UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP)

Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

The following discussion should be read in conjunction with the Consolidated Financial Statements and applicable notes to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8, and other information in this report, including Risk Factors set forth in Item 1A and Critical Accounting Estimates and Cautionary Information at the end of this Item 7. The following section generally discusses 2024 and 2023 items and year-to-year comparisons between 2024 and 2023. Discussions of 2022 items and year-to-year comparisons between 2023 and 2022 that are not included in this Form 10-K can be found in “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Part II, Item 7, of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023.

The Railroad, along with its subsidiaries and rail affiliates, is our one reportable operating segment. Although we provide and analyze revenues by commodity group, we treat the financial results of the Railroad as one segment due to the integrated nature of our rail network.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2024 Results

•Safety – 2024 was a transformational year on our journey to becoming the safest railroad. Our strategy is broken into four pillars – Injury Prevention, Leverage Technology, Situational Awareness Testing, and Peer-to-Peer Engagement.

Injury Prevention efforts focus on specific, critical tasks to reduce the risk of injury or derailment. These critical tasks are those where any form of non-compliance can result in a serious injury. Training is key to helping our employees understand how to execute those tasks safely.

We are Leveraging Technology to eliminate or automate activities with the most risk. We have more than 7,000 wayside detectors that monitor freight cars and locomotives in real time, generating 16 million data points daily to proactively identify and mitigate risks. We are building safer trains with our proprietary Physics Train Builder technology, which allows us to evaluate train and route characteristics to enable proactive intervention by our Operating Practices Command Center to prevent derailments. We utilize our autonomous geometry car fleet to inspect 500,000 miles of track annually. This technology and the data it provides enable us to direct investments and resources in the right place, helping to significantly reduce track-caused derailments over the last 10 years.

Situational Awareness Testing (a program we call COMMIT) is our program that observes, tests, and coaches our employees to promote understanding and compliance with our work rules. This goes beyond the classroom, with an emphasis on being in the field with the employees as they are performing the activities that run the railroad.

Peer-to-Peer Engagement is driving employee ownership through engagement with our safety programs. This is our culture, a personal commitment to do our jobs with a passion for safety so everyone goes home safely. Employees are encouraged to speak up if they see unsafe behaviors.

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The focus on these four pillars is driving results. Our personal injury rate (the number of reportable injuries for every 200,000 employee-hours worked) is down 23% and our derailment incident rate (the number of reportable derailment incidents per million train miles) down 20% compared to 2023 results.

•Service – Service performance index for both intermodal and manifest products improved 2 and 4 points, respectively, compared to 2023. Throughout the year we improved network fluidity as reflected in 2% faster freight car velocity and record terminal dwell, improved 3% from 2023.

•Operational Excellence – Network performance throughout 2024 was strong. While we experienced some powerful weather events in the second quarter and a second half surge in international intermodal shipments, most of our operating metrics improved year-over year. We maintained a resource buffer that allowed us to strategically integrate crews, locomotives, and freight cars into the network to efficiently handle the growth and recover from the weather events.

•Financial Results – Core pricing gains, strong productivity, and 3% volume growth positively impacted our financial results. Operating income of $9.7 billion increased 7% from 2023, and our operating ratio was 59.9%, improving 2.4 points from 2023. Net income of $6.7 billion translated into earnings of $11.09 per diluted share, up 6% from 2023.

We generated $9.3 billion of cash provided by operating activities, yielded free cash flow of $2.8 billion after reductions of $3.3 billion for cash used in investing activities and $3.2 billion in dividends paid. Both cash provided by operating activities and free cash flow were higher by $384 million due to payments in 2023 related to back wages for agreements reached with our labor unions.

Free cash flow is defined as cash provided by operating activities less cash used in investing activities and dividends paid. Free cash flow is not considered a financial measure under GAAP by SEC Regulation G and Item 10 of SEC Regulation S-K and may not be defined and calculated by other companies in the same manner. We believe free cash flow is important to management and investors in evaluating our financial performance and measures our ability to generate cash without additional external financing. Free cash flow should be considered in addition to, rather than as a substitute for, cash provided by operating activities. The following table reconciles cash provided by operating activities (GAAP measure) to free cash flow (non-GAAP measure):

2025 Outlook

•Safety – Our goal is to be an industry leader in safety, and we are committed to continuously finding new ways to enhance safety. In 2025, we will continue to focus on our four pillars of safety. Training that engages both new and experienced employees is fundamental to our success. Critical safety tasks will be reinforced and enhanced by adding critical-thinking scenarios to the classroom curriculum. We will continue using a comprehensive safety management approach utilizing technology, hazard identification and risk assessments, employee engagement, training, quality control, and targeted capital investments. In addition, we will continue to collect and utilize data with the goal of identifying and mitigating exposure to risk, detect rail defects, improve or close grade crossings, and educate the public and law enforcement agencies about crossing safety through a combination of our own programs (including risk assessment strategies), industry programs, and local community activities across the network. Safety is paramount to the success of the railroad and deeply ingrained in our culture, and this will not change in 2025.

•Service – We are committed to delivering the service we sold to our customers. As we meet with customers to agree on their specific needs and outcomes, we will continue to measure ourselves against the best service we provided them over the last three years and use that as a guide for meeting their expectations. We will engage with customers by being the first to act on new opportunities, investing to grow, and finding innovative solutions to win together.

•Operational Excellence – To provide our customers with the service we sold, we must run a fluid network. Network fluidity enables us to effectively utilize all our resources and provides the capacity to respond in an ever-changing environment. Terminal dwell and freight car velocity are key indicators of that fluidity. We will continue to transform our railroad using technology and automation to further improve our service product, improve resource utilization, and lower our overall cost structure.

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•Business Volumes – Macroeconomic uncertainties remain in 2025 that could have a material impact on our 2025 financial and operating results. Current forecasts for 2025 industrial production show a slight increase versus 2024. In addition, other factors, such as imposition of higher tariffs and changes in domestic and foreign monetary policy may affect economic activity and demand for rail transportation; natural gas prices, weather conditions, and demand for other energy sources may impact the coal market; crude oil prices and spreads may drive demand for petroleum products and drilling materials; available truck capacity could impact our intermodal business; and international trade agreements could promote or hinder trade. Lower coal demand, resulting from ongoing competitive energy dynamics and reduced coal-fired electricity production, and lower international intermodal business, due to the west coast volume surge in 2024, are expected to negatively impact volumes. Additionally, the way our customers are affected by and respond to the implementation of new tariffs may influence our volume levels and traffic flows. Fuel prices may continue to fluctuate in the current economic environment. As prices fluctuate, there will be a timing impact on earnings, as our fuel surcharge programs trail increases or decreases in fuel prices by approximately two months. Regardless of external factors, we will focus on operating a safe railroad and delivering the service we sold to our customers as well as effective asset utilization, cost control, and seeking new business opportunities.

RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

Operating Revenues

We generate freight revenues by transporting products from our three commodity groups. Freight revenues vary with volumes (carloads) and average revenue per car (ARC). Changes in price, traffic mix, and fuel surcharges drive ARC. Customer incentives, which are primarily provided for shipping to/from specific locations or based on cumulative volumes, are recorded as a reduction to operating revenues. Customer incentives that include variable consideration based on cumulative volumes are estimated using the expected value method, which is based on available historical, current, and forecasted volumes, and recognized as the related performance obligation is satisfied. We recognize freight revenues over time as shipments move from origin to destination. The allocation of revenues between reporting periods is based on the relative transit time in each reporting period with expenses recognized as incurred.

Other subsidiary revenues (primarily logistics and commuter rail operations) are generally recognized over time as shipments move from origin to destination. The allocation of revenues between reporting periods is based on the relative transit time in each reporting period with expenses recognized as incurred. Accessorial revenues are recognized at a point in time as performance obligations are satisfied.

Freight revenues increased 1% year-over-year to $22.8 billion driven by a 3% increase in volumes and core pricing gains, partially offset by lower fuel surcharge revenues and negative mix of traffic (for example, a relative increase in international intermodal shipments, which have a lower ARC). Volume increases were primarily driven by international intermodal and grain and grain product shipments, partially offset by weaker demand for coal and rock shipments.

Our fuel surcharge programs generated freight revenues of $2.6 billion and $3.0 billion in 2024 and 2023, respectively. Fuel surcharge revenues in 2024 decreased $0.4 billion due to a 15% decrease in fuel prices and the lag impact of fluctuating fuel prices (it can generally take up to two months for changing fuel prices to affect fuel surcharge recoveries), partially offset by higher volumes.

In 2024, other subsidiary revenues decreased compared to 2023 primarily driven by a weaker demand for intermodal shipments at our subsidiary that brokers intermodal and transload logistics services and the partial transfer of our commuter operations to Metra. Accessorial revenues decreased in 2024 compared to 2023 driven by lower intermodal accessorial revenues because of our intermodal equipment sale, partially offset by a one-time contract settlement.

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The following tables summarize the year-over-year changes in freight revenues, revenue carloads, and ARC by commodity type:

[a]For intermodal shipments, each container or trailer equals one carload.

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Bulk – Bulk includes shipments of grain and grain products, fertilizer, food and refrigerated, and coal and renewables. Freight revenues from bulk shipments decreased in 2024 compared to 2023 due to lower volumes and lower fuel surcharge revenues, partially offset by positive mix, from decreased coal shipments, and core pricing gains. Volumes declined 4% compared to 2023 driven by reduced use of coal in electricity generation because of low natural gas prices, coal fired plant capacity, and mild winter weather, partially offset by strength in export grain to Mexico and several other grain products. Additionally, the volume declines were partially offset by increased fertilizer shipments due to strong demand and a 2023 customer outage. Volumes for coal and renewables and food and refrigerated shipments were negatively impacted by outages and service challenges due to repeated snow events in Wyoming and flooding in California in the first quarter of 2023 positively impacting the year-over-year comparisons.

Industrial – Industrial includes shipments of industrial chemicals and plastics, metals and minerals, forest products, and energy and specialized markets. Freight revenues from industrial shipments increased in 2024 versus 2023 due to core pricing gains and positive mix of traffic from decreased short haul rock shipments and increased petroleum shipments, partially offset by lower fuel surcharge revenues and lower volumes. Volumes decreased 1% compared to 2023 driven by lower demand for rock, due to weather, high inventories, and softness in Southern markets, and decreased sand shipments due to the use of local sources, partially offset by strength in petroleum, industrial chemicals, and plastics.

Premium – Premium includes shipments of finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers, both domestic and international. Freight revenues from premium shipments increased driven by higher volumes and core pricing gains, partially offset by lower fuel surcharge revenues and negative mix. Starting in the third quarter of 2024, international intermodal experienced heavy demand due to increased U.S. West Coast imports, a result of freight shifting from the East Coast and Canadian ports due to uncertainty related to labor negotiations, driving volumes up over 30% in the second half of the year compared to the second half of 2023. In addition, business development efforts in domestic intermodal drove volume growth in 2024 compared to 2023. Automotive shipments were flat year-over-year as business development wins were offset by market weakness and unplanned production decreases.

2024 Bulk Carloads

2024 Industrial Carloads

2024 Premium Carloads

Mexico Business – Freight revenues from each of our commodity groups includes revenues from shipments to and from Mexico, which amounted to $3.0 billion in 2024, up 8% compared to 2023, driven by a 3% volumes increase and a 4% increase in ARC. The volume increases were driven by higher grain and grain product shipments and finished vehicle shipments, partially offset by lower automotive parts shipments.

Operating Expenses

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Operating expenses decreased $500 million, or 3%, in 2024 compared to 2023 driven by lower fuel prices, productivity, a gain on the sale of intermodal equipment in 2024, partially offset by inflation, volume-related costs, and higher depreciation. In addition, positively impacting the year-over-year comparison are lower labor agreement ratification charges as we reached agreements impacting crew staffing in both years, and lower weather-related costs from less impactful winter weather in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 2023.

2024 Operating Expenses

Compensation and Benefits – Compensation and benefits include wages, payroll taxes, health and welfare costs, pension costs, and incentive costs. In 2024, expenses increased 2% compared to 2023 due to wage inflation, which includes the impact of labor agreements to modernize work rules and improve availability, higher incentive compensation, and increased crew needs associated with labor agreements and increased volumes, partially offset by 4% lower employee levels. Train, engine, and yard (TE&Y) force levels were flat compared to 2023 as improved network fluidity allowed us to handle a 3% increase in volumes and the increased needs associated with labor agreements without increasing the size of that workforce.

Purchased Services and Materials – Expense for purchased services and materials includes the costs of services purchased from outside contractors and other service providers (including equipment maintenance and contract expenses incurred by our subsidiaries for external transportation services); materials used to maintain the Railroad’s lines, structures, and equipment; costs of operating facilities jointly used by UPRR and other railroads; transportation and lodging for train crew employees; trucking and contracting costs for intermodal containers; leased automobile maintenance expenses; and tools and supplies. Purchased services and materials decreased 4% in 2024 compared to 2023 driven by declines in locomotive maintenance expense due to a smaller active fleet as productivity improved year-over-year, decreased volume-related drayage cost incurred at one of our subsidiaries, and a favorable contract settlement, partially offset by inflation and volume-related costs.

Fuel – Fuel includes locomotive fuel and gasoline for highway and non-highway vehicles and heavy equipment. Fuel expense decreased compared to 2023 due to a decrease in locomotive diesel fuel prices, which averaged $2.64 per gallon (including taxes and transportation costs) in 2024 compared to $3.09 per gallon in 2023, resulting in a $0.4 billion decrease in expense (excluding any impact from decreased volumes year-over-year), and a 1% improvement to the fuel consumption rate in 2024 (computed as gallons of fuel consumed divided by gross ton-miles), partially offset by a 1% increase in gross ton-miles.

Depreciation – The majority of depreciation relates to road property, including rail, ties, ballast, and other track material. Depreciation expense was up 3% in 2024 compared to 2023 due to a higher depreciable asset base.

Equipment and Other Rents – Equipment and other rents expense primarily includes rental expense that the Railroad pays for freight cars owned by other railroads or private companies; freight car, intermodal, and locomotive leases; and office and other rent expenses, offset by equity income from certain equity method investments. Equipment and other rents expense decreased 3% compared to 2023 due to lower lease expense and improved cycle times, partially offset by increased demand in commodities utilizing freight cars owned by others and inflation.

Other – Other expenses include state and local taxes; freight, equipment, and property damage; utilities; insurance; personal injury; environmental; employee travel; telephone and cellular; computer software; bad debt; and other general expenses. Other expenses decreased 8% in 2024 compared to 2023 driven by lower personal injury costs, a 2024 gain on the sale of intermodal equipment, and a 2023 write-off, partially offset by higher freight loss and damage and other casualty cost.

Non-Operating Items

Other Income, net – Other income decreased in 2024 compared to 2023 driven by a $107 million real estate transaction in 2023 and lower income from other real estate transactions, partially offset by interest received in 2024 from the IRS on refund claims. See Note 6 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8, for additional detail.

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Interest Expense – Interest expense decreased in 2024 compared to 2023 due to a decreased weighted-average debt level of $31.6 billion in 2024 from $33.2 billion in 2023. The effective interest rate was 4.0% in both periods.

Income Tax Expense – Income tax expense increased in 2024 compared to 2023 driven by higher pre-tax income in 2024 and higher deferred tax expense reductions in 2023, partially offset by the benefit of purchased federal tax credits in 2024. In 2024, the states of Louisiana and Arkansas enacted legislation to reduce their corporate income tax rates for future years resulting in a $34 million reduction of our deferred tax expense. In 2023, the states of Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, and Arkansas enacted legislation to reduce their corporate income tax rates for future years resulting in a $114 million reduction of our deferred tax expense. Our effective tax rates for 2024 and 2023 were 23.3% and 22.5%, respectively.

OTHER OPERATING/PERFORMANCE AND FINANCIAL STATISTICS

We report a number of key performance measures weekly to the STB. We provide these on our website at https://investor.unionpacific.com/key-performance-metrics.

Operating/Performance Statistics

Management continuously monitors these key operating metrics to evaluate our operational efficiency in striving to deliver the service product we sold to our customers.

Railroad performance measures are included in the table below:

[a]As reported to the STB.

Gross and Revenue Ton-Miles – Gross ton-miles are calculated by multiplying the weight of loaded and empty freight cars by the number of miles hauled. Revenue ton-miles are calculated by multiplying the weight of freight by the number of tariff miles. In 2024, gross ton-miles increased 1% and revenue ton-miles decreased 1%, while carloadings were up 3% year-over-year. Changes in commodity mix drove the year-over-year variances between gross ton-miles, revenue ton-miles, and carloads due to lower coal shipments, which are heavier, and increased international intermodal shipments that are lighter.

Freight Car Velocity – Freight car velocity measures the average daily miles per car on our network. The two key drivers of this metric are the speed of the train between terminals (average train speed) and the time a rail car spends at the terminals (average terminal dwell time). Freight car velocity increased 2% driven by record terminal dwell levels. The 2023 metrics were negatively impacted by operational challenges caused by weather in the first quarter and train crew shortages in some locations in the first half of 2023, positively impacting the year-over-year comparison.

Locomotive Productivity – Locomotive productivity is gross ton-miles per average daily locomotive horsepower. Locomotive productivity improved 5% in 2024 compared to 2023 driven by improved network fluidity and asset utilization despite maintaining a buffer in 2024 to flex the fleet size as we experienced and subsequently recovered from certain weather events and reacted to higher volume levels.

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Train Length – Train length is the average maximum train length on a route measured in feet. Our train length increased 1% compared to 2023 due to train length improvement initiatives and increases in international intermodal shipments, which generally move on longer trains, partially offset by declines in coal train length.

Service Performance Index (SPI) – SPI is a ratio of the service customers are currently receiving relative to the best monthly performance over the last three years. Measuring our performance relative to a historical benchmark demonstrates our focus on continuously improving service for our customers, and we believe it is a better indicator of service performance than the previously disclosed trip plan compliance. SPI does not replace the service commitments we have contractually agreed to with a small number of customers. SPI is calculated for intermodal and manifest products. Intermodal SPI improved 2 points, at the same time international volume surged. Manifest SPI improved 4 points in 2024 compared to 2023.

Workforce Productivity – Workforce productivity is average daily car miles per employee. Workforce productivity improved 6% in 2024 as average daily car miles increased 2% and employees decreased 4% compared to 2023. Our active TE&Y workforce increased to support carload demand and increased crew needs associated with labor agreements that went into effect in the third quarter of 2023. In addition, we are maintaining an adequate training pipeline to provide a capacity buffer to enable responsiveness in an ever-changing demand and operating environment.

Operating Ratio – Operating ratio is our operating expenses reflected as a percentage of operating revenues. Our operating ratio of 59.9% improved 2.4 points compared to 2023 driven by productivity initiatives, core pricing gains, and the year-over-year impact from lower fuel prices, partially offset by inflation and other costs. In addition, operating ratio year-over-year comparison was positively impacted by 2024 contract settlements, a 2024 gain on the sale of intermodal equipment, and lower labor agreement ratification charges than in 2023.

Return on Average Common Shareholders’ Equity

Return on Invested Capital as Adjusted (ROIC)

ROIC is considered a non-GAAP financial measure by SEC Regulation G and Item 10 of SEC Regulation S-K and may not be defined and calculated by other companies in the same manner. We believe this measure is important to management and investors in evaluating the efficiency and effectiveness of our long-term capital investments. In addition, we currently use ROIC as a performance criterion in determining certain elements of equity compensation for our executives. ROIC should be considered in addition to, rather than as a substitute for, other information provided in accordance with GAAP. The most comparable GAAP measure is return on average common shareholders’ equity. The tables above provide a reconciliation from return on average common shareholders’ equity to ROIC. At December 31, 2024, 2023, and 2022, the incremental borrowing rate on operating leases was 3.8%, 3.6%, and 3.3%, respectively.

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Debt / Net Income

Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA

Adjusted debt (total debt plus operating lease liabilities plus after-tax unfunded pension and OPEB (other post-retirement benefit) obligations) to adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and adjustments for other income and interest on present value of operating leases) is considered a non-GAAP financial measure by SEC Regulation G and Item 10 of SEC Regulation S-K and may not be defined and calculated by other companies in the same manner. We believe this measure is important to management and investors in evaluating the Company’s ability to sustain given debt levels (including leases) with the cash generated from operations. In addition, a comparable measure is used by rating agencies when reviewing the Company’s credit rating. Adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA should be considered in addition to, rather than as a substitute for, other information provided in accordance with GAAP. The most comparable GAAP measure is debt to net income ratio. The tables above provide reconciliations from net income to adjusted EBITDA, debt to adjusted debt, and debt to net income to adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA. At December 31, 2024, 2023, and 2022, the incremental borrowing rate on operating leases was 3.8%, 3.6%, and 3.3%, respectively. Pension and OPEB were funded at December 31, 2024, 2023, and 2022.

LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

We are continually evaluating our financial condition and liquidity. We analyze a wide range of economic scenarios and the impact on our ability to generate cash. These analyses inform our liquidity plans and activities outlined below and indicate we have sufficient borrowing capacity to sustain an extended period of lower volumes.

At both December 31, 2024 and 2023, we had a working capital deficit due to upcoming debt maturities. It is not unusual for us to have a working capital deficit, and we believe it is not an indication of a lack of liquidity. We generate strong cash from operations and also maintain adequate resources, including our credit facility and, when necessary, access the capital markets to meet foreseeable cash requirements.

During 2024, we generated $9.3 billion of cash provided by operating activities, paid down $1.3 billion of long-term debt, paid $3.2 billion in dividends, and repurchased shares totaling $1.5 billion. We have been, and we expect to continue to be, in compliance with our debt covenants.

Our principal sources of liquidity include cash and cash equivalents, our Receivables Facility, our revolving credit facility, as well as the availability of commercial paper and other sources of financing through the capital markets. On December 31, 2024, we had $1.0 billion of cash and cash equivalents, $2.0 billion of committed credit available under our revolving credit facility, and up to $800 million undrawn on the Receivables Facility. As of December 31, 2024, none of the revolving credit

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facility was drawn, and we did not draw on our revolving credit facility at any time during 2024. Our access to the Receivables Facility may be reduced or restricted if our bond ratings fall to certain levels below investment grade. If our bond rating were to deteriorate, it could have an adverse impact on our liquidity. Access to commercial paper as well as other capital market financing is dependent on market conditions. Deterioration of our operating results or financial condition due to internal or external factors could negatively impact our ability to access capital markets as a source of liquidity. Access to liquidity through the capital markets is also dependent on our financial stability. We expect that we will continue to have access to liquidity through any or all the following sources or activities: (a) increasing the utilization of our Receivables Facility, (b) issuing commercial paper, (c) entering into bank loans, outside of our revolving credit facility, or (iv) issuing bonds or other debt securities to public or private investors based on our assessment of the current condition of the credit markets. The Company’s $2.0 billion revolving credit facility is intended to support the issuance of commercial paper by UPC and also serves as an additional source of liquidity to fund short-term needs. The Company currently does not intend to make any borrowings under this facility.

As described in the notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements and as referenced in the table below, we have contractual obligations that may affect our financial condition. Based on our assessment of the underlying provisions and circumstances of our contractual obligations, other than the risks that we and other similarly situated companies face with respect to the condition of the capital markets (as described in Item 1A of Part II of this report), as of the date of this filing, there is no known trend, demand, commitment, event, or uncertainty that is reasonably likely to occur that would have a material adverse effect on our consolidated results of operations, financial condition, or liquidity. In addition, our commercial obligations, financings, and commitments are customary transactions that are like those of other comparable corporations, particularly within the transportation industry.

The following table identifies material contractual obligations as of December 31, 2024:

[a]Excludes finance lease obligations of $109 million as well as unamortized discount and deferred issuance costs of ($1,693) million. Includes an interest component of $25,130 million.

[b]Purchase obligations include locomotive maintenance contracts; purchase commitments for ties, ballast, and rail; and agreements to purchase other goods and services.

[c]Includes leases for locomotives, freight cars, other equipment, and real estate. Includes an interest component of $130 million.

[d]Includes estimated other post-retirement, medical, and life insurance payments, and payments made under the unfunded pension plan for the next ten years.

[e]Represents total obligations, including interest component of $9 million.

Cash Flows

Operating Activities

Cash provided by operating activities increased in 2024 compared to 2023 due primarily to $384 million of payments in 2023 related to back wages for agreements reached with our labor unions and increased net income.

Cash flow conversion is defined as cash provided by operating activities less cash used in capital investments as a ratio of net income. Cash flow conversion rate is not considered a financial measure under GAAP by SEC Regulation G and Item 10 of SEC Regulation S-K and may not be defined and calculated by other companies in the same manner. We believe cash

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flow conversion rate is important to management and investors in evaluating our financial performance and measures our ability to generate cash without additional external financing. Cash flow conversion rate should be considered in addition to, rather than as a substitute for, cash provided by operating activities. The following table reconciles cash provided by operating activities (GAAP measure) to cash flow conversion rate (non-GAAP measure):

Investing Activities

Cash used in investing activities in 2024 decreased compared to 2023 primarily driven by less capital investments and higher proceeds from asset sales, including a sale of intermodal equipment. Roughly half of the year-over-year decrease in capital investments is attributable to the 2023 purchase of a small trucking and transload operator and related real estate assets.

The following table detail cash capital investments for the years ended December 31:

[a]Other includes bridges and tunnels, signals, other road assets, and road work equipment.

[b]Locomotives and freight cars include lease buyouts of $143 million, $57 million, and $70 million in 2024, 2023, and 2022, respectively.

[c]Weather-related damages for 2024, 2023, and 2022 are immaterial.

Capital Plan – In 2025, we expect our capital plan to be approximately $3.4 billion, consistent with 2024. We plan to continue to make investments to support our growth strategy, improve the safety, resiliency, and operational efficiency of the network, harden our infrastructure, and replace older assets, including modernization of our locomotive fleet and acquiring freight cars to support replacement and growth opportunities. In addition, the plan includes investments in growth-related projects to drive more carloads to the network and enhance productivity. This includes siding construction and extension projects, terminal investments supporting our manifest network, and invest in certain ramps to efficiently handle volumes from new and existing intermodal customers. The capital plan may be revised if business conditions warrant or if laws or regulations affect our ability to generate sufficient returns on these investments.

Financing Activities

Cash used in financing activities increased in 2024 compared to 2023 driven by an increase in share repurchases and a decrease in debt issued, partially offset by a decrease in the repayment of commercial paper.

See Note 14 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8, for a description of all our outstanding financing arrangements and significant new borrowings, and Note 18 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8, for a description of our share repurchase programs.

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OTHER MATTERS

Inflation – For capital-intensive companies, inflation significantly increases asset replacement costs for long-lived assets. As a result, assuming that we replace all operating assets at current price levels, depreciation charges (on an inflation-adjusted basis) would be substantially greater than historically reported amounts.

Sensitivity Analyses – The sensitivity analyses that follow illustrate the economic effect that hypothetical changes in interest and tax rates could have on our results of operations and financial condition. These hypothetical changes do not consider other factors that could impact actual results.

Interest Rates – At December 31, 2024, we did not have variable-rate debt.

Market risk for fixed-rate debt is estimated as the potential increase in fair value resulting from a hypothetical 1% decrease in interest rates as of December 31, 2024, and totals an increase of approximately $3.0 billion to the fair value of our debt at December 31, 2024. We estimated the fair values of our fixed-rate debt by considering the impact of the hypothetical interest rates on quoted market prices and current borrowing rates.

Tax Rates – Our deferred tax assets and liabilities are measured based on current tax law. Future tax legislation, such as a change in the federal corporate tax rate, could have a material impact on our financial condition, results of operations, or liquidity. For example, a future, permanent 1% increase in our federal income tax rate would increase our deferred tax liability by approximately $525 million. Similarly, a future, permanent 1% decrease in our federal income tax rate would decrease our deferred tax liability by approximately $525 million.

Accounting Pronouncements – See Note 3 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8.

Asserted and Unasserted Claims – See Note 17 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8.

Indemnities – See Note 17 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8.

Climate Change – Climate change could have an adverse impact on our operations and financial performance (see Risk Factors under Item 1A of this report). We utilize climate scenario analyses to better understand climate-related risks and opportunities the Company may face in the future under a range of potential scenarios. We continue to refine our approach to understand climate-related risks and are taking an iterative approach in our business planning processes as risk factors, solutions, and technology develop. However, we are unable to predict the likelihood, manner, severity, or ultimate financial impact of actual future incidents as climate scenario analysis considers a range of potential outcomes.

We continue to take steps and explore opportunities to reduce our operational impact on the environment, including improving our operational fluidity to increase fuel efficiency, modernizing locomotives for improved reliability and fuel consumption, using renewable fuels, and exploring and testing low- and zero-emissions propulsion technologies. These initiatives are aligned with our strategy of Safety, Service, and Operational Excellence leading to Growth. (See further discussion in "Sustainable Future" in the Operations section in Item 1 of this report.)

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES

Our Consolidated Financial Statements have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. The preparation of these financial statements requires estimation and judgment that affect the reported amounts of revenues, expenses, assets, and liabilities. We base our estimates on historical experience and on various other assumptions that we believe are reasonable under the circumstances. The results form the basis for making judgments about the carrying values of assets and liabilities that are not readily apparent from other sources. The following critical accounting estimates are a subset of our significant accounting policies described in Note 2 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8. These critical accounting estimates affect significant areas of our financial statements and involve judgment and estimates. If these estimates differ significantly from actual results, the impact on our Consolidated Financial Statements may be material.

Personal Injury – See Note 17 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8, and "We May Be Subject to Various Claims and Lawsuits That Could Result in Significant Expenditures" in the Risk Factors, Item 1A.

Our personal injury liability is subject to uncertainty due to unasserted claims, timing and outcome of claims, and evolving trends in litigation. There were no material changes to the assumptions used in the latest actuarial analysis.

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Our personal injury liability balance and claims activity was as follows:

Environmental Costs – See Note 17 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8; "We Are Subject to Significant Environmental Laws and Regulations" in the Risk Factors, Item 1A; and Environmental Matters in the Legal Proceedings, Item 3.

Our environmental liability is subject to several factors such as type of remediation, nature and volume of contaminate, number and financial viability of other potentially responsible parties, as well as uncertainty due to unknown alleged contamination, evolving trends in remediation techniques and final remedies, and changes in laws and regulations.

Our environmental liability balance and site activity was as follows:

Property and Depreciation – See Note 11 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8.

Assets purchased or constructed throughout the year are capitalized if they meet applicable minimum units of property.

Estimated service lives of depreciable railroad property may vary over time due to changes in physical use, technology, asset strategies, and other factors that will have an impact on the retirement profiles of our assets. We are not aware of any specific factors that are reasonably likely to significantly change the estimated service lives of our assets. Actual use and retirement of our assets may vary from our current estimates, which would impact the amount of depreciation expense recognized in future periods.

Changes in estimated useful lives of our assets due to the results of our depreciation studies could significantly impact future periods’ depreciation expense and have a material impact on our Consolidated Financial Statements. If the estimated useful lives of all depreciable assets were increased by one year, annual depreciation expense would decrease by approximately $73 million. If the estimated useful lives of all depreciable assets were decreased by one year, annual depreciation expense would increase by approximately $78 million. We are projecting an increase in our depreciation expense of approximately 3% to 4% in 2025 versus 2024. This is driven by an increase in our projected depreciable asset base.

Pension Plans – See Note 5 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8.

The critical assumptions used to measure pension obligations and expenses are the discount rates and expected rate of return on pension assets.

We evaluate our critical assumptions at least annually, and selected assumptions are based on the following factors:

•We measure the service cost and interest cost components of our net periodic pension benefit/cost by using individual spot rates matched with separate cash flows for each future year. Discount rates are based on a Mercer yield curve of high-quality corporate bonds (rated AA by a recognized rating agency).

•Expected return on plan assets is based on our asset allocation mix and our historical return, taking into consideration current and expected market conditions.

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The following tables present the key assumptions used to measure net periodic pension benefit/cost for 2025 and the estimated impact on 2025 net periodic pension benefit/cost relative to a change in those assumptions:

The following table presents the net periodic pension benefit/cost for the years ended December 31:

CAUTIONARY INFORMATION

Certain statements in this report, and statements in other reports or information filed or to be filed with the SEC (as well as information included in oral statements or other written statements made or to be made by us), are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These forward-looking statements and information include, without limitation, statements in the CEO’s letter preceding Part I; statements regarding planned capital expenditures under the caption “2025 Capital Plan” in Item 2 of Part I; and statements and information set forth under the captions “2025 Outlook”; “Liquidity and Capital Resources” in Item 7 of Part II regarding our capital plan, share repurchase programs, contractual obligations, "Pension Benefits", and "Other Matters" in this Item 7 of Part II. Forward-looking statements and information also include any other statements or information in this report (including information incorporated herein by reference) regarding: potential impacts of public health crises, including pandemics, epidemics, and the outbreak of other contagious disease, such as COVID; the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars and other geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and any impacts on our business operations, financial results, liquidity, and financial position, and on the world economy (including customers, employees, and supply chains), including as a result of fluctuations in volumes and carloadings; closing of customer manufacturing, distribution or production facilities; expectations as to operational or service improvements; expectations as to hiring challenges; availability of employees; expectations regarding the effectiveness of steps taken or to be taken to improve operations, service, infrastructure improvements, and transportation plan modifications (including those discussed in response to increased traffic); expectations as to cost savings, revenue growth, and earnings; the time by which goals, targets, aspirations, or objectives will be achieved; projections, predictions, expectations, estimates, or forecasts as to our business, financial, and operational results, future economic performance, and general economic conditions; proposed new products and services; estimates of costs relating to environmental remediation and restoration; estimates and expectations regarding tax matters; estimates and expectations regarding potential tariffs; expectations that claims, litigation, environmental costs, commitments, contingent liabilities, labor negotiations or agreements, cyber-attacks, or other matters will not have a material adverse effect on our consolidated results of operations, financial condition, or liquidity and any other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements may be identified by their use of forward-looking terminology, such as “believes,” “expects,” “may,” “should,” “would,” “will,” “intends,” “plans,” “estimates,” “anticipates,” “projects” and similar words, phrases, or expressions.

Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance, results, or outcomes, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance, results or outcomes will be achieved, if ever. Forward-looking statements and information are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statements and information. Forward-looking statements and information reflect the good faith consideration by management of currently available information, and may be based on underlying assumptions believed to be reasonable under the circumstances. However, such information and assumptions (and, therefore, such forward-looking statements and information) are or may be subject to variables or unknown or

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unforeseeable events or circumstances over which management has little or no influence or control, and many of these risks and uncertainties are currently amplified by and may continue to be amplified by, or in the future may be amplified by, among other things, macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions.

The Risk Factors in Item 1A of this report could affect our future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements or information. To the extent circumstances require or we deem it otherwise necessary, we will update or amend these risk factors in a Form 10-Q, Form 8-K, or subsequent Form 10-K. All forward-looking statements are qualified by, and should be read in conjunction with, these Risk Factors.

Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date the statement was made. We assume no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions, or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If we do update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that we will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements.

Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

The following discussion should be read in conjunction with the Consolidated Financial Statements and applicable notes to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8, and other information in this report, including Risk Factors set forth in Item 1A and Critical Accounting Estimates and Cautionary Information at the end of this Item 7. The following section generally discusses 2023 and 2022 items and year-to-year comparisons between 2023 and 2022. Discussions of 2021 items and year-to-year comparisons between 2022 and 2021 that are not included in this Form 10-K can be found in “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Part II, Item 7, of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022.

The Railroad, along with its subsidiaries and rail affiliates, is our one reportable operating segment. Although we provide and analyze revenues by commodity group, we treat the financial results of the Railroad as one segment due to the integrated nature of our rail network.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2023 Results

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Free cash flow is defined as cash provided by operating activities less cash used in investing activities and dividends paid. Free cash flow is not considered a financial measure under GAAP by SEC Regulation G and Item 10 of SEC Regulation S-K and may not be defined and calculated by other companies in the same manner. We believe free cash flow is important to management and investors in evaluating our financial performance and measures our ability to generate cash without additional external financing. Free cash flow should be considered in addition to, rather than as a substitute for, cash provided by operating activities. The following table reconciles cash provided by operating activities (GAAP measure) to free cash flow (non-GAAP measure):

2024 Outlook

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RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

Operating Revenues

We generate freight revenues by transporting products from our three commodity groups. Freight revenues vary with volume (carloads) and average revenue per car (ARC). Changes in price, traffic mix, and fuel surcharges drive ARC. Customer incentives, which are primarily provided for shipping to/from specific locations or based on cumulative volumes, are recorded as a reduction to operating revenues. Customer incentives that include variable consideration based on cumulative volumes are estimated using the expected value method, which is based on available historical, current, and forecasted volumes, and recognized as the related performance obligation is satisfied. We recognize freight revenues over time as shipments move from origin to destination. The allocation of revenues between reporting periods is based on the relative transit time in each reporting period with expenses recognized as incurred.

Other subsidiary revenues (primarily logistics and commuter rail operations) are generally recognized over time as shipments move from origin to destination. The allocation of revenues between reporting periods is based on the relative transit time in each reporting period with expenses recognized as incurred. Accessorial revenues are recognized at a point in time as performance obligations are satisfied.

Freight revenues decreased 3% year-over-year to $22.6 billion driven by lower fuel surcharge revenues, negative mix of traffic (decreased lumber shipments and increased short haul rock shipments), and a 1% decrease in volume, partially offset by core pricing gains. Volume decreases were primarily driven by weaker demand for intermodal and coal shipments. These declines were partially offset by a domestic intermodal contract win, increased production and inventory replenishment in the automotive industry, growth in petroleum and LPG shipments, and strength in rock shipments.

Our fuel surcharge programs generated freight revenues of $3.0 billion and $3.7 billion in 2023 and 2022, respectively. Fuel surcharge revenues in 2023 decreased $0.7 billion due to a 15% decrease in fuel prices and lower volume, partially offset by the impact of fluctuating fuel prices (it can generally take up to two months for changing fuel prices to affect fuel surcharge recoveries).

In 2023, other subsidiary revenues decreased compared to 2022 primarily driven by weaker demand for intermodal shipments at our Loup subsidiary. Accessorial revenues decreased in 2023 compared to 2022 driven by decreased intermodal accessorial and container revenues due to lower volume and improvements in the global supply chain as reflected in better equipment cycle times. Other revenues increased year-over-year.

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The following tables summarize the year-over-year changes in freight revenues, revenue carloads, and ARC by commodity type:

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Mexico Business – Each of our commodity groups includes revenues from shipments to and from Mexico. Revenues from Mexico shipments were $2.8 billion in 2023, up 2% compared to 2022, driven by a 4% volume increase, partially offset by a 2% decrease in average revenue per car due to lower fuel surcharge revenues. The volume increase was driven by higher intermodal and automotive shipments, partially offset by fewer beer shipments. The closure of the Eagle Pass and El Paso border crossings in the fourth quarter had a slightly negative impact on the overall results.

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Operating Expenses

Compensation and Benefits – Compensation and benefits include wages, payroll taxes, health and welfare costs, pension costs, and incentive costs. In 2023, expenses increased 4% compared to 2022. The employee level increase of 3% includes a 4% increase in train, engine, and yard employees to backfill attrition, cover absences resulting from recent negotiated sick leave benefits, and add employees in areas of critical need to address operational challenges and support our service product. The wage growth, costs for training, and the ratification charge for a crew staffing agreement reached in the second quarter of 2023, partially offset by the 2022 one-time charge for agreements reached with our labor unions, lower incentive compensation, and lower volume drove the increase in compensation and benefits for 2023 compared to 2022.

Fuel – Fuel includes locomotive fuel and gasoline for highway and non-highway vehicles and heavy equipment. Fuel expense decreased compared to 2022 due to a decrease in locomotive diesel fuel prices, which averaged $3.09 per gallon (including taxes and transportation costs) in 2023 compared to $3.65 per gallon in 2022, resulting in a $0.5 billion decrease in expense (excluding any impact from decreased volume year-over-year), and a 1% decrease in gross ton-miles, partially offset by a 1% deterioration to the fuel consumption rate in 2023 (computed as gallons of fuel consumed divided by gross ton-miles).

Purchased Services and Materials – Expense for purchased services and materials includes the costs of services purchased from outside contractors and other service providers (including equipment maintenance and contract expenses incurred by our subsidiaries for external transportation services); materials used to maintain the Railroad’s lines, structures, and equipment; costs of operating facilities jointly used by UPRR and other railroads; transportation and lodging for train crew employees; trucking and contracting costs for intermodal containers; leased automobile maintenance expenses; and tools and supplies. Purchased services and materials increased 7% in 2023 compared to 2022 driven by higher locomotive maintenance expenses due to inflation, increased locomotive overhauls, and a larger active fleet in the first half of 2023 to assist in recovering the network, partially offset by decreased volume-related drayage costs incurred at one of our subsidiaries.

Depreciation – The majority of depreciation relates to road property, including rail, ties, ballast, and other track material. Depreciation expense was up 3% in 2023 compared to 2022 due to a higher depreciable asset base.

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Equipment and Other Rents – Equipment and other rents expense primarily includes rental expense that the Railroad pays for freight cars owned by other railroads or private companies; freight car, intermodal, and locomotive leases; and office and other rent expenses, offset by equity income from certain equity method investments. Equipment and other rents expense increased 5% compared to 2022 due to lower equity income and inflation, partially offset by greater network fluidity and lower volume.

Other – Other expenses include state and local taxes; freight, equipment, and property damage; utilities; insurance; personal injury; environmental; employee travel; telephone and cellular; computer software; bad debt; and other general expenses. Other expenses increased 12% in 2023 compared to 2022 driven by casualty expenses, including higher personal injury expense, environmental remediation, and damaged freight, and one-time write-offs.

Non-Operating Items

Other Income, net – Other income increased in 2023 compared to 2022 driven by a one-time $107 million real estate transaction, partially offset by lower gains from real estate sales. Real estate sales in 2022 included a $79 million gain from a land sale to the Illinois State Toll Highway Authority and a $35 million gain from a land sale to the Colorado Department of Transportation. See Note 6 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8, for additional detail.

Interest Expense – Interest expense increased in 2023 compared to 2022 due to an increased weighted-average debt level of $33.2 billion in 2023 from $32.1 billion in 2022. The effective interest rate was 4.0% in both periods.

Income Tax Expense – Income tax expense decreased in 2023 compared to 2022 due to lower pre-tax income and deferred tax expense reductions. In 2023, the states of Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, and Arkansas enacted legislation to reduce their corporate income tax rates for future years resulting in a $114 million reduction of our deferred tax expense. 2022 income tax expense included reductions of $95 million in deferred tax expense from Nebraska, Iowa, Arkansas, and Idaho reducing their corporate income tax rates. Our effective tax rates for 2023 and 2022 were 22.5% and 22.9%, respectively.

OTHER OPERATING/PERFORMANCE AND FINANCIAL STATISTICS

We report a number of key performance measures weekly to the STB. We provide this data on our website at www.up.com/investor/aar-stb_reports/index.htm.

Operating/Performance Statistics

Management continuously monitors these key operating metrics to evaluate our operational efficiency and help us deliver the service product we sold to our customers.

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Railroad performance measures are included in the table below:

Gross and Revenue Ton-Miles – Gross ton-miles are calculated by multiplying the weight of loaded and empty freight cars by the number of miles hauled. Revenue ton-miles are calculated by multiplying the weight of freight by the number of tariff miles. In 2023, gross ton-miles and revenue ton-miles decreased 1% and 2%, respectively, compared to 2022, driven by a 1% decrease in carloadings. Changes in commodity mix drove the variance in year-over-year decreases between gross ton-miles, revenue ton-miles, and carloads.

Freight Car Velocity – Freight car velocity measures the average daily miles per car on our network. The two key drivers of this metric are the speed of the train between terminals (average train speed) and the time a rail car spends at the terminals (average terminal dwell time). Freight car velocity, average train speed, and average terminal dwell improved compared to 2022 as last year we experienced congestion across our system. These metrics were negatively impacted by operational challenges caused by weather in the first quarter of 2023 and train crew shortages in some locations in the first half of the year, but as network fluidity improved throughout 2023, freight car velocity increased sequentially.

Locomotive Productivity – Locomotive productivity is gross ton-miles per average daily locomotive horsepower. Locomotive productivity improved 3% in 2023 compared to 2022 driven by improved network fluidity in the second half of 2023. As a result of the improved fluidity, we stored locomotives in the second half of the year, reducing our active fleet size 11% since the end of the second quarter of 2023. These improvements more than offset increased average active fleet size in the first half of 2023 as resources were deployed to alleviate operational challenges and weather disruptions.

Train Length – Train length is the average maximum train length on a route measured in feet. Our train length increased slightly compared to 2022 as initiative to drive train length improvements in the second half of the year more than offset the declines in intermodal shipments, which generally move on longer trains.

Car Trip Plan Compliance – Car trip plan compliance is the percentage of cars delivered on time in accordance with our original trip plan. Our network trip plan compliance is broken into the intermodal and manifest/automotive products. Intermodal car trip plan compliance and manifest/automotive car trip plan compliance improved in 2023 compared to 2022 driven by improved network fluidity, as evidenced by faster freight car velocity.

Workforce Productivity – Workforce productivity is average daily car miles per employee. Workforce productivity declined 3% in 2023 as average daily car miles decreased slightly and employees increased compared to 2022. The 3% increase in employee levels was driven by an increase in craft professionals as we aggressively hired train, engine, and yard employees to backfill attrition, cover absences resulting from recently negotiated sick leave benefits, and add employees in areas of critical need to address operational challenges and support our service product.

Operating Ratio – Operating ratio is our operating expenses reflected as a percentage of operating revenues. Our operating ratio of 62.3% deteriorated 2.2 points compared to 2022 driven by inflation, excess network costs, the ratification charge for a crew staffing agreement reached in the second quarter of 2023, increased casualty costs, and other cost increases, partially offset by core pricing gains, the 2022 one-time charge for the labor agreements reached with our labor unions, and the year-over-year lag impact from lower fuel prices.

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Return on Average Common Shareholders’ Equity

Return on Invested Capital as Adjusted (ROIC)