. Net written premiums may also be impacted by the structure of reinsurance programs and related costs, as well as changes in foreign currency exchange rates.
Overall, the Company expects that retention levels (the amount of expiring premium that renews, before the impact of renewal premium changes) will remain strong by historical standards during 2025.
Property and casualty insurance market conditions are expected to remain competitive during 2025 for new business. In each of the Company’s business segments, new business generally has less of an impact on underwriting profitability than renewal business, given the volume of new business relative to renewal business. However, in periods of meaningful increases in new business, despite its positive impact on underwriting gains over time, the impact of higher new business levels may negatively impact the combined ratio for a period of time. In periods of meaningful decreases in new business, despite its negative impact on underwriting gains over time, the impact of lower new business levels may positively impact the combined ratio for a period of time.
Effective January 1, 2025, the Company renewed a quota share reinsurance agreement with subsidiaries of Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limited (Fidelis) for 2025 pursuant to which the Company assumes 20% of the subject gross written premiums of Fidelis on a risk-attaching basis, subject to a loss ratio cap. The Company’s portion of premiums from Fidelis is reported as part of the International results of Business Insurance. The Company also has a minority investment in Fidelis.
Underwriting Gain/Loss. The Company’s underwriting gain/loss can be significantly impacted by catastrophe losses and net favorable or unfavorable prior year reserve development, as well as underlying underwriting margins. Underlying underwriting margins can be impacted by a number of factors, including variability in non-catastrophe weather, large loss and other loss activity; changes in current period loss estimates resulting from prior period loss development; changes in loss cost trends; changes in business mix; changes in reinsurance coverages and/or costs; premium adjustments; and variability in expenses and assessments.
Catastrophe losses and non-catastrophe weather-related losses are inherently unpredictable from period to period. The Company’s results of operations could be adversely impacted if significant catastrophe and non-catastrophe weather-related losses were to occur.
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On average for the ten-year period ended December 31, 2024, the Company experienced approximately 38% of its annual catastrophe losses during the second quarter, primarily arising out of severe wind and hail storms, including tornadoes. Hurricanes, wildfires and winter storms tend to happen at other times of the year and can also have a material impact on the Company’s results of operations. Catastrophe losses incurred in a particular quarter in any given year may differ materially from historical experience. In addition, most of the Company’s reinsurance programs renew on January 1 or July 1 of each year, and, therefore, any changes to the availability, cost or coverage terms of such programs will be effective after such dates.
Beginning in early January 2025, there were a series of severe wildfires that impacted the Pacific Palisades neighborhood and Eaton Canyon area in Southern California. The Company’s preliminary pre-tax estimate of catastrophe losses from these wildfires, including assessments from the California FAIR Plan, and net of estimated recoveries from reinsurance, is $1.7 billion. The catastrophe losses from these wildfires will be reflected in the Company’s first quarter 2025 earnings.
Over much of the past decade, the Company’s results have included significant amounts of net favorable prior year reserve development driven by better than expected loss experience. However, given the inherent uncertainty in estimating claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, loss experience could develop such that the Company recognizes in future periods higher or lower levels of favorable prior year reserve development, no favorable prior year reserve development or unfavorable prior year reserve development. In addition, the ongoing review of prior year claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, or other changes in current period circumstances, may result in the Company revising current year loss estimates upward or downward in future periods of the current year.
It is possible that changes in economic conditions, the supply chain, international trade, the labor market and geopolitical tensions, as well as steps taken by federal, state and/or local governments and the Federal Reserve could lead to higher or lower inflation than the Company anticipated, which could in turn lead to an increase or decrease in the Company’s loss costs and the need to strengthen or reduce claims and claim adjustment expense reserves. These impacts of inflation on loss costs and claims and claim adjustment expense reserves could be more pronounced for those lines of business that require a relatively longer period of time to finalize and settle claims for a given accident year and, accordingly, are relatively more inflation sensitive. For a further discussion, see “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors—If actual claims exceed our claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, or if changes in the estimated level of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves are necessary, including as a result of, among other things, changes in the legal/tort, regulatory and economic environments in which the Company operates, our financial results could be materially and adversely affected.”
The Company’s results of operations may be impacted by a number of other factors, including an economic slowdown, a recession, financial market volatility, monetary and fiscal policy measures, heightened geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates, the political and regulatory environment, changes to the U.S. Federal budget and potential changes in tax laws.
Investment Portfolio. The Company expects to continue to focus its investment strategy on maintaining a high-quality investment portfolio and a relatively short average effective duration. The weighted average effective duration of fixed maturities and short-term securities was 4.3 (4.5 excluding short-term securities) at December 31, 2024. From time to time, the Company enters into short positions in U.S. Treasury futures contracts to manage the duration of its fixed maturity portfolio. At December 31, 2024, the Company had no open U.S. Treasury futures contracts. The Company regularly evaluates its investment alternatives and mix. Currently, the majority of the Company’s investments are comprised of a widely diversified portfolio of high-quality, liquid, taxable U.S. government, tax-exempt and taxable U.S. municipal, taxable corporate and U.S. agency mortgage-backed bonds.
The Company also invests much smaller amounts in equity securities, real estate and private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships, and joint ventures. These investment classes have the potential for higher returns but also the potential for greater volatility and higher degrees of risk, including less stable rates of return and less liquidity.
Approximately 30% of the fixed maturity portfolio is expected to mature over the next three years (including the early redemption of bonds, assuming interest rates (including credit spreads) do not rise significantly by applicable call dates). As a result, the overall yield on and composition of its portfolio could be meaningfully impacted by the types of investments available for reinvestment with the proceeds of maturing bonds.
Net investment income is a material contributor to the Company’s results of operations. Based on the Company’s current expectations for the impact of expected higher reinvestment yields on the Company’s fixed income investments and higher levels of fixed income investments, the Company expects that after-tax net investment income from that portfolio will be approximately $710 million in the first quarter of 2025, increasing to approximately $790 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. This expectation could be impacted by the direction of interest rates and disruptions in global financial markets. Included in other investments are private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships that are accounted for under the equity method of
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accounting and typically report their financial statement information to the Company one month to three months following the end of the reporting period. Accordingly, net investment income or loss from these other investments is generally reflected in the Company’s financial statements on a quarter lag basis. The Company’s net investment income in future periods from its non-fixed income investment portfolio will be impacted, positively or negatively, by the performance of global financial markets.
The Company had net pre-tax realized investment losses of $30 million in 2024. Changes in global financial markets could result in net realized investment gains or losses in the Company’s investment portfolio.
The Company had a net pre-tax unrealized investment loss of $4.61 billion ($3.64 billion after-tax) in its fixed maturity investment portfolio at December 31, 2024, compared to $3.97 billion ($3.13 billion after-tax) at December 31, 2023. The net unrealized investment loss is primarily due to the impact of movements in interest rates. The increase in the net unrealized investment loss in 2024 was due to increases in interest rates. While the Company does not attempt to predict future interest rate movements, a rising interest rate environment reduces the market value of fixed maturity investments and, therefore, reduces shareholders’ equity, and a declining interest rate environment has the opposite effects. The net unrealized loss discussed above is considered temporary in nature as it is not due to credit impairments, there is no impact on expected contractual cash flows from fixed maturities, and the Company generally holds its fixed maturity investments to maturity. In addition, given the temporary nature of net unrealized losses combined with the Company’s strong operating cash flows (which include income received on investments and the proceeds received upon maturity of the investments), the net unrealized investment loss is not expected to meaningfully impact the Company’s assessment of capital adequacy or liquidity. Equity securities, which include common and non-redeemable preferred stocks, are reported at fair value with changes in fair value recognized in net income.
Additionally, disruptions in global financial markets could also impact the market value of the Company’s investment portfolio. The Company’s investment portfolio has benefited from certain tax exemptions (primarily those related to interest from municipal bonds) and certain other tax laws, including, but not limited to, those governing dividends-received deductions and tax credits (such as foreign tax credits). Changes in these laws could adversely impact the value of the Company’s investment portfolio. See “Our businesses are heavily regulated by the states and countries in which we conduct business, including licensing, market conduct and financial supervision, and changes in regulation, including changes in tax regulation, may reduce our profitability and limit our growth” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors.”
For further discussion of the Company’s investment portfolio, see “Investment Portfolio.” For a discussion of the risks to the Company’s business during or following a financial market disruption and risks to the Company’s investment portfolio, see the risk factors entitled “During or following a period of financial market disruption or an economic downturn, our business could be materially and adversely affected” and “Our investment portfolio is subject to credit and interest rate risk, and may suffer reduced or low returns or material realized or unrealized losses” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors.” For a discussion of the risks to the Company’s investments from foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations, see the risk factor entitled “We are subject to additional risks associated with our business outside the United States” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors” and see “Part II—Item 7A—Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk—Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk.”
Capital Position. The Company believes it has a strong capital position and, as part of its ongoing efforts to create shareholder value, expects to continue to return capital not needed to support its business operations to its shareholders, subject to the considerations described below. The Company expects that, generally over time, the combination of dividends to common shareholders and common share repurchases will likely not exceed net income. The Company also expects that to the extent that it continues to grow premium volumes, the level of capital to support the Company’s financial strength ratings will also increase, and accordingly, the amount of capital returned to shareholders relative to earnings would be somewhat less than it otherwise would have been absent the growth in premium volumes. The timing and actual number of shares to be repurchased in the future will depend on a variety of additional factors, including the Company’s financial position, earnings, share price, catastrophe losses, maintaining capital levels appropriate for the Company’s business operations, changes in levels of written premiums, funding of the Company’s qualified pension plan, capital requirements of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, legal requirements, regulatory constraints, other investment opportunities (including mergers and acquisitions and related financings), market conditions, changes in tax laws and other factors. For information regarding the Company’s common share repurchases in 2024, see “Liquidity and Capital Resources” herein.
As a result of the Company’s business outside of the United States, primarily in Canada, the United Kingdom (including Lloyd’s), the Republic of Ireland and in Brazil through a joint venture, the Company’s capital is also subject to the effects of changes in foreign currency exchange rates. Strengthening of the U.S. dollar in comparison to other currencies could result in a reduction in shareholders’ equity, while a weakening of the U.S. dollar in comparison to other currencies could result in an
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increase in shareholders’ equity. For additional discussion of the Company’s foreign exchange market risk exposure, see “Part II—Item 7A—Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.”
Many of the statements in this “Outlook” section and in “Liquidity and Capital Resources” are forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that are often difficult to predict and beyond the Company’s control. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Further, such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this report and the Company undertakes no obligation to update them. See “—Forward Looking Statements.” For a discussion of potential risks and uncertainties that could impact the Company’s results of operations or financial position, see “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors” and “Critical Accounting Estimates.”
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Liquidity is a measure of a company’s ability to generate sufficient cash flows to meet the cash requirements of its business operations and to satisfy general corporate purposes when needed.
Operating Company Liquidity. The liquidity requirements of the Company’s insurance subsidiaries are met primarily by funds generated from premiums, fees, income received on investments and investment maturities. Cash provided from these sources is used primarily for claims and claim adjustment expense payments and operating expenses. The insurance subsidiaries’ liquidity requirements can be impacted by, among other factors, the timing and amount of catastrophe claims, which are inherently unpredictable, as well as the timing and amount of reinsurance recoveries, which may be affected by reinsurer solvency and reinsurance coverage disputes. Additionally, the variability of asbestos-related claim payments, as well as the volatility of potential judgments and settlements arising out of litigation, may also result in increased liquidity requirements. While an environment of higher interest rates during 2023 and 2024 resulted in significant net unrealized investment losses, the net unrealized loss is considered temporary in nature as it is not due to credit impairments, there is no impact on expected contractual cash flows from fixed maturities, and the Company generally holds its high-quality fixed maturity investments to maturity. In addition, given the temporary nature of net unrealized losses combined with the Company’s strong operating cash flows (which include income received on investments and the proceeds received upon maturity of the investments), the net unrealized investment loss is not expected to meaningfully impact the Company’s assessment of capital adequacy or liquidity. It is the opinion of the Company’s management that the insurance subsidiaries’ future liquidity needs will be adequately met from all of the sources described above. Subject to the restrictions imposed by states in which the Company’s insurance subsidiaries are domiciled, the Company’s principal insurance subsidiaries pay dividends to their respective parent companies, which, in turn, pay dividends to the corporate holding (parent) company (TRV). For further information regarding restrictions on dividends paid by the Company’s insurance subsidiaries, see “Part I—Item 1—Business—Regulation.”
Holding Company Liquidity. TRV’s liquidity requirements primarily include shareholder dividends, debt servicing, common share repurchases and, from time to time, contributions to its qualified domestic pension plan. At December 31, 2024, TRV held total cash and short-term invested assets in the United States aggregating $1.80 billion and having a weighted average maturity of 22 days. TRV has established a holding company liquidity target equal to its estimated annual pre-tax interest expense and common shareholder dividends (currently approximately $1.33 billion). TRV’s holding company liquidity of $1.80 billion at December 31, 2024 exceeded this target, and it is the opinion of the Company’s management that these assets are sufficient to meet TRV’s current liquidity requirements.
TRV is not dependent on dividends or other forms of repatriation from its foreign operations to support its liquidity needs. The undistributed earnings of the Company’s foreign operations are intended to be permanently reinvested in those operations, and such earnings were not material to the Company’s financial position or liquidity at December 31, 2024.
TRV has a shelf registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission that expires on June 8, 2025 which permits it to issue securities from time to time. TRV also has a $1.0 billion line of credit facility with a syndicate of financial institutions that expires on June 15, 2027. At December 31, 2024, the Company had $100 million of commercial paper outstanding. TRV is not reliant on its commercial paper program to meet its operating cash flow needs. The Company has no senior notes or junior subordinated debentures maturing until April 2026, at which time $200 million of senior notes will mature.
The Company utilized uncollateralized letters of credit issued by major banks with an aggregate limit of $260 million to provide a portion of the capital needed to support its obligations at Lloyd’s at December 31, 2024. If uncollateralized letters of credit are not available at a reasonable price or at all in the future, the Company can collateralize these letters of credit or may have to seek alternative means of supporting its obligations at Lloyd’s, which could include utilizing holding company funds on hand.
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Operating Activities
Net cash provided by operating activities was $9.07 billion and $7.71 billion in 2024 and 2023, respectively. The increase in cash flows in 2024 primarily reflected the impacts of higher levels of cash received for premiums, partially offset by higher levels of payments for income taxes, claims and claim adjustment expenses, general and administrative expenses and commissions. The increase in cash paid for claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2024 was impacted by business growth and higher loss costs. The increase in cash received for premiums in 2024 compared to the prior year was impacted by business growth including the impact of positive renewal premium changes.
Investing Activities
Net cash used in investing activities was $7.26 billion and $6.82 billion in 2024 and 2023, respectively. The Company’s consolidated total investments at December 31, 2024 increased by $5.41 billion, or 6% over December 31, 2023, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) net cash flows provided by operating activities, partially offset by (ii) net cash used in financing activities, (iii) higher net unrealized investment losses on investments due to the impact of higher interest rates during 2024 and (iv) the cost of acquiring Corvus.
The Company’s investment portfolio is managed to support its insurance operations; accordingly, the portfolio is positioned to meet obligations to policyholders. As such, the primary goals of the Company’s asset-liability management process are to satisfy the insurance liabilities and maintain sufficient liquidity to cover fluctuations in projected liability cash flows. Generally, the expected principal and interest payments produced by the Company’s fixed maturity portfolio adequately fund the estimated runoff of the Company’s insurance reserves. Although this is not an exact cash flow match in each period, the substantial amount by which the market value of the fixed maturity portfolio exceeds the value of the net insurance liabilities, as well as the positive cash flow from newly sold policies and the large amount of high quality liquid bonds, contributes to the Company’s ability to fund claim payments without having to sell illiquid assets or access credit facilities.
Financing Activities
Net cash used in financing activities was $1.75 billion and $1.05 billion in 2024 and 2023, respectively. The totals in both 2024 and 2023 reflected common share repurchases and dividends paid to shareholders, partially offset by the net proceeds from employee stock option exercises. The total in 2023 also included net proceeds from the issuance of debt. Common share repurchases in 2024 and 2023 were $1.12 billion and $1.02 billion, respectively.
Debt Transactions.
2023. On May 25, 2023, the Company issued $750 million aggregate principal amount of 5.45% senior notes that will mature on May 25, 2053. The net proceeds of the issuance, after the deduction of the underwriting discount and expenses payable by the Company, totaled approximately $738 million. Interest on the senior notes is payable semi-annually in arrears on May 25 and November 25. Prior to November 25, 2052, the senior notes may be redeemed, in whole or in part, at the Company’s option, at any time or from time to time, at a redemption price equal to the greater of (a) 100% of the principal amount of any senior notes to be redeemed or (b) the sum of the present values of the remaining scheduled payments of principal and interest to but excluding November 25, 2052 on any senior notes to be redeemed (exclusive of interest accrued to the date of redemption) discounted to the date of redemption on a semi-annual basis (assuming a 360-day year consisting of twelve 30-day months) at the then current Treasury rate (as defined in the senior notes), plus 25 basis points. On or after November 25, 2052, the senior notes may be redeemed, in whole or in part, at the Company’s option, at any time or from time to time, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of any senior notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the redemption date.
Dividends. Dividends paid to shareholders were $951 million and $908 million in 2024 and 2023, respectively. The declaration and payment of future dividends to holders of the Company’s common stock will be at the discretion of the Company’s Board of Directors and will depend upon many factors, including the Company’s financial position, earnings, capital requirements of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, legal requirements, regulatory constraints and other factors as the Board of Directors deems relevant. Dividends will be paid by the Company only if declared by its Board of Directors out of funds legally available, subject to any other restrictions that may be applicable to the Company. On January 22, 2025, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.05 per share, payable March 31, 2025, to shareholders of record on March 10, 2025.
Share Repurchases. The Company’s Board of Directors has approved common share repurchase authorizations under which repurchases may be made from time to time in the open market, pursuant to pre-set trading plans meeting the requirements of Rule 10b5-1 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, in private transactions or otherwise. The authorizations do not have a
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stated expiration date. The most recent authorization was approved by the Board of Directors on April 19, 2023 and added $5.0 billion of repurchase capacity to the $1.60 billion of capacity remaining at that date. The Company expects that, generally over time, the combination of dividends to common shareholders and common share repurchases will likely not exceed net income. The Company also expects that to the extent that it continues to grow premium volumes, the amount of capital returned to shareholders relative to earnings would be somewhat less than it otherwise would have been absent the growth in premium volumes. The timing and actual number of shares to be repurchased in the future will depend on a variety of factors, including the Company’s financial position, earnings, share price, catastrophe losses, maintaining capital levels appropriate for the Company’s business operations, changes in levels of written premiums, funding of the Company’s qualified pension plan, capital requirements of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, legal requirements, regulatory constraints, other investment opportunities (including mergers and acquisitions and related financings), market conditions, changes in tax laws and other factors. During 2024, the Company repurchased 4.4 million shares under its share repurchase authorizations, for a total of $1.00 billion. The average cost per share repurchased was $225.44. Common share repurchases in 2024 were higher than the total of $965 million in 2023. The cost of treasury stock acquired pursuant to common share repurchases includes the 1% excise tax imposed as part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. At December 31, 2024, the Company had $5.04 billion of capacity remaining under its share repurchase authorizations.
From the inception of the first authorization on May 2, 2006 through December 31, 2024, the Company has repurchased a cumulative total of 548.3 million shares for a total of $40.96 billion, or an average of $74.71 per share.
In 2024 and 2023, the Company acquired 0.7 million and 0.3 million shares of common stock, respectively, from employees as treasury stock primarily to cover payroll withholding taxes in connection with the vesting of restricted stock unit awards and performance share awards, and shares used by employees to cover the exercise price, as well as the related payroll withholding taxes, with respect to certain stock options that were exercised.
Capital Resources
Capital resources reflect the overall financial strength of the Company and its ability to borrow funds at competitive rates and raise new capital to meet its needs. The following table summarizes the components of the Company’s capital structure at December 31, 2024 and 2023:
| (at December 31, in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt: | |||||||
| Short-term | $ | 100 | $ | 100 | |||
| Long-term | 8,004 | 8,004 | |||||
| Net unamortized fair value adjustments and debt issuance costs | (71) | (73) | |||||
| Total debt | 8,033 | 8,031 | |||||
| Shareholders’ equity: | |||||||
| Common stock and retained earnings, less treasury stock | 32,831 | 29,392 | |||||
| Accumulated other comprehensive loss | (4,967) | (4,471) | |||||
| Total shareholders’ equity | 27,864 | 24,921 | |||||
| Total capitalization | $ | 35,897 | $ | 32,952 |
Total capitalization at December 31, 2024 was $35.90 billion, $2.95 billion higher than at December 31, 2023, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) net income of $5.00 billion and (ii) proceeds from the exercise of employee share options of $321 million, partially offset by (iii) common share repurchases totaling $1.00 billion under the Company’s share repurchase authorizations, (iv) shareholder dividends of $962 million and (v) an other comprehensive loss of $496 million, primarily reflecting an increase in net unrealized losses on investments due to a change in interest rates during 2024.
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The following table provides a reconciliation of total capitalization presented in the foregoing table to total capitalization excluding net unrealized losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity:
| (at December 31, dollars in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total capitalization | $ | 35,897 | $ | 32,952 | |||
| Less: net unrealized losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity | (3,640) | (3,129) | |||||
| Total capitalization excluding net unrealized losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity | $ | 39,537 | $ | 36,081 | |||
| Debt-to-total capital ratio | 22.4 | % | 24.4 | % | |||
| Debt-to-total capital ratio excluding net unrealized losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity | 20.3 | % | 22.3 | % |
The debt-to-total capital ratio excluding net unrealized gains (losses) on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity, is calculated by dividing (a) debt by (b) total capitalization excluding net unrealized gains and losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity. Net unrealized gains and losses on investments can be significantly impacted by both interest rate movements and other economic factors. Accordingly, in the opinion of the Company’s management, the debt-to-total capital ratio calculated on this basis provides another useful metric for investors to understand the Company’s financial leverage position. The Company’s ratio of debt-to-total capital excluding after-tax net unrealized investment losses included in shareholders’ equity of 20.3% at December 31, 2024 was within the Company’s target range of 15% to 25%.
Credit Agreement. The Company is a party to a five-year, $1.0 billion revolving credit agreement with a syndicate of financial institutions that expires on June 15, 2027. Terms of the credit agreement are discussed in more detail in note 9 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Shelf Registration. The Company has filed a universal shelf registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission that expires on June 8, 2025 for the potential offering and sale of securities. The Company may offer these securities from time to time at prices and on other terms to be determined at the time of offering.
Share Repurchase Authorizations. At December 31, 2024, the Company had $5.04 billion of capacity remaining under its share repurchase authorizations approved by the Board of Directors.
Cash Requirements from Contractual and Other Obligations
The following table summarizes, as of December 31, 2024, the Company’s estimated future payments under material contractual obligations and estimated claims and claim-related payments. The table includes only obligations at December 31, 2024 that are expected to be settled in cash.
The table below includes the amount and estimated future timing of claims and claim-related payments. The amounts do not represent the exact liability, but instead represent estimates, generally utilizing actuarial projection techniques, at a given accounting date. These estimates include expectations of what the ultimate settlement and administration of claims will cost based on the Company’s assessment of facts and circumstances known, review of historical settlement patterns, estimates of trends in claims severity, frequency, legal theories of liability and other factors. Variables in the reserve estimation process can be affected by both internal and external events, such as changes in claims handling procedures, economic inflation or deflation, legal trends and legislative changes. Many of these items are not directly quantifiable, particularly on a prospective basis. Additionally, there may be significant reporting lags between the occurrence of the policyholder event and the time it is actually reported to the insurer. The future cash flows related to the items contained in the table below required estimation of both amount (including severity considerations) and timing. Amount and timing are frequently estimated separately. An estimation of both amount and timing of future cash flows related to claims and claim-related payments has unavoidable estimation uncertainty.
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The material cash requirements from contractual and other obligations at December 31, 2024 were as follows:
| Payments Due by Period (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt | |||||||||||||||||||
| Senior notes | $ | 7,750 | $ | — | $ | 200 | $ | — | $ | 7,550 | |||||||||
| Junior subordinated debentures | 254 | — | 125 | — | 129 | ||||||||||||||
| Total debt principal | 8,004 | — | 325 | — | 7,679 | ||||||||||||||
| Interest | 7,039 | 389 | 755 | 728 | 5,167 | ||||||||||||||
| Total long-term debt obligations (1) | 15,043 | 389 | 1,080 | 728 | 12,846 | ||||||||||||||
| Real estate and other operating leases (2) | 358 | 79 | 129 | 83 | 67 | ||||||||||||||
| Information systems-related commitments (3) | 915 | 503 | 378 | 34 | — | ||||||||||||||
| Unfunded investment commitments (4) | 1,490 | 295 | 463 | 509 | 223 | ||||||||||||||
| Estimated claims and claim-related payments | |||||||||||||||||||
| Claims and claim adjustment expenses (5) | 62,537 | 15,045 | 15,888 | 8,516 | 23,088 | ||||||||||||||
| Claims from large deductible policies (6) | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| Total estimated claims and claim-related payments | 62,537 | 15,045 | 15,888 | 8,516 | 23,088 | ||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 80,343 | $ | 16,311 | $ | 17,938 | $ | 9,870 | $ | 36,224 |
________________________________________
(1)See note 9 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for a further discussion of outstanding indebtedness. Because the amounts reported in the foregoing table include principal and interest, the total long-term debt obligations will not agree with the amounts reported in note 9.
(2)Represents agreements entered into in the ordinary course of business to lease office space, equipment and furniture.
(3)Includes agreements with vendors to purchase system software (including software as a service), software maintenance services and technology-related costs.
(4)Represents estimated timing for fulfilling unfunded commitments for private equity limited partnerships, real estate partnerships and other investments.
(5)The amounts in “Claims and claim adjustment expenses” in the table above represent the estimated timing of future payments for both reported and unreported claims incurred and related claim adjustment expenses, gross of reinsurance recoverables, excluding structured settlements expected to be paid by annuity companies.
The Company has entered into reinsurance agreements to manage its exposure to losses and protect its capital as described in note 6 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
In order to qualify for reinsurance accounting, a reinsurance agreement must indemnify the insurer from insurance risk, i.e., the agreement must transfer amount and timing risk. Since the timing and amount of cash inflows from such reinsurance agreements are directly related to the underlying payment of claims and claim adjustment expenses by the insurer, reinsurance recoverables are recognized in a manner consistent with the liabilities (the estimated liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses) relating to the underlying reinsured contracts. The presence of any feature that can delay timely reimbursement of claims by a reinsurer results in the reinsurance contract being accounted for as a deposit rather than reinsurance. The assumptions used in estimating the amount and timing of the reinsurance recoverables are consistent with those used in estimating the amount and timing of the related liabilities.
The estimated future cash inflows from the Company’s reinsurance contracts that qualify for reinsurance accounting are as follows:
| (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance recoverables | $ | 5,090 | $ | 927 | $ | 1,034 | $ | 610 | $ | 2,519 |
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The Company manages its business and evaluates its liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses on a net of reinsurance basis. The estimated cash flows on a net of reinsurance basis are as follows:
| (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claims and claim adjustment expenses, net | $ | 57,447 | $ | 14,118 | $ | 14,854 | $ | 7,906 | $ | 20,569 |
For business underwritten by non-U.S. operations, future cash flows related to reported and unreported claims incurred and related claim adjustment expenses were translated at the spot rate on December 31, 2024.
The amounts reported in the table above and in the table of reinsurance recoverables above are presented on a nominal basis and have not been adjusted to reflect the time value of money. Accordingly, the amounts above will differ from the Company’s balance sheet to the extent that the liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses and the related reinsurance recoverables have been discounted in the balance sheet. See note 1 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
(6) Workers’ compensation large deductible policies provide third-party coverage in which the Company typically is responsible for paying the entire loss under such policies and then seeks reimbursement from the insured for the deductible amount. “Claims from large deductible policies” represent the estimated future payment for claims and claim related expenses below the deductible amount, net of the estimated recovery of the deductible. The liability and the related deductible receivable for unpaid claims are presented in the consolidated balance sheet as “contractholder payables” and “contractholder receivables,” respectively. Most deductibles for such policies are paid directly from the policyholder’s escrow, which is periodically replenished by the policyholder. The payment of the loss amounts above the deductible are reported within “Claims and claim adjustment expenses” in the above table. Because the timing of the collection of the deductible (contractholder receivables) occurs shortly after the payment of the deductible to a claimant (contractholder payables), these cash flows offset each other in the table.
The estimated timing of the payment of the contractholder payables and the collection of contractholder receivables (net of allowance for expected credit losses) for workers’ compensation policies is presented below:
| (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contractholder payables/receivables | $ | 3,171 | $ | 1,023 | $ | 967 | $ | 416 | $ | 765 |
The above table does not include an analysis of liabilities reported for structured settlements for which the Company has purchased annuities and remains contingently liable in the event of default by the company issuing the annuity. The Company is not reasonably likely to incur material future payment obligations under such agreements. In addition, the Company is not currently subject to any minimum funding requirements for its qualified pension plan. Accordingly, future contributions are not included in the foregoing table.
The Company believes that the combination of operating company liquidity, holding company liquidity, its investment portfolio and its capital resources are sufficient to meet its contractual obligations.
Dividend Availability
The Company’s principal insurance subsidiaries are domiciled in the State of Connecticut. The insurance holding company laws of Connecticut applicable to the Company’s subsidiaries requires notice to, and approval by, the state insurance commissioner for the declaration or payment of any dividend that, together with other distributions made within the preceding twelve months, exceeds the greater of 10% of the insurer’s statutory capital and surplus as of the preceding December 31, or the insurer’s net income for the twelve-month period ending the preceding December 31, in each case determined in accordance with statutory accounting practices and by state regulation. This declaration or payment is further limited by adjusted unassigned surplus, as determined in accordance with statutory accounting practices. The insurance holding company laws of other states in which the Company’s subsidiaries are domiciled generally contain similar, although in some instances somewhat more restrictive, limitations on the payment of dividends. A maximum of $4.17 billion is available by the end of 2025 for such dividends to ultimately be paid to the holding company, TRV, without prior approval of the Connecticut Insurance Department. The Company may choose to accelerate the timing within 2025 and/or increase the amount of dividends from its insurance subsidiaries in 2025, which could result in certain dividends being subject to approval by the Connecticut Insurance Department prior to payment.
In addition to the regulatory restrictions on the amount of dividends that can be paid by the Company’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries, the maximum amount of dividends that may be paid to the Company’s shareholders is also limited, to a lesser degree, by certain covenants contained in its line of credit agreement with a syndicate of financial institutions that require the
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Company to maintain a minimum consolidated net worth as described in note 9 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
TRV is not dependent on dividends or other forms of repatriation from its foreign operations to support its liquidity needs. The undistributed earnings of the Company’s foreign operations are intended to be permanently reinvested in those operations, and such earnings were not material to the Company’s financial position or liquidity at December 31, 2024.
The U.S. insurance subsidiaries paid dividends of $2.00 billion and $1.17 billion during 2024 and 2023, respectively.
Pension and Other Postretirement Benefit Plans
The Company sponsors a qualified non-contributory defined benefit pension plan (the qualified domestic pension plan), which covers substantially all U.S. domestic employees and provides benefits primarily under a cash balance formula. In addition, the Company sponsors a nonqualified defined benefit pension plan which covers certain highly-compensated employees, pension plans for employees of its foreign subsidiaries, and a postretirement health and life insurance benefit plan for employees satisfying certain age and service requirements and for certain retirees.
The qualified domestic pension plan is subject to regulations under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 as amended (ERISA), which requires plans to meet minimum standards of funding and requires such plans to subscribe to plan termination insurance through the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). The Company does not have a minimum funding requirement for the qualified domestic pension plan for 2025 and does not anticipate having a minimum funding requirement in 2026. The Company has significant discretion in making contributions above those necessary to satisfy the minimum funding requirements. In 2024, 2023 and 2022, there was no minimum funding requirement for the qualified domestic pension plan. In 2024, 2023 and 2022, the Company made no voluntary contributions to the qualified domestic pension plan. The qualified domestic pension plan had a funded status of 130% and 120% at December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively. Based on its funded status at December 31, 2024, the Company does not currently anticipate making a voluntary contribution to the qualified domestic pension plan in 2025. In determining future contributions, the Company will consider the performance of the plan’s investment portfolio, the effects of interest rates on the projected benefit obligation of the plan and the Company’s other capital requirements.
The qualified domestic pension plan assets are managed to maximize long-term total return while maintaining an appropriate level of risk. The Company’s overall investment strategy is to achieve a mix of approximately 85% to 90% of investments for long-term growth and 10% to 15% for near-term benefit payments with a diversification of asset types, fund strategies and fund managers. The current target allocations for plan assets are 55% to 65% equity securities and 20% to 40% fixed income securities, with the remainder allocated to short-term securities. For 2025, the Company plans to apply an expected long-term rate of return on plan assets of 7.00%, comparable with 2024. The expected rate of return reflects the Company’s current expectations with regard to long-term returns in the capital markets, taking into account the pension plan’s asset allocation targets, the historical performance and current valuation of U.S. and international equities, and the level of long term interest rate and inflation expectations.
For further discussion of the pension and other postretirement benefit plans, see note 15 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Risk-Based Capital
The NAIC has an RBC requirement for most property and casualty insurance companies, which determines minimum capital requirements and is intended to raise the level of protection for policyholder obligations. The Company’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries are subject to these NAIC RBC requirements based on laws that have been adopted by individual states. These requirements subject insurers having policyholders’ surplus less than that required by the RBC calculation to varying degrees of regulatory action, depending on the level of capital inadequacy. Each of the Company’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries had policyholders’ surplus at December 31, 2024 significantly above the level at which any RBC regulatory action would occur. Regulators in the jurisdictions in which the Company’s foreign insurance subsidiaries are located require insurance companies to maintain certain levels of capital depending on, among other things, the type and amount of insurance policies written. Each of the Company’s foreign insurance subsidiaries had capital significantly above their respective regulatory requirements at December 31, 2024.
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Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements
The Company has entered into certain contingent obligations for guarantees related to selling businesses to third parties, certain investments, certain insurance policy obligations of former insurance subsidiaries and various other indemnifications. See note 17 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements. The Company does not believe it is reasonably likely that these arrangements will have a material current or future effect on the Company’s financial position, changes in financial position, revenues and expenses, results of operations, liquidity, capital expenditures or capital resources.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
The Company considers its most significant accounting estimates to be those applied to claims and claim adjustment expense reserves and related reinsurance recoverables, and impairments of investments, goodwill and other intangible assets.
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expense Reserves
Gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves by product line were as follows:
| December 31, 2024 | December 31, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in millions) | Case | IBNR | Total | Case | IBNR | Total | |||||||||||||||||
| General liability | $ | 5,845 | $ | 11,349 | $ | 17,194 | $ | 5,658 | $ | 10,214 | $ | 15,872 | |||||||||||
| Commercial property | 1,384 | 342 | 1,726 | 1,447 | 281 | 1,728 | |||||||||||||||||
| Commercial multi-peril | 3,015 | 3,438 | 6,453 | 2,869 | 2,905 | 5,774 | |||||||||||||||||
| Commercial automobile | 2,749 | 3,195 | 5,944 | 2,661 | 2,773 | 5,434 | |||||||||||||||||
| Workers’ compensation | 9,980 | 8,749 | 18,729 | 10,004 | 9,203 | 19,207 | |||||||||||||||||
| Fidelity and surety | 210 | 571 | 781 | 265 | 466 | 731 | |||||||||||||||||
| Personal automobile | 2,315 | 2,588 | 4,903 | 2,245 | 2,460 | 4,705 | |||||||||||||||||
| Personal homeowners and other | 1,238 | 1,833 | 3,071 | 1,217 | 2,004 | 3,221 | |||||||||||||||||
| International and other | 2,561 | 2,726 | 5,287 | 2,620 | 2,329 | 4,949 | |||||||||||||||||
| Property-casualty | 29,297 | 34,791 | 64,088 | 28,986 | 32,635 | 61,621 | |||||||||||||||||
| Accident and health | 5 | — | 5 | 6 | — | 6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves | $ | 29,302 | $ | 34,791 | $ | 64,093 | $ | 28,992 | $ | 32,635 | $ | 61,627 |
The $2.47 billion increase in gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves since December 31, 2023 primarily reflected the impacts of (i) catastrophe losses in 2024, (ii) higher volumes of insured exposures and (iii) loss cost trends for the current accident year, partially offset by (iv) claim payments made during 2024 and (v) net favorable prior year reserve development.
Asbestos and environmental reserves are included in the General liability, Commercial multi-peril and International and other lines in the foregoing summary table. Asbestos and environmental reserves are discussed separately; see “Asbestos Claims and Litigation,” “Environmental Claims and Litigation” and “Uncertainty Regarding Adequacy of Asbestos and Environmental Reserves” herein.
Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves represent management’s estimate of the ultimate liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses for claims that have been reported and claims that have been incurred but not yet reported (IBNR) as of the balance sheet date. Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves do not represent an exact calculation of liability, but instead represent management estimates, primarily utilizing actuarial expertise and projection methods. These estimates are expectations of what the ultimate settlement and administration of claims will cost upon final resolution in the future, based on the Company’s assessment of facts and circumstances then known, review of historical settlement patterns, estimates of trends in claims severity and frequency, expected interpretations of legal theories of liability and other factors. In establishing gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, the Company also considers salvage and subrogation. Estimated recoveries from reinsurance are included in “Reinsurance Recoverables” as an asset on the Company’s consolidated balance sheet. The claims and claim adjustment expense reserves are reviewed regularly by qualified actuaries employed by the Company.
The process of estimating claims and claim adjustment expense reserves involves a high degree of judgment and is subject to a number of variables. These variables can be affected by both internal and external events, such as changes in claims handling procedures, changes in individuals involved in the reserve estimation process, economic inflation, changes in the tort environment, legal trends and legislative changes, among others. The impact of many of these items on ultimate costs for claims
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and claim adjustment expenses is difficult to estimate. Estimation difficulties also differ significantly by product line due to differences in claim complexity, the volume of claims, the potential severity of individual claims, the determination of occurrence date for a claim and reporting lags (the time between the occurrence of the policyholder event and when it is actually reported to the insurer). Informed judgment is applied throughout the process, including the application of various individual experiences and expertise to multiple sets of data and analyses. The Company refines its estimates in a regular ongoing process as historical loss experience develops and additional claims are reported and settled. The Company rigorously attempts to consider all significant facts and circumstances known at the time claims and claim adjustment expense reserves are established. Due to the inherent uncertainty underlying these estimates including, but not limited to, the future settlement environment, final resolution of the estimated liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses may be higher or lower than the related claims and claim adjustment expense reserves at the reporting date. Therefore, actual paid losses, as claims are settled in the future, may be materially different than the amount currently recorded-favorable or unfavorable. Because establishment of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves is an inherently uncertain process involving estimates and the application of judgment, currently established claims and claim adjustment expense reserves may change. The Company reflects adjustments to the reserves in the results of operations in the period the estimates are changed.
There are also additional risks which impact the estimation of ultimate costs for catastrophes. For example, the estimation of reserves related to hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires and other catastrophic events can be affected by the inability of the Company and its insureds to access portions of the impacted areas, the complexity of factors contributing to the losses, the legal and regulatory uncertainties, including the interpretation of policy terms and conditions, and the nature of the information available to establish the reserves. Complex factors include, but are not limited to: determining whether damage was caused by flooding versus wind; evaluating general liability and pollution exposures; estimating additional living expenses; estimating the impact of demand surge, infrastructure disruption, fraud, the effect of mold damage and business interruption costs; and reinsurance collectibility. The timing of a catastrophe, such as at or near the end of a reporting period, can also affect the information available to the Company in estimating reserves for that reporting period. The estimates related to catastrophes are adjusted as actual claims emerge.
A portion of the Company’s gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves (totaling $2.11 billion at December 31, 2024) are for asbestos and environmental claims and related litigation. While the ongoing review of asbestos and environmental claims and associated liabilities considers the inconsistencies of court decisions as to coverage, plaintiffs’ expanded theories of liability and the risks inherent in complex litigation and other uncertainties, in the opinion of the Company’s management, it is possible that the outcome of the continued uncertainties regarding these claims could result in liability in future periods that differs from current insurance reserves by an amount that could be material to the Company’s future operating results. See the preceding discussion of “Asbestos Claims and Litigation” and “Environmental Claims and Litigation.”
General Discussion
The process for estimating the liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses begins with the collection and analysis of claim data. Data on individual reported claims, both current and historical, including paid amounts and individual claim adjuster estimates, are grouped by common characteristics (components) and evaluated by actuaries in their analyses of ultimate claim liabilities. Such data is occasionally supplemented with external data as available and when appropriate. The process of analyzing reserves for a component is undertaken on a regular basis, generally quarterly, in light of continually updated information.
Multiple estimation methods are available for the analysis of ultimate claim liabilities. Each estimation method has its own set of assumption variables and its own advantages and disadvantages, with no single estimation method being better than the others in all situations and no one set of assumption variables being meaningful for all product line components. The relative strengths and weaknesses of the particular estimation methods when applied to a particular group of claims can also change over time. Therefore, the actual choice of estimation method(s) can change with each evaluation. The estimation method(s) chosen are those that are believed to produce the most reliable indication at that particular evaluation date for the claim liabilities being evaluated.
In most cases, multiple estimation methods will be valid for the particular facts and circumstances of the claim liabilities being evaluated. This will result in a range of reasonable estimates for any particular claim liability. The Company uses such range analyses to back test whether previously established estimates for reserves by reporting segments are reasonable, given available information. Reported values found to be closer to the endpoints of a range of reasonable estimates are subject to further detailed reviews. These reviews may substantiate the validity of management’s recorded estimate or lead to a change in the reported estimate.
The exact boundary points of these ranges are more qualitative than quantitative in nature, as no clear line of demarcation exists to determine when the set of underlying assumptions for an estimation method switches from being reasonable to unreasonable.
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As a result, the Company does not believe that the endpoints of these ranges are or would be comparable across companies. In addition, potential interactions among the different estimation assumptions for different product lines make the aggregation of individual ranges a highly judgmental and inexact process.
Property-casualty insurance policies are either written on a “claims-made” or on an “occurrence” basis. Claims-made policies generally cover, subject to requirements in individual policies, claims reported during the policy period. Policies that are written on an occurrence basis require that the insured demonstrate that a loss occurred in the policy period, even if the insured reports the loss many years later.
Most general liability policies are written on an occurrence basis. These policies are subject to substantial loss development over time as facts and circumstances change in the years following the policy issuance. The occurrence form, which accounts for much of the reserve development in asbestos and environmental exposures, is also used to provide coverage for construction general liability, including construction defect. Occurrence-based forms of insurance for general liability exposures require substantial projection of loss trends, which can be influenced by a number of factors, including future inflation, judicial interpretations and societal litigation trends (e.g., size of jury awards and propensity of individuals to pursue litigation), among others.
A basic premise in most actuarial analyses is that past patterns demonstrated in the data will repeat themselves in the future, absent a material change in the associated risk factors discussed below. To the extent a material change affecting the ultimate claim liability is known, such change is estimated to the extent possible through an analysis of internal company data and, if available and when appropriate, external data. Such a measurement is specific to the facts and circumstances of the particular claim portfolio and the known change being evaluated. Significant structural changes to the available data, product mix or organization can materially impact the reserve estimation process. In addition, the introduction of new products creates a unique risk as historical company data would typically not be available.
Informed judgment is applied throughout the reserving process. This includes the application of various individual experiences and expertise to multiple sets of data and analyses. In addition to actuaries, experts involved with the reserving process also include underwriting and claims personnel and lawyers, as well as other company management. Therefore, management may have to consider varying individual viewpoints as part of its estimation of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves. It is also likely that during periods of significant change, such as a merger, consistent application of informed judgment becomes even more complicated and difficult.
The variables discussed above in this general discussion have different impacts on reserve estimation uncertainty for a given product line, depending on the length of the claim tail, the reporting lag, the impact of individual claims and the complexity of the claim process for a given product line.
Product lines are generally classifiable as either long tail or short tail, based on the average length of time between the event triggering claims under a policy and the final resolution of those claims. Short tail claims are reported and settled quickly, resulting in less estimation variability. The longer the time to final claim resolution, the greater the exposure to estimation risks and hence the greater the estimation uncertainty.
A major component of the claim tail is the reporting lag. The reporting lag, which is the time between the event triggering a claim and the reporting of the claim to the insurer, makes estimating IBNR inherently more uncertain. In addition, the greater the reporting lag, the greater the proportion of IBNR to the total claim liability for the product line. Writing new products with material reporting lags can result in adding several years’ worth of IBNR claim exposure before the reporting lag exposure becomes clearly observable, thereby increasing the risk associated with estimating the liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses for such products. The most extreme example of claim liabilities with long reporting lags are asbestos claims.
For some lines, the impact of large individual claims can be material to the analysis. These lines are generally referred to as being “low frequency/high severity,” while lines without this “large claim” sensitivity are referred to as “high frequency/low severity.” Estimates of claim liabilities for low frequency/high severity lines can be sensitive to the impact of a small number of potentially large claims. As a result, the role of judgment is much greater for these reserve estimates. In contrast, for high frequency/low severity lines the impact of individual claims is relatively minor and the range of reasonable reserve estimates is likely narrower and more stable.
Claim complexity can also greatly affect the estimation process by impacting the number of assumptions needed to produce the estimate, the potential stability of the underlying data and claim process, and the ability to gain an understanding of the data. Product lines with greater claim complexity, such as for certain surety and construction exposures, have inherently greater estimation uncertainty.
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Actuaries have to exercise a considerable degree of judgment in the evaluation of all these factors in their analysis of reserves. The human element in the application of actuarial judgment is unavoidable when faced with material uncertainty. Different actuaries may choose different assumptions when faced with such uncertainty, based on their individual backgrounds, professional experiences and areas of focus. Hence, the estimates selected by the various actuaries may differ materially from each other.
Lastly, significant structural changes to the available data, product mix or organization can also materially impact the reserve estimation process. Events such as mergers increase the inherent uncertainty of reserve estimates for a period of time, until stable trends re-establish themselves within the new organization.
FY 2023 10-K MD&A
SEC filing source: 0000086312-24-000012.
Item 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following is a discussion and analysis of the Company’s financial condition and results of operations for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, including year-to-year comparisons between 2023 and 2022. Year-to-year comparisons between 2022 and 2021 have been omitted from this Form 10-K, but may be found in “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Part II, Item 7 of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022.
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
2023 Consolidated Results of Operations
•Net income of $2.99 billion, or $12.93 per share basic and $12.79 per share diluted
•Net earned premiums of $37.76 billion
•Catastrophe losses of $2.99 billion ($2.36 billion after-tax)
•Net favorable prior year reserve development of $143 million ($113 million after-tax)
•Combined ratio of 97.0%
•Net investment income of $2.92 billion ($2.44 billion after-tax)
•Net realized investment losses of $105 million ($81 million after-tax)
•Operating cash flows of $7.71 billion
2023 Consolidated Financial Condition
•Total investments of $88.81 billion; fixed maturities and short-term securities comprised 93% of total investments
•Total assets of $125.98 billion
•Total debt of $8.03 billion, resulting in a debt-to-total capital ratio of 24.4% (22.3% excluding net unrealized investment losses, net of tax, included in shareholders’ equity)
•Total capital returned to shareholders of $1.94 billion, comprising $1.03 billion of share repurchases and $915 million of dividends
•Shareholders’ equity of $24.92 billion
•Net unrealized investment losses of $3.97 billion ($3.13 billion after-tax)
•Book value per common share of $109.19
•Holding company liquidity of $1.54 billion
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CONSOLIDATED OVERVIEW
Consolidated Results of Operations
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions except ratio and per share amounts) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Premiums | $ | 37,761 | $ | 33,763 | $ | 30,855 | |||||
| Net investment income | 2,922 | 2,562 | 3,033 | ||||||||
| Fee income | 433 | 412 | 402 | ||||||||
| Net realized investment gains (losses) | (105) | (204) | 171 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 353 | 351 | 355 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 41,364 | 36,884 | 34,816 | ||||||||
| Claims and expenses | |||||||||||
| Claims and claim adjustment expenses | 26,215 | 22,854 | 20,298 | ||||||||
| Amortization of deferred acquisition costs | 6,226 | 5,515 | 5,043 | ||||||||
| General and administrative expenses | 5,176 | 4,810 | 4,677 | ||||||||
| Interest expense | 376 | 351 | 340 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 37,993 | 33,530 | 30,358 | ||||||||
| Income before income taxes | 3,371 | 3,354 | 4,458 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense | 380 | 512 | 796 | ||||||||
| Net income | $ | 2,991 | $ | 2,842 | $ | 3,662 | |||||
| Net income per share | |||||||||||
| Basic | $ | 12.93 | $ | 11.91 | $ | 14.63 | |||||
| Diluted | $ | 12.79 | $ | 11.77 | $ | 14.49 | |||||
| Combined ratio | |||||||||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 68.9 | % | 67.1 | % | 65.1 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 28.1 | 28.5 | 29.4 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 97.0 | % | 95.6 | % | 94.5 | % |
The following discussions of the Company’s net income and segment income (loss) are presented on an after-tax basis. Discussions of the components of net income and segment income (loss) are presented on a pre-tax basis, unless otherwise noted. Discussions of net income per common share are presented on a diluted basis.
Overview
Diluted net income per share of $12.79 in 2023 increased by 9% over diluted net income per share of $11.77 in 2022. Net income of $2.99 billion in 2023 increased by 5% over net income of $2.84 billion in 2022. The increase in diluted net income per share reflected the impact of share repurchases in recent periods. The increase in income before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) higher underwriting margins excluding catastrophe losses and prior year reserve development (“underlying underwriting margins”), (ii) higher net investment income and (iii) lower net realized investment losses, partially offset by (iv) higher catastrophe losses and (v) lower net favorable prior year reserve development. Catastrophe losses in 2023 and 2022 were $2.99 billion and $1.88 billion, respectively. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2023 and 2022 was $143 million and $649 million, respectively. The higher underlying underwriting margins in 2023 were driven by Personal Insurance and Business Insurance, partially offset by Bond & Specialty Insurance. Income tax expense in 2023 was lower than in 2022, primarily reflecting a one-time tax benefit of $211 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to the expiration of the statute of limitations with respect to a tax item, partially offset by a $47 million reduction in income tax expense in the first quarter of 2022 as a result of the resolution of prior year tax matters and the impact of the increase in income before income taxes.
The Company has insurance operations in Canada, the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland and throughout other parts of the world as a corporate member of Lloyd’s, as well as in Brazil and Colombia through joint ventures. Because these operations are conducted in local currencies other than the U.S. dollar, the Company is subject to changes in foreign currency exchange rates. For the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, changes in foreign currency exchange rates impacted
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reported line items in the statement of income by insignificant amounts. The impact of these changes was not material to the Company’s net income or segment income (loss) for the periods reported.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2023 were $37.76 billion, $4.00 billion or 12% higher than in 2022. In Business Insurance, earned premiums in 2023 increased by 12% over 2022. In Bond & Specialty Insurance, earned premiums in 2023 increased by 7% over 2022. In Personal Insurance, earned premiums in 2023 increased by 13% over 2022. Factors contributing to the change in earned premiums in each segment in 2023 as compared with 2022 are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
Net Investment Income
The following table sets forth information regarding the Company’s investments.
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average investments(1) | $ | 90,941 | $ | 87,191 | $ | 83,574 | |||||
| Pre-tax net investment income | 2,922 | 2,562 | 3,033 | ||||||||
| After-tax net investment income | 2,436 | $ | 2,170 | 2,541 | |||||||
| Average pre-tax yield(2) | 3.2 | % | 2.9 | % | 3.6 | % | |||||
| Average after-tax yield(2) | 2.7 | % | 2.5 | % | 3.0 | % |
___________________________________________
(1)Excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses and reflects cash, receivables for investment sales, payables on investment purchases and accrued investment income.
(2)Excludes net realized and net unrealized investment gains and losses.
Net investment income in 2023 was $2.92 billion, $360 million or 14% higher than in 2022. Net investment income from fixed maturity investments in 2023 was $2.47 billion, $359 million higher than in 2022. The increase primarily resulted from higher long-term average yields and a higher average level of fixed maturity investments. Net investment income from short-term securities in 2023 was $241 million, $168 million higher than in 2022. The increase primarily resulted from higher short-term average yields. The Company’s remaining investment portfolios had net investment income of $253 million in 2023, $166 million lower than in 2022, primarily reflecting lower real estate and private equity partnership returns. Included in other investments are private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships that are accounted for under the equity method of accounting and typically report their financial statement information to the Company one month to three months following the end of the reporting period. Accordingly, net investment income from these other investments is generally reflected in the Company’s financial statements on a quarter lag basis.
Fee Income
Fee income in 2023 was $433 million, $21 million higher than in 2022. The National Accounts market in Business Insurance is the primary source of the Company’s fee-based business and is discussed in the Business Insurance segment discussion that follows.
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Net Realized Investment Gains (Losses)
The following table sets forth information regarding the Company’s net pre-tax realized investment gains (losses).
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impairment gains (losses): | |||||||||||
| Fixed maturities | $ | (3) | $ | (26) | $ | (2) | |||||
| Real estate investments | (9) | (12) | — | ||||||||
| Net realized investment gains (losses) on equity securities still held | 16 | (61) | 78 | ||||||||
| Other net realized investment gains (losses), including from sales | (109) | (105) | 95 | ||||||||
| Total | $ | (105) | $ | (204) | $ | 171 |
Net realized investment gains on equity securities still held of $16 million in 2023 were driven by the impact of changes in fair value attributable to favorable equity markets, partially offset by a net unfavorable change in fair value on an individual security held in the Company’s portfolio. Net realized investment losses on equity securities still held of $61 million in 2022 were driven by the impact of changes in fair value attributable to unfavorable equity markets.
Other net realized investment losses in 2023 included $93 million of net realized investment losses related to fixed maturity investments, $7 million of net realized investment losses related to equity securities sold and $9 million of net realized investment losses related to other investments. Other net realized investment losses in 2022 included $72 million of net realized investment losses related to fixed maturity investments, $8 million of net realized investment losses related to equity securities sold and $25 million of net realized investment losses related to other investments.
Other Revenues
Other revenues in 2023 were $353 million, $2 million higher than 2022. Other revenues include revenues from Simply Business, installment premium charges and other policyholder service charges.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2023 were $26.22 billion, $3.36 billion or 15% higher than 2022, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) higher business volumes, (ii) higher catastrophe losses, (iii) lower net favorable prior year reserve development, (iv) higher losses in the automobile product line in Personal Insurance, (v) losses from a small number of surety accounts in Bond & Specialty Insurance and (vi) loss activity related to the disruption in the banking sector in Bond & Specialty Insurance, partially offset by (vii) a lower level of property losses in Business Insurance and (viii) lower losses in the homeowners and other product line in Personal Insurance. Catastrophes in 2023 primarily resulted from numerous severe wind and hail storms in multiple states. Catastrophes in 2022 primarily resulted from a significant winter storm that impacted most of the U.S. and parts of Canada and Hurricanes Ian and Fiona, as well as severe wind and hail storms in several regions of the United States.
Factors contributing to net favorable prior year reserve development during the years ended December 31, 2023, 2022 and 2021 are discussed in more detail in note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Significant Catastrophe Losses
The Company defines a “catastrophe” as an event:
•that is designated a catastrophe by internationally recognized organizations that track and report on insured losses resulting from catastrophic events, such as Property Claim Services (PCS) for events in the United States and Canada; and
•for which the Company’s estimates of its ultimate losses before reinsurance and taxes exceed a pre-established dollar threshold.
The Company’s threshold for disclosing catastrophes is primarily determined at the reportable segment level. If a threshold for one segment or a combination thereof is exceeded and the other segments have losses from the same event, losses from the event are identified as catastrophe losses in the segment results and for the consolidated results of the Company. Additionally,
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an aggregate threshold is applied for International business across all reportable segments. The threshold for 2023 ranged from approximately $20 million to $30 million of losses before reinsurance and taxes.
The following table presents the amount of losses recorded by the Company for significant catastrophes that occurred in 2023, 2022 and 2021, the amount of net unfavorable (favorable) prior year reserve development recognized in 2023 and 2022 for catastrophes that occurred in 2022 and 2021, and the estimate of ultimate losses for those catastrophes at December 31, 2023, 2022 and 2021. For purposes of the table, a significant catastrophe is an event for which the Company estimates its ultimate losses will be $100 million or more after reinsurance and before taxes.
| Losses Incurred / Unfavorable (Favorable) Prior Year Reserve Development for the Year Ended December 31, | Estimated Ultimate Losses at December 31, | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in millions, pre-tax and net of reinsurance)(1) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |||||||||||
| 2021 | |||||||||||||||||
| PCS Serial Number: | |||||||||||||||||
| 15 — Winter storm | (14) | (13) | 228 | 201 | 215 | 228 | |||||||||||
| 17 — Winter storm | (39) | (25) | 508 | 444 | 483 | 508 | |||||||||||
| 29 — Severe wind storms | (2) | (12) | 105 | 91 | 93 | 105 | |||||||||||
| 60 — Hurricane Ida | 26 | (81) | 417 | 362 | 336 | 417 | |||||||||||
| 76 — Tornado outbreak | (8) | (18) | 131 | 105 | 113 | 131 | |||||||||||
| 2022 | |||||||||||||||||
| PCS Serial Number: | |||||||||||||||||
| 33 — Severe wind and hail storms | 1 | 137 | n/a | 138 | 137 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 35 — Severe wind and hail storms | — | 184 | n/a | 184 | 184 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 43 — Severe wind and hail storms | (6) | 122 | n/a | 116 | 122 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 61 — Hurricane Ian | (76) | 227 | n/a | 151 | 227 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 73 — Winter storm | 158 | 512 | n/a | 670 | 512 | n/a | |||||||||||
| 2023 | |||||||||||||||||
| PCS Serial Number: | |||||||||||||||||
| 25 — Severe wind and hail storms | 153 | n/a | n/a | 153 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 32 — Severe wind and hail storms | 140 | n/a | n/a | 140 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 33 — Severe wind and hail storms | 199 | n/a | n/a | 199 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 35 — Severe wind and hail storms | 140 | n/a | n/a | 140 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 38 — Severe wind and hail storms | 110 | n/a | n/a | 110 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 42 — Severe wind and hail storms | 133 | n/a | n/a | 133 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 48 — Severe wind and hail storms | 150 | n/a | n/a | 150 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 49 — Severe wind and hail storms | 133 | n/a | n/a | 133 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 51 — Severe wind and hail storms | 265 | n/a | n/a | 265 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 63 — Severe wind and hail storms | 125 | n/a | n/a | 125 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||
| 75 — Severe wind and hail storms | 190 | n/a | n/a | 190 | n/a | n/a |
___________________________________________
n/a: not applicable.
(1) Amounts are reported pre-tax and net of recoveries under all applicable reinsurance treaties, except for the Company’s 2022 and 2021 Underlying Property Aggregate Catastrophe Excess-of-Loss Treaties. Those treaties covered the accumulation of certain property losses arising from one or multiple occurrences (both catastrophe and non-catastrophe events) for the period January 1, 2022 through and including December 31, 2022 and the period January 1, 2021 through and including December 31, 2021. As a result, the benefit from the 2022 and 2021 treaties are not included in the table as the allocation of the treaties’ benefit to each identified catastrophe changes each time there are additional events or changes in estimated losses from any covered event.
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Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2023 was $6.23 billion, $711 million or 13% higher than in 2022. The increase in 2023 was generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums. Amortization of deferred acquisition costs is discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2023 were $5.18 billion, $366 million or 8% higher than in 2022, primarily reflecting the impact of costs associated with higher business volumes. General and administrative expenses are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
Interest Expense
Interest expense in 2023 and 2022 was $376 million and $351 million, respectively.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2023 was $380 million, $132 million or 26% lower than in 2022, primarily reflecting the one-time tax benefit of $211 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to the expiration of the statute of limitations with respect to a tax item, partially offset by the $47 million reduction in income tax expense in the first quarter of 2022 as a result of the resolution of prior year tax matters and the impact of the $17 million increase in income before income taxes in 2023.
The Company’s effective tax rate was 11% and 15% in 2023 and 2022, respectively. The effective tax rate in 2023 was reduced by the impact of the one-time tax benefit discussed above, and the effective tax rate in 2022 was reduced by the impact of the resolution of prior year tax matters discussed above. The effective tax rates in both years reflected the impact of tax-exempt investment income on the calculation of the Company’s income tax provision.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 97.0% in 2023 was 1.4 points higher than the combined ratio of 95.6% in 2022. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 68.9% in 2023 was 1.8 points higher than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 67.1% in 2022. The underwriting expense ratio of 28.1% in 2023 was 0.4 points lower than the underwriting expense ratio of 28.5% in 2022.
Catastrophe losses in 2023 and 2022 accounted for 7.9 points and 5.5 points, respectively, of the combined ratio. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2023 and 2022 provided 0.4 points and 1.9 points of benefit, respectively, to the combined ratio. The combined ratio excluding prior year reserve development and catastrophe losses (“underlying combined ratio”) in 2023 was 2.5 points lower than the 2022 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) the benefit of earned pricing, (ii) a lower level of property losses in Business Insurance and (iii) lower losses in the homeowners and other product line in Personal Insurance, partially offset by (iv) losses from a small number of surety accounts in Bond & Specialty Insurance, (v) loss activity related to the disruption in the banking sector in Bond & Specialty Insurance and (vi) higher losses in the automobile product line in Personal Insurance.
The combined ratio continues to be impacted by the tort environment, including more aggressive attorney involvement in insurance claims.
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Written Premiums
Consolidated gross and net written premiums were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |||||||
| Business Insurance | $ | 22,569 | $ | 19,521 | $ | 17,829 | ||||
| Bond & Specialty Insurance | 4,187 | 4,082 | 3,725 | |||||||
| Personal Insurance | 16,216 | 14,273 | 12,690 | |||||||
| Total | $ | 42,972 | $ | 37,876 | $ | 34,244 |
| Net Written Premiums | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |||||||
| Business Insurance | $ | 20,430 | $ | 17,635 | $ | 16,092 | ||||
| Bond & Specialty Insurance | 3,842 | 3,732 | 3,376 | |||||||
| Personal Insurance | 15,929 | 14,047 | 12,491 | |||||||
| Total | $ | 40,201 | $ | 35,414 | $ | 31,959 |
Gross and net written premiums in 2023 both increased by 13% over 2022. Factors contributing to the changes in gross and net written premiums in each segment are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS BY SEGMENT
Business Insurance
Results of Business Insurance were as follows:
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 19,144 | $ | 17,095 | $ | 15,734 | |||||
| Net investment income | 2,085 | 1,864 | 2,265 | ||||||||
| Fee income | 400 | 382 | 375 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 232 | 248 | 235 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 21,861 | 19,589 | 18,609 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 18,910 | 16,522 | 15,725 | ||||||||
| Segment income before income taxes | 2,951 | 3,067 | 2,884 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense | 368 | 536 | 499 | ||||||||
| Segment income | $ | 2,583 | $ | 2,531 | $ | 2,385 | |||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 65.3 | % | 62.8 | % | 65.0 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 29.4 | 29.7 | 30.7 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 94.7 | % | 92.5 | % | 95.7 | % |
Overview
Segment income in 2023 was $2.58 billion, $52 million or 2% higher than segment income of $2.53 billion in 2022. The decrease in segment income before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) net unfavorable prior year reserve development compared to net favorable prior year reserve development in 2022 and (ii) higher catastrophe losses, partially offset by (iii) higher underlying underwriting margins and (iv) higher net investment income. Net unfavorable prior year reserve development in 2023 was $289 million. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2022 was $381 million. Catastrophe losses in 2023 and 2022 were $838 million and $654 million, respectively. The higher underlying underwriting margins primarily reflected the impacts of (i) higher business volumes, (ii) the benefit of earned pricing and (iii) a lower level of property losses, partially offset by (iv) higher general and administrative expenses. Income tax expense in 2023 was lower than
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in 2022, primarily reflecting a one-time tax benefit of $171 million in the first quarter of 2023 and the impact of the decrease in segment income before income taxes.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2023 were $19.14 billion, $2.05 billion or 12% higher than in 2022, primarily reflecting the increase in net written premiums over the preceding twelve months.
Net Investment Income
Net investment income in 2023 was $2.09 billion, $221 million or 12% higher than in 2022. Refer to the “Net Investment Income” section of the “Consolidated Results of Operations” discussion for a description of the factors contributing to the increase in the Company’s consolidated net investment income in 2023 compared with 2022. In addition, refer to note 2 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for a discussion of the Company’s net investment income allocation methodology.
Fee Income
National Accounts is the primary source of fee income due to revenue from its large deductible policies and service businesses, which include risk management, claims administration, loss control and risk management information services provided to third parties, as well as policy issuance and claims management services to workers’ compensation residual market pools. Fee income in 2023 was $400 million, $18 million or 5% higher than in 2022, primarily reflecting higher claim volume under administration associated with large deductible policies and the service business, partially offset by lower serviced premium volume from the workers’ compensation residual market pool.
Other Revenues
Other revenues in 2023 were $232 million, $16 million or 6% lower than in 2022, primarily reflecting the receipt of a surplus distribution from a state workers’ compensation fund in 2022. Other revenues also included revenues from Simply Business, installment premium charges and other policyholder service charges.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2023 were $12.70 billion, $1.79 billion or 16% higher than in 2022, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) net unfavorable prior year reserve development compared to net favorable prior year reserve development in 2022, (ii) higher business volumes, (iii) loss cost trends and (iv) higher catastrophe losses, partially offset by (v) a lower level of property losses.
Factors contributing to net prior year reserve development during the years ended December 31, 2023, 2022 and 2021 are discussed in more detail in note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2023 was $3.17 billion, $385 million or 14% higher than in 2022, generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2023 were $3.04 billion, $214 million or 8% higher than in 2022. The increase in 2023 was primarily in support of business growth.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2023 was $368 million, $168 million or 31% lower than in 2022, primarily reflecting the one-time tax benefit of $171 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to the expiration of the statute of limitations with respect to a tax item and the impact of the $116 million decrease in segment income before income taxes in 2023, partially offset by a $3 million reduction in income tax expense in the first quarter of 2022 as a result of the resolution of prior year tax matters.
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Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 94.7% in 2023 was 2.2 points higher than the combined ratio of 92.5% in 2022. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 65.3% in 2023 was 2.5 points higher than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 62.8% in 2022. The underwriting expense ratio of 29.4% in 2023 was 0.3 points lower than the underwriting expense ratio of 29.7% in 2022.
Catastrophe losses in 2023 and 2022 accounted for 4.3 points and 3.8 points, respectively, of the combined ratio. Net unfavorable prior year reserve development in 2023 accounted for 1.5 points of the combined ratio. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2022 provided 2.2 points of benefit to the combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio in 2023 was 2.0 points lower than the 2022 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) the benefit of earned pricing and (ii) a lower level of property losses.
Written Premiums
Business Insurance’s gross and net written premiums by market were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Select Accounts | $ | 3,502 | $ | 3,126 | $ | 2,860 | |||||
| Middle Market | 11,800 | 10,532 | 9,487 | ||||||||
| National Accounts | 1,665 | 1,642 | 1,517 | ||||||||
| National Property and Other | 3,630 | 2,942 | 2,701 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 20,597 | 18,242 | 16,565 | ||||||||
| International | 1,972 | 1,279 | 1,264 | ||||||||
| Total Business Insurance | $ | 22,569 | $ | 19,521 | $ | 17,829 |
| Net Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Select Accounts | $ | 3,477 | $ | 3,099 | $ | 2,833 | |||||
| Middle Market | 11,045 | 9,923 | 8,933 | ||||||||
| National Accounts | 1,135 | 1,085 | 987 | ||||||||
| National Property and Other | 3,008 | 2,467 | 2,265 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 18,665 | 16,574 | 15,018 | ||||||||
| International | 1,765 | 1,061 | 1,074 | ||||||||
| Total Business Insurance | $ | 20,430 | $ | 17,635 | $ | 16,092 |
Gross and net written premiums in 2023 both increased by 16% over 2022.
Select Accounts. Net written premiums of $3.48 billion in 2023 increased by 12% over 2022. Retention rates remained strong in 2023 and increased over 2022. Renewal premium changes in 2023 remained positive and were slightly higher than in 2022. New business premiums in 2023 increased over 2022.
Middle Market. Net written premiums of $11.05 billion in 2023 increased by 11% over 2022. Retention rates remained strong in 2023 and increased slightly over 2022. Renewal premium changes in 2023 remained positive and were higher than in 2022. New business premiums in 2023 increased over 2022.
National Accounts. Net written premiums of $1.14 billion in 2023 increased by 5% over 2022. Retention rates remained strong in 2023 and increased over 2022. Renewal premium changes in 2023 remained positive but were lower than in 2022. New business premiums in 2023 increased over 2022.
National Property and Other. Net written premiums of $3.01 billion in 2023 increased by 22% over 2022. Retention rates remained strong in 2023 and increased over 2022. Renewal premium changes in 2023 remained positive and were higher than in 2022. New business premiums in 2023 increased over 2022.
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International. Net written premiums of $1.77 billion in 2023 increased by 66% over 2022, and included the impact of the Company’s quota share reinsurance agreement with subsidiaries of Fidelis Insurance Holding Limited (Fidelis) effective January 1, 2023.
Bond & Specialty Insurance
Results of Bond & Specialty Insurance were as follows:
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 3,655 | $ | 3,418 | $ | 3,138 | |||||
| Net investment income | 328 | 258 | 247 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 25 | 20 | 23 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 4,008 | 3,696 | 3,408 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 2,839 | 2,593 | 2,575 | ||||||||
| Segment income before income taxes | 1,169 | 1,103 | 833 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense | 227 | 195 | 165 | ||||||||
| Segment income | $ | 942 | $ | 908 | $ | 668 | |||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 40.1 | % | 39.9 | % | 46.6 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 36.8 | 35.4 | 34.9 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 76.9 | % | 75.3 | % | 81.5 | % |
Overview
Segment income in 2023 was $942 million, $34 million or 4% higher than segment income of $908 million in 2022. The increase in segment income before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) higher net investment income and (ii) higher net favorable prior year reserve development, partially offset by (iii) lower underlying underwriting margins. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2023 and 2022 was $285 million and $222 million, respectively. Catastrophe losses in 2023 and 2022 were $37 million and $25 million, respectively. The lower underlying underwriting margins primarily reflected the impacts of (i) higher general and administrative expenses, (ii) losses from a small number of surety accounts and (iii) loss activity related to the disruption in the banking sector, partially offset by (iv) higher business volumes. Income tax expense in 2023 was higher than in 2022, primarily reflecting a $24 million reduction in income tax expense in the first quarter of 2022 as a result of the resolution of prior year tax matters and the impact of the increase in segment income before income taxes, partially offset by a one-time tax benefit of $9 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to the expiration of the statute of limitations with respect to a tax item.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2023 were $3.66 billion, $237 million or 7% higher than in 2022, primarily reflecting an increase in net written premiums in prior periods, including the impact of longer duration surety bonds and multi-year management liability policies.
Net Investment Income
Net investment income in 2023 was $328 million, $70 million or 27% higher than in 2022. Included in Bond & Specialty Insurance are certain legal entities whose invested assets and related net investment income are reported exclusively in this segment and not allocated among all business segments. Refer to the “Net Investment Income” section of the “Consolidated Results of Operations” discussion for a description of the factors contributing to the increase in the Company’s consolidated net investment income in 2023 as compared with 2022. In addition, refer to note 2 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for a discussion of the Company’s net investment income allocation methodology.
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Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2023 were $1.49 billion, $107 million or 8% higher than in 2022, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) higher business volumes, (ii) losses from a small number of surety accounts and (iii) loss activity related to the disruption in the banking sector, partially offset by (iv) higher net favorable prior year reserve development.
Factors contributing to net prior year reserve development during the years ended December 31, 2023, 2022 and 2021 are discussed in more detail in note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2023 was $673 million, $48 million or 8% higher than in 2022, generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2023 were $681 million, $91 million or 15% higher than in 2022. The increase primarily reflected higher employee and technology related expenses.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2023 was $227 million, $32 million or 16% higher than in 2022, primarily reflecting the $24 million reduction in income tax expense in the first quarter of 2022 as a result of the resolution of prior year tax matters and the impact of the $66 million increase in segment income before income taxes in 2023, partially offset by the one-time tax benefit of $9 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to the expiration of the statute of limitations with respect to a tax item.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 76.9% in 2023 was 1.6 points higher than the combined ratio of 75.3% in 2022. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 40.1% in 2023 was 0.2 points higher than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 39.9% in 2022. The underwriting expense ratio of 36.8% in 2023 was 1.4 points higher than the underwriting expense ratio of 35.4% in 2022.
Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2023 and 2022 provided 7.8 points and 6.5 points of benefit, respectively, to the combined ratio. Catastrophe losses in 2023 and 2022 accounted for 1.0 points and 0.7 points, respectively, of the combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio in 2023 was 2.6 points higher than the 2022 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impact of (i) a higher expense ratio, (ii) losses from a small number of surety accounts and (iii) loss activity related to the disruption in the banking sector.
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Written Premiums
Bond & Specialty Insurance’s gross and net written premiums were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Management Liability | $ | 2,391 | $ | 2,361 | $ | 2,243 | |||||
| Surety | 1,219 | 1,153 | 952 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 3,610 | 3,514 | 3,195 | ||||||||
| International | 577 | 568 | 530 | ||||||||
| Total Bond & Specialty Insurance | $ | 4,187 | $ | 4,082 | $ | 3,725 |
| Net Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Management Liability | $ | 2,156 | $ | 2,112 | $ | 1,983 | |||||
| Surety | 1,147 | 1,081 | 888 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 3,303 | 3,193 | 2,871 | ||||||||
| International | 539 | 539 | 505 | ||||||||
| Total Bond & Specialty Insurance | $ | 3,842 | $ | 3,732 | $ | 3,376 |
Gross written premiums and net written premiums in 2023 both increased by 3% over 2022.
Domestic. Net written premiums of $3.30 billion in 2023 increased by 3% over 2022. Excluding the surety line of business, for which the following are not relevant measures, retention rates remained strong in 2023 and increased over 2022. Renewal premium changes in 2023 remained positive but were lower than in 2022. New business premiums in 2023 increased over 2022.
International. Net written premiums of $539 million in 2023 were comparable with 2022.
Personal Insurance
Results of Personal Insurance were as follows:
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 14,962 | $ | 13,250 | $ | 11,983 | |||||
| Net investment income | 509 | 440 | 521 | ||||||||
| Fee income | 33 | 30 | 27 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 96 | 83 | 97 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 15,600 | 13,803 | 12,628 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 15,831 | 14,033 | 11,689 | ||||||||
| Segment income (loss) before income taxes | (231) | (230) | 939 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense (benefit) | (103) | (90) | 179 | ||||||||
| Segment income (loss) | $ | (128) | $ | (140) | $ | 760 | |||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 80.4 | % | 79.8 | % | 70.3 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 24.4 | 25.1 | 26.2 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 104.8 | % | 104.9 | % | 96.5 | % |
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Overview
Segment loss in 2023 was $128 million, compared with a segment loss of $140 million in 2022. The slight increase in segment loss before income taxes was driven by the pre-tax impacts of (i) higher catastrophe losses, largely offset by (ii) higher underlying underwriting margins, (iii) higher net favorable prior year reserve development and (iv) higher net investment income. Catastrophe losses in 2023 and 2022 were $2.12 billion and $1.20 billion, respectively. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2023 and 2022 was $147 million and $46 million, respectively. The higher underlying underwriting margins primarily reflected the impacts of (i) the benefit of earned pricing in both the automobile and homeowners and other product lines, (ii) a lower level of losses in the homeowners and other product line and (iii) higher business volumes, partially offset by (iv) higher losses in the automobile product line. The income tax benefit in 2023 was higher than in 2022, primarily reflecting a one-time tax benefit of $31 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to the expiration of the statute of limitations with respect to a tax item, partially offset by a $20 million reduction in income tax expense in the first quarter of 2022 as a result of the resolution of prior year tax matters.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2023 were $14.96 billion, $1.71 billion or 13% higher than in 2022, primarily reflecting the increase in net written premiums over the preceding twelve months.
Net Investment Income
Net investment income in 2023 was $509 million, $69 million or 16% higher than in 2022. Refer to the “Net Investment Income” section of the “Consolidated Results of Operations” discussion for a description of the factors contributing to the increase in the Company’s consolidated net investment income in 2023 as compared with 2022. In addition, refer to note 2 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for a discussion of the Company’s net investment income allocation methodology.
Other Revenues
Other revenues in all years presented primarily consisted of installment premium charges.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2023 were $12.03 billion, $1.47 billion or 14% higher than in 2022, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) higher catastrophe losses, (ii) higher business volumes and (iii) higher losses in the automobile and product line, partially offset by (iv) lower losses in the homeowners and other product line and (v) higher net favorable prior year reserve development.
Factors contributing to net favorable prior year reserve development during the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2021 are discussed in more detail in note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements. Net favorable prior year reserve development was not significant for the year ended December 31, 2022.
Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2023 was $2.38 billion, $278 million or 13% higher than in 2022, generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2023 were $1.42 billion, $55 million or 4% higher than in 2022. The increase primarily reflected higher employee and technology related expenses.
Income Tax Benefit
The income tax benefit in 2023 was $103 million, $13 million or 14% higher than in 2022, primarily reflecting the impact of the one-time tax benefit of $31 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to the expiration of the statute of limitations with respect to a tax item, partially offset by the $20 million reduction in income tax expense in the first quarter of 2022 as a result of the resolution of prior year tax matters.
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Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 104.8% in 2023 was 0.1 points lower than the combined ratio of 104.9% in 2022. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 80.4% in 2023 was 0.6 points higher than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 79.8% in 2022. The underwriting expense ratio of 24.4% in 2023 was 0.7 points lower than the underwriting expense ratio of 25.1% in 2022.
Catastrophe losses accounted for 14.1 points and 9.0 points of the combined ratio in 2023 and 2022, respectively. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2023 and 2022 provided 1.0 points and 0.3 points of benefit, respectively, to the combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio in 2023 was 4.5 points lower than the 2022 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) the benefit of earned pricing in both the automobile and homeowners and other product lines, (ii) lower losses in the homeowners and other product line and (iii) a lower expense ratio, partially offset by (iv) higher losses in the automobile product line.
Written Premiums
Personal Insurance’s gross and net written premiums were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Automobile | $ | 7,352 | $ | 6,507 | $ | 5,852 | |||||
| Homeowners and Other | 8,190 | 7,099 | 6,137 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 15,542 | 13,606 | 11,989 | ||||||||
| International | 674 | 667 | 701 | ||||||||
| Total Personal Insurance | $ | 16,216 | $ | 14,273 | $ | 12,690 |
| Net Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Automobile | $ | 7,330 | $ | 6,482 | $ | 5,827 | |||||
| Homeowners and Other | 7,949 | 6,916 | 5,980 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 15,279 | 13,398 | 11,807 | ||||||||
| International | 650 | 649 | 684 | ||||||||
| Total Personal Insurance | $ | 15,929 | $ | 14,047 | $ | 12,491 |
Gross and net written premiums in 2023 increased by 14% and 13%, respectively, over 2022.
Domestic
Automobile net written premiums of $7.33 billion in 2023 increased by 13% over 2022. Retention rates remained strong in 2023 but decreased from 2022. Renewal premium changes in 2023 remained positive and were higher than in 2022. New business premiums in 2023 decreased from 2022.
Homeowners and Other net written premiums of $7.95 billion in 2023 increased by 15% over 2022. Retention rates remained strong in 2023 but decreased slightly from 2022. Renewal premium changes in 2023 remained positive and were higher than in 2022. New business premiums in 2023 decreased from 2022.
For its Domestic business, Personal Insurance had approximately 9.1 million and 9.2 million active policies at December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
International
International net written premiums of $650 million in 2023 were comparable with 2022.
For its International business, Personal Insurance had approximately 450,000 and 449,000 active policies at December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
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Interest Expense and Other
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income (loss) | $ | (325) | $ | (301) | $ | (291) |
The income (loss) for Interest Expense and Other in 2023 and 2022 was $(325) million and $(301) million, respectively. Pre-tax interest expense in 2023 and 2022 was $376 million and $351 million, respectively. After-tax interest expense in 2023 and 2022 was $297 million and $277 million, respectively.
ASBESTOS CLAIMS AND LITIGATION
The Company believes that the property and casualty insurance industry has suffered from court decisions and other trends that have expanded insurance coverage for asbestos claims far beyond the original intent of insurers and policyholders. The Company has received and continues to receive a significant number of asbestos claims. Factors underlying these claim filings include continued intensive advertising by lawyers seeking asbestos claimants and the focus by plaintiffs on defendants, such as manufacturers of talcum powder, who were not traditionally primary targets of asbestos litigation. The focus on these defendants is primarily the result of the number of traditional asbestos defendants who have sought bankruptcy protection in previous years. The bankruptcy of many traditional defendants has also caused increased settlement demands against those policyholders who are not in bankruptcy but remain in the tort system. Currently, in many jurisdictions, those who allege very serious injury and who can present credible medical evidence of their injuries are receiving priority trial settings in the courts, while those who have not shown any credible disease manifestation are having their hearing dates delayed or placed on an inactive docket. Prioritizing claims involving credible evidence of injuries, along with the focus on defendants who were not traditionally primary targets of asbestos litigation, contributes to the claims and claim adjustment expense payment patterns experienced by the Company. The Company’s asbestos-related claims and claim adjustment expense experience also has been impacted by the unavailability of other insurance sources potentially available to policyholders, whether through exhaustion of policy limits or through the insolvency of other participating insurers.
The Company continues to be involved in disputes, including litigation, with a number of policyholders, some of whom are in bankruptcy, over coverage for asbestos-related claims. Many coverage disputes with policyholders are only resolved through settlement agreements. Because many policyholders make exaggerated demands, it is difficult to predict the outcome of settlement negotiations. Settlements involving bankrupt policyholders may include extensive releases which are favorable to the Company, but which could result in settlements for larger amounts than originally anticipated. Although the Company has seen a reduction in the overall risk associated with these disputes, it remains difficult to predict the ultimate cost of these claims. As in the past, the Company will continue to pursue settlement opportunities.
In addition to claims against policyholders, proceedings have been launched directly against insurers, including the Company, by individuals challenging insurers’ conduct with respect to the handling of past asbestos claims and by individuals seeking damages arising from alleged asbestos-related bodily injuries. It is possible that other direct actions against insurers, including the Company, could be filed in the future. It is difficult to predict the outcome of these proceedings, including whether the plaintiffs would be able to sustain these actions against insurers based on novel legal theories of liability. The Company believes it has meritorious defenses to any such claims and has received favorable rulings in certain jurisdictions.
Because each policyholder presents different liability and coverage issues, the Company generally reviews the exposure presented by each policyholder with open claims at least annually. Among the factors the Company may consider in the course of this review are: available insurance coverage, including the role of any umbrella or excess insurance the Company has issued to the policyholder; limits and deductibles; an analysis of the policyholder’s potential liability; the jurisdictions involved; past and anticipated future claim activity and loss development on pending claims; past settlement values of similar claims; allocated claim adjustment expense; the potential role of other insurance; the role, if any, of non-asbestos claims or potential non-asbestos claims in any resolution process; and applicable coverage defenses or determinations, if any, including the determination as to whether or not an asbestos claim is a products/completed operation claim subject to an aggregate limit and the available coverage, if any, for that claim.
The Company’s net asbestos reserves at December 31, 2023 and 2022 were $1.38 billion and $1.31 billion, respectively, and include case reserves, IBNR reserves and reserves for the costs of defending asbestos-related coverage litigation. IBNR reserves include amounts for new claims and adverse development on existing policyholders, as well as reserves for claims from policyholders reporting asbestos claims for the first time and for policyholders for which there is, or may be, litigation. Asbestos reserves also include amounts related to certain policyholders with whom the Company has entered into permanent settlement agreements, which are based on the expected payout for each policyholder under the applicable agreement.
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Additionally, a portion of the asbestos reserves relates to assumed reinsurance contracts primarily consisting of reinsurance of excess coverage, including various pool participations.
The Company conducts an annual review of domestic policyholders with open asbestos claims. Policyholders are identified for this review based upon, among other factors: a combination of past payments and current case reserves in excess of a specified threshold (currently $100,000), perceived level of exposure, number of reported claims, products/completed operations and potential “non-product” exposures, size of policyholder and geographic distribution of products or services sold by the policyholder.
In the third quarter of 2023, the Company completed its annual in-depth asbestos claim review, including a review of policyholders with open claims and litigation cases for potential product and “non-product” liability. The number of policyholders with open asbestos claims was relatively flat compared to 2022, while net asbestos payments were slightly lower than 2022. Payments on behalf of these policyholders continue to be influenced by an increase in severity for certain policyholders and a high level of litigation activity in a limited number of jurisdictions where individuals alleging serious asbestos-related injury, primarily mesothelioma, continue to target defendants who were not traditionally primary targets of asbestos litigation.
The Company’s quarterly asbestos reserve reviews include an analysis of exposure and claim payment patterns by policyholder, as well as recent settlements, policyholder bankruptcies, judicial rulings and legislative actions. The Company also analyzes developing payment patterns among policyholders and the assumed reinsurance component of reserves, as well as projected reinsurance billings and recoveries. In addition, the Company reviews its historical gross and net loss and expense paid experience, year-by-year, to assess any emerging trends, fluctuations, or characteristics suggested by the aggregate paid activity. Conventional actuarial methods are not utilized to establish asbestos reserves, and the Company’s evaluations have not resulted in a reliable method to determine a meaningful average asbestos defense or indemnity payment.
The completion of these reviews and analyses in 2023, 2022 and 2021 resulted in $284 million, $212 million and $225 million increases, respectively, to the Company’s net asbestos reserves. In each year, the reserve increases were primarily driven by increases in the Company’s estimate of projected settlement and defense costs related to a broad number of policyholders. The increase in the estimate of projected settlement and defense costs primarily resulted from payment trends that continue to be higher than previously anticipated due to the continued high level of mesothelioma claim filings and the impact of the current litigation environment surrounding those claims discussed above. The 2023 charge also included an additional increase to strengthen the Company’s carried reserve position relative to the range of reasonable estimates. Over the past decade, the property and casualty insurance industry, including the Company, has experienced net unfavorable prior year reserve development with regard to asbestos reserves, but the Company believes that over that period there has been a reduction in the volatility associated with the Company’s overall asbestos exposure as the overall asbestos environment has evolved from one dominated by exposure to significant litigation risks, particularly coverage disputes relating to policyholders in bankruptcy who were asserting that their claims were not subject to the aggregate limits contained in their policies, to an environment primarily driven by a frequency of litigation related to individuals with mesothelioma. The Company’s overall view of the current underlying asbestos environment is essentially unchanged from recent periods, and there remains a high degree of uncertainty with respect to future exposure to asbestos claims.
Net asbestos paid loss and loss expenses in 2023, 2022 and 2021 were $212 million, $245 million and $221 million, respectively. Approximately 1%, 2% and 9% of total net paid losses in 2023, 2022 and 2021, respectively, related to policyholders with whom the Company entered into settlement agreements that limit those policyholders’ ability to present future claims to the Company.
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The following table displays activity for asbestos losses and loss expenses and reserves:
| (at and for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beginning reserves: | |||||||||||
| Gross | $ | 1,674 | $ | 1,687 | $ | 1,668 | |||||
| Ceded | (369) | (346) | (330) | ||||||||
| Net | 1,305 | 1,341 | 1,338 | ||||||||
| Incurred losses and loss expenses: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 374 | 287 | 287 | ||||||||
| Ceded | (90) | (75) | (62) | ||||||||
| Net | 284 | 212 | 225 | ||||||||
| Paid loss and loss expenses: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 281 | 298 | 267 | ||||||||
| Ceded | (69) | (53) | (46) | ||||||||
| Net | 212 | 245 | 221 | ||||||||
| Foreign exchange and other: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 1 | (2) | (1) | ||||||||
| Ceded | — | (1) | — | ||||||||
| Net | 1 | (3) | (1) | ||||||||
| Ending reserves: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 1,768 | 1,674 | 1,687 | ||||||||
| Ceded | (390) | (369) | (346) | ||||||||
| Net | $ | 1,378 | $ | 1,305 | $ | 1,341 |
ENVIRONMENTAL CLAIMS AND LITIGATION
The Company has received and continues to receive claims from policyholders who allege that they are liable for injury or damage arising out of the alleged storage, emissions or disposal of toxic substances, frequently under policies issued prior to the mid-1980s. These claims are mainly brought pursuant to various state or federal statutes that require a liable party to undertake or pay for environmental remediation. For example, the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) enables private parties as well as federal and state governments to take action with respect to releases and threatened releases of hazardous substances. This federal statute permits the recovery of response costs from some liable parties and may require liable parties to undertake their own remedial action. Liability under these statutes may be joint and several with other responsible parties. The Company has also been, and continues to be, involved in litigation involving insurance coverage issues pertaining to environmental claims. The Company believes that some court decisions pertaining to environmental claims have interpreted the insurance coverage to be broader than the original intent of the insurers and policyholders. For more information regarding environmental claims and litigation, see note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
In 2023, 2022 and 2021, the Company increased its net environmental reserves by $93 million, $132 million and $89 million, respectively. Net environmental paid loss and loss expenses in 2023, 2022 and 2021 were $82 million, $82 million and $75 million, respectively. Net environmental reserves were $382 million, $371 million and $321 million at December 31, 2023, 2022 and 2021, respectively.
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADEQUACY OF ASBESTOS AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESERVES
As a result of the processes and procedures discussed above, management believes that the reserves carried for asbestos and environmental claims are appropriately established based upon known facts, current law and management’s judgment. However, the uncertainties surrounding the final resolution of these claims continue, and it is difficult to determine the ultimate exposure for asbestos and environmental claims and related litigation. As a result, these reserves are subject to revision as new information becomes available and as claims develop. The continuing uncertainties include, without limitation:
•the risks and lack of predictability inherent in complex litigation;
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•a further increase in the cost to resolve, and/or the number of, asbestos and environmental claims beyond that which is anticipated;
•the emergence of a greater number of asbestos claims than anticipated as a result of extended life expectancies resulting from medical advances and lifestyle improvements;
•the role of any umbrella or excess policies we have issued;
•the resolution or adjudication of disputes concerning coverage for asbestos and environmental claims in a manner inconsistent with our previous assessment of these disputes;
•the number and outcome of direct actions against us;
•future developments pertaining to our ability to recover reinsurance for asbestos and environmental claims;
•any impact on asbestos defendants we insure due to the bankruptcy of other asbestos defendants;
•the unavailability of other insurance sources potentially available to policyholders, whether through exhaustion of policy limits or through the insolvency of other participating insurers; and
•uncertainties arising from the insolvency or bankruptcy of policyholders.
Changes in the legal, regulatory and legislative environment may impact the future resolution of asbestos and environmental claims and result in adverse loss reserve development. The emergence of a greater number of asbestos or environmental claims beyond that which is anticipated may result in adverse loss reserve development. Changes in applicable legislation and future court and regulatory decisions and interpretations, including the outcome of legal challenges to legislative and/or judicial reforms establishing medical criteria for the pursuit of asbestos claims, could affect the settlement of asbestos and environmental claims. It is also difficult to predict the ultimate outcome of complex coverage disputes until settlement negotiations near completion and significant legal questions are resolved or, failing settlement, until the dispute is adjudicated. This is particularly the case with policyholders in bankruptcy where negotiations often involve a large number of claimants and other parties and require court approval to be effective. As part of its continuing analysis of asbestos and environmental reserves, the Company continues to study the implications of these and other developments.
Because of the uncertainties set forth above, additional liabilities may arise for amounts in excess of the Company’s current reserves. In addition, the Company’s estimate of claims and claim adjustment expenses may change. These additional liabilities or increases in estimates, or a range of either, cannot now be reasonably estimated and could result in income statement charges that could be material to the Company’s operating results in future periods.
INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
The Company’s invested assets at December 31, 2023 were $88.81 billion, of which 93% was invested in fixed maturity and short-term investments, 1% in equity securities, 1% in real estate investments and 5% in other investments. Because the primary purpose of the investment portfolio is to fund future claims payments, the Company employs a thoughtful investment philosophy that focuses on appropriate risk-adjusted returns. A significant majority of funds available for investment are deployed in a widely diversified portfolio of high quality, liquid, taxable U.S. government, tax-exempt and taxable U.S. municipal and taxable corporate and U.S. agency mortgage-backed bonds.
The carrying value of the Company’s fixed maturity portfolio at December 31, 2023 was $77.81 billion. The Company closely monitors the duration of its fixed maturity investments, and investment purchases and sales are executed with the objective of having adequate funds available to satisfy the Company’s insurance and debt obligations. The weighted average credit quality of the Company’s fixed maturity portfolio, both including and excluding U.S. Treasury securities, was “Aa2” at both December 31, 2023 and 2022. Below investment grade securities represented 1.3% of the total fixed maturity investment portfolio at both December 31, 2023 and 2022. The weighted average effective duration of fixed maturities and short-term securities was 4.1 (4.4 excluding short-term securities) at December 31, 2023 and 4.6 (4.8 excluding short-term securities) at December 31, 2022.
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The carrying values of investments in fixed maturities classified as available for sale at December 31, 2023 and 2022 were as follows:
| 2023 | 2022 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (at December 31, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | ||||||||
| U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government and government agencies and authorities | $ | 6,368 | Aaa/Aa1 | $ | 5,438 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||
| Obligations of U.S. states, municipalities and political subdivisions: | ||||||||||||
| Local general obligation | 17,199 | Aaa/Aa1 | 17,823 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Revenue | 9,184 | Aaa/Aa1 | 10,198 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| State general obligation | 1,157 | Aaa/Aa1 | 1,019 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Pre-refunded | 966 | Aaa/Aa1 | 2,339 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Total obligations of U.S. states, municipalities and political subdivisions | 28,506 | 31,379 | ||||||||||
| Debt securities issued by foreign governments | 1,006 | Aaa/Aa1 | 994 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Mortgage-backed securities, collateralized mortgage obligations and pass-through securities | 7,818 | Aaa/Aa1 | 1,991 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Corporate and all other bonds: | ||||||||||||
| Financial: | ||||||||||||
| Bank | 4,658 | A1 | 4,505 | A1 | ||||||||
| Insurance | 2,084 | Aa2 | 1,628 | Aa3 | ||||||||
| Finance/leasing | 63 | Ba2 | 47 | Ba2 | ||||||||
| Brokerage and asset management | 139 | A1 | 136 | A1 | ||||||||
| Total financial | 6,944 | 6,316 | ||||||||||
| Industrial | 19,037 | A3 | 17,237 | A3 | ||||||||
| Public utility | 4,338 | A2 | 4,064 | A2 | ||||||||
| Canadian municipal securities | 1,604 | Aa1 | 1,523 | Aa1 | ||||||||
| Sovereign corporate securities (2) | 584 | Aaa | 559 | Aaa | ||||||||
| Commercial mortgage-backed securities and project loans (3) | 1,038 | Aaa | 1,136 | Aaa | ||||||||
| Asset-backed and other | 564 | Aa1 | 523 | Aa1 | ||||||||
| Total corporate and all other bonds | 34,109 | 31,358 | ||||||||||
| Total fixed maturities | $ | 77,807 | Aa2 | $ | 71,160 | Aa2 |
___________________________________________
(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist.
(2)Sovereign corporate securities include corporate securities that are backed by a government and include sovereign banks and securities issued under the Federal Ship Financing Programs.
(3)Included in commercial mortgage-backed securities and project loans at December 31, 2023 and 2022 were $116 million and $131 million of securities guaranteed by the U.S. government, respectively.
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The following table sets forth the Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio rated using external ratings agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist:
| (at December 31, 2023, in millions) | Carrying Value | Percent of Total Carrying Value | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quality Rating: | |||||||
| Aaa | $ | 36,612 | 47.0 | % | |||
| Aa | 15,797 | 20.3 | |||||
| A | 14,715 | 18.9 | |||||
| Baa | 9,701 | 12.5 | |||||
| Total investment grade | 76,825 | 98.7 | |||||
| Below investment grade | 982 | 1.3 | |||||
| Total fixed maturities | $ | 77,807 | 100.0 | % |
Obligations of U.S. States, Municipalities and Political Subdivisions
The Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio at December 31, 2023 and 2022 included $28.51 billion and $31.38 billion, respectively, of securities which are obligations of U.S. states, municipalities and political subdivisions (collectively referred to as the municipal bond portfolio). The municipal bond portfolio is diversified across the United States, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico and includes general obligation and revenue bonds issued by states, cities, counties, school districts and similar issuers. Included in the municipal bond portfolio at December 31, 2023 and 2022 were $966 million and $2.34 billion, respectively, of pre-refunded bonds, which are bonds for which U.S. states or municipalities have established irrevocable trusts, almost exclusively comprised of U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government and government agencies and authorities. These trusts were created to fund the payment of principal and interest due under the bonds. The irrevocable trusts are verified as to their sufficiency by an independent verification agent of the underwriter, issuer or trustee. All of the Company’s holdings of securities issued by Puerto Rico and related entities have either been pre-refunded and therefore are defeased by U.S. Treasury securities or have FHA guarantees subject to federal appropriation.
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The following table shows the geographic distribution of the $27.54 billion of municipal bonds at December 31, 2023 that were not pre-refunded:
| (at December 31, 2023, in millions) | State General Obligation | Local General Obligation | Revenue | Total Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality(1) | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State: | ||||||||||||||||||
| Texas | $ | 71 | $ | 2,903 | $ | 1,256 | $ | 4,230 | Aaa | |||||||||
| California | — | 1,899 | 341 | 2,240 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Virginia | 43 | 957 | 795 | 1,795 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| North Carolina | 176 | 743 | 412 | 1,331 | Aaa | |||||||||||||
| Washington | 104 | 936 | 281 | 1,321 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Minnesota | 158 | 926 | 159 | 1,243 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Wisconsin | 162 | 858 | 84 | 1,104 | Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Colorado | — | 664 | 336 | 1,000 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Maryland | 30 | 817 | 123 | 970 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Massachusetts | — | 197 | 721 | 918 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Tennessee | 5 | 849 | 64 | 918 | Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Florida | 51 | 154 | 545 | 750 | Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Georgia | 154 | 519 | 55 | 728 | Aaa | |||||||||||||
| All others (2) | 203 | 4,777 | 4,012 | 8,992 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 1,157 | $ | 17,199 | $ | 9,184 | $ | 27,540 | Aaa/Aa1 |
___________________________________________
(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist. Ratings shown are the higher of the rating of the underlying issuer or the insurer in the case of securities enhanced by third-party insurance for the payment of principal and interest in the event of issuer default.
(2)No other single state accounted for 2.5% or more of the total non-pre-refunded municipal bonds.
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The following table displays the funding sources for the $9.18 billion of municipal bonds identified as revenue bonds in the foregoing table at December 31, 2023:
| (at December 31, 2023, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality(1) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source: | ||||||
| Water | $ | 2,686 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||
| Higher education | 2,377 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Sewer | 964 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Power utilities | 500 | Aa1 | ||||
| Special tax | 475 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Transit | 244 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Highway tolls | 224 | Aa2 | ||||
| Fuel sales | 199 | Aa1 | ||||
| Health care | 176 | Aa2 | ||||
| Housing | 70 | Aaa | ||||
| Lease | 31 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Natural gas | 7 | Aa2 | ||||
| Lottery | 3 | Aa1 | ||||
| Industrial | 2 | A2 | ||||
| Other revenue sources | 1,226 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Total | $ | 9,184 | Aaa/Aa1 |
___________________________________________
(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist. Ratings shown are the higher of the rating of the underlying issuer or the insurer in the case of securities enhanced by third-party insurance for the payment of principal and interest in the event of issuer default.
The Company bases its investment decision on the underlying credit characteristics of the municipal security. The weighted average credit rating of the municipal bond portfolio was “Aaa/Aa1” at December 31, 2023.
Debt Securities Issued by Foreign Governments
The following table shows the geographic distribution of the Company’s long-term fixed maturity investments in debt securities issued by foreign governments at December 31, 2023:
| (at December 31, 2023, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign Government: | ||||||
| Canada | $ | 797 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||
| United Kingdom | 185 | Aa3 | ||||
| All others (2,3) | 24 | Aa1 | ||||
| Total | $ | 1,006 | Aaa/Aa1 |
___________________________________________
(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist.
(2)The Company does not have direct exposure to sovereign debt issued by the Republic of Ireland, Italy, Greece, Portugal or Spain.
(3) No other country accounted for 2.5% or more of total debt securities issued by foreign governments.
The following table shows the Company’s Eurozone exposure at December 31, 2023 to all debt securities issued by foreign governments, financial companies, sovereign corporations (including sovereign banks) whose securities are backed by the respective country’s government and all other corporate securities (comprised of industrial corporations and utility companies) which could be affected if economic conditions deteriorated due to a prolonged recession:
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| Corporate Securities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt Securities Issued by Foreign Governments | Financial | Sovereign Corporates | All Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| (at December 31, 2023, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Eurozone Periphery | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Spain | $ | — | — | $ | 51 | Aa3 | $ | — | — | $ | 3 | Baa3 | ||||||||||||||
| Ireland | — | — | — | — | — | — | 158 | Baa2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Italy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Greece | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Portugal | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Subtotal | — | 51 | — | 161 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Eurozone Non-Periphery | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Germany | 16 | Aaa | — | — | 477 | Aaa/Aa1 | 592 | A3 | ||||||||||||||||||
| France | 149 | Aa1 | — | — | — | — | 321 | A2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Netherlands | — | — | 131 | A1 | 104 | Aaa | 219 | A2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Finland | — | — | 55 | Aa3 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Belgium | — | — | — | — | — | — | 121 | Baa1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Austria | — | — | — | — | 14 | Aa2 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Subtotal | 165 | 186 | 595 | 1,253 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 165 | $ | 237 | $ | 595 | $ | 1,414 |
___________________________________________
(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist. The table includes $544 million of short-term securities which have the highest ratings issued by external rating agencies for short-term issuances. For purposes of this table, the short-term securities, which are rated “A-1+” and/or “P-1,” are included as “Aaa” rated securities.
In addition to fixed maturities noted in the foregoing table, the Company has exposure totaling $289 million to private equity limited partnerships and real estate partnerships (both of which are included in other investments in the Company’s consolidated balance sheet) whose primary investing focus is across Europe. The Company has unfunded commitments totaling $190 million to these partnerships.
Mortgage-Backed Securities, Collateralized Mortgage Obligations and Pass-Through Securities
The Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio at December 31, 2023 and 2022 included $7.82 billion and $1.99 billion, respectively, of residential mortgage-backed securities, including pass-through-securities and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), all of which are subject to prepayment risk (either shortening or lengthening of duration). While prepayment risk for securities and its effect on income cannot be fully controlled, particularly when interest rates move dramatically, the Company’s investment strategy generally favors securities that reduce this risk within expected interest rate ranges. The Company makes investments in residential CMOs that are either guaranteed by GNMA, FNMA or FHLMC, or if not guaranteed, are senior or super-senior positions within their respective securitizations. Both guaranteed and non-guaranteed residential CMOs allocate the distribution of payments from the underlying mortgages among different classes of bondholders. In addition, non-guaranteed residential CMOs provide structures that allocate the impact of credit losses to different classes of bondholders. Senior and super-senior CMOs are protected, to varying degrees, from credit losses as those losses are initially allocated to subordinated bondholders. The Company’s investment strategy is to purchase CMO tranches that are expected to offer the most favorable return given the Company’s assessment of associated risks. The Company does not purchase residual interests in CMOs. For more information regarding the Company’s investments in residential mortgage-backed securities, see note 3 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities and Project Loans
At December 31, 2023 and 2022, the Company held commercial mortgage-backed securities (including FHA project loans) of $1.04 billion and $1.14 billion, respectively. For more information regarding the Company’s investments in commercial mortgage-backed securities, see note 3 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
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Equity Securities, Real Estate and Short-Term Investments
See note 1 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for further information about these invested asset classes.
Other Investments
The Company also invests in private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships, and joint ventures. These asset classes have historically provided a higher return than investments in fixed maturities but are subject to more volatility. The Company also enters into certain derivative financial instruments from time to time that are reported as part of other investments. At December 31, 2023 and 2022, the carrying value of the Company’s other investments was $4.30 billion and $4.07 billion, respectively. The Company has unfunded commitments to private equity limited partnerships, real estate partnerships and others in which it invests. These commitments totaled $2.05 billion and $1.80 billion at December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. It is the opinion of the Company’s management that the Company has adequate liquidity to meet these commitments.
Securities Lending
The Company has, from time to time, engaged in securities lending activities from which it generates net investment income by lending certain of its investments to other institutions for short periods of time. At December 31, 2023 and 2022, the Company had $421 million and $445 million, respectively, of securities on loan, respectively, as part of a tri-party lending agreement. The average monthly balance of securities on loan during 2023 and 2022 was $400 million and $347 million, respectively. Borrowers of these securities provide collateral equal to at least 102% of the market value of the loaned securities plus accrued interest. The Company did not incur any investment losses in its securities lending program for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022.
Lloyd’s Trust Deposits
The Company meets its capital requirements to support its underwriting at Lloyd’s using a combination of the share capital and retained earnings of the Company’s subsidiaries participating in Lloyd’s, trust deposits and uncollateralized letters of credit. Securities with a fair value of approximately $31 million and $28 million held by a wholly-owned subsidiary at December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively, and $85 million and $58 million held by TRV at December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively, were pledged into Lloyd’s trust accounts to provide a portion of the Lloyd’s capital requirements. For more information regarding the Company’s utilization of uncollateralized letters of credit, see “Liquidity and Capital Resources” herein.
Net Unrealized Investment Gains (Losses)
The net unrealized investment gains (losses) that were included in shareholders’ equity were as follows:
| (at December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed maturities | $ | (3,969) | $ | (6,217) | $ | 3,062 | |||||
| Other | (1) | (3) | (2) | ||||||||
| Unrealized investment gains (losses) before tax | (3,970) | (6,220) | 3,060 | ||||||||
| Tax expense (benefit) | (841) | (1,322) | 645 | ||||||||
| Net unrealized investment gains (losses) included in shareholders’ equity at end of year | $ | (3,129) | $ | (4,898) | $ | 2,415 |
Net unrealized investment losses included in shareholders’ equity were $3.13 billion at December 31, 2023 compared with $4.90 billion at December 31, 2022. At December 31, 2023, the Company had $726 million fixed maturity investments reported at fair value for which fair value was less than 80% of amortized cost. At December 31, 2022, the Company had $2.18 billion fixed maturity investments reported at fair value for which fair value was less than 80% of amortized cost. These year-over-year changes were driven by changes in interest rates. Since the Company generally holds its high-quality fixed maturity investments to maturity, these net unrealized losses are considered temporary in nature and are not expected to result in significant realized losses. In addition, given the temporary nature of net unrealized losses combined with the Company’s strong operating cash flows, which include income received on investments and the proceeds received upon maturity of the investments, the net unrealized investment loss is not expected to meaningfully impact the Company’s assessment of capital adequacy or liquidity. Equity securities, which include common and non-redeemable preferred stocks, are reported at fair value with changes in fair value recognized in net income.
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For fixed maturity investments where fair value is less than the carrying value and the Company did not reach a decision to impair, the Company continues to have the intent and ability to hold such investments to a projected recovery in value, which may not be until maturity.
At both December 31, 2023 and 2022, below investment grade securities comprised 1.3% of the fair value of the Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio. Included in below investment grade securities at December 31, 2023 were securities in an unrealized loss position that, in the aggregate, had an amortized cost of $695 million and a fair value of $643 million, resulting in a net pre-tax unrealized investment loss of $52 million. These securities in an unrealized loss position represented less than 1% of both the amortized cost and fair value of the fixed maturity portfolio at December 31, 2023 and accounted for 1.2% of the total gross pre-tax unrealized investment loss in the fixed maturity portfolio at December 31, 2023.
Impairment Charges
Impairment charges included in net realized investment gains (losses) in the consolidated statement of income were $12 million, $38 million and $2 million for the years ended December 31, 2023, 2022 and 2021, respectively. See note 3 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for further information.
Purchases and Sales of Investment Securities
Purchases and sales of investments are based on cash requirements, the characteristics of the insurance liabilities and current market conditions. The Company identifies investments to be sold to achieve its primary investment goals of assuring the Company’s ability to meet policyholder obligations as well as to optimize investment returns, given these obligations.
During the year ended December 31, 2023, the Company incurred pre-tax realized losses of $119 million on the sale of fixed maturity investments having a fair value of $2.23 billion.
CATASTROPHE MODELING
The Company uses various analyses and methods, including proprietary and third-party modeling processes, to make underwriting and reinsurance decisions designed to manage its exposure to catastrophic events. There are no industry-standard methodologies or assumptions for projecting catastrophe exposure. Accordingly, catastrophe estimates provided by different insurers may not be comparable.
The Company actively monitors and evaluates changes in third-party models and, when necessary, calibrates the catastrophe risk model estimates delivered via its own proprietary modeling processes. The Company considers historical loss experience, recent events, underwriting practices, market share analyses, external scientific analysis and various other factors, including non-modeled losses, to refine its proprietary view of catastrophe risk. These proprietary models are updated regularly as new information and techniques emerge.
Based on the proprietary and third-party models utilized by the Company, the tables below set forth, as of December 31, 2023, the probabilities that estimated losses, comprising claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses (but excluding unallocated claim adjustment expenses), from a single event occurring in a one-year timeframe will equal or exceed the indicated loss amounts (expressed in dollars, net of tax, and as a percentage of the Company’s common equity). For example, on the basis described below the tables, the Company estimates that there is a one percent chance that the Company’s loss from a single U.S. and Canadian hurricane in a one-year timeframe would equal or exceed $2.1 billion, or 8% of the Company’s common equity at December 31, 2023.
| Dollars (in billions) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likelihood of Exceedance (1) | Single U.S. and Canadian Hurricane | Single U.S. and Canadian Earthquake | |||||
| 2.0% (1-in-50) | $ | 1.8 | $ | 0.7 | |||
| 1.0% (1-in-100) | $ | 2.1 | $ | 1.1 | |||
| 0.4% (1-in-250) | $ | 2.7 | $ | 2.1 | |||
| 0.1% (1-in-1,000) | $ | 6.9 | $ | 3.1 |
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| Percentage of Common Equity (2) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likelihood of Exceedance | Single U.S. and Canadian Hurricane | Single U.S. and Canadian Earthquake | ||||
| 2.0% (1-in-50) | 6 | % | 2 | % | ||
| 1.0% (1-in-100) | 8 | % | 4 | % | ||
| 0.4% (1-in-250) | 10 | % | 7 | % | ||
| 0.1% (1-in-1,000) | 25 | % | 11 | % |
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(1) An event that has, for example, a 2% likelihood of exceedance is sometimes described as a “1-in-50 year event.” As noted above, however, the probabilities in the table represent the likelihood of losses from a single event equaling or exceeding the indicated threshold loss amount in a one-year timeframe, not over a multi-year timeframe. Also, because the probabilities relate to a single event, the probabilities do not address the likelihood of more than one event occurring in a particular period, and, therefore, the amounts do not address potential aggregate catastrophe losses occurring in a one-year timeframe.
(2) The percentage of common equity is calculated by dividing (a) indicated loss amounts in dollars by (b) total common equity excluding net unrealized investment gains and losses, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity. Net unrealized investment gains and losses can be significantly impacted by both discretionary and other economic factors and are not necessarily indicative of operating trends. Accordingly, the Company’s management uses the percentage of common equity calculated on this basis as a metric to evaluate the potential impact of a single hurricane or single earthquake on the Company’s financial position for purposes of making underwriting and reinsurance decisions.
The loss amounts included in the tables above are based on the Company’s in-force portfolio of direct exposures and do not include assumed business. Additionally, the amounts are as of December 31, 2023, reflect the reinsurance program in place at January 1, 2024, are net of reinsurance, after-tax, and exclude unallocated claim adjustment expenses, which historically have been less than 10% of loss estimates. For further information regarding the Company’s reinsurance, see “Item 1—Business—Reinsurance.” The amounts for hurricanes reflect U.S. and Canadian exposures and include property exposures, property residual market exposures and an adjustment for certain non-property exposures. The hurricane loss amounts are based on the Company’s catastrophe risk model estimates and include losses from the hurricane hazards of wind and storm surge. The amounts for earthquakes reflect U.S. and Canadian property and workers’ compensation exposures. These loss amounts include the effects of exposure growth, inflation and modeling updates based on recent trends and scientific analysis. The Company does not believe that the inclusion of hurricane or earthquake losses arising from other geographical areas or other exposures would materially change the estimated loss amounts.
Catastrophe modeling relies upon inputs based on experience, science, engineering and history. These inputs reflect a significant amount of judgment and are subject to changes which may result in volatility in the modeled output. Catastrophe modeling output may also fail to account for risks that are outside the range of normal probability or are otherwise unforeseeable. Catastrophe modeling assumptions include, among others, the portion of purchased reinsurance that is collectible after a catastrophic event, which may prove to be materially incorrect. Consequently, catastrophe modeling estimates are subject to significant uncertainty. In the tables above, the uncertainty associated with the estimated threshold loss amounts increases significantly as the likelihood of exceedance decreases. In other words, in the case of a relatively more remote event (e.g., 1-in-1,000), the estimated threshold loss amount is relatively less reliable. Actual losses from an event could materially exceed the indicated threshold loss amount. In addition, more than one such event could occur in any period.
Moreover, the Company is exposed to the risk of material losses from other than property and workers’ compensation coverages arising out of hurricanes and earthquakes, and it is exposed to catastrophe losses from perils other than hurricanes and earthquakes, such as tornadoes and other windstorms, hail, wildfires, severe winter weather, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, solar flares and other naturally-occurring events, as well as acts of terrorism and cyber events.
In addition, compared to models for hurricanes, models for earthquakes are less reliable due to there being a more limited number of significant historical events to analyze, while models for tornadoes, hail storms, wildfires and winter storms are newer and may be less reliable due to the highly random geographic nature and size of these events. Accordingly, these models may be less accurate in predicting risks and estimating losses. Further, changes in climate conditions could cause our underlying modeling data to be less predictive, thus limiting our ability to effectively evaluate and manage catastrophe risk. As compared to natural catastrophes, modeling for man-made catastrophes, such as terrorism and cyber events, is even more difficult and less reliable, and for some events (both natural and man-made), models are either in early stages of development and, therefore, not widely adopted, or are not available.
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For more information about the Company’s exposure to catastrophe losses, see “Item 1A—Risk Factors—High levels of catastrophe losses, including as a result of factors such as increased concentrations of insured exposures in catastrophe-prone areas and changing climate conditions, could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, our financial position and/or liquidity, and could adversely impact our ratings, our ability to raise capital and the availability and cost of reinsurance” and “Item 1A—Risk Factors—We may be adversely affected if our pricing and capital models provide materially different indications than actual results.”
CHANGING CLIMATE CONDITIONS
Severe weather events over the last two decades underscore the unpredictability of climate trends. For example, the frequency and/or severity of hurricane, tornado, hail and wildfire events in the United States have been more volatile during this time period. The insurance industry has experienced increased catastrophe losses due to a number of potential causal factors, including, in addition to weather/climate variability, aging infrastructure, more people living in, and moving to, high-risk areas, population growth in areas with weaker enforcement of building codes, urban expansion, an increase in the number of amenities included in, and average size of, a home and increased inflation, including as a result of post-event demand surge. We believe that changing climate conditions have also likely added to the frequency and severity of natural disasters and created additional uncertainty as to future trends and exposures. Climate studies by government agencies, academic institutions, catastrophe modeling organizations and other groups indicate that an increase in frequency and/or intensity of hurricanes, heavy precipitation events and associated river, urban and flash flooding, sea level rise, droughts, heat waves and wildfires has occurred, and can be expected into the future. Understanding the potential impacts of changing climate conditions is important to the Company’s business. Changing climate conditions are expected to evolve over decades. Importantly, because most of its policies renew annually, the Company is able to respond to these changes over time through adjustments to its underwriting strategy, product pricing and related policy terms and conditions, as appropriate. As an example, in recent years the Company has focused on enhancing the strategic management of its catastrophe exposure, adding experts in data science, meteorology, including climate and flood science, wind and structural engineering and geophysics, among others, to its catastrophe management organization. The Company has also established dedicated teams for each catastrophe peril, with the goal of developing industry-leading scientific and underwriting expertise. This expertise has been incorporated into the Company’s product development, risk selection, pricing, capital allocation and claim response.
The Company discusses how changing climate conditions may present other issues for its business under “Item 1A—Risk Factors.” and “Outlook.” For example, among other things:
•Increasingly unpredictable and severe weather conditions could result in increased frequency and severity of claims under policies issued by the Company. See “Item 1A—Risk Factors—High levels of catastrophe losses, including as a result of factors such as increased concentrations of insured exposures in catastrophe-prone areas and changing climate conditions, could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, our financial position and/or liquidity, and could adversely impact our ratings, our ability to raise capital and the availability and cost of reinsurance” and “—Outlook—Underwriting Gain/Loss.” Moreover, the Company’s catastrophe models may be less reliable due to the increased unpredictability in frequency and severity of severe weather events, emerging trends in climate conditions and regulatory responses to catastrophe events not being appropriately reflected in the models, in addition to the other factors mentioned above. Accordingly, the Company may be subject to increased losses from catastrophes and other weather-related events.
•Changing climate conditions could also impact the creditworthiness of issuers of securities in which the Company invests. For example, water supply adequacy could impact the creditworthiness of bond issuers with significant assets or business activities in the Southwestern United States; more frequent and/or severe hurricanes could impact the creditworthiness of issuers with significant assets or business activities in the Southeastern United States, among other areas; and increased regulation adopted in response to potential changes in climate conditions could impact the creditworthiness of issuers affected by such regulations. In addition, as issuers of securities in which the Company invests become increasingly focused on mitigating the potential environmental impact of their operations, the costs associated with such initiatives could affect the business models and realized returns of such issuers. See “Item 1A—Risk Factors—Our investment portfolio is subject to credit and interest rate risk, and may suffer reduced or low returns or material realized or unrealized losses.”
•Increased regulation adopted in response to potential changes in climate conditions may impact the Company and its customers, including state insurance regulations that could impact the Company’s ability to manage property exposures in areas vulnerable to significant climate driven losses. For example, state laws have been passed that restrict a carrier’s ability to cancel or non-renew certain policies within or adjacent to declared state of emergency zip codes and mandate discounts for risk mitigation practices that may not be effective. If the Company is unable to
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implement risk-based pricing, modify policy terms or reduce exposures to the extent necessary to address rising losses related to catastrophes and smaller scale weather events (should those increased losses occur), its business may be adversely affected. See “Item 1—Business—Regulation—U.S. State and Federal Regulation—Regulatory and Legislative Responses to Catastrophes.” In addition, climate change regulation could increase the Company’s customers’ costs of doing business. For example, insureds faced with carbon management regulatory requirements may have less available capital for investment in loss prevention and safety features which may, over time, increase loss exposures. Increased regulation may also result in reduced economic activity, which would decrease the amount of insurable assets and businesses, and increased claim costs, to the extent such regulations require that damaged homes or businesses be rebuilt according to more expensive specifications.
•The full range of potential liability exposures related to changing climate conditions continues to evolve. For example, from time to time third parties sue our policyholders alleging that they caused or contributed to changing climate conditions. Through the Company’s Enterprise Casualty Emerging Risk Committee and its Committee on Climate, Energy and the Environment, the Company works with its business units and corporate groups, as appropriate, to identify and try to assess climate change-related liability issues, which are continually evolving and often hard to fully evaluate. The Company regularly reviews emerging issues, including changing climate conditions, to consider potential changes to its modeling and the use of such modeling, as well as to help determine the need for new underwriting strategies, coverage modifications or new products. See “Item 1A—Risk Factors—The effects of emerging claim and coverage issues on our business are uncertain, and court decisions or legislative changes that take place after we issue our policies can result in an unexpected increase in the number of claims and have a material adverse impact on our results of operations and/or our financial position.”
REINSURANCE RECOVERABLES
The Company reinsures a portion of the risks it underwrites in order to control its exposure to losses. For additional discussion regarding the Company’s reinsurance coverage, see “Part I—Item 1—Business—Reinsurance.”
The following table summarizes the composition of the Company’s reinsurance recoverables:
| (at December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross reinsurance recoverables on paid and unpaid claims and claim adjustment expenses | $ | 3,895 | $ | 3,792 | |||
| Gross structured settlements | 2,707 | 2,802 | |||||
| Mandatory pools and associations | 1,659 | 1,601 | |||||
| Gross reinsurance recoverables | 8,261 | 8,195 | |||||
| Allowance for estimated uncollectible reinsurance | (118) | (132) | |||||
| Net reinsurance recoverables | $ | 8,143 | $ | 8,063 |
Net reinsurance recoverables at December 31, 2023 increased by $80 million over December 31, 2022, primarily reflecting the impacts of catastrophe losses in 2023, partially offset by cash collections in 2023.
The following table presents the Company’s top five reinsurer groups by reinsurance recoverable at December 31, 2023 (in millions). Also included is the A.M. Best rating of the Company’s predominant reinsurer from each such reinsurer group at February 15, 2024:
| Reinsurer Group | Reinsurance Recoverable | A.M. Best Rating of Group’s Predominant Reinsurer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Re Group | $ | 634 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | ||||
| Berkshire Hathaway | 472 | A++ | highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Munich Re Group | 349 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Axa Group | 162 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Hannover Group | 126 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings |
At December 31, 2023, the Company held $987 million of collateral in the form of letters of credit, funds and trust agreements held to fully or partially collateralize certain reinsurance recoverables.
Included in net reinsurance recoverables are amounts related to structured settlements, which are annuities purchased from various life insurance companies to settle certain personal physical injury claims, of which workers’ compensation claims comprise a significant portion. In cases where the Company did not receive a release from the claimant, the amount due from
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the life insurance company related to the structured settlement is included in the Company’s consolidated balance sheet as a reinsurance recoverable and the related claim cost is included in the liability for claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, as the Company retains the contingent liability to the claimant. If it is expected that the life insurance company is not able to pay, the Company would recognize an impairment of the related reinsurance recoverable if, and to the extent, the purchased annuities are not covered by state guaranty associations. In the event that the life insurance company fails to make the required annuity payments, the Company would be required to make such payments. The following table presents the Company’s top five groups by structured settlements at December 31, 2023 (in millions). Also included is the A.M. Best rating of the Company’s predominant insurer from each such insurer group at February 15, 2024:
| Group | Structured Settlements | A.M. Best Rating of Group’s Predominant Insurer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity & Guaranty Life Group | $ | 677 | A | third highest of 16 ratings | ||||
| Genworth Financial Group | 325 | B- | eighth highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| John Hancock Group | 229 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Symetra Financial Corporation | 209 | A | third highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Brighthouse Financial, Inc. | 190 | A | third highest of 16 ratings |
The Company considers the ratings and related outlook assigned to reinsurance companies and life insurance companies by various independent ratings agencies in assessing the adequacy of its allowance for uncollectible amounts.
OUTLOOK
The following discussion provides outlook information for certain key drivers of the Company’s results of operations and capital position.
Premiums. The Company’s earned premiums are a function of net written premium volume. Net written premiums comprise both renewal business and new business and are recognized as earned premium over the term of the underlying policies. When business renews, the amount of net written premiums associated with that business may increase or decrease (renewal premium change) as a result of increases or decreases in rate and/or insured exposures, which the Company considers as a measure of units of exposure (such as the number and value of vehicles or properties insured). Net written premiums from both renewal and new business, and therefore earned premiums, are impacted by competitive market conditions as well as general economic conditions, which, particularly in the case of Business Insurance, affect audit premium adjustments, policy endorsements and mid-term cancellations. Net written premiums may also be impacted by the structure of reinsurance programs and related costs, as well as changes in foreign currency exchange rates.
Overall, the Company expects that retention levels (the amount of expiring premium that renews, before the impact of renewal premium changes) will remain strong by historical standards during 2024.
Property and casualty insurance market conditions are expected to remain competitive during 2024 for new business. In each of the Company’s business segments, new business generally has less of an impact on underwriting profitability than renewal business, given the volume of new business relative to renewal business. However, in periods of meaningful increases in new business, despite its positive impact on underwriting gains over time, the impact of higher new business levels may negatively impact the combined ratio for a period of time. In periods of meaningful decreases in new business, despite its negative impact on underwriting gains over time, the impact of lower new business levels may positively impact the combined ratio for a period of time.
Effective January 1, 2024, the Company renewed a quota share reinsurance agreement with subsidiaries of Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limited (Fidelis) pursuant to which the Company assumes 20% of the gross written premiums of Fidelis during 2024, subject to a loss ratio cap. The Company’s portion of premiums from Fidelis is reported as part of the International results of Business Insurance. The Company also has a minority investment in Fidelis.
Underwriting Gain/Loss. The Company’s underwriting gain/loss can be significantly impacted by catastrophe losses and net favorable or unfavorable prior year reserve development, as well as underlying underwriting margins. Underlying underwriting margins can be impacted by a number of factors, including variability in non-catastrophe weather, large loss and other loss activity; changes in current period loss estimates resulting from prior period loss development; changes in loss cost trends; changes in business mix; changes in reinsurance coverages and/or costs; premium adjustments; and variability in expenses and assessments.
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Catastrophe losses and non-catastrophe weather-related losses are inherently unpredictable from period to period. The Company’s results of operations could be adversely impacted if significant catastrophe and non-catastrophe weather-related losses were to occur.
On average for the ten-year period ended December 31, 2023, the Company experienced approximately 40% of its annual catastrophe losses during the second quarter, primarily arising out of severe wind and hail storms, including tornadoes. Hurricanes, wildfires and winter storms tend to happen at other times of the year and can also have a material impact on the Company’s results of operations. Catastrophe losses incurred in a particular quarter in any given year may differ materially from historical experience. In addition, most of the Company’s reinsurance programs renew on January 1 or July 1 of each year, and, therefore, any changes to the availability, cost or coverage terms of such programs will be effective after such dates.
Over much of the past decade, the Company’s results have included significant amounts of net favorable prior year reserve development driven by better than expected loss experience. However, given the inherent uncertainty in estimating claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, loss experience could develop such that the Company recognizes in future periods higher or lower levels of favorable prior year reserve development, no favorable prior year reserve development or unfavorable prior year reserve development. In addition, the ongoing review of prior year claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, or other changes in current period circumstances, may result in the Company revising current year loss estimates upward or downward in future periods of the current year.
It is possible that changes in economic conditions, the supply chain, the labor market and geopolitical tensions, as well as steps taken by federal, state and/or local governments and the Federal Reserve could lead to higher or lower inflation than the Company anticipated, which could in turn lead to an increase or decrease in the Company’s loss costs and the need to strengthen or reduce claims and claim adjustment expense reserves. These impacts of inflation on loss costs and claims and claim adjustment expense reserves could be more pronounced for those lines of business that require a relatively longer period of time to finalize and settle claims for a given accident year and, accordingly, are relatively more inflation sensitive. Labor shortages and higher costs of vehicles, parts and raw materials are adversely impacting severity in our personal and commercial businesses and may continue to do so in future quarters. For a further discussion, see “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors—If actual claims exceed our claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, or if changes in the estimated level of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves are necessary, including as a result of, among other things, changes in the legal/tort, regulatory and economic environments in which the Company operates, our financial results could be materially and adversely affected.”
The Company’s results of operations may be impacted by a number of other factors, including an economic slowdown, a recession, financial market volatility, a shutdown of the U.S. government, disruption in the banking sector, supply chain disruptions, monetary and fiscal policy measures, heightened geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates, the political and regulatory environment, changes to the U.S. Federal budget and potential changes in tax laws.
Investment Portfolio. The Company expects to continue to focus its investment strategy on maintaining a high-quality investment portfolio and a relatively short average effective duration. The weighted average effective duration of fixed maturities and short-term securities was 4.1 (4.4 excluding short-term securities) at December 31, 2023. From time to time, the Company enters into short positions in U.S. Treasury futures contracts to manage the duration of its fixed maturity portfolio. At December 31, 2023, the Company had no open U.S. Treasury futures contracts. The Company regularly evaluates its investment alternatives and mix. Currently, the majority of the Company’s investments are comprised of a widely diversified portfolio of high-quality, liquid, taxable U.S. government, tax-exempt and taxable U.S. municipal, taxable corporate and U.S. agency mortgage-backed bonds.
The Company also invests much smaller amounts in equity securities, real estate and private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships, and joint ventures. These investment classes have the potential for higher returns but also the potential for greater volatility and higher degrees of risk, including less stable rates of return and less liquidity.
Approximately 33% of the fixed maturity portfolio is expected to mature over the next three years (including the early redemption of bonds, assuming interest rates (including credit spreads) do not rise significantly by applicable call dates). As a result, the overall yield on and composition of its portfolio could be meaningfully impacted by the types of investments available for reinvestment with the proceeds of maturing bonds.
Net investment income is a material contributor to the Company’s results of operations. Based on the Company’s current expectations for the impact of expected higher reinvestment yields on the Company’s fixed income investments and slightly higher levels of fixed income investments, the Company expects that after-tax net investment income from that portfolio will be approximately $630 million in the first quarter of 2024, increasing to an estimated $675 million by the fourth quarter of 2024. This expectation could be impacted by the direction of interest rates and disruptions in global financial markets. Included in
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other investments are private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships that are accounted for under the equity method of accounting and typically report their financial statement information to the Company one month to three months following the end of the reporting period. Accordingly, net investment income or loss from these other investments is generally reflected in the Company’s financial statements on a quarter lag basis. The Company’s net investment income in future periods from its non-fixed income investment portfolio will be impacted, positively or negatively, by the performance of global financial markets.
The Company had net pre-tax realized investment losses of $105 million in 2023. Changes in global financial markets could result in net realized investment gains or losses in the Company’s investment portfolio.
The Company had a net pre-tax unrealized investment loss of $3.97 billion ($3.13 billion after-tax) in its fixed maturity investment portfolio at December 31, 2023, compared to $6.22 billion ($4.90 billion after-tax) at December 31, 2022. The net unrealized investment loss is primarily due to the impact of movements in interest rates. The decrease in the net unrealized investment loss in 2023 was due to a change in interest rates. While the Company does not attempt to predict future interest rate movements, a rising interest rate environment reduces the market value of fixed maturity investments and, therefore, reduces shareholders’ equity, and a declining interest rate environment has the opposite effects. The net unrealized loss discussed above is considered temporary in nature as it is not due to credit impairments, there is no impact on expected contractual cash flows from fixed maturities, and the Company generally holds its fixed maturity investments to maturity. In addition, given the temporary nature of net unrealized losses combined with the Company’s strong operating cash flows (which include income received on investments and the proceeds received upon maturity of the investments), the net unrealized investment loss is not expected to meaningfully impact the Company’s assessment of capital adequacy or liquidity. Equity securities, which include common and non-redeemable preferred stocks, are reported at fair value with changes in fair value recognized in net income.
Additionally, disruptions in global financial markets could also impact the market value of the Company’s investment portfolio. The Company’s investment portfolio has benefited from certain tax exemptions (primarily those related to interest from municipal bonds) and certain other tax laws, including, but not limited to, those governing dividends-received deductions and tax credits (such as foreign tax credits). Changes in these laws could adversely impact the value of the Company’s investment portfolio. See “Our businesses are heavily regulated by the states and countries in which we conduct business, including licensing, market conduct and financial supervision, and changes in regulation, including changes in tax regulation, may reduce our profitability and limit our growth” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors.”
For further discussion of the Company’s investment portfolio, see “Investment Portfolio.” For a discussion of the risks to the Company’s business during or following a financial market disruption and risks to the Company’s investment portfolio, see the risk factors entitled “During or following a period of financial market disruption or an economic downturn, our business could be materially and adversely affected” and “Our investment portfolio is subject to credit and interest rate risk, and may suffer reduced or low returns or material realized or unrealized losses” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors.” For a discussion of the risks to the Company’s investments from foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations, see the risk factor entitled “We are subject to additional risks associated with our business outside the United States” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors” and see “Part II—Item 7A—Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk—Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk.”
Capital Position. The Company believes it has a strong capital position and, as part of its ongoing efforts to create shareholder value, expects to continue to return capital not needed to support its business operations to its shareholders, subject to the considerations described below. The Company expects that, generally over time, the combination of dividends to common shareholders and common share repurchases will likely not exceed net income. The Company also expects that to the extent that it continues to grow premium volumes, the level of capital to support the Company’s financial strength ratings will also increase, and accordingly, the amount of capital returned to shareholders relative to earnings would be somewhat less than it otherwise would have been absent the growth in premium volumes. The timing and actual number of shares to be repurchased in the future will depend on a variety of additional factors, including the Company’s financial position, earnings, share price, catastrophe losses, maintaining capital levels appropriate for the Company’s business operations, changes in levels of written premiums, funding of the Company’s qualified pension plan, capital requirements of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, legal requirements, regulatory constraints, other investment opportunities (including mergers and acquisitions and related financings), market conditions, changes in tax laws (including the Inflation Reduction Act) and other factors. For information regarding the Company’s common share repurchases in 2023, see “Liquidity and Capital Resources” herein.
As a result of the Company’s business outside of the United States, primarily in Canada, the United Kingdom (including Lloyd’s), the Republic of Ireland and in Brazil through a joint venture, the Company’s capital is also subject to the effects of changes in foreign currency exchange rates. Strengthening of the U.S. dollar in comparison to other currencies could result in a reduction in shareholders’ equity, while a weakening of the U.S. dollar in comparison to other currencies could result in an
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increase in shareholders’ equity. For additional discussion of the Company’s foreign exchange market risk exposure, see “Part II—Item 7A—Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.”
Many of the statements in this “Outlook” section and in “Liquidity and Capital Resources” are forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that are often difficult to predict and beyond the Company’s control. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Further, such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this report and the Company undertakes no obligation to update them. See “—Forward Looking Statements.” For a discussion of potential risks and uncertainties that could impact the Company’s results of operations or financial position, see “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors” and “Critical Accounting Estimates.”
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Liquidity is a measure of a company’s ability to generate sufficient cash flows to meet the cash requirements of its business operations and to satisfy general corporate purposes when needed.
Operating Company Liquidity. The liquidity requirements of the Company’s insurance subsidiaries are met primarily by funds generated from premiums, fees, income received on investments and investment maturities. Cash provided from these sources is used primarily for claims and claim adjustment expense payments and operating expenses. The insurance subsidiaries’ liquidity requirements can be impacted by, among other factors, the timing and amount of catastrophe claims, which are inherently unpredictable, as well as the timing and amount of reinsurance recoveries, which may be affected by reinsurer solvency and reinsurance coverage disputes. Additionally, the variability of asbestos-related claim payments, as well as the volatility of potential judgments and settlements arising out of litigation, may also result in increased liquidity requirements. While an environment of higher interest rates during 2022 and 2023 resulted in significant net unrealized investment losses, the net unrealized loss is considered temporary in nature as it is not due to credit impairments, there is no impact on expected contractual cash flows from fixed maturities, and the Company generally holds its high-quality fixed maturity investments to maturity. In addition, given the temporary nature of net unrealized losses combined with the Company’s strong operating cash flows (which include income received on investments and the proceeds received upon maturity of the investments), the net unrealized investment loss is not expected to meaningfully impact the Company’s assessment of capital adequacy or liquidity. It is the opinion of the Company’s management that the insurance subsidiaries’ future liquidity needs will be adequately met from all of the sources described above. Subject to the restrictions imposed by states in which the Company’s insurance subsidiaries are domiciled, the Company’s principal insurance subsidiaries pay dividends to their respective parent companies, which, in turn, pay dividends to the corporate holding (parent) company (TRV). For further information regarding restrictions on dividends paid by the Company’s insurance subsidiaries, see “Part I—Item 1—Business—Regulation.”
Holding Company Liquidity. TRV’s liquidity requirements primarily include shareholder dividends, debt servicing, common share repurchases and, from time to time, contributions to its qualified domestic pension plan. At December 31, 2023, TRV held total cash and short-term invested assets in the United States aggregating $1.54 billion and having a weighted average maturity of 24 days. TRV has established a holding company liquidity target equal to its estimated annual pre-tax interest expense and common shareholder dividends (currently approximately $1.30 billion). TRV’s holding company liquidity of $1.54 billion at December 31, 2023 exceeded this target, and it is the opinion of the Company’s management that these assets are sufficient to meet TRV’s current liquidity requirements.
TRV is not dependent on dividends or other forms of repatriation from its foreign operations to support its liquidity needs. The undistributed earnings of the Company’s foreign operations are intended to be permanently reinvested in those operations, and such earnings were not material to the Company’s financial position or liquidity at December 31, 2023.
TRV has a shelf registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission that expires on June 8, 2025 which permits it to issue securities from time to time. TRV also has a $1.0 billion line of credit facility with a syndicate of financial institutions that expires on June 15, 2027. At December 31, 2023, the Company had $100 million of commercial paper outstanding. TRV is not reliant on its commercial paper program to meet its operating cash flow needs. The Company has no senior notes or junior subordinated debentures maturing until April 2026, at which time $200 million of senior notes will mature.
The Company utilized uncollateralized letters of credit issued by major banks with an aggregate limit of $260 million to provide a portion of the capital needed to support its obligations at Lloyd’s at December 31, 2023. If uncollateralized letters of credit are not available at a reasonable price or at all in the future, the Company can collateralize these letters of credit or may have to seek alternative means of supporting its obligations at Lloyd’s, which could include utilizing holding company funds on hand.
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Operating Activities
Net cash provided by operating activities were $7.71 billion and $6.47 billion in 2023 and 2022, respectively. The increase in cash flows in 2023 primarily reflected the impacts of higher levels of cash received for premiums and lower levels of payments for income taxes, partially offset by higher levels of payments for claims and claim adjustment expenses, commissions and general and administrative expenses. The increase in cash paid for claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2023 was impacted by business growth and higher loss costs. Additionally, cash used for claims and claim adjustment expenses continue to be impacted by reduced judicial system and claims settlement activity related to a backlog in the court system. The increase in cash received for premiums in 2023 compared to the prior year was impacted by business growth including the impact of positive renewal premium changes.
Investing Activities
Net cash used in investing activities was $6.82 billion and $3.73 billion in 2023 and 2022, respectively. The Company’s consolidated total investments at December 31, 2023 increased by $8.36 billion, or 10% over December 31, 2022, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) net cash flows provided by operating activities and (ii) lower net unrealized investment losses on investments due to the impact of a change in interest rates during 2023, partially offset by (iii) net cash used in financing activities.
The Company’s investment portfolio is managed to support its insurance operations; accordingly, the portfolio is positioned to meet obligations to policyholders. As such, the primary goals of the Company’s asset-liability management process are to satisfy the insurance liabilities and maintain sufficient liquidity to cover fluctuations in projected liability cash flows. Generally, the expected principal and interest payments produced by the Company’s fixed maturity portfolio adequately fund the estimated runoff of the Company’s insurance reserves. Although this is not an exact cash flow match in each period, the substantial amount by which the market value of the fixed maturity portfolio exceeds the value of the net insurance liabilities, as well as the positive cash flow from newly sold policies and the large amount of high quality liquid bonds, contributes to the Company’s ability to fund claim payments without having to sell illiquid assets or access credit facilities.
Financing Activities
Net cash used in financing activities were $1.05 billion and $2.67 billion in 2023 and 2022, respectively. The totals in both 2023 and 2022 reflected common share repurchases and dividends paid to shareholders, partially offset by the net proceeds from employee stock option exercises. The total in 2023 also included net proceeds from the issuance of debt. Common share repurchases in 2023 and 2022 were $1.02 billion and $2.06 billion, respectively.
Debt Transactions.
2023. On May 25, 2023, the Company issued $750 million aggregate principal amount of 5.45% senior notes that will mature on May 25, 2053. The net proceeds of the issuance, after the deduction of the underwriting discount and expenses payable by the Company, totaled approximately $738 million. Interest on the senior notes is payable semi-annually in arrears on May 25 and November 25. Prior to November 25, 2052, the senior notes may be redeemed, in whole or in part, at the Company’s option, at any time or from time to time, at a redemption price equal to the greater of (a) 100% of the principal amount of any senior notes to be redeemed or (b) the sum of the present values of the remaining scheduled payments of principal and interest to but excluding November 25, 2052 on any senior notes to be redeemed (exclusive of interest accrued to the date of redemption) discounted to the date of redemption on a semi-annual basis (assuming a 360-day year consisting of twelve 30-day months) at the then current Treasury rate (as defined in the senior notes), plus 25 basis points. On or after November 25, 2052, the senior notes may be redeemed, in whole or in part, at the Company’s option, at any time or from time to time, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of any senior notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the redemption date.
Dividends. Dividends paid to shareholders were $908 million and $875 million in 2023 and 2022, respectively. The declaration and payment of future dividends to holders of the Company’s common stock will be at the discretion of the Company’s Board of Directors and will depend upon many factors, including the Company’s financial position, earnings, capital requirements of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, legal requirements, regulatory constraints and other factors as the Board of Directors deems relevant. Dividends will be paid by the Company only if declared by its Board of Directors out of funds legally available, subject to any other restrictions that may be applicable to the Company. On January 19, 2024, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.00 per share, payable March 29, 2024 to shareholders of record on March 8, 2024.
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Share Repurchases. The Company’s Board of Directors has approved common share repurchase authorizations under which repurchases may be made from time to time in the open market, pursuant to pre-set trading plans meeting the requirements of Rule 10b5-1 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, in private transactions or otherwise. The authorizations do not have a stated expiration date. The Company expects that, generally over time, the combination of dividends to common shareholders and common share repurchases will likely not exceed net income. The Company also expects that to the extent that it continues to grow premium volumes, the amount of capital returned to shareholders relative to earnings would be somewhat less than it otherwise would have been absent the growth in premium volumes. The timing and actual number of shares to be repurchased in the future will depend on a variety of factors, including the Company’s financial position, earnings, share price, catastrophe losses, maintaining capital levels appropriate for the Company’s business operations, changes in levels of written premiums, funding of the Company’s qualified pension plan, capital requirements of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, legal requirements, regulatory constraints, other investment opportunities (including mergers and acquisitions and related financings), market conditions, changes in tax laws (including the Inflation Reduction Act) and other factors. During 2023, the Company repurchased 5.4 million shares under its share repurchase authorizations, for a total of $965 million. The average cost per share repurchased was $179.95. Common share repurchases of $965 million in 2023 were lower than the total of $2.00 billion in 2022 due to elevated catastrophe losses in 2023 and to increase capital to support business growth. On April 19, 2023, the Board of Directors approved a share repurchase authorization that added $5.0 billion of repurchase capacity to the $1.60 billion of capacity remaining at that date. At December 31, 2023, the Company had $6.04 billion of capacity remaining under its share repurchase authorizations. The cost of treasury stock acquired pursuant to common share repurchases includes the 1% excise tax imposed as part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.
From the inception of the first authorization on May 2, 2006 through December 31, 2023, the Company has repurchased a cumulative total of 543.9 million shares for a total of $39.96 billion, or an average of $73.48 per share.
In 2023 and 2022, the Company acquired 0.3 million and 0.4 million shares of common stock, respectively, from employees as treasury stock primarily to cover payroll withholding taxes in connection with the vesting of restricted stock unit awards and performance share awards, and shares used by employees to cover the price of certain stock options that were exercised.
Capital Resources
Capital resources reflect the overall financial strength of the Company and its ability to borrow funds at competitive rates and raise new capital to meet its needs. The following table summarizes the components of the Company’s capital structure at December 31, 2023 and 2022:
| (at December 31, in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt: | |||||||
| Short-term | $ | 100 | $ | 100 | |||
| Long-term | 8,004 | 7,254 | |||||
| Net unamortized fair value adjustments and debt issuance costs | (73) | (62) | |||||
| Total debt | 8,031 | 7,292 | |||||
| Shareholders’ equity: | |||||||
| Common stock and retained earnings, less treasury stock | 29,392 | 28,005 | |||||
| Accumulated other comprehensive loss | (4,471) | (6,445) | |||||
| Total shareholders’ equity | 24,921 | 21,560 | |||||
| Total capitalization | $ | 32,952 | $ | 28,852 |
Total capitalization at December 31, 2023 was $32.95 billion, $4.10 billion higher than at December 31, 2022, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) net income of $2.99 billion, (ii) other comprehensive income of $1.97 billion, primarily reflecting a decrease in net unrealized losses on investments due to a change in interest rates during 2023 and (iii) proceeds from the exercise of employee share options of $141 million, partially offset by (iv) common share repurchases totaling $965 million under the Company’s share repurchase authorizations and (v) shareholder dividends of $915 million.
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The following table provides a reconciliation of total capitalization presented in the foregoing table to total capitalization excluding net unrealized losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity:
| (at December 31, dollars in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total capitalization | $ | 32,952 | $ | 28,852 | |||
| Less: net unrealized losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity | (3,129) | (4,898) | |||||
| Total capitalization excluding net unrealized losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity | $ | 36,081 | $ | 33,750 | |||
| Debt-to-total capital ratio | 24.4 | % | 25.3 | % | |||
| Debt-to-total capital ratio excluding net unrealized losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity | 22.3 | % | 21.6 | % |
The debt-to-total capital ratio excluding net unrealized gains (losses) on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity, is calculated by dividing (a) debt by (b) total capitalization excluding net unrealized gains and losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity. Net unrealized gains and losses on investments can be significantly impacted by both interest rate movements and other economic factors. Accordingly, in the opinion of the Company’s management, the debt-to-total capital ratio calculated on this basis provides another useful metric for investors to understand the Company’s financial leverage position. The Company’s ratio of debt-to-total capital excluding after-tax net unrealized investment losses included in shareholders’ equity of 22.3% at December 31, 2023 was within the Company’s target range of 15% to 25%.
Credit Agreement. The Company is a party to a five-year, $1.0 billion revolving credit agreement with a syndicate of financial institutions that expires on June 15, 2027. Terms of the credit agreement are discussed in more detail in note 9 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Shelf Registration. The Company has filed a universal shelf registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission that expires on June 8, 2025 for the potential offering and sale of securities. The Company may offer these securities from time to time at prices and on other terms to be determined at the time of offering.
Share Repurchase Authorizations. At December 31, 2023, the Company had $6.04 billion of capacity remaining under its share repurchase authorizations approved by the Board of Directors.
Cash Requirements from Contractual and Other Obligations
The following table summarizes, as of December 31, 2023, the Company’s future payments under material contractual obligations and estimated claims and claim-related payments. The table includes only liabilities at December 31, 2023 that are expected to be settled in cash.
The table below includes the amount and estimated future timing of claims and claim-related payments. The amounts do not represent the exact liability, but instead represent estimates, generally utilizing actuarial projection techniques, at a given accounting date. These estimates include expectations of what the ultimate settlement and administration of claims will cost based on the Company’s assessment of facts and circumstances known, review of historical settlement patterns, estimates of trends in claims severity, frequency, legal theories of liability and other factors. Variables in the reserve estimation process can be affected by both internal and external events, such as changes in claims handling procedures, economic inflation or deflation, legal trends and legislative changes. Many of these items are not directly quantifiable, particularly on a prospective basis. Additionally, there may be significant reporting lags between the occurrence of the policyholder event and the time it is actually reported to the insurer. The future cash flows related to the items contained in the table below required estimation of both amount (including severity considerations) and timing. Amount and timing are frequently estimated separately. An estimation of both amount and timing of future cash flows related to claims and claim-related payments has unavoidable estimation uncertainty.
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The material cash requirements from contractual and other obligations at December 31, 2023 were as follows:
| Payments Due by Period (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt | |||||||||||||||||||
| Senior notes | $ | 7,750 | $ | — | $ | 200 | $ | — | $ | 7,550 | |||||||||
| Junior subordinated debentures | 254 | — | — | 125 | 129 | ||||||||||||||
| Total debt principal | 8,004 | — | 200 | 125 | 7,679 | ||||||||||||||
| Interest | 7,429 | 389 | 770 | 738 | 5,532 | ||||||||||||||
| Total long-term debt obligations (1) | 15,433 | 389 | 970 | 863 | 13,211 | ||||||||||||||
| Real estate and other operating leases (2) | 303 | 88 | 123 | 70 | 22 | ||||||||||||||
| Information systems-related commitments (3) | 946 | 450 | 416 | 80 | — | ||||||||||||||
| Unfunded investment commitments (4) | 2,052 | 761 | 498 | 555 | 238 | ||||||||||||||
| Estimated claims and claim-related payments | |||||||||||||||||||
| Claims and claim adjustment expenses (5) | 60,060 | 14,285 | 14,864 | 7,627 | 23,284 | ||||||||||||||
| Claims from large deductible policies (6) | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| Total estimated claims and claim-related payments | 60,060 | 14,285 | 14,864 | 7,627 | 23,284 | ||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 78,794 | $ | 15,973 | $ | 16,871 | $ | 9,195 | $ | 36,755 |
________________________________________
(1)See note 9 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for a further discussion of outstanding indebtedness. Because the amounts reported in the foregoing table include principal and interest, the total long-term debt obligations will not agree with the amounts reported in note 9.
(2)Represents agreements entered into in the ordinary course of business to lease office space, equipment and furniture.
(3)Includes agreements with vendors to purchase system software (including software as a service), software maintenance services and technology-related costs.
(4)Represents estimated timing for fulfilling unfunded commitments for private equity limited partnerships, real estate partnerships and other investments.
(5)The amounts in “Claims and claim adjustment expenses” in the table above represent the estimated timing of future payments for both reported and unreported claims incurred and related claim adjustment expenses, gross of reinsurance recoverables, excluding structured settlements expected to be paid by annuity companies.
The Company has entered into reinsurance agreements to manage its exposure to losses and protect its capital as described in note 6 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
In order to qualify for reinsurance accounting, a reinsurance agreement must indemnify the insurer from insurance risk, i.e., the agreement must transfer amount and timing risk. Since the timing and amount of cash inflows from such reinsurance agreements are directly related to the underlying payment of claims and claim adjustment expenses by the insurer, reinsurance recoverables are recognized in a manner consistent with the liabilities (the estimated liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses) relating to the underlying reinsured contracts. The presence of any feature that can delay timely reimbursement of claims by a reinsurer results in the reinsurance contract being accounted for as a deposit rather than reinsurance. The assumptions used in estimating the amount and timing of the reinsurance recoverables are consistent with those used in estimating the amount and timing of the related liabilities.
The estimated future cash inflows from the Company’s reinsurance contracts that qualify for reinsurance accounting are as follows:
| (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance recoverables | $ | 5,208 | $ | 933 | $ | 1,010 | $ | 637 | $ | 2,628 |
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The Company manages its business and evaluates its liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses on a net of reinsurance basis. The estimated cash flows on a net of reinsurance basis are as follows:
| (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claims and claim adjustment expenses, net | $ | 54,852 | $ | 13,352 | $ | 13,854 | $ | 6,990 | $ | 20,656 |
For business underwritten by non-U.S. operations, future cash flows related to reported and unreported claims incurred and related claim adjustment expenses were translated at the spot rate on December 31, 2023.
The amounts reported in the table above and in the table of reinsurance recoverables above are presented on a nominal basis and have not been adjusted to reflect the time value of money. Accordingly, the amounts above will differ from the Company’s balance sheet to the extent that the liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses and the related reinsurance recoverables have been discounted in the balance sheet. See note 1 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
(6) Workers’ compensation large deductible policies provide third-party coverage in which the Company typically is responsible for paying the entire loss under such policies and then seeks reimbursement from the insured for the deductible amount. “Claims from large deductible policies” represent the estimated future payment for claims and claim related expenses below the deductible amount, net of the estimated recovery of the deductible. The liability and the related deductible receivable for unpaid claims are presented in the consolidated balance sheet as “contractholder payables” and “contractholder receivables,” respectively. Most deductibles for such policies are paid directly from the policyholder’s escrow, which is periodically replenished by the policyholder. The payment of the loss amounts above the deductible are reported within “Claims and claim adjustment expenses” in the above table. Because the timing of the collection of the deductible (contractholder receivables) occurs shortly after the payment of the deductible to a claimant (contractholder payables), these cash flows offset each other in the table.
The estimated timing of the payment of the contractholder payables and the collection of contractholder receivables (net of allowance for expected credit losses) for workers’ compensation policies is presented below:
| (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contractholder payables/receivables | $ | 3,249 | $ | 1,024 | $ | 961 | $ | 411 | $ | 853 |
The above table does not include an analysis of liabilities reported for structured settlements for which the Company has purchased annuities and remains contingently liable in the event of default by the company issuing the annuity. The Company is not reasonably likely to incur material future payment obligations under such agreements. In addition, the Company is not currently subject to any minimum funding requirements for its qualified pension plan. Accordingly, future contributions are not included in the foregoing table.
The Company believes that the combination of operating company liquidity, holding company liquidity, its investment portfolio and its capital resources are sufficient to meet its contractual obligations.
Dividend Availability
The Company’s principal insurance subsidiaries are domiciled in the State of Connecticut. The insurance holding company laws of Connecticut applicable to the Company’s subsidiaries requires notice to, and approval by, the state insurance commissioner for the declaration or payment of any dividend that, together with other distributions made within the preceding twelve months, exceeds the greater of 10% of the insurer’s statutory capital and surplus as of the preceding December 31, or the insurer’s net income for the twelve-month period ending the preceding December 31, in each case determined in accordance with statutory accounting practices and by state regulation. This declaration or payment is further limited by adjusted unassigned surplus, as determined in accordance with statutory accounting practices. The insurance holding company laws of other states in which the Company’s subsidiaries are domiciled generally contain similar, although in some instances somewhat more restrictive, limitations on the payment of dividends. A maximum of $2.73 billion is available by the end of 2024 for such dividends to ultimately be paid to the holding company, TRV, without prior approval of the Connecticut Insurance Department. The Company may choose to accelerate the timing within 2024 and/or increase the amount of dividends from its insurance subsidiaries in 2024, which could result in certain dividends being subject to approval by the Connecticut Insurance Department prior to payment.
In addition to the regulatory restrictions on the amount of dividends that can be paid by the Company’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries, the maximum amount of dividends that may be paid to the Company’s shareholders is also limited, to a lesser degree, by certain covenants contained in its line of credit agreement with a syndicate of financial institutions that require the
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Company to maintain a minimum consolidated net worth as described in note 9 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
TRV is not dependent on dividends or other forms of repatriation from its foreign operations to support its liquidity needs. The undistributed earnings of the Company’s foreign operations are intended to be permanently reinvested in those operations, and such earnings were not material to the Company’s financial position or liquidity at December 31, 2023.
The U.S. insurance subsidiaries paid dividends of $1.17 billion and $2.90 billion during 2023 and 2022, respectively.
Pension and Other Postretirement Benefit Plans
The Company sponsors a qualified non-contributory defined benefit pension plan (the qualified domestic pension plan), which covers substantially all U.S. domestic employees and provides benefits primarily under a cash balance formula. In addition, the Company sponsors a nonqualified defined benefit pension plan which covers certain highly-compensated employees, pension plans for employees of its foreign subsidiaries, and a postretirement health and life insurance benefit plan for employees satisfying certain age and service requirements and for certain retirees.
The qualified domestic pension plan is subject to regulations under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 as amended (ERISA), which requires plans to meet minimum standards of funding and requires such plans to subscribe to plan termination insurance through the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). The Company does not have a minimum funding requirement for the qualified domestic pension plan for 2024 and does not anticipate having a minimum funding requirement in 2025. The Company has significant discretion in making contributions above those necessary to satisfy the minimum funding requirements. In 2023, 2022 and 2021, there was no minimum funding requirement for the qualified domestic pension plan. In 2023, 2022 and 2021, the Company made no voluntary contributions to the qualified domestic pension plan. The qualified domestic pension plan had a funded status of 120% and 116% at December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. Based on its funded status at December 31, 2023, the Company does not currently anticipate making a voluntary contribution to the qualified domestic pension plan in 2024. In determining future contributions, the Company will consider the performance of the plan’s investment portfolio, the effects of interest rates on the projected benefit obligation of the plan and the Company’s other capital requirements.
The qualified domestic pension plan assets are managed to maximize long-term total return while maintaining an appropriate level of risk. The Company’s overall investment strategy is to achieve a mix of approximately 85% to 90% of investments for long-term growth and 10% to 15% for near-term benefit payments with a diversification of asset types, fund strategies and fund managers. The current target allocations for plan assets are 55% to 65% equity securities and 20% to 40% fixed income securities, with the remainder allocated to short-term securities. For 2024, the Company plans to apply an expected long-term rate of return on plan assets of 7.00%, comparable with 2023. The expected rate of return reflects the Company’s current expectations with regard to long-term returns in the capital markets, taking into account the pension plan’s asset allocation targets, the historical performance and current valuation of U.S. and international equities, and the level of long term interest rate and inflation expectations.
For further discussion of the pension and other postretirement benefit plans, see note 15 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Risk-Based Capital
The NAIC has an RBC requirement for most property and casualty insurance companies, which determines minimum capital requirements and is intended to raise the level of protection for policyholder obligations. The Company’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries are subject to these NAIC RBC requirements based on laws that have been adopted by individual states. These requirements subject insurers having policyholders’ surplus less than that required by the RBC calculation to varying degrees of regulatory action, depending on the level of capital inadequacy. Each of the Company’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries had policyholders’ surplus at December 31, 2023 significantly above the level at which any RBC regulatory action would occur. Regulators in the jurisdictions in which the Company’s foreign insurance subsidiaries are located require insurance companies to maintain certain levels of capital depending on, among other things, the type and amount of insurance policies written. Each of the Company’s foreign insurance subsidiaries had capital significantly above their respective regulatory requirements at December 31, 2023.
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Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements
The Company has entered into certain contingent obligations for guarantees related to selling businesses to third parties, certain investments, certain insurance policy obligations of former insurance subsidiaries and various other indemnifications. See note 17 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements. The Company does not believe it is reasonably likely that these arrangements will have a material current or future effect on the Company’s financial position, changes in financial position, revenues and expenses, results of operations, liquidity, capital expenditures or capital resources.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
The Company considers its most significant accounting estimates to be those applied to claims and claim adjustment expense reserves and related reinsurance recoverables, and impairments of investments, goodwill and other intangible assets.
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expense Reserves
Gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves by product line were as follows:
| December 31, 2023 | December 31, 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in millions) | Case | IBNR | Total | Case | IBNR | Total | |||||||||||||||||
| General liability | $ | 5,658 | $ | 10,214 | $ | 15,872 | $ | 5,465 | $ | 9,220 | $ | 14,685 | |||||||||||
| Commercial property | 1,447 | 281 | 1,728 | 1,200 | 439 | 1,639 | |||||||||||||||||
| Commercial multi-peril | 2,869 | 2,905 | 5,774 | 2,624 | 2,759 | 5,383 | |||||||||||||||||
| Commercial automobile | 2,661 | 2,773 | 5,434 | 2,625 | 2,388 | 5,013 | |||||||||||||||||
| Workers’ compensation | 10,004 | 9,203 | 19,207 | 10,034 | 9,458 | 19,492 | |||||||||||||||||
| Fidelity and surety | 265 | 466 | 731 | 166 | 496 | 662 | |||||||||||||||||
| Personal automobile | 2,245 | 2,460 | 4,705 | 2,139 | 2,133 | 4,272 | |||||||||||||||||
| Personal homeowners and other | 1,217 | 2,004 | 3,221 | 1,095 | 1,913 | 3,008 | |||||||||||||||||
| International and other | 2,620 | 2,329 | 4,949 | 2,420 | 2,069 | 4,489 | |||||||||||||||||
| Property-casualty | 28,986 | 32,635 | 61,621 | 27,768 | 30,875 | 58,643 | |||||||||||||||||
| Accident and health | 6 | — | 6 | 6 | — | 6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves | $ | 28,992 | $ | 32,635 | $ | 61,627 | $ | 27,774 | $ | 30,875 | $ | 58,649 |
The $2.98 billion increase in gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves since December 31, 2022 primarily reflected the impacts of (i) catastrophe losses in 2023, (ii) higher volumes of insured exposures and (iii) loss cost trends for the current accident year, partially offset by (iv) claim payments made during 2023 and (v) net favorable prior year reserve development.
Asbestos and environmental reserves are included in the General liability, Commercial multi-peril and International and other lines in the foregoing summary table. Asbestos and environmental reserves are discussed separately; see “Asbestos Claims and Litigation,” “Environmental Claims and Litigation” and “Uncertainty Regarding Adequacy of Asbestos and Environmental Reserves” herein.
Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves represent management’s estimate of the ultimate liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses for claims that have been reported and claims that have been incurred but not yet reported (IBNR) as of the balance sheet date. Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves do not represent an exact calculation of liability, but instead represent management estimates, primarily utilizing actuarial expertise and projection methods. These estimates are expectations of what the ultimate settlement and administration of claims will cost upon final resolution in the future, based on the Company’s assessment of facts and circumstances then known, review of historical settlement patterns, estimates of trends in claims severity and frequency, expected interpretations of legal theories of liability and other factors. In establishing gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, the Company also considers salvage and subrogation. Estimated recoveries from reinsurance are included in “Reinsurance Recoverables” as an asset on the Company’s consolidated balance sheet. The claims and claim adjustment expense reserves are reviewed regularly by qualified actuaries employed by the Company.
The process of estimating claims and claim adjustment expense reserves involves a high degree of judgment and is subject to a number of variables. These variables can be affected by both internal and external events, such as changes in claims handling procedures, changes in individuals involved in the reserve estimation process, economic inflation, changes in the tort environment, legal trends and legislative changes, among others. The impact of many of these items on ultimate costs for claims
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and claim adjustment expenses is difficult to estimate. Estimation difficulties also differ significantly by product line due to differences in claim complexity, the volume of claims, the potential severity of individual claims, the determination of occurrence date for a claim and reporting lags (the time between the occurrence of the policyholder event and when it is actually reported to the insurer). Informed judgment is applied throughout the process, including the application of various individual experiences and expertise to multiple sets of data and analyses. The Company refines its estimates in a regular ongoing process as historical loss experience develops and additional claims are reported and settled. The Company rigorously attempts to consider all significant facts and circumstances known at the time claims and claim adjustment expense reserves are established. Due to the inherent uncertainty underlying these estimates including, but not limited to, the future settlement environment, final resolution of the estimated liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses may be higher or lower than the related claims and claim adjustment expense reserves at the reporting date. Therefore, actual paid losses, as claims are settled in the future, may be materially different than the amount currently recorded-favorable or unfavorable. Because establishment of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves is an inherently uncertain process involving estimates and the application of judgment, currently established claims and claim adjustment expense reserves may change. The Company reflects adjustments to the reserves in the results of operations in the period the estimates are changed.
There are also additional risks which impact the estimation of ultimate costs for catastrophes. For example, the estimation of reserves related to hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires and other catastrophic events can be affected by the inability of the Company and its insureds to access portions of the impacted areas, the complexity of factors contributing to the losses, the legal and regulatory uncertainties, including the interpretation of policy terms and conditions, and the nature of the information available to establish the reserves. Complex factors include, but are not limited to: determining whether damage was caused by flooding versus wind; evaluating general liability and pollution exposures; estimating additional living expenses; estimating the impact of demand surge, infrastructure disruption, fraud, the effect of mold damage and business interruption costs; and reinsurance collectibility. The timing of a catastrophe, such as at or near the end of a reporting period, can also affect the information available to the Company in estimating reserves for that reporting period. The estimates related to catastrophes are adjusted as actual claims emerge.
A portion of the Company’s gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves (totaling $2.18 billion at December 31, 2023) are for asbestos and environmental claims and related litigation. While the ongoing review of asbestos and environmental claims and associated liabilities considers the inconsistencies of court decisions as to coverage, plaintiffs’ expanded theories of liability and the risks inherent in complex litigation and other uncertainties, in the opinion of the Company’s management, it is possible that the outcome of the continued uncertainties regarding these claims could result in liability in future periods that differs from current insurance reserves by an amount that could be material to the Company’s future operating results. See the preceding discussion of “Asbestos Claims and Litigation” and “Environmental Claims and Litigation.”
General Discussion
The process for estimating the liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses begins with the collection and analysis of claim data. Data on individual reported claims, both current and historical, including paid amounts and individual claim adjuster estimates, are grouped by common characteristics (components) and evaluated by actuaries in their analyses of ultimate claim liabilities. Such data is occasionally supplemented with external data as available and when appropriate. The process of analyzing reserves for a component is undertaken on a regular basis, generally quarterly, in light of continually updated information.
Multiple estimation methods are available for the analysis of ultimate claim liabilities. Each estimation method has its own set of assumption variables and its own advantages and disadvantages, with no single estimation method being better than the others in all situations and no one set of assumption variables being meaningful for all product line components. The relative strengths and weaknesses of the particular estimation methods when applied to a particular group of claims can also change over time. Therefore, the actual choice of estimation method(s) can change with each evaluation. The estimation method(s) chosen are those that are believed to produce the most reliable indication at that particular evaluation date for the claim liabilities being evaluated.
In most cases, multiple estimation methods will be valid for the particular facts and circumstances of the claim liabilities being evaluated. This will result in a range of reasonable estimates for any particular claim liability. The Company uses such range analyses to back test whether previously established estimates for reserves by reporting segments are reasonable, given available information. Reported values found to be closer to the endpoints of a range of reasonable estimates are subject to further detailed reviews. These reviews may substantiate the validity of management’s recorded estimate or lead to a change in the reported estimate.
The exact boundary points of these ranges are more qualitative than quantitative in nature, as no clear line of demarcation exists to determine when the set of underlying assumptions for an estimation method switches from being reasonable to unreasonable.
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As a result, the Company does not believe that the endpoints of these ranges are or would be comparable across companies. In addition, potential interactions among the different estimation assumptions for different product lines make the aggregation of individual ranges a highly judgmental and inexact process.
Property-casualty insurance policies are either written on a “claims-made” or on an “occurrence” basis. Claims-made policies generally cover, subject to requirements in individual policies, claims reported during the policy period. Policies that are written on an occurrence basis require that the insured demonstrate that a loss occurred in the policy period, even if the insured reports the loss many years later.
Most general liability policies are written on an occurrence basis. These policies are subject to substantial loss development over time as facts and circumstances change in the years following the policy issuance. The occurrence form, which accounts for much of the reserve development in asbestos and environmental exposures, is also used to provide coverage for construction general liability, including construction defect. Occurrence-based forms of insurance for general liability exposures require substantial projection of loss trends, which can be influenced by a number of factors, including future inflation, judicial interpretations and societal litigation trends (e.g., size of jury awards and propensity of individuals to pursue litigation), among others.
A basic premise in most actuarial analyses is that past patterns demonstrated in the data will repeat themselves in the future, absent a material change in the associated risk factors discussed below. To the extent a material change affecting the ultimate claim liability is known, such change is estimated to the extent possible through an analysis of internal company data and, if available and when appropriate, external data. Such a measurement is specific to the facts and circumstances of the particular claim portfolio and the known change being evaluated. Significant structural changes to the available data, product mix or organization can materially impact the reserve estimation process. In addition, the introduction of new products creates a unique risk as historical company data would typically not be available.
Informed judgment is applied throughout the reserving process. This includes the application of various individual experiences and expertise to multiple sets of data and analyses. In addition to actuaries, experts involved with the reserving process also include underwriting and claims personnel and lawyers, as well as other company management. Therefore, management may have to consider varying individual viewpoints as part of its estimation of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves. It is also likely that during periods of significant change, such as a merger, consistent application of informed judgment becomes even more complicated and difficult.
The variables discussed above in this general discussion have different impacts on reserve estimation uncertainty for a given product line, depending on the length of the claim tail, the reporting lag, the impact of individual claims and the complexity of the claim process for a given product line.
Product lines are generally classifiable as either long tail or short tail, based on the average length of time between the event triggering claims under a policy and the final resolution of those claims. Short tail claims are reported and settled quickly, resulting in less estimation variability. The longer the time to final claim resolution, the greater the exposure to estimation risks and hence the greater the estimation uncertainty.
A major component of the claim tail is the reporting lag. The reporting lag, which is the time between the event triggering a claim and the reporting of the claim to the insurer, makes estimating IBNR inherently more uncertain. In addition, the greater the reporting lag, the greater the proportion of IBNR to the total claim liability for the product line. Writing new products with material reporting lags can result in adding several years’ worth of IBNR claim exposure before the reporting lag exposure becomes clearly observable, thereby increasing the risk associated with estimating the liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses for such products. The most extreme example of claim liabilities with long reporting lags are asbestos claims.
For some lines, the impact of large individual claims can be material to the analysis. These lines are generally referred to as being “low frequency/high severity,” while lines without this “large claim” sensitivity are referred to as “high frequency/low severity.” Estimates of claim liabilities for low frequency/high severity lines can be sensitive to the impact of a small number of potentially large claims. As a result, the role of judgment is much greater for these reserve estimates. In contrast, for high frequency/low severity lines the impact of individual claims is relatively minor and the range of reasonable reserve estimates is likely narrower and more stable.
Claim complexity can also greatly affect the estimation process by impacting the number of assumptions needed to produce the estimate, the potential stability of the underlying data and claim process, and the ability to gain an understanding of the data. Product lines with greater claim complexity, such as for certain surety and construction exposures, have inherently greater estimation uncertainty.
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Actuaries have to exercise a considerable degree of judgment in the evaluation of all these factors in their analysis of reserves. The human element in the application of actuarial judgment is unavoidable when faced with material uncertainty. Different actuaries may choose different assumptions when faced with such uncertainty, based on their individual backgrounds, professional experiences and areas of focus. Hence, the estimates selected by the various actuaries may differ materially from each other.
Lastly, significant structural changes to the available data, product mix or organization can also materially impact the reserve estimation process. Events such as mergers increase the inherent uncertainty of reserve estimates for a period of time, until stable trends re-establish themselves within the new organization.
FY 2022 10-K MD&A
SEC filing source: 0000086312-23-000011.
Item 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following is a discussion and analysis of the Company’s financial condition and results of operations for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, including year-to-year comparisons between 2022 and 2021. Year-to-year comparisons between 2021 and 2020 have been omitted from this Form 10-K, but may be found in "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in Part II, Item 7 of the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021.
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
2022 Consolidated Results of Operations
•Net income of $2.84 billion, or $11.91 per share basic and $11.77 per share diluted
•Net earned premiums of $33.76 billion
•Catastrophe losses of $1.88 billion ($1.48 billion after-tax)
•Net favorable prior year reserve development of $649 million ($512 million after-tax)
•Combined ratio of 95.6%
•Net investment income of $2.56 billion ($2.17 billion after-tax)
•Operating cash flows of $6.47 billion
2022 Consolidated Financial Condition
•Total investments of $80.45 billion; fixed maturities and short-term securities comprise 93% of total investments
•Total assets of $115.72 billion
•Total debt of $7.29 billion, resulting in a debt-to-total capital ratio of 25.3% (21.6% excluding net unrealized investment losses, net of tax, included in shareholders' equity)
•Total capital returned to shareholders of $2.94 billion, comprising $2.06 billion of share repurchases and $880 million of dividends
•Shareholders’ equity of $21.56 billion
•Net unrealized investment losses of $6.22 billion ($4.90 billion after-tax)
•Book value per common share of $92.90
•Holding company liquidity of $1.45 billion
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CONSOLIDATED OVERVIEW
Consolidated Results of Operations
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions except per share amounts) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Premiums | $ | 33,763 | $ | 30,855 | $ | 29,044 | |||||
| Net investment income | 2,562 | 3,033 | 2,227 | ||||||||
| Fee income | 412 | 402 | 429 | ||||||||
| Net realized investment gains (losses) | (204) | 171 | 2 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 351 | 355 | 279 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 36,884 | 34,816 | 31,981 | ||||||||
| Claims and expenses | |||||||||||
| Claims and claim adjustment expenses | 22,854 | 20,298 | 19,123 | ||||||||
| Amortization of deferred acquisition costs | 5,515 | 5,043 | 4,773 | ||||||||
| General and administrative expenses | 4,810 | 4,677 | 4,509 | ||||||||
| Interest expense | 351 | 340 | 339 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 33,530 | 30,358 | 28,744 | ||||||||
| Income before income taxes | 3,354 | 4,458 | 3,237 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense | 512 | 796 | 540 | ||||||||
| Net income | $ | 2,842 | $ | 3,662 | $ | 2,697 | |||||
| Net income per share | |||||||||||
| Basic | $ | 11.91 | $ | 14.63 | $ | 10.56 | |||||
| Diluted | $ | 11.77 | $ | 14.49 | $ | 10.52 | |||||
| Combined ratio | |||||||||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 67.1 | % | 65.1 | % | 65.1 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 28.5 | 29.4 | 29.9 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 95.6 | % | 94.5 | % | 95.0 | % |
The following discussions of the Company’s net income and segment income (loss) are presented on an after-tax basis. Discussions of the components of net income and segment income (loss) are presented on a pre-tax basis, unless otherwise noted. Discussions of earnings per common share are presented on a diluted basis.
Overview
Diluted net income per share of $11.77 in 2022 decreased by 19% from diluted net income per share of $14.49 in 2021. Net income of $2.84 billion in 2022 decreased by 22% from net income of $3.66 billion in 2021. The lower rate of decrease in diluted net income per share reflected the impact of share repurchases in recent periods. The decrease in income before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) lower net investment income, (ii) net realized investment losses compared to net realized investment gains in 2021 and (iii) lower underwriting margins excluding catastrophe losses and prior year reserve development ("underlying underwriting margins"), partially offset by (iv) higher net favorable prior year reserve development. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2022 and 2021 was $649 million and $538 million, respectively. Catastrophe losses in 2022 and 2021 were $1.88 billion and $1.85 billion, respectively. The lower underlying underwriting margins in 2022 were driven by Personal Insurance, partially offset by Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty Insurance. Underlying underwriting margins in 2021 reflected a net favorable impact associated with the pandemic. Income tax expense in 2022 was lower than in 2021, primarily reflecting the impact of the decrease in income before income taxes and a $47 million reduction in income tax expense in the first quarter of 2022 as a result of the resolution of prior year tax matters.
The Company has insurance operations in Canada, the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland and throughout other parts of the world as a corporate member of Lloyd’s, as well as in Brazil and Colombia, primarily through joint ventures. Because these operations are conducted in local currencies other than the U.S. dollar, the Company is subject to changes in foreign currency exchange rates. For the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, changes in foreign currency exchange rates had the impact of lowering the reported line items in the statement of income by insignificant amounts. The impact of these changes was not material to the Company’s net income or segment income for the periods reported.
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Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2022 were $33.76 billion, $2.91 billion or 9% higher than in 2021. In Business Insurance, earned premiums in 2022 increased by 9% over 2021. Earned premiums in Business Insurance in 2021 were negatively impacted by lower net written premiums primarily in the latter half of 2020 due to a modest reduction in exposures and a decrease in new business volume, in each case impacted by COVID-19 and related economic conditions. In Bond & Specialty Insurance, earned premiums in 2022 increased by 9% over 2021. In Personal Insurance, earned premiums in 2022 increased by 11% over 2021. Earned premiums in Bond & Specialty Insurance and Personal Insurance in 2021 were not materially impacted by COVID-19 and related economic conditions. Factors contributing to the change in earned premiums in each segment in 2022 as compared with 2021 are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
Net Investment Income
The following table sets forth information regarding the Company’s investments.
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average investments(1) | $ | 87,191 | $ | 83,574 | $ | 78,070 | |||||
| Pre-tax net investment income | 2,562 | 3,033 | 2,227 | ||||||||
| After-tax net investment income | 2,170 | $ | 2,541 | 1,908 | |||||||
| Average pre-tax yield(2) | 2.9 | % | 3.6 | % | 2.9 | % | |||||
| Average after-tax yield(2) | 2.5 | % | 3.0 | % | 2.4 | % |
___________________________________________
(1)Excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses and reflects cash, receivables for investment sales, payables on investment purchases and accrued investment income.
(2)Excludes net realized and net unrealized investment gains and losses.
Net investment income in 2022 was $2.56 billion, $471 million or 16% lower than in 2021. Net investment income from fixed maturity investments in 2022 was $2.11 billion, $124 million higher than in 2021. The increase primarily resulted from a higher average level of fixed maturity investments and higher average yields. Net investment income from short-term securities in 2022 was $73 million, $66 million higher than in 2021. The increase primarily resulted from higher short-term average yields, partially offset by a lower level of short-term investments. The Company's remaining investment portfolios had net investment income of $419 million in 2022, $658 million lower than in 2021, primarily reflecting the impact of lower returns from private equity partnerships as compared to very strong returns in 2021. Included in other investments are private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships that are accounted for under the equity method of accounting and typically report their financial statement information to the Company one month to three months following the end of the reporting period. Accordingly, net investment income from these other investments is generally reflected in the Company's financial statements on a quarter lag basis.
Fee Income
Fee income in 2022 was $412 million, $10 million higher than in 2021. The National Accounts market in Business Insurance is the primary source of the Company’s fee-based business and is discussed in the Business Insurance segment discussion that follows.
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Net Realized Investment Gains (Losses)
The following table sets forth information regarding the Company’s net pre-tax realized investment gains (losses).
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impairment gains (losses): | |||||||||||
| Fixed maturities | $ | (26) | $ | (2) | $ | (15) | |||||
| Real estate investments | (12) | — | — | ||||||||
| Other investments | — | — | (40) | ||||||||
| Net realized investment gains (losses) on equity securities still held | (61) | 78 | 27 | ||||||||
| Other net realized investment gains (losses), including from sales | (105) | 95 | 30 | ||||||||
| Total | $ | (204) | $ | 171 | $ | 2 |
Net realized investment losses on equity securities still held of $61 million in 2022 were driven by the impact of changes in fair value attributable to unfavorable equity markets. Net realized investment gains on equity securities still held of $78 million in 2021 were driven by the impact of changes in fair value attributable to favorable equity markets.
Other net realized investment losses in 2022 included $72 million of net realized investment losses related to fixed maturity investments, $8 million of net realized investment losses related to equity securities sold and $25 million of net realized investment losses related to other investments. Other net realized investment gains in 2021 included $69 million of net realized investment gains related to fixed maturity investments, $17 million of net realized investment gains related to equity securities sold and $9 million of net realized investment gains related to other investments.
Other Revenues
Other revenues in 2022 were $351 million, $4 million lower than 2021. Other revenues include revenues from Simply Business, installment premium charges and other policyholder service charges. Other revenues from Simply Business were negatively impacted by changes in foreign currency exchange rates.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2022 were $22.85 billion, $2.56 billion or 13% higher than 2021, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) higher business volumes, (ii) loss cost trends, including elevated losses in both the automobile and homeowners and other product lines in Personal Insurance and (iii) favorable loss activity associated with the pandemic in 2021 in Business Insurance, partially offset by (iv) higher net favorable prior year reserve development. Catastrophes in 2022 primarily resulted from a significant winter storm that impacted most of the U.S. and parts of Canada and Hurricanes Ian and Fiona, as well as severe wind and hail storms in several regions of the United States. Catastrophes in 2021 primarily resulted from winter storms, Hurricane Ida, tornado activity in Kentucky and severe wind and hail storms in several regions of the United States, as well as a wildfire in Colorado. Catastrophe and non-catastrophe weather-related losses in 2021 were reduced by the full $350 million of recoveries available under the Company's 2021 Underlying Property Aggregate Catastrophe Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance Treaty.
Factors contributing to net favorable prior year reserve development during the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020 are discussed in more detail in note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Significant Catastrophe Losses
The Company defines a “catastrophe” as an event:
•that is designated a catastrophe by internationally recognized organizations that track and report on insured losses resulting from catastrophic events, such as Property Claim Services (PCS) for events in the United States and Canada; and
•for which the Company’s estimates of its ultimate losses before reinsurance and taxes exceed a pre-established dollar threshold.
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The Company’s threshold for disclosing catastrophes is primarily determined at the reportable segment level. If a threshold for one segment or a combination thereof is exceeded and the other segments have losses from the same event, losses from the event are identified as catastrophe losses in the segment results and for the consolidated results of the Company. Additionally, an aggregate threshold is applied for International business across all reportable segments. The threshold for 2022 ranged from approximately $20 million to $30 million of losses before reinsurance and taxes.
The following table presents the amount of losses recorded by the Company for significant catastrophes that occurred in 2022, 2021 and 2020, the amount of net unfavorable (favorable) prior year reserve development recognized in 2022 and 2021 for catastrophes that occurred in 2021 and 2020, and the estimate of ultimate losses for those catastrophes at December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020. For purposes of the table, a significant catastrophe is an event for which the Company estimates its ultimate losses will be $100 million or more after reinsurance and before taxes.
| Losses Incurred / Unfavorable (Favorable) Prior Year Reserve Development for the Year Ended December 31, | Estimated Ultimate Losses at December 31, | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in millions, pre-tax and net of reinsurance)(1) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||||||
| PCS Serial Number: | ||||||||||||||||
| 16 — Tennessee tornado activity | 3 | (9) | 151 | 145 | 142 | 151 | ||||||||||
| 19 — Severe storms | (2) | (9) | 134 | 123 | 125 | 134 | ||||||||||
| 20 — Severe storms | 6 | (25) | 165 | 146 | 140 | 165 | ||||||||||
| 33 — Civil unrest | (7) | (7) | 100 | 86 | 93 | 100 | ||||||||||
| 44 — Tropical Storm Isaias | 3 | (22) | 140 | 121 | 118 | 140 | ||||||||||
| 46 — Midwest derecho | 3 | (10) | 212 | 205 | 202 | 212 | ||||||||||
| 68 — California wildfire - Glass fire (2) | (19) | (9) | 145 | 117 | 136 | 145 | ||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||||||
| PCS Serial Number: | ||||||||||||||||
| 15 — Winter storm | (13) | 228 | n/a | 215 | 228 | n/a | ||||||||||
| 17 — Winter storm | (25) | 508 | n/a | 483 | 508 | n/a | ||||||||||
| 29 — Severe wind storms | (12) | 105 | n/a | 93 | 105 | n/a | ||||||||||
| 60 — Hurricane Ida | (81) | 417 | n/a | 336 | 417 | n/a | ||||||||||
| 76 — Tornado outbreak | (18) | 131 | n/a | 113 | 131 | n/a | ||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||||||
| PCS Serial Number: | ||||||||||||||||
| 33 — Severe wind and hail storms | 137 | n/a | n/a | 137 | n/a | n/a | ||||||||||
| 35 — Severe wind and hail storms | 184 | n/a | n/a | 184 | n/a | n/a | ||||||||||
| 43 — Severe wind and hail storms | 122 | n/a | n/a | 122 | n/a | n/a | ||||||||||
| 61 — Hurricane Ian | 227 | n/a | n/a | 227 | n/a | n/a | ||||||||||
| 73 — Winter storm | 512 | n/a | n/a | 512 | n/a | n/a |
___________________________________________
(1) Amounts are reported pre-tax and net of recoveries under all applicable reinsurance treaties, except for the Company's 2022, 2021 and 2020 Underlying Property Aggregate Catastrophe Excess-of-Loss Treaties. Those treaties covered the accumulation of certain property losses arising from one or multiple occurrences (both catastrophe and non-catastrophe events) for the period January 1, 2022 through and including December 31, 2022, the period January 1, 2021 through and including December 31, 2021 and the period January 1, 2020 through and including December 31, 2020, respectively. As a result, the benefit from the 2021 and 2020 treaties are not included in the table as the allocation of the treaties' benefit to each identified catastrophe changes each time there are additional events or changes in estimated losses from any covered event.
(2) In addition to the Glass fire, there were 16 other PCS-designated wildfires in 2020. While none of the 16 wildfires were individually large enough to meet the Company's threshold for disclosure as a significant catastrophe in this table, total losses in 2020 from those wildfires were $169 million, of which two wildfires totaling $73 million met the Company's threshold for disclosure as catastrophes.
n/a: not applicable.
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Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2022 was $5.52 billion, $472 million or 9% higher than in 2021. The increase in 2022 was generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums. Amortization of deferred acquisition costs is discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2022 were $4.81 billion, $133 million or 3% higher than in 2021, primarily reflecting the impact of costs associated with higher business volumes. General and administrative expenses in 2021 included the benefit of lower net expenses related to COVID-19 and related economic conditions. General and administrative expenses are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
Interest Expense
Interest expense in 2022 and 2021 was $351 million and $340 million, respectively.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2022 was $512 million, $284 million or 36% lower than in 2021, primarily reflecting the impact of the $1.10 billion decrease in income before income taxes in 2022 and the $47 million reduction in income tax expense in the first quarter of 2022 as a result of the resolution of prior year tax matters.
The Company’s effective tax rate was 15% and 18% in 2022 and 2021, respectively. The effective tax rates in both years were lower than the statutory rate of 21%, primarily due to the impact of tax-exempt investment income on the calculation of the Company’s income tax provision. In addition, the effective tax rate for 2022 was reduced by the impact of the resolution of prior year tax matters discussed above.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 95.6% in 2022 was 1.1 points higher than the combined ratio of 94.5% in 2021. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 67.1% in 2022 was 2.0 points higher than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 65.1% in 2021. The underwriting expense ratio of 28.5% in 2022 was 0.9 points lower than the underwriting expense ratio of 29.4% in 2021.
Catastrophe losses in 2022 and 2021 accounted for 5.5 points and 6.0 points, respectively, of the combined ratio. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2022 and 2021 provided 1.9 points and 1.8 points of benefit, respectively, to the combined ratio. The combined ratio excluding prior year reserve development and catastrophe losses ("underlying combined ratio") in 2022 was 1.7 points higher than the 2021 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) elevated losses in both the automobile and homeowners and other product lines in Personal Insurance and (ii) a favorable impact associated with the pandemic in 2021 in Business Insurance, partially offset by (iii) the benefit of earned pricing in Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty Insurance and (iv) a lower expense ratio.
The combined ratio continues to be impacted by the tort environment, including more aggressive attorney involvement in insurance claims.
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Written Premiums
Consolidated gross and net written premiums were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||
| Business Insurance | $ | 19,521 | $ | 17,829 | $ | 17,060 | ||||
| Bond & Specialty Insurance | 4,082 | 3,725 | 3,184 | |||||||
| Personal Insurance | 14,273 | 12,690 | 11,519 | |||||||
| Total | $ | 37,876 | $ | 34,244 | $ | 31,763 |
| Net Written Premiums | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||
| Business Insurance | $ | 17,635 | $ | 16,092 | $ | 15,431 | ||||
| Bond & Specialty Insurance | 3,732 | 3,376 | 2,951 | |||||||
| Personal Insurance | 14,047 | 12,491 | 11,350 | |||||||
| Total | $ | 35,414 | $ | 31,959 | $ | 29,732 |
Gross and net written premiums in 2022 both increased by 11% over 2021. Factors contributing to the changes in gross and net written premiums in each segment are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS BY SEGMENT
Business Insurance
Results of Business Insurance were as follows:
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 17,095 | $ | 15,734 | $ | 15,294 | |||||
| Net investment income | 1,864 | 2,265 | 1,633 | ||||||||
| Fee income | 382 | 375 | 405 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 248 | 235 | 176 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 19,589 | 18,609 | 17,508 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 16,522 | 15,725 | 15,986 | ||||||||
| Segment income before income taxes | 3,067 | 2,884 | 1,522 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense | 536 | 499 | 213 | ||||||||
| Segment income | $ | 2,531 | $ | 2,385 | $ | 1,309 | |||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 62.8 | % | 65.0 | % | 69.4 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 29.7 | 30.7 | 30.9 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 92.5 | % | 95.7 | % | 100.3 | % |
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Overview
Segment income in 2022 was $2.53 billion, $146 million or 6% higher than segment income of $2.39 billion in 2021. The increase in segment income before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) higher underlying underwriting margins, (ii) higher net favorable prior year reserve development and (iii) lower catastrophe losses, partially offset by (iv) lower net investment income. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2022 and 2021 was $381 million and $173 million, respectively. Catastrophe losses in 2022 and 2021 were $654 million and $793 million, respectively. The higher underlying underwriting margins primarily reflected the impacts of (i) higher business volumes and (ii) the benefit of earned pricing, partially offset by (iii) a favorable impact associated with the pandemic in 2021. Income tax expense in 2022 was higher than in 2021, primarily reflecting the impact of the increase in segment income before income taxes.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2022 were $17.10 billion, $1.36 billion or 9% higher than in 2021, primarily reflecting the increase in net written premiums over the preceding twelve months. Earned premiums in 2021 were negatively impacted by lower net written premiums primarily in the latter half of 2020 due to a modest reduction in exposures and a decrease in new business volume, in each case impacted by COVID-19 and related economic conditions.
Net Investment Income
Net investment income in 2022 was $1.86 billion, $401 million or 18% lower than in 2021. Refer to the “Net Investment Income” section of the “Consolidated Results of Operations” discussion for a description of the factors contributing to the decrease in the Company’s consolidated net investment income in 2022 compared with 2021. In addition, refer to note 2 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for a discussion of the Company’s net investment income allocation methodology.
Fee Income
National Accounts is the primary source of fee income due to revenue from its large deductible policies and service businesses, which include risk management, claims administration, loss control and risk management information services provided to third parties, as well as policy issuance and claims management services to workers’ compensation residual market pools. Fee income in 2022 was $382 million, $7 million or 2% higher than in 2021, primarily reflecting higher serviced premium volume from the workers' compensation residual market pool, partially offset by lower claim volume under administration associated with large deductible policies.
Other Revenues
Other revenues in 2022 were $248 million, $13 million or 6% higher than in 2021, and include the receipt of a surplus distribution from a state workers' compensation fund. Other revenues also included revenues from Simply Business, installment premium charges and other policyholder service charges. Other revenues from Simply Business were negatively impacted by changes in foreign currency exchange rates.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2022 were $10.91 billion, $509 million or 5% higher than in 2021, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) loss cost trends, (ii) higher business volumes and (iii) favorable loss activity associated with the pandemic in 2021, partially offset by (iv) higher net favorable prior year reserve development and (v) lower catastrophe losses. Catastrophe losses and non-catastrophe weather-related losses in 2021 were reduced by recoveries under the Company's 2021 Underlying Property Aggregate Catastrophe Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance Treaty.
Factors contributing to net prior year reserve development during the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020 are discussed in more detail in note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
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Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2022 was $2.79 billion, $207 million or 8% higher than in 2021, generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2022 were $2.83 billion, $81 million or 3% higher than in 2021, primarily reflecting the impact of higher business volumes. General and administrative expenses in 2021 included the benefit of lower travel-related expenses attributable to COVID-19 and related economic conditions.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2022 was $536 million, $37 million or 7% higher than in 2021, primarily reflecting the impact of the $183 million increase in segment income before income taxes in 2022. Income tax expense in 2022 was reduced by $3 million as a result of the resolution of prior year tax matters.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 92.5% in 2022 was 3.2 points lower than the combined ratio of 95.7% in 2021. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 62.8% in 2022 was 2.2 points lower than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 65.0% in 2021. The underwriting expense ratio of 29.7% in 2022 was 1.0 points lower than the underwriting expense ratio of 30.7% in 2021.
Catastrophe losses in 2022 and 2021 accounted for 3.8 points and 5.1 points, respectively, of the combined ratio. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2022 and 2021 provided 2.2 points and 1.1 points of benefit, respectively, to the combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio in 2022 was 0.8 points lower than the 2021 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) a lower expense ratio and (ii) the benefit of earned pricing, partially offset by (iii) a favorable impact associated with the pandemic in 2021.
Written Premiums
Business Insurance’s gross and net written premiums by market were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Select Accounts | $ | 3,126 | $ | 2,860 | $ | 2,848 | |||||
| Middle Market | 10,532 | 9,487 | 9,017 | ||||||||
| National Accounts | 1,642 | 1,517 | 1,540 | ||||||||
| National Property and Other | 2,942 | 2,701 | 2,460 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 18,242 | 16,565 | 15,865 | ||||||||
| International | 1,279 | 1,264 | 1,195 | ||||||||
| Total Business Insurance | $ | 19,521 | $ | 17,829 | $ | 17,060 |
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| Net Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Select Accounts | $ | 3,099 | $ | 2,833 | $ | 2,821 | |||||
| Middle Market | 9,923 | 8,933 | 8,511 | ||||||||
| National Accounts | 1,085 | 987 | 996 | ||||||||
| National Property and Other | 2,467 | 2,265 | 2,086 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 16,574 | 15,018 | 14,414 | ||||||||
| International | 1,061 | 1,074 | 1,017 | ||||||||
| Total Business Insurance | $ | 17,635 | $ | 16,092 | $ | 15,431 |
Gross and net written premiums in 2022 increased by 9% and 10%, respectively, over 2021.
Select Accounts. Net written premiums of $3.10 billion in 2022 increased by 9% over 2021. Retention rates remained strong in 2022 and increased over 2021. Renewal premium changes in 2022 remained positive and were lower than in 2021. New business premiums in 2022 increased over 2021.
Middle Market. Net written premiums of $9.92 billion in 2022 increased by 11% over 2021. Retention rates remained strong in 2022 and increased over 2021. Renewal premium changes in 2022 remained positive and were lower than in 2021. New business premiums in 2022 increased over 2021.
National Accounts. Net written premiums of $1.09 billion in 2022 increased by 10% over 2021. Retention rates remained strong in 2022 and increased over 2021. Renewal premium changes in 2022 remained positive and were higher than in 2021. New business premiums in 2022 decreased from 2021.
National Property and Other. Net written premiums of $2.47 billion in 2022 increased by 9% over 2021. Retention rates remained strong in 2022 and increased over 2021. Renewal premium changes in 2022 remained positive and were higher than in 2021. New business premiums in 2022 increased over 2021.
International. Net written premiums of $1.06 billion in 2022 decreased by 1% from 2021, primarily driven by the impact of changes in foreign currency exchange rates.
Bond & Specialty Insurance
Results of Bond & Specialty Insurance were as follows:
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 3,418 | $ | 3,138 | $ | 2,823 | |||||
| Net investment income | 258 | 247 | 213 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 20 | 23 | 27 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 3,696 | 3,408 | 3,063 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 2,593 | 2,575 | 2,483 | ||||||||
| Segment income before income taxes | 1,103 | 833 | 580 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense | 195 | 165 | 107 | ||||||||
| Segment income | $ | 908 | $ | 668 | $ | 473 | |||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 39.9 | % | 46.6 | % | 51.5 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 35.4 | 34.9 | 35.9 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 75.3 | % | 81.5 | % | 87.4 | % |
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Overview
Segment income in 2022 was $908 million, $240 million or 36% higher than segment income of $668 million in 2021. The increase in segment income before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) higher underlying underwriting margins and (ii) higher net favorable prior year reserve development. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2022 and 2021 was $222 million and $105 million, respectively. Catastrophe losses in 2022 and 2021 were $25 million and $40 million, respectively. The higher underlying underwriting margins primarily reflected the impacts of (i) higher business volumes and (ii) the benefit of earned pricing, partially offset by (iii) higher general and administrative expenses. Income tax expense in 2022 was higher than in 2021, primarily reflecting the impact of the increase in segment income before income taxes, partially offset by a $24 million reduction in income tax expense in the first quarter of 2022 as a result of the resolution of prior year tax matters.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2022 were $3.42 billion, $280 million or 9% higher than in 2021, primarily reflecting an increase in net written premiums over the preceding twelve months.
Net Investment Income
Net investment income in 2022 was $258 million, $11 million or 4% higher than in 2021. Included in Bond & Specialty Insurance are certain legal entities whose invested assets and related net investment income are reported exclusively in this segment and not allocated among all business segments. Refer to the “Net Investment Income” section of the “Consolidated Results of Operations” discussion for a description of the factors contributing to the decrease in the Company’s consolidated net investment income in 2022 as compared with 2021. In addition, refer to note 2 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for a discussion of the Company’s net investment income allocation methodology.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2022 were $1.38 billion, $95 million or 6% lower than in 2021, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) higher net favorable prior year reserve development and (ii) lower catastrophe losses, partially offset by (iii) higher business volumes.
Factors contributing to net prior year reserve development during the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020 are discussed in more detail in note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2022 was $625 million, $55 million or 10% higher than in 2021, generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2022 were $590 million, $58 million or 11% higher than in 2021, primarily reflecting the impact of higher business volumes.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2022 was $195 million, $30 million or 18% higher than in 2021, primarily reflecting the impact of the $270 million increase in segment income before income taxes in 2022, partially offset by the $24 million reduction in income tax expense in the first quarter of 2022 as a result of the resolution of prior year tax matters.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 75.3% in 2022 was 6.2 points lower than the combined ratio of 81.5% in 2021. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 39.9% in 2022 was 6.7 points lower than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 46.6% in
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2021. The underwriting expense ratio of 35.4% in 2022 was 0.5 points higher than the underwriting expense ratio of 34.9% in 2021.
Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2022 and 2021 provided 6.5 points and 3.3 points of benefit, respectively, to the combined ratio. Catastrophe losses in 2022 and 2021 accounted for 0.7 points and 1.3 points, respectively, of the combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio in 2022 was 2.4 points lower than the 2021 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the benefit of earned pricing.
Written Premiums
Bond & Specialty Insurance’s gross and net written premiums were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Management Liability | $ | 2,361 | $ | 2,243 | $ | 1,920 | |||||
| Surety | 1,153 | 952 | 910 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 3,514 | 3,195 | 2,830 | ||||||||
| International | 568 | 530 | 354 | ||||||||
| Total Bond & Specialty Insurance | $ | 4,082 | $ | 3,725 | $ | 3,184 |
| Net Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Management Liability | $ | 2,112 | $ | 1,983 | $ | 1,769 | |||||
| Surety | 1,081 | 888 | 845 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 3,193 | 2,871 | 2,614 | ||||||||
| International | 539 | 505 | 337 | ||||||||
| Total Bond & Specialty Insurance | $ | 3,732 | $ | 3,376 | $ | 2,951 |
Gross written premiums and net written premiums in 2022 increased by 10% and 11%, respectively, over 2021.
Domestic. Net written premiums in 2022 were $3.19 billion, $322 million or 11% higher than in 2021. Excluding the surety line of business, for which the following are not relevant measures, retention rates remained strong in 2022 and increased over 2021. Renewal premium changes in 2022 remained positive and were lower than in 2021. New business premiums in 2022 increased over 2021.
International. Net written premiums in 2022 were $539 million, $34 million or 7% higher than in 2021, primarily driven by increases in the United Kingdom and broader Europe, as well as Canada, partially offset by the impact of changes in foreign currency exchange rates.
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Personal Insurance
Results of Personal Insurance were as follows:
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 13,250 | $ | 11,983 | $ | 10,927 | |||||
| Net investment income | 440 | 521 | 381 | ||||||||
| Fee income | 30 | 27 | 24 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 83 | 97 | 76 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 13,803 | 12,628 | 11,408 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 14,033 | 11,689 | 9,905 | ||||||||
| Segment income (loss) before income taxes | (230) | 939 | 1,503 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense (benefit) | (90) | 179 | 308 | ||||||||
| Segment income (loss) | $ | (140) | $ | 760 | $ | 1,195 | |||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 79.8 | % | 70.3 | % | 62.8 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 25.1 | 26.2 | 26.9 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 104.9 | % | 96.5 | % | 89.7 | % |
Overview
Segment loss in 2022 was $140 million, compared with segment income of $760 million in 2021. Segment loss before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) lower underlying underwriting margins, (ii) lower net favorable prior year reserve development, (iii) higher catastrophe losses and (iv) lower net investment income. Catastrophe losses in 2022 and 2021 were $1.20 billion and $1.01 billion, respectively. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2022 and 2021 was $46 million and $260 million, respectively. The lower underlying underwriting margins primarily reflected the impacts of (i) elevated losses in both the automobile and homeowners and other product lines, partially offset by (ii) higher business volumes. The segment recorded an income tax benefit in 2022 compared to income tax expense in 2021, primarily reflecting the impact of the segment loss before income taxes compared with segment income before income taxes in 2021 and a $20 million reduction in income tax expense in the first quarter of 2022 as a result of the resolution of prior year tax matters.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2022 were $13.25 billion, $1.27 billion or 11% higher than in 2021, primarily reflecting the increase in net written premiums over the preceding twelve months.
Net Investment Income
Net investment income in 2022 was $440 million, $81 million or 16% lower than in 2021. Refer to the “Net Investment Income” section of the “Consolidated Results of Operations” discussion for a description of the factors contributing to the decrease in the Company’s consolidated net investment income in 2022 as compared with 2021. In addition, refer to note 2 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for a discussion of the Company’s net investment income allocation methodology.
Other Revenues
Other revenues in all years presented primarily consisted of installment premium charges.
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Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2022 were $10.57 billion, $2.14 billion or 25% higher than in 2021, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) loss cost trends, including elevated losses in both the automobile and homeowners and other product lines, (ii) higher business volumes, (iii) lower net favorable prior year reserve development and (iv) higher catastrophe losses. Catastrophe losses and non-catastrophe weather-related losses in 2021 were reduced by recoveries under the Company's 2021 Underlying Property Aggregate Catastrophe Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance Treaty.
Net favorable prior year reserve development was not significant for the year ended December 31, 2022. Factors contributing to net favorable prior year reserve development during the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020 are discussed in more detail in note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2022 was $2.10 billion, $210 million or 11% higher than in 2021, generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2022 were $1.36 billion, $8 million or 1% lower than in 2021, primarily reflecting lower contingent commissions, partially offset by the impact of higher business volumes.
Income Tax Expense (Benefit)
The income tax benefit in 2022 was $90 million, compared with income tax expense of $179 million in 2021, primarily reflecting the impact of the segment loss before income taxes of $230 million in 2022 compared with segment income before income taxes of $939 million in 2021 and the $20 million reduction in income tax expense in the first quarter of 2022 as a result of the resolution of prior year tax matters.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 104.9% in 2022 was 8.4 points higher than the combined ratio of 96.5% in 2021. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 79.8% in 2022 was 9.5 points higher than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 70.3% in 2021. The underwriting expense ratio of 25.1% in 2022 was 1.1 points lower than the underwriting expense ratio of 26.2% in 2021.
Catastrophe losses accounted for 9.0 points and 8.5 points of the combined ratio in 2022 and 2021, respectively. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2022 and 2021 provided 0.3 points and 2.2 points of benefit, respectively, to the combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio in 2022 was 6.0 points higher than the 2021 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) elevated losses in both the automobile and homeowners and other product lines, partially offset by (ii) a lower expense ratio.
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Written Premiums
Personal Insurance’s gross and net written premiums were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Automobile | $ | 6,507 | $ | 5,852 | $ | 5,395 | |||||
| Homeowners and Other | 7,099 | 6,137 | 5,457 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 13,606 | 11,989 | 10,852 | ||||||||
| International | 667 | 701 | 667 | ||||||||
| Total Personal Insurance | $ | 14,273 | $ | 12,690 | $ | 11,519 |
| Net Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Automobile | $ | 6,482 | $ | 5,827 | $ | 5,369 | |||||
| Homeowners and Other | 6,916 | 5,980 | 5,329 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 13,398 | 11,807 | 10,698 | ||||||||
| International | 649 | 684 | 652 | ||||||||
| Total Personal Insurance | $ | 14,047 | $ | 12,491 | $ | 11,350 |
Gross and net written premiums in 2022 both increased by 12% over 2021.
Domestic
Automobile net written premiums of $6.48 billion in 2022 increased by 11% over 2021. Retention rates remained strong in 2022 but were lower than in 2021. Renewal premium changes in 2022 remained positive and were higher than in 2021. New business premiums in 2022 increased over 2021.
Homeowners and Other net written premiums of $6.92 billion in 2022 increased by 16% over 2021. Retention rates remained strong in 2022 but were lower than in 2021. Renewal premium changes in 2022 remained positive and were higher than in 2021. New business premiums in 2022 were comparable with 2021.
For its Domestic business, Personal Insurance had approximately 9.2 million and 8.9 million active policies at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively.
International
International net written premiums of $649 million in 2022 decreased by 5% from 2021, driven by the impact of changes in foreign currency exchange rates and declines in the automobile product line.
For its International business, Personal Insurance had approximately 449,000 and 477,000 active policies at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively.
Interest Expense and Other
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income (loss) | $ | (301) | $ | (291) | $ | (291) |
The income (loss) for Interest Expense and Other in 2022 and 2021 was $(301) million and $(291) million, respectively. Pre-tax interest expense in 2022 and 2021 was $351 million and $340 million, respectively. After-tax interest expense in 2022 and 2021 was $277 million and $269 million, respectively.
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ASBESTOS CLAIMS AND LITIGATION
The Company believes that the property and casualty insurance industry has suffered from court decisions and other trends that have expanded insurance coverage for asbestos claims far beyond the original intent of insurers and policyholders. The Company has received and continues to receive a significant number of asbestos claims. Factors underlying these claim filings include continued intensive advertising by lawyers seeking asbestos claimants and the focus by plaintiffs on defendants, such as manufacturers of talcum powder, who were not traditionally primary targets of asbestos litigation. The focus on these defendants is primarily the result of the number of traditional asbestos defendants who have sought bankruptcy protection in previous years. The bankruptcy of many traditional defendants has also caused increased settlement demands against those policyholders who are not in bankruptcy but remain in the tort system. Currently, in many jurisdictions, those who allege very serious injury and who can present credible medical evidence of their injuries are receiving priority trial settings in the courts, while those who have not shown any credible disease manifestation are having their hearing dates delayed or placed on an inactive docket. Prioritizing claims involving credible evidence of injuries, along with the focus on defendants who were not traditionally primary targets of asbestos litigation, contributes to the claims and claim adjustment expense payment patterns experienced by the Company. The Company’s asbestos-related claims and claim adjustment expense experience also has been impacted by the unavailability of other insurance sources potentially available to policyholders, whether through exhaustion of policy limits or through the insolvency of other participating insurers.
The Company continues to be involved in disputes, including litigation, with a number of policyholders, some of whom are in bankruptcy, over coverage for asbestos-related claims. Many coverage disputes with policyholders are only resolved through settlement agreements. Because many policyholders make exaggerated demands, it is difficult to predict the outcome of settlement negotiations. Settlements involving bankrupt policyholders may include extensive releases which are favorable to the Company, but which could result in settlements for larger amounts than originally anticipated. Although the Company has seen a reduction in the overall risk associated with these disputes, it remains difficult to predict the ultimate cost of these claims. As in the past, the Company will continue to pursue settlement opportunities.
In addition to claims against policyholders, proceedings have been launched directly against insurers, including the Company, by individuals challenging insurers’ conduct with respect to the handling of past asbestos claims and by individuals seeking damages arising from alleged asbestos-related bodily injuries. It is possible that other direct actions against insurers, including the Company, could be filed in the future. It is difficult to predict the outcome of these proceedings, including whether the plaintiffs would be able to sustain these actions against insurers based on novel legal theories of liability. The Company believes it has meritorious defenses to any such claims and has received favorable rulings in certain jurisdictions.
Because each policyholder presents different liability and coverage issues, the Company generally reviews the exposure presented by each policyholder with open claims at least annually. Among the factors the Company may consider in the course of this review are: available insurance coverage, including the role of any umbrella or excess insurance the Company has issued to the policyholder; limits and deductibles; an analysis of the policyholder’s potential liability; the jurisdictions involved; past and anticipated future claim activity and loss development on pending claims; past settlement values of similar claims; allocated claim adjustment expense; the potential role of other insurance; the role, if any, of non-asbestos claims or potential non-asbestos claims in any resolution process; and applicable coverage defenses or determinations, if any, including the determination as to whether or not an asbestos claim is a products/completed operation claim subject to an aggregate limit and the available coverage, if any, for that claim.
The Company's net asbestos reserves at December 31, 2022 and 2021 were $1.31 billion and $1.34 billion, respectively, and include case reserves, IBNR reserves and reserves for the costs of defending asbestos-related coverage litigation. IBNR reserves include amounts for new claims and adverse development on existing policyholders, as well as reserves for claims from policyholders reporting asbestos claims for the first time and for policyholders for which there is, or may be, litigation. Asbestos reserves also include amounts related to certain policyholders with whom the Company has entered into permanent settlement agreements, which are based on the expected payout for each policyholder under the applicable agreement. Additionally, a portion of the asbestos reserves relates to assumed reinsurance contracts primarily consisting of reinsurance of excess coverage, including various pool participations.
The Company conducts an annual review of domestic policyholders with open asbestos claims. Policyholders are identified for this review based upon, among other factors: a combination of past payments and current case reserves in excess of a specified threshold (currently $100,000), perceived level of exposure, number of reported claims, products/completed operations and potential “non-product” exposures, size of policyholder and geographic distribution of products or services sold by the policyholder.
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In the third quarter of 2022, the Company completed its annual in-depth asbestos claim review, including a review of policyholders with open claims and litigation cases for potential product and "non-product" liability. The number of policyholders with open asbestos claims and net asbestos payments were relatively flat compared to 2021. Payments on behalf of these policyholders continue to be influenced by an increase in severity for certain policyholders and a high level of litigation activity in a limited number of jurisdictions where individuals alleging serious asbestos-related injury, primarily mesothelioma, continue to target defendants who were not traditionally primary targets of asbestos litigation.
The Company’s quarterly asbestos reserve reviews include an analysis of exposure and claim payment patterns by policyholder, as well as recent settlements, policyholder bankruptcies, judicial rulings and legislative actions. The Company also analyzes developing payment patterns among policyholders and the assumed reinsurance component of reserves, as well as projected reinsurance billings and recoveries. In addition, the Company reviews its historical gross and net loss and expense paid experience, year-by-year, to assess any emerging trends, fluctuations, or characteristics suggested by the aggregate paid activity. Conventional actuarial methods are not utilized to establish asbestos reserves, and the Company’s evaluations have not resulted in a reliable method to determine a meaningful average asbestos defense or indemnity payment.
The completion of these reviews and analyses in 2022, 2021 and 2020 resulted in $212 million, $225 million and $295 million increases, respectively, to the Company’s net asbestos reserves. In each year, the reserve increases were primarily driven by increases in the Company’s estimate of projected settlement and defense costs related to a broad number of policyholders. The increase in the estimate of projected settlement and defense costs primarily resulted from payment trends that continue to be higher than previously anticipated due to the continued high level of mesothelioma claim filings and the impact of the current litigation environment surrounding those claims discussed above. Over the past decade, the property and casualty insurance industry, including the Company, has experienced net unfavorable prior year reserve development with regard to asbestos reserves, but the Company believes that over that period there has been a reduction in the volatility associated with the Company’s overall asbestos exposure as the overall asbestos environment has evolved from one dominated by exposure to significant litigation risks, particularly coverage disputes relating to policyholders in bankruptcy who were asserting that their claims were not subject to the aggregate limits contained in their policies, to an environment primarily driven by a frequency of litigation related to individuals with mesothelioma. The Company’s overall view of the current underlying asbestos environment is essentially unchanged from recent periods, and there remains a high degree of uncertainty with respect to future exposure to asbestos claims.
Net asbestos paid loss and loss expenses in 2022, 2021 and 2020 were $245 million, $221 million and $237 million, respectively. Approximately 2%, 9% and 1% of total net paid losses in 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively, related to policyholders with whom the Company entered into settlement agreements that limit those policyholders' ability to present future claims to the Company.
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The following table displays activity for asbestos losses and loss expenses and reserves:
| (at and for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beginning reserves: | |||||||||||
| Gross | $ | 1,687 | $ | 1,668 | $ | 1,601 | |||||
| Ceded | (346) | (330) | (322) | ||||||||
| Net | 1,341 | 1,338 | 1,279 | ||||||||
| Incurred losses and loss expenses: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 287 | 287 | 362 | ||||||||
| Ceded | (75) | (62) | (67) | ||||||||
| Net | 212 | 225 | 295 | ||||||||
| Paid loss and loss expenses: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 298 | 267 | 295 | ||||||||
| Ceded | (53) | (46) | (58) | ||||||||
| Net | 245 | 221 | 237 | ||||||||
| Foreign exchange and other: | |||||||||||
| Gross | (2) | (1) | — | ||||||||
| Ceded | (1) | — | 1 | ||||||||
| Net | (3) | (1) | 1 | ||||||||
| Ending reserves: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 1,674 | 1,687 | 1,668 | ||||||||
| Ceded | (369) | (346) | (330) | ||||||||
| Net | $ | 1,305 | $ | 1,341 | $ | 1,338 |
ENVIRONMENTAL CLAIMS AND LITIGATION
The Company has received and continues to receive claims from policyholders who allege that they are liable for injury or damage arising out of the alleged storage, emissions or disposal of toxic substances, frequently under policies issued prior to the mid-1980s. These claims are mainly brought pursuant to various state or federal statutes that require a liable party to undertake or pay for environmental remediation. For example, the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) enables private parties as well as federal and state governments to take action with respect to releases and threatened releases of hazardous substances. This federal statute permits the recovery of response costs from some liable parties and may require liable parties to undertake their own remedial action. Liability under these statutes may be joint and several with other responsible parties. The Company has also been, and continues to be, involved in litigation involving insurance coverage issues pertaining to environmental claims. The Company believes that some court decisions pertaining to environmental claims have interpreted the insurance coverage to be broader than the original intent of the insurers and policyholders. For more information regarding environmental claims and litigation, see note 8 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
In 2022, 2021 and 2020, the Company increased its net environmental reserves by $132 million, $89 million and $54 million, respectively. Net environmental paid loss and loss expenses in 2022, 2021 and 2020 were $82 million, $75 million and $69 million, respectively. Net environmental reserves were $371 million, $321 million and $307 million at December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively.
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADEQUACY OF ASBESTOS AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESERVES
As a result of the processes and procedures discussed above, management believes that the reserves carried for asbestos and environmental claims are appropriately established based upon known facts, current law and management’s judgment. However, the uncertainties surrounding the final resolution of these claims continue, and it is difficult to determine the ultimate exposure for asbestos and environmental claims and related litigation. As a result, these reserves are subject to revision as new information becomes available and as claims develop. The continuing uncertainties include, without limitation:
•the risks and lack of predictability inherent in complex litigation;
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•a further increase in the cost to resolve, and/or the number of, asbestos and environmental claims beyond that which is anticipated;
•the emergence of a greater number of asbestos claims than anticipated as a result of extended life expectancies resulting from medical advances and lifestyle improvements;
•the role of any umbrella or excess policies we have issued;
•the resolution or adjudication of disputes concerning coverage for asbestos and environmental claims in a manner inconsistent with our previous assessment of these disputes;
•the number and outcome of direct actions against us;
•future developments pertaining to our ability to recover reinsurance for asbestos and environmental claims;
•any impact on asbestos defendants we insure due to the bankruptcy of other asbestos defendants;
•the unavailability of other insurance sources potentially available to policyholders, whether through exhaustion of policy limits or through the insolvency of other participating insurers; and
•uncertainties arising from the insolvency or bankruptcy of policyholders.
Changes in the legal, regulatory and legislative environment may impact the future resolution of asbestos and environmental claims and result in adverse loss reserve development. The emergence of a greater number of asbestos or environmental claims beyond that which is anticipated may result in adverse loss reserve development. Changes in applicable legislation and future court and regulatory decisions and interpretations, including the outcome of legal challenges to legislative and/or judicial reforms establishing medical criteria for the pursuit of asbestos claims, could affect the settlement of asbestos and environmental claims. It is also difficult to predict the ultimate outcome of complex coverage disputes until settlement negotiations near completion and significant legal questions are resolved or, failing settlement, until the dispute is adjudicated. This is particularly the case with policyholders in bankruptcy where negotiations often involve a large number of claimants and other parties and require court approval to be effective. As part of its continuing analysis of asbestos and environmental reserves, the Company continues to study the implications of these and other developments.
Because of the uncertainties set forth above, additional liabilities may arise for amounts in excess of the Company’s current reserves. In addition, the Company’s estimate of claims and claim adjustment expenses may change. These additional liabilities or increases in estimates, or a range of either, cannot now be reasonably estimated and could result in income statement charges that could be material to the Company’s operating results in future periods.
INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
The Company’s invested assets at December 31, 2022 were $80.45 billion, of which 93% was invested in fixed maturity and short-term investments, 1% in equity securities, 1% in real estate investments and 5% in other investments. Because the primary purpose of the investment portfolio is to fund future claims payments, the Company employs a thoughtful investment philosophy that focuses on appropriate risk-adjusted returns. A significant majority of funds available for investment are deployed in a widely diversified portfolio of high quality, liquid, taxable U.S. government, tax-exempt and taxable U.S. municipal and taxable corporate and U.S. agency mortgage-backed bonds.
The carrying value of the Company’s fixed maturity portfolio at December 31, 2022 was $71.16 billion. The Company closely monitors the duration of its fixed maturity investments, and investment purchases and sales are executed with the objective of having adequate funds available to satisfy the Company’s insurance and debt obligations. The weighted average credit quality of the Company’s fixed maturity portfolio, both including and excluding U.S. Treasury securities, was “Aa2” at both December 31, 2022 and 2021. Below investment grade securities represented 1.3% and 1.4% of the total fixed maturity investment portfolio at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. The weighted average effective duration of fixed maturities and short-term securities was 4.6 (4.8 excluding short-term securities) at December 31, 2022 and 4.2 (4.4 excluding short-term securities) at December 31, 2021.
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The carrying values of investments in fixed maturities classified as available for sale at December 31, 2022 and 2021 were as follows:
| 2022 | 2021 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (at December 31, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | ||||||||
| U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government and government agencies and authorities | $ | 5,438 | Aaa/Aa1 | $ | 3,562 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||
| Obligations of U.S. states, municipalities and political subdivisions: | ||||||||||||
| Local general obligation | 17,823 | Aaa/Aa1 | 19,667 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Revenue | 10,198 | Aaa/Aa1 | 11,940 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| State general obligation | 1,019 | Aaa/Aa1 | 1,223 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Pre-refunded | 2,339 | Aaa/Aa1 | 4,032 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Total obligations of U.S. states, municipalities and political subdivisions | 31,379 | 36,862 | ||||||||||
| Debt securities issued by foreign governments | 994 | Aaa/Aa1 | 1,041 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Mortgage-backed securities, collateralized mortgage obligations and pass-through securities | 1,991 | Aaa/Aa1 | 1,817 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Corporate and all other bonds: | ||||||||||||
| Financial: | ||||||||||||
| Bank | 4,505 | A1 | 4,473 | A1 | ||||||||
| Insurance | 1,628 | Aa3 | 1,626 | Aa3 | ||||||||
| Finance/leasing | 47 | Ba2 | 34 | Ba3 | ||||||||
| Brokerage and asset management | 136 | A1 | 101 | Aa3 | ||||||||
| Total financial | 6,316 | 6,234 | ||||||||||
| Industrial | 17,237 | A3 | 19,459 | A3 | ||||||||
| Public utility | 4,064 | A2 | 4,706 | A2 | ||||||||
| Canadian municipal securities | 1,523 | Aa1 | 1,687 | Aa2 | ||||||||
| Sovereign corporate securities (2) | 559 | Aaa | 607 | Aaa | ||||||||
| Commercial mortgage-backed securities and project loans (3) | 1,136 | Aaa | 1,304 | Aaa | ||||||||
| Asset-backed and other | 523 | Aa1 | 531 | Aa1 | ||||||||
| Total corporate and all other bonds | 31,358 | 34,528 | ||||||||||
| Total fixed maturities | $ | 71,160 | Aa2 | $ | 77,810 | Aa2 |
___________________________________________
(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist.
(2)Sovereign corporate securities include corporate securities that are backed by a government and include sovereign banks and securities issued under the Federal Ship Financing Programs.
(3)Included in commercial mortgage-backed securities and project loans at December 31, 2022 and 2021 were $131 million and $207 million of securities guaranteed by the U.S. government, respectively.
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The following table sets forth the Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio rated using external ratings agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist:
| (at December 31, 2022, in millions) | Carrying Value | Percent of Total Carrying Value | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quality Rating: | |||||||
| Aaa | $ | 31,688 | 44.6 | % | |||
| Aa | 16,217 | 22.8 | |||||
| A | 13,333 | 18.7 | |||||
| Baa | 8,992 | 12.6 | |||||
| Total investment grade | 70,230 | 98.7 | |||||
| Below investment grade | 930 | 1.3 | |||||
| Total fixed maturities | $ | 71,160 | 100.0 | % |
Obligations of U.S. States, Municipalities and Political Subdivisions
The Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio at December 31, 2022 and 2021 included $31.38 billion and $36.86 billion, respectively, of securities which are obligations of U.S. states, municipalities and political subdivisions (collectively referred to as the municipal bond portfolio). The municipal bond portfolio is diversified across the United States, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico and includes general obligation and revenue bonds issued by states, cities, counties, school districts and similar issuers. Included in the municipal bond portfolio at December 31, 2022 and 2021 were $2.34 billion and $4.03 billion, respectively, of pre-refunded bonds, which are bonds for which U.S. states or municipalities have established irrevocable trusts, almost exclusively comprised of U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government and government agencies and authorities. These trusts were created to fund the payment of principal and interest due under the bonds. The irrevocable trusts are verified as to their sufficiency by an independent verification agent of the underwriter, issuer or trustee. All of the Company’s holdings of securities issued by Puerto Rico and related entities have either been pre-refunded and therefore are defeased by U.S. Treasury securities or have FHA guarantees subject to federal appropriation.
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The following table shows the geographic distribution of the $29.04 billion of municipal bonds at December 31, 2022 that were not pre-refunded:
| (at December 31, 2022, in millions) | State General Obligation | Local General Obligation | Revenue | Total Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality(1) | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State: | ||||||||||||||||||
| Texas | $ | 38 | $ | 2,928 | $ | 1,457 | $ | 4,423 | Aaa | |||||||||
| California | — | 1,905 | 453 | 2,358 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Virginia | 41 | 967 | 780 | 1,788 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Washington | 114 | 1,140 | 305 | 1,559 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| North Carolina | 167 | 756 | 462 | 1,385 | Aaa | |||||||||||||
| Minnesota | 142 | 954 | 175 | 1,271 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Colorado | — | 775 | 364 | 1,139 | Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Massachusetts | — | 202 | 843 | 1,045 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Maryland | 31 | 866 | 126 | 1,023 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Wisconsin | 68 | 769 | 97 | 934 | Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Tennessee | 7 | 807 | 88 | 902 | Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Florida | 50 | 148 | 603 | 801 | Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Georgia | 141 | 541 | 51 | 733 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| All others (2) | 220 | 5,065 | 4,394 | 9,679 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 1,019 | $ | 17,823 | $ | 10,198 | $ | 29,040 | Aaa/Aa1 |
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(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist. Ratings shown are the higher of the rating of the underlying issuer or the insurer in the case of securities enhanced by third-party insurance for the payment of principal and interest in the event of issuer default.
(2)No other single state accounted for 2.5% or more of the total non-pre-refunded municipal bonds.
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The following table displays the funding sources for the $10.20 billion of municipal bonds identified as revenue bonds in the foregoing table at December 31, 2022:
| (at December 31, 2022, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality(1) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source: | ||||||
| Water | $ | 2,830 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||
| Higher education | 2,563 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Sewer | 1,005 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Power utilities | 703 | Aa1 | ||||
| Special tax | 486 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Transit | 355 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Highway tolls | 227 | Aa2 | ||||
| Industrial | 183 | Aa3 | ||||
| Fuel sales | 181 | Aa1 | ||||
| Health care | 177 | Aa2 | ||||
| Housing | 30 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Lease | 30 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Natural gas | 10 | Aa2 | ||||
| Lottery | 7 | Aa1 | ||||
| Other revenue sources | 1,411 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Total | $ | 10,198 | Aaa/Aa1 |
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(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist. Ratings shown are the higher of the rating of the underlying issuer or the insurer in the case of securities enhanced by third-party insurance for the payment of principal and interest in the event of issuer default.
The Company bases its investment decision on the underlying credit characteristics of the municipal security. The weighted average credit rating of the municipal bond portfolio was “Aaa/Aa1” at December 31, 2022.
Debt Securities Issued by Foreign Governments
The following table shows the geographic distribution of the Company’s long-term fixed maturity investments in debt securities issued by foreign governments at December 31, 2022:
| (at December 31, 2022, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign Government: | ||||||
| Canada | $ | 800 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||
| United Kingdom | 177 | Aa3 | ||||
| All others (2,3) | 17 | Aa1 | ||||
| Total | $ | 994 | Aaa/Aa1 |
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(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist.
(2)The Company does not have direct exposure to sovereign debt issued by the Republic of Ireland, Italy, Greece, Portugal or Spain.
(3) No other country accounted for 2.5% or more of total debt securities issued by foreign governments.
The following table shows the Company’s Eurozone exposure at December 31, 2022 to all debt securities issued by foreign governments, financial companies, sovereign corporations (including sovereign banks) whose securities are backed by the respective country’s government and all other corporate securities (comprised of industrial corporations and utility companies) which could be affected if economic conditions deteriorated due to a prolonged recession:
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| Corporate Securities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt Securities Issued by Foreign Governments | Financial | Sovereign Corporates | All Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| (at December 31, 2022, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Eurozone Periphery | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Spain | $ | — | — | $ | 57 | Aa3 | $ | — | — | $ | 6 | Baa3 | ||||||||||||||
| Ireland | — | — | — | — | — | — | 151 | Baa2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Italy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Greece | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Portugal | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Subtotal | — | 57 | — | 157 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Eurozone Non-Periphery | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Germany | 10 | Aaa | — | — | 275 | Aaa/Aa1 | 435 | A3 | ||||||||||||||||||
| France | 75 | Aa2 | — | — | — | — | 537 | A1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Netherlands | — | — | 92 | A1 | 104 | Aaa | 184 | A2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Finland | — | — | 44 | Aa3 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Belgium | — | — | — | — | — | — | 113 | Baa1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Austria | — | — | — | — | 137 | Aa2 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Subtotal | 85 | 136 | 516 | 1,269 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 85 | $ | 193 | $ | 516 | $ | 1,426 |
___________________________________________
(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist. The table includes $487 million of short-term securities which have the highest ratings issued by external rating agencies for short-term issuances. For purposes of this table, the short-term securities, which are rated “A-1+” and/or “P-1,” are included as “Aaa” rated securities.
In addition to fixed maturities noted in the foregoing table, the Company has exposure totaling $289 million to private equity limited partnerships and real estate partnerships (both of which are included in other investments in the Company’s consolidated balance sheet) whose primary investing focus is across Europe. The Company has unfunded commitments totaling $169 million to these partnerships.
Mortgage-Backed Securities, Collateralized Mortgage Obligations and Pass-Through Securities
The Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio at December 31, 2022 and 2021 included $1.99 billion and $1.82 billion, respectively, of residential mortgage-backed securities, including pass-through-securities and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), all of which are subject to prepayment risk (either shortening or lengthening of duration). While prepayment risk for securities and its effect on income cannot be fully controlled, particularly when interest rates move dramatically, the Company’s investment strategy generally favors securities that reduce this risk within expected interest rate ranges. The Company makes investments in residential CMOs that are either guaranteed by GNMA, FNMA or FHLMC, or if not guaranteed, are senior or super-senior positions within their respective securitizations. Both guaranteed and non-guaranteed residential CMOs allocate the distribution of payments from the underlying mortgages among different classes of bondholders. In addition, non-guaranteed residential CMOs provide structures that allocate the impact of credit losses to different classes of bondholders. Senior and super-senior CMOs are protected, to varying degrees, from credit losses as those losses are initially allocated to subordinated bondholders. The Company’s investment strategy is to purchase CMO tranches that are expected to offer the most favorable return given the Company’s assessment of associated risks. The Company does not purchase residual interests in CMOs. For more information regarding the Company’s investments in residential mortgage-backed securities, see note 3 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities and Project Loans
At December 31, 2022 and 2021, the Company held commercial mortgage-backed securities (including FHA project loans) of $1.14 billion and $1.30 billion, respectively. For more information regarding the Company’s investments in commercial mortgage-backed securities, see note 3 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
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Equity Securities, Real Estate and Short-Term Investments
See note 1 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for further information about these invested asset classes.
Other Investments
The Company also invests in private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships, and joint ventures. These asset classes have historically provided a higher return than investments in fixed maturities but are subject to more volatility. The Company also enters into certain derivative financial instruments from time to time that are reported as part of other investments. At December 31, 2022 and 2021, the carrying value of the Company's other investments was $4.07 billion and $3.86 billion, respectively. The Company has unfunded commitments to private equity limited partnerships, real estate partnerships and others in which it invests. These commitments totaled $1.80 billion and $1.70 billion at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. It is the opinion of the Company’s management that the Company has adequate liquidity to meet these commitments.
Securities Lending
The Company has, from time to time, engaged in securities lending activities from which it generates net investment income by lending certain of its investments to other institutions for short periods of time. At December 31, 2022 and 2021, the Company had $445 million and $253 million, respectively, of securities on loan, respectively, as part of a tri-party lending agreement. The average monthly balance of securities on loan during 2022 and 2021 was $347 million and $329 million, respectively. Borrowers of these securities provide collateral equal to at least 102% of the market value of the loaned securities plus accrued interest. The Company did not incur any investment losses in its securities lending program for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021.
Lloyd’s Trust Deposits
The Company meets its capital requirements to support its underwriting at Lloyd’s using a combination of the share capital and retained earnings of the Company's subsidiaries participating in Lloyd's, trust deposits and uncollateralized letters of credit. Securities with a fair value of approximately $28 million and $33 million held by a wholly-owned subsidiary at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively, and $58 million and $34 million held by TRV at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively, were pledged into Lloyd’s trust accounts to provide a portion of the Lloyd’s capital requirements. For more information regarding the Company’s utilization of uncollateralized letters of credit, see “Liquidity and Capital Resources” herein.
Net Unrealized Investment Gains (Losses)
The net unrealized investment gains (losses) that were included in shareholders' equity were as follows:
| (at December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed maturities | $ | (6,217) | $ | 3,062 | $ | 5,175 | |||||
| Other | (3) | (2) | — | ||||||||
| Unrealized investment gains (losses) before tax | (6,220) | 3,060 | 5,175 | ||||||||
| Tax expense (benefit) | (1,322) | 645 | 1,101 | ||||||||
| Net unrealized investment gains (losses) included in shareholders' equity at end of year | $ | (4,898) | $ | 2,415 | $ | 4,074 |
Net unrealized investment losses included in shareholders’ equity were $4.90 billion at December 31, 2022 compared with net unrealized investment gains of $2.42 billion at December 31, 2021. At December 31, 2022, the Company had $2.18 billion fixed maturity investments reported at fair value for which fair value was less than 80% of amortized cost. At December 31, 2021, the Company had no fixed maturity investments reported at fair value for which fair value was less than 80% of amortized cost. These year-over-year changes were driven by rising interest rates. Since the Company generally holds its high-quality fixed maturity investments to maturity, these net unrealized losses are considered temporary in nature and are not expected to result in significant realized losses. In addition, given the temporary nature of net unrealized losses combined with the Company’s strong operating cash flows, which include income received on investments and the proceeds received upon maturity of the investments, the net unrealized investment loss is not expected to meaningfully impact the Company’s assessment of capital adequacy or liquidity. Equity securities, which include common and non-redeemable preferred stocks, are reported at fair value with changes in fair value recognized in net income.
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For fixed maturity investments where fair value is less than the carrying value and the Company did not reach a decision to impair, the Company continues to have the intent and ability to hold such investments to a projected recovery in value, which may not be until maturity.
At December 31, 2022 and 2021, below investment grade securities comprised 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively, of the fair value of the Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio. Included in below investment grade securities at December 31, 2022 were securities in an unrealized loss position that, in the aggregate, had an amortized cost of $937 million and a fair value of $844 million, resulting in a net pre-tax unrealized investment loss of $93 million. These securities in an unrealized loss position represented 1% of both the amortized cost and fair value of the fixed maturity portfolio at December 31, 2022 and accounted for 1.5% of the total gross pre-tax unrealized investment loss in the fixed maturity portfolio at December 31, 2022.
Impairment Charges
Impairment charges included in net realized investment gains (losses) in the consolidated statement of income were $38 million, $2 million and $55 million for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively. See note 3 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for further information.
Purchases and Sales of Investment Securities
Purchases and sales of investments are based on cash requirements, the characteristics of the insurance liabilities and current market conditions. The Company identifies investments to be sold to achieve its primary investment goals of assuring the Company’s ability to meet policyholder obligations as well as to optimize investment returns, given these obligations.
During the year ended December 31, 2022, the Company incurred pre-tax realized losses of $99 million on the sale of fixed maturity investments having a fair value of $2.07 billion.
CATASTROPHE MODELING
The Company uses various analyses and methods, including proprietary and third-party modeling processes, to make underwriting and reinsurance decisions designed to manage its exposure to catastrophic events. There are no industry-standard methodologies or assumptions for projecting catastrophe exposure. Accordingly, catastrophe estimates provided by different insurers may not be comparable.
The Company actively monitors and evaluates changes in third-party models and, when necessary, calibrates the catastrophe risk model estimates delivered via its own proprietary modeling processes. The Company considers historical loss experience, recent events, underwriting practices, market share analyses, external scientific analysis and various other factors, including non-modeled losses, to refine its proprietary view of catastrophe risk. These proprietary models are updated regularly as new information and techniques emerge.
Based on the proprietary and third-party models utilized by the Company, the tables below set forth, as of December 31, 2022, the probabilities that estimated losses, comprising claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses (but excluding unallocated claim adjustment expenses), from a single event occurring in a one-year timeframe will equal or exceed the indicated loss amounts (expressed in dollars, net of tax, and as a percentage of the Company’s common equity). For example, on the basis described below the tables, the Company estimates that there is a one percent chance that the Company’s loss from a single U.S. and Canadian hurricane in a one-year timeframe would equal or exceed $2.1 billion, or 8% of the Company’s common equity at December 31, 2022.
| Dollars (in billions) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likelihood of Exceedance (1) | Single U.S. and Canadian Hurricane | Single U.S. and Canadian Earthquake | |||||
| 2.0% (1-in-50) | $ | 1.7 | $ | 0.6 | |||
| 1.0% (1-in-100) | $ | 2.1 | $ | 1.1 | |||
| 0.4% (1-in-250) | $ | 3.4 | $ | 1.9 | |||
| 0.1% (1-in-1,000) | $ | 7.4 | $ | 3.1 |
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| Percentage of Common Equity (2) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likelihood of Exceedance | Single U.S. and Canadian Hurricane | Single U.S. and Canadian Earthquake | ||||
| 2.0% (1-in-50) | 6 | % | 2 | % | ||
| 1.0% (1-in-100) | 8 | % | 4 | % | ||
| 0.4% (1-in-250) | 13 | % | 7 | % | ||
| 0.1% (1-in-1,000) | 28 | % | 12 | % |
___________________________________________
(1) An event that has, for example, a 2% likelihood of exceedance is sometimes described as a “1-in-50 year event.” As noted above, however, the probabilities in the table represent the likelihood of losses from a single event equaling or exceeding the indicated threshold loss amount in a one-year timeframe, not over a multi-year timeframe. Also, because the probabilities relate to a single event, the probabilities do not address the likelihood of more than one event occurring in a particular period, and, therefore, the amounts do not address potential aggregate catastrophe losses occurring in a one-year timeframe.
(2) The percentage of common equity is calculated by dividing (a) indicated loss amounts in dollars by (b) total common equity excluding net unrealized investment gains and losses, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity. Net unrealized investment gains and losses can be significantly impacted by both discretionary and other economic factors and are not necessarily indicative of operating trends. Accordingly, the Company’s management uses the percentage of common equity calculated on this basis as a metric to evaluate the potential impact of a single hurricane or single earthquake on the Company’s financial position for purposes of making underwriting and reinsurance decisions.
The threshold loss amounts in the tables above, which are based on the Company’s in-force portfolio at December 31, 2022 and catastrophe reinsurance program at January 1, 2023, are net of reinsurance, after-tax and exclude unallocated claim adjustment expenses, which historically have been less than 10% of loss estimates. For further information regarding the Company’s reinsurance, see “Item 1-Business-Reinsurance.” The amounts for hurricanes reflect U.S. and Canadian exposures and include property exposures, property residual market exposures and an adjustment for certain non-property exposures. The hurricane loss amounts are based on the Company’s catastrophe risk model estimates and include losses from the hurricane hazards of wind and storm surge. The amounts for earthquakes reflect U.S. and Canadian property and workers’ compensation exposures. These loss amounts include the effects of exposure growth, inflation and modeling updates based on recent trends and scientific analysis. The Company does not believe that the inclusion of hurricane or earthquake losses arising from other geographical areas or other exposures would materially change the estimated threshold loss amounts.
Catastrophe modeling relies upon inputs based on experience, science, engineering and history. These inputs reflect a significant amount of judgment and are subject to changes which may result in volatility in the modeled output. Catastrophe modeling output may also fail to account for risks that are outside the range of normal probability or are otherwise unforeseeable. Catastrophe modeling assumptions include, among others, the portion of purchased reinsurance that is collectible after a catastrophic event, which may prove to be materially incorrect. Consequently, catastrophe modeling estimates are subject to significant uncertainty. In the tables above, the uncertainty associated with the estimated threshold loss amounts increases significantly as the likelihood of exceedance decreases. In other words, in the case of a relatively more remote event (e.g., 1-in-1,000), the estimated threshold loss amount is relatively less reliable. Actual losses from an event could materially exceed the indicated threshold loss amount. In addition, more than one such event could occur in any period.
Moreover, the Company is exposed to the risk of material losses from other than property and workers’ compensation coverages arising out of hurricanes and earthquakes, and it is exposed to catastrophe losses from perils other than hurricanes and earthquakes, such as tornadoes and other windstorms, hail, wildfires, severe winter weather, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, solar flares and other naturally-occurring events, as well as acts of terrorism and cyber events.
In addition, compared to models for hurricanes, models for earthquakes are less reliable due to there being a more limited number of significant historical events to analyze, while models for tornadoes, hail storms, wildfires and winter storms are newer and may be less reliable due to the highly random geographic nature and size of these events. Accordingly, these models may be less accurate in predicting risks and estimating losses. Further, changes in climate conditions could cause our underlying modeling data to be less predictive, thus limiting our ability to effectively evaluate and manage catastrophe risk. As compared to natural catastrophes, modeling for man-made catastrophes, such as terrorism and cyber events, is even more difficult and less reliable, and for some events (both natural and man-made), models are either in early stages of development and, therefore, not widely adopted, or are not available.
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For more information about the Company’s exposure to catastrophe losses, see “Item 1A-Risk Factors-High levels of catastrophe losses, including as a result of factors such as increased concentrations of insured exposures in catastrophe-prone areas, could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, our financial position and/or liquidity, and could adversely impact our ratings, our ability to raise capital and the availability and cost of reinsurance” and “Item 1A-Risk Factors- We may be adversely affected if our pricing and capital models provide materially different indications than actual results.”
CHANGING CLIMATE CONDITIONS
Severe weather events over the last two decades underscore the unpredictability of climate trends. For example, the frequency and/or severity of hurricane, tornado, hail and wildfire events in the United States have been more volatile during this time period. The insurance industry has experienced increased catastrophe losses due to a number of potential causal factors, including, in addition to weather/climate variability, aging infrastructure, more people living in, and moving to, high-risk areas, population growth in areas with weaker enforcement of building codes, urban expansion, an increase in the number of amenities included in, and average size of, a home and increased inflation, including as a result of post-event demand surge. We believe that changing climate conditions have also likely added to the frequency and severity of natural disasters and created additional uncertainty as to future trends and exposures. Climate studies by government agencies, academic institutions, catastrophe modeling organizations and other groups indicate that an increase in frequency and/or intensity of hurricanes, heavy precipitation events, flash flooding, sea level rise, droughts, heat waves and wildfires has occurred, and can be expected into the future. Understanding the potential impacts of changing climate conditions is important to the Company's business. Changing climate conditions are expected to evolve over decades. Importantly, because most of its policies renew annually, the Company is able to respond to these changes over time through adjustments to its underwriting strategy, product pricing and related policy terms and conditions, as appropriate. As an example, in recent years the Company has focused on enhancing the strategic management of its catastrophe exposure, adding experts in data science, meteorology, including climate and flood science, wind and structural engineering and geophysics, among others, to its catastrophe management organization. The Company has also established dedicated teams for each catastrophe peril, with the goal of developing industry-leading scientific and underwriting expertise. This expertise has been incorporated into the Company’s product development, risk selection, pricing, capital allocation and claim response.
The Company discusses how changing climate conditions may present other issues for its business under “Item 1A - Risk Factors.” and “Outlook.” For example, among other things:
•Increasingly unpredictable and severe weather conditions could result in increased frequency and severity of claims under policies issued by the Company. See “Item 1A—Risk Factors—High levels of catastrophe losses, including as a result of factors such as increased concentrations of insured exposures in catastrophe-prone areas and changing climate conditions, could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, our financial position and/or liquidity, and could adversely impact our ratings, our ability to raise capital and the availability and cost of reinsurance” and “-Outlook-Underwriting Gain/Loss.” Moreover, the Company's catastrophe models may be less reliable due to the increased unpredictability in frequency and severity of severe weather events, emerging trends in climate conditions and regulatory responses to catastrophe events not being appropriately reflected in the models, in addition to the other factors mentioned above. Accordingly, the Company may be subject to increased losses from catastrophes and other weather-related events.
•Changing climate conditions could also impact the creditworthiness of issuers of securities in which the Company invests. For example, water supply adequacy could impact the creditworthiness of bond issuers with significant assets or business activities in the Southwestern United States; more frequent and/or severe hurricanes could impact the creditworthiness of issuers with significant assets or business activities in the Southeastern United States, among other areas; and increased regulation adopted in response to potential changes in climate conditions could impact the creditworthiness of issuers affected by such regulations. In addition, as issuers of securities in which the Company invests become increasingly focused on mitigating the potential environmental impact of their operations, the costs associated with such initiatives could affect the business models and realized returns of such issuers. See “Item 1A—Risk Factors—Our investment portfolio is subject to credit and interest rate risk, and may suffer reduced or low returns or material realized or unrealized losses.”
•Increased regulation adopted in response to potential changes in climate conditions may impact the Company and its customers, including state insurance regulations that could impact the Company’s ability to manage property exposures in areas vulnerable to significant climate driven losses. For example, state laws have been passed that restrict a carrier's ability to cancel or non-renew certain policies within or adjacent to declared state of emergency zip codes and mandate discounts for risk mitigation practices that may not be effective. If the Company is unable to implement risk-based pricing, modify policy terms or reduce exposures to the extent necessary to address rising losses
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related to catastrophes and smaller scale weather events (should those increased losses occur), its business may be adversely affected. See “Item 1—Business—U.S. State and Federal Regulation—Regulatory and Legislative Responses to Catastrophes.” In addition, climate change regulation could increase the Company’s customers’ costs of doing business. For example, insureds faced with carbon management regulatory requirements may have less available capital for investment in loss prevention and safety features which may, over time, increase loss exposures. Increased regulation may also result in reduced economic activity, which would decrease the amount of insurable assets and businesses, and increased claim costs, to the extent such regulations require that damaged homes or businesses be rebuilt according to more expensive specifications.
•The full range of potential liability exposures related to changing climate conditions continues to evolve. For example, from time to time third parties sue our policyholders alleging that they caused or contributed to changing climate conditions. Through the Company’s Enterprise Casualty Emerging Risk Committee and its Committee on Climate, Energy and the Environment, the Company works with its business units and corporate groups, as appropriate, to identify and try to assess climate change-related liability issues, which are continually evolving and often hard to fully evaluate. The Company regularly reviews emerging issues, including changing climate conditions, to consider potential changes to its modeling and the use of such modeling, as well as to help determine the need for new underwriting strategies, coverage modifications or new products. See “Item 1A—Risk Factors—The effects of emerging claim and coverage issues on our business are uncertain, and court decisions or legislative changes that take place after we issue our policies can result in an unexpected increase in the number of claims and have a material adverse impact on our results of operations.”
REINSURANCE RECOVERABLES
The Company reinsures a portion of the risks it underwrites in order to control its exposure to losses. For additional discussion regarding the Company’s reinsurance coverage, see “Part I—Item 1—Business—Reinsurance.”
The following table summarizes the composition of the Company’s reinsurance recoverables:
| (at December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross reinsurance recoverables on paid and unpaid claims and claim adjustment expenses | $ | 3,792 | $ | 3,931 | |||
| Gross structured settlements | 2,802 | 2,900 | |||||
| Mandatory pools and associations | 1,601 | 1,762 | |||||
| Gross reinsurance recoverables | 8,195 | 8,593 | |||||
| Allowance for estimated uncollectible reinsurance | (132) | (141) | |||||
| Net reinsurance recoverables | $ | 8,063 | $ | 8,452 |
Net reinsurance recoverables at December 31, 2022 decreased by $389 million from December 31, 2021, primarily reflecting cash collections and decreases in mandatory pools and associations and structured settlements in 2022.
The following table presents the Company’s top five reinsurer groups by reinsurance recoverable at December 31, 2022 (in millions). Also included is the A.M. Best rating of the Company's predominant reinsurer from each such reinsurer group at February 16, 2023:
| Reinsurer Group | Reinsurance Recoverable | A.M. Best Rating of Group’s Predominant Reinsurer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Re Group | $ | 561 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | ||||
| Berkshire Hathaway | 515 | A++ | highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Munich Re Group | 318 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Axa Group | 152 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| PartnerRe Group | 140 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings |
At December 31, 2022, the Company held $1.00 billion of collateral in the form of letters of credit, funds and trust agreements held to fully or partially collateralize certain reinsurance recoverables.
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Included in net reinsurance recoverables are amounts related to structured settlements, which are annuities purchased from various life insurance companies to settle certain personal physical injury claims, of which workers’ compensation claims comprise a significant portion. In cases where the Company did not receive a release from the claimant, the amount due from the life insurance company related to the structured settlement is included in the Company’s consolidated balance sheet as a reinsurance recoverable and the related claim cost is included in the liability for claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, as the Company retains the contingent liability to the claimant. If it is expected that the life insurance company is not able to pay, the Company would recognize an impairment of the related reinsurance recoverable if, and to the extent, the purchased annuities are not covered by state guaranty associations. In the event that the life insurance company fails to make the required annuity payments, the Company would be required to make such payments. The following table presents the Company’s top five groups by structured settlements at December 31, 2022 (in millions). Also included is the A.M. Best rating of the Company’s predominant insurer from each such insurer group at February 16, 2023:
| Group | Structured Settlements | A.M. Best Rating of Group’s Predominant Insurer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity & Guaranty Life Group | $ | 699 | A- | fourth highest of 16 ratings | ||||
| Genworth Financial Group | 310 | B- | eighth highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| John Hancock Group | 249 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Symetra Financial Corporation | 215 | A | third highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Brighthouse Financial, Inc. | 207 | A | third highest of 16 ratings |
The Company considers the ratings and related outlook assigned to reinsurance companies and life insurance companies by various independent ratings agencies in assessing the adequacy of its allowance for uncollectible amounts.
OUTLOOK
The following discussion provides outlook information for certain key drivers of the Company’s results of operations and capital position.
Premiums. The Company’s earned premiums are a function of net written premium volume. Net written premiums comprise both renewal business and new business and are recognized as earned premium over the term of the underlying policies. When business renews, the amount of net written premiums associated with that business may increase or decrease (renewal premium change) as a result of increases or decreases in rate and/or insured exposures, which the Company considers as a measure of units of exposure (such as the number and value of vehicles or properties insured). Net written premiums from both renewal and new business, and therefore earned premiums, are impacted by competitive market conditions as well as general economic conditions, which, particularly in the case of Business Insurance, affect audit premium adjustments, policy endorsements and mid-term cancellations. Net written premiums may also be impacted by the structure of reinsurance programs and related costs, as well as changes in foreign currency exchange rates.
Overall, the Company expects that retention levels (the amount of expiring premium that renews, before the impact of renewal premium changes) will remain strong by historical standards during 2023.
Property and casualty insurance market conditions are expected to remain competitive during 2023 for new business. In each of the Company’s business segments, new business generally has less of an impact on underwriting profitability than renewal business, given the volume of new business relative to renewal business. However, in periods of meaningful increases in new business, despite its positive impact on underwriting gains over time, the impact of higher new business levels may negatively impact the combined ratio for a period of time. In periods of meaningful decreases in new business, despite its negative impact on underwriting gains over time, the impact of lower new business levels may positively impact the combined ratio for a period of time.
Effective January 1, 2023, the Company entered into a quota share reinsurance agreement with subsidiaries of Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limited (Fidelis) pursuant to which the Company will assume 20% of the business written by Fidelis during 2023, subject to a loss ratio cap. The Company’s portion of net written premiums from Fidelis is expected to be approximately $550 million to $600 million for the full year and will be reported as part of the International results of Business Insurance. The Company also has a minority investment in Fidelis.
Underwriting Gain/Loss. The Company’s underwriting gain/loss can be significantly impacted by catastrophe losses and net favorable or unfavorable prior year reserve development, as well as underlying underwriting margins. Underlying underwriting margins can be impacted by a number of factors, including variability in non-catastrophe weather, large loss and other loss
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activity; changes in current period loss estimates resulting from prior period loss development; changes in loss cost trends; changes in business mix; changes in reinsurance coverages and/or costs; premium adjustments; and variability in expenses and assessments.
Catastrophe losses and non-catastrophe weather-related losses are inherently unpredictable from period to period. The Company’s results of operations could be adversely impacted if significant catastrophe and non-catastrophe weather-related losses were to occur.
On average for the ten-year period ended December 31, 2022, the Company experienced approximately 41% of its annual catastrophe losses during the second quarter, primarily arising out of severe wind and hail storms, including tornadoes. Hurricanes, wildfires and winter storms tend to happen at other times of the year and can also have a material impact on the Company's results of operations. Catastrophe losses incurred in a particular quarter in any given year may differ materially from historical experience. In addition, most of the Company's reinsurance programs renew on January 1 or July 1 of each year, and, therefore, any changes to the availability, cost or coverage terms of such programs will be effective after such dates.
Over much of the past decade, the Company’s results have included significant amounts of net favorable prior year reserve development driven by better than expected loss experience. However, given the inherent uncertainty in estimating claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, loss experience could develop such that the Company recognizes in future periods higher or lower levels of favorable prior year reserve development, no favorable prior year reserve development or unfavorable prior year reserve development. In addition, the ongoing review of prior year claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, or other changes in current period circumstances, may result in the Company revising current year loss estimates upward or downward in future periods of the current year.
It is possible that changes in economic conditions, the supply chain, the labor market and geopolitical tensions, as well as steps taken by federal, state and/or local governments and the Federal Reserve, could lead to higher or lower inflation than the Company anticipated, which could in turn lead to an increase or decrease in the Company’s loss costs and the need to strengthen or reduce claims and claim adjustment expense reserves. These impacts of inflation on loss costs and claims and claim adjustment expense reserves could be more pronounced for those lines of business that require a relatively longer period of time to finalize and settle claims for a given accident year and, accordingly, are relatively more inflation sensitive. Labor shortages, higher costs of used vehicles and parts, and increased demand and decreased supply for raw materials are adversely impacting severity in our auto and property businesses and may continue to do so in future quarters. For a further discussion, see “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors—If actual claims exceed our claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, or if changes in the estimated level of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves are necessary, including as a result of, among other things, changes in the legal/tort, regulatory and economic environments in which the Company operates, our financial results could be materially and adversely affected.”
The Company’s results of operations may be impacted by a number of other factors, including an economic slowdown, a recession, financial market volatility, supply chain disruptions, monetary and fiscal policy measures (including future actions or inactions of the United States government related to the “debt-ceiling”), heightened geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates, the political and regulatory environment, changes to the U.S. Federal budget and potential changes in tax laws.
Investment Portfolio. The Company expects to continue to focus its investment strategy on maintaining a high-quality investment portfolio and a relatively short average effective duration. The weighted average effective duration of fixed maturities and short-term securities was 4.6 (4.8 excluding short-term securities) at December 31, 2022. From time to time, the Company enters into short positions in U.S. Treasury futures contracts to manage the duration of its fixed maturity portfolio. At December 31, 2022, the Company had no open U.S. Treasury futures contracts. The Company regularly evaluates its investment alternatives and mix. Currently, the majority of the Company’s investments are comprised of a widely diversified portfolio of high-quality, liquid, taxable U.S. government, tax-exempt and taxable U.S. municipal and taxable corporate and U.S. agency mortgage-backed bonds.
The Company also invests much smaller amounts in equity securities, real estate, and private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships, and joint ventures. These investment classes have the potential for higher returns but also the potential for greater volatility and higher degrees of risk, including less stable rates of return and less liquidity.
Approximately 26% of the fixed maturity portfolio is expected to mature over the next three years (including the early redemption of bonds, assuming interest rates (including credit spreads) do not rise significantly by applicable call dates). As a result, the overall yield on and composition of its portfolio could be meaningfully impacted by the types of investments available for reinvestment with the proceeds of maturing bonds.
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Net investment income is a material contributor to the Company’s results of operations. Based on our current expectations for slightly higher levels of fixed income investments and the impact of expected higher reinvestment yields on fixed income investments, the Company expects that after-tax net investment income from that portfolio will be approximately $515 million in the first quarter of 2023, increasing to an estimated $560 million by the fourth quarter of 2023. This expectation could be impacted by the direction of interest rates and disruptions in global financial markets. Included in other investments are private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships that are accounted for under the equity method of accounting and typically report their financial statement information to the Company one month to three months following the end of the reporting period. Accordingly, net investment income or loss from these other investments is generally reflected in the Company's financial statements on a quarter lag basis. The Company’s net investment income in future periods from its non-fixed income investment portfolio will be impacted, positively or negatively, by the performance of global financial markets.
The Company had net pre-tax realized investment losses of $204 million in 2022. Changes in global financial markets could result in net realized investment gains or losses in the Company’s investment portfolio.
The Company had a net pre-tax unrealized investment loss of $6.22 billion ($4.90 billion after-tax) in its fixed maturity investment portfolio at December 31, 2022, compared to a net pre-tax unrealized investment gain of $3.06 billion ($2.42 billion after-tax) at December 31, 2021, primarily due to the increases in interest rates during 2022. While the Company does not attempt to predict future interest rate movements, a rising interest rate environment reduces the market value of fixed maturity investments and, therefore, reduces shareholders’ equity, and a declining interest rate environment has the opposite effects. Since the Company generally holds its high-quality fixed maturity investments to maturity, the net unrealized loss discussed above is considered temporary in nature and is not expected to result in significant realized losses. In addition, given the temporary nature of net unrealized losses combined with the Company’s strong operating cash flows, which include income received on investments and the proceeds received upon maturity of the investments, the net unrealized investment loss is not expected to meaningfully impact the Company’s assessment of capital adequacy or liquidity. Additionally, disruptions in global financial markets could also impact the market value of the Company’s investment portfolio. The Company's investment portfolio has benefited from certain tax exemptions (primarily those related to interest from municipal bonds) and certain other tax laws, including, but not limited to, those governing dividends-received deductions and tax credits (such as foreign tax credits). Changes in these laws could adversely impact the value of the Company's investment portfolio. See “Our businesses are heavily regulated by the states and countries in which we conduct business, including licensing, market conduct and financial supervision, and changes in regulation, including higher tax rates, may reduce our profitability and limit our growth” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors.”
For further discussion of the Company’s investment portfolio, see “Investment Portfolio.” For a discussion of the risks to the Company’s business during or following a financial market disruption and risks to the Company’s investment portfolio, see the risk factors entitled “During or following a period of financial market disruption or an economic downturn, our business could be materially and adversely affected” and “Our investment portfolio is subject to credit and interest rate risk, and may suffer reduced or low returns or material realized or unrealized losses” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors.” For a discussion of the risks to the Company’s investments from foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations, see the risk factor entitled “We are subject to additional risks associated with our business outside the United States” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors” and see “Part II—Item 7A—Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk—Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk.”
Capital Position. The Company believes it has a strong capital position and, as part of its ongoing efforts to create shareholder value, expects to continue to return capital not needed to support its business operations to its shareholders, subject to the considerations described below. The Company expects that, generally over time, the combination of dividends to common shareholders and common share repurchases will likely not exceed net income. The Company also expects that to the extent that it continues to grow premium volumes, the level of capital to support the Company's financial strength ratings will also increase, and accordingly, the amount of capital returned to shareholders relative to earnings would be somewhat less than it otherwise would have been absent the growth in premium volumes. The timing and actual number of shares to be repurchased in the future will depend on a variety of additional factors, including the Company’s financial position, earnings, share price, catastrophe losses, maintaining capital levels appropriate for the Company’s business operations, changes in levels of written premiums, funding of the Company’s qualified pension plan, capital requirements of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, legal requirements, regulatory constraints, other investment opportunities (including mergers and acquisitions and related financings), market conditions, changes in tax laws (including the Inflation Reduction Act) and other factors. For information regarding the Company’s common share repurchases in 2022, see “Liquidity and Capital Resources” herein. S&P has announced that it intends to change its capital adequacy model. While the proposed model has not been finalized, it could increase the level of capital S&P requires for a particular financial strength rating. As part of its capital management strategy, the Company will continue to make its own assessment of the appropriate level of capital to support the Company’s business
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operations. For a discussion of the risks to the Company's claims-paying and financial strength ratings, see the risk factor entitled “A downgrade in our claims-paying and financial strength ratings could adversely impact our business volumes, adversely impact our ability to access the capital markets and increase our borrowing costs” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors.”
As a result of the Company’s business outside of the United States, primarily in Canada, the United Kingdom (including Lloyd’s), the Republic of Ireland and in Brazil through a joint venture, the Company’s capital is also subject to the effects of changes in foreign currency exchange rates. Strengthening of the U.S. dollar in comparison to other currencies could result in a reduction in shareholders’ equity, while a weakening of the U.S. dollar in comparison to other currencies could result in an increase in shareholders' equity. For additional discussion of the Company’s foreign exchange market risk exposure, see “Part II—Item 7A—Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.”
Many of the statements in this “Outlook” section and in “Liquidity and Capital Resources” are forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that are often difficult to predict and beyond the Company’s control. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Further, such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this report and the Company undertakes no obligation to update them. See “—Forward Looking Statements.” For a discussion of potential risks and uncertainties that could impact the Company’s results of operations or financial position, see “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors” and “Critical Accounting Estimates.”
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Consistent with 2021, the Company's liquidity and capital resources were not materially impacted by COVID-19 and related economic conditions during 2022.
Liquidity is a measure of a company’s ability to generate sufficient cash flows to meet the cash requirements of its business operations and to satisfy general corporate purposes when needed.
Operating Company Liquidity. The liquidity requirements of the Company’s insurance subsidiaries are met primarily by funds generated from premiums, fees, income received on investments and investment maturities. Cash provided from these sources is used primarily for claims and claim adjustment expense payments and operating expenses. The insurance subsidiaries’ liquidity requirements can be impacted by, among other factors, the timing and amount of catastrophe claims, which are inherently unpredictable, as well as the timing and amount of reinsurance recoveries, which may be affected by reinsurer solvency and reinsurance coverage disputes. Additionally, the variability of asbestos-related claim payments, as well as the volatility of potential judgments and settlements arising out of litigation, may also result in increased liquidity requirements. Increases in interest rates in 2022 resulted in net unrealized investment losses; however, since the Company generally holds its high-quality fixed maturity investments to maturity, the net unrealized loss is considered temporary in nature and is not expected to result in significant realized losses. In addition, given the temporary nature of net unrealized losses combined with the Company’s strong operating cash flows, which include income received on investments and the proceeds received upon maturity of the investments, the net unrealized investment loss is not expected to meaningfully impact the Company’s assessment of capital adequacy or liquidity. It is the opinion of the Company’s management that the insurance subsidiaries’ future liquidity needs will be adequately met from all of the sources described above. Subject to restrictions imposed by states in which the Company’s insurance subsidiaries are domiciled, the Company’s principal insurance subsidiaries pay dividends to their respective parent companies, which, in turn, pay dividends to the corporate holding (parent) company (TRV). For further information regarding restrictions on dividends paid by the Company’s insurance subsidiaries, see “Part I—Item 1—Business—Regulation.”
Holding Company Liquidity. TRV’s liquidity requirements primarily include shareholder dividends, debt servicing, common share repurchases and, from time to time, contributions to its qualified domestic pension plan. At December 31, 2022, TRV held total cash and short-term invested assets in the United States aggregating $1.45 billion and having a weighted average maturity of 39 days. TRV has established a holding company liquidity target equal to its estimated annual pre-tax interest expense and common shareholder dividends (currently approximately $1.20 billion). TRV’s holding company liquidity of $1.45 billion at December 31, 2022 exceeded this target, and it is the opinion of the Company’s management that these assets are sufficient to meet TRV’s current liquidity requirements.
TRV is not dependent on dividends or other forms of repatriation from its foreign operations to support its liquidity needs. The undistributed earnings of the Company’s foreign operations are intended to be permanently reinvested in those operations, and such earnings were not material to the Company’s financial position or liquidity at December 31, 2022.
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TRV has a shelf registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission that expires on June 8, 2025 which permits it to issue securities from time to time. TRV also has a $1.0 billion line of credit facility with a syndicate of financial institutions that expires on June 15, 2027. At December 31, 2022, the Company had $100 million of commercial paper outstanding. TRV is not reliant on its commercial paper program to meet its operating cash flow needs. The Company has no senior notes or junior subordinated debentures maturing until April 2026, at which time $200 million of senior notes will mature.
The Company utilized uncollateralized letters of credit issued by major banks with an aggregate limit of $260 million to provide a portion of the capital needed to support its obligations at Lloyd’s at December 31, 2022. If uncollateralized letters of credit are not available at a reasonable price or at all in the future, the Company can collateralize these letters of credit or may have to seek alternative means of supporting its obligations at Lloyd’s, which could include utilizing holding company funds on hand.
Operating Activities
Net cash provided by operating activities were $6.47 billion and $7.27 billion in 2022 and 2021, respectively. The decrease in cash flows in 2022 primarily reflected the impacts of higher levels of payments for claims and claim adjustment expenses and commissions, partially offset by higher levels of cash received for premiums. The increase in cash paid for claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2022 was impacted by business growth and higher loss costs. Cash paid for claims and claim adjustment expenses continue to be impacted by reduced judicial system and claims settlement activity related to COVID-19 and related economic conditions. The increase in cash received for premiums in 2022 compared to the prior year was impacted by business growth including the impact of positive renewal premium changes.
Investing Activities
Net cash used in investing activities was $3.73 billion and $5.20 billion in 2022 and 2021, respectively. The Company’s consolidated total investments at December 31, 2022 decreased by $6.92 billion, or 8% from December 31, 2021, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) net unrealized losses on investments at December 31, 2022 as compared with net unrealized investment gains at December 31, 2021, due to the impact of higher interest rates during 2022 and (ii) net cash used in financing activities, partially offset by (iii) net cash flows provided by operating activities.
The Company’s investment portfolio is managed to support its insurance operations; accordingly, the portfolio is positioned to meet obligations to policyholders. As such, the primary goals of the Company’s asset-liability management process are to satisfy the insurance liabilities and maintain sufficient liquidity to cover fluctuations in projected liability cash flows. Generally, the expected principal and interest payments produced by the Company’s fixed maturity portfolio adequately fund the estimated runoff of the Company’s insurance reserves. Although this is not an exact cash flow match in each period, the substantial amount by which the market value of the fixed maturity portfolio exceeds the value of the net insurance liabilities, as well as the positive cash flow from newly sold policies and the large amount of high quality liquid bonds, contributes to the Company’s ability to fund claim payments without having to sell illiquid assets or access credit facilities.
Financing Activities
Net cash used in financing activities were $2.67 billion and $2.04 billion in 2022 and 2021, respectively. The totals in both 2022 and 2021 reflected common share repurchases and dividends paid to shareholders, partially offset by the net proceeds from employee stock option exercises. The total in 2021 also included net proceeds from the issuance of debt. Common share repurchases in 2022 and 2021 were $2.06 billion and $2.20 billion, respectively.
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Debt Transactions.
2021. On June 8, 2021, the Company issued $750 million aggregate principal amount of 3.05% senior notes that will mature on June 8, 2051. The net proceeds of the issuance, after the deduction of the underwriting discount and expenses payable by the Company, totaled approximately $739 million. Interest on the senior notes is payable semi-annually in arrears on June 8 and December 8. Prior to December 8, 2050, the senior notes may be redeemed, in whole or in part, at the Company’s option, at any time or from time to time, at a redemption price equal to the greater of (a) 100% of the principal amount of any senior notes to be redeemed or (b) the sum of the present values of the remaining scheduled payments of principal and interest to but excluding December 8, 2050 on any senior notes to be redeemed (exclusive of interest accrued to the date of redemption) discounted to the date of redemption on a semi-annual basis (assuming a 360-day year consisting of twelve 30-day months) at the then current Treasury rate (as defined in the senior notes), plus 15 basis points. On or after December 8, 2050, the senior notes may be redeemed, in whole or in part, at the Company’s option, at any time or from time to time, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of any senior notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the redemption date.
Dividends. Dividends paid to shareholders were $875 million and $869 million in 2022 and 2021, respectively. The declaration and payment of future dividends to holders of the Company’s common stock will be at the discretion of the Company’s Board of Directors and will depend upon many factors, including the Company’s financial position, earnings, capital requirements of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, legal requirements, regulatory constraints and other factors as the Board of Directors deems relevant. Dividends will be paid by the Company only if declared by its Board of Directors out of funds legally available, subject to any other restrictions that may be applicable to the Company. On January 24, 2023, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.93 per share, payable March 31, 2023 to shareholders of record on March 10, 2023.
Share Repurchases. The Company’s Board of Directors has approved common share repurchase authorizations under which repurchases may be made from time to time in the open market, pursuant to pre-set trading plans meeting the requirements of Rule 10b5-1 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, in private transactions or otherwise. The authorizations do not have a stated expiration date. The most recent authorization was approved by the Board of Directors on April 20, 2021 and added $5.0 billion of repurchase capacity to the $805 million capacity remaining at that date. The Company expects that, generally over time, the combination of dividends to common shareholders and common share repurchases will likely not exceed net income. The Company also expects that to the extent that it continues to grow premium volumes, the amount of capital returned to shareholders relative to earnings would be somewhat less than it otherwise would have been. The timing and actual number of shares to be repurchased in the future will depend on a variety of factors, including the Company’s financial position, earnings, share price, catastrophe losses, maintaining capital levels appropriate for the Company’s business operations, changes in levels of written premiums, funding of the Company’s qualified pension plan, capital requirements of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, legal requirements, regulatory constraints, other investment opportunities (including mergers and acquisitions and related financings), market conditions, changes in tax laws (including the Inflation Reduction Act) and other factors. During 2022, the Company repurchased 11.6 million shares under its share repurchase authorization, for a total of $2.00 billion. The average cost per share repurchased was $172.82. Common share repurchases in 2022 were slightly lower than the total of $2.16 billion in 2021. At December 31, 2022, the Company had $2.00 billion of capacity remaining under its share repurchase authorization.
From the inception of the first authorization on May 2, 2006 through December 31, 2022, the Company has repurchased a cumulative total of 538.5 million shares for a total of $39.00 billion, or an average of $72.42 per share.
In 2022 and 2021, the Company acquired 0.4 million and 0.3 million shares of common stock, respectively, from employees as treasury stock primarily to cover payroll withholding taxes in connection with the vesting of restricted stock unit awards and performance share awards, and shares used by employees to cover the price of certain stock options that were exercised.
Capital Resources
Capital resources reflect the overall financial strength of the Company and its ability to borrow funds at competitive rates and raise new capital to meet its needs. The following table summarizes the components of the Company’s capital structure at December 31, 2022 and 2021:
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| (at December 31, in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt: | |||||||
| Short-term | $ | 100 | $ | 100 | |||
| Long-term | 7,254 | 7,254 | |||||
| Net unamortized fair value adjustments and debt issuance costs | (62) | (64) | |||||
| Total debt | 7,292 | 7,290 | |||||
| Shareholders’ equity: | |||||||
| Common stock and retained earnings, less treasury stock | 28,005 | 27,694 | |||||
| Accumulated other comprehensive income | (6,445) | 1,193 | |||||
| Total shareholders’ equity | 21,560 | 28,887 | |||||
| Total capitalization | $ | 28,852 | $ | 36,177 |
Total capitalization at December 31, 2022 was $28.85 billion, $7.33 billion lower than at December 31, 2021, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) other comprehensive loss of $7.64 billion, primarily reflecting the decrease in net unrealized appreciation on investments due to an increase in interest rates during 2022, (ii) common share repurchases totaling $2.00 billion under the Company’s share repurchase authorization and (iii) shareholder dividends of $880 million, partially offset by (iv) net income of $2.84 billion and (v) proceeds from the exercise of employee share options of $267 million.
The following table provides a reconciliation of total capitalization presented in the foregoing table to total capitalization excluding net unrealized gains (losses) on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders' equity:
| (at December 31, dollars in millions) | 2022 | 2021 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total capitalization | $ | 28,852 | $ | 36,177 | |||
| Less: net unrealized gains (losses) on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders' equity | (4,898) | 2,415 | |||||
| Total capitalization excluding net unrealized gains (losses) on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders' equity | $ | 33,750 | $ | 33,762 | |||
| Debt-to-total capital ratio | 25.3 | % | 20.2 | % | |||
| Debt-to-total capital ratio excluding net unrealized gains (losses) on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders' equity | 21.6 | % | 21.6 | % |
The increase in the debt-to-total capital ratio was primarily due to net unrealized investment losses at December 31, 2022 compared to net unrealized investment gains at December 31, 2021 as a result of rising interest rates. The debt-to-total capital ratio excluding net unrealized gains (losses) on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity, is calculated by dividing (a) debt by (b) total capitalization excluding net unrealized gains and losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity. Net unrealized gains and losses on investments can be significantly impacted by both interest rate movements and other economic factors. Accordingly, in the opinion of the Company’s management, the debt-to-total capital ratio calculated on this basis provides another useful metric for investors to understand the Company’s financial leverage position. The Company’s ratio of debt-to-total capital excluding after-tax net unrealized investment gains (losses) included in shareholders’ equity of 21.6% at December 31, 2022 was within the Company’s target range of 15% to 25%.
Credit Agreement. The Company is a party to a five-year, $1.0 billion revolving credit agreement with a syndicate of financial institutions that expires on June 15, 2027. Terms of the credit agreement are discussed in more detail in note 9 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Shelf Registration. The Company has filed a universal shelf registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission that expires on June 8, 2025 for the potential offering and sale of securities. The Company may offer these securities from time to time at prices and on other terms to be determined at the time of offering.
Share Repurchase Authorization. At December 31, 2022, the Company had $2.00 billion of capacity remaining under its share repurchase authorization approved by the Board of Directors.
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Cash Requirements from Contractual and Other Obligations
The following table summarizes, as of December 31, 2022, the Company’s future payments under material contractual obligations and estimated claims and claim-related payments. The table includes only liabilities at December 31, 2022 that are expected to be settled in cash.
The table below includes the amount and estimated future timing of claims and claim-related payments. The amounts do not represent the exact liability, but instead represent estimates, generally utilizing actuarial projection techniques, at a given accounting date. These estimates include expectations of what the ultimate settlement and administration of claims will cost based on the Company’s assessment of facts and circumstances known, review of historical settlement patterns, estimates of trends in claims severity, frequency, legal theories of liability and other factors. Variables in the reserve estimation process can be affected by both internal and external events, such as changes in claims handling procedures, economic inflation or deflation, legal trends and legislative changes. Many of these items are not directly quantifiable, particularly on a prospective basis. Additionally, there may be significant reporting lags between the occurrence of the policyholder event and the time it is actually reported to the insurer. The future cash flows related to the items contained in the table below required estimation of both amount (including severity considerations) and timing. Amount and timing are frequently estimated separately. An estimation of both amount and timing of future cash flows related to claims and claim-related payments has unavoidable estimation uncertainty.
The material cash requirements from contractual and other obligations at December 31, 2022 were as follows:
| Payments Due by Period (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt | |||||||||||||||||||
| Senior notes | $ | 7,000 | $ | — | $ | — | $ | 200 | $ | 6,800 | |||||||||
| Junior subordinated debentures | 254 | — | — | 125 | 129 | ||||||||||||||
| Total debt principal | 7,254 | — | — | 325 | 6,929 | ||||||||||||||
| Interest | 6,571 | 348 | 696 | 673 | 4,854 | ||||||||||||||
| Total long-term debt obligations (1) | 13,825 | 348 | 696 | 998 | 11,783 | ||||||||||||||
| Real estate and other operating leases (2) | 308 | 93 | 121 | 70 | 24 | ||||||||||||||
| Information systems-related commitments (3) | 563 | 272 | 222 | 69 | — | ||||||||||||||
| Long-term unfunded investment commitments (4) | 1,802 | 399 | 544 | 601 | 258 | ||||||||||||||
| Estimated claims and claim-related payments | |||||||||||||||||||
| Claims and claim adjustment expenses (5) | 57,014 | 12,897 | 14,599 | 7,223 | 22,295 | ||||||||||||||
| Claims from large deductible policies (6) | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| Total estimated claims and claim-related payments | 57,014 | 12,897 | 14,599 | 7,223 | 22,295 | ||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 73,512 | $ | 14,009 | $ | 16,182 | $ | 8,961 | $ | 34,360 |
________________________________________
(1)See note 9 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements for a further discussion of outstanding indebtedness. Because the amounts reported in the foregoing table include principal and interest, the total long-term debt obligations will not agree with the amounts reported in note 9.
(2)Represents agreements entered into in the ordinary course of business to lease office space, equipment and furniture.
(3)Includes agreements with vendors to purchase system software (including software as a service), software maintenance services and technology-related costs.
(4)Represents estimated timing for fulfilling unfunded commitments for private equity limited partnerships, real estate partnerships and other, as well as a put/call option entered into by the Company in connection with a business acquisition.
(5)The amounts in “Claims and claim adjustment expenses” in the table above represent the estimated timing of future payments for both reported and unreported claims incurred and related claim adjustment expenses, gross of reinsurance recoverables, excluding structured settlements expected to be paid by annuity companies.
The Company has entered into reinsurance agreements to manage its exposure to losses and protect its capital as described in note 6 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
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In order to qualify for reinsurance accounting, a reinsurance agreement must indemnify the insurer from insurance risk, i.e., the agreement must transfer amount and timing risk. Since the timing and amount of cash inflows from such reinsurance agreements are directly related to the underlying payment of claims and claim adjustment expenses by the insurer, reinsurance recoverables are recognized in a manner consistent with the liabilities (the estimated liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses) relating to the underlying reinsured contracts. The presence of any feature that can delay timely reimbursement of claims by a reinsurer results in the reinsurance contract being accounted for as a deposit rather than reinsurance. The assumptions used in estimating the amount and timing of the reinsurance recoverables are consistent with those used in estimating the amount and timing of the related liabilities.
The estimated future cash inflows from the Company’s reinsurance contracts that qualify for reinsurance accounting are as follows:
| (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance recoverables | $ | 5,088 | $ | 926 | $ | 1,055 | $ | 604 | $ | 2,503 |
The Company manages its business and evaluates its liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses on a net of reinsurance basis. The estimated cash flows on a net of reinsurance basis are as follows:
| (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claims and claim adjustment expenses, net | $ | 51,926 | $ | 11,971 | $ | 13,544 | $ | 6,619 | $ | 19,792 |
For business underwritten by non-U.S. operations, future cash flows related to reported and unreported claims incurred and related claim adjustment expenses were translated at the spot rate on December 31, 2022.
The amounts reported in the table above and in the table of reinsurance recoverables above are presented on a nominal basis and have not been adjusted to reflect the time value of money. Accordingly, the amounts above will differ from the Company’s balance sheet to the extent that the liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses and the related reinsurance recoverables have been discounted in the balance sheet. See note 1 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
(6) Workers’ compensation large deductible policies provide third-party coverage in which the Company typically is responsible for paying the entire loss under such policies and then seeks reimbursement from the insured for the deductible amount. “Claims from large deductible policies” represent the estimated future payment for claims and claim related expenses below the deductible amount, net of the estimated recovery of the deductible. The liability and the related deductible receivable for unpaid claims are presented in the consolidated balance sheet as “contractholder payables” and “contractholder receivables,” respectively. Most deductibles for such policies are paid directly from the policyholder’s escrow, which is periodically replenished by the policyholder. The payment of the loss amounts above the deductible are reported within “Claims and claim adjustment expenses” in the above table. Because the timing of the collection of the deductible (contractholder receivables) occurs shortly after the payment of the deductible to a claimant (contractholder payables), these cash flows offset each other in the table.
The estimated timing of the payment of the contractholder payables and the collection of contractholder receivables (net of allowance for expected credit losses) for workers’ compensation policies is presented below:
| (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contractholder payables/receivables | $ | 3,579 | $ | 1,087 | $ | 1,040 | $ | 463 | $ | 989 |
The above table does not include an analysis of liabilities reported for structured settlements for which the Company has purchased annuities and remains contingently liable in the event of default by the company issuing the annuity. The Company is not reasonably likely to incur material future payment obligations under such agreements. In addition, the Company is not currently subject to any minimum funding requirements for its qualified pension plan. Accordingly, future contributions are not included in the foregoing table.
The Company believes that the combination of operating company liquidity, holding company liquidity, its investment portfolio and its capital resources are sufficient to meet its contractual obligations.
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Dividend Availability
The Company’s principal insurance subsidiaries are domiciled in the State of Connecticut. The insurance holding company laws of Connecticut applicable to the Company’s subsidiaries requires notice to, and approval by, the state insurance commissioner for the declaration or payment of any dividend that, together with other distributions made within the preceding twelve months, exceeds the greater of 10% of the insurer’s statutory capital and surplus as of the preceding December 31, or the insurer’s net income for the twelve-month period ending the preceding December 31, in each case determined in accordance with statutory accounting practices and by state regulation. This declaration or payment is further limited by adjusted unassigned surplus, as determined in accordance with statutory accounting practices. The insurance holding company laws of other states in which the Company’s subsidiaries are domiciled generally contain similar, although in some instances somewhat more restrictive, limitations on the payment of dividends. A maximum of $2.55 billion is available by the end of 2023 for such dividends to the holding company, TRV, without prior approval of the Connecticut Insurance Department. The Company may choose to accelerate the timing within 2023 and/or increase the amount of dividends from its insurance subsidiaries in 2023, which could result in certain dividends being subject to approval by the Connecticut Insurance Department.
In addition to the regulatory restrictions on the availability of dividends that can be paid by the Company’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries, the maximum amount of dividends that may be paid to the Company’s shareholders is limited, to a lesser degree, by certain covenants contained in its line of credit agreement with a syndicate of financial institutions that require the Company to maintain a minimum consolidated net worth as described in note 9 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
TRV is not dependent on dividends or other forms of repatriation from its foreign operations to support its liquidity needs. The undistributed earnings of the Company’s foreign operations are intended to be permanently reinvested in those operations, and such earnings were not material to the Company’s financial position or liquidity at December 31, 2022.
TRV and its two non-insurance holding company subsidiaries received dividends of $2.90 billion and $2.18 billion from their U.S. insurance subsidiaries in 2022 and 2021, respectively.
Pension and Other Postretirement Benefit Plans
The Company sponsors a qualified non-contributory defined benefit pension plan (the qualified domestic pension plan), which covers substantially all U.S. domestic employees and provides benefits primarily under a cash balance formula. In addition, the Company sponsors a nonqualified defined benefit pension plan which covers certain highly-compensated employees, pension plans for employees of its foreign subsidiaries, and a postretirement health and life insurance benefit plan for employees satisfying certain age and service requirements and for certain retirees.
The qualified domestic pension plan is subject to regulations under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 as amended (ERISA), which requires plans to meet minimum standards of funding and requires such plans to subscribe to plan termination insurance through the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). The Company does not have a minimum funding requirement for the qualified domestic pension plan for 2023 and does not anticipate having a minimum funding requirement in 2024. The Company has significant discretion in making contributions above those necessary to satisfy the minimum funding requirements. In 2022, 2021 and 2020, there was no minimum funding requirement for the qualified domestic pension plan. In 2022, 2021 and 2020, the Company made no voluntary contributions to the qualified domestic pension plan. The qualified domestic pension plan had a funded status of 116% at both December 31, 2022 and 2021. Based on its funded status at December 31, 2022, the Company does not currently anticipate making a voluntary contribution to the qualified domestic pension plan in 2023. In determining future contributions, the Company will consider the performance of the plan’s investment portfolio, the effects of interest rates on the projected benefit obligation of the plan and the Company’s other capital requirements.
The qualified domestic pension plan assets are managed to maximize long-term total return while maintaining an appropriate level of risk. The Company’s overall investment strategy is to achieve a mix of approximately 85% to 90% of investments for long-term growth and 10% to 15% for near-term benefit payments with a diversification of asset types, fund strategies and fund managers. The current target allocations for plan assets are 55% to 65% equity securities and 20% to 40% fixed income securities, with the remainder allocated to short-term securities. For 2023, the Company plans to apply an expected long-term rate of return on plan assets of 7.00%, compared with 6.50% in 2022. The expected rate of return reflects the Company’s current expectations with regard to long-term returns in the capital markets, taking into account the pension plan’s asset allocation targets, the historical performance and current valuation of U.S. and international equities, and the level of long term interest rate and inflation expectations.
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For further discussion of the pension and other postretirement benefit plans, see note 15 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Risk-Based Capital
The NAIC has an RBC requirement for most property and casualty insurance companies, which determines minimum capital requirements and is intended to raise the level of protection for policyholder obligations. The Company’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries are subject to these NAIC RBC requirements based on laws that have been adopted by individual states. These requirements subject insurers having policyholders’ surplus less than that required by the RBC calculation to varying degrees of regulatory action, depending on the level of capital inadequacy. Each of the Company’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries had policyholders’ surplus at December 31, 2022 significantly above the level at which any RBC regulatory action would occur. Regulators in the jurisdictions in which the Company’s foreign insurance subsidiaries are located require insurance companies to maintain certain levels of capital depending on, among other things, the type and amount of insurance policies written. Each of the Company’s foreign insurance subsidiaries had capital significantly above their respective regulatory requirements at December 31, 2022.
Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements
The Company has entered into certain contingent obligations for guarantees related to selling businesses to third parties, certain investments, certain insurance policy obligations of former insurance subsidiaries and various other indemnifications. See note 17 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements. The Company does not believe it is reasonably likely that these arrangements will have a material current or future effect on the Company’s financial position, changes in financial position, revenues and expenses, results of operations, liquidity, capital expenditures or capital resources.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
The Company considers its most significant accounting estimates to be those applied to claims and claim adjustment expense reserves and related reinsurance recoverables, and impairments of investments, goodwill and other intangible assets.
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expense Reserves
Gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves by product line were as follows:
| December 31, 2022 | December 31, 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in millions) | Case | IBNR | Total | Case | IBNR | Total | |||||||||||||||||
| General liability | $ | 5,465 | $ | 9,220 | $ | 14,685 | $ | 5,351 | $ | 8,863 | $ | 14,214 | |||||||||||
| Commercial property | 1,200 | 439 | 1,639 | 1,220 | 392 | 1,612 | |||||||||||||||||
| Commercial multi-peril | 2,624 | 2,759 | 5,383 | 2,404 | 2,573 | 4,977 | |||||||||||||||||
| Commercial automobile | 2,625 | 2,388 | 5,013 | 2,594 | 2,335 | 4,929 | |||||||||||||||||
| Workers’ compensation | 10,034 | 9,458 | 19,492 | 10,152 | 9,551 | 19,703 | |||||||||||||||||
| Fidelity and surety | 166 | 496 | 662 | 188 | 436 | 624 | |||||||||||||||||
| Personal automobile | 2,139 | 2,133 | 4,272 | 2,062 | 1,765 | 3,827 | |||||||||||||||||
| Personal homeowners and other | 1,095 | 1,913 | 3,008 | 1,021 | 1,395 | 2,416 | |||||||||||||||||
| International and other | 2,420 | 2,069 | 4,489 | 2,525 | 2,070 | 4,595 | |||||||||||||||||
| Property-casualty | 27,768 | 30,875 | 58,643 | 27,517 | 29,380 | 56,897 | |||||||||||||||||
| Accident and health | 6 | — | 6 | 10 | — | 10 | |||||||||||||||||
| Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves | $ | 27,774 | $ | 30,875 | $ | 58,649 | $ | 27,527 | $ | 29,380 | $ | 56,907 |
The $1.74 billion increase in gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves since December 31, 2021 primarily reflected the impacts of (i) higher volumes of insured exposures, (ii) loss cost trends for the current accident year and (iii) catastrophe losses in 2022, partially offset by (iv) claim payments made during 2022 and (v) net favorable prior year reserve development.
Asbestos and environmental reserves are included in the General liability, Commercial multi-peril and International and other lines in the foregoing summary table. Asbestos and environmental reserves are discussed separately; see “Asbestos Claims and
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Litigation,” “Environmental Claims and Litigation” and “Uncertainty Regarding Adequacy of Asbestos and Environmental Reserves” herein.
Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves represent management’s estimate of the ultimate liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses for claims that have been reported and claims that have been incurred but not yet reported (IBNR) as of the balance sheet date. Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves do not represent an exact calculation of liability, but instead represent management estimates, primarily utilizing actuarial expertise and projection methods. These estimates are expectations of what the ultimate settlement and administration of claims will cost upon final resolution in the future, based on the Company’s assessment of facts and circumstances then known, review of historical settlement patterns, estimates of trends in claims severity and frequency, expected interpretations of legal theories of liability and other factors. In establishing gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, the Company also considers salvage and subrogation. Estimated recoveries from reinsurance are included in “Reinsurance Recoverables” as an asset on the Company’s consolidated balance sheet. The claims and claim adjustment expense reserves are reviewed regularly by qualified actuaries employed by the Company.
The process of estimating claims and claim adjustment expense reserves involves a high degree of judgment and is subject to a number of variables. These variables can be affected by both internal and external events, such as changes in claims handling procedures, changes in individuals involved in the reserve estimation process, economic inflation, changes in the tort environment, legal trends and legislative changes, among others. The impact of many of these items on ultimate costs for claims and claim adjustment expenses is difficult to estimate. Estimation difficulties also differ significantly by product line due to differences in claim complexity, the volume of claims, the potential severity of individual claims, the determination of occurrence date for a claim and reporting lags (the time between the occurrence of the policyholder event and when it is actually reported to the insurer). Informed judgment is applied throughout the process, including the application of various individual experiences and expertise to multiple sets of data and analyses. The Company refines its estimates in a regular ongoing process as historical loss experience develops and additional claims are reported and settled. The Company rigorously attempts to consider all significant facts and circumstances known at the time claims and claim adjustment expense reserves are established. Due to the inherent uncertainty underlying these estimates including, but not limited to, the future settlement environment, final resolution of the estimated liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses may be higher or lower than the related claims and claim adjustment expense reserves at the reporting date. Therefore, actual paid losses, as claims are settled in the future, may be materially different than the amount currently recorded-favorable or unfavorable. Because establishment of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves is an inherently uncertain process involving estimates and the application of judgment, currently established claims and claim adjustment expense reserves may change. The Company reflects adjustments to the reserves in the results of operations in the period the estimates are changed.
There are also additional risks which impact the estimation of ultimate costs for catastrophes. For example, the estimation of reserves related to hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires and other catastrophic events can be affected by the inability of the Company and its insureds to access portions of the impacted areas, the complexity of factors contributing to the losses, the legal and regulatory uncertainties, including the interpretation of policy terms and conditions, and the nature of the information available to establish the reserves. Complex factors include, but are not limited to: determining whether damage was caused by flooding versus wind; evaluating general liability and pollution exposures; estimating additional living expenses; estimating the impact of demand surge, infrastructure disruption, fraud, the effect of mold damage and business interruption costs; and reinsurance collectibility. The timing of a catastrophe, such as at or near the end of a reporting period, can also affect the information available to the Company in estimating reserves for that reporting period. The estimates related to catastrophes are adjusted as actual claims emerge.
A portion of the Company’s gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves (totaling $2.07 billion at December 31, 2022) are for asbestos and environmental claims and related litigation. While the ongoing review of asbestos and environmental claims and associated liabilities considers the inconsistencies of court decisions as to coverage, plaintiffs’ expanded theories of liability and the risks inherent in complex litigation and other uncertainties, in the opinion of the Company’s management, it is possible that the outcome of the continued uncertainties regarding these claims could result in liability in future periods that differs from current insurance reserves by an amount that could be material to the Company’s future operating results. See the preceding discussion of “Asbestos Claims and Litigation” and “Environmental Claims and Litigation.”
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General Discussion
The process for estimating the liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses begins with the collection and analysis of claim data. Data on individual reported claims, both current and historical, including paid amounts and individual claim adjuster estimates, are grouped by common characteristics (components) and evaluated by actuaries in their analyses of ultimate claim liabilities. Such data is occasionally supplemented with external data as available and when appropriate. The process of analyzing reserves for a component is undertaken on a regular basis, generally quarterly, in light of continually updated information.
Multiple estimation methods are available for the analysis of ultimate claim liabilities. Each estimation method has its own set of assumption variables and its own advantages and disadvantages, with no single estimation method being better than the others in all situations and no one set of assumption variables being meaningful for all product line components. The relative strengths and weaknesses of the particular estimation methods when applied to a particular group of claims can also change over time. Therefore, the actual choice of estimation method(s) can change with each evaluation. The estimation method(s) chosen are those that are believed to produce the most reliable indication at that particular evaluation date for the claim liabilities being evaluated.
In most cases, multiple estimation methods will be valid for the particular facts and circumstances of the claim liabilities being evaluated. This will result in a range of reasonable estimates for any particular claim liability. The Company uses such range analyses to back test whether previously established estimates for reserves by reporting segments are reasonable, given available information. Reported values found to be closer to the endpoints of a range of reasonable estimates are subject to further detailed reviews. These reviews may substantiate the validity of management’s recorded estimate or lead to a change in the reported estimate.
The exact boundary points of these ranges are more qualitative than quantitative in nature, as no clear line of demarcation exists to determine when the set of underlying assumptions for an estimation method switches from being reasonable to unreasonable. As a result, the Company does not believe that the endpoints of these ranges are or would be comparable across companies. In addition, potential interactions among the different estimation assumptions for different product lines make the aggregation of individual ranges a highly judgmental and inexact process.
Property-casualty insurance policies are either written on a “claims-made” or on an “occurrence” basis. Claims-made policies generally cover, subject to requirements in individual policies, claims reported during the policy period. Policies that are written on an occurrence basis require that the insured demonstrate that a loss occurred in the policy period, even if the insured reports the loss many years later.
Most general liability policies are written on an occurrence basis. These policies are subject to substantial loss development over time as facts and circumstances change in the years following the policy issuance. The occurrence form, which accounts for much of the reserve development in asbestos and environmental exposures, is also used to provide coverage for construction general liability, including construction defect. Occurrence-based forms of insurance for general liability exposures require substantial projection of loss trends, which can be influenced by a number of factors, including future inflation, judicial interpretations and societal litigation trends (e.g., size of jury awards and propensity of individuals to pursue litigation), among others.
A basic premise in most actuarial analyses is that past patterns demonstrated in the data will repeat themselves in the future, absent a material change in the associated risk factors discussed below. To the extent a material change affecting the ultimate claim liability is known, such change is estimated to the extent possible through an analysis of internal company data and, if available and when appropriate, external data. Such a measurement is specific to the facts and circumstances of the particular claim portfolio and the known change being evaluated. Significant structural changes to the available data, product mix or organization can materially impact the reserve estimation process. In addition, the introduction of new products creates a unique risk as historical company data would typically not be available.
Informed judgment is applied throughout the reserving process. This includes the application of various individual experiences and expertise to multiple sets of data and analyses. In addition to actuaries, experts involved with the reserving process also include underwriting and claims personnel and lawyers, as well as other company management. Therefore, management may have to consider varying individual viewpoints as part of its estimation of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves. It is also likely that during periods of significant change, such as a merger, consistent application of informed judgment becomes even more complicated and difficult.
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The variables discussed above in this general discussion have different impacts on reserve estimation uncertainty for a given product line, depending on the length of the claim tail, the reporting lag, the impact of individual claims and the complexity of the claim process for a given product line.
Product lines are generally classifiable as either long tail or short tail, based on the average length of time between the event triggering claims under a policy and the final resolution of those claims. Short tail claims are reported and settled quickly, resulting in less estimation variability. The longer the time to final claim resolution, the greater the exposure to estimation risks and hence the greater the estimation uncertainty.
A major component of the claim tail is the reporting lag. The reporting lag, which is the time between the event triggering a claim and the reporting of the claim to the insurer, makes estimating IBNR inherently more uncertain. In addition, the greater the reporting lag, the greater the proportion of IBNR to the total claim liability for the product line. Writing new products with material reporting lags can result in adding several years’ worth of IBNR claim exposure before the reporting lag exposure becomes clearly observable, thereby increasing the risk associated with estimating the liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses for such products. The most extreme example of claim liabilities with long reporting lags are asbestos claims.
For some lines, the impact of large individual claims can be material to the analysis. These lines are generally referred to as being “low frequency/high severity,” while lines without this “large claim” sensitivity are referred to as “high frequency/low severity.” Estimates of claim liabilities for low frequency/high severity lines can be sensitive to the impact of a small number of potentially large claims. As a result, the role of judgment is much greater for these reserve estimates. In contrast, for high frequency/low severity lines the impact of individual claims is relatively minor and the range of reasonable reserve estimates is likely narrower and more stable.
Claim complexity can also greatly affect the estimation process by impacting the number of assumptions needed to produce the estimate, the potential stability of the underlying data and claim process, and the ability to gain an understanding of the data. Product lines with greater claim complexity, such as for certain surety and construction exposures, have inherently greater estimation uncertainty.
Actuaries have to exercise a considerable degree of judgment in the evaluation of all these factors in their analysis of reserves. The human element in the application of actuarial judgment is unavoidable when faced with material uncertainty. Different actuaries may choose different assumptions when faced with such uncertainty, based on their individual backgrounds, professional experiences and areas of focus. Hence, the estimates selected by the various actuaries may differ materially from each other.
Lastly, significant structural changes to the available data, product mix or organization can also materially impact the reserve estimation process. Events such as mergers increase the inherent uncertainty of reserve estimates for a period of time, until stable trends re-establish themselves within the new organization.
FY 2021 10-K MD&A
SEC filing source: 0000086312-22-000013.
Item 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following is a discussion and analysis of the Company’s financial condition and results of operations for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, including year-to-year comparisons between 2021 and 2020. Year-to-year comparisons between 2020 and 2019 have been omitted from this Form 10-K, but may be found in "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in Part II, Item 7 of the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020.
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
2021 Consolidated Results of Operations
•Net income of $3.66 billion, or $14.63 per share basic and $14.49 per share diluted
•Net earned premiums of $30.86 billion
•Catastrophe losses of $1.85 billion ($1.46 billion after-tax)
•Net favorable prior year reserve development of $538 million ($424 million after-tax)
•Combined ratio of 94.5%
•Net investment income of $3.03 billion ($2.54 billion after-tax)
•Operating cash flows of $7.27 billion
2021 Consolidated Financial Condition
•Total investments of $87.38 billion; fixed maturities and short-term securities comprise 93% of total investments
•Total assets of $120.47 billion
•Total debt of $7.29 billion, resulting in a debt-to-total capital ratio of 20.2% (21.6% excluding net unrealized investment gains, net of tax, included in shareholders' equity)
•Total capital returned to shareholders of $3.08 billion, comprising $2.20 billion of share repurchases and $876 million of dividends
•Shareholders’ equity of $28.89 billion
•Net unrealized investment gains of $3.06 billion ($2.42 billion after-tax)
•Book value per common share of $119.77
•Holding company liquidity of $1.53 billion
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CONSOLIDATED OVERVIEW
Consolidated Results of Operations
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions except per share amounts) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Premiums | $ | 30,855 | $ | 29,044 | $ | 28,272 | |||||
| Net investment income | 3,033 | 2,227 | 2,468 | ||||||||
| Fee income | 402 | 429 | 459 | ||||||||
| Net realized investment gains | 171 | 2 | 113 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 355 | 279 | 269 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 34,816 | 31,981 | 31,581 | ||||||||
| Claims and expenses | |||||||||||
| Claims and claim adjustment expenses | 20,298 | 19,123 | 19,133 | ||||||||
| Amortization of deferred acquisition costs | 5,043 | 4,773 | 4,601 | ||||||||
| General and administrative expenses | 4,677 | 4,509 | 4,365 | ||||||||
| Interest expense | 340 | 339 | 344 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 30,358 | 28,744 | 28,443 | ||||||||
| Income before income taxes | 4,458 | 3,237 | 3,138 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense | 796 | 540 | 516 | ||||||||
| Net income | $ | 3,662 | $ | 2,697 | $ | 2,622 | |||||
| Net income per share | |||||||||||
| Basic | $ | 14.63 | $ | 10.56 | $ | 10.01 | |||||
| Diluted | $ | 14.49 | $ | 10.52 | $ | 9.92 | |||||
| Combined ratio | |||||||||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 65.1 | % | 65.1 | % | 66.9 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 29.4 | 29.9 | 29.6 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 94.5 | % | 95.0 | % | 96.5 | % |
The following discussions of the Company’s net income and segment income are presented on an after-tax basis. Discussions of the components of net income and segment income are presented on a pre-tax basis, unless otherwise noted. Discussions of earnings per common share are presented on a diluted basis.
Overview
Diluted net income per share of $14.49 in 2021 increased by 38% over diluted net income per share of $10.52 in 2020. Net income of $3.66 billion in 2021 increased by 36% over net income of $2.70 billion in 2020. The higher rate of increase in diluted net income per share reflected the impact of share repurchases in recent periods. The increase in income before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) higher net investment income, (ii) higher underwriting margins excluding catastrophe losses and prior year reserve development ("underlying underwriting margins"), (iii) higher net favorable prior year reserve development and (iv) higher net realized investment gains, partially offset by (v) higher catastrophe losses (net of recoveries under the Underlying Property Aggregate Catastrophe Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance treaties). Catastrophe losses in 2021 and 2020 were $1.85 billion and $1.61 billion, respectively. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2021 and 2020 was $538 million and $351 million, respectively. The higher underlying underwriting margins in 2021 were driven by Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty Insurance, partially offset by Personal Insurance. Underlying underwriting margins in 2021 and 2020 reflected a net favorable impact from COVID-19 and related economic conditions. Income tax expense in 2021 was higher than in 2020, primarily reflecting the impact of the increase in income before income taxes.
For discussion regarding the potential future impacts of COVID-19 and related economic conditions on the Company, see "Outlook" and "Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors."
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The Company has insurance operations in Canada, the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland and throughout other parts of the world as a corporate member of Lloyd’s, as well as in Brazil and Colombia, primarily through joint ventures. Because these operations are conducted in local currencies other than the U.S. dollar, the Company is subject to changes in foreign currency exchange rates. For the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, changes in foreign currency exchange rates impacted reported line items in the statement of income by insignificant amounts. The impact of these changes was not material to the Company’s net income or segment income for the periods reported.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2021 were $30.86 billion, $1.81 billion or 6% higher than in 2020. In Business Insurance, earned premiums in 2021 increased by 3% over 2020. Earned premiums in Business Insurance in 2021 were negatively impacted by lower net written premiums primarily in the latter half of 2020 due to a modest reduction in exposures and a decrease in new business volume, in each case impacted by COVID-19 and related economic conditions. Earned premiums in Business Insurance in 2020 were negatively impacted by reduced exposures and reductions in the Company's estimate of ultimate audit premiums receivable, in each case reflecting the impact of COVID-19 and related economic conditions, including a decrease in new business levels. In Bond & Specialty Insurance, earned premiums in 2021 increased by 11% over 2020. Earned premiums in Bond & Specialty Insurance in 2021 and 2020 were not materially impacted by COVID-19 and related economic conditions. In Personal Insurance, earned premiums in 2021 increased by 10% over 2020. Earned premiums in Personal Insurance in 2021 were not materially impacted by COVID-19 and related economic conditions. Earned premiums in Personal Insurance in 2020 were reduced by premium refunds provided to personal automobile customers in response to COVID-19 and related economic conditions. Factors contributing to the increase in earned premiums in each segment in 2021 as compared with 2020 are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
Net Investment Income
The following table sets forth information regarding the Company’s investments.
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average investments(1) | $ | 83,574 | $ | 78,070 | $ | 74,866 | |||||
| Pre-tax net investment income | 3,033 | 2,227 | 2,468 | ||||||||
| After-tax net investment income | 2,541 | $ | 1,908 | 2,097 | |||||||
| Average pre-tax yield(2) | 3.6 | % | 2.9 | % | 3.3 | % | |||||
| Average after-tax yield(2) | 3.0 | % | 2.4 | % | 2.8 | % |
___________________________________________
(1)Excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses and reflects cash, receivables for investment sales, payables on investment purchases and accrued investment income.
(2)Excludes net realized and net unrealized investment gains and losses.
Net investment income in 2021 was $3.03 billion, $806 million or 36% higher than in 2020. Net investment income from fixed maturity investments in 2021 was $1.99 billion, $22 million lower than in 2020. The decrease primarily resulted from lower long-term interest rates, partially offset by a higher average level of fixed maturity investments. Net investment income from short-term securities in 2021 was $7 million, $37 million lower than in 2020. The decrease primarily resulted from lower short-term interest rates. The Company's remaining investment portfolios had net investment income of $1.08 billion in 2021, $868 million higher than in 2020, primarily due to higher private equity partnership returns. Net investment income from these investments in 2020 included the impact of the disruption in global financial markets associated with COVID-19. Included in other investments are private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships that are accounted for under the equity method of accounting and typically report their financial statement information to the Company one month to three months following the end of the reporting period. Accordingly, net investment income from these other investments is generally reflected in the Company's financial statements on a quarter lag basis.
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Fee Income
Fee income in 2021 was $402 million, $27 million lower than in 2020. The National Accounts market in Business Insurance is the primary source of the Company’s fee-based business and is discussed in the Business Insurance segment discussion that follows.
Net Realized Investment Gains
The following table sets forth information regarding the Company’s net pre-tax realized investment gains.
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit impairment losses: | |||||||||||
| Fixed maturities | $ | (2) | $ | (15) | $ | (4) | |||||
| Other investments | — | (40) | — | ||||||||
| Net realized investment gains on equity securities still held | 78 | 27 | 61 | ||||||||
| Other net realized investment gains, including from sales | 95 | 30 | 56 | ||||||||
| Total | $ | 171 | $ | 2 | $ | 113 |
In the second quarter of 2020, the Company recorded a $40 million credit impairment loss from the other-than-temporary impairment of the carrying value of a joint venture investment included in other investments.
Other net realized investment gains in 2021 included $69 million of net realized investment gains related to fixed maturity investments, $17 million of net realized investment gains related to equity securities sold and $9 million of net realized investment gains related to other investments. Other net realized investment gains in 2020 included $67 million of net realized investment gains related to fixed maturity investments, $11 million of net realized investment losses related to equity securities sold and $26 million of net realized investment losses related to other investments.
Other Revenues
Other revenues in all years presented included revenues from Simply Business and installment premium charges. Installment premium charges in 2020 were reduced by billing relief actions offered to customers as a result of COVID-19.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2021 were $20.30 billion, $1.18 billion or 6% higher than 2020, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) higher catastrophe losses, (ii) loss cost trends, (iii) higher business volumes, (iv) higher losses in the automobile product line in Personal Insurance due to a comparison to a low level of loss activity in 2020 as a result of the pandemic and, to a lesser extent, elevated severity in the current year and (v) higher losses in the homeowners and other product line in Personal Insurance, partially offset by (vi) higher net favorable prior year reserve development and (vii) a net favorable impact associated with COVID-19 and related economic conditions in Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty Insurance in the aggregate compared to a net charge in 2020. Catastrophes in 2021 primarily resulted from Hurricane Ida, tornado activity in Kentucky, winter storms and severe wind and hail storms in several regions of the United States, as well as a wildfire in Colorado. Catastrophes in 2020 primarily resulted from the derecho windstorm in the midwestern region of the United States, the Glass wildfire in California, Tropical Storm Isaias, Hurricanes Zeta and Laura, additional wildfires in the western United States, tornado activity in Tennessee, other severe wind storms and winter storms in several regions of the United States and civil unrest. Catastrophe and non-catastrophe weather-related losses in 2021 were reduced by the full $350 million of recoveries available under the Company's 2021 Underlying Property Aggregate Catastrophe Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance Treaty. Catastrophe and non-catastrophe weather-related losses, including losses from wildfires, in 2020 were reduced by the full $280 million of recoveries available under the Company's 2020 Underlying Property Aggregate Catastrophe Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance Treaty.
Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2020 included subrogation recoveries related to wildfires in California in 2017 and 2018, which are discussed in more detail in note 8 of notes to the consolidated financial statements. Factors contributing to net prior year reserve development during the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019 are discussed in more detail in note 8 of notes to the consolidated financial statements.
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Significant Catastrophe Losses
The Company defines a “catastrophe” as an event:
•that is designated a catastrophe by internationally recognized organizations that track and report on insured losses resulting from catastrophic events, such as Property Claim Services (PCS) for events in the United States and Canada; and
•for which the Company’s estimates of its ultimate losses before reinsurance and taxes exceed a pre-established dollar threshold.
The Company’s threshold for disclosing catastrophes is primarily determined at the reportable segment level. If a threshold for one segment or a combination thereof is exceeded and the other segments have losses from the same event, losses from the event are identified as catastrophe losses in the segment results and for the consolidated results of the Company. Additionally, an aggregate threshold is applied for International business across all reportable segments. The threshold for 2021 ranged from approximately $20 million to $30 million of losses before reinsurance and taxes.
The following table presents the amount of losses recorded by the Company for significant catastrophes that occurred in 2021, 2020 and 2019, the amount of net unfavorable (favorable) prior year reserve development recognized in 2021 and 2020 for catastrophes that occurred in 2020 and 2019, and the estimate of ultimate losses for those catastrophes at December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019. For purposes of the table, a significant catastrophe is an event for which the Company estimates its ultimate losses will be $100 million or more after reinsurance and before taxes.
| Losses Incurred / Unfavorable (Favorable) Prior Year Reserve Development for the Year Ended December 31, | Estimated Ultimate Losses at December 31, | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in millions, pre-tax and net of reinsurance)(1) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||||
| PCS Serial Number: | ||||||||||||||
| 33 — Severe wind storms | (9) | 8 | 250 | 249 | 258 | 250 | ||||||||
| 61 — Severe wind storms and tornadoes | (13) | 8 | 109 | 104 | 117 | 109 | ||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||||
| PCS Serial Number: | ||||||||||||||
| 16 — Tennessee tornado activity | (9) | 151 | n/a | 142 | 151 | n/a | ||||||||
| 19 — Severe storms | (9) | 134 | n/a | 125 | 134 | n/a | ||||||||
| 20 — Severe storms | (25) | 165 | n/a | 140 | 165 | n/a | ||||||||
| 33 — Civil unrest | (7) | 100 | n/a | 93 | 100 | n/a | ||||||||
| 44 — Tropical Storm Isaias | (22) | 140 | n/a | 118 | 140 | n/a | ||||||||
| 46 — Midwest derecho | (10) | 212 | n/a | 202 | 212 | n/a | ||||||||
| 68 — California wildfire - Glass fire (2) | (9) | 145 | n/a | 136 | 145 | n/a | ||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||||
| PCS Serial Number: | ||||||||||||||
| 15 — Winter storms | 228 | n/a | n/a | 228 | n/a | n/a | ||||||||
| 17 — Winter storms | 508 | n/a | n/a | 508 | n/a | n/a | ||||||||
| 29 — Severe wind storms | 105 | n/a | n/a | 105 | n/a | n/a | ||||||||
| 60 — Hurricane Ida | 417 | n/a | n/a | 417 | n/a | n/a | ||||||||
| 76 — Tornado outbreak | 131 | n/a | n/a | 131 | n/a | n/a |
___________________________________________
(1) Amounts are reported pre-tax and net of recoveries under all applicable reinsurance treaties, except for the Company's 2021, 2020 and 2019 Underlying Property Aggregate Catastrophe Excess-of-Loss Treaties. Those treaties covered the accumulation of certain property losses arising from one or multiple occurrences (both catastrophe and non-catastrophe events) for the period January 1, 2021 through and
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including December 31, 2021, the period January 1, 2020 through and including December 31, 2020 and the period January 1, 2019 through and including December 31, 2019, respectively. As a result, the benefit from those treaties are not included in the table as the allocation of the treaties' benefit to each identified catastrophe changes each time there are additional events or changes in estimated losses from any covered event.
(2) In addition to the Glass fire, there were 16 other PCS-designated wildfires in 2020. While none of the 16 wildfires were individually large enough to meet the Company's threshold for disclosure as a significant catastrophe in this table, total losses in 2020 from those wildfires were $169 million, of which two wildfires totaling $73 million met the Company's threshold for disclosure as catastrophes.
n/a: not applicable.
Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2021 was $5.04 billion, $270 million or 6% higher than in 2020. The increase in 2021 was consistent with the increase in earned premiums. Amortization of deferred acquisition costs is discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2021 were $4.68 billion, $168 million or 4% higher than in 2020, primarily reflecting the impact of costs associated with higher business volumes. The benefit of lower net expenses related to COVID-19 and related economic conditions in 2021 was higher than in 2020. General and administrative expenses are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
Interest Expense
Interest expense in 2021 and 2020 was $340 million and $339 million, respectively.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2021 was $796 million, $256 million or 47% higher than in 2020, primarily reflecting the impact of the $1.22 billion increase in income before income taxes in 2021.
The Company’s effective tax rate was 18% and 17% in 2021 and 2020, respectively. The effective tax rates in both years were lower than the statutory rate of 21%, primarily due to the impact of tax-exempt investment income on the calculation of the Company’s income tax provision.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 94.5% in 2021 was 0.5 points lower than the combined ratio of 95.0% in 2020. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 65.1% in 2021 was comparable to the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio in 2020. The underwriting expense ratio of 29.4% in 2021 was 0.5 points lower than the underwriting expense ratio of 29.9% in 2020.
Catastrophe losses in 2021 and 2020 accounted for 6.0 points and 5.5 points, respectively, of the combined ratio. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2021 and 2020 provided 1.8 points and 1.2 points of benefit, respectively, to the combined ratio. The combined ratio excluding prior year reserve development and catastrophe losses ("underlying combined ratio") in 2021 was 0.4 points lower than the 2020 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) earned pricing that exceeded loss cost trends in Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty Insurance, (ii) a net favorable impact associated with COVID-19 and related economic conditions in Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty Insurance in the aggregate compared to a net charge in 2020 and (iii) a lower expense ratio, partially offset by (iv) higher losses in the automobile product line in Personal Insurance due to a comparison to a low level of loss activity (net of premium refunds) in 2020 as a result of the pandemic and, to a lesser extent, elevated severity in the current year and (v) higher losses in the homeowners and other product line in Personal Insurance.
The combined ratio continues to be impacted by the tort environment, including more aggressive attorney involvement in insurance claims.
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Written Premiums
Consolidated gross and net written premiums were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | |||||||
| Business Insurance | $ | 17,829 | $ | 17,060 | $ | 17,151 | ||||
| Bond & Specialty Insurance | 3,725 | 3,184 | 2,931 | |||||||
| Personal Insurance | 12,690 | 11,519 | 10,981 | |||||||
| Total | $ | 34,244 | $ | 31,763 | $ | 31,063 |
| Net Written Premiums | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | |||||||
| Business Insurance | $ | 16,092 | $ | 15,431 | $ | 15,629 | ||||
| Bond & Specialty Insurance | 3,376 | 2,951 | 2,739 | |||||||
| Personal Insurance | 12,491 | 11,350 | 10,783 | |||||||
| Total | $ | 31,959 | $ | 29,732 | $ | 29,151 |
Gross and net written premiums in 2021 increased by 8% and 7%, respectively, over 2020. Gross and net written premiums in 2021 were not materially impacted by COVID-19 and related economic conditions. Gross and net written premiums in Business Insurance in 2021 increased by 5% and 4%, respectively, over 2020. Gross and net written premiums in Business Insurance in 2020 were negatively impacted by reduced exposures, reflecting the impact of COVID-19 and related economic conditions, including a decrease in new business levels. Gross and net written premiums in Bond & Specialty Insurance in 2021 increased by 17% and 14%, respectively, over 2020. Gross and net written premiums in Bond & Specialty Insurance in 2020 were negatively impacted by lower surety volumes, primarily due to COVID-19 and related economic conditions. Gross and net written premiums in Personal Insurance in 2021 both increased by 10% over 2020. Gross and net written premiums in Personal Insurance in 2020 were negatively impacted by premium refunds provided to personal automobile customers in response to COVID-19 and related economic conditions. Factors contributing to the increases in gross and net written premiums in each segment are discussed in more detail in the segment discussions that follow.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS BY SEGMENT
Business Insurance
Results of Business Insurance were as follows:
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 15,734 | $ | 15,294 | $ | 15,300 | |||||
| Net investment income | 2,265 | 1,633 | 1,816 | ||||||||
| Fee income | 375 | 405 | 437 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 235 | 176 | 155 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 18,609 | 17,508 | 17,708 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 15,725 | 15,986 | 16,093 | ||||||||
| Segment income before income taxes | 2,884 | 1,522 | 1,615 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense | 499 | 213 | 223 | ||||||||
| Segment income | $ | 2,385 | $ | 1,309 | $ | 1,392 | |||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 65.0 | % | 69.4 | % | 70.3 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 30.7 | 30.9 | 30.6 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 95.7 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.9 | % |
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Overview
Segment income in 2021 was $2.39 billion, $1.08 billion or 82% higher than segment income of $1.31 billion in 2020. The increase in segment income before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) higher net investment income, (ii) higher underlying underwriting margins and (iii) net favorable prior year reserve development of $173 million in 2021 compared to net unfavorable prior year reserve development of $91 million in 2020, partially offset by (iv) higher catastrophe losses (net of recoveries under the Underlying Property Aggregate Catastrophe Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance treaties). Catastrophe losses in 2021 and 2020 were $793 million and $645 million, respectively. The higher underlying underwriting margins primarily reflected the impacts of (i) earned pricing that exceeded loss cost trends, (ii) a favorable impact associated with COVID-19 and related economic conditions and (iii) higher business volumes. Income tax expense in 2021 was higher than in 2020, primarily reflecting the impact of the increase in segment income before income taxes.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2021 were $15.73 billion, $440 million or 3% higher than in 2020. Earned premiums in 2021 were negatively impacted by lower net written premiums primarily in the latter half of 2020 due to a modest reduction in exposures and a decrease in new business volume, in each case impacted by COVID-19 and related economic conditions. Earned premiums in 2020 were negatively impacted by reduced exposures and reductions in the Company's estimate of ultimate audit premiums receivable, in each case reflecting the impact of COVID-19 and related economic conditions, including a decrease in new business levels.
Net Investment Income
Net investment income in 2021 was $2.27 billion, $632 million or 39% higher than in 2020. Refer to the “Net Investment Income” section of the “Consolidated Results of Operations” discussion for a description of the factors contributing to the increase in the Company’s consolidated net investment income in 2021 compared with 2020. In addition, refer to note 2 of notes to the consolidated financial statements for a discussion of the Company’s net investment income allocation methodology.
Fee Income
National Accounts is the primary source of fee income due to revenue from its large deductible policies and service businesses, which include risk management, claims administration, loss control and risk management information services provided to third parties, as well as policy issuance and claims management services to workers’ compensation residual market pools. Fee income in 2021 was $375 million, $30 million or 7% lower than in 2020, reflecting lower claim volume under administration and lower serviced premium volume from the workers' compensation residual market pool.
Other Revenues
Other revenues in 2021 were $235 million, $59 million or 34% higher than in 2020, primarily reflecting growth in revenues from Simply Business. Other revenues also included installment premium charges and other policyholder service charges.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2021 were $10.40 billion, $406 million or 4% lower than in 2020, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) reduced exposures, including the impact of COVID-19 and related economic conditions, and (ii) net favorable prior year reserve development compared to net unfavorable prior year reserve development in 2020, partially offset by (iii) loss cost trends and (iv) higher catastrophe losses. Claims and claim adjustment expenses in both 2021 and 2020 included favorable loss activity related to the impact of COVID-19 and related economic conditions. Catastrophe losses and non-catastrophe weather-related losses in 2021 and 2020 were reduced by recoveries under the Company's Underlying Property Aggregate Catastrophe Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance treaties.
Net unfavorable prior year reserve development in 2020 included the favorable impact of subrogation recoveries related to wildfires in California in 2017 and 2018. Factors contributing to net prior year reserve development during the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019 are discussed in more detail in note 8 of notes to the consolidated financial statements.
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Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2021 was $2.58 billion, $63 million or 3% higher than in 2020, consistent with the increase in earned premiums.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2021 were $2.75 billion, $82 million or 3% higher than in 2020. The increase in 2021 was primarily in support of business growth. General and administrative expenses in both 2021 and 2020 included the benefit of lower travel-related expenses attributable to COVID-19 and related economic conditions. General and administrative expenses in 2020 also included an increased allowance for expected credit losses on premiums receivable attributable to COVID-19 and related economic conditions.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2021 was $499 million, $286 million or 134% higher than in 2020, primarily reflecting the impact of the $1.36 billion increase in income before income taxes in 2021.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 95.7% in 2021 was 4.6 points lower than the combined ratio of 100.3% in 2020. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 65.0% in 2021 was 4.4 points lower than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 69.4% in 2020. The underwriting expense ratio of 30.7% in 2021 was 0.2 points lower than the underwriting expense ratio of 30.9% in 2020.
Catastrophe losses in 2021 and 2020 accounted for 5.1 points and 4.2 points, respectively, of the combined ratio. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2021 provided 1.1 points of benefit to the combined ratio. Net unfavorable prior year reserve development in 2020 accounted for 0.6 points of the combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio in 2021 was 3.8 points lower than the 2020 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) earned pricing that exceeded loss cost trends and (ii) a favorable impact associated with COVID-19 and related economic conditions in 2021 compared to a net charge in 2020.
Written Premiums
Business Insurance’s gross and net written premiums by market were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Select Accounts | $ | 2,860 | $ | 2,848 | $ | 2,945 | |||||
| Middle Market | 9,487 | 9,017 | 9,073 | ||||||||
| National Accounts | 1,517 | 1,540 | 1,603 | ||||||||
| National Property and Other | 2,701 | 2,460 | 2,279 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 16,565 | 15,865 | 15,900 | ||||||||
| International | 1,264 | 1,195 | 1,251 | ||||||||
| Total Business Insurance | $ | 17,829 | $ | 17,060 | $ | 17,151 |
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| Net Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Select Accounts | $ | 2,833 | $ | 2,821 | $ | 2,911 | |||||
| Middle Market | 8,933 | 8,511 | 8,630 | ||||||||
| National Accounts | 987 | 996 | 1,051 | ||||||||
| National Property and Other | 2,265 | 2,086 | 1,965 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 15,018 | 14,414 | 14,557 | ||||||||
| International | 1,074 | 1,017 | 1,072 | ||||||||
| Total Business Insurance | $ | 16,092 | $ | 15,431 | $ | 15,629 |
Gross and net written premiums in 2021 increased by 5% and 4%, respectively, over 2020. Gross and net written premiums in 2021 were not materially impacted by COVID-19 and related economic conditions. Gross and net written premiums in 2020 were negatively impacted by a modest reduction in exposures and a decrease in new business volume, both impacted by COVID-19 and related economic conditions.
Select Accounts. Net written premiums of $2.83 billion in 2021 were comparable with 2020. Retention rates remained strong in 2021. Renewal premium changes in 2021 remained positive and were higher than in 2020. New business premiums in 2021 decreased from 2020.
Middle Market. Net written premiums of $8.93 billion in 2021 increased by 5% over 2020. Retention rates remained strong in 2021. Renewal premium changes in 2021 remained positive and were higher than in 2020. New business premiums in 2021 increased over 2020.
National Accounts. Net written premiums of $987 million in 2021 decreased by 1% from 2020, reflecting, in part, lower audit premium adjustments. Retention rates remained strong in 2021. Renewal premium changes in 2021 were positive and slightly higher than 2020. New business premiums in 2021 increased over 2020.
National Property and Other. Net written premiums of $2.27 billion in 2021 increased by 9% over 2020. Retention rates remained strong in 2021 and increased over 2020. Renewal premium changes in 2021 remained positive and were lower than in 2020. New business premiums in 2021 decreased from 2020.
International. Net written premiums of $1.07 billion in 2021 increased by 6% over 2020, primarily driven by changes in foreign currency exchange rates and the Company's operations in the United Kingdom and at Lloyd's.
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Bond & Specialty Insurance
Results of Bond & Specialty Insurance were as follows:
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 3,138 | $ | 2,823 | $ | 2,565 | |||||
| Net investment income | 247 | 213 | 233 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 23 | 27 | 26 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 3,408 | 3,063 | 2,824 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 2,575 | 2,483 | 2,055 | ||||||||
| Segment income before income taxes | 833 | 580 | 769 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense | 165 | 107 | 151 | ||||||||
| Segment income | $ | 668 | $ | 473 | $ | 618 | |||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 46.6 | % | 51.5 | % | 42.2 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 34.9 | 35.9 | 37.3 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 81.5 | % | 87.4 | % | 79.5 | % |
Overview
Segment income in 2021 was $668 million, $195 million or 41% higher than segment income of $473 million in 2020. The increase in segment income before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) higher underlying underwriting margins, (ii) net favorable prior year reserve development of $105 million in 2021 compared to net unfavorable prior year reserve development of $1 million in 2020 and (iii) higher net investment income, partially offset by (iv) higher catastrophe losses. Catastrophe losses in 2021 and 2020 were $40 million and $11 million, respectively. The higher underlying underwriting margins primarily reflected the impacts of (i) earned pricing that exceeded loss cost trends, (ii) higher business volumes and (iii) a lower level of losses associated with COVID-19 and related economic conditions. Income tax expense in 2021 was higher than in 2020, primarily reflecting the impact of the increase in segment income before income taxes.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2021 were $3.14 billion, $315 million or 11% higher than in 2020, primarily reflecting an increase in net written premiums over the preceding twelve months. Earned premiums in 2021 and 2020 were not materially impacted by COVID-19 and related economic conditions.
Net Investment Income
Net investment income in 2021 was $247 million, $34 million or 16% higher than in 2020. Included in Bond & Specialty Insurance are certain legal entities whose invested assets and related net investment income are reported exclusively in this segment and not allocated among all business segments. Refer to the “Net Investment Income” section of the “Consolidated Results of Operations” discussion for a description of the factors contributing to the increase in the Company’s consolidated net investment income in 2021 as compared with 2020. In addition, refer to note 2 of notes to the consolidated financial statements for a discussion of the Company’s net investment income allocation methodology.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2021 were $1.47 billion, $9 million or 1% higher than in 2020, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) higher business volumes and (ii) higher catastrophe losses, partially offset by (iii) net favorable prior year reserve development compared to net unfavorable prior year reserve development in 2020 and (iv) a lower level of losses associated with COVID-19 and related economic conditions.
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Factors contributing to net prior year reserve development during the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019 are discussed in more detail in note 8 of notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2021 was $570 million, $51 million or 10% higher than in 2020, generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2021 were $532 million, $32 million or 6% higher than in 2020, primarily reflecting the impact of higher business volumes. The benefit of lower travel-related expenses related to COVID-19 and related economic conditions in 2021 was higher than in 2020.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2021 was $165 million, $58 million or 54% higher than in 2020, primarily reflecting the impact of the $253 million increase in income before income taxes in 2021.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 81.5% in 2021 was 5.9 points lower than the combined ratio of 87.4% in 2020. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 46.6% in 2021 was 4.9 points lower than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 51.5% in 2020. The underwriting expense ratio of 34.9% in 2021 was 1.0 points lower than the underwriting expense ratio of 35.9% in 2020.
Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2021 provided 3.3 points of benefit to the combined ratio. Net unfavorable prior year reserve development had no impact on the combined ratio in 2020. Catastrophe losses in 2021 and 2020 accounted for 1.3 points and 0.4 points, respectively, of the combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio in 2021 was 3.5 points lower than the 2020 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) earned pricing that exceeded loss cost trends, (ii) a lower level of losses associated with COVID-19 and related economic conditions and (iii) a lower expense ratio.
Written Premiums
Bond & Specialty Insurance’s gross and net written premiums were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Management Liability | $ | 2,243 | $ | 1,920 | $ | 1,720 | |||||
| Surety | 952 | 910 | 926 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 3,195 | 2,830 | 2,646 | ||||||||
| International | 530 | 354 | 285 | ||||||||
| Total Bond & Specialty Insurance | $ | 3,725 | $ | 3,184 | $ | 2,931 |
| Net Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Management Liability | $ | 1,983 | $ | 1,769 | $ | 1,605 | |||||
| Surety | 888 | 845 | 866 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 2,871 | 2,614 | 2,471 | ||||||||
| International | 505 | 337 | 268 | ||||||||
| Total Bond & Specialty Insurance | $ | 3,376 | $ | 2,951 | $ | 2,739 |
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Gross written premiums and net written premiums in 2021 increased by 17% and 14%, respectively, over 2020. Gross and net written premiums in 2021 were not materially impacted by COVID-19 and related economic conditions. Gross and net written premiums in 2020 were negatively impacted by lower surety volumes, primarily due to COVID-19 and related economic conditions.
Domestic. Net written premiums in 2021 were $2.87 billion, $257 million or 10% higher than in 2020. Excluding the surety line of business, for which the following are not relevant measures, retention rates remained strong in 2021, but declined from 2020. Renewal premium changes in 2021 remained positive and were higher than in 2020. New business premiums in 2021 decreased from 2020.
International. Net written premiums in 2021 were $505 million, $168 million or 50% higher than in 2020, primarily driven by increases in the United Kingdom and Canada, including the impact of changes in foreign currency exchange rates.
Personal Insurance
Results of Personal Insurance were as follows:
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | |||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 11,983 | $ | 10,927 | $ | 10,407 | |||||
| Net investment income | 521 | 381 | 419 | ||||||||
| Fee income | 27 | 24 | 22 | ||||||||
| Other revenues | 97 | 76 | 87 | ||||||||
| Total revenues | 12,628 | 11,408 | 10,935 | ||||||||
| Total claims and expenses | 11,689 | 9,905 | 9,916 | ||||||||
| Segment income before income taxes | 939 | 1,503 | 1,019 | ||||||||
| Income tax expense | 179 | 308 | 195 | ||||||||
| Segment income | $ | 760 | $ | 1,195 | $ | 824 | |||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | 70.3 | % | 62.8 | % | 68.0 | % | |||||
| Underwriting expense ratio | 26.2 | 26.9 | 26.2 | ||||||||
| Combined ratio | 96.5 | % | 89.7 | % | 94.2 | % |
Overview
Segment income in 2021 was $760 million, $435 million or 36% lower than segment income of $1.20 billion in 2020. The decrease in segment income before income taxes primarily reflected the pre-tax impacts of (i) lower underlying underwriting margins, (ii) lower net favorable prior year reserve development and (iii) higher catastrophe losses (net of recoveries under the Underlying Property Aggregate Catastrophe Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance treaties), partially offset by (iv) higher net investment income. Catastrophe losses in 2021 and 2020 were $1.01 billion and $957 million, respectively. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2021 and 2020 was $260 million and $443 million, respectively. The lower underlying underwriting margins primarily reflected the impacts of (i) higher losses in the automobile product line due to a comparison to a low level of loss activity (net of premium refunds) in 2020 as a result of the pandemic and, to a lesser extent, elevated severity in the current year and (ii) higher losses in the homeowners and other product line, partially offset by (iii) higher business volumes. Income tax expense in 2021 was lower than in 2020, primarily reflecting the impact of the decrease in segment income before income taxes.
Revenues
Earned Premiums
Earned premiums in 2021 were $11.98 billion, $1.06 billion or 10% higher than in 2020, primarily reflecting the increase in net written premiums over the preceding twelve months. Net written and earned premiums in 2020 were reduced by premium refunds provided to personal automobile customers in response to COVID-19 and related economic conditions.
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Net Investment Income
Net investment income in 2021 was $521 million, $140 million or 37% higher than in 2020. Refer to the “Net Investment Income” section of the “Consolidated Results of Operations” discussion for a description of the factors contributing to the increase in the Company’s consolidated net investment income in 2021 as compared with 2020. In addition, refer to note 2 of notes to the consolidated financial statements for a discussion of the Company’s net investment income allocation methodology.
Other Revenues
Other revenues in all years presented included installment premium charges. Installment premium charges in 2021 were higher than in 2020, primarily attributable to the impact of billing relief actions offered to customers as a result of COVID-19 in 2020.
Claims and Expenses
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
Claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2021 were $8.43 billion, $1.57 billion or 23% higher than in 2020, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) higher losses in the automobile product line due to a comparison to a low level of loss activity in 2020 as a result of the pandemic and, to a lesser extent, elevated severity in the current year, (ii) higher business volumes, (iii) loss cost trends, (iv) lower net favorable prior year reserve development, (v) higher losses in the homeowners and other product line and (vi) higher catastrophe losses. Catastrophe losses and non-catastrophe weather-related losses, in both 2021 and 2020, were reduced by recoveries under the Company's Underlying Property Aggregate Catastrophe Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance treaties.
Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2020 primarily resulted from subrogation recoveries related to wildfires in
California in 2017 and 2018. Factors contributing to net favorable prior year reserve development during the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019 are discussed in more detail in note 8 of notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Amortization of Deferred Acquisition Costs
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs in 2021 was $1.89 billion, $156 million or 9% higher than in 2020, generally consistent with the increase in earned premiums.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses in 2021 were $1.37 billion, $56 million or 4% higher than in 2020. The increase in 2021 primarily reflected higher business volumes. The total in 2020 included an increased allowance for expected credit losses on premiums receivable due to the impact of COVID-19 and related economic conditions.
Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense in 2021 was $179 million, $129 million or 42% lower than in 2020, primarily reflecting the impact of the $564 million decrease in income before income taxes in 2021.
Combined Ratio
The combined ratio of 96.5% in 2021 was 6.8 points higher than the combined ratio of 89.7% in 2020. The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 70.3% in 2021 was 7.5 points higher than the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 62.8% in 2020. The underwriting expense ratio of 26.2% in 2021 was 0.7 points lower than the underwriting expense ratio of 26.9% in 2020.
Catastrophe losses accounted for 8.5 points and 8.8 points of the combined ratio in 2021 and 2020, respectively. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2021 and 2020 provided 2.2 points and 4.1 points of benefit, respectively, to the combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio in 2021 was 5.2 points higher than the 2020 ratio on the same basis, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) higher losses in the automobile product line due to a comparison to a low level of loss activity (net of premium refunds) in 2020 as a result of the pandemic and, to a lesser extent, elevated severity in the current year and (ii) higher losses in the homeowners and other product line.
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Written Premiums
Personal Insurance’s gross and net written premiums were as follows:
| Gross Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Automobile | $ | 5,852 | $ | 5,395 | $ | 5,443 | |||||
| Homeowners and Other | 6,137 | 5,457 | 4,814 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 11,989 | 10,852 | 10,257 | ||||||||
| International | 701 | 667 | 724 | ||||||||
| Total Personal Insurance | $ | 12,690 | $ | 11,519 | $ | 10,981 |
| Net Written Premiums | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||
| Domestic: | |||||||||||
| Automobile | $ | 5,827 | $ | 5,369 | $ | 5,412 | |||||
| Homeowners and Other | 5,980 | 5,329 | 4,664 | ||||||||
| Total Domestic | 11,807 | 10,698 | 10,076 | ||||||||
| International | 684 | 652 | 707 | ||||||||
| Total Personal Insurance | $ | 12,491 | $ | 11,350 | $ | 10,783 |
Gross and net written premiums in 2021 both increased by 10% over 2020. Gross and net written premiums in 2021 were not materially impacted by COVID-19 and related economic conditions. Gross and net written premiums in 2020 were negatively impacted by premium refunds provided to personal automobile customers in response to COVID-19 and related economic conditions.
Domestic
Automobile net written premiums of $5.83 billion in 2021 increased by 9% over 2020. Net written premiums in 2020 were negatively impacted by premium refunds provided to personal automobile customers in response to COVID-19 and related economic conditions. Retention rates remained strong in 2021. Renewal premium changes in 2021 were not significant and were lower than in the same periods of 2020. New business premiums in 2021 increased over 2020.
Homeowners and Other net written premiums of $5.98 billion in 2021 increased by 12% over 2020. Retention rates remained strong in 2021. Renewal premium changes in 2021 remained positive and were higher than in 2020. New business premiums in 2021 increased over 2020.
For its Domestic business, Personal Insurance had approximately 8.9 million and 8.4 million active policies at December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively.
International
International net written premiums of $684 million in 2021 increased by 5% over 2020, primarily driven by changes in foreign currency exchange rates.
For its International business, Personal Insurance had approximately 477,000 and 491,000 active policies at December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively.
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Interest Expense and Other
| (for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income (loss) | $ | (291) | $ | (291) | $ | (297) |
The Income (loss) for Interest Expense and Other in both 2021 and 2020 was $(291) million. Pre-tax interest expense in 2021 and 2020 was $340 million and $339 million, respectively. After-tax interest expense in 2021 and 2020 was $269 million and $268 million, respectively.
ASBESTOS CLAIMS AND LITIGATION
The Company believes that the property and casualty insurance industry has suffered from court decisions and other trends that have expanded insurance coverage for asbestos claims far beyond the original intent of insurers and policyholders. The Company has received and continues to receive a significant number of asbestos claims. Factors underlying these claim filings include continued intensive advertising by lawyers seeking asbestos claimants and the focus by plaintiffs on defendants, such as manufacturers of talcum powder, who were not traditionally primary targets of asbestos litigation. The focus on these defendants is primarily the result of the number of traditional asbestos defendants who have sought bankruptcy protection in previous years. The bankruptcy of many traditional defendants has also caused increased settlement demands against those policyholders who are not in bankruptcy but remain in the tort system. Currently, in many jurisdictions, those who allege very serious injury and who can present credible medical evidence of their injuries are receiving priority trial settings in the courts, while those who have not shown any credible disease manifestation are having their hearing dates delayed or placed on an inactive docket. Prioritizing claims involving credible evidence of injuries, along with the focus on defendants who were not traditionally primary targets of asbestos litigation, contributes to the claims and claim adjustment expense payment patterns experienced by the Company. The Company’s asbestos-related claims and claim adjustment expense experience also has been impacted by the unavailability of other insurance sources potentially available to policyholders, whether through exhaustion of policy limits or through the insolvency of other participating insurers.
The Company continues to be involved in disputes, including litigation, with a number of policyholders, some of whom are in bankruptcy, over coverage for asbestos-related claims. Many coverage disputes with policyholders are only resolved through settlement agreements. Because many policyholders make exaggerated demands, it is difficult to predict the outcome of settlement negotiations. Settlements involving bankrupt policyholders may include extensive releases which are favorable to the Company, but which could result in settlements for larger amounts than originally anticipated. Although the Company has seen a reduction in the overall risk associated with these disputes, it remains difficult to predict the ultimate cost of these claims. As in the past, the Company will continue to pursue settlement opportunities.
In addition to claims against policyholders, proceedings have been launched directly against insurers, including the Company, by individuals challenging insurers’ conduct with respect to the handling of past asbestos claims and by individuals seeking damages arising from alleged asbestos-related bodily injuries. It is possible that other direct actions against insurers, including the Company, could be filed in the future. It is difficult to predict the outcome of these proceedings, including whether the plaintiffs would be able to sustain these actions against insurers based on novel legal theories of liability. The Company believes it has meritorious defenses to any such claims and has received favorable rulings in certain jurisdictions.
Because each policyholder presents different liability and coverage issues, the Company generally reviews the exposure presented by each policyholder with open claims at least annually. Among the factors the Company may consider in the course of this review are: available insurance coverage, including the role of any umbrella or excess insurance the Company has issued to the policyholder; limits and deductibles; an analysis of the policyholder’s potential liability; the jurisdictions involved; past and anticipated future claim activity and loss development on pending claims; past settlement values of similar claims; allocated claim adjustment expense; the potential role of other insurance; the role, if any, of non-asbestos claims or potential non-asbestos claims in any resolution process; and applicable coverage defenses or determinations, if any, including the determination as to whether or not an asbestos claim is a products/completed operation claim subject to an aggregate limit and the available coverage, if any, for that claim.
The Company's net asbestos reserves at both December 31, 2021 and 2020 were $1.34 billion, and include case reserves, IBNR reserves and reserves for the costs of defending asbestos-related coverage litigation. IBNR reserves include amounts for new claims and adverse development on existing policyholders, as well as reserves for claims from policyholders reporting asbestos claims for the first time and for policyholders for which there is, or may be, litigation. Asbestos reserves also include amounts related to certain policyholders with whom the Company has entered into permanent settlement agreements, which are based on the expected payout for each policyholder under the applicable agreement. Additionally, a portion of the asbestos reserves
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relates to assumed reinsurance contracts primarily consisting of reinsurance of excess coverage, including various pool participations.
The Company conducts an annual review of domestic policyholders with open asbestos claims. Policyholders are identified for this review based upon, among other factors: a combination of past payments and current case reserves in excess of a specified threshold (currently $100,000), perceived level of exposure, number of reported claims, products/completed operations and potential “non-product” exposures, size of policyholder and geographic distribution of products or services sold by the policyholder.
In the third quarter of 2021, the Company completed its annual in-depth asbestos claim review, including a review of policyholders with open claims and litigation cases for potential product and "non-product" liability, and noted the continuation of the following trends:
•a high level of litigation activity in certain jurisdictions involving individuals alleging serious asbestos-related illness, primarily involving mesothelioma claims;
•while overall payment patterns have been generally stable, there has been an increase in severity for certain policyholders due to the high level of litigation activity; and
•a moderate level of asbestos-related bankruptcy activity.
Both the number of policyholders with open asbestos claims and net asbestos-related payments decreased slightly when compared to 2020. Payments on behalf of these policyholders continue to be influenced by a high level of litigation activity in a limited number of jurisdictions where individuals alleging serious asbestos-related injury, primarily mesothelioma, continue to target defendants who were not traditionally primary targets of asbestos litigation.
The Company’s quarterly asbestos reserve reviews include an analysis of exposure and claim payment patterns by policyholder, as well as recent settlements, policyholder bankruptcies, judicial rulings and legislative actions. The Company also analyzes developing payment patterns among policyholders and the assumed reinsurance component of reserves, as well as projected reinsurance billings and recoveries. In addition, the Company reviews its historical gross and net loss and expense paid experience, year-by-year, to assess any emerging trends, fluctuations, or characteristics suggested by the aggregate paid activity. Conventional actuarial methods are not utilized to establish asbestos reserves, and the Company’s evaluations have not resulted in a reliable method to determine a meaningful average asbestos defense or indemnity payment.
The completion of these reviews and analyses in 2021, 2020 and 2019 resulted in $225 million, $295 million and $220 million increases, respectively, to the Company’s net asbestos reserves. In each year, the reserve increases were primarily driven by increases in the Company’s estimate of projected settlement and defense costs related to a broad number of policyholders. The increase in the estimate of projected settlement and defense costs primarily resulted from payment trends that continue to be higher than previously anticipated due to the continued high level of mesothelioma claim filings and the impact of the current litigation environment surrounding those claims discussed above. Over the past decade, the property and casualty insurance industry, including the Company, has experienced net unfavorable prior year reserve development with regard to asbestos reserves, but the Company believes that over that period there has been a reduction in the volatility associated with the Company’s overall asbestos exposure as the overall asbestos environment has evolved from one dominated by exposure to significant litigation risks, particularly coverage disputes relating to policyholders in bankruptcy who were asserting that their claims were not subject to the aggregate limits contained in their policies, to an environment primarily driven by a frequency of litigation related to individuals with mesothelioma. The Company’s overall view of the current underlying asbestos environment is essentially unchanged from recent periods, and there remains a high degree of uncertainty with respect to future exposure to asbestos claims.
Net asbestos paid loss and loss expenses in 2021, 2020 and 2019 were $221 million, $237 million and $224 million, respectively. Approximately 9%, 1% and 4% of total net paid losses in 2021, 2020 and 2019, respectively, related to policyholders with whom the Company entered into settlement agreements that limit those policyholders' ability to present future claims to the Company.
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The following table displays activity for asbestos losses and loss expenses and reserves:
| (at and for the year ended December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beginning reserves: | |||||||||||
| Gross | $ | 1,668 | $ | 1,601 | $ | 1,608 | |||||
| Ceded | (330) | (322) | (327) | ||||||||
| Net | 1,338 | 1,279 | 1,281 | ||||||||
| Incurred losses and loss expenses: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 287 | 362 | 268 | ||||||||
| Ceded | (62) | (67) | (48) | ||||||||
| Net | 225 | 295 | 220 | ||||||||
| Paid loss and loss expenses: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 267 | 295 | 277 | ||||||||
| Ceded | (46) | (58) | (53) | ||||||||
| Net | 221 | 237 | 224 | ||||||||
| Foreign exchange and other: | |||||||||||
| Gross | (1) | — | 2 | ||||||||
| Ceded | — | 1 | — | ||||||||
| Net | (1) | 1 | 2 | ||||||||
| Ending reserves: | |||||||||||
| Gross | 1,687 | 1,668 | 1,601 | ||||||||
| Ceded | (346) | (330) | (322) | ||||||||
| Net | $ | 1,341 | $ | 1,338 | $ | 1,279 |
ENVIRONMENTAL CLAIMS AND LITIGATION
The Company has received and continues to receive claims from policyholders who allege that they are liable for injury or damage arising out of the alleged storage, emissions or disposal of toxic substances, frequently under policies issued prior to the mid-1980s. These claims are mainly brought pursuant to various state or federal statutes that require a liable party to undertake or pay for environmental remediation. For example, the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) enables private parties as well as federal and state governments to take action with respect to releases and threatened releases of hazardous substances. This federal statute permits the recovery of response costs from some liable parties and may require liable parties to undertake their own remedial action. Liability under these statutes may be joint and several with other responsible parties. The Company has also been, and continues to be, involved in litigation involving insurance coverage issues pertaining to environmental claims. The Company believes that some court decisions pertaining to environmental claims have interpreted the insurance coverage to be broader than the original intent of the insurers and policyholders. For more information regarding environmental claims and litigation, see note 8 of notes to the consolidated financial statements.
In 2021, 2020 and 2019, the Company increased its net environmental reserves by $89 million, $54 million and $76 million, respectively. Net environmental paid loss and loss expenses in 2021, 2020 and 2019 were $75 million, $69 million and $90 million, respectively. Net environmental reserves were $321 million, $307 million and $321 million at December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019, respectively.
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADEQUACY OF ASBESTOS AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESERVES
As a result of the processes and procedures discussed above, management believes that the reserves carried for asbestos and environmental claims are appropriately established based upon known facts, current law and management’s judgment. However, the uncertainties surrounding the final resolution of these claims continue, and it is difficult to determine the ultimate exposure for asbestos and environmental claims and related litigation. As a result, these reserves are subject to revision as new information becomes available and as claims develop. The continuing uncertainties include, without limitation:
•the risks and lack of predictability inherent in complex litigation;
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•a further increase in the cost to resolve, and/or the number of, asbestos and environmental claims beyond that which is anticipated;
•the emergence of a greater number of asbestos claims than anticipated as a result of extended life expectancies resulting from medical advances and lifestyle improvements;
•the role of any umbrella or excess policies we have issued;
•the resolution or adjudication of disputes concerning coverage for asbestos and environmental claims in a manner inconsistent with our previous assessment of these disputes;
•the number and outcome of direct actions against us;
•future developments pertaining to our ability to recover reinsurance for asbestos and environmental claims;
•any impact on asbestos defendants we insure due to the bankruptcy of other asbestos defendants;
•the unavailability of other insurance sources potentially available to policyholders, whether through exhaustion of policy limits or through the insolvency of other participating insurers; and
•uncertainties arising from the insolvency or bankruptcy of policyholders.
Changes in the legal, regulatory and legislative environment may impact the future resolution of asbestos and environmental claims and result in adverse loss reserve development. The emergence of a greater number of asbestos or environmental claims beyond that which is anticipated may result in adverse loss reserve development. Changes in applicable legislation and future court and regulatory decisions and interpretations, including the outcome of legal challenges to legislative and/or judicial reforms establishing medical criteria for the pursuit of asbestos claims, could affect the settlement of asbestos and environmental claims. It is also difficult to predict the ultimate outcome of complex coverage disputes until settlement negotiations near completion and significant legal questions are resolved or, failing settlement, until the dispute is adjudicated. This is particularly the case with policyholders in bankruptcy where negotiations often involve a large number of claimants and other parties and require court approval to be effective. As part of its continuing analysis of asbestos and environmental reserves, the Company continues to study the implications of these and other developments.
Because of the uncertainties set forth above, additional liabilities may arise for amounts in excess of the Company’s current reserves. In addition, the Company’s estimate of claims and claim adjustment expenses may change. These additional liabilities or increases in estimates, or a range of either, cannot now be reasonably estimated and could result in income statement charges that could be material to the Company’s operating results in future periods.
INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
The Company’s invested assets at December 31, 2021 were $87.38 billion, of which 93% was invested in fixed maturity and short-term investments, 1% in equity securities, 1% in real estate investments and 5% in other investments. Because the primary purpose of the investment portfolio is to fund future claims payments, the Company employs a thoughtful investment philosophy that focuses on appropriate risk-adjusted returns. A significant majority of funds available for investment are deployed in a widely diversified portfolio of high quality, liquid, taxable U.S. government, tax-exempt and taxable U.S. municipal and taxable corporate and U.S. agency mortgage-backed bonds.
The carrying value of the Company’s fixed maturity portfolio at December 31, 2021 was $77.81 billion. The Company closely monitors the duration of its fixed maturity investments, and investment purchases and sales are executed with the objective of having adequate funds available to satisfy the Company’s insurance and debt obligations. The weighted average credit quality of the Company’s fixed maturity portfolio, both including and excluding U.S. Treasury securities, was “Aa2” at both December 31, 2021 and 2020. Below investment grade securities represented 1.4% and 1.8% of the total fixed maturity investment portfolio at December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The weighted average effective duration of fixed maturities and short-term securities was 4.2 (4.4 excluding short-term securities) at December 31, 2021 and 3.8 (4.0 excluding short-term securities) at December 31, 2020.
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The carrying values of investments in fixed maturities classified as available for sale at December 31, 2021 and 2020 were as follows:
| 2021 | 2020 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (at December 31, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | ||||||||
| U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government and government agencies and authorities | $ | 3,562 | Aaa/Aa1 | $ | 2,149 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||
| Obligations of states, municipalities and political subdivisions: | ||||||||||||
| Local general obligation | 19,667 | Aaa/Aa1 | 18,657 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Revenue | 11,940 | Aaa/Aa1 | 12,715 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| State general obligation | 1,223 | Aaa/Aa1 | 1,444 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Pre-refunded | 4,032 | Aaa/Aa1 | 3,544 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Total obligations of states, municipalities and political subdivisions | 36,862 | 36,360 | ||||||||||
| Debt securities issued by foreign governments | 1,041 | Aaa/Aa1 | 1,054 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| Mortgage-backed securities, collateralized mortgage obligations and pass-through securities | 1,817 | Aaa/Aa1 | 2,361 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||||||
| All other corporate bonds and redeemable preferred stock: | ||||||||||||
| Financial: | ||||||||||||
| Bank | 4,473 | A1 | 3,993 | A1 | ||||||||
| Insurance | 1,626 | Aa3 | 1,380 | Aa3 | ||||||||
| Finance/leasing | 34 | Ba3 | 22 | Ba3 | ||||||||
| Brokerage and asset management | 101 | Aa3 | 94 | Aa3 | ||||||||
| Total financial | 6,234 | 5,489 | ||||||||||
| Industrial | 19,459 | A3 | 17,883 | A3 | ||||||||
| Public utility | 4,706 | A2 | 4,255 | A2 | ||||||||
| Canadian municipal securities | 1,687 | Aa2 | 1,653 | Aa2 | ||||||||
| Sovereign corporate securities (2) | 607 | Aaa | 609 | Aaa | ||||||||
| Commercial mortgage-backed securities and project loans (3) | 1,304 | Aaa | 1,418 | Aaa | ||||||||
| Asset-backed and other | 531 | Aa1 | 772 | Aa1 | ||||||||
| Total all other corporate bonds and redeemable preferred stock | 34,528 | 32,079 | ||||||||||
| Total fixed maturities | $ | 77,810 | Aa2 | $ | 74,003 | Aa2 |
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(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist.
(2)Sovereign corporate securities include corporate securities that are backed by a government and include sovereign banks and securities issued under the Federal Ship Financing Programs.
(3)Included in commercial mortgage-backed securities and project loans at December 31, 2021 and 2020 were $207 million and $392 million of securities guaranteed by the U.S. government, respectively.
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The following table sets forth the Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio rated using external ratings agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist:
| (at December 31, 2021, in millions) | Carrying Value | Percent of Total Carrying Value | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quality Rating: | |||||||
| Aaa | $ | 33,323 | 42.8 | % | |||
| Aa | 18,140 | 23.3 | |||||
| A | 14,757 | 19.0 | |||||
| Baa | 10,483 | 13.5 | |||||
| Total investment grade | 76,703 | 98.6 | |||||
| Below investment grade | 1,107 | 1.4 | |||||
| Total fixed maturities | $ | 77,810 | 100.0 | % |
Obligations of States, Municipalities and Political Subdivisions
The Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio at December 31, 2021 and 2020 included $36.86 billion and $36.36 billion, respectively, of securities which are obligations of states, municipalities and political subdivisions (collectively referred to as the municipal bond portfolio). The municipal bond portfolio is diversified across the United States, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico and includes general obligation and revenue bonds issued by states, cities, counties, school districts and similar issuers. Included in the municipal bond portfolio at December 31, 2021 and 2020 were $4.03 billion and $3.54 billion, respectively, of pre-refunded bonds, which are bonds for which states or municipalities have established irrevocable trusts, almost exclusively comprised of U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government and government agencies and authorities. These trusts were created to fund the payment of principal and interest due under the bonds. The irrevocable trusts are verified as to their sufficiency by an independent verification agent of the underwriter, issuer or trustee. All of the Company’s holdings of securities issued by Puerto Rico and related entities have either been pre-refunded and therefore are defeased by U.S. Treasury securities or have FHA guarantees subject to federal appropriation.
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The following table shows the geographic distribution of the $32.83 billion of municipal bonds at December 31, 2021 that were not pre-refunded:
| (at December 31, 2021, in millions) | State General Obligation | Local General Obligation | Revenue | Total Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality(1) | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State: | ||||||||||||||||||
| Texas | $ | 33 | $ | 3,340 | $ | 1,435 | $ | 4,808 | Aaa | |||||||||
| California | — | 2,071 | 489 | 2,560 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Virginia | 61 | 1,086 | 878 | 2,025 | Aaa | |||||||||||||
| Washington | 143 | 1,368 | 366 | 1,877 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| North Carolina | 200 | 821 | 543 | 1,564 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Minnesota | 133 | 1,159 | 184 | 1,476 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Colorado | — | 908 | 409 | 1,317 | Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Massachusetts | — | 177 | 1,028 | 1,205 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Maryland | 33 | 936 | 109 | 1,078 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Florida | 60 | 172 | 720 | 952 | Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Georgia | 161 | 654 | 116 | 931 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Tennessee | 22 | 781 | 108 | 911 | Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Wisconsin | 47 | 678 | 139 | 864 | Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| All others (2) | 330 | 5,516 | 5,416 | 11,262 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 1,223 | $ | 19,667 | $ | 11,940 | $ | 32,830 | Aaa/Aa1 |
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(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist. Ratings shown are the higher of the rating of the underlying issuer or the insurer in the case of securities enhanced by third-party insurance for the payment of principal and interest in the event of issuer default.
(2)No other single state accounted for 2.5% or more of the total non-pre-refunded municipal bonds.
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The following table displays the funding sources for the $11.94 billion of municipal bonds identified as revenue bonds in the foregoing table at December 31, 2021:
| (at December 31, 2021, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality(1) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source: | ||||||
| Water | $ | 3,336 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||
| Higher education | 3,207 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Sewer | 1,112 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Power utilities | 767 | Aa1 | ||||
| Special tax | 559 | Aa1 | ||||
| Industrial | 297 | A2 | ||||
| Highway tolls | 286 | Aa2 | ||||
| Fuel sales | 260 | Aa1 | ||||
| Transit | 200 | Aa1 | ||||
| Airport and marina | 97 | A3 | ||||
| Health care | 86 | Aa2 | ||||
| Lease | 37 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Housing | 32 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Lottery | 26 | Aa1 | ||||
| Other revenue sources | 1,638 | Aaa/Aa1 | ||||
| Total | $ | 11,940 | Aaa/Aa1 |
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(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist. Ratings shown are the higher of the rating of the underlying issuer or the insurer in the case of securities enhanced by third-party insurance for the payment of principal and interest in the event of issuer default.
The Company bases its investment decision on the underlying credit characteristics of the municipal security. The weighted average credit rating of the municipal bond portfolio was “Aaa/Aa1” at December 31, 2021.
Debt Securities Issued by Foreign Governments
The following table shows the geographic distribution of the Company’s long-term fixed maturity investments in debt securities issued by foreign governments at December 31, 2021:
| (at December 31, 2021, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign Government: | ||||||
| Canada | $ | 830 | Aaa/Aa1 | |||
| United Kingdom | 195 | Aa3 | ||||
| All others (2) | 16 | A2 | ||||
| Total | $ | 1,041 | Aaa/Aa1 |
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(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist.
(2) No other country accounted for 2.5% or more of total debt securities issued by foreign governments.
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The following table shows the Company’s Eurozone exposure at December 31, 2021 to all debt securities issued by foreign governments, financial companies, sovereign corporations (including sovereign banks) whose securities are backed by the respective country’s government and all other corporate securities (comprised of industrial corporations and utility companies) which could be affected if economic conditions deteriorated due to a prolonged recession:
| Corporate Securities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt Securities Issued by Foreign Governments | Financial | Sovereign Corporates | All Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| (at December 31, 2021, in millions) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | Carrying Value | Weighted Average Credit Quality (1) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Eurozone Periphery | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Spain | $ | — | — | $ | 54 | A2 | $ | — | — | $ | 7 | Baa3 | ||||||||||||||
| Ireland | — | — | — | — | — | — | 173 | Baa2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Italy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Greece | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Portugal | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Subtotal | — | 54 | — | 180 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Eurozone Non-Periphery | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Germany | — | — | — | — | 264 | Aaa/Aa1 | 551 | A3 | ||||||||||||||||||
| France | 87 | Aa2 | — | — | — | — | 614 | A2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Netherlands | — | — | 124 | A1 | 109 | Aaa | 225 | A3 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Finland | — | — | 117 | Aa1 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Belgium | — | — | — | — | — | — | 124 | Baa1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Subtotal | 87 | 241 | 373 | 1,514 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 87 | $ | 295 | $ | 373 | $ | 1,694 |
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(1)Rated using external rating agencies or by the Company when a public rating does not exist. The table includes $434 million of short-term securities which have the highest ratings issued by external rating agencies for short-term issuances. For purposes of this table, the short-term securities, which are rated “A-1+” and/or “P-1,” are included as “Aaa” rated securities.
In addition to fixed maturities noted in the foregoing table, the Company has exposure totaling $300 million to private equity limited partnerships and real estate partnerships (both of which are included in other investments in the Company’s consolidated balance sheet) whose primary investing focus is across Europe. The Company has unfunded commitments totaling $206 million to these partnerships.
Mortgage-Backed Securities, Collateralized Mortgage Obligations and Pass-Through Securities
The Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio at December 31, 2021 and 2020 included $1.82 billion and $2.36 billion, respectively, of residential mortgage-backed securities, including pass-through-securities and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), all of which are subject to prepayment risk (either shortening or lengthening of duration). While prepayment risk for securities and its effect on income cannot be fully controlled, particularly when interest rates move dramatically, the Company’s investment strategy generally favors securities that reduce this risk within expected interest rate ranges. The Company makes investments in residential CMOs that are either guaranteed by GNMA, FNMA or FHLMC, or if not guaranteed, are senior or super-senior positions within their respective securitizations. Both guaranteed and non-guaranteed residential CMOs allocate the distribution of payments from the underlying mortgages among different classes of bondholders. In addition, non-guaranteed residential CMOs provide structures that allocate the impact of credit losses to different classes of bondholders. Senior and super-senior CMOs are protected, to varying degrees, from credit losses as those losses are initially allocated to subordinated bondholders. The Company’s investment strategy is to purchase CMO tranches that are expected to offer the most favorable return given the Company’s assessment of associated risks. The Company does not purchase residual interests in CMOs. For more information regarding the Company’s investments in residential mortgage-backed securities, see note 3 of notes to the consolidated financial statements.
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Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities and Project Loans
At December 31, 2021 and 2020, the Company held commercial mortgage-backed securities (including FHA project loans) of $1.30 billion and $1.42 billion, respectively. For more information regarding the Company’s investments in commercial mortgage-backed securities, see note 3 of notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Equity Securities, Real Estate and Short-Term Investments
See note 1 of notes to the consolidated financial statements for further information about these invested asset classes.
Other Investments
The Company also invests in private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships, and joint ventures. These asset classes have historically provided a higher return than investments in fixed maturities but are subject to more volatility. The Company also enters into certain derivative financial instruments from time to time that are reported as part of other investments. At December 31, 2021 and 2020, the carrying value of the Company's other investments was $3.86 billion and $3.40 billion, respectively. The Company has unfunded commitments to private equity limited partnerships, real estate partnerships and others in which it invests. These commitments totaled $1.70 billion and $1.72 billion at December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. It is the opinion of the Company’s management that the Company has adequate liquidity to meet these commitments.
Securities Lending
The Company has, from time to time, engaged in securities lending activities from which it generates net investment income by lending certain of its investments to other institutions for short periods of time. At December 31, 2021 and 2020, the Company had $253 million and $139 million of securities on loan, respectively, as part of a tri-party lending agreement. The average monthly balance of securities on loan during 2021 and 2020 was $329 million and $254 million, respectively. Borrowers of these securities provide collateral equal to at least 102% of the market value of the loaned securities plus accrued interest. The Company did not incur any investment losses in its securities lending program for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020.
Lloyd’s Trust Deposits
The Company meets its capital requirements to support its underwriting at Lloyd’s using a combination of the share capital and retained earnings of the Company's subsidiaries participating in Lloyd's, trust deposits and uncollateralized letters of credit. Securities with a fair value of approximately $33 million and $119 million held by a wholly-owned subsidiary at December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, and $34 million and $35 million held by TRV at December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, were pledged into Lloyd’s trust accounts to provide a portion of the Lloyd’s capital requirements. For more information regarding the Company’s utilization of uncollateralized letters of credit, see “Liquidity and Capital Resources” herein.
Net Unrealized Investment Gains
The net unrealized investment gains that were included in shareholders' equity were as follows:
| (at December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed maturities | $ | 3,062 | $ | 5,175 | $ | 2,853 | |||||
| Other | (2) | — | — | ||||||||
| Unrealized investment gains before tax | 3,060 | 5,175 | 2,853 | ||||||||
| Tax expense | 645 | 1,101 | 607 | ||||||||
| Net unrealized investment gains included in shareholders' equity at end of year | $ | 2,415 | $ | 4,074 | $ | 2,246 |
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Net unrealized investment gains included in shareholders’ equity at December 31, 2021 decreased by $1.66 billion from December 31, 2020, primarily due to an increase in interest rates during 2021. Equity securities, which include common and non-redeemable preferred stocks, are reported at fair value with changes in fair value recognized in net income.
At December 31, 2021, the Company had no fixed maturity investments reported at fair value for which fair value was less than 80% of amortized cost.
For fixed maturity investments where fair value is less than the carrying value and the Company did not reach a decision to impair, the Company continues to have the intent and ability to hold such investments to a projected recovery in value, which may not be until maturity.
At December 31, 2021 and 2020, below investment grade securities comprised 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively, of the fair value of the Company’s fixed maturity investment portfolio. Included in below investment grade securities at December 31, 2021 were securities in an unrealized loss position that, in the aggregate, had an amortized cost of $239 million and a fair value of $232 million, resulting in a net pre-tax unrealized investment loss of $7 million. These securities in an unrealized loss position represented less than 1% of both the amortized cost and fair value of the fixed maturity portfolio at December 31, 2021 and accounted for approximately 2% of the total gross pre-tax unrealized investment loss in the fixed maturity portfolio at December 31, 2021.
Impairment Charges
Impairment charges included in net realized investment gains in the consolidated statement of income were $2 million and $55 million for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The total in 2020 included a $40 million other-than-temporary impairment of the carrying value of an equity method investment included in other investments. See note 3 of notes to the consolidated financial statements for further information.
Purchases and Sales of Investment Securities
Purchases and sales of investments are based on cash requirements, the characteristics of the insurance liabilities and current market conditions. The Company identifies investments to be sold to achieve its primary investment goals of assuring the Company’s ability to meet policyholder obligations as well as to optimize investment returns, given these obligations.
During the year ended December 31, 2021, the Company incurred pre-tax realized losses of $5 million on the sale of fixed maturity investments having a fair value of $488 million.
CATASTROPHE MODELING
The Company uses various analyses and methods, including proprietary and third-party modeling processes, to make underwriting and reinsurance decisions designed to manage its exposure to catastrophic events. There are no industry-standard methodologies or assumptions for projecting catastrophe exposure. Accordingly, catastrophe estimates provided by different insurers may not be comparable.
The Company actively monitors and evaluates changes in third-party models and, when necessary, calibrates the catastrophe risk model estimates delivered via its own proprietary modeling processes. The Company considers historical loss experience, recent events, underwriting practices, market share analyses, external scientific analysis and various other factors, including non-modeled losses, to refine its proprietary view of catastrophe risk. These proprietary models are updated regularly as new information and techniques emerge.
The tables below set forth the probabilities that estimated losses, comprising claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses (but excluding unallocated claim adjustment expenses), from a single event occurring in a one-year timeframe will equal or exceed the indicated loss amounts (expressed in dollars, net of tax, and as a percentage of the Company’s common equity), based on the proprietary and third-party models utilized by the Company at December 31, 2021. For example, on the basis described below the tables, the Company estimates that there is a one percent chance that the Company’s loss from a single U.S. and Canadian hurricane in a one-year timeframe would equal or exceed $2.0 billion, or 8% of the Company’s common equity at December 31, 2021.
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| Dollars (in billions) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likelihood of Exceedance (1) | Single U.S. and Canadian Hurricane | Single U.S. and Canadian Earthquake | |||||
| 2.0% (1-in-50) | $ | 1.5 | $ | 0.5 | |||
| 1.0% (1-in-100) | $ | 2.0 | $ | 0.7 | |||
| 0.4% (1-in-250) | $ | 2.5 | $ | 1.2 | |||
| 0.1% (1-in-1,000) | $ | 6.4 | $ | 1.7 |
| Percentage of Common Equity (2) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likelihood of Exceedance | Single U.S. and Canadian Hurricane | Single U.S. and Canadian Earthquake | ||||
| 2.0% (1-in-50) | 6 | % | 2 | % | ||
| 1.0% (1-in-100) | 8 | % | 3 | % | ||
| 0.4% (1-in-250) | 9 | % | 4 | % | ||
| 0.1% (1-in-1,000) | 24 | % | 6 | % |
___________________________________________
(1) An event that has, for example, a 2% likelihood of exceedance is sometimes described as a “1-in-50 year event.” As noted above, however, the probabilities in the table represent the likelihood of losses from a single event equaling or exceeding the indicated threshold loss amount in a one-year timeframe, not over a multi-year timeframe. Also, because the probabilities relate to a single event, the probabilities do not address the likelihood of more than one event occurring in a particular period, and, therefore, the amounts do not address potential aggregate catastrophe losses occurring in a one-year timeframe.
(2) The percentage of common equity is calculated by dividing (a) indicated loss amounts in dollars by (b) total common equity excluding net unrealized investment gains and losses, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity. Net unrealized investment gains and losses can be significantly impacted by both discretionary and other economic factors and are not necessarily indicative of operating trends. Accordingly, the Company’s management uses the percentage of common equity calculated on this basis as a metric to evaluate the potential impact of a single hurricane or single earthquake on the Company’s financial position for purposes of making underwriting and reinsurance decisions.
The threshold loss amounts in the tables above, which are based on the Company’s in-force portfolio at December 31, 2021 and catastrophe reinsurance program at January 1, 2022, are net of reinsurance, after-tax and exclude unallocated claim adjustment expenses, which historically have been less than 10% of loss estimates. For further information regarding the Company’s reinsurance, see “Item 1-Business-Reinsurance.” The amounts for hurricanes reflect U.S. and Canadian exposures and include property exposures, property residual market exposures and an adjustment for certain non-property exposures. The hurricane loss amounts are based on the Company’s catastrophe risk model estimates and include losses from the hurricane hazards of wind and storm surge. The amounts for earthquakes reflect U.S. and Canadian property and workers’ compensation exposures. The Company does not believe that the inclusion of hurricane or earthquake losses arising from other geographical areas or other exposures would materially change the estimated threshold loss amounts.
Catastrophe modeling relies upon inputs based on experience, science, engineering and history. These inputs reflect a significant amount of judgment and are subject to changes which may result in volatility in the modeled output. Catastrophe modeling output may also fail to account for risks that are outside the range of normal probability or are otherwise unforeseeable. Catastrophe modeling assumptions include, among others, the portion of purchased reinsurance that is collectible after a catastrophic event, which may prove to be materially incorrect. Consequently, catastrophe modeling estimates are subject to significant uncertainty. In the tables above, the uncertainty associated with the estimated threshold loss amounts increases significantly as the likelihood of exceedance decreases. In other words, in the case of a relatively more remote event (e.g., 1-in-1,000), the estimated threshold loss amount is relatively less reliable. Actual losses from an event could materially exceed the indicated threshold loss amount. In addition, more than one such event could occur in any period.
Moreover, the Company is exposed to the risk of material losses from other than property and workers’ compensation coverages arising out of hurricanes and earthquakes, and it is exposed to catastrophe losses from perils other than hurricanes and earthquakes, such as tornadoes and other windstorms, hail, wildfires, severe winter weather, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, solar flares and other naturally-occurring events, as well as acts of terrorism and cyber events.
In addition, compared to models for hurricanes, models for earthquakes are less reliable due to there being a more limited number of significant historical events to analyze, while models for tornadoes, hail storms wildfires and winter storms are
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newer and may be less reliable due to the highly random geographic nature and size of these events. Accordingly, these models may be less accurate in predicting risks and estimating losses. Further, changes in climate conditions could cause our underlying modeling data to be less predictive, thus limiting our ability to effectively evaluate and manage catastrophe risk. As compared to natural catastrophes, modeling for man-made catastrophes, such as terrorism and cyber events, is even more difficult and less reliable, and for some events (both natural and man-made), models are either in early stages of development and, therefore, not widely adopted, or are not available.
For more information about the Company’s exposure to catastrophe losses, see “Item 1A-Risk Factors-High levels of catastrophe losses, including as a result of factors such as increased concentrations of insured exposures in catastrophe-prone areas, could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, our financial position and/or liquidity, and could adversely impact our ratings, our ability to raise capital and the availability and cost of reinsurance” and “Item 1A-Risk Factors- We may be adversely affected if our pricing and capital models provide materially different indications than actual results.”
CHANGING CLIMATE CONDITIONS
Severe weather events over the last two decades underscore the unpredictability of climate trends, and changing climate conditions have added to the frequency and severity of natural disasters and created additional uncertainty as to future trends and exposures. The insurance industry has experienced increased catastrophe losses due to a number of potential causal factors, including, in addition to weather/climate variability, aging infrastructure, more people living in high-risk areas, population growth in areas with weaker enforcement of building codes, urban expansion, an increase in the number of amenities included in, and average size of, a home and increased inflation, including as a results of post-event demand surge. For example, the frequency and severity of tornado and hail events in the United States have been more volatile during this time period. In addition, climate studies by government agencies, academic institutions, catastrophe modeling organizations and other groups indicate that we are experiencing, and are expected to continue to experience over time, an increase in frequency and/or intensity of hurricanes, heavy precipitation events, flash flooding, sea level rise, droughts, heat waves and wildfires. Understanding the potential impacts of changing climate conditions is important to the Company's business. Changing climate conditions are expected to evolve over decades. Importantly, because most of its policies renew annually, the Company is able to respond to these changes over time through adjustments to its underwriting strategy, product pricing and related policy terms and conditions, as appropriate. As an example, in recent years the Company has focused on enhancing the strategic management of its catastrophe exposure, adding experts in data science, meteorology, geophysics and environmental engineering, among others, to its catastrophe management organization. The Company also established dedicated teams for each catastrophe peril, with the goal of developing industry-leading scientific and underwriting expertise. These results have been incorporated into the Company’s product development, risk selection, pricing, capital allocation and claim response.
The Company discusses how changing climate conditions may present other issues for its business under “Item 1A - Risk Factors.” and “Outlook.” For example, among other things:
•Increasingly unpredictable and severe weather conditions could result in increased frequency and severity of claims under policies issued by the Company. See “Item 1A—Risk Factors—High levels of catastrophe losses, including as a result of factors such as increased concentrations of insured exposures in catastrophe-prone areas, could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, our financial position and/or liquidity, and could adversely impact our ratings, our ability to raise capital and the availability and cost of reinsurance” and “-Outlook-Underwriting Gain/Loss.” Moreover, the Company's catastrophe models may be less reliable due to the increased unpredictability in frequency and severity of severe weather events, emerging trends in climate conditions and regulatory responses to catastrophe events not being appropriately reflected in the models, in addition to the other factors mentioned above. Accordingly, the Company may be subject to increased losses from catastrophes and other weather-related events.
•Changing climate conditions could also impact the creditworthiness of issuers of securities in which the Company invests. For example, water supply adequacy could impact the creditworthiness of bond issuers with significant assets or business activities in the Southwestern United States; more frequent and/or severe hurricanes could impact the creditworthiness of issuers with significant assets or business activities in the Southeastern United States, among other areas; and increased regulation adopted in response to potential changes in climate conditions could impact the creditworthiness of issuers affects by such regulations. In addition, as issuers of securities in which the Company invests become increasingly focused on mitigating the potential environmental impact of their operations, the costs associated with such initiatives could affect the business models and realized returns of such issuers. See “Item 1A—Risk Factors—Our investment portfolio is subject to credit and interest rate risk, and may suffer reduced or low returns or material realized or unrealized losses.”
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•Increased regulation adopted in response to potential changes in climate conditions may impact the Company and its customers, including state insurance regulations that could impact the Company’s ability to manage property exposures in areas vulnerable to significant climate driven losses. For example, one state passed legislation that restricted a carrier's ability to cancel or non-renew certain policies within or adjacent to declared state of emergency zip codes. If the Company is unable to implement risk-based pricing, modify policy terms or reduce exposures to the extent necessary to address rising losses related to catastrophes and smaller scale weather events (should those increased losses occur), its business may be adversely affected. See “Item 1—Business—U.S. State and Federal Regulation—Regulatory and Legislative Responses to Catastrophes.” In addition, climate change regulation could increase the Company’s customers’ costs of doing business. For example, insureds faced with carbon management regulatory requirements may have less available capital for investment in loss prevention and safety features which may, over time, increase loss exposures. Increased regulation may also result in reduced economic activity, which would decrease the amount of insurable assets and businesses.
•The full range of potential liability exposures related to changing climate conditions continues to evolve. For example, from time to time third parties sue our policyholders alleging that they caused or contributed to changing climate conditions. Through the Company’s Emerging Issues Committee and its Committee on Climate, Energy and the Environment, the Company works with its business units and corporate groups, as appropriate, to identify and try to assess climate change-related liability issues, which are continually evolving and often hard to fully evaluate. The Company regularly reviews emerging issues, including changing climate conditions, to consider potential changes to its modeling and the use of such modeling, as well as to help determine the need for new underwriting strategies, coverage modifications or new products. See “Item 1A—Risk Factors—The effects of emerging claim and coverage issues on our business are uncertain, and court decisions or legislative changes that take place after we issue our policies can result in an unexpected increase in the number of claims and have a material adverse impact on our results of operations.”
REINSURANCE RECOVERABLES
The Company reinsures a portion of the risks it underwrites in order to control its exposure to losses. For additional discussion regarding the Company’s reinsurance coverage, see “Part I—Item 1—Business—Reinsurance.”
The following table summarizes the composition of the Company’s reinsurance recoverables:
| (at December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross reinsurance recoverables on paid and unpaid claims and claim adjustment expenses | $ | 3,931 | $ | 3,731 | |||
| Gross structured settlements | 2,900 | 2,964 | |||||
| Mandatory pools and associations | 1,762 | 1,801 | |||||
| Gross reinsurance recoverables | 8,593 | 8,496 | |||||
| Allowance for estimated uncollectible reinsurance | (141) | (146) | |||||
| Net reinsurance recoverables | $ | 8,452 | $ | 8,350 |
Net reinsurance recoverables at December 31, 2021 increased by $102 million from December 31, 2020, primarily reflecting the impacts of catastrophe losses in 2021, partially offset by a lower level of structured settlements and recoverables from mandatory pools and associations.
The following table presents the Company’s top five reinsurer groups by reinsurance recoverable at December 31, 2021 (in millions). Also included is the A.M. Best rating of the Company's predominant reinsurer from each such reinsurer group at February 17, 2022:
| Reinsurer Group | Reinsurance Recoverable | A.M. Best Rating of Group’s Predominant Reinsurer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Re Group | $ | 531 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | ||||
| Munich Re Group | 297 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Berkshire Hathaway | 289 | A++ | highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Alleghany Group | 244 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Axa Group | 187 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings |
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At December 31, 2021, the Company held $981 million of collateral in the form of letters of credit, funds and trust agreements held to fully or partially collateralize certain reinsurance recoverables.
Included in net reinsurance recoverables are amounts related to structured settlements, which are annuities purchased from various life insurance companies to settle certain personal physical injury claims, of which workers’ compensation claims comprise a significant portion. In cases where the Company did not receive a release from the claimant, the amount due from the life insurance company related to the structured settlement is included in the Company’s consolidated balance sheet as a reinsurance recoverable and the related claim cost is included in the liability for claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, as the Company retains the contingent liability to the claimant. If it is expected that the life insurance company is not able to pay, the Company would recognize an impairment of the related reinsurance recoverable if, and to the extent, the purchased annuities are not covered by state guaranty associations. In the event that the life insurance company fails to make the required annuity payments, the Company would be required to make such payments. The following table presents the Company’s top five groups by structured settlements at December 31, 2021 (in millions). Also included is the A.M. Best rating of the Company’s predominant insurer from each such insurer group at February 17, 2022:
| Group | Structured Settlements | A.M. Best Rating of Group’s Predominant Insurer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity & Guaranty Life Group | $ | 724 | A- | fourth highest of 16 ratings | ||||
| Genworth Financial Group | 307 | B | seventh highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| John Hancock Group | 264 | A+ | second highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Symetra Financial Corporation | 222 | A | third highest of 16 ratings | |||||
| Brighthouse Financial, Inc. | 220 | A | third highest of 16 ratings |
The Company considers the ratings and related outlook assigned to reinsurance companies and life insurance companies by various independent ratings agencies in assessing the adequacy of its allowance for uncollectible amounts.
OUTLOOK
The following discussion provides outlook information for certain key drivers of the Company’s results of operations and capital position.
Premiums. The Company’s earned premiums are a function of net written premium volume. Net written premiums comprise both renewal business and new business and are recognized as earned premium over the term of the underlying policies. When business renews, the amount of net written premiums associated with that business may increase or decrease (renewal premium change) as a result of increases or decreases in rate and/or insured exposures, which the Company considers as a measure of units of exposure (such as the number and value of vehicles or properties insured). Net written premiums from both renewal and new business, and therefore earned premiums, are impacted by competitive market conditions as well as general economic conditions, which, particularly in the case of Business Insurance, affect audit premium adjustments, policy endorsements and mid-term cancellations. Net written premiums may also be impacted by the structure of reinsurance programs and related costs, as well as changes in foreign currency exchange rates.
Overall, the Company expects that retention levels (the amount of expiring premium that renews, before the impact of renewal premium changes) will remain strong by historical standards during 2022.
Property and casualty insurance market conditions are expected to remain competitive during 2022 for new business. In each of the Company’s business segments, new business generally has less of an impact on underwriting profitability than renewal business, given the volume of new business relative to renewal business. However, in periods of meaningful increases in new business, despite its positive impact on underwriting gains over time, the impact of higher new business levels may negatively impact the combined ratio for a period of time. In periods of meaningful decreases in new business, despite its negative impact on underwriting gains over time, the impact of lower new business levels may positively impact the combined ratio for a period of time.
Underwriting Gain/Loss. The Company’s underwriting gain/loss can be significantly impacted by catastrophe losses and net favorable or unfavorable prior year reserve development, as well as underlying underwriting margins. Underlying underwriting margins can be impacted by a number of factors, including variability in non-catastrophe weather, large loss and other loss activity; changes in current period loss estimates resulting from prior period loss development; changes in loss trend, including as a result of COVID-19 and related economic conditions; changes in business mix; changes in reinsurance coverages and/or costs; premium adjustments; and variability in expenses and assessments.
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Catastrophe losses and non-catastrophe weather-related losses are inherently unpredictable from period to period. The Company’s results of operations could be adversely impacted if significant catastrophe and non-catastrophe weather-related losses were to occur.
On average for the ten-year period ended December 31, 2021, the Company experienced approximately 40% of its annual catastrophe losses during the second quarter, primarily arising out of severe wind and hail storms, including tornadoes. Hurricanes, wildfires and winter storms tend to happen at other times of the year and can also have a material impact on the Company's results of operations. Catastrophe losses incurred in a particular quarter in any given year may differ materially from historical experience. In addition, most of the Company's reinsurance programs renew on January 1 or July 1 of each year, and, therefore, any changes to the cost or coverage terms of such programs will be effective after such dates.
Over much of the past decade, the Company’s results have included significant amounts of net favorable prior year reserve development driven by better than expected loss experience. However, given the inherent uncertainty in estimating claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, loss experience could develop such that the Company recognizes in future periods higher or lower levels of favorable prior year reserve development, no favorable prior year reserve development or unfavorable prior year reserve development. In addition, the ongoing review of prior year claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, or other changes in current period circumstances, may result in the Company revising current year loss estimates upward or downward in future periods of the current year.
It is possible that changes in economic conditions and steps taken by federal, state and/or local governments and the Federal Reserve could lead to higher or lower inflation than the Company anticipated, which could in turn lead to an increase or decrease in the Company’s loss costs and the need to strengthen or reduce claims and claim adjustment expense reserves. These impacts of inflation on loss costs and claims and claim adjustment expense reserves could be more pronounced for those lines of business that require a relatively longer period of time to finalize and settle claims for a given accident year and, accordingly, are relatively more inflation sensitive. Labor shortages, higher costs of used vehicles and parts, and increased demand and decreased supply for raw materials are adversely impacting severity in our auto and property businesses and may continue to do so in future quarters. For a further discussion, see “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors—If actual claims exceed our claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, or if changes in the estimated level of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves are necessary, including as a result of, among other things, changes in the legal/tort, regulatory and economic environments in which the Company operates, our financial results could be materially and adversely affected.”
Economic conditions and therefore the Company’s results of operations may be impacted by a variety of other factors as well, many of which could continue to be affected by COVID-19, such as the pace of the economic recovery, financial market volatility, supply chain disruptions, extraordinary monetary and fiscal policy measures, heightened geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates, the political and regulatory environment, changes to the U.S. Federal budget and potential changes in tax laws.
Investment Portfolio. The Company expects to continue to focus its investment strategy on maintaining a high-quality investment portfolio and a relatively short average effective duration. The weighted average effective duration of fixed maturities and short-term securities was 4.2 (4.4 excluding short-term securities) at December 31, 2021. From time to time, the Company enters into short positions in U.S. Treasury futures contracts to manage the duration of its fixed maturity portfolio. At December 31, 2021, the Company had no open U.S. Treasury futures contracts. The Company regularly evaluates its investment alternatives and mix. Currently, the majority of the Company’s investments are comprised of a widely diversified portfolio of high-quality, liquid, taxable U.S. government, tax-exempt and taxable U.S. municipal and taxable corporate and U.S. agency mortgage-backed bonds.
The Company also invests much smaller amounts in equity securities, real estate, and private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships, and joint ventures. These investment classes have the potential for higher returns but also the potential for greater volatility and higher degrees of risk, including less stable rates of return and less liquidity.
Approximately 29% of the fixed maturity portfolio is expected to mature over the next three years (including the early redemption of bonds, assuming interest rates (including credit spreads) do not rise significantly by applicable call dates). As a result, the overall yield on and composition of its portfolio could be meaningfully impacted by the types of investments available for reinvestment with the proceeds of maturing bonds.
Net investment income is a material contributor to the Company’s results of operations. Based on our current expectations for slightly higher levels of fixed income investments, partially offset by the impact of expected lower reinvestment yields on fixed income investments, the Company expects that after-tax net investment income from that portfolio will be approximately $430 million to $440 million for each quarter of 2022. This expectation could be impacted by disruptions in global financial markets.
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Included in other investments are private equity, hedge fund and real estate partnerships that are accounted for under the equity method of accounting and typically report their financial statement information to the Company one month to three months following the end of the reporting period. Accordingly, net investment income or loss from these other investments is generally reflected in the Company's financial statements on a quarter lag basis. Net investment income from these other investments was particularly strong during 2021 reflecting strong global financial market performance. Given the particularly strong 2021 performance, the Company expects that net investment income from these other investments in 2022 will be significantly lower than in 2021. The Company’s net investment income in future periods from its non-fixed income investment portfolio will be impacted, positively or negatively, by the performance of global financial markets.
The Company had net pre-tax realized investment gains of $171 million in 2021. Changes in global financial markets could result in net realized investment gains or losses in the Company’s investment portfolio.
The Company had a net pre-tax unrealized investment gain of $3.06 billion ($2.42 billion after-tax) in its fixed maturity investment portfolio at December 31, 2021. While the Company does not attempt to predict future interest rate movements, a rising interest rate environment would reduce the market value of fixed maturity investments and, therefore, reduce shareholders’ equity, and a declining interest rate environment would have the opposite effects. Additionally, disruptions in global financial markets could also impact the market value of the Company’s investment portfolio. The Company's investment portfolio has benefited from certain tax exemptions (primarily those related to interest from municipal bonds) and certain other tax laws, including, but not limited to, those governing dividends-received deductions and tax credits (such as foreign tax credits). Changes in these laws could adversely impact the value of the Company's investment portfolio. See "Our businesses are heavily regulated by the states and countries in which we conduct business, including licensing, market conduct and financial supervision, and changes in regulation, including higher tax rates, may reduce our profitability and limit our growth" included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors.”
For further discussion of the Company’s investment portfolio, see “Investment Portfolio.” For a discussion of the risks to the Company’s business during or following a financial market disruption and risks to the Company’s investment portfolio, see the risk factors entitled “During or following a period of financial market disruption or an economic downturn, our business could be materially and adversely affected” and “Our investment portfolio is subject to credit and interest rate risk, and may suffer reduced or low returns or material realized or unrealized losses” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors.” For a discussion of the risks to the Company’s investments from foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations, see the risk factor entitled “We are subject to additional risks associated with our business outside the United States” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors” and see “Part II—Item 7A—Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk—Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk.”
Capital Position. The Company believes it has a strong capital position and, as part of its ongoing efforts to create shareholder value, expects to continue to return capital not needed to support its business operations to its shareholders, subject to the considerations described below. The Company expects that, generally over time, the combination of dividends to common shareholders and common share repurchases will likely not exceed net income. The Company also expects that to the extent that it continues to grow premium volumes, the level of capital to support the Company's financial strength ratings will also increase, and accordingly, the amount of capital returned to shareholders relative to earnings would be somewhat less than it otherwise would have been absent the growth in premium volumes. The timing and actual number of shares to be repurchased in the future will depend on a variety of additional factors, including the Company’s financial position, earnings, share price, catastrophe losses, maintaining capital levels commensurate with the Company’s desired ratings from independent rating agencies, changes in levels of written premiums, funding of the Company’s qualified pension plan, capital requirements of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, legal requirements, regulatory constraints, other investment opportunities (including mergers and acquisitions and related financings), market conditions, changes in tax laws and other factors. For information regarding the Company’s common share repurchases in 2021, see “Liquidity and Capital Resources” herein. S&P has announced that it intends to change its capital adequacy model. While the proposed model has not been finalized, it could increase the level of capital S&P requires for a particular financial strength rating. As part of its capital management strategy, the Company will continue to make its own assessment of the appropriate level of capital to support the Company’s business operations. See the risk factor entitled “A downgrade in our claims-paying and financial strength ratings could adversely impact our business volumes, adversely impact our ability to access the capital markets and increase our borrowing costs” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors.”
As a result of the Company’s business outside of the United States, primarily in Canada, the United Kingdom (including Lloyd’s), the Republic of Ireland and in Brazil through a joint venture, the Company’s capital is also subject to the effects of changes in foreign currency exchange rates. Strengthening of the U.S. dollar in comparison to other currencies could result in a reduction in shareholders’ equity, while a weakening of the U.S. dollar in comparison to other currencies could result in an
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increase in shareholders' equity. For additional discussion of the Company’s foreign exchange market risk exposure, see “Part II—Item 7A—Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.”
Many of the statements in this “Outlook” section and in “Liquidity and Capital Resources” are forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that are often difficult to predict and beyond the Company’s control. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Further, such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this report and the Company undertakes no obligation to update them. See “—Forward Looking Statements.” For a discussion of potential risks and uncertainties that could impact the Company’s results of operations or financial position, see “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors” and “Critical Accounting Estimates.”
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
The Company's liquidity and capital resources were not materially impacted by COVID-19 and related economic conditions during 2021. For further discussion regarding the potential future impacts of COVID-19 and related economic conditions on the Company's liquidity and capital resources, see “The ongoing impact of COVID-19 and related risks could materially affect our results of operations, financial position and/or liquidity” included in “Part I—Item 1A—Risk Factors”.
Liquidity is a measure of a company’s ability to generate sufficient cash flows to meet the cash requirements of its business operations and to satisfy general corporate purposes when needed.
Operating Company Liquidity. The liquidity requirements of the Company’s insurance subsidiaries are met primarily by funds generated from premiums, fees, income received on investments and investment maturities. Cash provided from these sources is used primarily for claims and claim adjustment expense payments and operating expenses. The insurance subsidiaries’ liquidity requirements can be impacted by, among other factors, the timing and amount of catastrophe claims, which are inherently unpredictable, as well as the timing and amount of reinsurance recoveries, which may be affected by reinsurer solvency and reinsurance coverage disputes. Additionally, the variability of asbestos-related claim payments, as well as the volatility of potential judgments and settlements arising out of litigation, may also result in increased liquidity requirements. It is the opinion of the Company’s management that the insurance subsidiaries’ future liquidity needs will be adequately met from all of the sources described above. Subject to restrictions imposed by states in which the Company’s insurance subsidiaries are domiciled, the Company’s principal insurance subsidiaries pay dividends to their respective parent companies, which, in turn, pay dividends to the corporate holding (parent) company (TRV). For further information regarding restrictions on dividends paid by the Company’s insurance subsidiaries, see “Part I—Item 1—Business—Regulation.”
Holding Company Liquidity. TRV’s liquidity requirements primarily include shareholder dividends, debt servicing, common share repurchases and, from time to time, contributions to its qualified domestic pension plan. At December 31, 2021, TRV held total cash and short-term invested assets in the United States aggregating $1.53 billion and having a weighted average maturity of 28 days. TRV has established a holding company liquidity target equal to its estimated annual pre-tax interest expense and common shareholder dividends (currently approximately $1.18 billion). TRV’s holding company liquidity of $1.53 billion at December 31, 2021 exceeded this target, and it is the opinion of the Company’s management that these assets are sufficient to meet TRV’s current liquidity requirements.
TRV is not dependent on dividends or other forms of repatriation from its foreign operations to support its liquidity needs. The undistributed earnings of the Company’s foreign operations are intended to be permanently reinvested in those operations, and such earnings were not material to the Company’s financial position or liquidity at December 31, 2021.
TRV has a shelf registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission that expires on June 10, 2022 which permits it to issue securities from time to time. TRV also has a $1.0 billion line of credit facility with a syndicate of financial institutions that expires on June 4, 2023. At December 31, 2021, the Company had $100 million of commercial paper outstanding. TRV is not reliant on its commercial paper program to meet its operating cash flow needs. The Company has no senior notes or junior subordinated debentures maturing until April 2026, at which time $200 million of senior notes will mature.
The Company utilized uncollateralized letters of credit issued by major banks with an aggregate limit of $279 million to provide a portion of the capital needed to support its obligations at Lloyd’s at December 31, 2021. If uncollateralized letters of credit are not available at a reasonable price or at all in the future, the Company can collateralize these letters of credit or may have to seek alternative means of supporting its obligations at Lloyd’s, which could include utilizing holding company funds on hand.
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Operating Activities
Net cash provided by operating activities were $7.27 billion and $6.52 billion in 2021 and 2020, respectively. The increase in cash flows in 2021 primarily reflected the impacts of higher levels of cash received for premiums and net investment income, partially offset by higher levels of payments for claims and claim adjustment expenses, general and administrative expenses and commissions. The increase in cash received for premiums in 2021 compared to the prior year was impacted by premium refunds provided primarily in 2020 to personal automobile customers in response to COVID-19 and related economic conditions. The increase in cash paid for claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2021 reflected the impact in 2020 of COVID-19 and related economic conditions, such as lower loss payments in the automobile product line due to a decrease in miles driven. Both years were impacted by reduced judicial system and claims settlement activity related to COVID-19 and related economic conditions. Cash paid for claims and claim adjustment expenses in the prior year also benefited from $380 million of subrogation recoveries from PG&E related to the 2017 and 2018 California wildfires received in 2020.
Investing Activities
Net cash used in investing activities was $5.20 billion and $4.89 billion in 2021 and 2020, respectively. The Company’s consolidated total investments at December 31, 2021 increased by $2.95 billion, or 3% over December 31, 2020, primarily reflecting the impact of (i) net cash flows provided by operating activities, partially offset by (ii) a decrease in net unrealized gains on investments at December 31, 2021 as compared with December 31, 2020, due to the impact of higher interest rates during 2021, and (iii) net cash used in financing activities.
The Company’s investment portfolio is managed to support its insurance operations; accordingly, the portfolio is positioned to meet obligations to policyholders. As such, the primary goals of the Company’s asset-liability management process are to satisfy the insurance liabilities and maintain sufficient liquidity to cover fluctuations in projected liability cash flows. Generally, the expected principal and interest payments produced by the Company’s fixed maturity portfolio adequately fund the estimated runoff of the Company’s insurance reserves. Although this is not an exact cash flow match in each period, the substantial amount by which the market value of the fixed maturity portfolio exceeds the value of the net insurance liabilities, as well as the positive cash flow from newly sold policies and the large amount of high quality liquid bonds, contributes to the Company’s ability to fund claim payments without having to sell illiquid assets or access credit facilities.
Financing Activities
Net cash used in financing activities were $2.04 billion and $1.42 billion in 2021 and 2020, respectively. The totals in both 2021 and 2020 reflected common share repurchases and dividends paid to shareholders, partially offset by the net proceeds from the issuance of debt and employee stock option exercises. The total in 2020 also included the payment of $500 million of maturing debt. Common share repurchases in 2021 and 2020 were $2.20 billion and $672 million, respectively.
Debt Transactions.
2021. On June 8, 2021, the Company issued $750 million aggregate principal amount of 3.05% senior notes that will mature on June 8, 2051. The net proceeds of the issuance, after the deduction of the underwriting discount and expenses payable by the Company, totaled approximately $739 million. Interest on the senior notes is payable semi-annually in arrears on June 8 and December 8. Prior to December 8, 2050, the senior notes may be redeemed, in whole or in part, at the Company’s option, at any time or from time to time, at a redemption price equal to the greater of (a) 100% of the principal amount of any senior notes to be redeemed or (b) the sum of the present values of the remaining scheduled payments of principal and interest to but excluding December 8, 2050 on any senior notes to be redeemed (exclusive of interest accrued to the date of redemption) discounted to the date of redemption on a semi-annual basis (assuming a 360-day year consisting of twelve 30-day months) at the then current Treasury rate (as defined in the senior notes), plus 15 basis points. On or after December 8, 2050, the senior notes may be redeemed, in whole or in part, at the Company’s option, at any time or from time to time, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of any senior notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the redemption date.
2020. On April 27, 2020, the Company issued $500 million aggregate principal amount of 2.55% senior notes that will mature on April 27, 2050. The net proceeds of the issuance, after the deduction of the underwriting discount and expenses payable by the Company, totaled approximately $490 million. Interest on the senior notes is payable semi-annually in arrears on April 27 and October 27. Prior to October 27, 2049, the senior notes may be redeemed, in whole or in part, at the Company’s option, at any time or from time to time, at a redemption price equal to the greater of (a) 100% of the principal amount of any senior notes to be redeemed or (b) the sum of the present values of the remaining scheduled payments of principal and interest to but excluding October 27, 2049 on any senior notes to be redeemed (exclusive of interest accrued to the date of redemption)
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discounted to the date of redemption on a semi-annual basis (assuming a 360-day year consisting of twelve 30-day months) at the then current Treasury rate (as defined in the senior notes), plus 25 basis points. On or after October 27, 2049, the senior notes may be redeemed, in whole or in part, at the Company’s option, at any time or from time to time, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of any senior notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the redemption date.
On November 1, 2020, the Company's $500 million, 3.90% senior notes matured and were fully paid.
Dividends. Dividends paid to shareholders were $869 million and $861 million in 2021 and 2020, respectively. The declaration and payment of future dividends to holders of the Company’s common stock will be at the discretion of the Company’s Board of Directors and will depend upon many factors, including the Company’s financial position, earnings, capital requirements of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, legal requirements, regulatory constraints and other factors as the Board of Directors deems relevant. Dividends will be paid by the Company only if declared by its Board of Directors out of funds legally available, subject to any other restrictions that may be applicable to the Company. On January 20, 2022, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.88 per share, payable March 31, 2022 to shareholders of record on March 10, 2022.
Share Repurchases. The Company’s Board of Directors has approved common share repurchase authorizations under which repurchases may be made from time to time in the open market, pursuant to pre-set trading plans meeting the requirements of Rule 10b5-1 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, in private transactions or otherwise. The authorizations do not have a stated expiration date. The most recent authorization was approved by the Board of Directors on April 20, 2021 and added $5.0 billion of repurchase capacity to the $805 million capacity remaining at that date. The Company expects that, generally over time, the combination of dividends to common shareholders and common share repurchases will likely not exceed net income. The Company also expects that to the extent that it continues to grow premium volumes, the amount of capital returned to shareholders relative to earnings would be somewhat less than it otherwise would have been. The timing and actual number of shares to be repurchased in the future will depend on a variety of factors, including the Company’s financial position, earnings, share price, catastrophe losses, maintaining capital levels commensurate with the Company’s desired ratings from independent rating agencies, changes in levels of written premiums, funding of the Company’s qualified pension plan, capital requirements of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, legal requirements, regulatory constraints, other investment opportunities (including mergers and acquisitions and related financings), market conditions and other factors. During 2021, the Company repurchased 13.9 million shares under its share repurchase authorization, for a total of $2.16 billion. The average cost per share repurchased was $154.79. Common share repurchases in 2021 were higher than the total of $625 million in 2020, due, in part, to uncertainties related to the impact of COVID-19 and related economic conditions in 2020. At December 31, 2021, the Company had $4.01 billion of capacity remaining under its share repurchase authorization.
From the inception of the first authorization on May 2, 2006 through December 31, 2021, the Company has repurchased a cumulative total of 526.9 million shares for a total of $36.99 billion, or an average of $70.21 per share.
In both 2021 and 2020, the Company acquired 0.3 million shares of common stock from employees as treasury stock primarily to cover payroll withholding taxes in connection with the vesting of restricted stock unit awards and performance share awards, and shares used by employees to cover the price of certain stock options that were exercised.
Capital Resources
Capital resources reflect the overall financial strength of the Company and its ability to borrow funds at competitive rates and raise new capital to meet its needs. The following table summarizes the components of the Company’s capital structure at December 31, 2021 and 2020:
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| (at December 31, in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt: | |||||||
| Short-term | $ | 100 | $ | 100 | |||
| Long-term | 7,254 | 6,504 | |||||
| Net unamortized fair value adjustments and debt issuance costs | (64) | (54) | |||||
| Total debt | 7,290 | 6,550 | |||||
| Shareholders’ equity: | |||||||
| Common stock and retained earnings, less treasury stock | 27,694 | 26,699 | |||||
| Accumulated other comprehensive income | 1,193 | 2,502 | |||||
| Total shareholders’ equity | 28,887 | 29,201 | |||||
| Total capitalization | $ | 36,177 | $ | 35,751 |
Total capitalization at December 31, 2021 was $36.18 billion, $426 million higher than at December 31, 2020, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) net income of $3.66 billion and (ii) proceeds from the exercise of employee share options of $293 million, partially offset by (iii) common share repurchases totaling $2.16 billion under the Company’s share repurchase authorization, (iv) other comprehensive loss of $1.31 billion, primarily reflecting the decrease in net unrealized appreciation on investments due to an increase in interest rates during 2021, and (v) shareholder dividends of $876 million.
The following table provides a reconciliation of total capitalization presented in the foregoing table to total capitalization excluding net unrealized gains on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders' equity:
| (at December 31, dollars in millions) | 2021 | 2020 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total capitalization | $ | 36,177 | $ | 35,751 | |||
| Less: net unrealized gains on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders' equity | 2,415 | 4,074 | |||||
| Total capitalization excluding net unrealized gains on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders' equity | $ | 33,762 | $ | 31,677 | |||
| Debt-to-total capital ratio | 20.2 | % | 18.3 | % | |||
| Debt-to-total capital ratio excluding net unrealized gains on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders' equity | 21.6 | % | 20.7 | % |
The debt-to-total capital ratio excluding net unrealized gains on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity, is calculated by dividing (a) debt by (b) total capitalization excluding net unrealized gains and losses on investments, net of taxes, included in shareholders’ equity. Net unrealized gains and losses on investments can be significantly impacted by both interest rate movements and other economic factors. Accordingly, in the opinion of the Company’s management, the debt-to-total capital ratio calculated on this basis provides another useful metric for investors to understand the Company’s financial leverage position. The Company’s ratio of debt-to-total capital excluding after-tax net unrealized investment gains included in shareholders’ equity of 21.6% at December 31, 2021 was within the Company’s target range of 15% to 25%.
Credit Agreement. The Company is a party to a five-year, $1.0 billion revolving credit agreement with a syndicate of financial institutions that expires on June 4, 2023. Terms of the credit agreement are discussed in more detail in note 9 of notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Shelf Registration. The Company has filed a universal shelf registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission that expires on June 10, 2022 for the potential offering and sale of securities. The Company may offer these securities from time to time at prices and on other terms to be determined at the time of offering.
Share Repurchase Authorization. At December 31, 2021, the Company had $4.01 billion of capacity remaining under its share repurchase authorization approved by the Board of Directors.
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Cash Requirements from Contractual and Other Obligations
The following table summarizes, as of December 31, 2021, the Company’s future payments under material contractual obligations and estimated claims and claim-related payments. The table includes only liabilities at December 31, 2021 that are expected to be settled in cash.
The table below includes the amount and estimated future timing of claims and claim-related payments. The amounts do not represent the exact liability, but instead represent estimates, generally utilizing actuarial projection techniques, at a given accounting date. These estimates include expectations of what the ultimate settlement and administration of claims will cost based on the Company’s assessment of facts and circumstances known, review of historical settlement patterns, estimates of trends in claims severity, frequency, legal theories of liability and other factors. Variables in the reserve estimation process can be affected by both internal and external events, such as changes in claims handling procedures, economic inflation or deflation, legal trends and legislative changes. Many of these items are not directly quantifiable, particularly on a prospective basis. Additionally, there may be significant reporting lags between the occurrence of the policyholder event and the time it is actually reported to the insurer. The future cash flows related to the items contained in the table below required estimation of both amount (including severity considerations) and timing. Amount and timing are frequently estimated separately. An estimation of both amount and timing of future cash flows related to claims and claim-related payments has unavoidable estimation uncertainty.
The material cash requirements from contractual and other obligations at December 31, 2021 were as follows:
| Payments Due by Period (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt | |||||||||||||||||||
| Senior notes | $ | 7,000 | $ | — | $ | — | $ | 200 | $ | 6,800 | |||||||||
| Junior subordinated debentures | 254 | — | — | — | 254 | ||||||||||||||
| Total debt principal | 7,254 | — | — | 200 | 7,054 | ||||||||||||||
| Interest | 6,919 | 348 | 696 | 689 | 5,186 | ||||||||||||||
| Total long-term debt obligations (1) | 14,173 | 348 | 696 | 889 | 12,240 | ||||||||||||||
| Real estate and other operating leases (2) | 372 | 100 | 149 | 80 | 43 | ||||||||||||||
| Information systems-related commitments (3) | 486 | 285 | 162 | 39 | — | ||||||||||||||
| Long-term unfunded investment commitments (4) | 1,699 | 349 | 558 | 547 | 245 | ||||||||||||||
| Estimated claims and claim-related payments | |||||||||||||||||||
| Claims and claim adjustment expenses (5) | 55,197 | 12,064 | 13,858 | 7,082 | 22,193 | ||||||||||||||
| Claims from large deductible policies (6) | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| Total estimated claims and claim-related payments | 55,197 | 12,064 | 13,858 | 7,082 | 22,193 | ||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 71,927 | $ | 13,146 | $ | 15,423 | $ | 8,637 | $ | 34,721 |
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(1)See note 9 of notes to the consolidated financial statements for a further discussion of outstanding indebtedness. Because the amounts reported in the foregoing table include principal and interest, the total long-term debt obligations will not agree with the amounts reported in note 9.
(2)Represents agreements entered into in the ordinary course of business to lease office space, equipment and furniture.
(3)Includes agreements with vendors to purchase system software (including software as a service), software maintenance services and technology-related costs.
(4)Represents estimated timing for fulfilling unfunded commitments for private equity limited partnerships, real estate partnerships and other, as well as a put/call option entered into by the Company in connection with a business acquisition.
(5)The amounts in “Claims and claim adjustment expenses” in the table above represent the estimated timing of future payments for both reported and unreported claims incurred and related claim adjustment expenses, gross of reinsurance recoverables, excluding structured settlements expected to be paid by annuity companies.
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The Company has entered into reinsurance agreements to manage its exposure to losses and protect its capital as described in note 6 of notes to the consolidated financial statements.
In order to qualify for reinsurance accounting, a reinsurance agreement must indemnify the insurer from insurance risk, i.e., the agreement must transfer amount and timing risk. Since the timing and amount of cash inflows from such reinsurance agreements are directly related to the underlying payment of claims and claim adjustment expenses by the insurer, reinsurance recoverables are recognized in a manner consistent with the liabilities (the estimated liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses) relating to the underlying reinsured contracts. The presence of any feature that can delay timely reimbursement of claims by a reinsurer results in the reinsurance contract being accounted for as a deposit rather than reinsurance. The assumptions used in estimating the amount and timing of the reinsurance recoverables are consistent with those used in estimating the amount and timing of the related liabilities.
The estimated future cash inflows from the Company’s reinsurance contracts that qualify for reinsurance accounting are as follows:
| (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance recoverables | $ | 5,418 | $ | 1,061 | $ | 1,091 | $ | 651 | $ | 2,615 |
The Company manages its business and evaluates its liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses on a net of reinsurance basis. The estimated cash flows on a net of reinsurance basis are as follows:
| (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claims and claim adjustment expenses, net | $ | 49,779 | $ | 11,003 | $ | 12,767 | $ | 6,431 | $ | 19,578 |
For business underwritten by non-U.S. operations, future cash flows related to reported and unreported claims incurred and related claim adjustment expenses were translated at the spot rate on December 31, 2021.
The amounts reported in the table above and in the table of reinsurance recoverables above are presented on a nominal basis and have not been adjusted to reflect the time value of money. Accordingly, the amounts above will differ from the Company’s balance sheet to the extent that the liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses and the related reinsurance recoverables have been discounted in the balance sheet. See note 1 of notes to the consolidated financial statements.
(6) Workers’ compensation large deductible policies provide third-party coverage in which the Company typically is responsible for paying the entire loss under such policies and then seeks reimbursement from the insured for the deductible amount. “Claims from large deductible policies” represent the estimated future payment for claims and claim related expenses below the deductible amount, net of the estimated recovery of the deductible. The liability and the related deductible receivable for unpaid claims are presented in the consolidated balance sheet as “contractholder payables” and “contractholder receivables,” respectively. Most deductibles for such policies are paid directly from the policyholder’s escrow, which is periodically replenished by the policyholder. The payment of the loss amounts above the deductible are reported within “Claims and claim adjustment expenses” in the above table. Because the timing of the collection of the deductible (contractholder receivables) occurs shortly after the payment of the deductible to a claimant (contractholder payables), these cash flows offset each other in the table.
The estimated timing of the payment of the contractholder payables and the collection of contractholder receivables (net of allowance for expected credit losses) for workers’ compensation policies is presented below:
| (in millions) | Total | Less than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 3-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contractholder payables/receivables | $ | 3,890 | $ | 1,121 | $ | 1,109 | $ | 531 | $ | 1,129 |
The above table does not include an analysis of liabilities reported for structured settlements for which the Company has purchased annuities and remains contingently liable in the event of default by the company issuing the annuity. The Company is not reasonably likely to incur material future payment obligations under such agreements. In addition, the Company is not currently subject to any minimum funding requirements for its qualified pension plan. Accordingly, future contributions are not included in the foregoing table.
The Company believes that the combination of operating company liquidity, holding company liquidity, its investment portfolio and its capital resources are sufficient to meet its contractual obligations.
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Dividend Availability
The Company’s principal insurance subsidiaries are domiciled in the State of Connecticut. The insurance holding company laws of Connecticut applicable to the Company’s subsidiaries requires notice to, and approval by, the state insurance commissioner for the declaration or payment of any dividend that, together with other distributions made within the preceding twelve months, exceeds the greater of 10% of the insurer’s statutory capital and surplus as of the preceding December 31, or the insurer’s net income for the twelve-month period ending the preceding December 31, in each case determined in accordance with statutory accounting practices and by state regulation. This declaration or payment is further limited by adjusted unassigned surplus, as determined in accordance with statutory accounting practices. The insurance holding company laws of other states in which the Company’s subsidiaries are domiciled generally contain similar, although in some instances somewhat more restrictive, limitations on the payment of dividends. A maximum of $3.08 billion is available by the end of 2022 for such dividends to the holding company, TRV, without prior approval of the Connecticut Insurance Department. The Company may choose to accelerate the timing within 2022 and/or increase the amount of dividends from its insurance subsidiaries in 2022, which could result in certain dividends being subject to approval by the Connecticut Insurance Department.
In addition to the regulatory restrictions on the availability of dividends that can be paid by the Company’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries, the maximum amount of dividends that may be paid to the Company’s shareholders is limited, to a lesser degree, by certain covenants contained in its line of credit agreement with a syndicate of financial institutions that require the Company to maintain a minimum consolidated net worth as described in note 9 of notes to the consolidated financial statements.
TRV is not dependent on dividends or other forms of repatriation from its foreign operations to support its liquidity needs. The undistributed earnings of the Company’s foreign operations are intended to be permanently reinvested in those operations, and such earnings were not material to the Company’s financial position or liquidity at December 31, 2021.
TRV and its two non-insurance holding company subsidiaries received dividends of $2.18 billion and $2.00 billion from their U.S. insurance subsidiaries in 2021 and 2020, respectively.
Pension and Other Postretirement Benefit Plans
The Company sponsors a qualified non-contributory defined benefit pension plan (the qualified domestic pension plan), which covers substantially all U.S. domestic employees and provides benefits primarily under a cash balance formula. In addition, the Company sponsors a nonqualified defined benefit pension plan which covers certain highly-compensated employees, pension plans for employees of its foreign subsidiaries, and a postretirement health and life insurance benefit plan for employees satisfying certain age and service requirements and for certain retirees.
The qualified domestic pension plan is subject to regulations under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 as amended (ERISA), which requires plans to meet minimum standards of funding and requires such plans to subscribe to plan termination insurance through the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). The Company does not have a minimum funding requirement for the qualified domestic pension plan for 2022 and does not anticipate having a minimum funding requirement in 2023. The Company has significant discretion in making contributions above those necessary to satisfy the minimum funding requirements. In 2021, 2020 and 2019, there was no minimum funding requirement for the qualified domestic pension plan. In 2021, 2020 and 2019, the Company made no voluntary contributions to the qualified domestic pension plan. The qualified domestic pension plan had a funded status of 116% and 107% at December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Based on its funded status at December 31, 2021, the Company does not currently anticipate making a voluntary contribution to the qualified domestic pension plan in 2022. In determining future contributions, the Company will consider the performance of the plan’s investment portfolio, the effects of interest rates on the projected benefit obligation of the plan and the Company’s other capital requirements.
The qualified domestic pension plan assets are managed to maximize long-term total return while maintaining an appropriate level of risk. The Company’s overall investment strategy is to achieve a mix of approximately 85% to 90% of investments for long-term growth and 10% to 15% for near-term benefit payments with a diversification of asset types, fund strategies and fund managers. The current target allocations for plan assets are 55% to 65% equity securities and 20% to 40% fixed income securities, with the remainder allocated to short-term securities. For 2022, the Company plans to apply an expected long-term rate of return on plan assets of 6.50%, comparable with 2021. The expected rate of return reflects the Company’s current expectations with regard to long-term returns in the capital markets, taking into account the pension plan’s asset allocation targets, the historical performance and current valuation of U.S. and international equities, and the level of long term interest rate and inflation expectations.
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For further discussion of the pension and other postretirement benefit plans, see note 15 of notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Risk-Based Capital
The NAIC has an RBC requirement for most property and casualty insurance companies, which determines minimum capital requirements and is intended to raise the level of protection for policyholder obligations. The Company’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries are subject to these NAIC RBC requirements based on laws that have been adopted by individual states. These requirements subject insurers having policyholders’ surplus less than that required by the RBC calculation to varying degrees of regulatory action, depending on the level of capital inadequacy. Each of the Company’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries had policyholders’ surplus at December 31, 2021 significantly above the level at which any RBC regulatory action would occur. Regulators in the jurisdictions in which the Company’s foreign insurance subsidiaries are located require insurance companies to maintain certain levels of capital depending on, among other things, the type and amount of insurance policies written. Each of the Company’s foreign insurance subsidiaries had capital significantly above their respective regulatory requirements at December 31, 2021.
Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements
The Company has entered into certain contingent obligations for guarantees related to selling businesses to third parties, certain investments, certain insurance policy obligations of former insurance subsidiaries and various other indemnifications. See note 17 of notes to the consolidated financial statements. The Company does not believe it is reasonably likely that these arrangements will have a material current or future effect on the Company’s financial position, changes in financial position, revenues and expenses, results of operations, liquidity, capital expenditures or capital resources.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
The Company considers its most significant accounting estimates to be those applied to claims and claim adjustment expense reserves and related reinsurance recoverables, and impairments of investments, goodwill and other intangible assets.
Claims and Claim Adjustment Expense Reserves
Gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves by product line were as follows:
| December 31, 2021 | December 31, 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in millions) | Case | IBNR | Total | Case | IBNR | Total | |||||||||||||||||
| General liability | $ | 5,351 | $ | 8,863 | $ | 14,214 | $ | 5,267 | $ | 8,098 | $ | 13,365 | |||||||||||
| Commercial property | 1,220 | 392 | 1,612 | 1,006 | 366 | 1,372 | |||||||||||||||||
| Commercial multi-peril | 2,404 | 2,573 | 4,977 | 2,354 | 2,311 | 4,665 | |||||||||||||||||
| Commercial automobile | 2,594 | 2,335 | 4,929 | 2,551 | 2,231 | 4,782 | |||||||||||||||||
| Workers’ compensation | 10,152 | 9,551 | 19,703 | 10,271 | 9,514 | 19,785 | |||||||||||||||||
| Fidelity and surety | 188 | 436 | 624 | 215 | 317 | 532 | |||||||||||||||||
| Personal automobile | 2,062 | 1,765 | 3,827 | 1,901 | 1,514 | 3,415 | |||||||||||||||||
| Personal homeowners and other | 1,021 | 1,395 | 2,416 | 901 | 1,168 | 2,069 | |||||||||||||||||
| International and other | 2,525 | 2,070 | 4,595 | 2,565 | 1,960 | 4,525 | |||||||||||||||||
| Property-casualty | 27,517 | 29,380 | 56,897 | 27,031 | 27,479 | 54,510 | |||||||||||||||||
| Accident and health | 10 | — | 10 | 11 | — | 11 | |||||||||||||||||
| Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves | $ | 27,527 | $ | 29,380 | $ | 56,907 | $ | 27,042 | $ | 27,479 | $ | 54,521 |
The $2.39 billion increase in gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves since December 31, 2020 primarily reflected the impacts of (i) higher volumes of insured exposures, (ii) catastrophe losses in 2021, (iii) loss cost trends for the current
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accident year and (iv) reduced claim settlement activity largely due to continued disruptions in the judicial system related to COVID-19.
Asbestos and environmental reserves are included in the General liability, Commercial multi-peril and International and other lines in the foregoing summary table. Asbestos and environmental reserves are discussed separately; see “Asbestos Claims and Litigation,” “Environmental Claims and Litigation” and “Uncertainty Regarding Adequacy of Asbestos and Environmental Reserves” herein.
Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves represent management’s estimate of the ultimate liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses for claims that have been reported and claims that have been incurred but not yet reported (IBNR) as of the balance sheet date. Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves do not represent an exact calculation of liability, but instead represent management estimates, primarily utilizing actuarial expertise and projection methods. These estimates are expectations of what the ultimate settlement and administration of claims will cost upon final resolution in the future, based on the Company’s assessment of facts and circumstances then known, review of historical settlement patterns, estimates of trends in claims severity and frequency, expected interpretations of legal theories of liability and other factors. In establishing gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, the Company also considers salvage and subrogation. Estimated recoveries from reinsurance are included in “Reinsurance Recoverables” as an asset on the Company’s consolidated balance sheet. The claims and claim adjustment expense reserves are reviewed regularly by qualified actuaries employed by the Company.
The process of estimating claims and claim adjustment expense reserves involves a high degree of judgment and is subject to a number of variables. These variables can be affected by both internal and external events, such as changes in claims handling procedures, changes in individuals involved in the reserve estimation process, economic inflation, changes in the tort environment, legal trends and legislative changes, among others. The impact of many of these items on ultimate costs for claims and claim adjustment expenses is difficult to estimate. Estimation difficulties also differ significantly by product line due to differences in claim complexity, the volume of claims, the potential severity of individual claims, the determination of occurrence date for a claim and reporting lags (the time between the occurrence of the policyholder event and when it is actually reported to the insurer). Informed judgment is applied throughout the process, including the application of various individual experiences and expertise to multiple sets of data and analyses. The Company refines its estimates in a regular ongoing process as historical loss experience develops and additional claims are reported and settled. The Company rigorously attempts to consider all significant facts and circumstances known at the time claims and claim adjustment expense reserves are established. Due to the inherent uncertainty underlying these estimates including, but not limited to, the future settlement environment, final resolution of the estimated liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses may be higher or lower than the related claims and claim adjustment expense reserves at the reporting date. Therefore, actual paid losses, as claims are settled in the future, may be materially different than the amount currently recorded-favorable or unfavorable. Because establishment of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves is an inherently uncertain process involving estimates and the application of judgment, currently established claims and claim adjustment expense reserves may change. The Company reflects adjustments to the reserves in the results of operations in the period the estimates are changed.
There are also additional risks which impact the estimation of ultimate costs for catastrophes. For example, the estimation of reserves related to hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires and other catastrophic events can be affected by the inability of the Company and its insureds to access portions of the impacted areas, the complexity of factors contributing to the losses, the legal and regulatory uncertainties, including the interpretation of policy terms and conditions, and the nature of the information available to establish the reserves. Complex factors include, but are not limited to: determining whether damage was caused by flooding versus wind; evaluating general liability and pollution exposures; estimating additional living expenses; estimating the impact of demand surge, infrastructure disruption, fraud, the effect of mold damage and business interruption costs; and reinsurance collectibility. The timing of a catastrophe, such as at or near the end of a reporting period, can also affect the information available to the Company in estimating reserves for that reporting period. The estimates related to catastrophes are adjusted as actual claims emerge.
A portion of the Company’s gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves (totaling $2.04 billion at December 31, 2021) are for asbestos and environmental claims and related litigation. While the ongoing review of asbestos and environmental claims and associated liabilities considers the inconsistencies of court decisions as to coverage, plaintiffs’ expanded theories of liability and the risks inherent in complex litigation and other uncertainties, in the opinion of the Company’s management, it is possible that the outcome of the continued uncertainties regarding these claims could result in liability in future periods that differs from current insurance reserves by an amount that could be material to the Company’s future operating results. See the preceding discussion of “Asbestos Claims and Litigation” and “Environmental Claims and Litigation.”
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General Discussion
The process for estimating the liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses begins with the collection and analysis of claim data. Data on individual reported claims, both current and historical, including paid amounts and individual claim adjuster estimates, are grouped by common characteristics (components) and evaluated by actuaries in their analyses of ultimate claim liabilities. Such data is occasionally supplemented with external data as available and when appropriate. The process of analyzing reserves for a component is undertaken on a regular basis, generally quarterly, in light of continually updated information.
Multiple estimation methods are available for the analysis of ultimate claim liabilities. Each estimation method has its own set of assumption variables and its own advantages and disadvantages, with no single estimation method being better than the others in all situations and no one set of assumption variables being meaningful for all product line components. The relative strengths and weaknesses of the particular estimation methods when applied to a particular group of claims can also change over time. Therefore, the actual choice of estimation method(s) can change with each evaluation. The estimation method(s) chosen are those that are believed to produce the most reliable indication at that particular evaluation date for the claim liabilities being evaluated.
In most cases, multiple estimation methods will be valid for the particular facts and circumstances of the claim liabilities being evaluated. This will result in a range of reasonable estimates for any particular claim liability. The Company uses such range analyses to back test whether previously established estimates for reserves by reporting segments are reasonable, given available information. Reported values found to be closer to the endpoints of a range of reasonable estimates are subject to further detailed reviews. These reviews may substantiate the validity of management’s recorded estimate or lead to a change in the reported estimate.
The exact boundary points of these ranges are more qualitative than quantitative in nature, as no clear line of demarcation exists to determine when the set of underlying assumptions for an estimation method switches from being reasonable to unreasonable. As a result, the Company does not believe that the endpoints of these ranges are or would be comparable across companies. In addition, potential interactions among the different estimation assumptions for different product lines make the aggregation of individual ranges a highly judgmental and inexact process.
Property-casualty insurance policies are either written on a “claims-made” or on an “occurrence” basis. Claims-made policies generally cover, subject to requirements in individual policies, claims reported during the policy period. Policies that are written on an occurrence basis require that the insured demonstrate that a loss occurred in the policy period, even if the insured reports the loss many years later.
Most general liability policies are written on an occurrence basis. These policies are subject to substantial loss development over time as facts and circumstances change in the years following the policy issuance. The occurrence form, which accounts for much of the reserve development in asbestos and environmental exposures, is also used to provide coverage for construction general liability, including construction defect. Occurrence-based forms of insurance for general liability exposures require substantial projection of loss trends, which can be influenced by a number of factors, including future inflation, judicial interpretations and societal litigation trends (e.g., size of jury awards and propensity of individuals to pursue litigation), among others.
A basic premise in most actuarial analyses is that past patterns demonstrated in the data will repeat themselves in the future, absent a material change in the associated risk factors discussed below. To the extent a material change affecting the ultimate claim liability is known, such change is estimated to the extent possible through an analysis of internal company data and, if available and when appropriate, external data. Such a measurement is specific to the facts and circumstances of the particular claim portfolio and the known change being evaluated. Significant structural changes to the available data, product mix or organization can materially impact the reserve estimation process. In addition, the introduction of new products creates a unique risk as historical company data would typically not be available.
Informed judgment is applied throughout the reserving process. This includes the application of various individual experiences and expertise to multiple sets of data and analyses. In addition to actuaries, experts involved with the reserving process also include underwriting and claims personnel and lawyers, as well as other company management. Therefore, management may have to consider varying individual viewpoints as part of its estimation of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves. It is also likely that during periods of significant change, such as a merger, consistent application of informed judgment becomes even more complicated and difficult.
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The variables discussed above in this general discussion have different impacts on reserve estimation uncertainty for a given product line, depending on the length of the claim tail, the reporting lag, the impact of individual claims and the complexity of the claim process for a given product line.
Product lines are generally classifiable as either long tail or short tail, based on the average length of time between the event triggering claims under a policy and the final resolution of those claims. Short tail claims are reported and settled quickly, resulting in less estimation variability. The longer the time to final claim resolution, the greater the exposure to estimation risks and hence the greater the estimation uncertainty.
A major component of the claim tail is the reporting lag. The reporting lag, which is the time between the event triggering a claim and the reporting of the claim to the insurer, makes estimating IBNR inherently more uncertain. In addition, the greater the reporting lag, the greater the proportion of IBNR to the total claim liability for the product line. Writing new products with material reporting lags can result in adding several years’ worth of IBNR claim exposure before the reporting lag exposure becomes clearly observable, thereby increasing the risk associated with estimating the liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses for such products. The most extreme example of claim liabilities with long reporting lags are asbestos claims.
For some lines, the impact of large individual claims can be material to the analysis. These lines are generally referred to as being “low frequency/high severity,” while lines without this “large claim” sensitivity are referred to as “high frequency/low severity.” Estimates of claim liabilities for low frequency/high severity lines can be sensitive to the impact of a small number of potentially large claims. As a result, the role of judgment is much greater for these reserve estimates. In contrast, for high frequency/low severity lines the impact of individual claims is relatively minor and the range of reasonable reserve estimates is likely narrower and more stable.
Claim complexity can also greatly affect the estimation process by impacting the number of assumptions needed to produce the estimate, the potential stability of the underlying data and claim process, and the ability to gain an understanding of the data. Product lines with greater claim complexity, such as for certain surety and construction exposures, have inherently greater estimation uncertainty.
Actuaries have to exercise a considerable degree of judgment in the evaluation of all these factors in their analysis of reserves. The human element in the application of actuarial judgment is unavoidable when faced with material uncertainty. Different actuaries may choose different assumptions when faced with such uncertainty, based on their individual backgrounds, professional experiences and areas of focus. Hence, the estimates selected by the various actuaries may differ materially from each other.
Lastly, significant structural changes to the available data, product mix or organization can also materially impact the reserve estimation process. Events such as mergers increase the inherent uncertainty of reserve estimates for a period of time, until stable trends re-establish themselves within the new organization.