UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP) FY 2022 MD&A
This page reproduces the company's own Item 7 MD&A text from the linked SEC filing. It is filer text, not grepcent analysis, scoring, or investment advice.
Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with the Consolidated Financial Statements and applicable notes to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8, and other information in this report, including Risk Factors set forth in Item 1A and Critical Accounting Estimates and Cautionary Information at the end of this Item 7. The following section generally discusses 2022 and 2021 items and year-to-year comparisons between 2022 and 2021. Discussions of 2020 items and year-to-year comparisons between 2021 and 2020 that are not included in this Form 10-K can be found in “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Part II, Item 7, of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2021.
The Railroad, along with its subsidiaries and rail affiliates, is our one reportable business segment. Although revenues are analyzed by commodity, we analyze the net financial results of the Railroad as one segment due to the integrated nature of the rail network.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2022 Results
| Column 1 | Column 2 |
|---|---|
| ● | Safety – Union Pacific is dedicated to maintaining a safe and healthy workplace. Throughout 2022, we continued to use our Total Safety Culture, Courage to Care, COMMIT (Coaching, Observing, Mentoring, and Motivating with Integrity and Trust), and Peer to Peer programs throughout our operations to enhance employee safety and engagement. In addition, based on the evaluation of a third-party expert on the effectiveness of these programs completed in 2021, we are implementing engagement improvements to enhance our safety culture. These initiatives include defining and setting standards for employee interactions, corrective actions and follow up, and root cause analysis. As a result of these efforts, our reportable personal injury incidents rate per 200,000 employee-hours of 0.80 decreased 18% from 2021. We also continued to adapt to the evolving environment due to COVID and other illnesses. Safety procedures and policies are refined based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines. |
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| Column 1 | Column 2 |
|---|---|
| We continued to refine our proprietary software to evaluate train and route characteristics to enable proactive intervention by our Operating Practices Command Center to prevent derailments. In addition, we increased the replacement of freight car wheels and took steps to address human factor yard derailments related to switch alignment. Despite these efforts, our reportable derailment incident rate per million train miles increased 8% year-over-year. |
| Column 1 | Column 2 |
|---|---|
| ● | Network Operations – Throughout 2022, our network was congested in several key corridors, which hindered our ability to handle all of the demand in several markets. To address this congestion, we aggressively hired and graduated 1,302 new train, engine, and yard employees; temporarily relocated train, engine, and yard employees to areas with the greatest need; added locomotives to the fleet in select locations; and reduced freight car inventory, relative to carloads, from our network. Due to this congestion, our operating metrics deteriorated year-over-year. Freight car velocity decreased due to increased terminal dwell and higher operating car inventory levels, which drove lower train speeds. Additional details on these metrics are discussed in Other Operating/Performance and Financial Statistics of this Item 7. |
| Column 1 | Column 2 |
|---|---|
| ● | Freight Revenues – Freight revenues increased 14% year-over-year to $23.2 billion driven by higher fuel surcharge revenues, core pricing gains, and a 2% increase in volume. Volume increases were driven by strong production and inventory replenishment in the automotive industry, increased demand for coal due to higher natural gas prices, and continued strength in the industrial markets driven by rock, sand, and plastics. These gains were partially offset by declines in international intermodal, parcel, grain, and petroleum products. |
| Column 1 | Column 2 |
|---|---|
| ● | Financial Results – Higher fuel prices, operational challenges, inflation, increased volume-related costs, and a one-time charge for the labor agreements reached with our labor unions (See Labor Agreements in Other Matters in this Item 7 of Part II), drove a 20% increase in operating expenses. Partially offsetting these increases were lower weather-related expenses in 2022 compared to 2021, when we incurred additional costs associated with Winter Storm Uri and wildfires in California. Increased revenues, due to higher fuel surcharge revenues, improved pricing, additional volume, and intermodal accessorial charges, more than offset the increased expenses producing operating income of $9.9 billion, a 6% increase over 2021. Our operating ratio was 60.1%, deteriorating 2.9 points from 2021. Net income of $7.0 billion translated into earnings of $11.21 per diluted share, up 13% from 2021. |
| Column 1 | Column 2 |
|---|---|
| ● | Fuel Prices – The onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in late February 2022 drove crude oil prices above $100 a barrel, where it remained elevated until mid-2022, driving an increase in our average fuel price. While our average fuel price declined 8% in the fourth quarter from the second quarter high of $4.03, our average price in the fourth quarter was 46% higher than the fourth quarter of 2021. Our average price of diesel fuel for the full year of 2022 was $3.65 per gallon, an increase of 64% from 2021. The higher price resulted in increased operating expenses of $1.3 billion (excluding any impact from year-over-year volume increases). Gross ton-miles increased 3%, which also drove higher fuel expense. Partially offsetting these increases was a 1% improvement in our fuel consumption rate to a new full year record low. |
| Column 1 | Column 2 |
|---|---|
| ● | Liquidity – We are continually evaluating our financial condition and liquidity. On December 31, 2022, we had $973 million of cash and cash equivalents. Despite the challenging year, we generated $9.4 billion of cash provided by operating activities, yielding free cash flow of $2.7 billion after reductions of $3.5 billion for cash used in investing activities and $3.2 billion in dividends. We repurchased $6.3 billion of our shares. We have been, and we expect to continue to be, in compliance with our debt covenants. We have $2.0 billion of credit available under our revolving credit facility and up to $700 million undrawn on our Receivables Facility. As of December 31, 2022, none of the revolving credit facility was drawn. Additional details are discussed in Liquidity and Capital Resources of this Item 7. |
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Free cash flow is defined as cash provided by operating activities less cash used in investing activities and dividends paid. Free cash flow is not considered a financial measure under GAAP by SEC Regulation G and Item 10 of SEC Regulation S-K and may not be defined and calculated by other companies in the same manner. We believe free cash flow is important to management and investors in evaluating our financial performance and measures our ability to generate cash without additional external financing. Free cash flow should be considered in addition to, rather than as a substitute for, cash provided by operating activities. The following table reconciles cash provided by operating activities (GAAP measure) to free cash flow (non-GAAP measure):
| Millions | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash provided by operating activities | $ | 9,362 | $ | 9,032 | $ | 8,540 | ||||||
| Cash used in investing activities | (3,471 | ) | (2,709 | ) | (2,676 | ) | ||||||
| Dividends paid | (3,159 | ) | (2,800 | ) | (2,626 | ) | ||||||
| Free cash flow | $ | 2,732 | $ | 3,523 | $ | 3,238 |
2023 Outlook
| Column 1 | Column 2 |
|---|---|
| ● | Safety – Operating a safe railroad benefits all our constituents: employees, customers, shareholders, and the communities we serve. We will continue using a comprehensive safety management system approach utilizing technology, hazard identification and risk assessments, employee engagement, training, quality control, and targeted capital investments. We will continually evaluate and adjust deployment of Total Safety Culture, Courage to Care, COMMIT, and Peer to Peer resources throughout our operations, which allows us to identify and implement best practices for employee and operational safety. In addition, our Operating Practices Command Center will continue the implementation of predictive technology to reduce variability by seeking to identify causes of mainline service interruptions and develop solutions, in addition to assisting employees with understanding best practices for handling trains. We will continue our efforts to utilize data to identify and mitigate exposure to risk, detect rail defects, improve or close crossings, and educate the public and law enforcement agencies about crossing safety through a combination of our own programs (including risk assessment strategies), industry programs, and local community activities across the network. We also are dedicated to maintaining a healthy workplace and continue monitoring the COVID case levels, modifying our policies as needed to protect employees and minimize the risk of workplace transmission. |
| Column 1 | Column 2 |
|---|---|
| ● | Network Operations – In 2023, we strive to increase reliability of our service product, reduce variability in network operations, and improve resource availability, including actively hiring additional train, engine, and yard employees. Further train length initiatives allow us to efficiently add incremental volume growth to our existing train network. We will continue to make capital investments targeted to improve operational performance, handle more volume, and increase efficiency, requiring fewer locomotives, freight cars, and other critical resources. |
| Column 1 | Column 2 |
|---|---|
| ● | Financial Expectations – We expect volume to outpace industrial production growth in 2023 due to our business development efforts bringing new customers to our railroad. In the current environment, we expect continued operating ratio improvement driven by pricing in excess of inflation, improving our service product, and better leveraging our resources. We expect to generate strong cash flow from operating activities allowing us to continue our industry leading dividend payout ratio and commit excess cash to our share repurchase programs. Macroeconomic uncertainties remain in 2023 that could have a material impact on our 2023 financial and operating results. Regardless of external factors, we will focus on providing our customers consistent and reliable service; efficiently managing operations; seeking new business opportunities; and protecting our employees, customers, and communities. |
| Column 1 | Column 2 |
|---|---|
| ● | Market Conditions – Current forecasts for industrial production indicate negative growth in 2023. The macroeconomic uncertainty, high inflationary environment, and disruptions in supply chains will continue to impact our shipments. In addition, other factors, such as changes in domestic and foreign monetary policy (including rising interest rates), may affect economic activity and demand for rail transportation; natural gas prices, weather conditions, and demand for other energy sources may impact the coal market; crude oil prices and spreads may drive demand for petroleum products and drilling materials; available truck capacity could impact our intermodal business; and international trade agreements could promote or hinder trade. |
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| Column 1 | Column 2 |
|---|---|
| ● | Fuel Prices – Projections for crude oil and natural gas continue to fluctuate in the current economic environment. We could again see volatile fuel prices during 2023, as they are sensitive to global and U.S. domestic demand, refining capacity, geopolitical events, weather conditions, and other factors. As prices fluctuate, there will be a timing impact on earnings, as our fuel surcharge programs trail increases or decreases in fuel price by approximately two months. Significant changes in fuel prices could have an impact on consumer discretionary spending, impacting demand for various consumer products we transport. Alternatively, those changes could have an inverse impact on commodities such as coal, petroleum products, and domestic drilling-related shipments. Increased diesel fuel prices also impact our competitive position versus trucks. As prices rise, the demand for more fuel-efficient rail transportation also rises, but at a slower rate. |
| Column 1 | Column 2 |
|---|---|
| ● | Capital Plan – In 2023, we expect our capital plan to be approximately $3.6 billion, up 6% from 2022 as we make investments to support our growth strategy. We will continue to harden our infrastructure, replace older assets, and improve the safety and resilience of the network. In addition, the plan includes investments in growth-related projects to drive more carloads to the network, certain ramps to efficiently handle volumes from new and existing intermodal customers, continuous modernization of our locomotive fleet, and projects intended to improve operational efficiency. The capital plan may be revised if business conditions warrant or if new laws or regulations affect our ability to generate sufficient returns on these investments. (See further discussion in this Item 7 under Liquidity and Capital Resources – Capital Plan.) |
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
Operating Revenues
| % Change | % Change | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millions | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2022 v 2021 | 2021 v 2020 | |||||||||||||||
| Freight revenues | $ | 23,159 | $ | 20,244 | $ | 18,251 | 14 | % | 11 | % | ||||||||||
| Other subsidiary revenues | 884 | 741 | 743 | 19 | - | |||||||||||||||
| Accessorial revenues | 779 | 752 | 473 | 4 | 59 | |||||||||||||||
| Other | 53 | 67 | 66 | (21 | ) | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 24,875 | $ | 21,804 | $ | 19,533 | 14 | % | 12 | % |
We generate freight revenues by transporting products from our three commodity groups. Freight revenues vary with volume (carloads) and average revenue per car (ARC). Changes in price, traffic mix, and fuel surcharges drive ARC. Customer incentives, which are primarily provided for shipping to/from specific locations or based on cumulative volumes, are recorded as a reduction to operating revenues. Customer incentives that include variable consideration based on cumulative volumes are estimated using the expected value method, which is based on available historical, current, and forecasted volumes, and recognized as the related performance obligation is satisfied. We recognize freight revenues over time as shipments move from origin to destination. The allocation of revenues between reporting periods is based on the relative transit time in each reporting period with expenses recognized as incurred.
Other subsidiary revenues (primarily logistics and commuter rail operations) are generally recognized over time as shipments move from origin to destination. The allocation of revenues between reporting periods is based on the relative transit time in each reporting period with expenses recognized as incurred. Accessorial revenues are recognized at a point in time as performance obligations are satisfied.
Freight revenues increased 14% year-over-year to $23.2 billion driven by higher fuel surcharge revenues, core pricing gains, and a 2% increase in volume. Volume increases were driven by strong production and inventory replenishment in the automotive industry, increased demand for coal due to higher natural gas prices, and continued strength in the industrial markets driven by rock, sand, and plastics. These gains were partially offset by declines in international intermodal, parcel, grain, and petroleum products.
Our fuel surcharge programs generated freight revenues of $3.7 billion and $1.7 billion in 2022 and 2021, respectively. Fuel surcharge revenues in 2022 increased $2.0 billion because of a 64% increase in fuel price and a 2% increase in carloadings.
In 2022, other subsidiary revenues increased compared to 2021 primarily driven by higher fuel surcharge and an increase in automotive parts shipments due to market demand and contract wins at our Loup subsidiary. Accessorial revenues increased in 2022 compared to 2021 driven by increased intermodal accessorial charges tied to global supply chain disruptions. Other revenues decreased year-over-year.
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The following tables summarize the year-over-year changes in freight revenues, revenue carloads, and ARC by commodity type:
| Freight Revenues | % Change | % Change | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millions | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2022 v 2021 | 2021 v 2020 | |||||||||||||||
| Grain & grain products | $ | 3,598 | $ | 3,181 | $ | 2,829 | 13 | % | 12 | % | ||||||||||
| Fertilizer | 712 | 697 | 660 | 2 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
| Food & refrigerated | 1,093 | 998 | 937 | 10 | 7 | |||||||||||||||
| Coal & renewables | 2,134 | 1,780 | 1,534 | 20 | 16 | |||||||||||||||
| Bulk | 7,537 | 6,656 | 5,960 | 13 | 12 | |||||||||||||||
| Industrial chemicals & plastics | 2,158 | 1,943 | 1,845 | 11 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
| Metals & minerals | 2,196 | 1,811 | 1,580 | 21 | 15 | |||||||||||||||
| Forest products | 1,465 | 1,357 | 1,160 | 8 | 17 | |||||||||||||||
| Energy & specialized markets | 2,386 | 2,212 | 2,037 | 8 | 9 | |||||||||||||||
| Industrial | 8,205 | 7,323 | 6,622 | 12 | 11 | |||||||||||||||
| Automotive | 2,257 | 1,761 | 1,680 | 28 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
| Intermodal | 5,160 | 4,504 | 3,989 | 15 | 13 | |||||||||||||||
| Premium | 7,417 | 6,265 | 5,669 | 18 | 11 | |||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 23,159 | $ | 20,244 | $ | 18,251 | 14 | % | 11 | % |
| Revenue Carloads | % Change | % Change | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thousands | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2022 v 2021 | 2021 v 2020 | |||||||||||||||
| Grain & grain products | 798 | 805 | 745 | (1 | )% | 8 | % | |||||||||||||
| Fertilizer | 190 | 201 | 193 | (5 | ) | 4 | ||||||||||||||
| Food & refrigerated | 187 | 189 | 185 | (1 | ) | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| Coal & renewables | 885 | 819 | 797 | 8 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
| Bulk | 2,060 | 2,014 | 1,920 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
| Industrial chemicals & plastics | 637 | 606 | 587 | 5 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
| Metals & minerals | 785 | 697 | 646 | 13 | 8 | |||||||||||||||
| Forest products | 241 | 250 | 220 | (4 | ) | 14 | ||||||||||||||
| Energy & specialized markets | 552 | 559 | 539 | (1 | ) | 4 | ||||||||||||||
| Industrial | 2,215 | 2,112 | 1,992 | 5 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
| Automotive | 778 | 701 | 692 | 11 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Intermodal [a] | 3,116 | 3,211 | 3,149 | (3 | ) | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| Premium | 3,894 | 3,912 | 3,841 | - | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| Total | 8,169 | 8,038 | 7,753 | 2 | % | 4 | % |
| % Change | % Change | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Revenue per Car | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2022 v 2021 | 2021 v 2020 | |||||||||||||||
| Grain & grain products | $ | 4,509 | $ | 3,953 | $ | 3,797 | 14 | % | 4 | % | ||||||||||
| Fertilizer | 3,749 | 3,470 | 3,427 | 8 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Food & refrigerated | 5,844 | 5,279 | 5,047 | 11 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
| Coal & renewables | 2,410 | 2,173 | 1,926 | 11 | 13 | |||||||||||||||
| Bulk | 3,658 | 3,305 | 3,104 | 11 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
| Industrial chemicals & plastics | 3,388 | 3,207 | 3,144 | 6 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| Metals & minerals | 2,797 | 2,598 | 2,445 | 8 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
| Forest products | 6,092 | 5,424 | 5,269 | 12 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
| Energy & specialized markets | 4,320 | 3,956 | 3,780 | 9 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
| Industrial | 3,704 | 3,467 | 3,324 | 7 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
| Automotive | 2,902 | 2,511 | 2,427 | 16 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
| Intermodal [a] | 1,656 | 1,403 | 1,267 | 18 | 11 | |||||||||||||||
| Premium | 1,905 | 1,601 | 1,476 | 19 | 8 | |||||||||||||||
| Average | $ | 2,835 | $ | 2,519 | $ | 2,354 | 13 | % | 7 | % |
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| [a] | For intermodal shipments, each container or trailer equals one carload. |
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| Bulk – Bulk includes shipments of grain and grain products, fertilizer, food and refrigerated, and coal and renewables. Freight revenues from bulk shipments increased in 2022 compared to 2021 due to higher fuel surcharge revenues, core pricing gains, and volume increases, partially offset by negative mix from increased coal shipments and decreased grain shipments. Volume grew 2% compared to 2021 driven by increases in coal and renewable shipments due to higher natural gas prices and contract wins, partially offset by declines in grain and grain products shipments as network constraints increased shuttle cycle times for our grain traffic. | 2022 Bulk Carloads |
|---|---|
| Industrial – Industrial includes shipments of industrial chemicals and plastics, metals and minerals, forest products, and energy and specialized markets. Freight revenues from industrial shipments increased in 2022 versus 2021 due to higher fuel surcharge revenues, volume increases, and core pricing gains, partially offset by negative mix of traffic from increased short haul rock shipments and decreased petroleum. Volume increased 5% compared to 2021. The growth was driven by metals and minerals due to strong demand for sand and rock as well as new business wins, expansions, and market demand for industrial chemicals and plastics. Many of our customers in the Gulf Coast experienced Winter Storm Uri disruptions for an extended period causing a significant impact on industrial chemicals and plastics and metals and minerals industries in the first quarter of 2021. The 2021 weather events coupled with strong demand in 2022 drove the year-over-year increase for the impacted commodities. Partially offsetting some of the growth was a decline in petroleum shipments, within the energy and specialized markets commodity line, primarily due to regulatory challenges in Mexico markets. | 2022 Industrial Carloads |
| Premium – Premium includes shipments of finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers, both domestic and international. Freight revenues from premium shipments increased driven by higher fuel surcharges, core pricing gains, and positive mix of traffic, partially offset by a slight decline in volume. Automotive shipments increased 11% compared to 2021 driven by an increase in finished vehicle shipments and automotive parts as the automotive industry continued to recover from the shortage of semiconductors and the 2021 weather disruptions in the first quarter. Premium volume was flat compared to 2021 as the increased automotive shipments, domestic intermodal contract wins, and market strength due to tight truck capacity earlier in the year were more than offset by ongoing international supply chain disruptions and the soft market demand in the fourth quarter for domestic and parcel shipments. | 2022 Premium Carloads |
Mexico Business – Each of our commodity groups includes revenues from shipments to and from Mexico. Revenues from Mexico business were $2.7 billion in 2022, up 14% compared to 2021, driven by higher fuel surcharge revenues, core pricing gains, and positive mix of traffic, partially offset by a 1% decline in volume. The volume decrease was driven by lower intermodal and petroleum shipments, partially offset by increases in automotive parts and steel shipments.
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Operating Expenses
| % Change | % Change | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millions | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2022 v 2021 | 2021 v 2020 | |||||||||||||||
| Compensation and benefits | $ | 4,645 | $ | 4,158 | $ | 3,993 | 12 | % | 4 | % | ||||||||||
| Fuel | 3,439 | 2,049 | 1,314 | 68 | 56 | |||||||||||||||
| Purchased services and materials | 2,442 | 2,016 | 1,962 | 21 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2,246 | 2,208 | 2,210 | 2 | - | |||||||||||||||
| Equipment and other rents | 898 | 859 | 875 | 5 | (2 | ) | ||||||||||||||
| Other | 1,288 | 1,176 | 1,345 | 10 | (13 | ) | ||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 14,958 | $ | 12,466 | $ | 11,699 | 20 | % | 7 | % |
| Column 1 | Column 2 |
|---|---|
| Operating expenses increased $2.5 billion, or 20%, in 2022 compared to 2021 driven by higher fuel prices, operational inefficiencies, inflation, increased volume-related costs, and a one-time charge for the labor agreements reached with our labor unions (See Labor Agreements in Other Matters in this Item 7 of Part II). Partially offsetting these increases were lower weather-related expenses in 2022 compared to 2021, which included costs associated with Winter Storm Uri and wildfires in California. | 2022 Operating Expenses |
Compensation and Benefits – Compensation and benefits include wages, payroll taxes, health and welfare costs, pension costs, and incentive costs. In 2022, expenses increased 12% compared to 2021, due to wage inflation, increased employee levels to address congestion across the system and increased carload volumes, and a one-time charge for the labor agreements reached with our labor unions (See Labor Agreements in Other Matters in this Item 7 of Part II). The year-over-year comparison was positively impacted by the 2021 weather-related expenses.
Fuel – Fuel includes locomotive fuel and gasoline for highway and non-highway vehicles and heavy equipment. Locomotive diesel fuel prices, which averaged $3.65 per gallon (including taxes and transportation costs) in 2022, compared to $2.23 per gallon in 2021, increased expenses $1.3 billion (excluding any impact from increased volume year-over-year). Gross ton-miles increased 3% driving higher fuel expense. Partially offsetting this increase was a 1% improvement to a record low fuel consumption rate in 2022, computed as gallons of fuel consumed divided by gross ton-miles.
Purchased Services and Materials – Expense for purchased services and materials includes the costs of services purchased from outside contractors and other service providers (including equipment maintenance and contract expenses incurred by our subsidiaries for external transportation services); materials used to maintain the Railroad’s lines, structures, and equipment; costs of operating facilities jointly used by UPRR and other railroads; transportation and lodging for train crew employees; trucking and contracting costs for intermodal containers; leased automobile maintenance expenses; and tools and supplies. Purchased services and materials increased 21% in 2022 compared to 2021 driven by higher locomotive maintenance expenses due to a larger active fleet to assist in recovering the network, inflation, increased drayage costs incurred by our Loup subsidiary, and volume-related costs. The year-over-year comparison was positively impacted by the 2021 weather-related expenses.
Depreciation – The majority of depreciation relates to road property, including rail, ties, ballast, and other track material. Depreciation expense was up 2% in 2022 compared to 2021.
Equipment and Other Rents – Equipment and other rents expense primarily includes rental expense that the Railroad pays for freight cars owned by other railroads or private companies; freight car, intermodal, and locomotive leases; and office and other rent expenses, offset by equity income from certain equity method investments. Equipment and other rents expense increased 5% compared to 2021 due to higher volume and network congestion. Higher equity income partially offset some of these increases.
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Other – Other expenses include state and local taxes; freight, equipment, and property damage; utilities; insurance; personal injury; environmental; employee travel; telephone and cellular; computer software; bad debt; and other general expenses. Other expenses increased 10% in 2022 compared to 2021 driven by casualty expenses, including higher personal injury expense and damaged freight; increased business travel costs; and higher state and local taxes, partially offset by higher equity income.
Non-Operating Items
| % Change | % Change | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millions | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2022 v 2021 | 2021 v 2020 | |||||||||||||||
| Other income, net | $ | 426 | $ | 297 | $ | 287 | 43 | % | 3 | % | ||||||||||
| Interest expense | (1,271 | ) | (1,157 | ) | (1,141 | ) | 10 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Income tax expense | (2,074 | ) | (1,955 | ) | (1,631 | ) | 6 | 20 |
Other Income, net – Other income increased in 2022 compared to 2021 driven by higher real estate income and net periodic pension benefits, partially offset by a $36 million gain from the sale of an investment in a technology company in 2021 and higher environmental remediation expense at non-operating sites. Real estate sales in 2022 included a $79 million gain from a land sale to the Illinois State Toll Highway Authority and a $35 million gain from a land sale to the Colorado Department of Transportation. Real estate sales in 2021 included a $50 million gain from a sale to the Colorado Department of Transportation.
Interest Expense – Interest expense increased in 2022 compared to 2021 due to an increased weighted-average debt level of $32.1 billion in 2022 from $28.3 billion in 2021, partially offset by a lower effective interest rate of 4.0% in 2022 compared to 4.1% in 2021.
Income Tax Expense – Income tax expense increased in 2022 compared to 2021 due to higher pre-tax income, partially offset by reductions of $95 million in deferred tax expense from Nebraska, Iowa, Arkansas, and Idaho reducing their corporate income tax rates. 2021 income tax expense included reductions of $32 million in deferred tax expense from Nebraska, Oklahoma, Idaho, Louisiana, and Arkansas reducing their corporate income tax rates. Our effective tax rates for 2022 and 2021 were 22.9% and 23.1%, respectively.
OTHER OPERATING/PERFORMANCE AND FINANCIAL STATISTICS
We report a number of key performance measures weekly to the STB. We provide this data on our website at www.up.com/investor/aar-stb_reports/index.htm.
Operating/Performance Statistics
Management continuously monitors these key operating metrics to evaluate our operational efficiency and asset utilization in striving to provide a consistent, reliable service product to our customers.
Railroad performance measures are included in the table below:
| % Change | % Change | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2022 v 2021 | 2021 v 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Gross ton-miles (GTMs) (billions) | 843.4 | 817.9 | 771.8 | 3 | % | 6 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue ton-miles (billions) | 420.8 | 411.3 | 385.0 | 2 | 7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Freight car velocity (daily miles per car) [a] | 191 | 203 | 221 | (6 | ) | (8 | ) | |||||||||||||||
| Average train speed (miles per hour) [a] | 23.8 | 24.6 | 25.9 | (3 | ) | (5 | ) | |||||||||||||||
| Average terminal dwell time (hours) [a] | 24.4 | 23.7 | 22.7 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Locomotive productivity (GTMs per horsepower day) | 125 | 133 | 137 | (6 | ) | (3 | ) | |||||||||||||||
| Train length (feet) | 9,329 | 9,334 | 8,798 | - | 6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Intermodal car trip plan compliance (%) [b] | 67 | 73 | 81 | (6 | ) | pts | (8 | ) | pts | |||||||||||||
| Manifest/Automotive car trip plan compliance (%) [b] | 59 | 63 | 71 | (4 | ) | pts | (8 | ) | pts | |||||||||||||
| Workforce productivity (car miles per employee) | 1,036 | 1,038 | 947 | - | 10 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total employees (average) | 30,717 | 29,905 | 30,960 | 3 | (3 | ) | ||||||||||||||||
| Operating ratio (%) | 60.1 | 57.2 | 59.9 | 2.9 | pts | (2.7 | ) | pts |
| [a] | As reported to the STB. |
|---|---|
| [b] | Methodology used to report (described below) is not comparable with the reporting to the STB under docket number EP 770. |
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Gross and Revenue Ton-Miles – Gross ton-miles are calculated by multiplying the weight of loaded and empty freight cars by the number of miles hauled. Revenue ton-miles are calculated by multiplying the weight of freight by the number of tariff miles. In 2022, gross ton-miles and revenue ton-miles increased 3% and 2%, respectively, compared to 2021, driven by a 2% increase in carloadings. Changes in commodity mix drove the variance in year-over-year increases between gross ton-miles, revenue ton-miles, and carloads (higher increases in coal, which are generally heavier).
Freight Car Velocity – Freight car velocity measures the average daily miles per car on our network. The two key drivers of this metric are the speed of the train between terminals (average train speed) and the time a rail car spends at the terminals (average terminal dwell time). Freight car velocity, average train speed, and average terminal dwell deteriorated compared to 2021 as excess operating car inventory levels and hiring challenges decreased network fluidity.
Locomotive Productivity – Locomotive productivity is gross ton-miles per average daily locomotive horsepower. Locomotive productivity decreased 6% in 2022 compared to 2021 driven by an increase in our average active fleet size as resources were deployed to alleviate network congestion and handle increased volume compared to 2021.
Train Length – Train length is the average maximum train length on a route measured in feet. Our train length remained relatively flat compared to 2021 due to lower international intermodal shipments and efforts to recover the network offsetting productivity initiatives.
Car Trip Plan Compliance – Car trip plan compliance is the percentage of cars delivered on time in accordance with our original trip plan. Our network trip plan compliance is broken into the intermodal and manifest/automotive products. Intermodal car trip plan compliance and manifest/automotive car trip plan compliance deteriorated in 2022 compared to 2021 because of crew shortages.
Workforce Productivity – Workforce productivity is average daily car miles per employee. Workforce productivity decreased slightly in 2022, as average daily car miles increased 3% and employees increased 3% compared to 2021. The 3% increase in employee levels was driven by an increase in train, engine, and yard employees to address volume increases and operational inefficiencies due to crew shortages.
Operating Ratio – Operating ratio is our operating expenses reflected as a percentage of operating revenues. Our operating ratio of 60.1% deteriorated 2.9 points compared to 2021 driven by operational inefficiencies, inflation, a one-time charge for the labor agreements reached with our labor unions (See Labor Agreements in Other Matters in this Item 7 of Part II), higher fuel prices, and other cost increases, partially offset by core pricing gains, mix of traffic, and lower weather-related expenses.
Return on Average Common Shareholders’ Equity
| Millions, Except Percentages | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | $ | 6,998 | $ | 6,523 | $ | 5,349 | ||||||
| Average equity | $ | 13,162 | $ | 15,560 | $ | 17,543 | ||||||
| Return on average common shareholders' equity | 53.2 | % | 41.9 | % | 30.5 | % |
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Return on Invested Capital as Adjusted (ROIC)
| Millions, Except Percentages | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | $ | 6,998 | $ | 6,523 | $ | 5,349 | ||||||
| Interest expense | 1,271 | 1,157 | 1,141 | |||||||||
| Interest on average operating lease liabilities | 56 | 54 | 64 | |||||||||
| Taxes on interest | (304 | ) | (280 | ) | (282 | ) | ||||||
| Net operating profit after taxes as adjusted | $ | 8,021 | $ | 7,454 | $ | 6,272 | ||||||
| Average equity | $ | 13,162 | $ | 15,560 | $ | 17,543 | ||||||
| Average debt | 31,528 | 28,229 | 25,965 | |||||||||
| Average operating lease liabilities | 1,695 | 1,682 | 1,719 | |||||||||
| Average invested capital as adjusted | $ | 46,385 | $ | 45,471 | $ | 45,227 | ||||||
| Return on invested capital as adjusted | 17.3 | % | 16.4 | % | 13.9 | % |
ROIC is considered a non-GAAP financial measure by SEC Regulation G and Item 10 of SEC Regulation S-K and may not be defined and calculated by other companies in the same manner. We believe this measure is important to management and investors in evaluating the efficiency and effectiveness of our long-term capital investments. In addition, we currently use ROIC as a performance criterion in determining certain elements of equity compensation for our executives. ROIC should be considered in addition to, rather than as a substitute for, other information provided in accordance with GAAP. The most comparable GAAP measure is return on average common shareholders’ equity. The tables above provide a reconciliation from return on average common shareholders’ equity to ROIC. At December 31, 2022, 2021, and 2020, the incremental borrowing rate on operating leases was 3.3%, 3.2%, and 3.7%, respectively.
Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA
| Millions, Except Ratios | Dec. 31, | Dec. 31, | Dec. 31, | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| for the Twelve Months Ended | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||||
| Net income | $ | 6,998 | $ | 6,523 | $ | 5,349 | ||||||
| Add: | ||||||||||||
| Income tax expense | 2,074 | 1,955 | 1,631 | |||||||||
| Depreciation | 2,246 | 2,208 | 2,210 | |||||||||
| Interest expense | 1,271 | 1,157 | 1,141 | |||||||||
| EBITDA | $ | 12,589 | $ | 11,843 | $ | 10,331 | ||||||
| Adjustments: | ||||||||||||
| Other income, net | (426 | ) | (297 | ) | (287 | ) | ||||||
| Interest on operating lease liabilities | 54 | 56 | 59 | |||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA | $ | 12,217 | $ | 11,602 | $ | 10,103 | ||||||
| Debt | $ | 33,326 | $ | 29,729 | $ | 26,729 | ||||||
| Operating lease liabilities | 1,631 | 1,759 | 1,604 | |||||||||
| Unfunded pension and OPEB, net of tax cost of $0, $0, and $195 [a] | - | - | 637 | |||||||||
| Adjusted debt | $ | 34,957 | $ | 31,488 | $ | 28,970 | ||||||
| Adjusted debt / adjusted EBITDA | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Column 1 | Column 2 |
|---|---|
| [a] | Prior periods were recast to conform to the current year presentation, which removes the impact of pension and OPEB (other postretirement benefits) when the net amount represents a funded amount. |
Adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and adjustments for other income and interest on present value of operating leases) is considered a non-GAAP financial measure by SEC Regulation G and Item 10 of SEC Regulation S-K and may not be defined and calculated by other companies in the same manner. We believe this measure is important to management and investors in evaluating the Company’s ability to sustain given debt levels (including leases) with the cash generated from operations. In addition, a comparable measure is used by rating agencies when reviewing the Company’s credit rating. Adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA should be considered in addition to, rather than as a substitute for, net income. The table above provides a reconciliation from net income to adjusted EBITDA and debt to adjusted debt. At December 31, 2022, 2021, and 2020, the incremental borrowing rate on operating leases was 3.3%, 3.2%, and 3.7%, respectively.
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LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
We are continually evaluating our financial condition and liquidity. We analyze a wide range of economic scenarios and the impact on our ability to generate cash. These analyses inform our liquidity plans and activities outlined below and indicate we have sufficient borrowing capacity to sustain an extended period of lower volumes.
At both December 31, 2022 and 2021, we had a working capital deficit due to upcoming debt maturities. It is not unusual for us to have a working capital deficit, and we believe it is not an indication of a lack of liquidity. We also maintain adequate resources, including our credit facility and, when necessary, access the capital markets to meet foreseeable cash requirements.
During 2022, we generated $9.4 billion of cash provided by operating activities, and issued $5.4 billion of long-term debt. We have been, and we expect to continue to be, in compliance with our debt covenants. We increased the dividend once during 2022 paying out $3.2 billion and repurchased shares totaling $6.3 billion, including the completion of our $2.2 billion accelerated share repurchase programs entered into on February 17, 2022.
Our principal sources of liquidity include cash and cash equivalents, our Receivables Facility, our revolving credit facility, as well as the availability of commercial paper and other sources of financing through the capital markets. On December 31, 2022, we had $973 million of cash and cash equivalents, $2.0 billion of committed credit available under our revolving credit facility, and up to $700 million undrawn on the Receivables Facility. As of December 31, 2022, none of the revolving credit facility was drawn, and we did not draw on our revolving credit facility at any time during 2022. At December 31, 2022, we had $100 million of the Receivables Facility drawn, $200 million of commercial paper, and a $100 million term loan outstanding. Our access to the Receivables Facility may be reduced or restricted if our bond ratings fall to certain levels below investment grade. If our bond rating were to deteriorate, it could have an adverse impact on our liquidity. Access to commercial paper as well as other capital market financing is dependent on market conditions. Deterioration of our operating results or financial condition due to internal or external factors could negatively impact our ability to access capital markets as a source of liquidity. Access to liquidity through the capital markets is also dependent on our financial stability. We expect that we will continue to have access to liquidity through any or all the following sources or activities: (a) increasing the utilization of our Receivables Facility, (b) issuing commercial paper, (c) entering into bank loans, outside of our revolving credit facility, or (iv) issuing bonds or other debt securities to public or private investors based on our assessment of the current condition of the credit markets. The Company’s $2.0 billion revolving credit facility is intended to support the issuance of commercial paper by UPC and also serves as an additional source of liquidity to fund short-term needs. The Company currently does not intend to make any borrowings under this facility.
As described in the notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements and as referenced in the table below, we have contractual obligations that may affect our financial condition. Based on our assessment of the underlying provisions and circumstances of our contractual obligations, other than the risks that we and other similarly situated companies face with respect to the condition of the capital markets (as described in Item 1A of Part II of this report), as of the date of this filing, there is no known trend, demand, commitment, event, or uncertainty that is reasonably likely to occur that would have a material adverse effect on our consolidated results of operations, financial condition, or liquidity. In addition, our commercial obligations, financings, and commitments are customary transactions that are like those of other comparable corporations, particularly within the transportation industry.
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The following table identifies material obligations as of December 31, 2022:
| Payments Due by December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contractual Obligations | After | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Millions | Total | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2027 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Debt [a] | $ | 61,664 | $ | 2,837 | $ | 2,562 | $ | 2,642 | $ | 2,081 | 2,323 | $ | 49,219 | ||||||||||||||
| Purchase obligations [b] | 3,241 | 920 | 818 | 822 | 275 | 180 | 226 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Operating leases [c] | 1,803 | 335 | 318 | 321 | 248 | 188 | 393 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Other post retirement benefits [d] | 396 | 45 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 39 | 192 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Finance lease obligations [e] | 259 | 76 | 63 | 44 | 35 | 30 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Total contractual obligations | $ | 67,363 | $ | 4,213 | $ | 3,801 | $ | 3,869 | $ | 2,679 | $ | 2,760 | $ | 50,041 |
| [a] | Excludes finance lease obligations of $234 million as well as unamortized discount and deferred issuance costs of ($1,775) million. Includes an interest component of $26,797 million. |
|---|---|
| [b] | Purchase obligations include locomotive maintenance contracts; purchase commitments for fuel purchases, ties, ballast, and rail; and agreements to purchase other goods and services. |
| [c] | Includes leases for locomotives, freight cars, other equipment, and real estate. Includes an interest component of $172 million. |
| [d] | Includes estimated other post retirement, medical, and life insurance payments, and payments made under the unfunded pension plan for the next ten years. |
| [e] | Represents total obligations, including interest component of $25 million. |
| Cash Flows | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millions | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||||
| Cash provided by operating activities | $ | 9,362 | $ | 9,032 | $ | 8,540 | ||||||
| Cash used in investing activities | (3,471 | ) | (2,709 | ) | (2,676 | ) | ||||||
| Cash used in financing activities | (5,887 | ) | (7,158 | ) | (4,902 | ) | ||||||
| Net change in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash | $ | 4 | $ | (835 | ) | $ | 962 |
Operating Activities
Cash provided by operating activities increased in 2022 compared to 2021 due primarily to an increase in net income.
Cash flow conversion is defined as cash provided by operating activities less cash used in capital investments as a ratio of net income. Cash flow conversion rate is not considered a financial measure under GAAP by SEC Regulation G and Item 10 of SEC Regulation S-K and may not be defined and calculated by other companies in the same manner. We believe cash flow conversion rate is important to management and investors in evaluating our financial performance and measures our ability to generate cash without additional external financing. Cash flow conversion rate should be considered in addition to, rather than as a substitute for, cash provided by operating activities. The following table reconciles cash provided by operating activities (GAAP measure) to cash flow conversion rate (non-GAAP measure):
| Millions, | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| For the Year Ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||||
| Cash provided by operating activities | $ | 9,362 | $ | 9,032 | $ | 8,540 | ||||||
| Cash used in capital investments | (3,620 | ) | (2,936 | ) | (2,927 | ) | ||||||
| Total (a) | 5,742 | 6,096 | 5,613 | |||||||||
| Net income (b) | 6,998 | 6,523 | 5,349 | |||||||||
| Cash flow conversion rate (a/b) | 82 | % | 93 | % | 105 | % |
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Investing Activities
Cash used in investing activities in 2022 increased compared to 2021 primarily driven by increased freight car and locomotive capital investments as we modernize our locomotives to move more freight efficiently and sustainably across our network.
The following tables detail cash capital investments and track statistics for the years ended December 31:
| Millions | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ties | $ | 544 | $ | 443 | $ | 507 | |||||
| Rail and other track material | 437 | 507 | 471 | ||||||||
| Ballast | 216 | 215 | 225 | ||||||||
| Other [a] | 693 | 760 | 629 | ||||||||
| Total road infrastructure replacements | 1,890 | 1,925 | 1,832 | ||||||||
| Line expansion and other capacity projects | 276 | 284 | 332 | ||||||||
| Commercial facilities | 308 | 243 | 171 | ||||||||
| Total capacity and commercial facilities | 584 | 527 | 503 | ||||||||
| Locomotives and freight cars [b] | 800 | 322 | 269 | ||||||||
| Technology and other | 346 | 162 | 323 | ||||||||
| Total cash capital investments | $ | 3,620 | $ | 2,936 | $ | 2,927 |
| [a] | Other includes bridges and tunnels, signals, other road assets, and road work equipment. |
|---|---|
| [b] | Locomotives and freight cars include early lease buyouts of $70 million, $34 million, and $38 million in 2022, 2021, and 2020, respectively. |
| 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Track miles of rail replaced | 542 | 502 | 468 | ||||||||
| Track miles of rail capacity expansion | 44 | 70 | 83 | ||||||||
| New ties installed (thousands) | 3,712 | 4,058 | 4,671 | ||||||||
| Miles of track surfaced | 9,502 | 10,441 | 10,414 |
Capital Plan – In 2023, we expect our capital plan to be approximately $3.6 billion, up 6% from 2022 as we make investments to support our growth strategy. We will continue to harden our infrastructure, replace older assets, and improve the safety and resiliency of the network. In addition, the plan includes investments in growth-related projects to drive more carloads to the network, certain ramps to efficiently handle volumes from new and existing intermodal customers, continuous modernization of our locomotive fleet, and projects intended to improve operational efficiency. The capital plan may be revised if business conditions warrant or if new laws or regulations affect our ability to generate sufficient returns on these investments.
Financing Activities
Cash used in financing activities decreased in 2022 compared to 2021 driven by increased debt issuances and a decrease in share repurchases, partially offset by an increase in the repayment of debt and higher dividend payments.
See Note 14 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8, for a description of all our outstanding financing arrangements and significant new borrowings, and Note 18 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8, for a description of our share repurchase programs.
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OTHER MATTERS
Inflation – For capital-intensive companies, inflation significantly increases asset replacement costs for long-lived assets. As a result, assuming that we replace all operating assets at current price levels, depreciation charges (on an inflation-adjusted basis) would be substantially greater than historically reported amounts.
Sensitivity Analyses – The sensitivity analyses that follow illustrate the economic effect that hypothetical changes in interest and tax rates could have on our results of operations and financial condition. These hypothetical changes do not consider other factors that could impact actual results.
Interest Rates – At December 31, 2022, we had variable-rate debt representing approximately 1.2% of our total debt. If variable interest rates average one percentage point higher in 2023 than our December 31, 2022, variable rate, which was approximately 4.4%, our annual interest expense would increase by approximately $4.0 million. This amount was determined by considering the impact of the hypothetical interest rate on the balances of our variable-rate debt at December 31, 2022.
Market risk for fixed-rate debt is estimated as the potential increase in fair value resulting from a hypothetical one percentage point decrease in interest rates as of December 31, 2022, and totals an increase of approximately $3.5 billion to the fair value of our debt at December 31, 2022. We estimated the fair values of our fixed-rate debt by considering the impact of the hypothetical interest rates on quoted market prices and current borrowing rates.
Tax Rates – Our deferred tax assets and liabilities are measured based on current tax law. Future tax legislation, such as a change in the federal corporate tax rate, could have a material impact on our financial condition, results of operations, or liquidity. For example, a future, permanent 1% increase in our federal income tax rate would increase our deferred tax liability by approximately $500 million. Similarly, a future, permanent 1% decrease in our federal income tax rate would decrease our deferred tax liability by approximately $500 million.
Accounting Pronouncements – See Note 3 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8.
Asserted and Unasserted Claims – See Note 17 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8.
Indemnities – See Note 17 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8.
Climate Change – Climate change could have an adverse impact on our operations and financial performance (see Risk Factors under Item 1A of this report), although we are currently unable to predict the manner or severity of such impact. We released our Climate Action Plan, which outlines the steps we are taking to reduce our environmental impact. This plan aligns with our corporate strategy: Serve (improve operational efficiency and minimize fuel consumption), Grow (offer sustainable supply chain solutions), Win (decarbonize our footprint and the environment) – Together (engage our stakeholders and align interests). We continue to take steps and explore opportunities to reduce our operational impact on the environment, including increased usage of renewable fuels, investments in alternative fuel technologies, using training programs and technology to reduce fuel consumption, and changing our operations to increase fuel efficiency (see "Sustainable Future" in the Operations section in Item 1 of this report).
Labor Agreements – Pursuant to the RLA, our collective bargaining agreements are subject to modification every five years. Existing agreements remain in effect until new agreements are ratified or until the RLA procedures are exhausted. The RLA procedures include mediation, potential arbitration, cooling-off periods, and the possibility of Presidential Emergency Boards and Congressional intervention. The round of negotiations that began on January 1, 2020, related to years 2020-2024 was concluded. In June 2022, the National Mediation Board released the parties from mediation, which initiated the first 30-day cooling-off period. Prior to the end of the first cooling-off period, the Biden administration appointed Presidential Emergency Board 250 (PEB) to resolve the parties' disputes. The PEB issued a report with its recommendations on August 16, 2022, initiating the second 30-day cooling-off period. Over the second cooling-off period, tentative agreements were reached with all the labor unions, averting a potential work stoppage. Nine out of thirteen agreements were ratified. For the remaining four unions that had not previously ratified, the agreements were imposed by legislation on December 2, 2022.
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CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
Our Consolidated Financial Statements have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. The preparation of these financial statements requires estimation and judgment that affect the reported amounts of revenues, expenses, assets, and liabilities. We base our estimates on historical experience and on various other assumptions that we believe are reasonable under the circumstances. The results form the basis for making judgments about the carrying values of assets and liabilities that are not readily apparent from other sources. The following critical accounting estimates are a subset of our significant accounting policies described in Note 2 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8. These critical accounting estimates affect significant areas of our financial statements and involve judgment and estimates. If these estimates differ significantly from actual results, the impact on our Consolidated Financial Statements may be material.
Personal Injury – See Note 17 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8, and "We May Be Subject to Various Claims and Lawsuits That Could Result in Significant Expenditures" in the Risk Factors, Item 1A.
Our personal injury liability is subject to uncertainty due to unasserted claims, timing and outcome of claims, and evolving trends in litigation. There were no material changes to the assumptions used in the latest actuarial analysis.
Our personal injury liability balance and claims activity was as follows:
| 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ending liability balance at December 31 (millions) | $ | 361 | $ | 325 | $ | 270 | ||||||
| Open claims, beginning balance | 2,027 | 1,897 | 1,985 | |||||||||
| New claims | 2,747 | 2,719 | 2,577 | |||||||||
| Settled or dismissed claims | (2,738 | ) | (2,589 | ) | (2,665 | ) | ||||||
| Open claims, ending balance at December 31 | 2,036 | 2,027 | 1,897 |
Environmental Costs – See Note 17 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8; "We Are Subject to Significant Environmental Laws and Regulations" in the Risk Factors, Item 1A; and Environmental Matters in the Legal Proceedings, Item 3.
Our environmental liability is subject to several factors such as type of remediation, nature and volume of contaminate, and number and financial viability of other potentially responsible parties, as well as uncertainty due to unknown alleged contamination, evolving trends in remediation techniques and final remedies, and changes in laws and regulations.
Our environmental liability balance and site activity was as follows:
| 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ending liability balance at December 31 (millions) | $ | 253 | $ | 243 | $ | 233 | ||||||
| Open sites, beginning balance | 376 | 373 | 360 | |||||||||
| New sites | 69 | 105 | 96 | |||||||||
| Closed sites | (92 | ) | (102 | ) | (83 | ) | ||||||
| Open sites, ending balance at December 31 | 353 | 376 | 373 |
Property and Depreciation – See Note 11 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8.
Assets purchased or constructed throughout the year are capitalized if they meet applicable minimum units of property.
Estimated service lives of depreciable railroad property may vary over time due to changes in physical use, technology, asset strategies, and other factors that will have an impact on the retirement profiles of our assets. We are not aware of any specific factors that are reasonably likely to significantly change the estimated service lives of our assets. Actual use and retirement of our assets may vary from our current estimates, which would impact the amount of depreciation expense recognized in future periods.
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Changes in estimated useful lives of our assets due to the results of our depreciation studies could significantly impact future periods’ depreciation expense and have a material impact on our Consolidated Financial Statements. If the estimated useful lives of all depreciable assets were increased by one year, annual depreciation expense would decrease by approximately $69 million. If the estimated useful lives of all depreciable assets were decreased by one year, annual depreciation expense would increase by approximately $73 million. We are projecting an increase in our depreciation expense of approximately 3% in 2023 versus 2022. This is driven by an increase in our projected depreciable asset base.
During the last three fiscal years, no gains or losses were recognized due to the retirement of depreciable railroad properties.
Pension Plans – See Note 5 to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Item 8.
The critical assumptions used to measure pension obligations and expenses are the discount rates and expected rate of return on pension assets.
We evaluate our critical assumptions at least annually, and selected assumptions are based on the following factors:
| ● | We measure the service cost and interest cost components of our net periodic pension benefit/cost by using individual spot rates matched with separate cash flows for each future year. Discount rates are based on a Mercer yield curve of high-quality corporate bonds (rated AA by a recognized rating agency). |
|---|---|
| ● | Expected return on plan assets is based on our asset allocation mix and our historical return, taking into consideration current and expected market conditions. |
The following tables present the key assumptions used to measure net periodic pension benefit/cost for 2023 and the estimated impact on 2023 net periodic pension benefit/cost relative to a change in those assumptions:
| Assumptions | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate for benefit obligations | 5.21 | % | ||
| Discount rate for interest on benefit obligations | 5.14 | % | ||
| Discount rate for service cost | 5.18 | % | ||
| Discount rate for interest on service cost | 5.21 | % | ||
| Expected return on plan assets | 5.25 | % |
| Sensitivities | Increase in Expense | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Millions | Pension | ||
| 0.25% decrease in discount rates | $ | 15 | |
| 0.25% decrease in expected return on plan assets | $ | 12 |
The following table presents the net periodic pension benefit/cost for the years ended December 31:
| Est. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millions | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||||||
| Net periodic pension (benefit)/cost | $ | (6 | ) | $ | 9 | $ | 85 | $ | 50 |
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CAUTIONARY INFORMATION
Certain statements in this report, and statements in other reports or information filed or to be filed with the SEC (as well as information included in oral statements or other written statements made or to be made by us), are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These forward-looking statements and information include, without limitation, statements in the Chairman’s letter preceding Part I; statements regarding planned capital expenditures under the caption “2023 Capital Plan” in Item 2 of Part I; and statements and information set forth under the captions “2023 Outlook”; “Liquidity and Capital Resources” in Item 7 of Part II regarding our capital plan, share repurchase programs, contractual obligations, "Pension Benefits", and "Other Matters" in this Item 7 of Part II. Forward-looking statements and information also include any other statements or information in this report (including information incorporated herein by reference) regarding: potential impacts of public health crises, including the outbreak of pandemic or contagious disease, such as COVID; the Russian Ukraine conflict on our business operations, financial results, liquidity, and financial position, and on the world economy (including our customers, employees, and supply chains), including as a result of fluctuations in volume and carloadings; closing of customer manufacturing, distribution or production facilities; expectations as to operational or service improvements; expectations as to hiring challenges; availability of employees; expectations regarding the effectiveness of steps taken or to be taken to improve operations, service, infrastructure improvements, and transportation plan modifications (including those discussed in response to increased traffic); expectations as to cost savings, revenue growth, and earnings; the time by which goals, targets, or objectives will be achieved; projections, predictions, expectations, estimates, or forecasts as to our business, financial, and operational results, future economic performance, and general economic conditions; proposed new products and services; estimates of costs relating to environmental remediation and restoration; estimates and expectations regarding tax matters; expectations that claims, litigation, environmental costs, commitments, contingent liabilities, labor negotiations or agreements, cyber-attacks or other matters will not have a material adverse effect on our consolidated results of operations, financial condition, or liquidity and any other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements may be identified by their use of forward-looking terminology, such as “believes,” “expects,” “may,” “should,” “would,” “will,” “intends,” “plans,” “estimates,” “anticipates,” “projects” and similar words, phrases, or expressions.
Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance, results or outcomes, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance, results or outcomes will be achieved. Forward-looking statements and information are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statements and information. Forward-looking statements and information reflect the good faith consideration by management of currently available information, and may be based on underlying assumptions believed to be reasonable under the circumstances. However, such information and assumptions (and, therefore, such forward-looking statements and information) are or may be subject to variables or unknown or unforeseeable events or circumstances that management has little or no influence or control, and many of these risks and uncertainties are currently amplified by and may continue to be amplified by, or in the future may be amplified by, among other things, macroeconomic conditions. The Risk Factors in Item 1A of this report could affect our future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements or information. To the extent circumstances require or we deem it otherwise necessary, we will update or amend these risk factors in a Form 10-Q, Form 8-K, or subsequent Form 10-K. All forward-looking statements are qualified by, and should be read in conjunction with, these Risk Factors.
Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date the statement was made. We assume no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions, or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If we do update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that we will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements.